leelaw
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FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:57 am

FI 1/17/06:

Fleet will be partially replaced by ultra-large airliners.

"The reality is not all our 747-400s are going to be replaced by smaller widebodies," Says BA director of planning Robert Boyle. "As there isn't really the option to replace them with same-size aircraft, we'll look at larger ones like the A380 and 747-8," he adds.

"...We'll be getting in to the "zone" to decide on a replacement in the next year or so," he says, ruling out placing an order for both types..."

[Edited 2006-01-16 20:21:30]
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 4:07 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
"...We'll be getting in to the "zone" to decide on a replacement in the next year or so," he says, ruling out placing an order for both types..."

Gahhh... why has modern business succumb to such cheap cliché?  yuck 

They're about to buy billions of dollars worth of aircraft not max-out on the bench press.

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
"As there isn't really the option to replace them with same-size aircraft, we'll look at larger ones like the A380 and 747-8," he adds.

This will be a huge event, the first evaluation of the passenger 747-8 versus the A388.
 
gigneil
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 4:09 am

I don't think he meant "get in the zone".

I think he meant the "zone" as in the appropriate timeframe.

N
 
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scbriml
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 4:18 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
This will be a huge event, the first evaluation of the passenger 747-8 versus the A388.

If this is the first, and it won't happen till "the next year or so", then Boeing's chances of selling any pax 748s this year look slim!  wink 
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leelaw
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:14 am

Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
MarshalN
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:17 am

And I think the same can be said of any airlines with a substantial fleet of 744s that have not placed an order for the A380 yet. JL, CX, etc all will have to make that evaluation at some point, probably in the next two years (although it's hard seeing a Japanese airline order anything other than Boeing...). It'll be interesting times....
 
Glom
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:57 am

Interesting that they mentioned the narrowbodies. Could they go for 737NG to replace their 737Classics at LGW?

Pro:

Diversified fleet meaning they can more credibly play both manufacturers against each other for additional orders.

If the are specifically thinking of Gatwick, then 737NG would be easier to introduce since they are already operating 737s there.

Con:

Fleet wide commonality meaning they can move aircraft around more easily as required.

They already have options for A320s so it will be probably be cheaper.
 
WAH64D
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:11 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 6):
Interesting that they mentioned the narrowbodies. Could they go for 737NG to replace their 737Classics at LGW?

Pro:

Diversified fleet meaning they can more credibly play both manufacturers against each other for additional orders.

If the are specifically thinking of Gatwick, then 737NG would be easier to introduce since they are already operating 737s there.

Con:

Fleet wide commonality meaning they can move aircraft around more easily as required.

They already have options for A320s so it will be probably be cheaper.

All of the B733/4/5s are being replaced by A320 series. B752 to be replaced by A321.

The big question is whether BA forsee the demand for an aircraft the size of the A380. Although I would love to see otherwise, I think the B744 replacements will be B772LR, B773 and B748. The only thing I can think of that would attract BA to the A380 is the availability of Rolls Royce powerplants and in this day and age of cut-throat competitiveness I fear this won't be much of an issue.

Stranger things have happened though and with the right discounts and the top brass at BA not wanting to lose face at home to Virgin, we may see the A380 in Speedbird colours at some point.
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scotron11
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:24 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):

I think he meant the "zone" as in the appropriate timeframe.

Their "9 month review" of their future fleet requirement is almost up, so there maybe some orders this year, sooner than thought.

Pension issues aside, and compared to a lot of other airlines, their balance sheet doesn't look too bad. Additionally, any orders they place now won't be delivered for a few years yet, well after the move into T5.

Is the RR factor a "big issue" with BA? A ton of folk here think it is. If GE only have a moratorium of 2 years exclusivity, then a RR powered 747-8 is a possibility, no?
 
Glom
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:36 am

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 8):
If GE only have a moratorium of 2 years exclusivity, then a RR powered 747-8 is a possibility, no?

GE have total exclusivity on the 747-8. You're thinking of the A350, where RR can start selling after two years. But the competitor to that is the 787 which comes with RR out of the box.
 
