CHRISBA777ER
Topic Author
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My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:40 am

Any predictions for this year?

Here are my guesses.

SQ - lots of 787s and some 772LRs. Dump A345.
EK - 787 in vast numbers.
QF - lots of 777-300ERs, and more 737NGs.
NZ - some 773ERs.
NH - 748s.
Mexicana - 772ERs and LRs.
LAN - more A319/20 and some A332.
AV - some 73NGs and 787s.
Garuda - firm up those 787s.
BA - a load of 773ERs, and a load more A319/20s.
EZY - 40+ more A319s. Maybe some A320s.
Philippines - 773ERs.
Saudi - a ton of 787s and probably 773ERs too.
Yemenia - A350.
Aeroflot - A350 or 787? - i think 787 despite reports to the contrary.
TK - some 772ERs and possibly some 787s as well.
KLM - some 773ERs, and a load more 73NGs.
SNB/VEX - 73NGs. No widebody order yet.
Royal Brunei - six 772ERs.
El-Al - some more 777s, and more 73NGs.
RAM - more 73NGs, firm their 787 if they havent already.
Tunisair - 787s.
Vietnam - more 787s, more 777s (probably not new leased).
Austrian - more 777s, and some A319s.

Airbus gets their asses handed to them basically.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
viv
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:42 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year

My prediction: Most of your predictions will be wrong.
Nikon D700, Nikkor 80-400, Fuji X Pro 1, Fujinon 35 f/1.4, Fujinon 18 f/2
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:50 am

Im an airline analyst - its my job to get these things wrong.

If anyone could predict these things then they would be millionnaires. I personally, at this point in time, dont think i'm that far wide of the mark with too many of these.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
viv
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:53 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
personally, at this point in time, dont think i'm that far wide of the mark with too many of these.

I'll let you know in a year's time.
Nikon D700, Nikkor 80-400, Fuji X Pro 1, Fujinon 35 f/1.4, Fujinon 18 f/2
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:57 am

Quoting Viv (Reply 3):

Looking forward to it already. I'll just assume you know best for now.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
viv
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:58 am

Who me? I'm an economic analyst, my predictions are ALWAYS wrong!
Nikon D700, Nikkor 80-400, Fuji X Pro 1, Fujinon 35 f/1.4, Fujinon 18 f/2
 
sabenapilot
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:59 am

Quoting Viv (Reply 1):
Most of your predictions will be wrong.

Well going by this one:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
SNBA/VEX - 73NGs. No widebody order yet.

I'd have to say Viv is right.

SN will NOT order ANYTHING in 2006.
This has been confirmed TODAY by both Sir RB as well as by the President of the board of shareholders of SN Mr. Davignon on a meeting with SN/VEX staff in Brussels. (if you hurry you can still ask him; the meeting is still going on here in the building I am sitting in)
 
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zeke
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:00 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
SQ - lots of 787s and some 772LRs. Dump A345.

Know someone who just received a 5 yr captain contract on the 345 with SQ.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
viv
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:01 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 6):
in the building I am sitting in

Justus Lipsius?
Nikon D700, Nikkor 80-400, Fuji X Pro 1, Fujinon 35 f/1.4, Fujinon 18 f/2
 
BestWestern
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:07 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Saudi - a ton of 787s

Is that a metric ton, or an imperial ton?
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
malaysia
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:21 am

Martial Aviation, this time instead of fare wars, Airlines will use deadly force, oh wait the Mad Max time isnt in the near future
There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:24 am

LOL BestWestern - you should know that in Saudi - a tonne is anything that you say is.

How do i know?

Port agency work in The Kingdom. "by the Word of Allah, this vessel is XXXX dwt tonnes"

It clearly isnt - but just try arguing that.

Allah says so.

Therefore it is true.

Nuff said.

Anyway - back to the topic.

Wonder if SV will fancy some nice shiny new 737NGs to replace those MD90s to go with their new shiny new 787s?
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
krisyyz
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:25 am

My crystal ball says:
AC - To firm up on 3-6 B777s and 15-20 B787 orders. Also will make a big push to take away business from the US airlines on N.America to Asia and South American routes.

NW and CO - to merge, KLM partnership gone. NW will retire B742, DC-10 and DC-9s, more A330s and B787s CO to order more 787 and 777s.

