leelaw
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FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Mon Jan 23, 2006 9:01 pm

The electronic edition of this week's Flight International is reporting:

FI 24-January-2006 "Airbus closes in on proposal for local assembly of narrowbody airliners at a rate of four per month" (fair use)

"Assembly of first Chinese-built Airbus A320 family aircraft could begin before the end of next year, should Airbus decide to go ahead with the proposed joint venture."

Airbus's decision to go forward could come as early as this July following completion of a study.

...The Chinese would be specifically tasked with building A319s and A320s, "as this is the bulk of the China market," says [Airbus Vice-President Olivier] Andries.

[Edited 2006-01-23 13:13:30]
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
leelaw
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 2:52 am

The full text of this article is now available online:

http://flightinternational.com/Artic...a+set+to+be+offered+A320+line.html
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
A319XFW
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:03 am

It says

Quote:
“The first sections could arrive in China by the end of next year, and deliveries would begin in 2008 and would have a monthly rate of four aircraft.”

I think this would be a PR coup for Airbus, as not only will Boeing have the 787 ready for the Olympics, but possibly Airbus a Chinese built A320 too.......

Not all info is in the article, but I guess that will be known once a site has been chosen.
 
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garpd
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:16 am

The issue I see as a great snagging point is technology transfer.

Will the european governments take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?
Or will they turn a blind eye believing this will result in exclusivity for Airbus in China?
Short term answer to the long term?
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MarshalN
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:22 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Or will they turn a blind eye believing this will result in exclusivity for Airbus in China?

I suspect this is the key
 
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garpd
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:28 am

Quoting MarshalN (Reply 4):

I suspect this is the key

If that is indeed the case, its quite possible that they will be shooting themselves in the foot.

Solving a long term problem (namely in this case selling A320s to china, not a problem as such but just a manner of speaking) with a short term solution (Assembly plant in China) is not good practise.

China could take what they need then dump the assembly plant and Airbus and make their own A320/737 sized aircraft.
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sabenapilot
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:33 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):

The issue I see as a great snagging point is technology transfer: will the European governments take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the Chinese?

By the time the A320 is going to be built in China, it will be 20 years old; hardly a risk of transfer of cutting edge technology....

Besides, it will not be a Chinese company which will build A320s under license, it will be an Airbus factory set up in China as a joint venture with the Chinese.

How many European and American companies produce their products in China already? Why would planes be different from DVD-players, televisions, radios etc???

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Will they turn a blind eye believing this will result in exclusivity for Airbus in China?

Nobody knows, but next time the PRC needs a new bunch of narrow bodies, a simple split between A and B seems less likely...

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Short term answer to the long term?

With B outsourcing cutting edge technology to Asian countries already, the long term reality is that China too will get the technology some day anyhow. Better to be first to the market and benefit from it, don't you think?
 
Confuscius
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:37 am

Please read this article by someone you like...or like to hate.  Wink

Dear Fellow China Watchers...

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/shownote.asp?id=207
Ain't I a stinker?
 
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scbriml
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:39 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
The issue I see as a great snagging point is technology transfer.

This would be mainly mid-1980s technology, some newer avionics. Not that much of a threat I'd have thought.

Quoting GARPD (Reply 5):
China could take what they need then dump the assembly plant and Airbus and make their own A320/737 sized aircraft.

If it was that easy for the Chinese, why didn't they do it with the MD-90 or even the ERJ-145?

If it does happen, this will only be a final assembly line producing 4 planes a month. It's not a case of the Chinese building A320s from scratch.
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N328KF
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:50 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Will the european governments take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?

This will only include final assembly. Basically, import lots of pre-fabbed portions, all the avionics, engines, etc., and slap them together. Embraer is similar except they have their own airframe design talent (much of which is imported.)
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
A319XFW
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:50 am

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 7):
Please read this article by someone you like...or like to hate.

Dear Fellow China Watchers...

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/show...d=207

Goes to show that even he is wrong at times....

Quote:
“describes the process to evaluate the fields of enhanced cooperation, including the possibility to establish a Final Assembly Line for single aisle aircraft in China.”

