nwab787techops
Posts: 166
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 7:57 am

How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Mon Feb 06, 2006 10:51 pm

I was on a CO flight from EWR-TPA this weekend and there was only 60 or 70 on the B737-800. And I'v see CO has put more flights on jetblue routs. How long do you think jetblue can fight, till they get the boot form EWR?
 
Jeff G
Posts: 438
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2002 9:56 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Mon Feb 06, 2006 11:17 pm

Well if it was a CO aircraft with only 70 to 80 on board, what makes you think it's JetBlue who should cut capacity on those routes?
 
Alitalia744
Posts: 3777
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 8:22 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Mon Feb 06, 2006 11:25 pm

Quoting Jeff G (Reply 1):
Well if it was a CO aircraft with only 70 to 80 on board, what makes you think it's JetBlue who should cut capacity on those routes?

Exactly. I'm no fan of jetBlue, but CO has to watch it.

CO has more issues coming and obviously their CEO already has placed blame:

""We continue to face significant challenges," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner. "The price of oil still hovers at record high prices, JetBlue has invaded our Newark hub, Delta is using its bankruptcy advantage to expand into our profitable international markets and United Airlines, flush with $3 billion in exit financing and greatly reduced costs, is coming out of bankruptcy."

Looks like CO's stuck between a rock and a hard place Wink
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
nwab787techops
Posts: 166
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 7:57 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Mon Feb 06, 2006 11:38 pm

Quoting Jeff G (Reply 1):
Well if it was a CO aircraft with only 70 to 80 on board, what makes you think it's JetBlue who should cut capacity on those routes?

CO has a hub in EWR if you didn't know. CO has PAX coming form NRT or LGW to lets say FL, that help pay for what they loose with pont to pont PAX.
 
richierich
Posts: 3295
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 12:58 am

Quoting Nwab787techops (Reply 3):
with pont to pont PAX

Bridge to bridge passengers?
None shall pass!!!!
 
AA737-823
Posts: 4905
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2000 11:10 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 2:03 am

I don't think he was necessarily suggesting that it should be JetBlue that cuts capacity- reread his statement.

I think he was making the supposition that Continental has a stronger arm and more to lose, and also deeper pockets. (that last part may or may not be true, but JetBlue DID just post a loss, so now they're in line with everybody else in one sense).
Anyhoo, he points out that Conti has not rolled over and played dead to JetWho... they've decided to fight. The consequence of that for the consumer is a glut of market capacity, low fares, and more flight choices. The consequence of that to the airlines is lower yields and bigger losses. Which is what Continental is placing their bets on- that they can out lose JetBlue. Or, at least, Jet Blue will give up first.

Will they? Time will tell. Continental has a LOT to lose at EWR, so I suspect they'll fight pretty long, hard, and dirty. It's a tough battle- B6 has leather and free TVs. Continental has first class, some perks, and meal service on transcons.

Continental battles Southwest in Houston, so THEORETICALLY, the B6 and CO could peacefully coexist in the New York.

I just don't understand why JetB wanted EWR- they've got Delta dead in the water at JFK, so what's the idea trying to strangle Newark???
I'm sure they've got it figured out somehow.

Hope this broadens the subject and adds detail to the discussion.
R
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 2:07 am

One flight with 60-70 does not a problem make. I've been on florida routes on CO that B6 also runs that are completely full. Depends on the flight and day.

But to answer the question, B6 and CO both posted losses for the quarter. B6's loss was larger, despite being a smaller airline.

if it is a war of attrition, EWR seems to be pulling ahead, even if B6 is doing well at EWR.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ARGinLON
Posts: 550
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:26 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 2:19 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
don't think he was necessarily suggesting that it should be JetBlue that cuts capacity- reread his statement.

I think he was making the supposition that Continental has a stronger arm and more to lose, and also deeper pockets. (that last part may or may not be true, but JetBlue DID just post a loss, so now they're in line with everybody else in one sense).
Anyhoo, he points out that Conti has not rolled over and played dead to JetWho... they've decided to fight. The consequence of that for the consumer is a glut of market capacity, low fares, and more flight choices. The consequence of that to the airlines is lower yields and bigger losses. Which is what Continental is placing their bets on- that they can out lose JetBlue. Or, at least, Jet Blue will give up first.