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scbriml
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:39 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 9):
where RR can start selling after two years

I read somewhere that it was 150 frames. Can't remember where though.
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RayChuang
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:42 am

I think BA will end up ordering the 747-8 over the A380-800.

The reason is simple: BA controls a large fraction of the landing slots at LHR and as such is not under pressure to fly the largest planes possible on all international routes. Take for example the LHR-SFO route--BA could easily fly two 747-400's on this route if the demand is there without affecting landing slot allocations.
 
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keesje
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:44 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 7):
Stranger things have happened though and with the right discounts and the top brass at BA not wanting to lose face at home to Virgin, we may see the A380 in Speedbird colours at some point.

Airbus is fully booked for years with more then 230 orders and options. Discount time is simply over. Recently BA´s Walsh seemed pretty irritated about the prices info he got from Airbus.

Chris Avery, aviation analyst at JP Morgan, said: "Boeing's enthusiasm to have a passenger customer for the 747 Advanced might result in significant discounts for BA." http://www.expat.telegraph.co.uk/mon...l?xml=/money/2005/11/15/cnba15.xml

I can only image how much Boeing would like BA to be the 747-8i launch customer. BA will try anyway how deep Boeing is willing to in terms of price.

In 2006 probably VS, EK, SQ and QF will have huge A380 Business & First Cabin bill boards all over the City.

The A380 will be certified by authorities this year.

Performance uncertainties will be smaller with any additional flight.

Dozens of airlines pilots have been at the controls allready.

The pressure for BA is growing not to be the last in line & get blamed for that later on.
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Glom
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:45 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 10):
I read somewhere that it was 150 frames. Can't remember where though.

Why kind of delay does that entail? The two year thing was kind of stupid though because once airlines knew that an RR offering would be available, if they really wanted it, they could easily have waited a little bit. The deal simply allows GE to get first delivery not give it a leg up in orders.
 
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PM
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:51 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 7):
B752 to be replaced by A321.

Hardly on a one-for-one basis. And the small A321 fleet was ordered long after the 757s started to leave.

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 7):
The only thing I can think of that would attract BA to the A380 is the availability of Rolls Royce powerplants

Do you really think that kind of nationalistic sentiment cuts much ice these days? The current CEO is Irish and the previous one was Australian. I hope BA make decisions on cold-blooded commercial criteria rather than some notional sense of nationalistic loyalty. (Their competitors certainly do!)

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 10):
I read somewhere that it [RR's 'right' to sell engines on the A350] was 150 frames. Can't remember where though.

It was widely quoted in FLIGHT and elsewhere but the exact terms remain opaque. Does it mean RR can't sell any till GE have sold 150? Does it mean they can't deliver any? Neither case makes any sense. If GE had sold, say, 140 but Emirates wanted RR on their 50 A350s would Airbus so no?! Reading between the lines, RR seems to have 'bought' part of GE's 150 (or whatever) preferred sales. Being the first engine available, GE have already scooped 100+ sales with Qatar, TAM, US and so on. Look for a straight fight between GE and RR from now on.
 
N79969
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:58 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Airbus is fully booked for years with more then 230 orders and options. Discount time is simply over. Recently BA´s Walsh seemed pretty irritated about the prices info he got from Airbus.

Chris Avery, aviation analyst at JP Morgan, said: "Boeing's enthusiasm to have a passenger customer for the 747 Advanced might result in significant discounts for BA." http://www.expat.telegraph.co.uk/mon...l?xml=/money/2005/11/15/cnba15.xml

I can only image how much Boeing would like BA to be the 747-8i launch customer. BA will try anyway how deep Boeing is willing to in terms of price.

In 2006 probably VS, EK, SQ and QF will have huge A380 Business & First Cabin bill boards all over the City.

The A380 will be certified by authorities this year.

Performance uncertainties will be smaller with any additional flight.

Dozens of airlines pilots have been at the controls allready.

The pressure for BA is growing not to be the last in line & get blamed for that later on.