In French, Chinese, or fractured bureaucratese, that statement is meaningless.

But I suppose that someone has got to get it right in China sometime...
 
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N328KF
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:53 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 6):
Besides, it will not be a Chinese company which will build A320s under license, it will be an Airbus factory set up in China as a joint venture with the Chinese.

The rules about having to do joint ventures to produce a plant in China are falling by the wayside. I should know, my company has a 100%-owned plant over there.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
TheSonntag
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:55 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8):
it was that easy for the Chinese, why didn't they do it with the MD-90 or even the ERJ-145?

Did you see drawings for the next generation Chinese regional jet? It looks a lot like the MD80.

I think offering the Chinese a manufacturing line is more than stupid.
 
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:00 am

How much would a new Chinese aircraft have the technology of the A320 in it though? The A320 is a 20-year old design.

As like everyone on here seems to be stating nowadays, all new aircraft MUST have a composite fuselage etc. to be competitive.
From that reasoning, the Chinese would have to get the technology that Airbus and Boeing aquired over years of research and testing.
Yes, you could just copy it from somewhere (787?), but would that be the same?
 
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:08 am

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/shownote.asp?id=207

Airbus and the Chinese also signed an instantly hyped agreement that describes the process to evaluate the fields of enhanced cooperation, including the possibility to establish a Final Assembly Line for single aisle aircraft in China. In French, Chinese, or fractured bureaucratese, that statement is meaningless.

All fluff too, then, to use his own wording?

Richard Aboulafia is wrong more often and sooner than ever before these days...
I think he must be running for the 'aviation comedy cup' or something like that, because the credibility rating of this 'star' is falling faster than a asteroid nowadays.
 
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scbriml
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:12 am

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 12):
Did you see drawings for the next generation Chinese regional jet? It looks a lot like the MD80.

A drawing is a lot different from having thousands of planes in service around the World.


I really don't understand why so many people are scared of this - the Chinese record in this area is far from great. Why shouldn't Airbus do it - it's already been done twice before.

If the Chinese were that desperate to be playing in this field they would likely already be there. I fail to see what an FAL can give them that they couldn't have already reverse-engineered from one of the many A320s and 737NGs that the West has been so happy to sell them.

Even if they do learn all of Airbus's A320 "secrets", by the time they're ready to build their own, Airbus and Boeing will already be on the next generation of single-aisle planes.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
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garpd
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:13 am

All very good answer folks.
I guess my primary concern was the wing technology.

Even at a final assembly line, the possibility remains to "reverse engineer" what ever you want.
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A319XFW
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 16):
I guess my primary concern was the wing technology.

Too late for that - China has started making A320 wings... And soon they will be 4 wingsets a month... Guess where they will be going.
Building A320 wing technology is different from designing A350 wing technology though.
And from a wing point of view, the 787 wing is going to be designed and built in Japan. And I can't see anyone being worried about that?
 
sabenapilot
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:20 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 16):
my primary concern was the wing technology.

The 'technology' associated with the wing is not associated with the assembling, but with the designing and wind tunnel testing of it, none of which will be done in China.

There is nothing to learn from fitting a wing to the fuselage that the Chinese don't know from maintaining their fleet of A320s already. A D-check of a plane is basically a reverse manufacturing of a plane and they have been doing so for years.

[Edited 2006-01-23 20:22:38]
 
norcal
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:22 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 15):
If the Chinese were that desperate to be playing in this field they would likely already be there. I fail to see what an FAL can give them that they couldn't have already reverse-engineered from one of the many A320s and 737NGs that the West has been so happy to sell them.

Maybe more detailed information about the plane itself and maybe more importantly knowledge about tooling and production techniques?

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 15):
Even if they do learn all of Airbus's A320 "secrets", by the time they're ready to build their own, Airbus and Boeing will already be on the next generation of single-aisle planes

 checkmark 

Quoting GARPD (Reply 16):
I guess my primary concern was the wing technology.

