keesje
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Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 9:00 am

Airbus hints the A380-800R might be launched in 2010-2011, before the A380-900.
http://www.aviationnow.com/shownews/05paris/aircraft12.htm

It should have a range of 18057km (9700nm) with a 53.000 kg payload. That would mean e.g. 420 passengers and 11.000 kg cargo.
http://www.civil-aviation.net/flugzeuge/a380.phtml

The destinations that could not be reached from e.g. Sydney would be limited.


I think the number of Aircraft required for ultra long haul will be limited. The baseline -800 can do 8000nm / 16 hours which is enough for more then 90% of all current long haul city pairs. However the R could do almost all current long haul flight without any payload restriction. That would be interesting for operators considering the proposed C7 and C11 convertible variants.

http://www.es.com/solutions/civil-a380.jpg

Will this R version for the 800 be what the B777-200ER was for the B777-200 and the 767-300ER for the 767-300?
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md90fan
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 9:24 am

Good to see the "R" name bacl  wink  What long haul pairs need this kind of capacity AND range?
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gigneil
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 9:26 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Will this R version for the 800 be what the B777-200ER was for the B777-200 and the 767-300ER for the 767-300?

Haha yes, but to be more precise it is what the A300-600R is to the A300-600.

N
 
atnight
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 9:30 am

Wow, interesting article... I'm surprised that Airbus says that SQ will exercise all of their options after the aircraft is introduced.... I guess SQ isn't thinking of sustaining the airline, but growing, which is what they should do.... One thing that pleases me, is to see that Airbus has plans for future versions, so that will make life more interesting in the future, especially for this huge bird...

Nevertheless, I still believe thought that before the version is offered, airlines would have to show strong interest in the variant and Airbus already having orders for the A380 around 250...

Of course, a version such as the one mentioned (A380-800R) would be an even more impressive airplane than the current giant of the skies, and would make a way for the long waited, more proportionate, A380-900....
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JoeCattoli
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 9:31 am

It would be nice to see... Actually an airplane with such a capacity could be developed not too hardly for Ultra-longhaul operations... Just limiting the maximum payload and Carrying special tanks in my opinion...
It would be really good news for qantas
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atmx2000
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 9:46 am

This article is from the Paris 2005 show. The article says only 154 orders are booked, as opposed to the 159 currently booked.

Has anything changed since then regarding the A380R? Given Airbus's long lead times for EIS of new models, shouldn't this already be launched for a 2010-2011 EIS?

It is a bit amusing they were talking about the evacuation test as something that they were going to do last summer.
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lehpron
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 9:54 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
It should have a range of 18057km (9700nm) with a 53.000 kg payload. That would mean e.g. 420 passengers and 11.000 kg cargo.

hehe, a supersized 777LR.
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A388
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 10:13 am

Interesting thread. I was also thinking what a ultra long range A380 would be like. Interesting to see how this will develop  Smile

A388
 
MidnightMike
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 11:03 am

Quote:
One major forthcoming test is emergency evacuation, to be conducted this summer in the Hamburg paint hangar. Airbus is recruiting 1,100 volunteers — ‘passengers’, reserves and safety crews — for the test, which will involve 853 passengers: 538 on the main deck and 315 on the top deck. This will simulate a short-haul, high-density layout with no galleys and no reserve cabin crews to assist the evacuation: there will be 18 flight attendants and two flight crew. The test is conducted in the dark, using exits on only one side of the aircraft. Forty per cent of the passengers must be female, 35% over 50, and 15% must be female and over 50. The test can be run twice in five days, and the objective is to get everyone out within 90 seconds.

This is what I have been waiting for, should be very interesting to see how this test pans out.....
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OldAeroGuy
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 11:53 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5):
This article is from the Paris 2005 show. The article says only 154 orders are booked, as opposed to the 159 currently booked.

Two comments:

Is news about the A380 so scarce that current threads have to re-hash articles that are 8 months old?

