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1337Delta764
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A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:28 am

Would a triple merger between Delta, Continental, and Northwest get approved? This would create the largest airline in the world. How would the hub structure work? My guess would be the fleet would go in Boeing's direction, as the only airline of those three who operates Airbuses is Northwest.
The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
 
Tornado82
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:31 am

Only on A.net would someone come up with that idea, and immediately turn it towards A v B.

It'll never happen, the government would thwart it in the time it took you to type that.
 
Chiguire
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:31 am

I do more believe in a BA/LH/AF merger !
 
aircanada014
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:56 am

You know would be interesting to have AC, UA and CO to merge or AC, UA, US
or AC, UA, DL or even AC, DL and CO
 
Tornado82
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 8:13 am

Quoting AirCanada014 (Reply 4):
AC, UA, US

The gov't kibashed the old-US with UA long long ago. I doubt they'd like this one.

AC/US I could almost see as feasible, but then the issue of foreign ownership comes in to play. AC does have a little slice of the US pie as we speak though, don't forget.
 
wn700driver
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 8:38 am

I can't see how CO would tolerate the business models & massive deficits that have put NW & DL into bankruptcy court. Maybe they would buy out DL or NW a piece at a time, but that could take decades.
Base not your happiness on the deeds of others, for what is given can be taken away. No Hope = No Fear
 
boeingguy1
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 8:40 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
Would a triple merger between Delta, Continental, and Northwest get approved? This would create the largest airline in the world. How would the hub structure work? My guess would be the fleet would go in Boeing's direction, as the only airline of those three who operates Airbuses is Northwest.

With people throwing around these rediculous ideas, I wonder where they get such good herb. Maybe I should give KLM and Amsterdam a call, then maybe Ill come up with a "EI/BA" merger thread.
 Wink
Gatwick South! Id rather crash in Brighton!
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 8:41 am

Quoting Wn700driver (Reply 6):
I can't see how CO would tolerate the business models & massive deficits that have put NW & DL into bankruptcy court.

NW has a business model  Wow!...


On a serious note, theres nothing "Super" about that merger.
 
Indy
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 8:43 am

Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 8):
On a serious note, theres nothing "Super" about that merger.

Super Federal Rejection

and IF by some stretch of the imagination it got past that point in a few years we would have....

Super Bankruptcy

My 2 cents.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
deltagator
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 8:53 am

Quoting Wn700driver (Reply 6):
I can't see how CO would tolerate the business models & massive deficits that have put NW & DL into bankruptcy court.

As opposed to the two bankruptcies CO went through because of a suspect business model.

A merger between two of them might happen but not all three. My magic 8 ball says CO and DL could make a match but NW is left out in the cold.
"If you can't delight in the misery of others then you don't deserve to be a college football fan."
 
slider
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 8:56 am

Mass suicide.

Plain and simple.
 
wn700driver
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:02 am

The difference is that CO has learnt a thing or three in that awful process. From 1993 (last Bankruptcy emergence) to present, they have stayed black more than any US carrier. Including certain LCCs that like to bragg on that.

DL & NW OTOH, have not done the same. CO learnt the hard way that having a billion different types in the fleet just doesn't cut it for reliability & cost control. NW obviously slept through that class. Hopefully they can hang on to some of their paid for AC, but multiple types & hubs in weather delay prone regions do not help.
As for delta, their employees need to start pulling their weight already. Until recently, their flight crews had the highest average saleries in th US. Great if you can afford that, but not so hot if one is trying to expand a route network or aquire new ACs.
Hopefully the make like CO & GET IT. The last thing anyone needs is to see them dissapear & open up more room for LCCs.
Base not your happiness on the deeds of others, for what is given can be taken away. No Hope = No Fear
 
graham697
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:23 am

I am going to sound crazy, but consolidation is what we need in the industry. Back when US-UA were trying merge it was a different climate and they still made some sort of money without all of the LCC competition. Now with so many LCCs flying in our airports, it is time for our 'Flag' carriers of the US to consolidate and a DL-CO merger with maybe parts of NW or better yet Alaska would make a much better airline, if CO management was in charge and they kept the units separate until each one was ready to join CO Mainline.
Looking forward to the new AA
 
dtwclipper
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:27 am

NorthDeltinental


Sounds more like a new electric toothbrush  stirthepot 
Compare New York Air, the Airline that works for your Business
 
PHLBOS
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:49 am

Quoting Graham697 (Reply 13):
Back when US-UA were trying merge it was a different climate and they still made some sort of money without all of the LCC competition

Not that much different, the economic bubble of the '90s was already starting to burst in 2000. If TW & US were making money then; why would there ever been even talks of merging w/AA & UA respcetively? The economic fallout following 9/11/01 only intensified the erosion process.

