Posts: 383
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 11:05 am

When Will A Plane Crash?

Thu Jun 01, 2000 3:06 pm

Dear enthusiasts
In respect of the event that happened a few hours ago (AA crash false alarm-misunderstanding), and which I missed, allow me to express my point of view.
I am participating in this forum for 2 months now, because I like aviation, and I love to share experiences with other enthusiasts. But I do not consider to be a "breaking news" agency. To put in another way, we share information by taking advantage of this super-highway of information (internet), but all of these information have ALREADY been reported somewhere else. Just think: how many of us had a slightest clue about the merger of UAL-UsA ?... nobody, and don't think that such a merger happened overnight. It takes months to make an airline valuation.
Can anybody tell who is definitely going to order the A-3XX? No. We will only criticize the news after they occur.
Will Delta merge with NWA or Co or whichever airline? If anybody knows just tell me so I can buy some shares of that airline      
My point is that (except a small percentage of members here) all of us (including me) are not aviation specialists, or news agents. We are specialists in some other areas, and by pooling information we can draw a lot of interesting conclusions regarding aviation.
And of course we can share great tips about airlines (which one has the best service-food-FA's etc   ), airports (spotting places) etc etc
But I find it very unlike to have only this forum as a primary information medium. Otherwise the Associate Press would be out of business.
I am not trying to defend the guy who posted the AA crash. May be he meant something else, but he should have been more careful. But all of us are just a click away from getting the real news when they happen.
Aren't we?
Safe Landings
Best Regards

P.S BTW nobody gave me a clue on an earlier topic about e-business of airline manufacturers. (These are the news guys !!!)
Posts: 534
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2000 6:07 pm

RE: When Will A Plane Crash?

Thu Jun 01, 2000 5:05 pm

Well, I understand what you mean and you are right that most of us are not airline speicalst, just enthousiast. But what we have here is an awfull amount of information which gives us the opportunity to draw conclusions, make predictions, etc. I give one example. One day it was clear out of some messages here that there was an agreement between SN and SR about the latter taking a majority. I gave this information to a journalist (a friend of mine) who didn't know about it and who checked it for me at SR and at the minister here in Belgium. They said they didn't want to comment but later it was clear that they had come to an angreement that day.
Another example is about the orders. A lot of us know about which companies work together, what kind of engines they use, etc. Factors important if an airline is going to order aircraft. Just a few reporters know all this. So, allright, we do not make the news and most of the time we have to get the news from agencies. But once in a while we here are a little bit faster than all the others. And well, that is nice, isn't it? But the most important thing is that we have got a place to meet, to share info and to comment on news so we all get to know more about the airline industry and understand it better.
kind regards
Posts: 4611
Joined: Mon Feb 21, 2000 1:12 pm

RE: When Will A Plane Crash?

Fri Jun 02, 2000 12:50 am

Forums on the internet should never be taken as fact anyway. They should only initiate research. If info of interest is posted, one should then go to commerical news-agency web services or even the newspaper to confirm information. I welcome breaking news on forums. Not to inform me, but to tip me off to investigate and seek credible information. I wouldn't even consider it irresponsible for one to post second-hand info or rumors and long as they indentify it as such. There are people out there with insight that can share info before it becomes public-domain. Of course if that's the case, you'll really never know if its legitimate until it becomes public domain, but at least it can be something to hope for (if its good news). I take everything like that with a grain of salt, unless I start hearing the same thing from various unrelated forums. One just has to use common-sense.
"Shaddap you!"
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2006 12:58 pm

RE: When Will A Plane Crash?

Fri Jun 02, 2000 2:22 am

when I hear a story on CNN or MSNBC...i listen to thier story, then i log on here for more details from a point of view i consider more reliable then an overzelous journalist that gets half the story wrong. Keep posting the articles guys!!

Posts: 383
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 11:05 am

RE: When Will A Plane Crash?

Fri Jun 02, 2000 4:12 am

Thank you all for your insight. I agree with all of you. My point was that this forum can not serve as a “breaking-news” agent. It is an excellent site to share information and draw interesting conclusions by combining different areas of specialization.
From my (limited) experience in the business world let me give you some insight about mergers and acquisitions as well as aircraft orders
Mergers and acquisitions are a very painstaking process. It involves a careful valuation of the airline in terms of their current performance, their asset (tangibles and intangibles) allocation (fleet, maintenance buildings etc) their products/services offered, and of course their cost structure (debt/equity). Apparently M&A’s cannot happen overnight. And they will impact the financial of both companies. With shareholders and board of directors waiting for profits/dividends every year these actions prove to be very sensitive. Furthermore, it includes the valuation of an airline in terms of how much they will worth in 5+ years. This has many other factors to consider such as economy/market growth, competitive forces, exchange rate risks, labor problems etc. So the question arises: If we want to merge/acquire an airline, who else would we like to participate?
Similarly, when an airline decides on which aircraft to use for their fleet renewal-expansion, it takes into consideration their financial structure as well. The depreciation cost of new aircrafts is huge, and acquiring one impacts their cost of capital heavily.
That is a reason why airlines love to operate old-but-dependable aircrafts.
Lastly, we should take into consideration the role of internet nowadays. It speeds up all business decisions, since there is real-time access to the airliners/money market.
As a result, some airlines would prefer to fly certain aircrafts, however, in the moment they can not afford to!!!!!
Thank you again,
Best Regards
Posts: 1911
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2001 8:25 am

RE: When Will A Plane Crash?

Fri Jun 02, 2000 7:30 am

The UA/US deal was talked about on Flyertalk and

If you were on the message boards you could have made a mint. They announced the US Airways emergency BOD meeting at 2:30pm in the afternoon and 90 mins before the markets closed. You could have bout US Airways stock at 26 and sold it the next morning at 51.

Around here there are too many opinions and way to much US vs EU! (IE European Airlines vs US carriers US vs EU traffic rights and Airbus vs Boeing) All thinly masked as constructive...

It isn't the "enthusiast" are more worried about national egos then facts and slight each other left and right. No doubt in large part due to the average age of so many of the posters...

Forums can be valuable but, the information has to be screened ... So many say things with no real knowledge or ability to cite sources. Treat the boards like a term paper (analogy used purposely) and you might find the quality of the information and analysis would go up substantually, But, of course we might not have all the Boeing vs Airbus flames either.
Posts: 383
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 11:05 am

RE: When Will A Plane Crash?

Fri Jun 02, 2000 9:54 am

Acvitale you are right.. thanks for the info
Best regards

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