Kangar
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Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:13 am

Folks, Just noticed this comment attributed to Mr. Aboulafia, whose commentary I take with a pinch of salt at the best of times, but this one seems especially off the cuff:

" -- "2004 was the first year Airbus enjoyed a higher market share than Boeing (in revenue)," said Aboulafia. "The situation will stay neck-in-neck until 2009, when the 787 arrives (we forecast a one-year delay).

http://www.defenseworld.net/Military...r/7307-DefenseAerospacePressnews-1

Does anyone know on what basis/facts Aboulafia forecasts a delay for the 787, other than lazy journalism?

Cheers

Kangar
 
rj777
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:15 am

Mr. AbWHO?

Who is that?
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:18 am

Quoting Kangar (Thread starter):
"The situation will stay neck-in-neck until 2009, when the 787 arrives (we forecast a one-year delay).

Wow.... What a clown.
 
Kangar
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:18 am

"Respected" industry commentator
 
atmx2000
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:18 am

I don't know, but the article is 7 months old. And he could be referring to when Boeing takes over revenue marketshare leadership as opposed to 787 EIS. The 787 EIS is closer to mid 2008, and delivery rates during the first year won't be going at full throttle (unless Boeing stockpiles 787s before EIS).
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
Kangar
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:23 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 4):
I don't know, but the article is 7 months old. And he could be referring to when Boeing takes over revenue marketshare leadership as opposed to 787 EIS. The 787 EIS is closer to mid 2008, and delivery rates during the first year won't be going at full throttle (unless Boeing stockpiles 787s before EIS).

I thought that too, but even 7 months back, it was apparent that Boeing wide bodies were going to comfortably outstrip Airbus wide bodies this year in sales terms, that's a bit before 2009. Also, the fact that he put EIS as 2009 was why I thought he was saying the EIS would be delayed.
 
aerokiwi
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:33 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 4):
And he could be referring to when Boeing takes over revenue marketshare leadership as opposed to 787 EIS. The 787 EIS is closer to mid 2008, and delivery rates during the first year won't be going at full throttle (unless Boeing stockpiles 787s before EIS).

This is exactly how I read the quote.Boeing's civil aircraft revenue wont exceed that of Airbus until a year after entry of the 787. Maybe instead of "lazy journalism" it's more a case of lazy iterpretation?
 
N79969
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:37 am

Quoting Kangar (Thread starter):
http://www.defenseworld.net/Military...r/7307-DefenseAerospacePressnews-1

Does anyone know on what basis/facts Aboulafia forecasts a delay for the 787, other than lazy journalism?

He is a respected analyst. Perhaps he shares the same cautious view as Merrill Lynch who warned of "unknown unknowns" in the B787 development process.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/busine...772_air27.html

This link appears dead or archived...but that is where it was before. Sorry.
 
Kangar
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:41 am

Quoting Aerokiwi (Reply 8):
This is exactly how I read the quote.Boeing's civil aircraft revenue wont exceed that of Airbus until a year after entry of the 787. Maybe instead of "lazy journalism" it's more a case of lazy iterpretation?

He did say the 787 arrives in 2009, that's why I took it to mean the delay was in relation to EIS, or is the EIS scheduled for 2009? I always took it for 2008. Interpret that however you like.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:49 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 9):
He is a respected analyst.

He's taking a shot in the dark. If he's right, he gets more business, if he's wrong, no one really cares. He simply claims Boeing exceeded expectations.
 
Poitin
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:52 am

Quoting Kangar (Thread starter):
Does anyone know on what basis/facts Aboulafia forecasts a delay for the 787, other than lazy journalism?



Quoting Kangar (Reply 10):
He did say the 787 arrives in 2009, that's why I took it to mean the delay was in relation to EIS, or is the EIS scheduled for 2009? I always took it for 2008. Interpret that however you like.

Too many pints, I would say.

One of my favorite pastimes use to be going back to old forecasts made by "analysts" when I was in the computer came in Silly Con Valley, and seeing how accurate they turned out to be. Not very. Kangar, me lad, time for a pint.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
airfrnt
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:30 am

It would not surprise me to see delay's hit part of the 787 program. With the moaunt of new technology that is involved it would really surprise me if this program ran perfectly on time and under budget.
 
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keesje
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:38 am

Most sensible people (no perse Mr Aboulafia) see when a lot of new technologies is introduced at the same time (composites, 5000 psi, high power electronic actuators, bleedless engines, apu) the risk that there will be delays is high in e..g. cwertification. I expect Boeing to have calculated this in, as well as the launch customers in their contracts.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
PlaneDane
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:48 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 6):
Not likely, the 787 is simply overbudget, undermanned, behind schedule, and slightly overweight (1-3% last I checked, which is really good at this point). . . just like most new airplane programs before it . But its still well within the "range" of a last minute crunch (at least I hope so, unless something major pops up) to get everything done and out the door in time.

Where exactly do you get your information there, 787engineer? Overweight? Overbudget? Behind schedule? Like most new airplane programs?