Winter winds make the SYD - LHR ESAD about 10,000 nm. The map would look a lot different then.
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trex8
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 12:28 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5):
Has anything changed since then regarding the A380R? Given Airbus's long lead times for EIS of new models, shouldn't this already be launched for a 2010-2011 EIS?

if its based on the strengthened A380F structure they may need less lead time
 
aerohottie
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:32 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
It should have a range of 18057km (9700nm) with a 53.000 kg payload. That would mean e.g. 420 passengers and 11.000 kg cargo.



Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
The destinations that could not be reached from e.g. Sydney would be limited.

This aircraft could however operate AKL/LON direct year round with the outbound and return sectors flown in an easterly direction... kinda funny as SYD/LON is a shorter great circle distance, but still couldn't operate this flight...hehehe
What?
 
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LTU932
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:49 pm

Quoting Aerohottie (Reply 11):
This aircraft could however operate AKL/LON direct year round with the outbound and return sectors flown in an easterly direction... kinda funny as SYD/LON is a shorter great circle distance, but still couldn't operate this flight...hehehe

Indeed very funny. I do wonder though if there would be a market for an A380-800R, because the current C-Market for ULR aircraft is very limited as it is.
 
whitehatter
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 7:09 pm

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 12):
Indeed very funny. I do wonder though if there would be a market for an A380-800R, because the current C-Market for ULR aircraft is very limited as it is.

This depends on a number of factors.

The A388R could be used by carriers as a higher MTOW and longer range version into routes which are borderline B/C routes, or used to properly develop C market routes with a bigger cargo payload than curent C market offerings can uplift.

It's all down to economics. Airbus are probably floating the idea to see if it has any traction with the carriers before going to a design and quote phase on the heavier and longer range variant. Expect to see quite a few proposed variants being discussed just as happened with the early 747 models, as airlines start to think about what to do with all that volume.

I am actually more interested in whether Airbus can offer an interesting combi version, as they could offer an aircraft with 747 passenger capacity plus the payload of a dedicated freighter aircraft in one runway movement.
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leelaw
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 7:39 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Will this R version for the 800 be what the B777-200ER was for the B777-200 and the 767-300ER for the 767-300?

Perhaps. However, IIRC, the 772ER and 763ER were officially launched and already in the pipeline well before the rollout, maiden flights, and EIS of the standard versions of the 772 and the 763. By way of comparison the nascent A380-800R would already be rather late in the development cycle.

Quoting Atnight (Reply 3):
Nevertheless, I still believe thought that before the version is offered, airlines would have to show strong interest in the variant and Airbus already having orders for the A380 around 250...

It may well take the launch of the A380-800R to push overall sales of the A380 program to 250 units and beyond. If you apply Keesje's analogy/comparison to the 772ER and 763ER, it was the "ER" derivatives that were the sales successes, not the standard versions.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 9):
Is news about the A380 so scarce that current threads have to re-hash articles that are 8 months old?

Apparently, the dearth of current news hasn't given the cheerleaders much to shake their pom-poms over.

[Edited 2006-02-04 11:45:01]
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CRJ900
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 11:12 pm

From that map it looks like the A388R cannot do Azores islands-SYD non-stop... well, then I'm soo NOT impressed! Airbus better come up with somehting more substantial...  Wink  Yeah sure
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N79969
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sat Feb 04, 2006 11:42 pm

That is an interesting article. I wish Airbus would provide more of it, more often.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5):
It is a bit amusing they were talking about the evacuation test as something that they were going to do last summer.

This threw me off as well. I thought that the date was a mistake....
 
A319114
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 12:06 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 14):
However, IIRC, the 772ER and 763ER were officially launched and already in the pipeline well before the rollout, maiden flights, and EIS of the standard versions of the 772 and the 763. By way of comparison the nascent A380-800R would already be rather late in the development cycle.

