N908AW
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NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 2:08 am

One can't help but think with NW and DL both $150 million+ away from a deal with their pilots....a strike could happen, and would shut down the company(ies). What would happen to the industry if they both dissolved? We're talking about 15%+ less capacity!
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
 
nwafflyer
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 2:10 am

That's the #3 and #4 largest airlines in the world -- I can't see them going under, and personally, as a skyteam member, I hope they don't. Flying on NW tomorrow, and am booked with them into March
 
mrstl
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 2:15 am

Hmm, we would see airfares skyrocket, Dallas and Denver would become bigger overnight, F9,B6,FL,WN would expand as quickly as they could get planes. The desert would be a wasteland of DC-9's and there would be a lot of hard working middle class workers on the street. Let's hope it doesn't happen!

[Edited 2006-02-18 18:18:20]

[Edited 2006-02-18 18:19:06]
 
nwafflyer
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 2:22 am

And those of us who are business travellers would be at the mercy of American and United and US Air -- too bad AirCanada isn't in the US
 
isitsafenow
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 2:36 am

Quoting Nwafflyer (Reply 1):
I can't see them going under,

Oh, I can. And the percentage looms larger in favor of that everyday
a deal is NOT reached with unions. I am ticketed on NW next week, twice in March and once in mid April and I don't think I(or anyone) is to going make the April trip with NW.
The odds are now working against it. Some of the NW pilots will trip on over to Virgin-America who is now looking for Airbus pilots for their new airline.
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
redneckslim
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:05 am

I hope like hell they do! Both don't deserve to live, between screwing the employees and pax alike..... to hell with um'! The bottom line for unmedigated greed is death. A fresh new start vis-vis a totally new Airline, or just giving those still standing an injection of business would teach those on wall street a lesson. I'v had 100.000 NWA miles taken back because I tried to give them to my sister and NWA plays God and assumes they were sold! Got on a Delta flight after a hard day, and found out the G.D. catering bill had not been paid and no catering for that 5 hour flight! A diabetic can't use cokes and pretzels! Someone had bought a bunch of sandwitches before the flight and I was gifted one. Phuckk this kind of treatment! I pay serious Airline money, not bus fare! "Only the strong servive" sang Jerry Butler, Sing on Bro. Butler!
 
petmbro
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:27 am

Quoting Nwafflyer (Reply 1):
That's the #3 and #4 largest airlines in the world -- I can't see them going under

As sad as this situation is, we have to think back 15 years ago to the days of Pan Am and Eastern. Two huge carriers from way back in the pioneering days of flying both ceased to exist from massive debt and striking pilots (ironic how DL dominates ATL like Eastern and operates out of the Pan Am Worldport at JFK). Size doesn't matter. If you screw over your pilots and they don't fly, then you're up a creek. Its a shame they couldn't learn from past mistakes.

[Edited 2006-02-18 19:36:00]
"don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining!" - Judge Judy
 
Cadet57
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:29 am

Quoting Redneckslim (Reply 5):
hope like hell they do! Both don't deserve to live, between screwing the employees and pax alike..... to hell with um'!



Do you honestly beleive all that you just said? You are talking about THOUSADS of peoples JOBS and LIVELIHOODS. If you have anyone to be pissed at you shold be pissed at the management. Not the rank and file that work their asses off everyday to make sure as hell that they WONT be on the street next week becasue MANAGEMENT screwed them. So next time when your shoot your mouth off wishing people lost their jobs, realize they are not the ones who loose 8 million a day. Realize their the ones who work their asses off each day to help DL and NW stay afloat for another day...

[Edited 2006-02-18 19:50:45]
Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
 
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Revelation
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:48 am

Quoting N908AW (Thread starter):
One can't help but think with NW and DL both $150 million+ away from a deal with their pilots....a strike could happen, and would shut down the company(ies).

Same thing was being said when US and UA were on strike. Odds are totally against this happening.

