peterinlisbon
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What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:31 am

I was reading the other that oil is set to run out fairly soon, with the last drop of oil being used in 37 years time. Very soon, if it has not ocurred already, production will reach its peak and actually start decreasing year by year (whilst demand continues to increase, you can imagine what will happen to prices, in fact this is already happening).

In 18 years time yearly oil production could be half what it is today, which would obviously lead to extreme shortages and oil prices far too high to sustain most of today's air traffic. That's without taking into account possible wars for control over the remaining petroleum, and the general effect on the world's economy.

So, to avoid most air services from being stopped within the next 20-30 years, we would have to switch an alternative fuel. So my question to those of you that might have some knowledge in this areas is: is there one? Can planes fly on anything else, or will the end of oil also be the end of avaition?

[Edited 2006-02-18 23:32:48]
 
flyf15
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On One Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:34 am

Surely it will not be the end of aviation, but we haven't developed the new technology today. Sadly, many businesses involved are not enough forward thinking to start worrying about this problem now. How many CEOs and management teams, as well as investors and researchers, want to pour money into something (affecting their financial numbers negatively right now) for something that may only be valuable 20-40 years from now (most likely long after they're not longer involved with the company)?
 
isitsafenow
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 7:52 am

When I was a kid, I had this neat plane with a rubber band propeller. It worked!
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
seanp11
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:02 am

Biodiesel? It can be made from algae. Plus it would burn nicely in turbines.
 
N742AT
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:03 am

Well it would be nice if H2O was an option, but since it isnt solar is always a thought. Planes do see a lot of sun so its an option.
 
IanatSTN
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:06 am

Would be interesting to hear the ideas for the new types of fuel.

Would also be interested in hearing what would happen to the aircraft already in service, how much of a job would it be to reconfigure all existing aircraft to run off newer fuels? Any help would be appreciated.

Cheers,
Ian.
Ian@STN ::
 
moparman
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:06 am

Ummm... LOL!! Where are you getting this idea that the world is running out of oil? There are enormous reserves in Russia; there are enormous reserves in South America; the largest reserves (and also the most expensive to get to) are in North America. By the time it does run out, current estimates range from 200-500 years at current consumption, there will be other sources of power for aircraft (and spacecraft).
"Harming a patient is unethical, but I can inflict as much pain as I like" Dr. Phlox
 
nateDAL
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:11 am

Actually, we are never going to "run out" of oil.

It may get too expensive relative to other energy sources, but we will never exhaust the world's oil resources. A superior alternative will be developed, I have no doubt.

[Edited 2006-02-19 00:12:09]
Set Love Free
 
N766UA
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:13 am

I say we just sit it out and wait a few million years and...just like that.... we'll have enormous quantities of oil again ready for our consumption!

Regarding solar, though... would never work. Panels are too heavy.
This Website Censors Me
 
satx
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:23 am

Quoting N766UA (Reply 8):
Regarding solar, though... would never work. Panels are too heavy.



Quoting http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/04/0407_050407_solarairplanes.html:
NASA's Helios prototype solar-powered airplane flies over the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii. Solar cells on the craft's 247-foot (75-meter) wings supply the plane with electricity to power its propellers.

Photograph courtesy NASA
Open Season on Consumer Protections is Just Around the Corner...
 
Poitin
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:33 am

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
I was reading the other that oil is set to run out fairly soon, with the last drop of oil being used in 37 years time. Very soon, if it has not ocurred already, production will reach its peak and actually start decreasing year by year (whilst demand continues to increase, you can imagine what will happen to prices, in fact this is already happening).

In 18 years time yearly oil production could be half what it is today, which would obviously lead to extreme shortages and oil prices far too high to sustain most of today's air traffic. That's without taking into account possible wars for control over the remaining petroleum, and the general effect on the world's economy.

Your premise that we will run out of oil in the next 30 years is wrong. While the easily extracted oil we have been using may run out, the vast majority of our oil deposits have not been tapped. Just in the last few years the oil sands of Alberta have been tapped and the oil shale if the USA have not been tapped at all. True, fuel will cost more, but it will be available.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
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peterinlisbon
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:38 am

Quoting Moparman (Reply 6):
Where are you getting this idea that the world is running out of oil? There are enormous reserves in Russia; there are enormous reserves in South America; the largest reserves (and also the most expensive to get to) are in North America. By the time it does run out, current estimates range from 200-500 years at current consumption, there will be other sources of power for aircraft (and spacecraft).