The standard A380-800 already has quite an impressive range, opposed to the 772 and 763. You can compare this A380-800R situation to the 747-400, which by itself already has quite some range, but that was taken a step further with the 747-400ER, which flew 11 years after the standard -400.
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N79969
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 12:31 am

These two Airbus documents contain some updated information on the A380 and also Airbus in general:

http://www-org.airbus.com/store/mm_r..._object_file_ANNUALREVIEW2006E.pdf

http://www-org.airbus.com/store/mm_r...ect_file_AirbusLetterJANUARY-E.pdf

In the annual report (for the press), they make no mention whatsoever that the A380's 6-month delay. That is a strange ommission and it is material information. I would have expected not only a reference but also an explanation of the problem, the cause, and how they solved it.
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 12:47 am

Quoting A319114 (Reply 17):
The standard A380-800 already has quite an impressive range

My understanding is that the payload capability of the standard A380 decreases significantly as the mission stage lengths approach the maximum range of 8000nm on certain routes because of wind conditions, etc. The A388R would probably make a lot of sense to boost payload on the longer Trans-Pacific routes like HKG-LAX/SFO and MEL/SYD-LAX.
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mohamed1
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 2:27 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 19):

My understanding is that the payload capability of the standard A380 decreases significantly as the mission stage lengths approach the maximum range of 8000nm on certain routes because of wind conditions, etc. The A388R would probably make a lot of sense to boost payload on the longer Trans-Pacific routes like HKG-LAX/SFO and MEL/SYD-LAX.

That seems fair enough.
I wonder however if the A380-700R could do something like this better !it would ever an extra peace of range for the famous LHR-SYD and would carry more payload , with hgih dense A387F possibilty. The A380 as an ultarranger would be quit good itself as it would lower CASM of these long flights clearley compared to other aircrafts and frequency isn't that important on an 200+hour flight.
The A380 could also add a nice peace of added comfort , For example enhanced EConomy with 9 abreast (as wide as premium economy today) and a decent pitch, Upper Deck Bis and F only and a small bar or lounge to beat the time with nothing more. (Like SQ on the A345).
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 2:33 am

Boeing found little interest in their ULR 747-500 when the shopped it about a decade ago. And while I am sure Boeing would prefer not to canabalize sales of the 777-200LR model, a 747-8LR would have the ability to carry at least 300 folks between any two points on the planet - pole to pole or IDL to Prime Meridian.

So other then QF, and maybe EK, would there be a big demand for an A388R model? Of course, like the 772LR, it won't cost Airbus much to make it, so even if QF and EK are the only ones, if they want a dozen to a score each, it's probably worth the effort (since it would hurt sales of both the 748 and the 772LR).
 
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glideslope
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 2:41 am

They are going to need some special cargo for an operator to make money with only 420 PAX. 550-600 PAX would have a chance.  Smile
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gigneil
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 2:44 am

Quoting Mohamed1 (Reply 20):
I wonder however if the A380-700R could do something like this better !it would ever an extra peace of range for the famous LHR-SYD and would carry more payload , with hgih dense A387F possibilty.

Like we saw with the A340-200 and the 747SP, larger planes with more range are much preferable to smaller ones.

An A387 would have astronomical CASM. An A388R would have less so.

N
 
atmx2000
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 4:03 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 24):
Like we saw with the A340-200 and the 747SP, larger planes with more range are much preferable to smaller ones.

Except, planes the same size as the A340-200 or smaller with greater range are selling well now.

Quote:
An A387 would have astronomical CASM. An A388R would have less so.

Which is because the A380 is a platform that won't shrink easily to A387 size enough of a weight reductions because the platform was designed for a stretch, plus the A380 manufacturing infrastructure is built to produce a small number of planes per year, so fixed costs are spread over a smaller number of aircraft which will make it harder to lower the A387's price enough.
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USADreamliner
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 4:46 am

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

I was hoping for a Sydney-Azores nonstop flight...damn.


