leelaw
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Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Fri Feb 24, 2006 9:56 pm

Boeing is adamant that this year it will gain the first orders for its 747-8 passenger aircraft but is unwilling to predict whether it will be in the first or second half.

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...ssenger+747-8+order+this+year.html
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atnight
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:21 pm

I will be watching to see how jumps into this airplane first.... In my opinion, the airline that selects this type will do it in the 4th quarter of the year if the order does come through... I still believe that unless is a carrier who absolutely doesn't want the A380 or Airbus, most carriers will wait until next year to make their decision as to which large aircraft to get, only after SQ's A380s start to show numbers... Time will tell I guess...
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rjpieces
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:25 pm

My guess would be an Asian carrier: CX, NH, or JL.
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aa1818
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Fri Feb 24, 2006 11:15 pm

I'm guessing CX or NH- JL won't be ordering much for a while. They need to sort out their problems first. I think JL is likely in the future though- perhaps '08 and beyond. BA seems likely as well in that time frame- and to be honest, I don't see BA buying the A380. Qantas could also be a potential especially if they don't order the 773ER. My money's on CX though or a Chinese Airline!

AA1818
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boeingfan71
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Fri Feb 24, 2006 11:32 pm

i think the first to get it will be definetley JL or BA seeing that they are huge 747 operators already. Cheers, drake f.
 
kappel
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Fri Feb 24, 2006 11:43 pm

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 3):
JL is likely in the future though-

With JL's current problems, NH would be more likely, but they are moving towards smaller aircraft (773). BA won't order anything soon, but they are a possiblilty. CX just made a big order and s did QF. I also doubt it will be an airline who has the a380 on order (personal opinion, while it's still a big gap between the 748 and a388 I think airlines will stick with one VLJ).
Perhaps Asiana? They recently stated they wanted to replace their 744's. Granted, the report said they were condidering the a380, but that seems too big for them.
Another possibility would be CI, together with the replacement for the a343, an order for the 748 (789/78-10 with a 748 order?)
Or even most logical would be GECAS, perhaps ILFC, but seeing the engine choice I'd say GECAS.
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CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Fri Feb 24, 2006 11:47 pm

Eva Air? Thats not a bad guess i'd say.
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flyinghippo
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 1:22 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):
Eva Air? Thats not a bad guess i'd say.

Nope... BR is replacing their 744s with 773ERs. 773ER will be the biggest plane in their fleet in the future.

NH is the same, going with 773ER as their flagship type. I think CX will eventually go with A380 now they have ordered the 773ER, the gap between 773ER and 748I is too small, IMO.

I'd put my bet on BA or CI, with UA being the WILD card.

[Edited 2006-02-24 17:25:19]
 
FLALEFTY
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:29 am

I'm willing to bet that JL will be offered a package deal of freighters and passenger versions of the 747-8 by Boeing. JL's fleet of 747-200 cargo jets are getting tired and they could use a size and efficiency upgrade over the passenger 747-400s on their Trans Pacific routes.

The deal might include taking JL's older 747-400s in trade for conversion and remarketing as freighters.
 
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:32 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 8):
I'm willing to bet that JL will be offered a package deal of freighters and passenger versions of the 747-8 by Boeing. JL's fleet of 747-200 cargo jets are getting tired and they could use a size and efficiency upgrade over the passenger 747-400s on their Trans Pacific routes.

The deal might include taking JL's older 747-400s in trade for conversion and remarketing as freighters.

That would be the logical move by JL and Boeing, however, given JL's situation, I'm not sure if they'd go for such an investment... But, if JL is able to turn itself around within the next 2-4 years, I do expect JL ordering a few 748s in pax and F versions.
 
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 3:25 am

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 9):
But, if JL is able to turn itself around within the next 2-4 years

JL has always been one of Boeing's glamour customers. To get the PAX version of the 747-8 into service, they may give JL very generous terms - such as back-loaded financing and/or leasing terms.
 
Ken777
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 3:34 am

I tend to believe that JL will be one of the first to order. The package deal will be attractive to them, but the delivery schedule will be even more important - the planes will come when JL thinks it will be ready to take them, not this year.