Will they? Time will tell. Continental has a LOT to lose at EWR, so I suspect they'll fight pretty long, hard, and dirty. It's a tough battle- B6 has leather and free TVs. Continental has first class, some perks, and meal service on transcons.

Continental battles Southwest in Houston, so THEORETICALLY, the B6 and CO could peacefully coexist in the New York.

I just don't understand why JetB wanted EWR- they've got Delta dead in the water at JFK, so what's the idea trying to strangle Newark???
I'm sure they've got it figured out somehow.

Hope this broadens the subject and adds detail to the discussion.
R

You forgot to mention that CO has way more destinations ex EWR than B6 (including international)l that helps enormously to keep its onepass members onboard as long as the fares are competitive with B6

You will see CO going out of business before giving anything away at EWR to B6.
 
IAHFLYR
Posts: 3943
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2005 12:56 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 3:21 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
Continental battles Southwest in Houston

They don't compete out of the same airport.....SWA doesn't fly to IAH anymore.
Any views shared are strictly my own and do not a represent those of any former employer.
 
D950
Posts: 472
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 12:17 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 4:08 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 5):
just don't understand why JetB wanted EWR- they've got Delta dead in the water at JFK, so what's the idea trying to strangle Newark???
I'm sure they've got it figured out somehow.

They have adeptly left no (I can't get there) excuse not to fly them,with LGA covered also. Love or hate, the little minds are ticking.
Resting on your laurels is a synonym for flirting with disaster
 
tommy767
Posts: 4658
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 12:18 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 4:33 am

JBlu is doing well at EWR. That is for certain. But seriously...how much bigger is CO at EWR than JB? If you ask me, CO has to watch it's ass on certain routes (florida) but they have such a loyal fan base in the NYC area that they have little to worry about on most other routes.

When people think EWR they think CO and not JB.

Tommy in EWR/LAX.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 4:48 am

Maybe they need different planes for time of day........an E195 with 60-70 pax probably would be more profitable (certainly lose less money).........

its not as if CO doesn't have a big fleet with Embraers anyway....

take a page out of the B6 playbook
"Up the Irons!"
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2869
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 4:52 am

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
How long do you think jetblue can fight, till they get the boot form EWR?

Why do you think they'll get the boot from EWR? It's been doing very well since launch and I'd expect them to co-exist with CO with no problems.

JetBluefan1
 
CO767FA
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:45 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 5:08 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 12):
Why do you think they'll get the boot from EWR? It's been doing very well since launch and I'd expect them to co-exist with CO with no problems.

So do you work for them? Do you see the daily loads in/out of EWR? How much more service will the carrier add? I believe they recently announced no additional service. CO will defend the territory and not be caught off guard like DL in ATL.
 
icebird757
Posts: 421
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 7:53 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 5:09 am

Quoting ARGinLON (Reply 7):
ou forgot to mention that CO has way more destinations ex EWR than B6 (including international)l that helps enormously to keep its onepass members onboard as long as the fares are competitive with B6

Obviously....that is Continentals home base and not ours.
LGB....where you can watch the grass grow because the traffic is so slow.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2869
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 7:19 am

Quoting CO767FA (Reply 13):
So do you work for them? Do you see the daily loads in/out of EWR? How much more service will the carrier add? I believe they recently announced no additional service. CO will defend the territory and not be caught off guard like DL in ATL.

I don't work for them, but I am an investor and usually make very accurate guesses based on my observations of the company. Easy-to-obtain DOT data will tell you the loads, but those really don't tell me much about the actual success of the route. Here are some things I've observed about EWR flights:

1.) The yields are higher than JFK. Same sale fare, but because there is no connecting traffic (whereas JFK has Upstate), the average fare is higher. Right now, the lowest fare that you can find from BOS/JFK/EWR/LGA to any Florida city on B6 is $79. EWR was $10 cheaper then $10 more expensive than JFK for certain weekly sales back in October/November, but that really doesn't say much other than the fact that B6 tested different ways to increase its revenue.