Wouldn't this all be old technology anyways? I think the bigger danger would be showing them how to make the wings rather than putting them together......still wouldn't this wing manufacturing technology be 20 years old as well and thus useless?

I think the main concern is not the transfer of technology but rather the possibility of losing money on this endeavor like many other aerospace companies have done. Also the loss of high tech jobs to the Chinese or to any foreign country overseas isn't good for Airbus employees.
 
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garpd
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:30 am

Again, fair and true answers folks.
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sabenapilot
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 4:41 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 19):
I think the main concern is not the transfer of technology but rather the possibility of losing money on this endeavor like many other aerospace companies have done.

I think this could be a valid concern, although the assembly line will be run by Airbus like any other line in Toulouse or Hamburg and thus fit in nicely to assure the monthly production of 32 A320s. As long as their is big enough of a backlog, their shouldn't be a problem filling this modest line of 4 per month too... One could for instance imagine that A320 orders from Asian customers would preferably be attributed to the Chinese production line, should the demand from China alone not be sufficient to keep the line running.

Quoting NorCal (Reply 19):
Also the loss of high tech jobs to the Chinese or to any foreign country overseas isn't good for Airbus employees.

It isn't really a loss of jobs we are looking at, it just means less growth for the European plants and even that is not certain, because if the increased demand from China is bigger than the monthly capacity of the factory in China itself, there will be spill over to the European A320 line.

Does all the outsourcing on the 787 mean job losses for Boeing workers, or does it safeguard their jobs by being able to offer a good product at a very competitive price? If outsourcing is well done, it can be a win-win for both, and Airbus are no idiots: expect this to be a well considered plan, and if there is one plane ideally placed for such an outsourcing, its the A320: its relatively old, fully amortized, In high demand from the region and has a backlog which Airbus alone can hardly cope with!
 
norcal
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 5:06 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 21):

Good post, as far as the jobs go I think that both companies are making compromises so to speak. Take Boeing for example with the 787, in order to lower their production costs they had to out source some of the work to cheaper labor. However by doing this they make their product more competitive and fill a lot of orders for it thus creating more jobs at Boeing. I think the key is to strike a balance so that both companies remain competitive but don't out source all of their work to other countries.

I think Globalization is a very important movement and that it will help stabilize the world greatly, but at the same time I don't like seeing first hand or hearing on the news that Americans are losing their jobs over seas that is associated with it.

I don't know any of the details about the Airbus plan, I guess I am just a little pessimistic given the other companies past attempts at this. I wish them the best and I am sure they have done their homework.
 
whitehatter
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 5:13 am

The main factor is not actual hardware but the design work.

China can build wings, but it might find it harder to replicate the experience and ability of the manufacturers to design and test wings for a native product. Being able to build something does not equate to being able to design it from scratch.

The A320 line in China will be fairly positive overall as all the design and fabrication of critical parts will be done by Airbus, with the Chinese plant supplying a lower cost workforce to stitch it all together. There is already pressure on existing facilities so the work has to be placed somewhere to keep the sales book flowing with some degree of flexibility.

The only technology transfer issues are some to do with electronics, but that has already been dealt with previously on aircraft sales to China. Some dual use components were replaced on the exported aircraft that the US Government were not too happy about.
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StarGoldLHR
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:16 am

I say best of luck to China.

They are the experts in price and production today.

If we have the technology and they have the facilities then it's win win for all by sharing.

If we were to take a more "protective" approach then China may develop their own, which could well be better.. and more threatening to Airbus.

Either way it's less productive for the world as a whole.

If we share and share alike then the playing field is much more even.

At the end of the day China can produce quality goods at a low price. If they didnt, products wouldnt be made there.
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scbriml
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:28 am

Quoting NorCal (Reply 19):
Maybe more detailed information about the plane itself and maybe more importantly knowledge about tooling and production techniques?

I think these are unlikely to be significantly different from those employed in MD-90 or ERJ manufacture, to which China already had/has access.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
hoya
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 9:11 am

Few questions, and please don't flame me for any of them. They are just questions.

