BN747
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WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 11:59 am

One of you yield/CASM specialist may be best to answer this.

And this is by no means a swipe at SU (Aeroflot) in any way.

Howevevr, it absolutely blows me away to see how Aeroflot can easily sustain a 5X weekly 763 svc from LAX-SVO. And how SAS or AY (Finnair), who have established far superior networking hubs from Copehagen and Helsinki to a slew of additional European destinations!
I know SAS and AY served here for quite awhile, heck SAS was one of the 1st euro carriers here as early as 1959. Why can Aeroflot succeed... and they cannot?

BN747
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LTU932
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 3:06 pm

As far as AY is concerned, my first guess would probably be a lack of aircraft. With only 8 MD-11s in the fleet, most of them dedicated to AY's Asia network, it might be a problem dedicating 1 or 2 MD-11s to an LAX flight. This could change though, once the A350s and A340s come online.
 
LAXintl
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 3:21 pm

Aeroflot manages to operate quite successfully at LAX mostly in part to the large Russian émigré community in Los Angeles and to a less extent the large Armenian community. In addition Aeroflot enjoys a relative low cost structure compared to other European airlines which I am sure helps.

In regards to SAS, while it served LAX for many decades with relatively good loads, what finally killed the route was the carriers high cost structure vis-a-vis the relatively low revenue it was able to generate with the 767-300 on the long LAX runs. As explained to me by the former SAS regional manager, even with full passenger loads and some cargo, the airline could not generate enough revenue to cover the fixed and operating cost of the route.

I'm not sure we'd see SAS return to LAX anytime soon, as I probably the A330/A340s would be too much capacity particularly in the off season to keep yields up. Also while a running an efficient hub in CPH, the hub is mostly tilted to serve Northern Europe. From LAX there are allready many more beyond connection options available at hubs such as AMS, LHR, FRA, CDG, MUC, ZRH.

In regards to Finnair, the carrier has not had much of a presence in North American. Both LAX and SEA have did run with low frequencies for several years, however such low frequencies did not draw much beyond low yield VFR and package tour passengers.

In general while there is significant volume of traffic between Europe and the West Coast, the market in general is a lower yielding one compared to the East Coast due to the inability to price significantly more to make up for the greater distances traveled. Throw in issues like also needed more then 1 aircraft to operate daily roundtrip services, one can see the economics can become more marginal for many carriers.
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N1120A
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 3:22 pm

SAS actually had service to LAX for years (even having a very tragic crash there). I think the decrease in the size of their long haul fleet is what killed the route, as they decided to focus west coast service on SEA
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N1120A
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 3:29 pm

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
In general while there is significant volume of traffic between Europe and the West Coast, the market in general is a lower yielding one compared to the East Coast due to the inability to price significantly more to make up for the greater distances traveled. Throw in issues like also needed more then 1 aircraft to operate daily roundtrip services, one can see the economics can become more marginal for many carriers.

1 aircraft can pretty comfortably operate 1 aircraft daily between LAX and Western Europe if they time their turns and flights correctly. Longer turns will however result in an overrun of about 15 minutes. Additionally, the longer haul actually drops the CASM as compares to flying to the East Coast because you are flying more time at cruise. That will always be true as long as you remain within the range band of the aircraft operated. This is the reason you don't need to price 80% higher for a route that is 80% longer.
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as739x
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 3:40 pm

Finnair also served SFO seasonal a few years back.

ASLAX
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LAXintl
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 4:01 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 4):
1 aircraft can pretty comfortably operate 1 aircraft daily between LAX and Western Europe if they time their turns and flights correctly.

Huh? Even a short'ish LAX-LHR-LAX turn cant be accomplished on 1 tail. LAX-LHR is blocked at 10:30, LHR-LAX 11:15. Thats 21:45 per day, and you'd need like 2hrs turn time at each end also.
Anyways no airline/aircraft can maintain such utilization.

Another point is that most schedules are built based on connection opportunities times at the hub city which can further push the requirement of having more then a single aircraft.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 4):
CASM as compares to flying to the East Coast because you are flying more time at cruise. That will always be true as long as you remain within the range band of the aircraft operated. This is the reason you don't need to price 80% higher for a route that is 80% longer.

True CASM drops as distance increases, however RASM still does not increase enough on most West Coast routes to close the gap as compared wiith higher RASM on the shorter East Coast markets offer.
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solnabo
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 4:31 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 3):

"SAS even had a very tragic crash there (LAX)"....

Huh, the only crash with SK in US is JFK when DC10-30 skids off runway into water AFAIK.