2.) JetBlue originally thought EWR loads a little bit weaker than JFK, but has since stepped up its game. Last month, B6 raised it's lowest 3-day advanced purchase fare from $119, to $139, to $159, to $199 out of JFK to Florida. BOS had gone from $119, to $159, to $199. EWR-Florida hadn't budged, especially FLL which saw $119 fares for even 1-day advanced purchases at times. However, a few weeks ago EWR was included in the $199 fare raise. It's important to note, however, that this is only on 3-day advanced purchases. You can still get the $79 fare if the flight is relatively empty and you're booking more than 3 days out.

3.) EWR-SJU has extremely low yields on days such as Mon.-Wed. However, the flights are usually very full on weekends (both ways). The 1-day advanced purchase was as low as $59 for awhile (usually indicating empty flights on SJU-EWR, not as often on EWR-SJU, which more often saw fares in the $139 range), but have since been raised to $134 as an absolute minimum (on both segments). This new fare was put into place on Feb. 1, the day B6 announced its earnings and its need to increase its fares.

Do I see B6 adding more EWR service? I think next year Florida frequencies will be about the same - maybe another flight to PBI and TPA. Transcons? Perhaps, but I think B6 will be very cautious in this case. I could perhaps see them using the 3 LGB slots for EWR-LGB (which, IMO, isn't the absolute best use of their assets, but it could work). I bet we'll see another SJU freqeuncy sooner or later as B6 gains loyalty on the route. Considering that they have 4 gates there, I think some expansion will occur, but nothing too drastic that CO has to worry about.

These are just my observations and guesses. Take them for what they are.

JetBluefan1
 
Alias1024
Posts: 2233
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 7:50 am

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 2):
Exactly. I'm no fan of jetBlue, but CO has to watch it.

CO has more issues coming and obviously their CEO already has placed blame:

""We continue to face significant challenges," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner. "The price of oil still hovers at record high prices, JetBlue has invaded our Newark hub, Delta is using its bankruptcy advantage to expand into our profitable international markets and United Airlines, flush with $3 billion in exit financing and greatly reduced costs, is coming out of bankruptcy."

Looks like CO's stuck between a rock and a hard place

Or their CEO is trying to avoid being sued by investors. Executives must acknowledge the risks and challenges in their business, or they risk a lawsuit for painting too rosy a picture. Kellner probably learned this very well by watching what happened next door (literally across the street) at Enron. Ken Lay is now in court for misleading investors and not acknowledging the risks in their business.

Oh, if you think that CO is in trouble, listen to the B6 conference call. Much more doom and gloom than the CO conference call.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:04 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
take a page out of the B6 playbook

While I think CO could use some E175s, taking a page out of the B6 playbook on 190s would make little sense for CO because:

CO has a large fleet of 735s and 733/73Gs.

B6 is having teething pains on the E190 and the CASM is higher than they are used to.

B6 is now posting losses and warning of the future. Why take a page out of a playbook that seems to be losing steam as the game goes on?

But the E170 or 175 would make sense for CO, because the CASM on that jet is lower than for the 145s they are using, and there are plenty of CO routes where the E145 is too small and the 735 is too large, and some of those cities are in florida, either as entire stations, or only certain frequencies. What is a negative impact for an airline like B6 with the E190 is a positive impact for an airline like CO with the E170. It all depends on your frame of reference.

I think CO would love to have E17Xs flying to PBI/JAX/SRQ from IAH and CLE, and also to EWR from these locations at certain times of day or times during the year. E17Xs would also open up a few more destinations from CLE, and increase capacity on LAX-Mexico routes.

Right now, their contracts make it difficult to get such a plane, but those hurdles will be overcome soon, one would guess.

Then, in the FUTURE, when the Boeing/Airbus 737/320 replacement war is in full swing, CO will know if there will be a 100 seater available. If not, they could then decide on the E190, now that the family is entrenched in their fleet via the E170 or 175.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
User avatar
airzim
Posts: 1216
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2001 7:40 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:05 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 15):
I don't work for them, but I am an investor and usually make very accurate guesses based on my observations of the company. Easy-to-obtain DOT data will tell you the loads, but those really don't tell me much about the actual success of the route. Here are some things I've observed about EWR flights:

1.) The yields are higher than JFK. Same sale fare, but because there is no connecting traffic (whereas JFK has Upstate), the average fare is higher.