USADreamliner  Big grin
 
WAH64D
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:02 am

Current industry opinion is that the oil price is about as high as its going to get. We are looking at a big drop in prices throughout the next 4-24 months. This aircraft could do very well indeed with falling JET-A1 prices.
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mohamed1
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:05 am

why is it falling ? who said this ? The only thing i can think off is because of winter calling down and nothing more.
 
A342
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:08 am

A very intersting development that I was waiting for !

Judging by the link provided by Kessje, it has about the same MTOW as the A388F. They could go beyond that, given that the wing and fuselage are strong enough, and another main gear would have to be added as well as new more powerful engines.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:09 am

Well the speculators are the ones who have been pushing it real high, but the producers (like OPEC) have to worry that if prices stay too high, it encourages conservation and research into alternative sources. So in time demand falls, supply stays the same, and prices collapse like they did after the first Persian Gulf War when oil went to like $15 a barrel or so.

So I expect OPEC to ramp up supply as needed to keep oil in the $40 a barrel range.
 
mohamed1
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:16 am

What , tell me that isn't true. Will those alternate fuels be avaialable in a few weeks or what ? They need time !And ramping up supply isn't easy too.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:26 am

Quoting Mohamed1 (Reply 31):
Will those alternate fuels be avaialable in a few weeks or what?

Of course not, but when oil was "cheap", nobody cared about conservation or alternative energy. While hybirds now are mostly being bought as a "political" or "fashion" statement (since even at current gasoline prices, the premium for the technology is not recovered for more then a half-decade), if oil continues to stay high - much less go higher - then demand for those technologies will increase, providing the financial incentive and resources to develop newer and better technology and bring it to market sooner, cheaper. And once the "premium" becomes minimal and the savings start being recovered much earlier, then more people switch over to the technology.

Quote:
And ramping up supply isn't easy too.

No, but it's not horrendously difficult, either. Of course, the real issue now is not so much the supply of raw crude, but the inability to quickly refine it into usable product, that keeps the cost of refined product high.
 
A319XFW
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:31 am

Quoting A342 (Reply 29):
Judging by the link provided by Kessje, it has about the same MTOW as the A388F. They could go beyond that, given that the wing and fuselage are strong enough, and another main gear would have to be added as well as new more powerful engines.

And where would you want to fit another main gear - the existing space allocation for the gears is tight enough as it is.
A potential A388R would have a centre tank which the current A388 doesn't have and which is an (currently unused) option on the A388F.
 
LPLAspotter
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:36 am

RATS! I guess us Azoreans will not be getting any non-stop flights to SYD! I was sure there was a market for it  

LPLAspotter

[Edited 2006-02-04 21:41:28]
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atmx2000
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 5:39 am

Quoting A342 (Reply 29):
A very intersting development that I was waiting for !

Well, I don't know why you were waiting for it, as the article is from last summer's Paris 2005 Air Show.

The question still remains has there been any change on this front in the last 6 months. I imagine that Airbus is more concerned about getting the A350 out and gravely concerned about their major weakness in low 300 to mid 400 pax market. Whatever they said in Paris 2005 is out of date. The evacuation tests weren't completed when originally suggested and have still not been performed. SQ spent much of the latter half of last year bickering with Airbus over penalties for late delivery of the A380, which had only been officially announced just before the Paris Air show. I don't know what SQ's views on taking all A380 options are at this point.
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LTU932
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 6:00 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 13):
The A388R could be used by carriers as a higher MTOW and longer range version into routes which are borderline B/C routes, or used to properly develop C market routes with a bigger cargo payload than curent C market offerings can uplift.

It's all down to economics. Airbus are probably floating the idea to see if it has any traction with the carriers before going to a design and quote phase on the heavier and longer range variant. Expect to see quite a few proposed variants being discussed just as happened with the early 747 models, as airlines start to think about what to do with all that volume.

I guess you're right. Let's see what will happen with the A388R and what exactly A wants to offer.