Here are a couple of news articles and links about the subject:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3777413.stm
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/global.warming/

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.oilcrisis.com/magoon/
http://www.i-sis.org.uk/OilRunningOut.php
 
CRJ705
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:06 am

I asked my professor in Chemistry about the subject of oil running out. He basically laughed at me and said that if our reserves of easy to get oil runs out, we can always reform other hydrocarbons (coal comes into mind) and we can extract oil from the oil sands in Alberta as well as the Oil Shales in Colorado (I think thats where it is, please forgive me if I am wrong). My professor also said that as we have come to say that we will run out of oil, more is being discovered. Besides, we have enough oil at current production rates to last us a while, and if oil does run out, no doubt we would come up with alternatives to oil or use existing technology and techniques, despeite their lower yields. So the question of oil running out is a scenario that we must consider, but it is not something that we need to be too worried about.

Regards
CRJ705
 
seanp11
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:07 am

These guys probably don't believe that a number of aquifers in the west are in danger of running out, and the surrounding rivers do not have enough flow to supply all the population centers in danger. We are running out of resources. To say that wont happen is asinine.
 
isitsafenow
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:13 am

[quote=Seanp11,reply=13]We are running out of resources. To say that wont happen is asinine.
[/quote
Of course we are running out. We just disagree on WHEN we will exhaust the supply.
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:23 am

Quoting Seanp11 (Reply 3):
Biodiesel? It can be made from algae. Plus it would burn nicely in turbines.

Biodiesel can and has been grown via plants. It is just an ordinary plant, has a flower, stem, leaf etc.

There are very, very few of these fields left. There used to be many a few years back, but sadly the 'Perfume' is too strong and would cause an Asthma attack for all asthmatics that went anywhere near it.

It is still possible, but would probably have to be grown in masssive enclosures like the 'Eden Project' but to fuel 50-100 aircraft, i think it would take the space of the 'Eden Project'. Considering how many aircraft there are, you would probably need an area the size of the UK with plants growing all year round to fullfil the requirements.

Thanks
Mike

Edit: Cars can be run on alcohol aswell, but i think this is just Ethanol.

[Edited 2006-02-19 01:25:16]
 
jamesbuk
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:28 am

Quoting SATX (Reply 9):
SATX

If your happy to fly over the atlantic in that thing go ahead be my guest im going no-where near that thing.  Wink

Their are massive massive companies out there earning gazzilions, you really think they are going to go bust!?! No, when the time is right they will pour money into research to find the cheapest soloution for everyone, their not going to let some oil make them bust.
They probably already have developed some sort of replacement and just not released it so that other companies dont copy. The world will never really resort to solar, Wind, Tidal etc because liek some have said its too much effort do so little.

Rgds --James--

P.S. I hope that made sense and I didnt just babble on
You cant have your cake and eat it... What the hells the point in having it then!!!
 
N766UA
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:37 am

Dude that's a solid flying wing. Try putting it on a fusulage with passengers, freight, baggage, etc. etc. etc. It wouldn't work.
This Website Censors Me
 
tjc2
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:41 am

Although not strictly aviation, i feel this is relative to this topic:

I visited the World Centre for Joining (nr Cambridge, UK) which deals with a lot of 'joining' on a variety of scales. One of which was the micro-soldering/welding on micro-circuit boards, the kind incorporated in mobile telephones. Though in a vague fashion; our guide explained how the technology of mobile phones is leagues further than what is available to the public. It is not available yet because there is no need to bring it out when the current market of video/multimedia phones are making so much money for operators & service providers.

In this sense, If you look at the Oil Industry, it is one of the most lucrative in the world. Now I don't know exactly when the oil is going 'run out', but I don't think the companies would stop using it up (until the very last drop) unless it was truly evident that it was just about to, in a relative sense, run out.

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
That's without taking into account possible wars for control over the remaining petroleum

Don't forget that technology advances vastly during war. Look at WW1 and WW2 for instance. Two sides circumventing each other creating new technology of their own, and at the same time trying to develop means to be one up on the others.

I think this area of the future of aviation a very interesting discussion point and would like to read other peoples views on the matter.

enjoy,
coop
The only time I made a mistake was when I thought I was wrong...
 
N5176Y
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:42 am

Necessity is the mother of invention.
 
Tifoso
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:56 am

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 1):
, many businesses involved are not enough forward thinking to start worrying about this problem now.