You need to learn to separate your fantasy from reality. It is nice how you selectively quoted and misrepresented the article's point entirely. In fact, the CEO of BA said:

"Mr Walsh also ruled out any likely interest in the Airbus A380 superjumbo. "We have no plans to introduce the A380," he said. "I'm pleased we haven't got one ordered. It's a big aircraft and there's a big question mark beside it."

He expressed more interest in the soon-to-be launched Boeing 747 Advanced aircraft, a stretched version of the 747-400, which raises the number of seats from 416 to 450."

He is "pleased" not to have an order...Clearly a sign that an order must be imminent then, right?

Another misrepresentation is that Boeing is somehow desparate to get BA and that Airbus is king of the hill with the A380. While I am sure that Boeing would be very happy to get BA as a launch customer and would give them generous discounts befitting such a blue-chip customer, Airbus has a much greater need to sell A380s because of the $15 billion in R&D that needs amortizing.

I think you overstated the number of A380s by 90 or so.

As far as Airbus commanding top dollar/euro for the A380, the evidence is non-existent. In fact, they are in need of a new order soon.

[Edited 2006-01-17 00:00:29]
 
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keesje
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 8:41 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 15):
He is "pleased" not to have an order...Clearly a sign that an order must be imminent then, right?

No, he shows Airbus he doesn´t really need them, like Airbus has been giving sign´s they don´t need BA. We are talking a multi billion poker game here. And both know what´s gonna happen sooner or later.

If one supplier becomes arrogant BA have tea with the other site & make sure it is seen.

If Walsh say he isn´t in a hurry on the A380, Leahy make a few comments a few days later, somewhere, on the shrinking number of A380 slots still open before 2012.

"I think you overstated the number of A380s by 90 or so"

229 orders & options are listed everywhere.

Airbus say they have some more options. "We have 159 firm orders and I have got about 100 options that are blocking delivery slots, most of them over the next five years" John Leahy, Airbus
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4433030.stm

[Edited 2006-01-17 00:48:44]
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N79969
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 8:46 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
No, he shows Airbus he doesn�t really need them, like Airbus has been giving sign�s they don�t need BA. We are talking a multi billion poker game here. And both know what�s gonna happen sooner or later.

If one supplier becomes arrogant BA have tea with the other site & make sure it is seen.

If Walsh say he isn�t in a hurry on the A380, Leahy make a few comments a few days later, somewhere, on the shrinking number of A380 slots still open before 2012.

Ok...you keep thinking that...enjoy. If BA eventually buys the A380, they will get a sweet deal...if they the 747-8 they will get a sweet deal.
 
N1120A
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 8:57 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 7):
B752 to be replaced by A321.

They have kept the 13 they have specifically for heavy lift IIRC. I don't see them going for a while
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Glom
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 9:40 am

Quoting PM (Reply 14):
Do you really think that kind of nationalistic sentiment cuts much ice these days?

It may have more to do with the fact they are a majority RR operator.
 
abba
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 1:31 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 7):
The big question is whether BA forsee the demand for an aircraft the size of the A380.

BA has between 2-3 747s running out of HKG within an hour. Usually full to the brim. I wouldn't be surprised if they could run 380s to Singapore as well and perhaps also Bangkok. China will not be long away before 380s could also be run there.

Quoting N79969 (Reply 15):
He is "pleased" not to have an order...Clearly a sign that an order must be imminent then, right?

What else would you expect him to say at this point - be an order imminent or not?

Abba
 
jacobin777
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 1:48 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 7):
The only thing I can think of that would attract BA to the A380 is the availability of Rolls Royce powerplants and in this day and age of cut-throat competitiveness I fear this won't be much of an issue.



Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 8):
Is the RR factor a "big issue" with BA? A ton of folk here think it is. If GE only have a moratorium of 2 years exclusivity, then a RR powered 747-8 is a possibility, no?

I had started a thread last December which basically got no hits or responses (a couple)....this thing could possibly blow the whole "RR" stuff out of the water....basically its a 10 year BA deal with General Electric....