Quoting N908AW (Thread starter):
What would happen to the industry if they both dissolved? We're talking about 15%+ less capacity!

A lotl of their assets would get reused, so we would not see 15% less capacity.
Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
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northwestair
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:56 am

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 4):
The odds are now working against it. Some of the NW pilots will trip on over to Virgin-America who is now looking for Airbus pilots for their new airline.
safe

I bet you that Virgin America won't hire any of the NW or DL Pilots if they go on Strike. I know I wouldn't. If our Pilots go on Strike then they better run down to the nearest Home Depot and get an application. I really don't see there being a strike by either airline and I hope there isn't.
I don't care who you fly just as long as you fly
 
MKEdude
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:56 am

I don't think it's likely, but I wouldn't completely discount it either. Even if they fix their respective union troubles, another spike in the price of oil could be enough to finish them off. In such a scenario ATL, DTW, MSP, CVG and SLC would become ghost towns overnight, and airfares would skyrocket. CO and UA would be the big winners initially as they would rush to fill in the void in the international markets, while B6 and FL would struggle to get their hands on any plane they could find.
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline." Frank Zappa
 
redneckslim
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:04 am

The employees would quickly be taken in by the lucky airlines that get the spoils vis-a-vis pax who still must travel and will come running with reservations in hand, the employees in most cases have all worked for other airlines before coming into NWA by way of mergers, transfers, and just looking to go with a different airline (poor fools) These highly experenced and trained people would be needed by the carriers taking the left over business NWA and DL left behind. I was recently on a LAX-NRT flight with a F/A in business who was a Republic/Air West transplant who started out as a PSA F/A
 
northwestair
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:06 am

If Crude Oil spikes again DL/NW won't be the only Airlines out of Business you will see possibly CO/AA/UA/US. Right now both AA/CO are at the same point were DL/NW was last year. So I wouldn't be surprised if you see CO/AA in the BK courts. I hope not, but it could happen.
I don't care who you fly just as long as you fly
 
NWDC10
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:07 am

Watch the invation of airlines into ATL Robert NWDC10
 
Tango-Bravo
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:32 am

Quoting MKEdude (Reply 10):
In such a scenario ATL, DTW, MSP, CVG and SLC would become ghost towns overnight,

But not for long. In no more than 30-60 days the capacity lost at each of these airports would be replaced as called for by market demand by other airlines who would move quickly to reallocate resources to fill the void. Keep in mind that a very significant number of pax using these airports are "just passing through" on connecting flights; these pax could be, and would be, redirected through other hub cities on other airlines with relative ease -- almost overnight.

As for non-stop services between the airports named and major cities, primarily for the benefit of O&D pax, we would see the likes of Southwest, AirTran, JetBlue, Sun Country, Frontier, Spirit, and perhaps even Virgin America, pick up much of the slack as quickly as they could obtain additional aircraft. And who knows? -- a legacy or two may even "think outside the box" and add some point-to-point non-stop routes between non-hub cities from the "ghost town" (for a few days to 2 weeks at most) airports -- with mainline equipment no less!
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting MKEdude (Reply 10):
CO and UA would be the big winners initially as they would rush to fill in the void in the international markets,

Assuming both airlines can get their hands on additional aircraft for that purpose. The four lenders at UA might grant them additional capital to pick up some used aircraft, but then our government (and others) will be wary of letting UA have even more flights into NRT, FRA, etc. than they already do. Would UA be the dominant carrier into NRT if NW fails? Would Japan and the US allow that? Very, very doubtful. AA and probably CO would get more flights, not UA...especially with W in the White House.

UA is walking a tightrope in terms of available widebodies to use on its routes, and losing a 744 (temporarily) in MEL a week or so ago doesn't help the summer Australia-US market either.
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
commavia
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:45 am

Quoting Northwestair (Reply 12):
If Crude Oil spikes again DL/NW won't be the only Airlines out of Business you will see possibly CO/AA/UA/US.