You really haven't proved anything. Looking at published fares give you absolutlely no indication of yield. You don't know anything about special deals, group fares, purchase distribution among available fare products.

Average fare is about the worst indicator of performance. Two passengers that pay high fares but no other passengers show great average fare, but crap RASM. Yield is also problematic because it takes into account only sold revene seats. It can be very misleading.

The only true indicator of performance is RASM which accounts for both sold and empty seats. Some airlines will even include non revs in the calculation.

Most airlines give that information publically on an aggregate basis, not market or flight based.

So all the back of the envelop analysis based airport stats, and even published financials does not give a true picture of the situation.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:15 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
But the E170 or 175 would make sense for CO, because the CASM on that jet is lower than for the 145s they are using, and there are plenty of CO routes where the E145 is too small and the 735 is too large, and some of those cities are in florida, either as entire stations, or only certain frequencies. What is a negative impact for an airline like B6 with the E190 is a positive impact for an airline like CO with the E170. It all depends on your frame of reference

hmmmm..now that I've thought about it more...the E170-175 might be an interesting addition.....it does fit nicely on some of the routes you mentioned..

as you stated...the E190 closes in too much on the some of their 737's..

good call.. checkmark 
"Up the Irons!"
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2869
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:18 am

Quoting Airzim (Reply 18):
You really haven't proved anything.

I agree that it doesn't really "prove" anything. However, David Neeleman himself has said publicly that both LGA and EWR have higher yields than JFK, which is a fact...

I can only speculate that this is because of the lack of connecting traffic. For example, B6's base fare from ROC to MCO is $79, but requires the routing to be ROC-JFK-MCO, thereby splitting that $79 fare between the two flights. However, a fare out of EWR doesn't have to be split into two segments, thereby giving it a higher yield and most likely higher RASM (of course, only if there were X passengers on both the EWR and JFK flights).

In any case, I think B6 has a ways to go before finding a level at which they can make money and still stimulate demand. They have started to crack that shell and the minds behind the airline shouldn't have much of a problem doing this.

JetBluefan1
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:21 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 19):
as you stated...the E190 closes in too much on the some of their 737's..

yes, for now. but as I said, come 2012, when CO is making plans for replacing the 733/735s in their fleet, then the E190 comes back into play. Do they look for a 100 seater option from Boeing in the 797, or just take 733 and 738 and 757 sized aircraft in that class, and then take an E190ER for the 100 seat market? Does Boeing even offer a 100 seat 797? Who knows, yet.

But I would expect, especially with the ExpressJet contract losing exclusivity, that you will see COex 170s in the fleet soon, hopefully with a 6 seat F section, but if not, with 31-32" pitch in back and a 36" pitch Y section in front that is designated "blue" on their seating chart for Elite members. Maybe 2-3 rows?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:33 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 21):
yes, for now. but as I said, come 2012, when CO is making plans for replacing the 733/735s in their fleet, then the E190 comes back into play. Do they look for a 100 seater option from Boeing in the 797, or just take 733 and 738 and 757 sized aircraft in that class, and then take an E190ER for the 100 seat market? Does Boeing even offer a 100 seat 797? Who knows, yet.

I agree...as I think that is a market not being addressed by Boeing......a 65-100 seat market plane is a growing market........Embraer has done well under the radar with its E190/195...


B6 have their E190s with rows 13-35 with the 34" seat pitch...having noting that, and with B6 basically being a "one-class" air carrier, I could see CO adding some extra pitch for an "expanded Y-section"......

but this is a market which CO must pay attention too....
"Up the Irons!"
 
rwsea
Posts: 2423
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 2:23 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:38 am

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 2):
""We continue to face significant challenges," said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner. "The price of oil still hovers at record high prices, JetBlue has invaded our Newark hub, Delta is using its bankruptcy advantage to expand into our profitable international markets and United Airlines, flush with $3 billion in exit financing and greatly reduced costs, is coming out of bankruptcy."

I just love how CO executives and CO fans on this board continue to make noise about DL's supposed bankruptcy advantages, yet CO continues to reap rewards from their double bankruptcies in years past.
 