We really need government money to further new energy sources. Not many CEOs are going to invest in research when they can do something else and show Wall Street better earnings and profits.

One cool solution would be nuclear. I wonder if we can make it safe enough for aviation.  Smile
 
ikramerica
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:14 am

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
I was reading the other that oil is set to run out fairly soon, with the last drop of oil being used in 37 years time

They've been saying this since the 70s. Over a generation away is always the number, as it's far enough in the future that anyone who claims it will be retired before it doesn't come true.

I was just watching "The Man With The Golden Gun" and the whole premise of that 70s film is that oil is running out and there is this new solar technology that is 95% efficient and would solve the "energy crisis." Neither of those things have come to pass 30 years later. Must be one long crisis...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
lhrmaccoll
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:28 am

Biodiesel. The way of the future. If you can run props on it, the technology will soon arise for turbines. 100% clean. 100% renewable.
Superb.
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:39 am

Quoting Tjc2 (Reply 18):
Don't forget that technology advances vastly during war. Look at WW1 and WW2 for instance. Two sides circumventing each other creating new technology of their own, and at the same time trying to develop means to be one up on the others.

The reason that technology has advanced so quickly this century is precisely because of oil. The difference between world war 1 and 2 in terms of technology is enormous, but if you think about it all of this technology was developed from oil: tanks, planes, etc. The F16s of today and even America's latest stealth fighters or cruise missiles are powered by the same fuel as those used in WW1.

In 100 years we haven't found an alternative, and we need it to be ready in 20 years or the whole industry is going to go into decline and ultimately collapse - not just a few, but almost all of the airlines will go bankrupt and there will be no flights. At least, not for most of us if a ticket from London to New York costs 20,000$.

Nobody even knows if it is possible to fuel this industry with something else. What is the point of planning to build new airports which will open in 2020 or so, if at that point the industry will be in decline and perhaps only have a maximum of 20 years of life left. At that point all of these new terminals might as well be demolished.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 10):
Your premise that we will run out of oil in the next 30 years is wrong. While the easily extracted oil we have been using may run out, the vast majority of our oil deposits have not been tapped. Just in the last few years the oil sands of Alberta have been tapped and the oil shale if the USA have not been tapped at all. True, fuel will cost more, but it will be available.

Regarding the oil sands etc, this is in fact taken into account in prediction of 37 years. These will be used last of course, once we run out of petrol in its liquid form, but a certain amount of energy is needed to extract the petrol from the oil sands and other solid sources. It is another factor which will increase the price of oil before it completely runs out. If you need to use a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil, it is futile, which means that in fact it is physically impossible for us to use all of the oil that exists on the planet.

Apart from the solar plane idea, which I find interesting but I don't see ever replacing a 747 (which is what we need), has anyone got any other ideas?
 
jacobin777
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:47 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 21):
I was just watching "The Man With The Golden Gun" and the whole premise of that 70s film is that oil is running out and there is this new solar technology that is 95% efficient and would solve the "energy crisis." Neither of those things have come to pass 30 years later. Must be one long crisis...

so was I.............!

along with Stromberg, Scramanga was always one of my favourites........

I'm not so sure about Daniel Craig as the newest James Bond member, I very much liked Pierce Brosnan...he was a phenomenal James Bond.
"Up the Irons!"
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:54 am

Quoting Lhrmaccoll (Reply 22):
100% clean.

Actually Biodiesel is not 100% clean. It has less carbon emmisions that lead to Global Warming etc. and will still pollute the atmosphere. It is still Diesel, just a different kind with less pollution and is extracted from plants.

There is one problem though, Kerosene and Diesel have different burning temperatures.

Kerosene is used because it has a high burning temperature that causes combustion when it is put into the flame in the engine etc. (Not sure fully how an a/c engine works)

Kerosene is 170 degrees celcius where as Diesel fuels are 270 degrees celcius to burn in the Fractional Distillation tower which means that they each require different temperatures to be heated for combustion and to make thrust.

Which in terms means that a much more powerful engine type is required. That is why Diesel powered cars cost more  Smile

Thanks
Mike
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 11:09 am

Quoting N5176Y (Reply 19):
Necessity is the mother of invention.

This something which is needed now and nothing has been invented. If companies do not want to invest in developing this sort of new technology now when they have the resources, how will they do it when this crisis hits them. In many ways this is happening allready (oil prices have gone up in the past few years from 20$ to 80$). A French investment bank predicted prices of 380$ per barrel by 2015 (just 9 years away).

