kkfla737
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:28 am

Future Plans For Alliance Air?

Tue Jan 24, 2006 12:29 am

With the rebranding of IC as Indian and the phased retirement of the 737-200 what are IC's plans for Alliance Air? Will Alliance get any new planes or will they get the older A-320s as IC takes delivery of newer planes?
 
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HAWK21M
Posts: 30002
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2001 10:05 pm

RE: Future Plans For Alliance Air?

Tue Jan 24, 2006 1:47 am

Currently the plan is to retain 5 B732s & after they are Freighter converted,they will be used with NAG as Hub.

CD is scheduled to recieve some A319s in the Future.But due to Uncertainity of the Descion.Most pilots have already submitted their 6 months notice period to Mgmt.

regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
LAXDESI
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 8:13 am

RE: Future Plans For Alliance Air?

Tue Jan 24, 2006 2:04 am

I do not believe Indian Airlines can ever be competitive against the likes of Deccan and Spice in the LCC segment. It is best for them to drop the idea of an Alliance Air LCC and concentrate on improving its main brand Indian.

Even in the full service sector, the future is bleak as Indian has a net profit margin of 1% and Jet has a margin of 6%. I expect Indian to lose market share down to 20% over the next 3-5 years. They will hold on to 20% because they have infrastructure at BOM and DEL. Beyond five years, when there is better infrastructure at BOM and DEL, expect them to lose even more market share.

The only reason AIX is profitable is that they have monopoly on the ME sectors. Once the three years are up, expect LCC and full service carriers to take away market share. Better infrastructure will hasten the demise of both
AI and IC, in their current forms. Eventually, they will be fully privatized when they are almost irrelevant (say in 10 years).
 
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HAWK21M
Posts: 30002
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2001 10:05 pm

RE: Future Plans For Alliance Air?

Tue Jan 24, 2006 2:07 am

I feel in the next couple of year with Added Fresh Fleet both AI & IC would do well.There is already a change in the Attitude of staff.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
cloud4000
Posts: 483
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 3:38 am

RE: Future Plans For Alliance Air?

Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:41 am

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 3):
I feel in the next couple of year with Added Fresh Fleet both AI & IC would do well.There is already a change in the Attitude of staff.

Whatever the wholesale changes at AI and IC--change in attitude or induction of new aircraft-- both will feel pressure from the private sector; and long as the government run both AI and IC in such an ad hoc manner, both airlines will struggle in my opnion. It is best, in my opinion, that the government inject capital into both airlines in order to put them on a stronger financial footing and then privatize them.
Boston, USA
 
LAXDESI
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 8:13 am

RE: Future Plans For Alliance Air?

Tue Jan 24, 2006 9:34 am

Quoting Cloud4000 (Reply 4):
It is best, in my opinion, that the government inject capital into both airlines in order to put them on a stronger financial footing and then privatized them.

Another alternative is for Govt. to sell 51% share to the highest private bidder for both AI and IC, and sell the remaining shares over the next 5-10 years. This way GOI would not have to invest additional funds and provide guarantees for their aircraft purchases.

If Sahara can be valued at $500 million, a reasonable value for Indian should be around $2,000 million based on revenue multiplier and international flying rights. Indian has better infrastructure than Sahara does. AI's valuation should be somewhere between $1,000 million and $1,500 million. A good outcome would be for Kingfisher to buy AI and a new player (say Reliance or TATA) to buy Indian. This way we will have three full service carriers with domestic and international operations.
 
cloud4000
Posts: 483
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 3:38 am

RE: Future Plans For Alliance Air?

Tue Jan 24, 2006 10:35 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 5):
Another alternative is for Govt. to sell 51% share to the highest private bidder for both AI and IC, and sell the remaining shares over the next 5-10 years. This way GOI would not have to invest additional funds and provide guarantees for their aircraft purchases.

This is a good idea, with the provisio that the government cannot intefere for any reason.
Boston, USA

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