GE Signs $2.3B Deal With British Airways (Jacobin777-Dec. 08)

not only that, a few RR carriers such as CX already have shown that the engine choice isn't completely important on what kind of fleet to purchase....

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 11):
Take for example the LHR-SFO route--BA could easily fly two 747-400's on this route if the demand is there without affecting landing slot allocations.

they already run 2-daily 747-400 flights to SFO... Smile


"The 747 replacement evaluation, which is one of several campaigns that the airline is poised to begin in the near term for short- and long-haul aircraft, will also include the Airbus A340-600 and 777-300/300ER, says Boyle."

this one is going 777's way....GE engines or not...

"Meanwhile, Boyle says the airline is studying the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 as replacements for its 757/767 fleet, and that an A320 versus 737 competition is on the horizon to replace the ageing fleet of 737 Classics based at London Gatwick."

I think they'll go with the Airbus A319/A320 on this...but the 787 versus A350 will be interesting and I think the 787 will win out on this one...

in the end, I think BA will get a dozen or so A380's....but nothing more than that...I do think they will also get a bunch of 747-8I's....
"Up the Irons!"
 
N79969
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 1:58 pm

Quoting Abba (Reply 20):
Quoting N79969 (Reply 15):
He is "pleased" not to have an order...Clearly a sign that an order must be imminent then, right?

What else would you expect him to say at this point - be an order imminent or not?

Abba

I would expect something other than near-scathing skepticism of the A380. He kind went out of his way to downplay the prospect of BA A380s. While he did not categorically rule out the A380, he is clearly not sanguine about it at this juncture.
 
N79969
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 2:07 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
"I think you overstated the number of A380s by 90 or so"

229 orders & options are listed everywhere.

Airbus say they have some more options. "We have 159 firm orders and I have got about 100 options that are blocking delivery slots, most of them over the next five years" John Leahy, Airbus

They have 159 orders. You overstated by 70 and not 90. My mistake. The meaning of those options will turn on what happens beginning this December.

While the entry into service of any airplane is a important for the mfr, the A380 is going to be especially important one for Airbus given the 6 month delay and also simply the fact that it is such a high profile project. If that goes well and Singapore Air makes happy sounds, well then be sure to let us all know when those options are exercised as they occur...I am sure you will.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 2:18 pm

How many 747-8s can land at a slot restricted airport, when compared to the A380-8? My guess would be, since the spacing is double for the A380, then two 747-8s per one A380.

Will the 747-8 be quiet enough to land at noice restricted airports 24 hours a day?

Thanks in advance...
 
N79969
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 2:22 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 24):
How many 747-8s can land at a slot restricted airport, when compared to the A380-8? My guess would be, since the spacing is double for the A380, then two 747-8s per one A380.

Will the 747-8 be quiet enough to land at noice restricted airports 24 hours a day?

Thanks in advance...

To be fair, that 10-mile ATC separation is a recommendation that is now in effect and may be reduced to something significantly smaller by EIS.
 
leelaw
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 2:40 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 21):
in the end, I think BA will get a dozen or so A380's....but nothing more than that...I do think they will also get a bunch of 747-8I's....

Wasn't Mr. Boyle quoted in the article that BA was "ruling out placing an order for both types?"
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Shenzhen
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 2:47 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 25):
To be fair, that 10-mile ATC separation is a recommendation that is now in effect and may be reduced to something significantly smaller by EIS.

No arguement here, but you can bet that this is being brought up each time the 747-8 is being pitched against the A380-8.

It would certainly change ones thinking of the A380 if an airline lost a slot each day they operated the A380 into LHR, LAX or SYD.
 
jacobin777
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:16 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 26):

Wasn't Mr. Boyle quoted in the article that BA was "ruling out placing an order for both types?"

