BoomBoom
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A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:37 am

Aboulafia also said Airbus needs to win several blue chip orders for its planned A350. Even though Airbus received 87 firm orders for that plane in 2005, only one customer, International Lease Finance Corp., would be considered a top-tier customer. It ordered 12 planes.

Aboulafia recalled how Boeing, in the early days of 787 sales two years ago, announced an order from Primaris. The planned Las Vegas airline still does not exist.

Airbus has too many A350 orders from airlines such as TAM Linhas Aereas, which has ordered 10, Aboulafia said.

"It's all fluff," Aboulafia said. "They need a Singapore or an Emirates."


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/256050_air18.html

[Edited 2006-01-19 01:46:50]
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
gkirk
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff--Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:44 am

A customer is a customer, surely?
Every customer should surely be treated the same way and not on different tiers?

In summary?
Aboulafia is an idiot
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
norcal
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff--Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:47 am

Severe flaming in 3, 2, 1.......
 
N79969
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff--Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:49 am

I agree with his reasoning. His poor choice of words was too blunt for a newspaper interview though.

If Boeing counted the Chinese 737 order using the Airbus method, it seems they would have won the unit count as well as the dollar count. I am not sure why Boeing did not raise the point but I am glad they did not. It would be petty.

But I say let Airbus enjoy its moment. If they want to count that claim a win over Boeing, then so be it.
 
jacobin777
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff--Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:49 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
"It's all fluff," Aboulafia said. "They need a Singapore or an Emirates."

will be interesting to see what happens if SQ, EK go Boeing...but there are others, lots of others actually....
"Up the Irons!"
 
ETStar
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff--Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:50 am

A report/story that is quite expected to come from the Seattle PI, Boeing's manufacturing homegrown paper, which is very pro Boeing and has a large readership of Boeing employees... At any rate, an order is an order, does not matter where it came from, as at the end of the day, both manufacturers look at the gross numbers...
 
nirvarma
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff--Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:51 am

Interesting article. I guess those who feel Aboulafia has a bias towards airbus will have more ammunition.
I did find the following interesting though..
The Chinese government in 2005 also announced that it would buy 150 jets from Boeing. Baseler said Boeing counted 50 of those as orders in 2005 from six airlines. The remaining 100 should be booked this year once the airlines have signed contracts, he said.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:51 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
Every customer should surely be treated the same way and not on different tiers?

This is not about how Boeing or Airbus treats their customers. It's about whether the A350 is a viable competitor to the 787. Sure, the A350 had a good first year, but that was the "low hanging fruit." Can they get the stuff on tree tops?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
N79969
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:53 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
A customer is a customer, surely?
Every customer should surely be treated the same way and not on different tiers?



Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
In summary?
Aboulafia is an idiot

No he is not. He is ultimately right. Some customers are more valued than others because by choosing your product, they raise the profile of your product. Companies such as QF and SQ are premier airlines and Airbus is (rightly) bragging that it will supply their flagship airplane.
 
calags
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff--Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:53 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
Aboulafia is an idiot

Far from it actually. In his line of business being so quotable and frank is a plus rather than a minus. I daresay he deliberately makes such provocative statements to ensure that he gets printed. Furthermore, sticking his neck out like that is perceived as supreme confidence in his assertions helping to ensure that his clients will be willing to put up the moolah for the Teal Group's products. Nice job if you can get it, really.

Of course, if he is proven wrong more often than correct will eventually make such clients unwilling to pay up. The fact that he's been around for a while and the press seeks out his comments suggests he's batting better than the average a.nutter.

Leonard
 
Cruiser
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:56 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 4):

will be interesting to see what happens if SQ, EK go Boeing...but there are others, lots of others actually....

SQ will likely go Boeing whereas EK is still in the 'could go either way' category. There are a few more blue chip customers, but many of them won't be ordering for a few more years which will allow Airbus to really get their act together.

James
Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:58 am

Firmed, booked orders are anything but fluff. The A350 is anything but fluff.

What is true is Airbus could use a strong, blue-chip customer that firmly validates the A350 is a legitimite 787 competitor.

Boeing has these major customers on-board with the 787:

- Air India
- Air Canada
- Northwest
- Continental
- Qantas
- Japan Airlines
- All Nippon Airlines
- Korean Airlines

Airbus has these major customers on-board the A350:

- Qatar
- US Airways

Signing Aeroflot, Aer Lingus, LH, and other strong candidates and winning either/or the EK and SQ order may be what Airbus needs to accomplish this. Losing both EK and SQ would be a horrible mark of (lack of) confidence in the A350 program. It would years for Airbust to recover momentum if Boeing won both those orders.