CO767FA
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 1:45 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:50 am

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 23):
.....CO continues to reap rewards from their double bankruptcies in years past.

Really, list those "rewards"?
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:50 am

If a personal bankruptcy goes off the books in 7 years, why is 11 years not enough for you for CO's emergence? Do you honestly think, in this very different environment in 2006, that CO is still "reaping rewards" from emerging so many years ago?

If you do, sounds like you are more of a CO "basher" than others are "fans" doesn't it?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
flyboeingjets
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 1999 1:43 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:15 am

First of all, no one will be operating anything above 50 seats for Continental except for Continental mainline pilots due to the scope clause.
Second, CO is increasing their gate utilization in Terminal A as a deterrent to prevent any further B6 infrastructure expansion. B6 can't grow much in EWR without additional gatespace, unless they opt for a hardstand operation. They have already been forced to work out of the United "Banjo" (A-1) because they cannot run their current operation solely out of A-2, Gates 21-22. CO has them nicely sandwiched in A-2, as they utilize 20, and 23-28. A-3 is currently full with AA and US/HP.
 
isitsafenow
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2004 9:22 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:23 am

Quoting Tommy767 (Reply 10):
JBlu is doing well at EWR

That's not correct. JetBlue was stated in a newspaper late last fall saying the EWR flights were so far a disappointment but they(JB)was staying the course for now. I can't remember which paper I read that in but in was in early Dec.
Perhaps things changed in January.
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:23 am

Quoting Flyboeingjets (Reply 26):
First of all, no one will be operating anything above 50 seats for Continental except for Continental mainline pilots due to the scope clause.

This has been discussed elsewhere.

You could see a modified scope clause limiting numbers until the next contract negotiation, or you could see CO mainline pilots flying but otherwise an Express level subsidiary operating, or you could see CO flying the E175 mainline with full F, and with CO converting some of it's 145 orders to 175s.

In any of these cases, it makes more economic sense than flying the expensive 145s and leaving pax behind with money in hand, or flying the expensive 735 with 40 seats empty.

You won't see CO or AA giving up the 70 seat market to all it's competitors due to scope clauses forever. It would cripple them.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
FLyingRev
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2006 3:40 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:24 am

I had the opposite experience. Just a few weeks ago I was on a CO 737-900 from EWR-TPA and it was completely full. The service was great. We got a light lunch, free head phones for a pretty good movie, and over all I was impressed! Good job for CO!

Last week my friend that I booked a flight for was on a CO 737-800 TPA-EWR and the flight was also full. There were not an extra seat at all on board! She also had a great experience on the flight with service and all! Again, CO is doing a great job!
 
AirlineAV8tr
Posts: 187
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:20 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:34 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 19):


hmmmm..now that I've thought about it more...the E170-175 might be an interesting addition.....it does fit nicely on some of the routes you mentioned..

as you stated...the E190 closes in too much on the some of their 737's..

good call..

While I would love to see our airline get the new E-Jets, contractual limitations will probably prevent it. It was a surprise that COntinental PAnama (COPA) received the E-190, and if COPA's history of being CO's test platform with the wingleted versions of the 737-800, and -700, it would lead me to believe that it may somehow become reality in the near future. It's no secret that they've openly looked for a replacement to the 737-300, and -500, and the E-Jets would be a great fit.
If we went into the funeral business, people would stop dying.-Martin S. (PanAm CEO)
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:37 am

yeah, as i said, one experience does not a trend make.

i routinely find it very difficult to find seats on the florida flights on CO once the flight date approaches. F is full, Y is full or nearly full. But sometimes, the plane has room. It can depend on day of week and time of day. Also, who knows, the plane he was on may have been scheduled for a 733/5 and swapped to a 738 for some reason. I've had that happen on EWR-TPA before because they needed to get a 739 to IAH, so they did it for the EWR-TPA leg and the same thing on the TPA-IAH leg, both scheduled as 738s.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2869
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:25 am

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 27):
That's not correct. JetBlue was stated in a newspaper late last fall saying the EWR flights were so far a disappointment but they(JB)was staying the course for now. I can't remember which paper I read that in but in was in early Dec.
Perhaps things changed in January.