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 13):
I am actually more interested in whether Airbus can offer an interesting combi version, as they could offer an aircraft with 747 passenger capacity plus the payload of a dedicated freighter aircraft in one runway movement.

We have to remember that the FAA is very strict when it comes to certify a Combi, but I personally would not see any problems, if the upper deck becomes the dedicated PAX deck (though maybe the ceiling as it curves may be an issue) and the main deck the freighter deck. Problem is, no such Combi has ever been designed before, as all others had part of the main deck shut down for cargo. I wonder if an A388 Combi would seriously affect the range at MTOW on the standard A388. Maybe that's where an A380-800R could come into play as well.
 
airbazar
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 6:43 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
So in time demand falls, supply stays the same, and prices collapse like they did after the first Persian Gulf War when oil went to like $15 a barrel or so.

What a load of crap. The only people who may agree with you are the Oil industry and the American automotive industry. China's and India's ever increasing apetite for oil will only crontribute to greater demand, and OPEC supply is already at close to maximum output. Anyone who belives Oil prices will ever decrease is living in a dream.
 
A342
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 6:56 am

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 33):

Maybe not a "full" one, I was thinking about one with 2 wheels, à la A342/343.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 35):
Well, I don't know why you were waiting for it, as the article is from last summer's Paris 2005 Air Show.

Uh, maybe I didn´t know about it until now ?
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 27):
Current industry opinion is that the oil price is about as high as its going to get. We are looking at a big drop in prices throughout the next 4-24 months. This aircraft could do very well indeed with falling JET-A1 prices.

I was under the impression that with what's going one in Iran at the moment that oil is slightly below a short term high (short term being the last 2 years... and slightly below meaning $3). Given that the Iran situation is not going to get any better anytime soon (probably worse) I really think that oil is not at a peak just yet.
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WAH64D
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:07 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 37):
What a load of crap. The only people who may agree with you are the Oil industry and the American automotive industry. China's and India's ever increasing apetite for oil will only crontribute to greater demand, and OPEC supply is already at close to maximum output. Anyone who belives Oil prices will ever decrease is living in a dream.

I'll quote you on this one next month. OPEC are a cartel and nothing more. In any other business, they'd have been shut down by force. OPEC are not the only oil producers in the world, they can only dictate the price so much. Current prices are not sustainable. China produces a good deal of their own oil requirement, Russia makes up most of the rest for them.

Oil prices WILL decrease in coming months. The economy of scale dictates that prices can only go so far before significant demand is lost. I've yet to hear from one credible analyst who doesn't think prices are pretty much as high as they can go.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
N79969
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:15 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 40):
I'll quote you on this one next month. OPEC are a cartel and nothing more. In any other business, they'd have been shut down by force. OPEC are not the only oil producers in the world, they can only dictate the price so much. Current prices are not sustainable. China produces a good deal of their own oil requirement, Russia makes up most of the rest for them.

Oil prices WILL decrease in coming months. The economy of scale dictates that prices can only go so far before significant demand is lost. I've yet to hear from one credible analyst who doesn't think prices are pretty much as high as they can go.

Nicely stated. I though about responding to Airbazar's comment which took a partial quote, distorted the contents, and insulted the messenger. But you did far better than I could have at this point. So few people understand the dynamic nature of the supply and demand for energy, the role of technology, and so on. (Although I do agree with Smokeyrosco about the Iran wild card)

A drop in oil prices is just what the doctor ordered for Airbus and especially the A380. If the price of crude ever fell back to the prices of the late 1990s, Airbus could sell quite a few A380.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:27 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 41):
A drop in oil prices is just what the doctor ordered for Airbus and especially the A380. If the price of crude ever fell back to the prices of the late 1990s, Airbus could sell quite a few A380.