AA has built up an enormous cash balance of over $4B (the most of any U.S. airline today) for this exact reason -- in the event of a shock or other major event that would materially negatively impact their cost of operations in an extreme way.

Quoting Northwestair (Reply 12):
Right now both AA/CO are at the same point were DL/NW was last year.

That is completely false. As for AA, AA is actually cash positive and has been for several quarters. AA and CO both have low operating costs (relative to the majors, but also increasingly relative to even the LCCs who have watched their costs creep up due to labor and fuel of late) and both are firmly on the way to recovery. They are -- by no means -- "[where] DL/NW was last year."
 
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mariner
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:54 am

Quoting Northwestair (Reply 9):
I bet you that Virgin America won't hire any of the NW or DL Pilots if they go on Strike.

Why not? They're still good pilots.

If NWA has brought its labor relations to such a sorry pass, most educated industry observers would understand the reasons for a strike.

Strike is not necessarily an ignoble word. The present freedom of Poland began with the strike st Gdansk.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
SongStar
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 5:21 am

Quoting Redneckslim (Reply 5):
Got on a Delta flight after a hard day, and found out the G.D. catering bill had not been paid and no catering for that 5 hour flight! A diabetic can't use cokes and pretzels! Someone had bought a bunch of sandwitches before the flight and I was gifted one. Phuckk this kind of treatment! I pay serious Airline money, not bus fare! "Only the strong servive" sang Jerry Butler, Sing on Bro. Butler!

Catering bill was paid...Gate Gourmet was playing "God"....and that's a fact...while your business is greatly appreciated i have never understood why someone who is diabetic travels without something to eat in case something happens...who's playing russian rullette ??

Also...those who lose their jobs aren't so quickly going to run to another airline that is now paying starting flight attendants somewhere around $17 an hour...it equates to about $17,000 a year....( ie: united's recent hiring )

It's not so easily remedied....I hope only the best for both airlines...

You're angry....I guess that's understandable...the Delta catering thing was well over a year ago....could you possibly let go? it's not good to keep so much hatred built up inside...


i'll close by asking this....where does your airline loyalty lie now? are you true to one carrier? and how are they measuring up? Hope things are working out
 
panamair
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:18 am

Quoting Petmbro (Reply 6):
As sad as this situation is, we have to think back 15 years ago to the days of Pan Am and Eastern. Two huge carriers from way back in the pioneering days of flying both ceased to exist from massive debt and striking pilots (ironic how DL dominates ATL like Eastern and operates out of the Pan Am Worldport at JFK). Size doesn't matter

But people forget that when PA and EA went out, they were merely shells of their former selves; their rather paltry size back then did not have much of an impact on the nation's air transportation system (in fact, PA was never that big to begin with). However, in the case of NW and DL, even though they have been reducing capacity, they are many times larger than PA and EA were at the end of their lives. Both NW and DL going on strike and shutting down at the same time would have a pretty significant impact (at least in the short-medium term) and you're likely to see the government step in to ensure that "significant disruption in the nation's air transportation system does not affect economic activity and growth.." Maybe if one of them was on strike would not necessitate the Bush Administration stepping in, but the two at the same time certainly would.

Quoting SongStar (Reply 18):
You're angry....I guess that's understandable...the Delta catering thing was well over a year ago....could you possibly let go? it's not good to keep so much hatred built up inside...

i'll close by asking this....where does your airline loyalty lie now? are you true to one carrier? and how are they measuring up? Hope things are working out

SongStar, I certainly admire your sense of patience and healthy attitude with this kind of stuff...I guess that's why you guys make such great FAs....I often see the kind of crap FAs have to put up with from idiotic pax. and I know I would never have the patience to deal with such situations...I would have smacked the passenger a long time ago....Keep up the good work at Song/DL and good luck with the re-integration back into DL Mainline.
 
srbmod
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:22 am

Let me put on my armchair CEO cap and put a prediction for ATL if DL goes out (If NW went out, it would be a bit of a blip since DL and FL already serve the cities NW flies to out of ATL):


United and America take over all of Concourse T (American takes over most of T South, United the rest).

