nwab787techops
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Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 7:51 am

Where is WN going in the next 5 to 10 years? There is no more old Usair to eat, empl pay is going up,gas is going up,and there are new airlines out there like jetblue and other that are better LCC then WN.

Soon, they will loose money and they will ask there emp to give back, then they will loose more money then they will ask for more and more and more. At that time WN will look a little like NW today. Oh, without a "NRT HUB", sorry.
They don't fly out side the us and they only have one A/C.
 
nateDAL
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 7:54 am

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
Soon, they will loose money and they will ask there emp to give back, then they will loose more money then they will ask for more and more and more. At that time WN will look a little like NW today.

Not a chance in hell.
Set Love Free
 
Tango-Bravo
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:06 am

Sounds more like the rant of a member of the "We Hate Southwest Club" than a question soliciting opinions of where Southwest is going in the next 5-10 years as implied by the title topic. End of reply.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:17 am

Quoting NateDAL (Reply 1):
Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
Soon, they will loose money and they will ask there emp to give back, then they will loose more money then they will ask for more and more and more. At that time WN will look a little like NW today.

Not a chance in hell.

I agree.

In 5-10 years, we will see WN switch airplane types, from the B-737NG to the Boeing Y-1, as the launch customer, as well as operating the B-787-800/900 on international routes. WN will be the largest airline in the country, they will absorb TZ, making it their international and military charter division.

WN will be flying unrestricted from DAL, but will relocate the company HQ to PHX. US, F9, and JB will all have gone out of business, and Air Tran will be WN's major competitor in the LCC market.

With US, F9, and JB all gone, WN will expand their flights from DEN, PHX, CLT, and LGA. They will move into airports they traditionally stayed away from, like BOS and SFO.

But, having won the battle over the Wright Amandment (at a huge costs), they will still not operate from DFW, except for the TZ military charters and the international flights TZ flys from there (but not operating at the very expensive Terminal D, these flights will be from Terminal E).
 
isitsafenow
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:28 am

Where is Southwest going in the next 5 to 10 years?
I would say the same way they are...headed for a powerhouse in transportation.
I read today they are to receive 32 new planes in 2006. That improves the old average from a new plane every 3 1/2 weeks to a new plane every every 11 to 12 days. You can do alot with 32 new planes....cities, routes, market share improvement. They will be a surviver...of course I said that about money rich Northwest Airlines in the mid-ninties, too.
safe  slaphappy 
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mariner
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:37 am

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 2):
the rant of a member of the "We Hate Southwest Club"

That sounds a tad paranoid. Especially in view of statements like:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
With US, F9, and JB all gone, WN will expand their flights from DEN, PHX, CLT, and LGA.

Perhaps we don't all want to be assimilated.  Smile

cheers

mariner
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squirrel83
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:41 am

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
Where is WN going in the next 5 to 10 years? There is no more old Usair to eat, empl pay is going up,gas is going up,and there are new airlines out there like jetblue and other that are better LCC then WN.

Mexico and Canada . . . ? What are the chances?
A346, 7E7, 747, 777, Sonic Cruiser
 
northwestair
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:50 am

I think that WN is already looking at the Employee Pay, but I believe that they have no defined Pension Plan so that is a huge cost savings for WN. It also seems that their Union has a better head on their shoulders than the other unions at the Legacy Carriers. WN will most likely feel a little bit of pain if fuel starts to rise, but it seems that they did a good job up to this point. I don't see WN going to either Canada or Mexico just because of the added Cost of those flights.
I don't care who you fly just as long as you fly
 
SonOfACaptain
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 8:52 am

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 2):
Sounds more like the rant of a member of the "We Hate Southwest Club" than a question soliciting opinions of where Southwest is going in the next 5-10 years as implied by the title topic. End of reply.

These replies sound more like the rant of memebers of the "We Love Southwest Club" who can't even think about anything negative about WN. Like it or not, WN is going to lose money sometime, and it might be sooner than a lot of people expect.

Atleast his examples are some what legit, unlike yours.

Quoting NateDAL (Reply 1):
Not a chance in hell.

Sure, just like there was no chance the 4 of the legacy carriers would be in bankruptcy at the same time. Don't be in denial, WN will lose money sometime.

-SOAC
Non Illegitimi Carborundum
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:01 am

Quoting Squirrel83 (Reply 6):
Mexico and Canada . . . ? What are the chances?