Leelaw, it doesn't state that anywhere in the article...

the article says "The UK carrier has traditionally been lukewarm about ultra-large aircraft, showing no enthusiasm to be an early customer for the Airbus A380"

but by the time they decide to order it (big if here), the A380 will probably be in service for 5 years....unless they can get some of those slots (or planes) from other carriers..

also, Willie Walsh was on record recently saying that there is room for about a dozen or so A380's..

Quoting N79969 (Reply 25):
To be fair, that 10-mile ATC separation is a recommendation that is now in effect and may be reduced to something significantly smaller by EIS.

but if the recommendation sticks, it certainly will not bode well for BA purchasing the A380.....
"Up the Irons!"
 
WAH64D
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:19 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 14):
Do you really think that kind of nationalistic sentiment cuts much ice these days? The current CEO is Irish and the previous one was Australian. I hope BA make decisions on cold-blooded commercial criteria rather than some notional sense of nationalistic loyalty. (Their competitors certainly do!)

With BA, yes I do. The CEO is just that, a Chief Executive Officer, a frontman backed by a large board of directors

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 21):
not only that, a few RR carriers such as CX already have shown that the engine choice isn't completely important on what kind of fleet to purchase....

CX had no option but to take CFM on the A343. If there was an option, CXs 343s would have RR donks under the wings. Cathay are probably RRs most loyal customer.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
jacobin777
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:24 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 29):
CX had no option but to take CFM on the A343. If there was an option, CXs 343s would have RR donks under the wings. Cathay are probably RRs most loyal customer.

but they could have taken the A346 with RR engines (which they already have in their fleet), yet they chose a twin with GE engines for further growth.......
"Up the Irons!"
 
leelaw
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:30 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 28):
Quoting Leelaw (Reply 26):

Wasn't Mr. Boyle quoted in the article that BA was "ruling out placing an order for both types?"

Leelaw, it doesn't state that anywhere in the article...

My bad, it's not a direct quote, but the comment seems to be attibuted to him:

"Boyle is not specific about the timing for such an order, saying that it is dependent on the replacement timing for BA’s 747-400s, the oldest of which are 17 years old. “We’ll be getting in to the ‘zone’ to decide on a replacement in the next year or so,” he says, ruling out placing an order for both types."
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
N1120A
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:50 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 24):
Will the 747-8 be quiet enough to land at noice restricted airports 24 hours a day?

Yes, though LHR has a curfew anyway

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 27):
It would certainly change ones thinking of the A380 if an airline lost a slot each day they operated the A380 into LHR, LAX or SYD.

LAX is not slot restricted, but the issue of wake turbulance with the A380 is a major one that may cause severe headaches at places like FRA and LHR that are slot restricted
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
jacobin777
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 3:56 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 31):
My bad, it's not a direct quote, but the comment seems to be attibuted to him:

lol..it happens to me all the time... Wink
"Up the Irons!"
 
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LTU932
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 4:48 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 30):
but they could have taken the A346 with RR engines (which they already have in their fleet), yet they chose a twin with GE engines for further growth.......

And don't forget that CX also has PW engines on the 747-412s they are getting from SQ.

I personally don't see BA ordering any A380s, as much as I'd like a Speed Bird A380 flying. I have my money on a possible 747-8 and 773ER combo. And I don't think BA should have any problems with the GE90-115Bs since those had no major incident since EIS (unlike when BA introduced the GE90s), and MX should be pretty capable of handling the -115B.
 
ikramerica
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:18 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 8):
Their "9 month review" of their future fleet requirement is almost up, so there maybe some orders this year, sooner than thought.

Expect 773ER order soon, due to those comments, the time frame, and the fact that the 777 line is filling up and if they want planes in 2009 after T5, they need to get them now.

Unfortunately for airbus and boeing, there are plenty of 2010 and beyond slots for the 748 and 380. I would assume once one company tells BA otherwise, they don't really have to decide on that matter.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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keesje
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:18 pm

BA made very clear for years that they first want to see a new aircraft being proved in service.

Now, the first Boeing 747-8i will fly in 2010.

In the article BA is quoted : “We’ll be getting in to the ‘zone’ to decide on a replacement in the next year or so”

Place your Bets..
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ikramerica
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:19 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 36):
Place your Bets..