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LAXintl
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 4:38 pm

January 13, 1969

Los Angeles International Airport/Santa Monica Bay: a Scandinavian Air System (SAS) DC-8-62 LN-MOO plunged into the Ocean during landing attempt six miles from the airport; crew was preoccupied with a landing gear problem; 15 people died, 30 survived
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solnabo
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 4:42 pm

Laxintl:

Had no idea.

Thx for sharing, very sad.

Micke//SE Sad
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BN747
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 5:48 pm

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
Los Angeles International Airport/Santa Monica Bay: a Scandinavian Air System (SAS) DC-8-62 LN-MOO plunged into the Ocean during landing attempt six miles from the airport; crew was preoccupied with a landing gear problem; 15 people died, 30 survived

Yeah, one survivor made it to shore and simply caught a taxi home...

I saved the news clip (not original just that story was retold several times)

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
Aeroflot manages to operate quite successfully at LAX mostly in part to the large Russian émigré community in Los Angeles and to a less extent the large Armenian community. In addition Aeroflot enjoys a relative low cost structure compared to other European airlines which I am sure helps.



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
I'm not sure we'd see SAS return to LAX anytime soon, as I probably the A330/A340s would be too much capacity particularly in the off season to keep yields up. Also while a running an efficient hub in CPH, the hub is mostly tilted to serve Northern Europe. From LAX there are allready many more beyond connection options available at hubs such as AMS, LHR, FRA, CDG, MUC, ZRH

Thanks for the imput Laxintl...

BN747

[Edited 2006-02-14 09:49:16]
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gunsontheroof
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:08 pm

AY probably has a lot to do with aircraft availability. SK probably stays out of LAX because Star Alliance already has a lot feed to Europe via UA and LH, and SK gets good Star Alliance feed (from what I've read) from the west coast on their SEA-CPH flight.
 
Oykie
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:18 pm

Prior to 9/11 SAS was looking into SFO with a A340-300.

Finnair as a Asia HUB works well since Helsinki is east of most of Europe. So at least here in Scandinavia, HEL offers the quickest connection to Asia. A trip to LAX would be in the opposite direction and wouldn't make sense. Since Finnair is doing so well on Asia routes with lots of people from Scandinavia, SAS is looking into launching more Asia routes from ARN in competition. That is if they start making money on Intercontinental traffic.
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N1120A
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Tue Feb 14, 2006 6:26 pm

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 6):
True CASM drops as distance increases, however RASM still does not increase enough on most West Coast routes to close the gap as compared wiith higher RASM on the shorter East Coast markets offer.

Using your BA comparison again, the fastest JFK-LHR flight on BA is blocked at 6:35 while the fastest LAX-LHR is blocked at 10:10, a difference of 3:35 or about 33% shorter for the JFK-LHR sector. Now IIRC, economy tickets in the LAX-LHR market tend to be about 50% more than those in the JFK-LHR market. LAX-LHR C class tickets, according to my hardly scientific checking at BA.com are about 33% more and similar for F. That seems to show a similar or slight advantage to the LAX market for the yield on the route. Totally unscientific and you are most likely right, but just thought I would try and present an alternative view.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 6):
Huh? Even a short'ish LAX-LHR-LAX turn cant be accomplished on 1 tail. LAX-LHR is blocked at 10:30, LHR-LAX 11:15. Thats 21:45 per day, and you'd need like 2hrs turn time at each end also.
Anyways no airline/aircraft can maintain such utilization.

Another point is that most schedules are built based on connection opportunities times at the hub city which can further push the requirement of having more then a single aircraft.

I agree, I was just noting the theoretical possibility.
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bjornstrom
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Wed Feb 15, 2006 5:31 am

I would like a new SQ SIN-ARN-LAX route (or prolonged SQ352 SIN-CPH-LAX) but I don't expect my wishes granted anytime soon.
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BN747
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Wed Feb 15, 2006 6:19 am

Quoting Bjornstrom (Reply 14):
I would like a new SQ SIN-ARN-LAX route (or prolonged SQ352 SIN-CPH-LAX) but I don't expect my wishes granted anytime soon.

We get a enough SQ action here...

Daily 744
Daily A345
Daily 772

Plus the possibility of a future SIN-SYD-LAX run...


BN747
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UpperDeck79
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RE: WHY SU And No SAS Or Finnair From LAX

Wed Feb 15, 2006 1:22 pm

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 12):
SAS is looking into launching more Asia routes from ARN in competition.

You can leave the 'more' out. There are none at the moment.  Wink
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