And as far as LCC competition is concerned, had UA & US merged; even without 9/11, UA/US would have ultimately dropped and/or drastically scaled back its PHL & PIT hubs because both of those PA airports are too close (< 300 miles) to UA's IAD hub.

That would've either:
1. Let the door wide open for WN to come into PHL & PIT roughly 2 years earlier than they did; similar could be said for F9.

2. Allowed FL to expand at either airport to a point where they would have a larger presence at either airport than they presently do.

3. Allowed B6 to come into either airport.
"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
 
HunUtazo
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:58 am

ha ha ha ha....





cal/ual

amr/nwac

dal/?

lcc/?

luv/?


there ya go,

good luck to all and to all,

good night!
dude
 
OttoPylit
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 11:47 am

Quoting Wn700driver (Reply 6):
I can't see how CO would tolerate the business models & massive deficits that have put NW & DL into bankruptcy court.



Quoting WN700Driver (Reply 12):
The difference is that CO has learnt a thing or three in that awful process. From 1993 (last Bankruptcy emergence) to present, they have stayed black more than any US carrier.

Who is to say that DL and NW aren't doing their share of "learning" during their BK processes? DL has trimmed fleet and costs, spread their entire flight schedule more evenly throughout the entire country, and has now decided to play hardball against the LCC's. And the flight crews(by this, you mean pilots) are starting to see that the lifestyle they once knew is no longer the norm for anyone. I would say that DL has learned a lot and milks its BK process for all its worth. Very smart move, as compared to US's attempt at springing in and out, only to return again. DL still projects break even by the end of 2006 and profits by summer 2007 and CEO Grinstein recently confirmed the airline is right on track with its transformation, while CO will also join the other companies and report a loss for this quarter.



OttoPylit
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
N867BX
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:04 pm

When I was a kid I suggested to my airline employee neighbors that Republic and Northwest merge. They laughed themselves silly over that suggestion.
 
LawnDart
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:05 pm

Quoting Wn700driver (Reply 6):
I can't see how CO would tolerate the business models & massive deficits that have put NW & DL into bankruptcy court.

Because they know the score?

Please...CO uses the same "business model" and they've already been bankrupt. Twice.

And they still have massive debt.

Quoting WN700Driver (Reply 12):
The difference is that CO has learnt a thing or three in that awful process. From 1993 (last Bankruptcy emergence) to present, they have stayed black more than any US carrier. Including certain LCCs that like to bragg on that.

And their last quarterly report was....

Quoting Graham697 (Reply 13):
I am going to sound crazy, but consolidation is what we need in the industry.

Why?

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 17):
DL has trimmed fleet and costs, spread their entire flight schedule more evenly throughout the entire country, and has now decided to play hardball against the LCC's.

Amen...and witness DL's announced new service out of MCO to cities served exclusively by FL...fight's on.

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 17):
And the flight crews(by this, you mean pilots) are starting to see that the lifestyle they once knew is no longer the norm for anyone.

And which air carrier has the highest paid pilots now? AA? CO? DL? UA?

WN.

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 17):
CEO Grinstein recently confirmed the airline is right on track with its transformation,

And he also stated DL is not looking at a merger with anyone. End of thread.
 
aeroman62
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:51 pm

Ah, but Delta and CO probably have a fairly combinable fleet combination, more so than the dirty red tails of the north, however they'd have to probably divest DL's JFK operation, and toss a coin over CLE or CVG, but it could work if DL could get its house in order, and emerge from Chp. 11. Right now, though, CO seems to want to blame DL for copying them under the protection of Chp. 11 for some of their own $ woes, time will tell.
 
joeman
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Fri Jan 20, 2006 2:48 pm

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 15):
Not that much different, the economic bubble of the '90s was already starting to burst in 2000.

My personal portfolio of stock was starting to nosedive in late 98'.
A DL/NW/CO merger? Nothing in this ridiculous industry would surprise me.
 
DALIFS
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 12:26 am

I cannot help myself as merger talks/rumors are near and dear to everybody at Delta.