Who will pay for this proposed assembly plant? Will Airbus cough up some dough to build it, or will it be financed by the Chinese?
Also, seeing how sensitive the US government is about technological transfers to China, does anyone envision the US making a huge stink about this due to US-made parts and technologies present on the A320, similar to how the US government prevented Brazil from selling military-spec ERJs to Venezuela's military?
Hoya Saxa!!
 
MEA-707
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 9:29 am

have licenced third country production lines ever been a huge success?
Of the more recent commercial aircraft, I remember the pooh-ha about the Romanian BAC 1-11 line, the US Fairchild F-27 line, the Chinese MD-80s and MD-90s, the Indian HS-748 and Do-228 lines and the Chinese Emb-145s. I believe they all failed to fullfill the expectations, with a handful to a few dozen built only.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
N79969
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 9:51 am

When someone asks a question as absurd as this....

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 6):
How many European and American companies produce their products in China already? Why would planes be different from DVD-players, televisions, radios etc???

They should not be making criticisms such as this:

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 14):
Richard Aboulafia is wrong more often and sooner than ever before these days...
I think he must be running for the 'aviation comedy cup' or something like that, because the credibility rating of this 'star' is falling faster than a asteroid nowadays.

Aboulafia is a highly credible commentator and the contents of his remarks are well-researched and logical. Your comments are most often not.

*****************

First of all there is a world of difference between the assembly of cheap, commoditized consumer electronics and building an airliner. Even if A320 technology will be middle-aged by the time they are assembled in China, there is risk in transferring certain engineering and manufacturing know-how to a low-cost potential competitor.

I think China is a far different place than the country in which MDD arrived in the 1980s. I also think that Airbus had done an outstanding job in establishing and growing a presence in China and ultimately outflanking Boeing in that market in recent years. I think they have a better chance of success than MDD and others that have tried and failed.

But make no mistake-- Airbus is taking a pretty signficant business risk by moving some assembly to China. It is certainly a bold move.

[Edited 2006-01-24 02:08:40]
 
Dougloid
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 9:57 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 6):
Besides, it will not be a Chinese company which will build A320s under license, it will be an Airbus factory set up in China as a joint venture with the Chinese.

Are the Chinese as ready to provide stoop labor without a payday down the road as you suggest?

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 7):
Please read this article by someone you like...or like to hate.

Dear Fellow China Watchers...

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/show...d=207

Damn! Beat me to the punch. He's not as sanguine about the future of these deals as a lot of people, is he?
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
abba
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 10:51 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Will the european governments take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?
Or will they turn a blind eye believing this will result in exclusivity for Airbus in China?
Short term answer to the long term?

Don't forget that the 320 is assembled in the very same way that Boeing is planning for the 787 - namely by putting together big pre-assembled pieces. The biggest production know how is not in putting the elements together but in building the elements in the first place.

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 7):
Dear Fellow China Watchers...

What a good joke. The very village idiot of aviation with along and proven record of having absolutely not the slightest of clues about this part of the world.

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 12):
id you see drawings for the next generation Chinese regional jet? It looks a lot like the MD80.

Again - the MD80 and the 320 are being build in very different ways.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 15):
I really don't understand why so many people are scared of this - the Chinese record in this area is far from great. Why shouldn't Airbus do it - it's already been done twice before.

I seriously doubt that they will be able to learn much from final assembly of a 320 that they would not be able to learn by looking one of the many 320 they already have.

Abba
 
trex8
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 11:04 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Will the european governments take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?



Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 12):
Did you see drawings for the next generation Chinese regional jet? It looks a lot like the MD80.

I think offering the Chinese a manufacturing line is more than stupid.

no more daft than the MD80 production in Shanghai a decade ago!

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 15):
I really don't understand why so many people are scared of this - the Chinese record in this area is far from great.

you may be on to something, they have had the blueprints for licence production of the RR Spey for over 2 decades and they still can't seem to get their act together and make any number worth talking about for their JH7
 
astuteman
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:13 pm

Quoting Abba (Reply 30):
Don't forget that the 320 is assembled in the very same way that Boeing is planning for the 787 - namely by putting together big pre-assembled pieces. The biggest production know how is not in putting the elements together but in building the elements in the first place.