MA - To acquire B763 and retire the B762s and CRJs, more F-70 or even F-100s.

BA - will look at the B747-8 and B773ER more seriously than the A380, possible order?

Airbus- A380 performance will be less then thought, big push on the A350 and A346E

Boeing- Drop in Orders compared to '05, but will grab the headlines by winning orders from major carriers.


Krisyyz
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:26 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 6):
I'd have to say Viv is right.

SN will NOT order ANYTHING in 2006.
This has been confirmed TODAY by both Sir RB as well as by the President of the board of shareholders of SN Mr. Davignon on a meeting with SN/VEX staff in Brussels. (if you hurry you can still ask him; the meeting is still going on here in the building I am sitting in)

Perhaps not in 2006 then - but got to be soon.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
cornish
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:31 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year?

Here are my guesses.

You may be an airline analyst (so am I) but you really should know by now that you don't tell people these are your "guesses".

You say: "From my extensive research using a fail-safe confidential model, my findings clearly show...." Big grin
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
kiwiandrew

RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:32 am

you're a brave man Chris , I will wait to Jan 2007 before making my predictions for 2006 .... all the ones I made for 2005 were completely wrong ... I am hoping that hindsight will improve my accuracy Big grin
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:52 am

Quoting Cornish (Reply 14):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year?

Here are my guesses.

You may be an airline analyst (so am I) but you really should know by now that you don't tell people these are your "guesses".

You say: "From my extensive research using a fail-safe confidential model, my findings clearly show...."

LOL best not to mention being an analyst at all I would think.

Seriously though - we dont really get chance to make bold predictions like these anyway - and theres only so much you can accurately predict in this industry.

You cant predict the industry, but you can always predict that the industry will be The Industry.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
HiJazzey
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:57 am

Chris,

Things aren't that bad!
I believe Jeddah port has become very professional since privatisation.

Anyway, I agree that SV will most likely order 787s this year, but I don't think it will be in huge EK/QR-esque numbers. They'll be quite conservative, particularly since the government will not help them stump the cash. They'll probably order about a dozen.

AS for the 773ER, I don't think they're in a hurry to buy them. They'll keep the 744s for a little longer.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:03 am

Quoting HiJazzey (Reply 17):

LOL i worked for Kanoo out there and loved every minute of it fella.

KFC in this country just isnt as nice!
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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TK787
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:11 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
TK - some 772ERs and possibly some 787s as well.

I am no analyst, this is just a huge wish.
6x772ERs
24x787s
and even some 332s till they arrive.
 
cuprita
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:43 am

IB- 6/8 A380 and 18 A350
PANASONIC DMZ-FZ5
 
BR076
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:53 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year?

Ryanair- 10x A380 single class 800 seater
ú
 
flydreamliner
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 4:07 am

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 12):
NW and CO - to merge, KLM partnership gone. NW will retire B742, DC-10 and DC-9s, more A330s and B787s CO to order more 787 and 777s.

The DC-10s are being phased out and replaced with A330s. A merger with continental? It could work, I mean their codeshare is very effective, but do you think financially functional continental wants seriously messed up Northwest. That would be the ugliest merger ever. Also, a fleet of A330s and 787s? I guess it's no worse than the fact you'd have 737s side by side with A320s. Certainly doesn't lend itself well to low maintnance costs, but hey.

Honestly, I'm not seeing NW merging with anyone. Also, what are they replacing that huge fleet of DC-9s with?

At this point, i think Northwest has a better chance of having their pilots strike, the airline going under, and their assets being bought out by someone else, who could just be continental, than being part of a merger. NW is the most messed up legacy carrier flying, no one else wants to touch their ugly labor disputes, poor management, declining customer sentiment, and ancient mainline fleet. American has the money to do it, but no incentive. DL and UA are not in financial position to try such a thing.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
ZKOJH
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 4:29 am

Any predictions for this year?

NZ - some 773ERs - not yet, 772ERs and 787's order comming around may/june time,
Vietnam time..
 
krisyyz
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 4:35 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 22):

You have a good point, I agree that I would be next to impossible financially.
But out of all the major US carriers, I would still say CO and NW are somewhat compatible.