Continental and Northwest take over half of Concourse A, Southwest takes over the other half.

AirTran takes over Concourse B and ASA stays on C North, as AirTran restarts AirTran JetConnect (Contract EV and OO to operate it) to provide regional feeder service out of ATL (and their new hub @ SLC) to a number of cities. They make a deal to acquire or lease a large chunk of the DL 738 fleet. They also add the 757 to their fleet as well.

Most of D North goes to US Airways, with Virgin America, JetBlue, Frontier, and Spirit taking up most of D South. Part of D South will take on a touch of the maple leaf as Air Canada increases service (and adds several cities) and WestJet enters the ATL-Canada market as well.

On Concourse E, some of the current International airlines will increase service, but some other airlines will enter ATL as well. Virgin Atlantic, Japan Air Lines come in to replace some DL service, plus CO, UA, and AA start some international services out of ATL as well. FL will add some international destinations as well.
 
raes
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:45 am

Even though NW and DL serve predominantly different markets, it is possible that one of them going into Ch. 7 could modestly contribute to keeping the other out. Assuming the survivor resolved its immediate labor issues (a daring assumption), it could benefit with others from the potential for fare hikes and rapid expansion in the short-to-medium term.

Again, the fate of WorldPerks and SkyMiles-- if and which airlines step in to take advantage of the newly orphaned loyalty-- will be an interesting study of the current state of the industry.
Alles für diesen Moment
 
vega
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:56 am

If the Bush administration has any money left, they would surely categorize an imminent demise of both NW and DL as a "national disaster" (which it would surely be) and render aid.
We are but a moment in this vast Universe and when gone we will never have existed.
 
ImperialEagle
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:04 am

Quoting Panamair (Reply 19):
But people forget that when PA and EA went out, they were merely shells of their former selves

But for the sake of argument, it seems to me that DL has indeed, become a shell of its former self, at least here in ATL. What with all the down-sizing, lay-offs, early retirements, and "outsourcing" of so many services. It is not an encouraging sign.

I am sure the same thing is going on at NW's base.

In my opinion the shut down of either DL or NW would be awful in just about any terms imagineable and if both shut down in rapid succession---a disaster for our economy in general.

When PA shut down it had already sold off its Pacific division to UA so it had lost its mass, and EA was not a "world-class" player when it shut down either.
BOTH DL and NW have become "world-class" players in the game since PA/EA shut down.

Yeah, in the event either one or both fold, others will step in and eventually fill the void----but like all MAJOR changes in life----it will not be easy.
I will sure hate to see them go.  twocents 
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough!"
 
N742AT
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:05 am

IF DL/NW would strike and become no more, yes a lot of people would be out of jobs but if you think about it, chances are that most employees would just get hired on by another airline. Its like everyone is saying every airline would be scrambling to get there paws on airplanes to begin to fill voids where they feel necessary which will create more jobs which would eventually level itself out. I have seen it happen before in MDW and IND when TZ had their cut backs most of there employees are now employed by FL. So to say that many people would be out of a job is not so true. Granted there would be a few that would be left with no job in the end and I hope it never happens but in reality its business it happens everyday. Especially in the airlines your job is never promised tomorrow.
 
isitsafenow
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:11 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 16):
AA has built up an enormous cash balance of over $4B (the most of any U.S. airline today)

I hate to wreck your train but a big hunk of that $$$$ belongs to the bank and not AA. Airlines or any business that have time to time cash flow problems, use either their line of credit which is monies available to them at a pre-determinded interest rate or they just go out and borrow it at a negociated rate.
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
commavia
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:24 am

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 25):
I hate to wreck your train but a big hunk of that $$$$ belongs to the bank and not AA. Airlines or any business that have time to time cash flow problems, use either their line of credit which is monies available to them at a pre-determinded interest rate or they just go out and borrow it at a negociated rate.