The ability to design (and production engineer  Smile) such a complex product in a way that enables it to be assembled in this modular manner, and yet still satisfy the operational requirements, is THE biggest know-how.

If it is done correctly, the final assembly becomes a Piece of P**s (proverbially, not actually...).

In the last 30 years, large commercial aircraft manufacturing has gravitated towards a duopoly. The Chinese WILL build large commercial airliners, within the next 15-20 years maximum. I reckon it not just a smart long-term move, but inevitable that one of the big two goes into major partnership with the Chinese aviation industry whether they really want to or not.
 
Dougloid
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 12:17 am

Quoting Abba (Reply 30):
Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Will the european governments take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?
Or will they turn a blind eye believing this will result in exclusivity for Airbus in China?
Short term answer to the long term?


Don't forget that the 320 is assembled in the very same way that Boeing is planning for the 787 - namely by putting together big pre-assembled pieces. The biggest production know how is not in putting the elements together but in building the elements in the first place.

Quoting Confuscius (Reply 7):
Dear Fellow China Watchers...

What a good joke. The very village idiot of aviation with along and proven record of having absolutely not the slightest of clues about this part of the world.

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 12):
id you see drawings for the next generation Chinese regional jet? It looks a lot like the MD80.

Again - the MD80 and the 320 are being build in very different ways.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 15):
I really don't understand why so many people are scared of this - the Chinese record in this area is far from great. Why shouldn't Airbus do it - it's already been done twice before.

I seriously doubt that they will be able to learn much from final assembly of a 320 that they would not be able to learn by looking one of the many 320 they already have.

The notion that modular construction with imported bits will prevent the Chinese from learning anything of substance about the construction of airliners is somewhat misplaced. In fact, all aircraft are modular to a large extent. Whether the modules are pulled in from a vendor or built on site matters little.

The MD80 was the most modular of Douglas aircraft. In fact, nobody ever thought that "modularity" was a particularly novel idea. Just that subassemblies are built in plant or offsite by vendors, pulled in, and assembled. As I recall the largest assembly that was being built in the LGB plant was the nose structure, and SAIC had built a complete nose assembly to prove the production process. There was a move afoot to have SAIC build all the noses for Douglas MD80 series aircraft but it never took off.

The DC10 and MD11 tail and nose sections were built in Long Beach, but the wings and hull sections were brought in from Canada by railcar in the case of wings and in the case of hull sections from Convair in San Diego by barge. In turn, many parts and "sub modules" of the "modules" built in-plant were brought in from vendors from all over the world.

I am not willing to underestimate or minimize the ability of the Chinese to pull off the "big project". The following suggests that they do, in fact, have the ability, the science, the manpower and the expertise to pull off just about anything they put their minds and their backs into.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
sabenapilot
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 1:18 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 28):
Aboulafia is a highly credible commentator and the contents of his remarks are well-researched and logical.

Mr Aboulafia maybe is a credible commentator when he is reporting on US affairs, but when he is analyzing Airbus, or in fact anything that comes from 'socialistic Euroland', his deep-rooted hatred against lefties and anything they have achieved becomes all to clear.

His comments on pretty much anything that Airbus has done, does or will do are consistently only and very negative, do not contain even the slightest hint of any goodwill and predict nothing less than total disaster on all fronts, even if the program is as successful as the A320 ('sales of narrow bodies don't pay your bills'!). Can you come up with a report made by him on 1 single program or even on 1 single decision from A which he commented entirely positive on? If he is really that correct about all that he's been saying already for years, than how come A is what it is today?

Mr Aboulafia thinks of himself as a 100% American (which is okay in his personal life) and he can't stop thinking as one (which is a problem in his professional life). As soon as he is analyzing anything but B or US domestic airlines he fails to see the situation but from a US point of view (whereas he should get into the skin of the country of origin) and thus often all too easily dismisses good reasons, serious benefits, market demand and even profits as fluff, simply because he doesn't fully understand what is going on outside of the US.