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...86-740C-482B-8150-DA57696BC02F.htm
 
satx
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 11:53 am

Quoting N766UA (Reply 17):
Dude that's a solid flying wing. Try putting it on a fusulage with passengers, freight, baggage, etc. etc. etc. It wouldn't work.

Oh, you mean like this...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/95/Wrightflyer.jpg/800px-Wrightflyer.jpg

Quoting Tifoso (Reply 20):
One cool solution would be nuclear. I wonder if we can make it safe enough for aviation.

First try and figure out where you're going to store the aircraft for the next million years. Then figure out how to make it safe enough for flying. Rockets with nuclear components haven't been terribly failsafe so far. Here are some previous examples.

1964 A U.S. Navy navigation satellite fails to reach orbit and re-enters the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean. Plutonium dust from its RTG scatters. A year later, plutonium levels in the Southern Hemisphere are reported to be four times higher than in the Northern Hemisphere.

1965 A wrong command causes the core of the reactor of an Atomic Energy Commission nuclear rocket experiment to eject.

1968 A rocket launching a research satellite from Vandenberg, Calif., wanders off course. The range safety officer blows it up, and the satellite's RTG lands in the Santa Barbara Channel.

1970 In preparing to land after an oxygen tank explosion aborts their trip to the moon, the crew of Apollo 13 intentionally ejects an RTG meant to be left on the lunar surface. The RTG hits the ocean over the Tonga Trench off the coast of New Zealand, where it remains under 20,000 ft. of water.

1978 When a Soviet ship-tracking satellite launched in 1977 fails to burn up on re-entry, radioactive parts scatter across 48,000 square miles of Canadian wilderness.

1982 Ground controllers break a crippled Soviet radar satellite into three parts. Its reactor sinks 1000 miles east of Brazil in 1983.


Now that President Bush has directed NASA to use nuclear power whenever possible, perhaps we'll have several more nuclear 'incidents' in the coming years. We may also have many more recent incidents that are simply out of the public view thanks to his 'need-to-know' policy regarding government records whose secret status would have otherwise expired by now.
Open Season on Consumer Protections is Just Around the Corner...
 
AirlineAV8tr
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:01 pm

Catapult launch a new 300 pax glider maybe? In all seriousness, new alternative fuels are advancing rapidly, and new fossil fuel deposits are being discovered. I think if we truly had only 37 years left to leave a smokey exhaust trail, there were be more of a panic amongst manufacturers.
If we went into the funeral business, people would stop dying.-Martin S. (PanAm CEO)
 
david b.
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:10 pm

Is there a way to extract oil from human sh*t?
Teenage-know-it-alls should be shot on sight
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:20 pm

Quoting David b. (Reply 29):
Is there a way to extract oil from human sh*t?

turd is basically nitrogen, which doesn't do anything in terms of oil/gas/petroleum, which is basically carbon and hyrdogen
"Up the Irons!"
 
VEEREF
Posts: 560
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:36 pm

Can you say "Mad Max"??  fight 
Airplanes are cool. Aviation sucks.
 
L-188
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 12:52 pm

Quoting CRJ705 (Reply 12):
I asked my professor in Chemistry about the subject of oil running out. He basically laughed at me and said that if our reserves of easy to get oil runs out, we can always reform other hydrocarbons (coal comes into mind) and we can extract oil from the oil sands in Alberta as well as the Oil Shales in Colorado (I think thats where it is, please forgive me if I am wrong). My professor also said that as we have come to say that we will run out of oil, more is being discovered. Besides, we have enough oil at current production rates to last us a while, and if oil does run out, no doubt we would come up with alternatives to oil or use existing technology and techniques, despeite their lower yields

Your professor was right to laugh.

In 5 years you are going to see E85 blends common in the US. The recent gas spike made those plants profitable, and we are in the design/construction phase for many of those plants...Brazil has made a comitment to go to 100% Ethanol fuel.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 21):
I was just watching "The Man With The Golden Gun" and the whole premise of that 70s film is that oil is running out and there is this new solar technology that is 95% efficient and would solve the "energy crisis." Neither of those things have come to pass 30 years later. Must be one long crisis...

Great film. One of these days I am going to build that pistol he uses.

Quoting Lhrmaccoll (Reply 22):
Biodiesel.