American has accrued long-term debt in the last four years in order to build up their short-term cash and investment equivelants balance, no doubt about it, but that still doesn't change the fact that regardless of where the money came from or, as you put it, who it "belongs to," American is now in possession of the money, has control over how it is spent (or not spent) and does not have to pay most of it back for years. It must be noted, however, than unlike most of its legacy competitors, American is and has been for quite some time cash-flow positive. American's operations are generating more cash than American is sending out the door, and that's a good thing.

For accounting and financial planning purposes, American has over $4B in cash and short-term equivelants. That is hopefully more than enough to handle just about any conceivable major shock that comes there way (as, afterall, it's more than any other airline in the United States has).
 
panamair
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:32 am

Quoting ImperialEagle (Reply 23):
But for the sake of argument, it seems to me that DL has indeed, become a shell of its former self, at least here in ATL. What with all the down-sizing, lay-offs, early retirements, and "outsourcing" of so many services. It is not an encouraging sign

Yes, psychologically, DL may be a shell of its former self, but DL RPMs are still solidly #3 in the country (quite a distance between #3 and #4) and it still runs 850-1000 flights a day out of ATL (PA hardly had more than 200-300 flights a day in its entire route network at its peak, and by 1991, it was only operating a handful of domestic and Latin American routes). DL still carries more than 250,000 passengers a day A simultaneous strike together with NW will have a significant impact on the country's economy in the short to medium term. I'm not saying that the Bush Admin will step in with $$ but rather an emergency back-to-work order for the pilots of both.
 
AirRyan
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:33 am

Quoting MrSTL (Reply 2):
we would see airfares skyrocket,

The simple plain truth is that airfares are relatively as inexpensive today as they were 25 years ago and that is the reason as to why US carriers cannot turn much if any of a profit. Airlines need to charge airfares based upon profitability and not this sense of charity that has stricken the industry on whole today. My solution is that the legacy carriers unite - yes, trump the hypocritical and beraucratical US Government and tell them to either subsidize they like is done to many US farmers or STFU while we collectively raise our prices so as we can earn a profit and eventually the LCC' capacity will not allow them to keep up and if PAX want to get where they want when they want, their simply going to have to pay what it costs for that business to conduct business. Hell, I'm sure that as long sa WN is %5 cheaper in their airfares relative to the industry they really wouldn't turn down $$$ to be made.
 
Alitalia744
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:38 am

Quoting N742AT (Reply 24):
IF DL/NW would strike and become no more, yes a lot of people would be out of jobs but if you think about it, chances are that most employees would just get hired on by another airline

There's more at stake for the employees than "simply loosing their jobs and getting hired on by another airline."

one had to account for the phsyical and psychological effects this would have...

sad situation. Here's to hoping Delta pulls through.
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
N742AT
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:01 am

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 29):
There's more at stake for the employees than "simply loosing their jobs and getting hired on by another airline."

Oh believe me I know there is more at stake than losing a job and getting hired by another airline. I once went through this with an airline where my job was outsourced, there is nothing we can do except keep doing your best and hope for the best. I did realize that I couldn't sit there and think about not having a job I had to pick up the pieces, cut my losses and get right back out there. I did, and now I'm back to where i started, really cant say I lost anything. So although I would really feel for each employee if something like that did happen, all I can tell them is hopefully you can get another job and bounce back like I did. In this industry everyone has to understand that no one every has your back its all for one and everyman for themselves. Its a cut throat environment and only the strong will survive. If you read this and you are employed by DL or NW I just want to say good luck in the coming months and I hope everything works out for you.
 