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 22):
I guess it's no worse than the fact you'd have 737s side by side with A320s

A lot of airlines run A320 and B737, LH UA

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 22):
DC-9s with

CRJ-705s... ( largely saying that cause Im Canadian)


Krisyyz
 
USADreamliner
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 7:03 am

My predictions: air france will increase flights from Charles De Gaulle
British Airways will fly mainly to/from LHR and LGW
Some Airlines will join Alliances
High probability of accidents
chances of flooding during monsoon and typhoon seasons
Virgin America will start flights from SF

Anyway... I think I'm ready for my own section of horoscopes in some cheezy newspaper!!!

Who knows the future? I don't.
If somebody knows, tell me if I'm going to win the Lotto!

USADreamliner Big grin
 
IAHFLYR
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 7:33 am

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 24):
But out of all the major US carriers, I would still say CO and NW are somewhat compatible.


CO worked very hard to get their fleet as it is now, NW would toss that into a huge ball skettie let alone the labor issues at NW, just don't see that one.

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 24):
DC-9s with

Most likely something older like a DC-7  Smile

My prediction is UA will chew up a huge amount of that 3 billion they got when they left the bankrupt court, airlines will change the way they calculate landing data, and last but not least, it will only take HP/USAIR 4 years to paint their aircraft at which time they'll change the paint scheme again! OUT
Any views shared are strictly my own and do not a represent those of any former employer.
 
COERJ145
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 7:38 am

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 12):
NW and CO - to merge, KLM partnership gone. NW will retire B742, DC-10 and DC-9s, more A330s and B787s CO to order more 787 and 777s.

NW should merge with HP/US if anything. The US west/east coast hubs would complement the large midwest presence NW has. If so, NW will probably drop the DC9/DC10/742, US would drop the 734/733. Maybe order some E190s/A318s to replace the gap?? Otherwise, NW will hopefully reach a deal with its pilots and not go ch.7. I can see CO in a possible merger with AS. DL will probably drop a few domestic cities. I would like F9 to come to MHT/PVD/ORH/BOS and start some DEN serivce.
 
Lumberton
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 7:42 am

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 12):
NW and CO - to merge, KLM partnership gone. NW will retire B742, DC-10 and DC-9s, more A330s and B787s CO to order more 787 and 777s.



Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 22):
A merger with continental? It could work, I mean their codeshare is very effective, but do you think financially functional continental wants seriously messed up Northwest. That would be the ugliest merger ever.

Can't buy this; I've got to ask why CO would want to buy labor problems? HP and US still haven't resolved pilot seniority issues.

On a side note, will LAN Chile take their A318s or convert to A319s?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
SAIL52115
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 9:36 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 22):
At this point, i think Northwest has a better chance of having their pilots strike, the airline going under, and their assets being bought out by someone else, who could just be continental, than being part of a merger. NW is the most messed up legacy carrier flying, no one else wants to touch their ugly labor disputes, poor management, declining customer sentiment, and ancient mainline fleet. American has the money to do it, but no incentive. DL and UA are not in financial position to try such a thing.

Yep, I do believe once the pilots strike (that's a WHEN!, not an IF), NW will be but an unpleasant labor memory. As such, FL will buy up whatever assets they see fit (I hear a return to the DC9 is imminent), start international service with the 752 and 753, dump the A330s on the open market (where they will be snapped up fairly quickly), send all those A319/320s to the desert. The lessors get hosed, obviously. The 744s become prime targets for Asian cargo-haulers and experience a quick refit in Wichita. The regionals become a new airline:

FEDEX Passenger! Slogan: "Since you are familiar with the cattle car, we have a white box for you!"

I'm ready for the onslaught
 duck 
 fight 

Oh,those NW pilots will find new, more lucrative careers in selling real estate, mortgages and financial services.
 
MYRIJET
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:19 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Any predictions for this year?

Here are my guesses.

SQ - lots of 787s and some 772LRs. Dump A345.
EK - 787 in vast numbers.
QF - lots of 777-300ERs, and more 737NGs.
NZ - some 773ERs.
NH - 748s.
Mexicana - 772ERs and LRs.

You surely mean AeroMéxico I Guess
 
alaska737
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:31 am

AS will hopefully be on time and more reliable, and they get more 737-800's  biggrin 
 
pmurr
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:56 am

Will be a bumper year for the crew in Seattle if you're close.
 
aeroman62
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 1:41 pm

NW or DL goes chapter 7 and liquidates, probably NW, sells their pacific routes to either AA or CO, WN moves into MEM, expands at DTW, moves into MSP.