Mr Aboulafia may be a very credible source in your eyes, but to many in the industry allover the world, he is seen as too American and thus not offering a correct global view of the situation.

Read him for sure, believe him if you like, but mind that he is unable to look at things but from an American point of view and that such lack of flexibility often leads to a wrong interpretation of things.

Anyway, back to topic:
I've heard that Airbus will be touring possible factory sites in China next week?
Anybody a good idea of which cities are on the shortlist?
What criteria they must have (link to the sea, international airport, ....)
etc...
 
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scbriml
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 1:31 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 33):
I am not willing to underestimate or minimize the ability of the Chinese to pull off the "big project". The following suggests that they do, in fact, have the ability, the science, the manpower and the expertise to pull off just about anything they put their minds and their backs into.

Maybe when it's finished on-time, on-budget and fully functional it will be a good example of what China can achieve. However, a large civil engineering project is not indicative of China's ability to produce a state-of-the-art civil airliner that might be attractive to buyers outside of the country.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
Dougloid
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 3:37 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 35):
Maybe when it's finished on-time, on-budget and fully functional it will be a good example of what China can achieve. However, a large civil engineering project is not indicative of China's ability to produce a state-of-the-art civil airliner that might be attractive to buyers outside of the country.

mechanical engineering is mechanical engineering last I heard. Structures, loads, properties of materials....it could be a pocket watch, or the Eiffel Tower. It's all the same engineering.

If they can do this, they can do anything.

Some of the best engineers at McDonnell Douglas were trained in the Phillipines as naval architects. Their shop sketches were better than most of our blueprints.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
astuteman
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 3:41 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 36):
Some of the best engineers at McDonnell Douglas were trained in the Phillipines as naval architects. Their shop sketches were better than most of our blueprints.

Ah, PROPER engineers !  Smile
 
A319XFW
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 4:05 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 34):
I've heard that Airbus will be touring possible factory sites in China next week?
Anybody a good idea of which cities are on the shortlist?
What criteria they must have (link to the sea, international airport, ....)

You are right to say that there are a few things to consider.

- How are you going to get the other parts (fuselage etc) there? Ship? Beluga? Antonov? Rail?
- How are you going to get the aircraft out again? Runway needed!
- What companies are there and what expertise can you get (people)?
- Who is bidding for it?

I think from a previous FI article they said there are 4 sites to be looked at.
 
VC-10
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 4:42 am

Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Will the european governments take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?
Or will they turn a blind eye believing this will result in exclusivity for Airbus in China?

Despite what this board would have you believe there is an awful lot of US technology in the Airbus product so, will the US Government take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?
 
A319XFW
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 4:47 am

Quoting VC-10 (Reply 39):
Quoting GARPD (Reply 3):
Will the european governments take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?
Or will they turn a blind eye believing this will result in exclusivity for Airbus in China?

Despite what this board would have you believe there is an awful lot of US technology in the Airbus product so, will the US Government take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?

Seeing as Chinese airlines already fly 777, A320, 737 etc nothing would go into the Chinese aircraft that are banned by embargos (like the giro chip that isn't allowed to go in to aircraft for China)

The only issue will be if the China line starts building aircraft for other countries where such things are allowed.
Isn't some MRO for non-Chinese airlines done in China now, so what would happen to the spares for those aircraft (that aren't allowed to be used in Chinese aircraft that is)?
 
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scbriml
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 4:56 am

Quoting VC-10 (Reply 39):
Despite what this board would have you believe there is an awful lot of US technology in the Airbus product so, will the US Government take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?

The US Government is obviously not concerned enough to prevent Airbus or Boeing from selling their planes to China by the hundreds. If there was anything of value to the Chinese on either the A320 or 737 (not to mention A330s, A340s, 767s, 757s, 777s and 747s) then they've already got it!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
trex8
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 9:48 am

Quoting VC-10 (Reply 39):
Despite what this board would have you believe there is an awful lot of US technology in the Airbus product so, will the US Government take kindly to technology knowledge being simply "gifted" to the chinese?

well they didn't stop MDC letting SAIC make MD80s in Shanghai or agreeing to allow them to make MD90s for a Chinese Trunkliner program so why would they stop Airbus?
 