One of the easy answers, It is very simular to Kerosene, and probably only require minor changes in operational procedures to burn in Turbines-much like running 100LL in a DC-7

Quoting David b. (Reply 29):
Is there a way to extract oil from human sh*t?

Don't laugh, there are many parts of the world where even today, dired cow-pies are a major source of winter heat and cooking fuel.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
NWADC9
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:31 pm

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

I guarentee you that planes will most likely be obsolete by then...
I convert Jet A and 100LL into noise.
 
User avatar
malaysia
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:58 pm

The Glorious days will return..... no not Aviation

Nuclear planes are not a safe idea, but these can handle the operation easier and safer.





[Edited 2006-02-19 06:00:56]
There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
 
alaska737
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 2:25 pm

Quoting Tifoso (Reply 20):
One cool solution would be nuclear. I wonder if we can make it safe enough for aviation.

i can see the terrorists just rubbing their hands together....jk
 
flywithjohn
Posts: 116
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 3:31 pm

Well planes wil stop flyign for a little while. Until they figure out how to make moonshine fuel. "why waste good moonshine flying one of these shit box's" sparta 847 (pushing tin)
Always Blue Sky's.....
 
sstsomeday
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 4:04 pm

An alternative to oil (and the pollution it creates) could be ultra high speed trains I've heard about. I have read about transcontinental trains that could conceivably run in tunnels above and/or below the ground. The tunnels would have the air mostly removed (near vacuum) and so the trains would be able to travel (in theory) at thousand's of miles an hour. They would operate magnetically, run by electricity. Because they would be Earth-bound, they would not have to take their fuel supply with them.

New York to L.A. in an hour and a half without ever leaving the ground; City Center to City Center. That's HOT.
I come in peace
 
UA772IAD
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 5:51 pm

Quoting Seanp11 (Reply 3):
Biodiesel? It can be made from algae. Plus it would burn nicely in turbines.

Not only that, but from grease. If Biodiesel were to be used, think of the deals Fast Food corporations could make with petrolium companies, airlines, car manufacturers, etc. Keep eating McDonalds, America (and UK, Germany, Japan).

PS is it really going to be 37 years until we run out? Or is that an estimate? That should be a lovely 56th Birthday present.
 
L-188
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:02 pm

Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 38):
PS is it really going to be 37 years until we run out? Or is that an estimate? That should be a lovely 56th Birthday present.

No it isn't.

Any estimates usually are based on current technology for extraction, and don't allow for improvement in milage, efficencies in the use of fuels ect.

I think the Kapurak Oil field on the North Slope of Alaska would be a good example. It went on line in the early 1980's and was predicted to be good for 20 years of production and produce 2 billion of barrels over it's life. Well guess what, this past summer the 2 Billionth barrel of oil was pumped from that field, and is still a viable field, not even close to being shut down.

The difference is that technology has been developed since the field opened that makes it possible to get more oil out of the ground.

Oh and the other thing to consider is Nazi Germany. For the last three years of the war of so, Hitler's army ran not oil gasoline produce by oilfields, but by coal gasification from large facilities at first, and then ones located in caves and salt mines.

That is 60 year old technology, that probably could be updated to be much more efficent.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
satx
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:05 pm

Quoting L-188 (Reply 39):
Any estimates usually are based on current technology for extraction, and don't allow for improvement in milage, efficencies in the use of fuels ect.

Why would they? Here in the US the average vehicle on the road gets WORSE mileage than twenty years ago!
Open Season on Consumer Protections is Just Around the Corner...
 
Oftwftwoab
Posts: 42
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:19 pm

Oil is not going to run out in 37 years. We haven't even reached peak production yet, and there will be a long tail off.

These kind of figures are always given in terms of economically extracted resources, which disregards the fact that technology advances and that the price can go up!

Before we get anywhere near running out, the amount of supply will drop, and the price will therefore go up (increasing demand will have the same effect). This will incentivise people to look for oil-substitution. (They might not even have to look - lots of alternatives to oil are already known, they just aren't used because they cost more.) This will happen first where it is easiest and cheapest - so probably not for planes first. This reduces demand, and enables the supply to last longer, giving more time for technological advance etc.

We used to have oil-fired power stations. We don't now (except for a few old ones that are kept to meet the occasional peak demand). Ethanol is being substituted for gasoline - initially as a blend, but more and more in total (and you can use ethanol as jet fuel, with modifications to the engines). Oil is used because it's convenient and (currently) relatively cheap. But nowhere is it essential. The problem arises if there is a price or supply shock, giving insufficient time for industries and economies to adapt.