I do not think anybody here should worry about Delta getting their house in order and come out from BK as a transformed formidable competitor.

* Front line employees are being retrained with focus on the new Delta and our guests. The message is clear, it is your choice to participate or ..."thank you for your service to Delta."
* Massive fleet restructuring with aircraft modifications for service upgrades are scheduled through mid 2007.
* Network restructuring will fortify the Transatlantic and Latin American operation to be a profitable #1 and #2 in the industry while solidifying market share in North America with service upgrades galore.
* Plans are being finalized to expand Delta's global reach with ultra long haul flying with destinations to be announced later this year.

With everything currently in the works, it is my opinion...... that NWA's pacific route system (the finest there is) would/could be the final piece in a phenomenal puzzle. Will such a transaction be painful? Absolutely but the final "product" will have competitors scrambling.

 yes 
Fly Delta Jets
 
Guest

RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 12:46 am

Quoting DALIFS (Reply 21):
* Plans are being finalized to expand Delta's global reach with ultra long haul flying with destinations to be announced later this year.

Well, finally I'm not the only one that's said this. Be careful, some of the clowns on here might call you an idiot!  Wink

Lemme tell you the tools that came out of the woodwork when I said that PEK and JNB/CPT are on the map.

B
 
Tbird
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 12:50 am

I have a grand idea how about a super merger of all topics that have already been posted regarding these airlines coming together or in some combination involving the three.
 
DL787932ER
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting NonRevKing (Reply 22):

Lemme tell you the tools that came out of the woodwork when I said that PEK and JNB/CPT are on the map.

Would that be possible this/next year? I was under the impression the government denied DL permission to fly to China in favor of AA and CO. I'd also think DL would need to take delivery on the rest of their 772s as I'm almost certain South Africa and Beijing are out of range of a 763ER from ATL.

I think either or both of these services are awesome, but I don't see how they could happen before 2008 or 2009, which is when I think the gov't is going to assign further China flights and when DL is supposed to take delivery of the rest of their T7's.
F L Y D E L T A J E T S
 
DALIFS
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:12 am

There are other immediate desires than China although this is considered the #1 market to break into. For equipment, consider the repositioning of B767-432ERs to Europe to cover current B777-232ER flying freeing these up.
Fly Delta Jets
 
BigOrange
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:31 am

Quoting WN700Driver (Reply 11):
CO learnt the hard way that having a billion different types in the fleet just doesn't cut it for reliability & cost control.

But a merger with DL wouldn't increase the number of aircraft types drastically, at least on mainline. The only addition to the types would be the MD-88/90, which they could sell to NW to replace the DC9's.

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 18):
And he also stated DL is not looking at a merger with anyone. End of thread.

They might not be looking at a merger, it doesn't say it's going to happen. Grinstein can say what he wants, whenever he wants doesn't mean to say he's not going to change his mind.

I don't see NW getting in the mix with CO/DL I can see them joining with United though. I can see the potential for a CO/DL/AS merger with the SLC hub being replaced by SEA.
 
FlyGuyClt
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:37 am

If a merger like that happened?

To the employees:

"BRACE FOR IMPACT"

Safe Flying  Smile
Florida Express, Braniff II and ......
 
LawnDart
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:48 am

Quoting BigOrange (Reply 26):
Quoting LawnDart (Reply 18):
And he also stated DL is not looking at a merger with anyone. End of thread.

They might not be looking at a merger, it doesn't say it's going to happen. Grinstein can say what he wants, whenever he wants doesn't mean to say he's not going to change his mind.

I don't see NW getting in the mix with CO/DL I can see them joining with United though. I can see the potential for a CO/DL/AS merger with the SLC hub being replaced by SEA.

Grinstein usually does say what he wants...he's the boss. And he has changed his mind in the past...witness his support of Leo Mullin and that gang of thieves. However, take a look at his negative views of Song, and what eventually happened with Song. So if he says they're not thinking of a merger right now, I believe him...for right now.

I truly believe he is commited to fixing DL at the moment, and believe me when I say that's enough for anyone to think about...at the moment. Thoughts of a merger would tax anyone's brain on top of dealing with CH11.

However, what merger do I think would be the best in the industry? AA and DL. CO and DL are second in my mind...and I'm not even going to throw AS into the mix. And SEA is not a viable hub for domestic services...so SLC would remain.