I've worked for the company for over 23 years and what you're saying really surprises me.
 
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keesje
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 8:05 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 6):
Not likely, the 787 is simply overbudget, undermanned, behind schedule, and slightly overweight (1-3% last I checked, which is really good at this point). . . just like most new airplane programs ....

Where exactly do you get your information there, 787engineer? Overweight? Overbudget? Behind schedule? Like most new airplane programs?


& now its gone! Slip of the tongue or big brother watching?

Seriously I´m sure Boeing is putting all it´s efforts in to fix possible issues & get it in the air ASAP.

Hopefully we won´t see such a shameless fiesta as with the A380 delays & issues on a.net and in the US press.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
aerokiwi
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 8:14 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 21):
Hopefully we won´t see such a shameless fiesta as with the A380 delays & issues on a.net and in the US press.

Yes, how dare the press investigate and question things when they should tow the corporate and government line and keep their ungrateful traps shut  Yeah sure
 
787engineer
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 8:29 am

Quoting PlaneDane (Reply 19):

Where exactly do you get your information there, 787engineer? Overweight? Overbudget? Behind schedule? Like most new airplane programs?

I've worked for the company for over 23 years and what you're saying really surprises me.

Just what I hear from some of upper level managers when i've had a chance to chat with them about how the whole program is going in general. The plane is overweight in a few places and below target weight in others. I don't know exactly where it is now when everything's added together, but it was slightly overweight just a few months ago. Nothing significant that the detailed design process wouldn't iron out; its actually not as overweight as many of them expected at this point of the program. If it wasn't behind schedule there wouldn't be so many people working overtime now would there? Also if it wasn't undermanned they wouldn't still be hiring like crazy would they? And I've heard they've spent more than they've planned to at this point in the development process. This is what I've 'heard' from some sources and I do see indications that these things are true. Very few people in the world have actual evidence to disprove or prove these points, so take it for what its worth. . . just what's passed down the grapevine.

I think most new airplane programs have had their issues during development, whether it was budget, weight, performance, etc. They're simply hurdles we have to overcome before delivery. Like I said, despite all those things I cited they are considered within expectations. At 2 years from EIS most planes are a little overweight, or over budget, etc, as more analysis is done we will find more places to reduce weight, etc. Sometimes we find places where we need to add weight. . . its a long process. You have to remember the planning, scheduling, introduction of new technologies, and new techniques (in design (V5 instead of V4) as well as manufactureing (composites vs. Al)) was very aggressive to begin with. Boeing set some very lofty goals for itself with the 787.

I'll be the first to admit I'm new to the company and I'm a recent college grad, but I know my fair share about airplanes and that's what it looks like to me. Will the 787 first delivery have to be delayed? I certainly don't think so. . . that was the point of my post.

[Edited 2006-01-27 00:33:16]
 
flydreamliner
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 9:16 am

Boeing has made a lot of different aircraft, many of which have been very innovative. They know how long it takes to create an aircraft, and when they lay out a time table, they are building in time for working out things that go wrong, don't work like they should, and whatever else. Is it possible the airplane will be late, absolutely, no one can predict the future, but unless Boeing says "we're going to be late" - which they would, if they were, so as not to alienate their customer base, my guess is anyone claiming knowlege to the contrary is as reliable as a tv psychic.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
N79969
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 11:56 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 10):
He's taking a shot in the dark. If he's right, he gets more business, if he's wrong, no one really cares. He simply claims Boeing exceeded expectations.

I have confidence in Boeing but success cannot be taken for granted. Aboulafia is a smart guy. I would not blow his views off lightly
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 12:36 pm

My guess that Mr. A is expecting a delay due to the aggressive schedule that Boeing has put in place for the 787. Can anyone confirm that an alll new widebody has been launched and then entered service within 4 years.

It is very easy to guess that the airplane will be late, because a LOT of things have to go right for it to make the EIS date. Just look at the shortened certification period, as an example.

Cheers
 
787engineer
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 2:24 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 31):
Can anyone confirm that an alll new widebody has been launched and then entered service within 4 years.

Hmmm with a little research here on A.net, here's what I found:

B747: L-July 1966, EIS-January 1970; 3 years, 7 months (remember it was based off their USAF proposal)
B767: L-July 1978, EIS-September 1982; 4 years, 3 months
B777: L-October 1990, EIS-May 1995; 4 years, 8 months

A330: L-June 1987, EIS-November? 1993; 5 years, 6 months
A340: L-June 1987, EIS-March 1993; 4 years, 10 months
A380: L-December 2000 (wow, was it really that long ago  eek  ) EIS-December 2006, 6 years

DC-10: L-February 1968, EIS August 1971; 3 years, 7 months
MD-11: L-December 1986, EIS December 1990; 4 years (based on DC-10)

For the 787, launched in April 2004, first delivery is planned for August? 2008, that's 4 years and 5 months. I've always heard it would be built pretty quickly (aggresive scheduling), but it seems as if its pretty normal for Boeing airraft, other than the big leaps technologically, of course. All the data here is from A.net database, there are a few '?' Plz correct me if i'm wrong. *crosses fingers and hope I didn't count wrong* An engineer that can't count who would've guessed!  Silly  embarrassed 
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 3:59 pm

Wow.... I would have thought the 787 was quicker to market then previous models. Numbers don't lie.... thanks
 
SFORunner
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 4:59 pm

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 32):
For the 787, launched in April 2004, first delivery is planned for August? 2008, that's 4 years and 5 months. I've always heard it would be built pretty quickly (aggresive scheduling), but it seems as if its pretty normal for Boeing airraft, other than the big leaps technologically, of course.