Another alternative is Hydrogen, or Methane as it's easier to store etc., and simple to produce given Hydrogen, which you get from electrolysing water. The entire current world demand for electricity can be met from solar cells covering 4% of the Earth's deserts. Further out, artificial photosynthesis will probably be cracked soon, so producing sugar and then ethanol etc.

It's possible that airline tickets may be more expensive than at present (although efficiencies elsewhere will take some of the strain), but may not be relative to people's incomes, which tend to increase in real terms - especially in places like India and China. The airline business may just not grow as quickly.
 
Morvious
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 6:30 pm

When I was a kid I heard the storys to..
Off course we are running short of oil one day, but predictions like 30-35 years is just to make fuel prices high, so the world leading fuel suppliers can make extra money out of it..

To bad though, it is ruing peoples lifes and aviation to  Sad!!
have a good day, Stefan van Hierden
 
Tifoso
Posts: 432
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:09 pm

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 37):
ultra high speed trains I've heard about.

They are called Maglev (Magnetic levitation) trains.
 
Oryx
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 8:23 pm

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 25):
Actually Biodiesel is not 100% clean. It has less carbon emmisions that lead to Global Warming etc. and will still pollute the atmosphere. It is still Diesel, just a different kind with less pollution and is extracted from plants.

The diesel itself is 100 percent clean as it is only burned what was taken out of the envirenment before. The only source of pullution is during the growth of the plants used for the production. There you have some emmisions of nitrogen from the furtilizer and some methane etc.

Quoting David b. (Reply 29):
Is there a way to extract oil from human sh*t?

Yes easily. What is done today is that you put any kind of biomass i.e. corn, sugar, wood, grass, cow-shit, parts of the waste from households etc. into a fermenter and let it degrade. The resulting gases (mostly metane) are dehydrated and transformed into longer chain carbohydrates = diesel. Putting an additional shovel of shit into the fermenter doesn't change anything.

[Edited 2006-02-19 12:27:08]
 
hmmmm...
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:27 pm

It doesn't cost a barrel of oil to get a barrel of oil from the oil sands. Alberta is currently producing oil from the sands and getting rich off it. They are on the cusp of becoming the next Saudia Arabia all because the world price of oil now sustains the exploitation of the oil sands.

By the time we run out of fossil fuels, combustion engines will be long obsolete.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
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tjwgrr
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:33 pm

I for one am glad we're going to run out of oil- finally an end to those nasty chemtrails..... I'll sleep better now.
Direct KNOBS, maintain 2700' until established on the localizer, cleared ILS runway 26 left approach.
 
hmmmm...
Posts: 1959
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 8:32 am

RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 9:35 pm

As far as using shit to make fuel, yes, that is becoming an industry:

In China, for example, some five million households are equipped with biogas digesters. The digesters work much the same way as AFR's process does, breaking down the poop in an anaerobic environment. Biodigesting tanks beneath Chinese outhouses and hog wallows collect waste and break it down. Gas bubbles up from the slop into a plastic tube that runs directly into the kitchen where it is linked to heating devices.

But is it efficient? Well, according to The Edmonton Sun, a Chinese family of four with four pigs can produce enough gas for all their cooking, lighting and water heating needs. One would think that if the family and their porcine friends were to get enough legumes in their diet they might even be able to fire up the hot tub.

In the U.K., the Financial Times reported that some select southern Englishmen will soon find their houses powered by their local sewage treatment plants. Scottish Power (you knew it would be the Scots) will soon be turning the shite of 2.5 million English into methane gas and solid fertilizer to spread on crops. The process will power the sewage plants themselves and provide enough excess juice to light up an additional 5,000 homes. And you thought they smelled bad now.

But not all of the exciting advances in crapology are taking place across our borders. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is working on their own biogas generator in Memphis, or so said the Southeast Power Report. The TVA will burn biogas from an adjacent sewage treatment plant starting next summer. (Here's the part of the story where you get to make your own joke about rednecks, dung, and the ghost of Elvis Presley.)
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
sllevin
Posts: 3312
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 1:57 pm

RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:14 pm

I figured we'd just use all the hot air from a.net to power aircraft...  Smile

Steve
 
idlewild
Posts: 101
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RE: What Will Planes Fly On Once Oil Runs Out?

Sun Feb 19, 2006 10:20 pm

I have seen the suture of alternative fuels. It is called "Soylent Green".....

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