For other carriers I believe that the 748i will be a replacement aircraft and will be ordered as needed. This is a lot different than a new plane, such as the 787 or 380 where there was an initial rush. Boeing will, however, be making the 748i very attractive to the initial buyers so anyone who is currently successful with the 744 can be added to the list of potential buyers.
 
leothedog
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:10 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Boeing is adamant that this year it will gain the first orders for its 747-8 passenger aircraft but is unwilling to predict whether it will be in the first or second half.

Boeing really needs to be careful with the bold predictions.
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jacobin777
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:19 am

Quoting Leothedog (Reply 12):
Boeing really needs to be careful with the bold predictions.

maybe Boeing knows something which we don't. Smile
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reyes27
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:22 am

Quoting Leothedog (Reply 12):
Boeing really needs to be careful with the bold predictions.

hahahaha, can't get much bolder predicting that a plane will be ordered
 
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ER757
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 11:25 am

Quoting Kappel (Reply 5):
Perhaps Asiana? They recently stated they wanted to replace their 744's. Granted, the report said they were condidering the a380, but that seems too big for them.
Another possibility would be CI,

I'd say one of these two is a very good bet. I'd throw CX in there too.
 
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LTU932
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 11:54 am

My money is on either CX or BA ordering the first 747-8I, with LH as a potential customer.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 12:15 pm

It very well could be UA and LH ordering first. LH is looking at the B-747-800 and also wants to order additional A-380-800s, or will at least exercise it's 5 options for the Whale-Jet. UA will need to start replacing their older B-747-400s, and I believe all of the B-747-200s are retired now. They need to keep their international routes up, and they will need newer airplanes to do that.

A JL B-747-800I/F deal looks interesting, and it might just happen.

But, I really see QF as one of the launch customers. I laso don't think that NZ is completely out of the VLA business, even though they seem to like the B-777.

BA will begin ordering the B-747-800 in late 2007 or 2008 for 2012 delieveries. That will put their oldest B-747-400s about 22 years old, if not older.

I can also see a big NW order for the B-747-800 in 2008, if they can survive bankruptcy.

Now, here is the surprize of all. If Boeing starts selling substantial numbers of B-747-800I/Fs, I look to see Airbus developing a 425-475 seat version of the Whale-Jet, perhaps calling it the A-380-600 or -700. It will offer more range than the A-380-800/900, but will have a shorter, squarter fuselarge (maybe as much as 30' {9m} shorter, but using the same wing and engines as the -800 does).
 
jacobin777
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 1:37 pm

here is something of interest.......

would love to see QF purchase some 747-8's.....but would REALLY love to see QF purchase some 777's instead (which probably won't happen)

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=4129

"Turning to the 747-8 launched last fall, Mooney said that at a fuel price of $1.50 a gallon the aircraft would have a $2.1 million a year savings over a 747-400 and savings would jump to $2.8 million if fuel hit $2.00 a gallon.

VP-Marketing Randy Baseler told ATWOnline that Boeing has active campaigns with 20 airlines for the 747-8. While he would not name them, Singapore Airlines and Qantas are believed to be high on the agenda, and sources at Qantas told this website that the carrier is "impressed" with the aircraft. Baseler believes the airframer will land two customers for the 747-8 Intercontinental this year.
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DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 1:55 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
I look to see Airbus developing a 425-475 seat version of the Whale-Jet, perhaps calling it the A-380-600 or -700

Very, very unlikely.

The A380-800 was built more in terms of Boeing philosophy than typical Airbus cannon. The A388 was "over-engineered" to allow for uncomplicated stretch and MTOW boost down the line.

This is analogus to how Boeing builds a model up from it's introductory variant (772A, 762A) while Boeing shrinks either perform lacklusterly or never leave the drawing board (771, 751, 736). Airbus typically starts at the absolute top, and works their way down. This is why Airbus shrinks typically perform better than Boeing shrinks (A332, A319), but Airbus stretch aircraft struggle (A345, A346).

Back to the A388, the A388 is over 100,000 lbs heavier than the 748I. Removing two 2-meter fuselage barrels probably wouldn't change things much, the 747-8I would slaughter an Airbus shrink. The 748I is already targeting seat/mile cost equal or better than the larger A388. Boeing also has more advanced propulsion at their disposal, so retaining A388 engines for commonality would maintain Boeing's edge.

There's also a matter of resources, and Airbus can't get bogged down in too many projects that promise questionable returns.

Quoting Leothedog (Reply 12):
Boeing really needs to be careful with the bold predictions.