Some of the 787s notable technologies originated with the Sonic Cruiser, so April 2004 isn't that "hard" of a start date.
 
astuteman
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:08 pm

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 23):
The plane is overweight in a few places and below target weight in others. I don't know exactly where it is now when everything's added together, but it was slightly overweight just a few months ago. Nothing significant that the detailed design process wouldn't iron out; its actually not as overweight as many of them expected at this point of the program. If it wasn't behind schedule there wouldn't be so many people working overtime now would there? Also if it wasn't undermanned they wouldn't still be hiring like crazy would they? And I've heard they've spent more than they've planned to at this point in the development process.

Sounds like a normal major programme to me. Every major design/construction project I've worked on has been in these waters at this stage. This would only be outrageously newsworthy if it were the A380 programme  Yeah sure

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 32):
I've always heard it would be built pretty quickly (aggresive scheduling)

Don't get carried away (everyone). It's the final assembly time that's getting blown away (from weeks to days). The rest will be pretty much as you were.
2-3 weeks reduction doesn't make much of a dent in a 4 1/2 year programme.
 
Tifoso
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Fri Jan 27, 2006 9:49 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 31):

It is very easy to guess that the airplane will be late, because a LOT of things have to go right for it to make the EIS date. Just look at the shortened certification period, as an example.

What worries me also is that Boeing is going to be building a lot of new frames in parallel with the certification process. If they find a big enough problem, all of those frames may need a lot of re-work.

Boeing must be under intense pressure; pulling it off on time and living up all their promises is going to be a challenge. But, I'm sure they will overcome it Big grin
 
airfrnt
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:14 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 35):

Sounds like a normal major programme to me. Every major design/construction project I've worked on has been in these waters at this stage. This would only be outrageously newsworthy if it were the A380 programme

It's only newsworthy on the A380 because the A380 still had major design issues (weight, vortex, possible engine problems) during flight testing. Just like it was only a issue with the A346 because the wing had problems that were not solved before the first planes where shipped.

Every plane tends to be overweight at specific points during it's development lifecycle. But if it is still overweight at certification and production, life gets more interesting really quickly.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:18 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 30):
Aboulafia is a smart guy. I would not blow his views off lightly

Not so smart he can predict Boeing's capability. Not so smart on much else either. The guy is drumming for business, nothing more, nothing less.
 
eha
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:32 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 23):
I'll be the first to admit I'm new to the company and I'm a recent college grad, but I know my fair share about airplanes and that's what it looks like to me. Will the 787 first delivery have to be delayed? I certainly don't think so. . . that was the point of my post.

you certainly will have to learn what you are entitled to communicate to the outside world....

E.
 
glacote
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Sat Jan 28, 2006 2:59 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 25):
the A380 still had major design issues (weight, vortex, possible engine problems) during flight testing.

The weight problem was alledgely moderate and easily fixed (no word about cost though). Fuel performance is alledgely better than advertised. There is no wake vortex issue. There has never been outside of A.net. There were very minor engine problems (first engine to be changed was due to a software bug reporting a non-existant over-consumption of oil; no flight testing delay, no redesign, no nothing).

There was a significant delay (6 months, may eventually be worse) alledgely due to a lack of preparation of the wiring. As a consequence Airbus has committed to create a Center of electronics IIRC.

So much for "major design issues"...
 
N79969
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Sat Jan 28, 2006 3:32 pm

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 26):
Quoting N79969 (Reply 30):
Aboulafia is a smart guy. I would not blow his views off lightly

Not so smart he can predict Boeing's capability. Not so smart on much else either. The guy is drumming for business, nothing more, nothing less.

How do you know all of this?

The Financial Times, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Jane's Intelligence Review, Asian Wall Street Journal, and other highly reputable publications carry his work. The National Defense University uses him as a lecturer. That is on top of his regular job in which he is paid for his opinions and analysis on the aerospace industry.

I would say that makes him pretty smart.
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: Aboulafia Comment Re: 787 Schedule

Sat Jan 28, 2006 4:06 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 29):
The Financial Times, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Jane's Intelligence Review, Asian Wall Street Journal, and other highly reputable publications carry his work. The National Defense University uses him as a lecturer. That is on top of his regular job in which he is paid for his opinions and analysis on the aerospace industry.

Haha. He has the kind of job that many of us would dream of . . . rather than having to huff and puff for free in our spare time on A.net!

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