And any fleet issues you have with DL and NW would carry over to UA and NW. Not to mention the gov't having conniptions over the duplicate Pacific authorities...or the DTW/ORD/MSP hubs...
 
BigOrange
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 2:43 am

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 28):
And any fleet issues you have with DL and NW would carry over to UA and NW. Not to mention the gov't having conniptions over the duplicate Pacific authorities...or the DTW/ORD/MSP hubs...

Why would the fleet issues carry over to NW/UA. They both operate A319/A320 domestically. The Dc9's are being withdrawn so they are out of the picture. The transatlantics could stay as they are until they decide either all B777's or all A330's. The UA 737's are getting old and could be withdrawn for more Airbus types.

The Pacific route authority could be combined with only LAX losing out with the NRT route. MSP would probably be withdrawn, with all local service being operated from DTW. Or they could spin off the proposed new loco and have it operate as a separate entity from MSP
 
wn700driver
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 4:09 am

Quote:
And which air carrier has the highest paid pilots now? AA? CO? DL? UA?


WN

That doesn't make it the best place to work out of hand. At WN, there is little opportunity to advance beyond regional flying, there is no union protection, and in general, most pilots are treated better elsewhere. Maybe not what one expects to hear, but there it is. Now all that is fine, as no one is really in it for the money anyway, but that's only if you are a pilot.

FAs, ramp agents, gate agents, & MX crew are some of lowest paid in the industry. And those are the folks who really work hard in this field. Frankly, it's hard to spread the LUV when your counterpart at DL, UA, AA, etc... is making twice what you do, has real benefits & the same DOH.


Otto,

As for DL & not learning about BK, what I meant was that CO now knows enough not to involve themselves in such a venture. Personally, I do hope DL & NW come out of this (allthough they can lose their new ceo; an airline that wants to outsource everything and fire its good people doesn't need to fly.) As I said before, I shudder to think what happens if LCCs get their way in the end.
Base not your happiness on the deeds of others, for what is given can be taken away. No Hope = No Fear
 
IcelandairMSP
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 4:10 am

Quoting BigOrange (Reply 29):
The Dc9's are being withdrawn so they are out of the picture

That's not quite true. Currently, NW plans to withdraw all of their remaining DC9-30s, of which there are not many, and some of their 40s and 50s as well. But, DC-9s will be flying with NW through 2015 and beyond, according to the airline. The Avros will be gone by the end of this year (too bad, they were roomy) and depending on what happens to Mesaba, the Saabs could very well disappear in the near future. Some DC-10s and 742s will stick around for a considerable time longer to cover a lot of Hawaii/Japan/Marianas flights.

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 16):
DL still projects break even by the end of 2006 and profits by summer 2007 and CEO Grinstein recently confirmed the airline is right on track with its transformation, while CO will also join the other companies and report a loss for this quarter.

Is it just me or has basically every legacy claimed this every year for, you know, next year they'll break even and profits will come after that. I still don't see any of them making profits or breaking even for more than a quarter or two. I'll believe it when I see it. Maybe I'll be surprised but perhaps investors are going to stop believing these guys pretty soon.

As far as a consolidation, one of my professors said the way businesses keep competitive is "Innovation, Consolidation, or Liquidation." Legacies are making pitiful, minimal attempts to innovate and with their ingrained structure, really the only other possibilities to survive are to merge or die. If DL can prove it is more than a financial burden, I wouldn't doubt a DL/CO merger. They have relatively complimentary routes and hubs minus the obvious JFK/EWR conflict and CLE/CVG conflict but, let's face it. How much longer will CLE stick around? Also, given its fleet, route structure, and close relationship to DL, CO, and NW, I wouldn't doubt the addition of Alaska to that merger. NW might tip the scale a bit too much and they've always done their own thing and I doubt CO would consent to dealing with another money pit like NW. By consolidating so much, it allows them to much more easily cut routes, fleet, and, sadly, employees but that's what the airlines need to be profitable.
 
commavia
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 4:16 am

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 28):
However, what merger do I think would be the best in the industry? AA and DL.