AS merges with someone - AA or CO would be the best fits. If CO, CO dumps CLE to focus on new found splendor hubs in SEA and PDX.

DL kills CVG, offers specialty Coke cans made from recycled aluminum from dumped CRJ's (miserable, cramped little planes...). If Grinstein retires or otherwise leaves, SLC's long term place in the scheme of things is questionable.

CO and DL stop being friends through SkyTeam (even now the benefits of this "alliance" are questionable for frequent flyers), CO bolts and joins Star Alliance.

UA, FL and AA actually do o.k. in 2006.

WN gradually comes to the reality of flying without the majority of its fuel hedged, and begins offering seat assignments and inflight entertainment.

B6 struggles under the complexity of the unreliable Brazilian jets, lack of fuel hedging, and their mercurial CEO.
 
misbeehavin
Posts: 607
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:25 pm

Quoting Aeroman62 (Reply 33):
CRJ's (miserable, cramped little planes...)

ROFL!

The CRJs aren't always bad. On shorter flights (under approx 1.5 hours or so), I prefer the CRJs. They don't have First class, but I love that everyone can get on and off the plane in nothing flat.

With larger birds, sometimes it takes pax longer to board or deplane than the entire flight duration.
 
Boeing727flyer
Posts: 129
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 3:33 pm

BA will not add this year - not enough spare cash.

I predict US AIRWAYS back into Chapter 11 again.
Hail the mighty Boeing 727
 
FCYTravis
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 6:48 pm

US definitely won't go bankrupt again this year - if nothing else they have enough cash to burn to cushion for awhile. I don't think they're out of the woods by any means but they're certainly not the least stable airline right now.

If the pilots strike NW or DL, that airline goes Chapter 7. If that happens, all the other airlines - and unions - get cold feet and start talking. This ain't 1983 and there's no Frank Lorenzos around.

I see AS finding a dance partner - but whom?
USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
 
columba
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 7:17 pm

Lufthans will decide if they will order the 747-8I or not, also the decision will be made wether they will buy the A350 or the 787.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Carpethead
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 7:42 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
NH - 748s.

That's not happening but more 773ERs wouldn't hurt plus maybe even more 787s in addition because the 787 slots are filling up quickly and domestic 763/744Ds will need quick replacement come starting late this decade.
NH will possiblly add the 738 or 739 to its existing order.

Chinese airlines - blockbuster short-term deal for either 777 or A330s on top of the ones they already have on order, with delivery in 2007-2010.

TG - A350 or 787 to replace A300s. A320/737NG to replace or augment 734s.

OZ - 773ER to replace 744/74E. Additional A320-series to replace remaining 735/734s.
 
rootsair
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:10 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Mexicana - 772ERs and LRs.

Forget it they'll go for airbus

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
LAN - more A319/20 and some A332.

332 in LAN livery would look amazing !
A man without the knowledge of his past history,culture and origins is like a tree without roots
 
highflyer9790
Posts: 1189
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:45 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Airbus gets their asses handed to them basically.

Even though Im a boeing fan, im afraid it won't be too lopsided. plus, no one can predict how the airline industry will turn out this year. if we had this same post on 9/10/01, who would have thought that the next day would have changed the airline industry forever? we can always guess and monitor but no one can say for sure.
121
 
piercey
Posts: 2188
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 11:07 am

RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:04 am

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 12):
MA - To acquire B763 and retire the B762s and CRJs, more F-70 or even F-100s.

I see MA trying to get their hands on 777s

Quoting USADreamliner (Reply 25):
If somebody knows, tell me if I'm going to win the Lotto!

You're not, I am  duck 

Quoting Aeroman62 (Reply 33):
If CO, CO dumps CLE to focus on new found splendor hubs in SEA and PDX.

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The starving spotter has been punished enough, don't leave CLE CO!!!!!!!!!!!!!  cry 

Quoting Aeroman62 (Reply 33):
CO bolts and joins Star Alliance.

3 US legacies in Star? Granted, none of their hubs touch, but those three airlines are just on complete oppesite ends of the spectrum.