For that to the would also have to return to the level that it was in the late 90s and early 00s. The strong dollar hid an increase in the value of oil during this time, and a significant reason for the increase in oil prices is the drop of the dollar against the major trading currencies. Of course if the dollar increases in value, EU labor costs become a smaller portion of the A380's cost and Airbus can cut prices in dollars to stimulate demand without cutting profits, so Airbus would doubly benefit.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
WAH64D
Posts: 744
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:14 am

RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:28 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 41):
Nicely stated. I though about responding to Airbazar's comment which took a partial quote, distorted the contents, and insulted the messenger. But you did far better than I could have at this point. So few people understand the dynamic nature of the supply and demand for energy, the role of technology, and so on. (Although I do agree with Smokeyrosco about the Iran wild card)

A drop in oil prices is just what the doctor ordered for Airbus and especially the A380. If the price of crude ever fell back to the prices of the late 1990s, Airbus could sell quite a few A380.

I agree with you 100%. A lower oil price would benefit A380 and also the B748. Some people just can't get it through their heads that you can only sell something for a price thats affordable for the buyer. Right now, a hell of a lot of buyers are on the line between just being able to afford the volume of petroleum products they are used to and having to cut back on petroleum product usage.

When you consider that the vast majority of all propulsion fuels are used by private vehicles and the price of Unleaded Petrol throughout most of Europe sits at around the equivalent of $6 per US Gallon, its easy to see that the current price is completely unsustainable. If the current high prices continue, we will see major damage to many National and thereby International economies.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:32 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 41):
A drop in oil prices is just what the doctor ordered for Airbus and especially the A380.

I thought the A380 was the antidote for high oil prices. Now it appears not to be the case.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
A319XFW
Posts: 1519
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:41 am

RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:39 am

Quoting A342 (Reply 38):
Maybe not a "full" one, I was thinking about one with 2 wheels, à la A342/343.

That won't happen - as far as I understand, the landing gear for the A388F would also be used for a possible A389, which would have a higher MTOw and not need an extra gear.
 
N79969
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 7:46 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 44):
Quoting N79969 (Reply 41):
A drop in oil prices is just what the doctor ordered for Airbus and especially the A380.

I thought the A380 was the antidote for high oil prices. Now it appears not to be the case.

I am not sure how that idea got started although Keesje likes to make that argument repeatedly even though people have explained the fallacy multiple times. (It is weird even for a fallacy, as I cannot see how one could logically reason that the A380 would benefit from high oil prices.)

I think a very simple way of understanding the effect is to realize that the A380 has a very large gas tank to fill. If the price of fuel goes up, that already sizeable fuel bill will go up. Simultaneously, operators will have to find a way to cover the cost by raising ticket prices (or other means) which would likely adversely impact demand. In short, you have higher cost and lower revenue. I admit this is a very abbreviated, simplified explanation.

If the price of fuel falls, most of the opposite would be true and the A380 would become a cash cow for operators. The A380 was conceived before 9/11 and no one really expected fuel to be where it is at today.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 8:20 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 46):
I think a very simple way of understanding the effect is to realize that the A380 has a very large gas tank to fill. If the price of fuel goes up, that already sizeable fuel bill will go up. Simultaneously, operators will have to find a way to cover the cost by raising ticket prices (or other means) which would likely adversely impact demand. In short, you have higher cost and lower revenue. I admit this is a very abbreviated, simplified explanation.

Of course, airlines could try and load up passengers and carry them on shorter hub to hub routes that do have significant demand and decrease emphasis on long haul non stops. The problem with that idea is that many premium and business passengers won't be happy with such indirect service, and may go to airlines offering nonstop service. Plus the A388 seems somewhat overbuilt to be used as airplane for short and medium haul routes. Plus if more countries require transit visas, indirect routes become less attractive.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 8:37 am

So to do 10000nm, it would have what, 380 seats? 380/550 = 70%. 70% of 300 seats on a 772LR is 210. QF seems to want at least 250 seats on that jet to make it work. So why would they jump at this 70% offering?