EK and SQ are crucial strategic orders in the coming months.
 
Trvlr
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:01 am

I wouldn't go so far as to call orders from TAM, TAP, and Finnair "fluff". While not huge airlines, they have proven business models. Nevertheless, the A350 certainly needs "an Emirates" to inspire more confidence, not to mention make the it profitable in the first place.

As with the Primaris 787 order, I would be most worried about orders from the likes of ALAFCO, Bangkok Airways or Kingfisher. Ditto USAirways (but not for the same reasons). Banking on too many airlines/organizations which have yet to prove their worth in the A350 market is risky.

Aaron G.
 
AA737-823
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:02 am

Hmmmm.

I think he's right- for the A350 to be considered a valid aircraft, some blue-chip airline will have to order it.

BY THE SAME TOKEN, I seem to remember Boeing booking several no-name airlines (okay, maybe LOW-name would be better) early on. Granted, ANA launched, and they're big. A lot bigger than... Air Europa. But Blue Panorama? First Choice? Yeah, they're viable, but they're not big names like Air France or British... neither of which have placed orders for the 787 to this day.

So, yes I agree, but I think it also applied to the 787 at one point, before the big guys (CO, NW, etc) came in.

Who's ever heard of Air Europa anyways? Come to think of it, Finnair, Qatar, and US are the only respectable airlines on the A350 list. And my putting US on the list of 'respectable' is... kind of me.

Hmm...
 
jacobin777
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:08 am

Quoting Cruiser (Reply 10):
SQ will likely go Boeing whereas EK is still in the 'could go either way' category. There are a few more blue chip customers, but many of them won't be ordering for a few more years which will allow Airbus to really get their act together.

well..if Boeing does go they way of the 787-10 (which seems highly likely), I would think that EK will go with Boeing..they have been badgering Boeing since 2004 and they have been rather consistent in 2005 about Boeing building the it, and I think thats part of the reason as to why they didn't order the A350......

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 11):

Boeing has these major customers on-board with the 787:

you can include NZ, ILFC to those majour customers.....not to mention, LO and AI have ordered it also...
"Up the Irons!"
 
PITrules
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:09 am

The thing from the article that grabbed my attention is that Boeing sold more than twice as many widebodies as Airbus.

Another great year for the A-320. But I'd take the domination in the widebody category any day.

[Edited 2006-01-19 02:19:11]
FLYi
 
BoomBoom
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:11 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 13):
I seem to remember Boeing booking several no-name airlines

But the point is they got some BIG name airlines too: NH, AI, AC, QF, NW, KE, JL...
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
CX747
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:13 am

Actually, this gentleman works for the TEAL group which basically looks over the aircraft manufacturing world and reports on it. Mr. Aboulafia has been around for several years and his opinion is highly respected.

[Edited 2006-01-19 02:37:25]
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:16 am

Quoting ETStar (Reply 5):
A report/story that is quite expected to come from the Seattle PI, Boeing's manufacturing homegrown paper, which is very pro Boeing and has a large readership of Boeing employees...

I'll take your word for it that you've read the PI on a regular basis, but I'll just say this: Both the PI and the Times have been very willing to trash the local companies, be it Boeing, Microsoft, Alaska Airlines, etc. in the name of being "above bias". In the end, some would say that they are actually tougher on these companies than some other more distant publications.

Suffice it to say, if you think the local papers are giving Boeing a pass on anything, your IMHO mistaken. They will post the good news, but they will also post the bad.

-Dave
-Dave
 
kaitak744
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:22 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 18):
Suffice it to say, if you think the local papers are giving Boeing a pass on anything, your IMHO mistaken. They will post the good news, but they will also post the bad.

Yes, I remembering them reporting the orders at the Paris airshow and how Airbus got more. It is really not a bias newspaper.
 
Rj111
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:28 am

Sorry but there's no way you can compare TAM with Primaris.

One has a large fleet which includes A330's. One does not exist.

I'd certainly consider QR pretty high profile too.

He sounds like a bit of an idiot. Not saying he is one, he has some valid points, he just sounds like one.
 
sonic67
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:35 am

I had thought Airbus had won the Aeroflot order but according to Flight international seems that they are leaning towards the 787.