American doesn't want the hastles and headaches of taking over the mess that is Delta, and American hardly needs much of Delta's network. American covers most of it with its own existing route system, with Delta's dominance along the east coast being perhaps the only real addition.
 
srbmod
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 5:11 am

Any airline mergers in the US in the next 5-10 years will not be one of the Big Six Legacies (AA, UA, US, DL, NW, CO) merging with another of the Big Six Legacies. There would be far too many legal hoops to jump through (A point of reference would be to look at the failed breakup/merger of US with UA and AA [And the transfer of the bulk of US's DCA ops to Robert Johnson to start DCAir].); the main reason why the US/HP merger made sense and had less legal issues was because they have route networks that were strong in different parts of the country and didn't require too many changes to their networks. You will probably see consolidation within the LCC segment and perhaps among some of the smaller airlines and smaller majors. I would pick AS, F9, YX, NK and TZ to be tempting targets for M & A action, with airlines like B6, CO, UA, AA, and FL being the acquiring party (WN will stay away from the M & A actions, as they prefer to not pick up other airlines).
 
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antoniemey
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 5:43 am

Quoting DeltaGator (Reply 9):
As opposed to the two bankruptcies CO went through because of a suspect business model.

Yeah, because we all know Frank Lorenzo is really still in charge there...  Yeah sure

Quoting HunUtazo (Reply 15):
cal/ual

OK, dude, either stop smoking the mary jane, or actually post something in support of your fantasies. The corporate cultures at UA and CO are entirely different and CO has no need of UA's past troubles, they have enough of their own.

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 18):
Please...CO uses the same "business model" and they've already been bankrupt. Twice.

no, CO's business model is quite different from NW or DL... and as for the 2 bankruptcies, see above.
Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
 
vegasplanes
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 5:58 am

I do not see mergers as the answer to the industries problems. What is need is one or more of the BK airlines to liquidate. Example, NW files for Ch.7, the routes that are profitable (Asia, NRT Hub, ANC Hub) would be sold off by the court trustee, as will any and all assets, I can see AA and CO bidding on the Asian routes, sorry DL you don't have the finances for that, FX and UPS for ANC hub and 747/DC-10 fleet or part of. The Airbus and most of the 757 fleet could be sold or re-leased. Bye-Bye Pinnacle and Mesaba, DTW, MSP, and focus cities in MKE and IND. Finally some real capacity would be cut in the domestic market.

UA looks like it is coming out of BK, no problems there for now.

DL is an interesting situation, not in as bad of shape as NW, not as good as UA or CO, AA. Their most valuable assets in my opinion is the Shuttle, I can see AA buying that as the NE Shuttle was on their wish list in the early 1990's when US was on the ropes, or at least AA trying to buy the DCA, LGA, slots along with gates, also BOS. FL would like to lease some more gates in ATL, the European routes are presumably worth something, the question is how much as NW, the prime carrier for the routes is in worse shape than DL, AA and CO probably would not have much interest, maybe UA?

That's my two cents on these here matters.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 10:42 am

DL cannot and will not combine with either CO or AA. DL already is the number one or two airline in most northeast airports; AA is in the top three while CO is dominant in EWR which is part of the NYC market. The US gov't will not allow DL, CO, or AA to combine simply because they would control a much larger portion of the market at any one of the NE airports than UA or US did in the Washington market. Further, DL has committed to a further expansion of its NYC operations which will make the possibility of combination less likely.

The driver of consolidation will be to provide end-on-end strength in international route systems. The only combinations that do that involving DL are with NW and UA - both of which have Asian operations which DL doesn't while having weak or limited Latin America and European operations (or complimentary London/continental Europe operations in UA's case).

Fleet compatibility, while significant, is not the most significant factor in consolidation. It is less of an issue when airlines operate fleets of hundreds of aircraft of the same type; the bulk of a DL and NW merger is composed of 250 aircraft each of the 757/767 and A320/330 types which have alot of commonality. 744 and 738s have similarities to the other Boeings in DL's fleet. Further, airlines could well swap aircraft between themselves over several years to increase commonality. ie in a DL/NW and CO/UA merger, DL/NW could swap 764s and 738s for A320s/19s. Even w/ different engines, there would be more commonality than there is without the combinations. And the fleets that would be swapped would be younger fleet types - not the MD80s or 735s.

DL and NW will emerge from bankruptcy as standalone units because it is almost impossible to create a merger that would create as much or more value for both airlines creditors in a merger as they could get as standalone companies. However, if both do clean themselves up and arm themselves with cash, they will be very attractive merger partners. Rejecting duplicate leases near the end of their bankruptcies could set themselves up for a merger shortly after they emerge.

