art
Posts: 2697
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:48 pm

Bit of idle speculation here: the 787 has near as dammit 300 orders at the moment. Any guesses as to how many there will be by the time of its maiden flight? 400-500? 500-600? 600+?

And one more thing: how much will they be worth in total?

As an aside, anyone know the highest number of frames ever ordered for a 100+ seat civil airliner before its first flight?

[Edited 2006-01-25 13:00:51]
 
pavlin
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:34 am

RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:51 pm

It sure will be a record. But surely more than 600
 
pavlin
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:34 am

RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:52 pm

It can also reach exactly 787!
 
Shenzhen
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RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:57 pm

First flight is just over a year and a half away... so one would think that it would probably be less then 500.
 
Tifoso
Posts: 432
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RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Wed Jan 25, 2006 9:09 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 3):

I agree. Boeing right now has 379 orders + commitments. If one were to discount Primaris (20) and Garuda Indonesia (10), then it is down to 349.

I doubt Boeing will be able to get more than 150 orders in the next year and a half. Somewhere between 450 and 500 is a reasonable number IMO.

[Edited 2006-01-25 13:10:48]
 
Matt72033
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 10:03 pm

RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Wed Jan 25, 2006 9:24 pm

Quoting Tifoso (Reply 4):
I agree. Boeing right now has 379 orders + commitments. If one were to discount Primaris (20) and Garuda Indonesia (10), then it is down to 349.

why would you discount them?
 
Tifoso
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:15 pm

RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Thu Jan 26, 2006 1:33 am

Quoting Matt72033 (Reply 5):
why would you discount them?

Primarius seems to be going nowhere. Also, Garuda placed their "order" on September 16th, and have yet to decide on a model, or make their orders firm.

Go here for more information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787
 
atmx2000
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Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Thu Jan 26, 2006 1:41 am

Quoting Tifoso (Reply 4):
I doubt Boeing will be able to get more than 150 orders in the next year and a half. Somewhere between 450 and 500 is a reasonable number IMO.

If Boeing launches the 787-10, they are very likely to win the EK order.

And there are several large RFPs due this year, like SQ and CX.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13808
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RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Thu Jan 26, 2006 3:32 am

In recent history, Garuda has paced orders that don't ever get filled at Boeing:

1999 18 73G, no deliveries
1996 6 772ER, no deliveries

I'll believe the 10 Garuda when number 1 is delivered.

But between EK, BA, SQ and AA, there should be some more 787 firm orders, and QF should firm up 45+20 by first flight as well. Not sure if it'll be 500 firm, but who can really know?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
767-332ER
Posts: 1974
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2001 1:20 pm

RE: 787 - How Many Orders Before First Flight?

Thu Jan 26, 2006 5:51 am

DL emerging from BK next year will also be an indicator for a good dozen to 20 order. Fuel prices and other factors will tell and DL is interested and knows the great potential this aircraft will have in the fleet as a future 767 replacement.
Twinjets...if one fails, work the other one twice as hard!!!

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