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...+towards+Boeing+787+selection.html
 
N79969
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:36 am

USAirways is a good name but the terms of the deal are not real sweet for Airbus. Basically Airbus lent HP/US $250 million last year with one of the conditions being a 20 aircraft order 6 years down the road. That's not quite money in the bank.

TAM, TAP, Finnair are not bad airlines...that is not what he is saying. He is not judging airlines. Rather he is assessing the quality of A350's market position relative 787 based on the size of the customers and orders. Clearly no one would dispute that Lufthansa is a far more important customer to Airbus than Finnair or Druk Air or whatever. When they buy, they buy lots and the planes are seen in most corners of the planet.
 
jacobin777
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:37 am

what I found interesting was Leahy saying that Boeing had only sold 45-50 (whatever the number was) when the 787 was launched (thus no big deal with weak A350 sales)....but there are two BIG differences..

1)right now, air carriers do have the choice between two next-generation aircraft, where as when Boeing launched the 787, a carrier didnt' really have a choice of a competing product.....the A330 is a great plane, but its not a so-called "next generation" plane which touts the efficiency of better engines and composites to the extent the 787 and A450 do...

2) the BIGGEST factor here is oil....back when the 787 was introduced, oil was in the $30's/barrel, now its in the $60's/barrel...and yet sales of the A350 haven't ramped up to reflect this....

thus, I think yet once again, Leahy is off the mark with his statements........
"Up the Irons!"
 
leelaw
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:44 am

Quoting CX747 (Reply 17):
Mr. Aboulafia has been around for several years and his opinion is highly respected.

Wasn't Aboulafia a severe critic of Boeing during the Condit Administration? His comments, like those any other "analyst," should be taken with a grain of salt, but I don't think he brings any bias towards a particular OEM to the table.

From Seattle PI article:

"...Countered Boeing's Baseler:

"Even if the A350 goes toe to toe with the 787, what are they (Airbus) going to do for 300 seats and above ...

"The headline today is that Airbus beat Boeing again in orders. But at the end of the day, a month or two from now, everyone will have forgotten the headline and will be writing about what Airbus has to do to shore up their poor performance in widebodies."

Seems like Baseler wants to match some of Leahy's trash-talk at yesterday's Airbus press conference.

IIRC, when questioned about missing his "200 orders, ummm...I mean 200 orders and commitments [that little gaff was quite amusing]," by the end of 2005 forecast for the A350, didn't Leahy say something akin to:

We've got 172 "orders and committments" at a point when our competitor had only 64, they've got P.R., we've got backlog?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
bigb
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:54 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 13):
Who's ever heard of Air Europa anyways? Come to think of it, Finnair, Qatar, and US are the only respectable airlines on the A350 list. And my putting US on the list of 'respectable' is... kind of me.

Air Europa is a solid airline in Europe. Based in Spain. They codeshare with CO on some transatlantic routes.
ETSN Baber, USN
 
leelaw
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:55 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 18):
Quoting ETStar (Reply 5):
A report/story that is quite expected to come from the Seattle PI, Boeing's manufacturing homegrown paper, which is very pro Boeing and has a large readership of Boeing employees...

I'll take your word for it that you've read the PI on a regular basis, but I'll just say this: Both the PI and the Times have been very willing to trash the local companies, be it Boeing, Microsoft, Alaska Airlines, etc. in the name of being "above bias". In the end, some would say that they are actually tougher on these companies than some other more distant publications.

Suffice it to say, if you think the local papers are giving Boeing a pass on anything, your IMHO mistaken. They will post the good news, but they will also post the bad.

Having been a regular reader of the Seattle PI for almost twenty years, I agree with PlanesNTrains assessment. Airbus partisans who accuse the Seattle PI of being a mouthpiece for Boeing or otherwise playing to the sentiments of the local market in order to dismiss it as a reliable source of good information, are really all wet.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
anxebla
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:00 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
In summary?
Aboulafia is an idiot

Abouidiot could call himself. Oh My God!! if even Randy Baseler, Boeing's vice president of marketing is less fanatic than this guy called Aboulafia.