I'm pretty sure you have your facts wrong. If not, then the newspaper was most certainly one that wasn't reputable. According to Neeleman, the EWR flights have been doing well. As was stated before, it is illegal for him to lie about this - truthful statements must be made in order to give investors a good idea of what is going on.

I highly doubt the newspaper has any type of credibility whatsoever. EWR is doing just fine for B6, and I'm positive that something said like that would have caught much more media coverage, and perhaps even had affected JetBlue's stock rating.

JetBluefan1
 
727LOVER
Posts: 6683
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 11:34 am

On Saturday, I looked at CO's website to check on fares EWR-TPA. 6 months ago, I coudn't find anything under $200 (one-way) Too my shock, they have $79 fares....then I realized a few minutes later, OH YEAH, B6 entered ewr-Fla.
Love Trumps Hate
 
User avatar
airzim
Posts: 1216
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2001 7:40 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 12:43 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 20):
Quoting Airzim (Reply 18):
You really haven't proved anything.

I agree that it doesn't really "prove" anything. However, David Neeleman himself has said publicly that both LGA and EWR have higher yields than JFK, which is a fact...

Which again means nothing. Yield by definition means calculating only the price yielded per mile on revenue seats sold. Much like average fare, you could have only two seats sold with a very high yield but RASM is awful.

And if Neeleman's statement were actually true that RASMs not yields are higher at LGA and EWR, surely makes growth and strategy prospects at JFK look dubious

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 20):
I can only speculate that this is because of the lack of connecting traffic. For example, B6's base fare from ROC to MCO is $79, but requires the routing to be ROC-JFK-MCO, thereby splitting that $79 fare between the two flights.

Thank God Wall Street doesn't allow airlines to calculate RASM like this. You are oversimplifying the mathematics. "Spliting" is the key word. You are either glossing over or misunderstanding how airlines calculate route profitability.

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 20):
In any case, I think B6 has a ways to go before finding a level at which they can make money and still stimulate demand. They have started to crack that shell and the minds behind the airline shouldn't have much of a problem doing this.

You sure have a tremendous amount of blind faith in the management of this company
 
User avatar
antoniemey
Posts: 1229
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2005 5:38 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 1:53 pm

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 23):
I just love how CO executives and CO fans on this board continue to make noise about DL's supposed bankruptcy advantages, yet CO continues to reap rewards from their double bankruptcies in years past.

You mean the two bankruptcies that Lorenzo forced them into with bad management, with the pending third one that Gordon Bethune and the people he brought in saved the company from going through... and the changes that were made (Including increases, then cuts) in employee salary through the next 11 years that had nothing to do with those bankruptcies?

Frank Lorenzo may claim those pair of bankruptcies are what's saving Continental now, but the man is deluded and thinks he's an Airline management god for some reason.

What keeps Continental on top is good Management-Employee relations overall, happier employees than most of the other legacies, and a good service standard.
Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
 
bigdrewfl
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:10 pm

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 3:26 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 32):
Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 27):
That's not correct. JetBlue was stated in a newspaper late last fall saying the EWR flights were so far a disappointment but they(JB)was staying the course for now. I can't remember which paper I read that in but in was in early Dec.
Perhaps things changed in January.

I'm pretty sure you have your facts wrong. If not, then the newspaper was most certainly one that wasn't reputable. According to Neeleman, the EWR flights have been doing well. As was stated before, it is illegal for him to lie about this - truthful statements must be made in order to give investors a good idea of what is going on.

I highly doubt the newspaper has any type of credibility whatsoever. EWR is doing just fine for B6, and I'm positive that something said like that would have caught much more media coverage, and perhaps even had affected JetBlue's stock rating.