Quoting Aeroman62 (Reply 33):
unreliable Brazilian jets,

 Angry I heart Embraer!  box 

Quoting Boeing727flyer (Reply 35):
I predict US AIRWAYS back into Chapter 11 again.

nah..... New management actually knows a thing or two. They could be getting rid of some trans-atlantic routes, though.
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
goCOgo
Posts: 680
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 11:24 am

RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:50 am

Quoting Aeroman62 (Reply 33):
AS merges with someone - AA or CO would be the best fits. If CO, CO dumps CLE to focus on new found splendor hubs in SEA and PDX.

Why would CO have to dump a Midwest hub because of new west coast hubs?  Confused

My (probably inaccurate) predix:

DL goes belly up after their pilots strike. NW pilots learn their lesson watching DL pilots lose their jobs and settles with management, causing them to survive. CO desperately tries to score investors to pick up DL assets, manages to get the pick of the litter on aircraft, moves some JFK-Europe routes to EWR, moves some CVG ops to CLE, inherits SLC, but can't afford to get ATL. Branson buys ATL assets and ties to operate VS-America out of ATL and SFO. One additional legacy carrier returns to bankruptcy (of goes for the first time).

Airbus runs out of customers willing to purchase en mass A320s, and Boeing posts a win in order numbers, though the A320 continues to outpace the 737 and the A350 will match the 787 in orders. But at the end of the year, both Airbus launches the A320NG and Boeing officially launches Y1.

Like I said, I'm probably way wrong.
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
NWDC10
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:18 am

Oil prices will rise and cause weak carriers into CH7. NW and DL will file CH7. The US economy will continue to weaken and those airlines still flying will post losses for 2006. Robert NWDC10
 
NWDC10
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RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:20 am

Also with Detroit auto workers being layed off, this will especially hurt NW. Robert NWDC10
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2502
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:20 am

Like it or not, one US major will bite the dust either this year or next year and my crystal ball is telling me NW or DL.

Regarding an earlier discussion about the South can't afford to lose DL, CO is well positioned to take over most major routes, DL's regional network won't die along with its parent.

LCCs such as AirTran or Southwest could experience rapid expansion including Southwest finally entry into ATL.
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4312
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:08 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
QF - lots of 777-300ERs, and more 737NGs

The 773 wont happen in 06/07 because:
1) They dont need it
2) They already have about $A12 BILLION worth of aircraft on order. (Thats about double their net asset backing.)
3) They have 12 A380s arriving to replaced the remaining B743s and all B744s over 16 years old.
4) They will wait until they have some actual numbers on the A380 from line service, before they decide to convert their A380 options and/or order something else (773ERs)

The 737NG seems unlikley because:
1) The last 4 of the current order were delivered just last year
2) A320 are still arriving for JQ
3) More domestic growth is expected thru JQ than mainline, suggesting if anything more is ordered for domestic ops it will be A320s

The only order from QF mainline this year MAYBE for B777-200ULR aircraft for non-stop SYD/MEL-LHR service, if Boeing can present QF with an acceptable deal.

For more discussion of why QF wont order the 773 or 748 in 2006 see http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/2565236/

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
7LBAC111
Posts: 2427
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2004 9:17 am

RE: My Predictions For 2006

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:26 am

Quoting Viv (Reply 1):
Most of your predictions will be wrong.

I love it when people say NO but choose not to offer an elaboration to support this knowledge.  sarcastic 

7L
Debate is what you put on de hook when you want to catch de fish.
 
sunrisevalley
Posts: 4990
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

RE: My Predictions For 2006

Mon Feb 20, 2006 12:06 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
NZ - some 773ERs.

I don't see the -300ER in NZ's future unless the 2X daily AKL-LHR dilutes traffic to the extent that the 747-8 is no longer the logical replacement for the 747-400.
I see more -200ER's particularly with the performance improvement program that Boeing is embarking on for this type.
 
FCYTravis
Posts: 1172
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 4:21 am

RE: My Predictions For 2006

Mon Feb 20, 2006 4:21 am

Quoting Piercey (Reply 41):
nah..... New management actually knows a thing or two. They could be getting rid of some trans-atlantic routes, though.

Ummm... how about, NO? They're *ADDING* trans-atlantic routes, if you haven't been paying attention. ARN, MXP and LIS are getting new service for 2006 - ARN seasonal with a 767, LIS seasonal with an ETOPS 757s and MXP year-round with a 767.
USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.

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