According to R.Baseler: >""The headline today is that Airbus beat Boeing again in orders. But at the end of the day, a month or two from now, everyone will have forgotten the headline and will be writing about what Airbus has to do to shore up their poor performance in widebodies.""<

Baseler seems a pleasant person. He was in Madrid last month and he was interviewed by the Spanish Avaition Magazine Avión Revue. It was a very interesting interview when Baseler said UX is a Boeing's good customer and this Spanish carrier still could become in a 787 operator (thing which I doubt highly) because according to himself "Air Europa todavía no ha realizado el pedido de los A-350 en firme, no hay firmado nada" (UX still has not made any A-350 firm orders and there is not nothing signed)

But according to UX & Airbus, UX was the A-350's launch customer. Air Europa uses B-737 for domestic/European routes.

Quoting ETStar (Reply 5):
Boeing's manufacturing homegrown paper, which is very pro Boeing and has a large readership of Boeing employees...

It seems natural to me and I see logical the Seattle PI may be a bit partial pro-Boeing, but just "a bit". Sometimes that newspaper is a real joke.
AIRBUS 320 The world's most advanced single-aisle aircraft
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:01 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 14):
well..if Boeing does go they way of the 787-10 (which seems highly likely), I would think that EK will go with Boeing..they have been badgering Boeing since 2004 and they have been rather consistent in 2005 about Boeing building the it, and I think thats part of the reason as to why they didn't order the A350......

Or they will get the deal of a lifetime on the A350, which would not surprise me at all. As the number of big candidates for the 787/A350 dwindles in the near term (next 12 months), the pressure to secure another (after QR) big order would seem to be mounting for Airbus. Getting EK would put a lot of smiles on some faces in [list various Airbus HQ and manufacturing cities here].

Quoting Sonic67 (Reply 21):
I had thought Airbus had won the Aeroflot order but according to Flight international seems that they are leaning towards the 787.

It depends on what day it is, the price of natural gas, and I think who wins the Super Bowl.  Smile

-Dave
-Dave
 
hz747300
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:01 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
Every customer should surely be treated the same way and not on different tiers?

Biggest misconception in business. You treat big customers like gold, because they have leverage and resources to be picky. You treat small customers like crap, because where else are they going to go. The minute you start focusing your attentions on small customers, big customers become irate that they are not being babied enough. That's how it works in business.

You cannot afford to have each client with a customer services executive tending to the every need of every customer. It is not profitable and it is unrealistic.

You have to treat Lufthansa a lot differently than you treat Exel UK. Using your logic there would never a volume discount for large orders.
Keep on truckin'...
 
glacote
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:02 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 3):
If Boeing counted the Chinese 737 order using the Airbus method, it seems they would have won the unit count as well as the dollar count. I am not sure why Boeing did not raise the point but I am glad they did not. It would be petty.

I missed this. Could you please elaborate on this? How many orders and commitments did Boeing dispose for 2006?
 
N79969
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:08 am

Quoting BigB (Reply 25):

Air Europa is a solid airline in Europe. Based in Spain. They codeshare with CO on some transatlantic routes.

I do not think anyone including Aboulafia would argue that Air Europa is a bad airline. I am sure it is great. So it Midwest Express apparently. That is purely from a traveler perspective though. It is far different from a mfr perspective.


There is so much attack on the messenger that people are missing the message: Airbus needs to sell the A350 to one of the big dogs: Lufthansa, British Airways, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, United, or some other company in that league. These airlines have revenues well into the billions and have sprawling networks that require a lot of jets to operate.

That is the point and it is hard to honestly dispute. Airbus has sold to ILFC which is a premier company.

Quoting Anxebla (Reply 27):
Quoting ETStar (Reply 5):
Boeing's manufacturing homegrown paper, which is very pro Boeing and has a large readership of Boeing employees...

It seems natural to me and I see logical the Seattle PI may be a bit partial pro-Boeing, but just "a bit". Sometimes that newspaper is a real joke.

This is just nonsense. While people in Seattle may hope that Boeing prospers and is on the right track, it does them no good whatsoever if a newspaper sells them feel-good lies to the effect. Like anyone, the truth is what ultimately matters to them. If Boeing is in trouble, they probably want to know about it because it will affect them sooner rather than later.

Glacote,

It is in the article. Boeing does not count the Chinese orders until the actual operator signs up the for airplanes. Although the Chinese have agreed to buy 150, only 50 are allocated and that is what Boeing counted. They don't count the other 100 until the airline operator is selected and figured out.