If the 388R can't do 10000nm with 480 seats and profitable cargo, it is no better of an answer than the 772LR, no matter how certain people try to spin it...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Stoney
Posts: 199
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2005 2:37 am

RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:33 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 43):
When you consider that the vast majority of all propulsion fuels are used by private vehicles and the price of Unleaded Petrol throughout most of Europe sits at around the equivalent of $6 per US Gallon, its easy to see that the current price is completely unsustainable. If the current high prices continue, we will see major damage to many National and thereby International economies.

Even though I think this is the wrong thread for such a discussion:
Actually the price of Gasoline even declined with the time. Back in the early 80ies gasoline was at 1.50 sFr. per liter. Now, 25 Years later its right back there after being at a low of 1.10 sFr. per liter sometime in the late 90ies. Even if we assume that the inflation is at 3%, which is incredibly low, but a pretty accurate longtime guess in Switzerland, gas would have to be at least 3 sFr. per litre to be just as expensive as back in the 80ies.

Overall meaning: gas got less expensive by what it's really worth, but more expensive if you only look at the dollar value without thought of inflation etc.

Ps: gas is so expensive in Europe because of the high taxes, that's the reason we don't feel higher oil prices that much (1 dollar to 2 dollars is an increase of 100%, but 6 dollars to 7 dollars is just an increase of 1/6).

Greetz
Stoney
BAZL - Bundesamt gegen Zivilluftfahrt - royally screwing around with swiss aviation
 
antares
Posts: 1367
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 4:49 pm

RE: Airbus A380-800R Ultra Long Haul Operations

Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:39 am

Ikramerica,

I spoke to one of my media contacts yesterday about the -200LR and he said Lars Andersen said in a progress briefing this week that it would have a tough time doing Sydney-London at any temperature leaving Sydney and that Boeing was recalculating field length requirements in the event of extreme temperatures.

(The other interesting comment seems to have been that Boeing has presented an option to Qantas never to fly the jet non-stop to London but Frankfurt instead, then diverting to London to cheat on the reserve fuel rules. This didn't sound encouraging to me, but I don't understand the art of micro-management of fuel in passenger jets, and would hate to be doing the London diversion trick when some sort of crisis or abrupt weather change shut down Heathrow and a few other centres at the very last moment.)


The query was provoked by the number of days when temperatures at the airport have exceeded 40 C, in fact they have been over 46 on two recent occasions. The atmospheric research office at the CSIRO which is the national research body predicted several years ago that the incidence of days of above 35C temperature in Sydney and similar cities would become the number for temperatures of more than 40C in a fairly short term.

This is serious for all types of jets of course, and the problem will not be limited to Sydney.

Given the need to make money, I suspect both Airbus and Boeing have an opportunity here to create from the A380 and 747-8 families planes that will fly non-stop for up to 21 hours with a commercially attractive mix of classes and cargo.

However the passenger numbers required for viability may not be as high as you suggest. According to an admittedly older BA timetable I picked up before I vowed never again to fly with them it has a 747-400 with 288 seats (first 14, business 70, world traveller plus 30 and world traveller minus 174). The same timetable shows the 777-200ER which has the same cabin dimensions as the -200LR as seating first 14, business 48, world traveller plus 40 and world traveller minus 125, or a total of 227 seats.

Qantas would have to offer something a damn sight more comfortable than BA's narrow business class seats to stay in the game on very long flights, and I assume the new BA product will do that too (or else). This may explain suggestions that all SQ wanted in a 777-200LR is 202 seats, but with 12 of them fabulous first class suites that would have been uneconomic in the A345s.

The burning (!) issue may be recoverability of the ultra long range twin jet on say an MTOW departure from LHR or SYD on increasingly hot summer days when one engine fails a long way down the runway.

I'm not qualified to say whether or not a quad would be inherently better to be in if one engine goes bang at the wrong instant on one of these incredibly long takeoff rolls, so perhaps someone can expand on that.

Antares

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