ImperialEagle
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:39 am

The "old timers" in retail used to say "a half a sale is better than no sale", and speaking of old timers that reminds me--------.
I seem to recall a story about some guy in the U.K. from years ago. I think his name was Hillman. Anyway, he had the idea that pilots were nothing more than airborne bus drivers and paid them accordingly. (Of course I hardly think bus drivers have their careers "flash before their eyes" every time they have to take a re-current, etc.and never mind the rest of the STRESS level---).
So having said that, it sure does appear to me that senior management now view pilots as nothing more than computer programmers who monitor the bus.

Given that (here in the U.S. at least) all everyone wants is low fares, low fares, low fares. Isn't it all boiling down to just a ride on the bus?

I mean, it sure seems like over the years since deregulation thats where we have been headed. And domestically here in the U.S. the only airline of late I've flown on that was not just like a bus is Midwest, and I wonder how much longer THEY can hold out----they certainly have a great product for the money! A trip on all the legacy carriers has become "homogenous". Other than UA's wonderful Ch.#9 I can think of no difference, and I've flown 'em all lately since I have lost any kind of brand loyalty I once had, oh s--t,  stirthepot  thats another story altogether.

Anyway----just another  twocents .
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough!"
 
jumbojet
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:14 am

The million dollar question:

I just recently booked a flight on Delta.com flying JFK to KUL on Korean air metal. If Delta should fold will Korean air still honor my ticket?
 
isitsafenow
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:22 am

[quote=Commavia,reply=26]American has over $4B in cash and short-term equivelants. That is hopefully more than enough to handle just about any conceivable major shock that comes there wa[/quote
And when or if the "shock" comes, the banks can call in their loans. You need to read the small print on a loan, son. The bank can call in their loan whenever they want. Ninety nine times out of 100 they don't but they do have the right to do so if they feel you are now a "bad" risk instead of a "good" risk. Remember, it's THEIR money.
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
thepilot730
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RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:36 am

All I can say is that DL and NW will not go on strike. If the pilots DO go on strike the President will envoke a National Strike Emergency, under the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947. Once the pilots go on strike the President, under this act, can send the pilots back to work for a period of 90 days were more negotiations will take place. The Government will not allow the pilots to go on strike because the number 3 and 4 airlines in the world can seriously cripple the US economy.

Clinton did this I believe in 1995 or 1996 when American Airlines pilots went on strike. He ordered them back to work and the pilots and management came to a resolution.
 
atcrick
Posts: 719
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 1:05 pm

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:39 am

All arguments are valid here and I compliment all posters for not turning this thread ino a bashing thread. Bottom line, a ton of decent, hard working, industry loving people would be out of work. That's the biggest shame.

Rgds,

Rick
natch!!
 
sllevin
Posts: 3312
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 1:57 pm

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:54 am

The unions will have to cave in the end. The airlines know this.

Airline management types can find comparable jobs over time either at other airlines, or in other industries. Pilots are much more specialized workers that make money based on seniority. There are already 5,000+ pilots sitting on their behinds. If either NW or DL shuts down, even the younger 1/3 of their pilots will be lucky to ever get hired on and make captain before age 60. The older 1/3 will effectively retire the day their airline shuts down, because they are unlikely to ever work again.

Steve
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 11:05 am

Quoting Northwestair (Reply 12):
If Crude Oil spikes again DL/NW won't be the only Airlines out of Business you will see possibly CO/AA/UA/US. Right now both AA/CO are at the same point were DL/NW was last year. So I wouldn't be surprised if you see CO/AA in the BK courts. I hope not, but it could happen.

given where AA's stock is right now and where other carriers stock is such as B6, "The Street" seems to think that AA has a better chance of surviving than carriers such as B6..............

and DL/NW were well in trouble a year ago, AA had that problem a FEW years ago, hence their stock price was just a few dollars/share, as everyone thought they were going to hit bankruptcy, but they avoided it, and unlike many other air carriers (especially the legacies), worked hard with the unions.......now they are cash flow positive...which is great!

keeps their debt rating better, and easier to raise money...