They've seen a 747 before...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:24 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 36):
BA made very clear for years that they first want to see a new aircraft being proved in service.

How many wide body airplanes from Boeing have BA "not" signed a contract before the airplane was certified. I'm pretty sure they signed for the 747-4 and the 777, but not sure about the 767.
 
scotron11
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:53 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 36):

In the article BA is quoted : �We�ll be getting in to the �zone� to decide on a replacement in the next year or so�

I think everything is connected. They are pushing the pension issue, attempting to get that under control, also savings on labor before the move into T5. Once these matters are resolved, they will turn their attention to fleet renewal. How long it'll take them to resolve the pension issue is anyone's guess, but I think Walsh is doing the right thing in getting all his "ducks" lined up.

Right now the pension issue is killing them and has to be resolved, hopefully without any industrial action. Their deficit is £1.83Billion ($3.4B), and with a market cap of only £2.8B, something definitely has to be done.
 
WAH64D
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:56 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 30):
but they could have taken the A346 with RR engines (which they already have in their fleet), yet they chose a twin with GE engines for further growth.......

Yes. Exactly the same situation as the A343, B773 was not available with Rolls Royce engines at the time.

Cathays B772s have Trents. It would stand to reason and I personally know this to be true, that if the B773 was available with Trents from the outset, CX would have had the Rolls Royce engine and not GE.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
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PM
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 8:29 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 40):
Yes. Exactly the same situation as the A343, B773 was not available with Rolls Royce engines at the time.

Cathays B772s have Trents. It would stand to reason and I personally know this to be true, that if the B773 was available with Trents from the outset, CX would have had the Rolls Royce engine and not GE.

We're only ever going to cause confusion if we aren't accurate. You mean the 773ER but twice you refer to the 773. The latter is, of course, available with Trents and Cathay has a dozen in service or on order.
 
Glom
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 9:21 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 40):
Cathays B772s have Trents. It would stand to reason and I personally know this to be true, that if the B773 was available with Trents from the outset, CX would have had the Rolls Royce engine and not GE.

You're missing the point. We know that CX are a loyal RR customer and would have had Trents on their 773ERs if they could. But the fact that they couldn't didn't stop them from ordering the aircraft. That's the point. Engine preference is more of a luxury than a necessity these days. As with CX, we think BA are also likely to not turn down a good aircraft for them just because they can't get Trents.
 
trex8
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 9:44 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 30):
yet they chose a twin with GE engines for further growth.......

people are forgetting that CX started jet operations with Convair 880s which were GE powered, when they started flying 707s, they were Pratt powered. It was only with the L1011 in the mid 70s that CX's infatuation with RR began. Its hardly in their genes to be RR diehards!
 
abba
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Tue Jan 17, 2006 10:51 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 24):
How many 747-8s can land at a slot restricted airport, when compared to the A380-8? My guess would be, since the spacing is double for the A380, then two 747-8s per one A380.



Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 27):
It would certainly change ones thinking of the A380 if an airline lost a slot each day they operated the A380 into LHR, LAX or SYD.



Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
LAX is not slot restricted, but the issue of wake turbulance with the A380 is a major one that may cause severe headaches at places like FRA and LHR that are slot restricted

Seems that the separation issue is not going to become a real issue according to people posting here who are getting the reports from the testflights where the wake turbulence are among other things being measured.

Abba
 
jacobin777
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Wed Jan 18, 2006 12:27 am

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 34):
And don't forget that CX also has PW engines on the 747-412s they are getting from SQ.

correct, and it adds more to the credibility that engines selection isn't that big of a deal as it used to be..especially if the fleet is large enough....

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 40):
Cathays B772s have Trents. It would stand to reason and I personally know this to be true, that if the B773 was available with Trents from the outset, CX would have had the Rolls Royce engine and not GE.

i agree.. checkmark 

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 43):
people are forgetting that CX started jet operations with Convair 880s which were GE powered, when they started flying 707s, they were Pratt powered. It was only with the L1011 in the mid 70s that CX's infatuation with RR began. Its hardly in their genes to be RR diehards!

lol..thanks for the history... Smile

but once again, they "prefer" (a term I'll use loosely) RR-based engines, yet they don't mind having the added expense of a different engine manufacturer...
"Up the Irons!"
 