That's hardly a "bold prediction." If Boeing didn't recieve another 747-8 order in 2006 they wouldn't need their prediction going sour to look like fools.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:00 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
I can also see a big NW order for the B-747-800 in 2008, if they can survive bankruptcy

I don't really see this happening. Once the 744's are retired, I doubt they'll be repalced with more 747's. The 400's are the end of the line for the 747 at NW.
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dutchjet
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:09 pm

I do think that we will see orders for the pax version of the 748 during 2006 from several major carriers - my guess continues to be CX as the first customer with a Chinese carrier to follow. Its also likely that we will see the 748 in BA and JL colors....I think its more a question of when the order will be placed, not if these airlines will go with the 748. Boeing waited a long time to launch the 747NG, and it only made that decision once it was convinced that the 748 would sell in reasonable numbers - every pax and cargo 747 operator world wide is a potential 748 customer and there is place for an aircraft that is bigger than the 773/A346 yet smaller than the A380......the big question is whether airlines will find it cost effective to fly an aircraft in the 773/A346 class, and the 748, and the A380???? Or, will airlines basically select two out of the three for fleet rationalization purposes....this is the big issue that Boeing has to work on: can Boeing convince SQ that it makes sense to fly the 773/773ER plus the 748 plus the A388, and can Boeing make a case over at LH that the A346 plus 748 plus A388 is the ideal large capacity lineup?

It will be interesting to see if the larger carriers think of the 748 and A380 as competitors or as the winning combination in the high-capacity battle.
 
astuteman
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 5:22 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 19):
Back to the A388, the A388 is over 100,000 lbs heavier than the 748I. Removing two 2-meter fuselage barrels probably wouldn't change things much, the 747-8I would slaughter an Airbus shrink.

For me, it's becoming increasingly obvious that the next versions of the A380 will not only be much higher MTOW than the 388, but also feature a fair amount of weight reduction via more advanced alloys, and also much improved engines. Airbus needs to make the most of the massive wings potential to get the best performance, and turn the weight from a disadvantage into an advantage.
Airbus have already said they're investigating a 9 750 mile range A380R (8750 Nm with full payload), based on the A388.

With that in mind I don't think an A387 will ever appear.
If the argument supporting an A387 development is that it will be an enhanced, top weight model, capable of flying FULL PAYLOADS from SYD-LHR all year round, this aircraft would never be a competitor to the 747-8 - it would be a completely different class.

(Off topic, for the above reasons, I suspect that, if and when the A389 ever gets launched, it will sport a significant range advantage over the current A388, despite the stretch and 650 pax (8500 - 8750Nm is my guess)).
A
 
leothedog
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 5:32 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 19):
That's hardly a "bold prediction." If Boeing didn't recieve another 747-8 order in 2006 they wouldn't need their prediction going sour to look like fools.

Huh? What does that mean? You obviously didn't turn on your "Sarcastic Meter" to pick up on what I was saying.

Yes. Boeing will recieve at least one order for the 747-8 this year. Who knows when or by who (although there are lots of a-netters who think they know, and that's cool).

My point is to simply state there will be at least one order, sometime during 2006, for the passenger version, and that's about the same thing as to saying that sometime during this year someone will purchase a new Hummer. i.e. It's gunna happen. We just don't know by who or when.
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georgiabill
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 5:40 pm

Personaly I think you will see more 748F'S before you will see any 748's passenfer aircraft.
 
mrcomet
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 6:11 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 21):
the big question is whether airlines will find it cost effective to fly an aircraft in the 773/A346 class, and the 748, and the A380????

This is a very good point. I doubt too many carriers that have invested in the A380 will buy the 748. Even though they serve two different market segments, the segments are not big. The tradeoffs are such that either aircraft can serve your purposes and some level of inefficiency will be acceptable.

I doubt the A380 will ever stretch too much more because that market segment is just too small. The A380 only works if it is full. Anything less than full starts to become a cost liability very quickly with all that weight and engines. How many markets have 1,000 passengers consistently willing to travel at ONE time on ONE airline REGARDLESS of season AND can handle the A380? Some but not too many. It's also not a great heavy cargo aircraft so I doubt a stretched freighter will sell except to the package companies (which is still a decent niche market).

I think the A380 is perfectly sized now. It'll dominate the big hub market for years to come. Some airlines will go the 777 or 748 route instead using multiple flights to make up capacity especially airlines with more seasonal routes. I will be surpised if anyone except maybe the largest airlines order all three.