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 25):
I hate to wreck your train but a big hunk of that $$$$ belongs to the bank and not AA. Airlines or any business that have time to time cash flow problems, use either their line of credit which is monies available to them at a pre-determinded interest rate or they just go out and borrow it at a negociated rate.
safe

once again, with AA's stock doing well, they are cash-flow positive, they have better debt ratings, easier for them to offer a secondary or get a loan compared to other carriers..

remember, its comparison to peers which is most important.....AA will be one of the last ones to go under at this point in time......
"Up the Irons!"
 
commavia
Posts: 10071
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 11:23 am

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 33):
And when or if the "shock" comes, the banks can call in their loans.

Now, let's think through this. When a shock comes, why would banks want to call in debts that they know American would not be able to service, subsequently forcing the airline into bankruptcy, where there is a good chance all of their unsecured claims would go completely or mostly unpaid? Why on earth would banks do that? Especially when considering that American has proven time and time again in the last five years since 9/11 that while times have been tough, they have always met their financial obligations. American's CEO Gerard Arpey has said on numerous occassions that American still feels it has more than adequate access to the capital markets and that American feels that it will be able to service its outstanding long-term debt in the future. In addition, why would banks not want to work with American -- in the unfortunate event that a national tragedy befalls American and/or its airlines again -- in order to restructure the debt so that American could pay it? The banks already did it before, when American restructued an $833M credit facility into an $850M credit facility with new terms, a longer maturity, and a different financial ratio covenant. (How's that for small print?)

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 33):
You need to read the small print on a loan, son.

Please, spare me the speech and don't patronize me. I'm not an idiot, and I'm certainly not your "son."
 
Devil505x
Posts: 220
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 3:55 am

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 11:52 am

Its all bs. US shouldn't be around as they were written off by many but they ain't dead yet either.
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2567
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:12 pm

First off, I hope airline management and unions can settle things very civilized way and no carrier has to cease business.

As for worst case scenario (from an Asian perspective), DL folding wouldn't affect a thing as they only fly NRT-ATL. On the other hand, NW is another story.
DL's slot at NRT will go the way to FedEx or UPS like the last time they restructured Pacific ops.

NW has 5th freedom and many slots at highly congested NRT. Japan will allow another US carrier 5th freedom routes to the carrier that purchases the rights. However, all the Asian slots NW had will go to EK, QR, TG, SQ, MU, CZ, & CA or other non-American carrier that petitions for NRT slots. Therefore the succeeded carrier will not have slots to fly 5th freedom routes from NRT, but more than welcome to fly from any other Japanese airport.
As for Pacific routes: AA & HA get HNL slots, plus more to AA & UA and probably a few slots maybe even distributed to FedEx or UPS.
NH will definitely re-start NRT-ORD and possibly NRT-DEN with all the transpac capacity gone.
JL will go double daily on the NRT-LAX, restart service to SEA with 763 or 772ER, and rescind its recent decision to halt NRT-LAS-LAX-NRT & KIX-LAX service.

From KIX & NGO, most likely again UA & AA will be the big beneficiary as no other carrier flies transpac other than JL's KIX-LAX service.

The large problem with US carriers expanding quickly to fill NW or DL void is fleet problems except at UA. UA has the option of modifying the ex-NW 744s or taking out the extra 744s sitting in the desert. AA & CO are locked in on the 777s which there are none on the second hand market, though AA has the advantage that it has a larger 777 fleet to play around with.
NH & JL on the other hand do have fleet options with many transpac capable planes already in its fleet or new deliveries this year.
 
scotron11
Posts: 1191
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 4:54 pm

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:15 pm

I know PanAm and Eastern, Braniff & TWA happened. But I cannot think of Delta going under. Northwest the same.

Maybe a "gigantic" merger would be good, for the companies and employees. But either way, job losses are a certainty, aren't they?
 
commavia
Posts: 10071
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:17 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 41):
Maybe a "gigantic" merger would be good, for the companies and employees.