JetBluefan1

This is all a miss understanding..... I can't recall Jetblue ever publicly saying anything bad about its operations in EWR. But I can tell you that the company was not happy with EWR's ONTIME PERFORMANCE. Out of 16 flights 14 flights were always late mainly because of EWR's Air Traffic delay Program (Ground Holds). So yes B6 was unhappy with Ontime performance but most certainly not with its Yields.
 
rdwootty
Posts: 689
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 4:28 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 3:40 pm

I think the main reason for CO being "full" etc is the large amount of connecting traffic from Europe to Florida.. I find it quite difficult to get my clients on suitable connecting flights especially at the weekend and they have long waits at Newark. However I am now looking at buying B6 seats and just using CO to EWR. this may give CO more money per transatlantic sector?
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2869
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:44 pm

Quoting Airzim (Reply 34):
And if Neeleman's statement were actually true that RASMs not yields are higher at LGA and EWR, surely makes growth and strategy prospects at JFK look dubious

Once again, the fares were lower out of JFK because of connecting traffic. Every airline has connecting traffic that they rely on to fill up their planes. So, perhaps B6 fills up JFK-FLL more than EWR-FLL, thereby offsetting any lost revenue? I really don't know...this is all speculation.

Quoting Airzim (Reply 34):
Thank God Wall Street doesn't allow airlines to calculate RASM like this. You are oversimplifying the mathematics. "Spliting" is the key word. You are either glossing over or misunderstanding how airlines calculate route profitability.

Never did I say that an airline splits the fare in half. I would think the split would be more proportionately. However, we as outsiders of the company have no hard evidence to see how they split this. But we do know that a customer taking a connecting flight has to have his/her fare split between two segments.

Quoting Airzim (Reply 34):
You sure have a tremendous amount of blind faith in the management of this company

That's true.  Smile

JetBluefan1
 
Cory6188
Posts: 2611
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2004 12:29 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:59 pm

Quoting Bigdrewfl (Reply 36):
the company was not happy with EWR's ONTIME PERFORMANCE.

Well what did they expect? It's EWR, and the airport has banks of flights that are way beyond what the runway capacity can handle. Did B6 really think that they were somehow going to be able to miraculously avoid the problem that has been plaguing CO and all of the other EWR carriers for years and years?
 
FLyingRev
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2006 3:40 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:57 pm

Rdwootty

You would think that it was weekend travel dates that was filled when I mentioned the full flts to TPA on CO. But, these were both mid-week fts!

Good day,
FlyingRev
 
User avatar
airzim
Posts: 1216
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2001 7:40 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Wed Feb 08, 2006 2:34 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 38):
Once again, the fares were lower out of JFK because of connecting traffic. Every airline has connecting traffic that they rely on to fill up their planes. So, perhaps B6 fills up JFK-FLL more than EWR-FLL, thereby offsetting any lost revenue? I really don't know...this is all speculation.

That may be true, but JFK may still have higher RASM than EWR despite having lower fares. Which may mean JFK is performing better than Newark. The problem with basing assumptions off public fares is it assumes all or at least some fares are sold at that given rate. While B6 may have a fare of $79 in the market, they may only sell a couple of those seats while charging higher fares based on demand or advanced purchase, group rates, etc. We have no idea what the fare product distribution is on a given flight since it is likely dynamically changing based on demand and competitive considerations. Or at least hope that is happening at jetBlue.



Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 38):
Quoting Airzim (Reply 34):
Thank God Wall Street doesn't allow airlines to calculate RASM like this. You are oversimplifying the mathematics. "Spliting" is the key word. You are either glossing over or misunderstanding how airlines calculate route profitability.

Never did I say that an airline splits the fare in half. I would think the split would be more proportionately. However, we as outsiders of the company have no hard evidence to see how they split this. But we do know that a customer taking a connecting flight has to have his/her fare split between two segments.

I never said they split it in half either. The complexity, as you pointed out, lies in the connection traffic. This can be from other carriers or themselves. ( I'm not sure if B6 interlines, but the point still stands). An airline's network is explicitly constrained by aircraft capacity. Connections contribute to total network contribution. Thus if you have a dog flight that's not selling say, ROC-JFK, flying empty is bad. Filling it with anybody is going to improve RASM. Therefore an airline might be willing to sacrifice selling a cheap seat JFK-FLL on a ROC-JFK-FLL itinerary because if you don't, that person is not going to fly only on the ROC-JFK sector thus another empty seat. While on an individual basis the fares look horrendous, the sacrifice actually helps with network revenue.

Having said all that, even if they are selling junk from upstate to Florida that may still be having a better overall network revenue impact than an expensive just flying JFK-FLL.