While DL and NW look "down" now. Let's remember that the airline industry is very cyclical and some of the players that are up now were down at one time not so long ago. NW looked pretty invincible just a year and a half ago while Delta had some of the highest margins in the US airline industry back in the late 90's. Meanwhile, CO hit its stride in the late 90s when times were good and they enjoyed a substantial cost advantage AS A RESULT OF their TWO bankruptcies. CO's advantage is eroding and they won't be quite as lofty as they once were - esp. since other carriers are gunning for the rich business markets in their EWR and IAH hubs - where few low cost carriers operate.

AA is the best case of maintaining consistency in the industry and even they will be at a disadvantage to every other carrier that has been able to clean up their balance sheets and jettison surplus assets in bankruptcy. I believe AA can manage but they also have the most complete route system (absent only Asian operations in other countries besides Japan which they COULD develop on their own). Their self-sufficiency also makes it less likely they will merge with another legacy airline which means they could be surpassed by mergers between the other four legacies such as DL/NW and CO/UA which is what I believe will happen.
 
Delta4eva
Posts: 242
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:20 am

RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 10:45 am

Quoting Vegasplanes (Reply 35):
I can see AA and CO bidding on the Asian routes, sorry DL you don't have the finances for tha

Hate to tell ya....but none of them have the money for that.

Quoting Vegasplanes (Reply 35):
DL is an interesting situation, not in as bad of shape as NW, not as good as UA or CO, AA.

I think you are completely wrong about this.... DL has an extremely convincing plan for the future... If they can get pilot concessions this Spring, then I don't see anything stopping them. They have their house in order and know what they need to do. AA's losses are mounting and they may be looking at another downward spiral....UA has an excellent route network, however I don't see a very good business plan....CO is in the best shape out of all of them right now, and their EWR hub is a huge asset, but DL plans to aggressively compete on the Atlantic routes, which is where I really see CO making their money.
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GSPITNL
Posts: 342
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2003 1:10 pm

RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 12:18 pm

This would be a nice thought but will NEVER EVER happen.

Quoting Delta4eva (Reply 37):
I think you are completely wrong about this.... DL has an extremely convincing plan for the future... If they can get pilot concessions this Spring, then I don't see anything stopping them. They have their house in order and know what they need to do. AA's losses are mounting and they may be looking at another downward spiral....UA has an excellent route network, however I don't see a very good business plan....CO is in the best shape out of all of them right now, and their EWR hub is a huge asset, but DL plans to aggressively compete on the Atlantic routes, which is where I really see CO making their money.

I couldnt agree more. DL is making strides forward to clean the plate and fix the past! I see DL being strong again before the end of the Decade.

AA is screwing themselves left and right and it will backfire soon I am afraid.

UA Has crap for a business plan and will hurt them in the long run and will visit back to Chp. 11 in a few years. In the long run, UA is going to be the weakest link in the big guys.

CO is the strongest link in the US as far as the Legacy carriers go and all they need to do is compete more on the Atlantic routes more as you stated and they will be in the Green.

NW has some work to do however they will come out in far better shape than UA and US have and will. NW just needs to get this whole NewCo thing out of their heads or do it better than what i have read about it.

My 2 cents......GSPITNL
Fly Delta - The Only Way To Fly! Silver Medallion Baby :)
 
incitatus
Posts: 2700
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:01 pm

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 16):
Who is to say that DL and NW aren't doing their share of "learning" during their BK processes?

I would venture into saying they are not. BK is a distraction from running a business. The cleanup is mostly financial: lower compensation, leases, debt payments, trim the fleet, shed side businesses, etc. That's what United did. There is another part of learning that United did not do, and neither Delta or Northwest are doing. It is to overhaul planning processes and the operation itself to increase overall productivity. Without this, all the airlines in bk now are doomed. Just adding a bunch of flights to Europe won't fix an airline. Let's see when Summer is over how many of those flights will stay.

Quoting GSPITNL (Reply 38):
I see DL being strong again before the end of the Decade.

The strength of Delta was the ATL hub. With Airtran now having a growing and successful hub there, I don't see it coming back.
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GSPITNL
Posts: 342
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2003 1:10 pm

RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:07 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 39):
The strength of Delta was the ATL hub. With Airtran now having a growing and successful hub there, I don't see it coming back.