In the scheme of things, I think a merger ("gigantic" or otherwise) would be about the last thing that either or both of these airlines need. It would divert management focus away from fixing their sinking ships, and cost millions in integration costs for two fleets, networks and operating structures that have very little in common. In addition, it would be decidedly bad for employees, as it would open old wounds and surely lead to even more layoffs.

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 41):
But either way, job losses are a certainty, aren't they?

On the non-stop, up-and-down roller coast that has been the U.S. airline industry for the last five years, I'd have to say that yes, job losses are just about the only sure thing!
 
g4resagent
Posts: 182
Joined: Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:29 pm

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:17 pm

I am going to be traveling RNO - MBJ this July. Out of RNO, Delta is the cheapest. Should I pay the extra $50 and fly UA/US/HP or take the chance and fly DL?
 
aa757first
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Aug 03, 2003 11:40 am

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:26 pm

Quoting Sllevin (Reply 36):
There are already 5,000+ pilots sitting on their behinds. If either NW or DL shuts down, even the younger 1/3 of their pilots will be lucky to ever get hired on and make captain before age 60. The older 1/3 will effectively retire the day their airline shuts down, because they are unlikely to ever work again.

I agree with that. Pilots are probably the least mobile people in the world. A very limited number of employers (I bet 20 airlines account for 85% of pilots worldwide) and the non-commerical options are not the most favorable. Being a flight instructor earns little money. Not to mention a pilot's experience does not carry over to another industry. Pilots would have to be willing to go back to school, take an unskilled job or just retire.

AAndrew
 
scotron11
Posts: 1191
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 4:54 pm

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:32 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 42):

In the scheme of things, I think a merger ("gigantic" or otherwise) would be about the last thing that either or both of these airlines need.

It doesn't have to be DL/NW per se. But they do cooperate as part of Skyteam, yes? They both operate Boeings and MD's, yes? NW has an extensive Pacific presence, which DL doesn't, yes? While I agree there are lots of factors to take into consideration, maybe the cost is less than the alternative, no?

If over capacity is killing the US airline industry, then something has to give. Either that something is an airline going under or two becoming one.
 
skymileman
Posts: 577
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2001 2:32 am

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:49 pm

Quoting MrSTL (Reply 2):
Hmm, we would see airfares skyrocket, Dallas and Denver would become bigger overnight, F9,B6,FL,WN would expand as quickly as they could get planes. The desert would be a wasteland of DC-9's and there would be a lot of hard working middle class workers on the street. Let's hope it doesn't happen!

Ooh, you know, I always thought Northwest (The company) would be getting what they deserve if they went out of business, but now that you put it that way, it doesn't sound too good. welcome to my respected users list.
 
jjeff
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2003 11:52 am

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:54 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
Quoting N908AW (Thread starter):
One can't help but think with NW and DL both $150 million+ away from a deal with their pilots....a strike could happen, and would shut down the company(ies).



Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
Same thing was being said when US and UA were on strike. Odds are totally against this happening.

Agree that odds are against but would add that Delta and Northwest probably aren't viewed as equally strategic to the well-being of the US economy as American or United and just don't get the same sort of "too big to fail" sentiment that their larger rivals did.
 
scotron11
Posts: 1191
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 4:54 pm

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:00 pm

Quoting JJeff (Reply 47):

Agree that odds are against but would add that Delta and Northwest probably aren't viewed as equally strategic

Which was the government's view on UAL when they applied for loan guarantees!
 
commavia
Posts: 10071
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: NW And DL Gone (maybe) -- What Happens?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:04 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 45):
But they do cooperate as part of Skyteam, yes?

Agreed. Indeed, I think this is definitely going to be a strategy both actively pursue -- trying to generate as much respective revenue for each other as possible through codesharing, etc. But I don't think a full blown merger for either carrier -- with each other or any other airlines -- is in the cards anytime soon.

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