By the way, prorating a fare across 2 or more sectors is not as simple as dividing by leg, or a mileage basis. At least let's hope that's not what B6 is doing.

Lastly my point is, be very careful using publicly available information to judge whether a flight or market is performing or not. What I'm trying to point out is it is impossible to tell without seeing the total network RASM breakdown. Among other things.

Plus at the end of the day, maybe all the mathematical calculations are irrelevant if all you're trying to do is hold or increase market share. In which case these calculations are meaningless. I suspect jetBlue is trying to create market share footprint at EWR. I also suspect that CO is willing to do whatever it takes to preserve theirs.

B6 is flying A320's. CO is flying 738's, 752's and 753's. CO can drive the price down to horrific levels, make jetBlue match and fill all their seats with junk, and since CO has much more capacity, charge a fare premium on their remaining capacity. Coupled with the inbound connections from the CO network for a bit more gravy.

It's Airline 101. Remember ATA's attempt at transcon?
 
WDBRR
Posts: 599
Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2005 11:28 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Thu Feb 09, 2006 8:00 am

Read somewhere that CO blatantly counts B6 passengers boarding since they are in the same concourse in terminal A, can anyone confirm this? read they use a clicker.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2869
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Thu Feb 09, 2006 12:12 pm

Quoting WDBRR (Reply 42):
Read somewhere that CO blatantly counts B6 passengers boarding since they are in the same concourse in terminal A, can anyone confirm this? read they use a clicker.

I highly doubt that...DOT figures are easy to come by.

JetBluefan1
 
Cory6188
Posts: 2611
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2004 12:29 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Thu Feb 09, 2006 12:44 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 43):
I highly doubt that

Believe it or not, it's actually true. I arrived into Terminal A in November on a flight from PBI. As I walked through the small concourse area, I noticed a CO employee at a CO gate next to one of the two B6 gates discreetly clicking something (that I would almost guarantee was a counter) as a B6 agent boarded a flight. She was staring right at the door of the B6 gate the entire time - I'm sure that's what she was doing.
 
codc10
Posts: 1764
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Thu Feb 09, 2006 2:55 pm

Continental absolutely counts B6 pax as they board flights. It is entirely legal, maybe slightly less ethical, but still within acceptable bounds. This practice has been in use for years at EWR, starting back in the mid-1990s when CO positioned agents in the departure lounge of Terminal B to count DL pax boarding flights to ATL.

It's a good way for CO to judge their performance vis-a-vis B6 on daily basis, and is now far more efficient considering CO now has an operation in A-2. Previously, someone would be paid to sit in the gate areas for hours on end, with the sole purpose of counting other airlines' pax. Now they can at least cross-utilize staff!
 
WDBRR
Posts: 599
Joined: Tue Jan 25, 2005 11:28 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Fri Feb 10, 2006 8:47 am

Maybe I am suspicious....do airlines "send" an employee to apply for a job at a major competitor to gain inside information and get access to computer bookings? wondered if Delta has moles at Airtran and CO has moles at B6. anyone ever heard of this happening?
 
jetblueatjfk
Posts: 1556
Joined: Sun Jan 02, 2005 4:42 am

RE: How Is The CO Vs Jetblue In EWR Going?

Fri Feb 10, 2006 9:59 am

Quoting WDBRR (Reply 42):
Read somewhere that CO blatantly counts B6 passengers boarding since they are in the same concourse in terminal A, can anyone confirm this? read they use a clicker.

Yea I heard about that also like someone else said above, and I believe it too, lol.

Quoting WDBRR (Reply 46):
B6. anyone ever heard of this happening?

Well Dave Barger is an ex-CO workers and he was high up their. So I am sure he knows some good stuff about how CO operate back pre 2000 but things have changed since then.

I am sure there are many people that work in competing company's to get info and then report back but I don't know if it happens a lot.

 airplane jetBlueAtJFK airplane 

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 76er, alasizon, ANA787, Andy33, astuteman, Bing [Bot], Coal, CONTACREW, Google [Bot], hummingbird, jm079, Mani87, msycajun, PlanesNTrains, qf002, RickNRoll, spacecadet, Sydscott, TB20, VCEflyboy, Yahoo [Bot] and 260 guests