Airbus counted all 150 at once and is not waiting until they have been allocated.

If Boeing had used the Airbus method, I think their total would have been 1,122.




[Edited 2006-01-19 03:11:20]

[Edited 2006-01-19 03:12:16]
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:09 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
It's all fluff," Aboulafia said

That's some expensive fluff!

-Dave
-Dave
 
abba
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:13 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
Aboulafia is an idiot

He absolutely is. Some of what he writes is so bad that you have to read a.net to get anything worse. He seems a hero or guardian saint for the usual band.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 17):
Mr. Aboulafia has been around for several years and his opinion is highly respected.



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 11):
- Air India
- Air Canada
- Northwest
- Continental
- Qantas
- Japan Airlines
- All Nippon Airlines
- Korean Airlines

Airbus has these major customers on-board the A350:

- Qatar
- US Airways

Only a few of these can actually be said to have been credibly evaluating the 350 and the 787 as they are now against each other for a number of different reasons. QF went 787 after a very tight battle where QFs board needed to have an extra meeting in order to make their final decision. However - even if it is a small airline - I would also include Finn Air in this list of airlines that have - relatively unbiased - been evaluating the two aircrafts against each other. Finn Air is - in spite of being small - a highly professional and respected airline. Finn Air went as should be known for the 350.

Abba
 
anxebla
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:13 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 31):
If Boeing is in trouble, they probably want to know about it because it will affect them sooner rather than later.

Then you are agree with me, aren't you?  Wink
AIRBUS 320 The world's most advanced single-aisle aircraft
 
jacobin777
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:14 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 28):
Or they will get the deal of a lifetime on the A350, which would not surprise me at all. As the number of big candidates for the 787/A350 dwindles in the near term (next 12 months), the pressure to secure another (after QR) big order would seem to be mounting for Airbus. Getting EK would put a lot of smiles on some faces in [list various Airbus HQ and manufacturing cities here].

I still don't think they will do it, EK's Clark has mentioned before that the b787-10 would be a better plane than the A350, and after a few years of use, I don't think the "sweeter deal" would equate to the costs savings..and heck, maybe Boeing will give the "sweeter deal"..........

"While the larger size of the A350 over the 787-9 makes it the front-runner, Clark says recent experiences with new Airbus types not meeting all the manufacturer’s promises is partly responsible for Emirates’ indecision. “The A350-900 is a brilliant machine if it does what Airbus says it will, and we’ve told them that misses [on performance or delivery promises] will be unacceptable.”

Boeing is studying a double stretch of the 787, the -10X, primarily for Emirates’ needs, which Clark says is likely to be superior to the A350-900. But it is not certain this aircraft will be launched in the near future, and service entry is unlikely before 2012 – two years behind the A350 as now scheduled. "

http://www.flightinternational.com/A...mirates+wary+of+A350+promises.html

Quoting Glacote (Reply 30):
I missed this. Could you please elaborate on this? How many orders and commitments did Boeing dispose for 2006?

100 according to quoted sources..
"Up the Irons!"
 
PHXFLY
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:39 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 18):
I'll take your word for it that you've read the PI on a regular basis, but I'll just say this: Both the PI and the Times have been very willing to trash the local companies, be it Boeing, Microsoft, Alaska Airlines, etc. in the name of being "above bias". In the end, some would say that they are actually tougher on these companies than some other more distant publications.

The Seattle Times ran an 8 part series on the 737 rudder problems sometime after the US 427 crash. The series rather critical of Boeing and openly questioned the safety of the aircraft and the rudder system. It was a bit sensationalistic in parts but the author won a Pulitzer prize for the series. It was a big deal and got quite a bit of media attention.
 
NAV20
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:45 am

Quoting Abba (Reply 33):
Some of what he writes is so bad that you have to read a.net to get anything worse.

Aboulafia wasn't 'writing' anything - he was asked for a comment by a journalist. Anyone who has been in consultancy will know that 'being quoted' is a valuable marketing aid - and will also know that if you start saying things like, "On the one hand this, but on the other hand that......" the journalist will just put his notebook down and start looking up your competitor's number.

Aboulafia's duty to his firm, the Teal Group, was to say something short and to the point, so it would get quoted - to provide what they call a 'sound-byte' nowadays. He does that job very effectively.