Amy
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Wed Jan 18, 2006 3:13 am

I honest,ly think that the 747-8 is the better choice and I hope BA order them over the A380.

I have nothing against the A380 or Airbus, I just can't see BA ordering the A380. What with the 744 and 748 comonality (mostly flight deck, but a few other things too i'm sure) I would expect the 748 to be the easiest and cheapest to integrate into the fleet.

As for GE only... BA have plenty of GE and CFM engines already so I can't imagine that being such a problem.
A340-300 - slow, but awesome!
 
A319XFW
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Wed Jan 18, 2006 3:34 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 32):
LAX is not slot restricted, but the issue of wake turbulance with the A380 is a major one that may cause severe headaches at places like FRA and LHR that are slot restricted

Just out of interest (pure hypothesis here!), what happens if the comparisons Airbus did with the 747-400 and A380 show that there isn't much difference and the A380 needs more spacing.
The 747-8 has got a new wing and might (probably) have the same wake as a 747, then it also would have to be put in the A380 category of wake and not the 747-400 category...? Or would the type certificate allow it to be in the lower (747-400) category?
 
ikramerica
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Wed Jan 18, 2006 3:44 am

Quoting Abba (Reply 44):
Seems that the separation issue is not going to become a real issue according to people posting here who are getting the reports from the testflights where the wake turbulence are among other things being measured.

even it they have some kind of 1st year probation period for proving, it won't be the 10nm they have now, and it won't effect things too much because there won't be a lot of A380s out there in the first year to begin with.

It's only in 2008 and beyond where this will really be a question, but hopefully the vortex issue will be well sorted out by then.

Quoting Amy (Reply 46):
I honest,ly think that the 747-8 is the better choice and I hope BA order them over the A380.

Honestly, the 773ER is probably the best choice, but it sounds like they want to replace SOME 744s with a plane of roughly that size, but since the 744 is not practical in today's market, they have to go bigger. Going bigger to the 748 is not as much of a leap as going much bigger to the 380.

BA at LHR is like NH and JL at NRT. Despite other carriers maybe needing to think about A380s, BA has enough access that they can do 773ERs on all the routes that don't have major restrictions at the OTHER END. Only then will they need to go bigger.

Everyone always assumes that everyone who flies 747s needs them, but they forget that for the longest time, there was no alternative outside of a much smaller 340 or a non-starter MD11 for long, heavy routes. The 773ER changes all that. The 346 offers an alternative as well, though not quite as efficient.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
WAH64D
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RE: FI: BA Grapples With 747 Succession

Wed Jan 18, 2006 5:15 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 48):
Honestly, the 773ER is probably the best choice, but it sounds like they want to replace SOME 744s with a plane of roughly that size, but since the 744 is not practical in today's market, they have to go bigger. Going bigger to the 748 is not as much of a leap as going much bigger to the 380.

BA at LHR is like NH and JL at NRT. Despite other carriers maybe needing to think about A380s, BA has enough access that they can do 773ERs on all the routes that don't have major restrictions at the OTHER END. Only then will they need to go bigger.

Everyone always assumes that everyone who flies 747s needs them, but they forget that for the longest time, there was no alternative outside of a much smaller 340 or a non-starter MD11 for long, heavy routes. The 773ER changes all that. The 346 offers an alternative as well, though not quite as efficient.

Agree with your comments 100%. The 773ER makes the most sense for BA, the aircraft could have been designed with them in mind.

Something I think might push them to order a couple of A380s is that they need to keep their stature with the home customers. BAs UK image is very important to them, they like to be seen as top dog. Virgin operating A380s could steal some of BAs thunder in the eyes of the British Public. I'm unsure if BA would be willing to accept this.
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