HAH! Thats funny, FL is about maxed ATL out as far as they can. DL will never give up gates to FL! The only hope of FL getting more gate space and making ATL as more successful hub is for DL to go CHP 7 which isnt happening.

FL is about done with ATL. I see them trying to add another hub that isnt so heavily dominated by one major airline.

As for you thinking DL is not coming back, Whatever!
Fly Delta - The Only Way To Fly! Silver Medallion Baby :)
 
N1120A
Posts: 26467
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:40 pm

RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 1:45 pm

Quoting WN700Driver (Reply 11):
The difference is that CO has learnt a thing or three in that awful process. From 1993 (last Bankruptcy emergence) to present, they have stayed black more than any US carrier. Including certain LCCs that like to bragg on that.

Now that is a joke, particularly if your name is true. WN has not had a single unprofitable quarter since Gulf War I and not a single unprofitable year since the early 1970s. CO has been treading water the past several years, but barely.

Even if a CO/NW/DL merger could work for them financially, it would very quickly run afoul of anti-trust law. If you think the UA/US merger was anti-competitive, CO/NW/DL would be just scary.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
ChicagoFlyer
Posts: 209
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:00 am

RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Sat Jan 21, 2006 2:40 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 39):
BK is a distraction from running a business. The cleanup is mostly financial: lower compensation, leases, debt payments, trim the fleet, shed side businesses, etc. That's what United did. There is another part of learning that United did not do, and neither Delta or Northwest are doing. It is to overhaul planning processes and the operation itself to increase overall productivity. Without this, all the airlines in bk now are doomed.

Part of what your say is true, and part is false. It is true that a lot of the company's resources are tied up in the bankruptcy process--guys in the HQ are busy fending off creditors and inventing new cuts and the frontline employees are busy worrying about their future, and (in case of United AFA, and NW AMFA) allowing their union to royally screw up for the sake of "standing up" to management.

However, it is NOT just the financial cleanup. According to the press releaseUnited's operation in Q3/2005 flew only 5% fewer ASMs with 10% fewer airplanes. For the first 9 months their planes stayed in the air--creating revenue--on average an 45 mins longer. Their planes are fuller, and Ted, ps and explus are successful in serving their customers. The employees are more productive. I cannot fathom why you are saying that UA did nothing but cut cut cut.

Is United done making changes to their operation? No, they have not done nearly enough for sustained profitability, but they are not stopping, either. United management learned from USAir on what to do and not to do in bankruptcy and NW and DL management will learn from UA. Will the other two restructure successfully? I do not know--one airline has a history of labor troubles and another seems to have gone in for some pretty crazy resource allocation. But they will give it a shot. The "super merger" is not happening though  Smile
 
OttoPylit
Posts: 2259
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:58 am

RE: A DL/NW/CO Super Merger?

Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:03 am

Quoting NonRevKing (Reply 22):
Lemme tell you the tools that came out of the woodwork when I said that PEK and JNB/CPT are on the map.

 eyepopping  WHAT!!! Hey B, shoot me a PM or email and let me know about this. But other than that, you are correct. The a.net bozo's hate honesty and logic.

Quoting IcelandairMSP (Reply 31):
Is it just me or has basically every legacy claimed this every year for, you know, next year they'll break even and profits will come after that. I

Nope. DL has said since 2004 that profitability will NOT come before 2007. You may have heard other airlines adjust their figures, but DL has been pretty adamant about their times.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 32):
American doesn't want the hastles and headaches of taking over the mess that is Delta, and American hardly needs much of Delta's network.

Yea, plus AA reported a loss of 600 million for the 4th quarter of 2005. So I would say they have a little of their own housecleaning to deal with. Why mess with mergers when your own airline is still in chaos?

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 39):
The cleanup is mostly financial: lower compensation, leases, debt payments, trim the fleet, shed side businesses, etc.

Lets see, Delta is has imposed wage cuts and is negotiating with ALPA, dropped unneeded leases on many 732's and a couple 763's, thereby trimming the fleet, and sold ASA to Skywest. You're correct, and Delta is right on track, as well as growing internationally.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 39):
The strength of Delta was the ATL hub. With Airtran now having a growing and successful hub there, I don't see it coming back.

DL's ATL hub still is its strength. They cut back CVG and strengthened the position of ATL even more. All new routes were announced from ATL and JFK.
And they have locked down anything in ATL that is not already nailed to the floor, keeping FL from growing there.



OttoPylit
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.