As to his professional track record, it's impressive. Anyone interested can read about it here:-

http://www.tealgroup.com/analysts/index.htm

As to his ability also to write turgid professional prose when required, this (an excerpt from the Gellman Report  Smile ) is quite a good example:-

"Fragmentation will, in fact, be a key issue in determining what portion of the market will accrue to the A380 once overall future growth and replacement needs have been determined. This and competitive offerings determine the A380’s market share and, therefore, expected annual deliveries. In addition to forecasting demand for A380 passenger aircraft, this market analysis also predicts deliveries of freighter versions for 2006-2025. Finally, once the delivery forecast has been determined, program revenues are calculated based on forecast prices for both the passenger and cargo versions of the A380."
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
anxebla
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:49 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 31):
I do not think anyone including Aboulafia would argue that Air Europa is a bad airline.

UX will be that important in a medium-term like IB is nowadays. They are doing thing pretty well, unlike the ultra-conservative IB
AIRBUS 320 The world's most advanced single-aisle aircraft
 
YYZ4RADD
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:54 am

I have never seen this idiot say anything positive...he should stop offering his opinion and shut up.

I really want to email him personally to take a hike....he is like one of those so called experts that annoy the hell out of me.

YYZ4RADD
 
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jetjack74
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:08 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
Aboulafia recalled how Boeing, in the early days of 787 sales two years ago, announced an order from Primaris. The planned Las Vegas airline still does not exist.

Maybe i'm missing something here, but this is Primaris, is it not?
http://www.primarisairlines.com/index.aspx

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DfwRevolution
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:09 pm

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 20):
Sorry but there's no way you can compare TAM with Primaris. One has a large fleet which includes A330's. One does not exist.

Primaris isn't a Boeing order unless you consult.... Wikipedia

Quoting Abba (Reply 33):
Only a few of these can actually be said to have been credibly evaluating the 350 and the 787 as they are now against each other for a number of different reasons.

 hissyfit 

There's one reason: Timing.

Airbus was not in a position, nor could they have, been prepared to immediatly offer the A350. When NH launched the 7E7 in April 2004, Airbus was offering an unmodified A332 and had the gall to cry fowl. The A350 was only recognized as of November 2004, and wasn't until summer 2005 that it was a working concept capable of industrial launch.

Timing is everything, and it isn't worth crying, lameting, or excusing. The 787 took advantage of marvelous timing and Airbus is still being hard-pressed to respond.

Quoting YYZ4RADD (Reply 39):
I really want to email him personally to take a hike....he is like one of those so called experts that annoy the hell out of me.

Be my guest, I'd love to hear about an A.netter taking the press on:

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/contact/

Heck, I'm sure he would love opening up his Inbox (address below, hint hint  Wink ) and seeing a hundred angry letters from irate enthusiast. But I didn't give you the idea:

raboulafia@tealgroup.com
 
rktsci
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:17 pm

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 29):
Quoting Gkirk (Reply 1):
Every customer should surely be treated the same way and not on different tiers?

Biggest misconception in business. You treat big customers like gold, because they have leverage and resources to be picky. You treat small customers like crap, because where else are they going to go. The minute you start focusing your attentions on small customers, big customers become irate that they are not being babied enough. That's how it works in business.

You cannot afford to have each client with a customer services executive tending to the every need of every customer. It is not profitable and it is unrealistic.

You have to treat Lufthansa a lot differently than you treat Exel UK. Using your logic there would never a volume discount for large orders.

Bingo! All orders are NOT created equal.

While it would be too complicated in practice, I would say that you could multiple each order by a "fluff factor". An airline like QF, BA, or AA might get a 1.2 or 1.3 fluff factor - solid enterprises, will be around for a while, and having them as a customer gives great leverage over other contracts. The "vapourair" companies might get a 0.5 or 0.7. No way of knowing if they'll ever receive all of their deliveries. Some might even warrant an 0.2 or 0.3. Others of good and poor standing will fall in between.

The 787's major customers would likely rate between 1.1 and 1.3. However, the A350 has Qatar (1.0-1.2) and US Airways (maybe 0.7 or 0.8 - I rate them lower because the purchase was funding-linked).

It would be an interesting exercise to rank all of the airlines, and then multiply the order numbers by the fluff factors to see what the effective number of orders is for each company/aircract type.

To those who doubt this method, this is exactly how many companies predict their future revenue streams - they multiple the value of the contract they are bidding on by the probability that they'll win.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:18 pm

Quoting Abba (Reply 33):
QF went 787 after a very tight battle where QFs board needed to have an extra meeting in order to make their final decision.