I predict CX, BA, JL and many of the American airlines that haven't committed will consider the 748 and some will order. I doubt LH or the other A380 customers will consider it. Despite being a rabid Airbus customer, I predict IB will order the 748.
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flywithjohn
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 9:40 pm

Be geat if it was one of American Legacy carriers....
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kappel
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 10:30 pm

Quoting MrComet (Reply 25):
Anything less than full starts to become a cost liability very quickly with all that weight and engines. How many markets have 1,000 passengers consistently willing to travel at ONE time on ONE airline REGARDLESS of season AND can handle the A380?

I doubt the a389 will handle anything close to 1000 pax in a real airline config, I'd say max 700, with the exeption of a high density version like EK is proposing on some of their a380's. And then still I'd say it's be about 800. Still a huge number no doubt, but not 1000.

And if Boeing does not get a 748I order this year, it would be terrible for them, but I doubt they will let that happen.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 15):
I'd throw CX in there too.

Since CX allready made a huge order last year i doubt they will make another this year. CI have indicated they are looking to order, so I'd wager on them.
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WINGS
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 11:27 pm

Quoting Flywithjohn (Reply 26):
Be geat if it was one of American Legacy carriers....

I highly doubt it. Northwest would be a prime candidate for the B747-8, that is if they actually had the cash.

Regards,
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BestWestern
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sat Feb 25, 2006 11:36 pm

I cant see IB going for the 748 - the sole routes needing this capacity are to and from the canaries TFS/TFN ex Madrid. With Madrid now less slot constrained, I'm expecting to see a significant ramp up in competition on these routes - eliminating the need for 747s, and making the route more suited to high density 321's
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TinkerBelle
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sun Feb 26, 2006 12:02 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Boeing is adamant that this year it will gain the first orders for its 747-8 passenger aircraft

Gee, what a surprise?  boggled . Well, they better have an order this year otherwise what was the point of launching the damn thing if nobody orders it in the first 2 calendar years?
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Yea

Sun Feb 26, 2006 12:58 am

I think Boeing will get a few orders, and I wouldn't be surprised to see if PK orders a few.........

while PK are getting some 773's to probably replace their ancient 742's and 743's, they do have some routes where they need a 744, and thats where the 748 would perfectly suit their needs..

Walsh of BA has been or record stating that at best, they'll need 12 or so A380's....

Given that BA has 57 744's in their fleet, even a combination of A380s and 773's would fit the bill........but the 748 would, and it would go along BA's line of incremental capacity increase
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AvObserver
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RE: Boeing Predicts Passenger 747-8 Order This Year

Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:06 am

Quoting Reyes27 (Reply 14):
hahahaha, can't get much bolder predicting that a plane will be ordered

BOTH Boeing and Airbus do this.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 17):
Now, here is the surprize of all. If Boeing starts selling substantial numbers of B-747-800I/Fs, I look to see Airbus developing a 425-475 seat version of the Whale-Jet, perhaps calling it the A-380-600 or -700. It will offer more range than the A-380-800/900, but will have a shorter, squarter fuselarge (maybe as much as 30' {9m} shorter, but using the same wing and engines as the -800 does).

DfwRevolution and Astuteman beat me to the punch in responding to this; they've said it all. Although Airbus has proposed the A380-700, even it admits there's been very little interest in it; far more airlines would look at the -900 stretch. A -700 shrink would fly significantly farther than a 747-8I (NOT 747-800!) but with only a slightly greater passenger count and would be much heavier, even after much weight reduction from the baseline aircraft. I think the 747-8I can indeed land at least one order this year while the -8F freighter will likely land several. While it doesn't surprise me the demand ratio for the 747-8F vs. the -8I passenger version looks to be notably higher than that of the A380-800 vs. the -800F, I still think demand for the new 747 passenger variant will be reasonably good. The upgraded 747 is the most responsible response to the A380 Boeing could make right now as there won't be room in the market for another superjumbo for many years, yet. While Airbus publicly dismisses the passenger version as not credible, I think they privately worry it could partly undermine the low end of A380 business, particularly for the -800F. While the 747-8 is dated in comparison, its new upgrades keep it efficient enough to nail down a tidy niche Airbus can't truly address with the bigger A388.

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