MarshalN
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 10:24 am

Seriously, if China wants to learn anything really technological about these aircrafts, they'd have gotten it already just by taking it apart and putting it back together. Xiamen does maintenance for so many aircrafts in the world, there's really not much to learn on that front.

Final assembly is not rocket science. How to make an airframe that is commercially viable, from scratch, with rigorous testing and predictable results, that's the hard part and the part that Airbus isn't going to be giving to the Chinese in this exchange.

The Chinese can't even make domestically designed CARS that well after so much experience putting foreign cars together on Chinese soil. The only cars they have made so far are tin cans on wheels that don't sell particularly well in China, and certainly won't sell anywhere else. What makes people think things will be different for airplanes?

Stop the irrational fear of China and just look at it as a business case. If the China line can actually produce planes for Airbus beyond just the China order (or gives Airbus an advantage in any follow-on orders for narrowbodies) things will get very interesting. Given Airbus' rather large A320s backlog, this is one way to increase rate of production without having to deal with issues back at home that might accompany an expansion of the current assembly infrastructure.
 
abba
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 10:39 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 32):
The ability to design (and production engineer Smile) such a complex product in a way that enables it to be assembled in this modular manner, and yet still satisfy the operational requirements, is THE biggest know-how.

Right! And what can they learn by putting the pieces together - once designed - that they could not learn by taking one of the many 320s they already have apart?

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 34):
Mr Aboulafia may be a very credible source in your eyes, but to many in the industry allover the world, he is seen as too American and thus not offering a correct global view of the situation.

I have yet to see anything written by Mr Aboulafia about ANYTHING not American that is not plain nonsense (or worse). I will be happy to be corrected if someone really could find the lonely flicker of light in the otherwise deep dark. I have not even seen him PRETEND to do so.
Abba.
 
Dougloid
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Wed Jan 25, 2006 11:49 pm

Try it, you'll like it Abba. Unless you prefer grape Koolaid.

You don't have to agree with Aboulafia to admit that he's published a fair amount of work in some usually reliable journals. Here's a link to some of his publications. A lot of what I read there is not particularly pro United States.

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/articles/

I like his letters.
http://www.richardaboulafia.com/shownote.asp?id=207

Janes' seems to think he knows what he's talking about.

http://www.alibris.com/search/books/author/Aboulafia,%20Richard

I actually had a chance to use some of the work on the jet engine market that he and others generated. It was quite helpful.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
N79969
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RE: FI: China Set To BE Offered A320 Line

Thu Jan 26, 2006 12:16 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 34):
Mr Aboulafia maybe is a credible commentator when he is reporting on US affairs, but when he is analyzing Airbus, or in fact anything that comes from 'socialistic Euroland', his deep-rooted hatred against lefties and anything they have achieved becomes all to clear.



Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 34):
Mr Aboulafia may be a very credible source in your eyes, but to many in the industry allover the world, he is seen as too American and thus not offering a correct global view of the situation.



Quoting Abba (Reply 44):
I have yet to see anything written by Mr Aboulafia about ANYTHING not American that is not plain nonsense (or worse). I will be happy to be corrected if someone really could find the lonely flicker of light in the otherwise deep dark. I have not even seen him PRETEND to do so.

It seems that Aboulafia's biggest transgression is that he has not paid sufficient homage to Airbus. I have not seen any of his many detractors here actually criticize his actual analyses rather they take a shot at him personally for being an "idiot" or "too American" or whatever. It seems that "credibility" can be attained simply through some occasional hollow and gratuitous praise of Airbus.

Anyway as Dougloid points out, his work has been carried by respected publications as the Asian Wall Street Journal, Financial Times (a UK company), Jane's and Aviation Week and Space Technology. These are not hobbyist publications.

Look at his webpage:

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/bio/

His expertise is recognized in Europe among other places.

[Edited 2006-01-25 16:23:56]

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