Well... so says the extremly politically correct statement they gave. Some sources outside the press and closer to the decision say the margin of victory wasn't quite as narrow as alluded publically.

We'll never know, but we have eight of the world's biggest carriers (four being A330 customers) selecting the 787 as their future long-haul backbone. It speaks for itself, the 787 has a tremendous degree of backlog credibility, the A350 does not. Until Airbus wins a major order from, say: SQ, EK, LH, SV, EI, etc, they are still fighting an image garnered by a product with just a handful of major customers.

Quoting Abba (Reply 33):
I would also include Finn Air in this list of airlines that have - relatively unbiased - been evaluating the two aircrafts against each other. Finn Air is - in spite of being small - a highly professional and respected airline.

Ugh... you can always count on the detail worry worts showing their true colors  yuck 

Finn Air is exactly what you say: SMALL. In the grand scheme of an aircraft market likely to span nearly 3,000 aircraft, pointing to an order for six aircraft as a sign of market credibility is rediculous. Did you see me include LOT or Air NZ, obviously respectable carriers that placed 'small' orders?

Heck, it's not so much the size of the order but the size of the carrier making said order. KL, CO, NW placed modest orders, they are simply much larger more diverse airlines that are better indicators of market preference.
 
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mariner
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:21 pm

Okay, so he's right, all the orders are fluff.

And Southwest's passengers are all trailer trash. And Tiffany's is better than Walmart.

But - as my Jewish friends say - gelt ist gelt.

Money is money. You sell to those customers who want to buy your product.

cheers

mariner
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antiuser
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:38 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
Airbus has too many A350 orders from airlines such as TAM Linhas Aereas

... which is only the market leader in one of Latin America's busiest and wealthiest markets, has a solid Airbus fleet, receives great praise for its service and has been growing and profiting steadily for over a decade.
Azzurri Campioni del Mondo!
 
MidnightMike
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:50 pm

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 40):
Maybe i'm missing something here, but this is Primaris, is it not?
http://www.primarisairlines.com/inde....aspx

Primaris exist only as a chart on-demand airline, the plans for scheduled service have not materialzed, I am not even sure if Primaris still has any 787 slots anymore....
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Shenzhen
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:54 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 31):
There is so much attack on the messenger that people are missing the message: Airbus needs to sell the A350 to one of the big dogs: Lufthansa, British Airways, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, United, or some other company in that league. These airlines have revenues well into the billions and have sprawling networks that require a lot of jets to operate.

Removing 2005 from the equation (which was a wierd year for orders), and generally speaking, the top 20 airlines order over 80 percent of the new airplanes. With this mind, nobody should think that every airline are created equal. If you win at Blue Chip airline, the follow on orders (which don't necessarily make headlines) are huge.

I was just thinking about Qatar. This order (for both Airbus and Boeing) seems to be sitting on the fence way longer then what would normally be expected, as delivery slots must slipping away. Could these orders still be up in the air, meaning either Boeing and/or Airbus are offering large concessions on those already anounced to secure the orders that have been anounced for the other manufactures model?.... meaning Boeng offers additional price concessions on the 777 if they go 787 instead of A350, or vise versa, Airbus offers additional A350 concessions if they go A340?

Cheers
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:54 pm

Quoting YYZ4RADD (Reply 39):
I have never seen this idiot say anything positive...he should stop offering his opinion and shut up.

One man's positive is another man's negative, I guess. It all depends on who's on the wrong side of the "fluff" comment.

-Dave
-Dave
 
N79969
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RE: A350 Orders Are Fluff Says Aboulafia

Thu Jan 19, 2006 1:09 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 44):
Okay, so he's right, all the orders are fluff.

And Southwest's passengers are all trailer trash. And Tiffany's is better than Walmart.

But - as my Jewish friends say - gelt ist gelt.

Money is money. You sell to those customers who want to buy your product.

cheers

mariner

Sure money is money. But his point is a little larger than that.

The (clear) implication of his remarks is that by picking up a slew of orders from the many of the world's large airlines that operate sizable fleets over expansive networks, Boeing gauged the market correctly and placed its bet wisely. He is saying that the opposite seems to be true for Airbus and that they need to pick up one of these large network airlines soon to vindicate their view of the market and the needs of airlines.

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