Iffy... There are growth opportunities in the U.S. that could sustain WN's growth for the next 5-10 years. Remember that WN is still building MDW, rebuilding MSY, and still is growing newer cities like PHL, PIT, and DEN. WN will also continue connecting points within their system.

If anything, WN will be constrained by Boeing's manufacturing capacity in the next 5 years. WN typically maintains conservative, consistant growth around 8% per year. Early 733 will begin hitting retirement age and WN will likely replace them with 73G to keep fleet fuel consumption down. WN will also be an early Y1 adopter when the time comes.

The question of nternational flights will linger for some time. I personally wonder if WN would look at smaller fleet types to exploit more domestic opportunites before going international?

It really comes down to cost/benefit, and WN has pleanty of opportunity left before changing their biz model.

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
gas is going up,

WN is sufficently hedged through 2009.

Meanwhile, WN has greatly reduced their non-fuel cost since 2001 via productivy boost and more efficent asset utilization.

WN has also taken steps to reduce fuel consumption: installing AVP Blended Winglets, implementing direct routings, and considering early(er) 733 replacement.

If worse comes to worse and WN will pay market rates just like everyone else. In this regard, they have a tremendous cussion to break their fall: they've been profitable while no one else hasn't with over $2 billion in cash/credit options and $11 billion in market cap. Fuel will not sink WN.

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 4):
I would say the same way they are...headed for a powerhouse in transportation.

 checkmark 
 
skibum9
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:10 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 9):
WN is sufficently hedged through 2009.

Meanwhile, WN has greatly reduced their non-fuel cost since 2001 via productivy boost and more efficent asset utilization.

WN has also taken steps to reduce fuel consumption: installing AVP Blended Winglets, implementing direct routings, and considering early(er) 733 replacement.

If worse comes to worse and WN will pay market rates just like everyone else. In this regard, they have a tremendous cussion to break their fall: they've been profitable while no one else hasn't with over $2 billion in cash/credit options and $11 billion in market cap. Fuel will not sink WN.

Not everyone agrees with your optimistic opinion. The following is a recent quote from Michael Boyd....

"But the real news is Southwest. True, it reported a profit for the last quarter, but it was predicated entirely on the fuel-hedge cost advantage it currently enjoys. Take that away, and the Southwest Model - as it's currently structured, and within the current pricing environment - doesn't make money.

In fact, if Southwest was paying all-up for fuel, as is most of its competitors, it would have lost in the neighborhood of around $90 million last quarter. Worse, its all-up ASM costs would have been well over nine cents. Hardly what would be considered as low cost.

Needless to say, Southwest is well aware of this, and it's a lead-pipe cinch they're moving to fix things. So plan on some very un-Southwest changes in the months ahead. They will also almost certainly loosen up on fare increases - where they can. This was covered a couple weeks ago. (Go There)"

Source: http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm
Tailwinds!!!
 
nateDAL
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:11 am

Quoting SonOfACaptain (Reply 8):

Sure, just like there was no chance the 4 of the legacy carriers would be in bankruptcy at the same time. Don't be in denial, WN will lose money sometime.

Though they haven't posted a loss since 1972, I never said they would never lose money in the future.

I do stand by my statement that there is not a chance in hell that WN will resemble the basketcase that is NW within the next 10 years.
Set Love Free
 
steeler83
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:12 am

Quoting SonOfACaptain (Reply 8):
WN will lose money sometime.

I agree. Even the strongest of companies have to take a hit every now and then. I highly doubt that they will wind up like NW or DL and in bankrupcy.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
US, F9, and JB will all have gone out of business

Don't be so sure of this either. US is expected to turn a profit this year for the first time in years. One major reason why US experienced a loss this year was because of merger costs when they merged with HP in September. Even with that, the loss was smaller than projected. They have good management now and I think they'll be around for a while.
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
sstsomeday
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:16 am

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
Where is WN going in the next 5 to 10 years?



Quoting Squirrel83 (Reply 6):
Mexico and Canada . . . ? What are the chances?

I hope Canada, and sooner than later. I'm tired of paying three times the price of WN on similar distances to fly there (i'm in L.A.). I would accept a slightly more expensive fare, covering the logistical costs of trans-border travel, but the difference in airfare these days is unjustified.

Why does Easyjet, Ryanair and others have no trouble flying the LLC model across borders with LOW airfares?
I come in peace
 
SonOfACaptain
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:17 am

Quoting NateDAL (Reply 11):
I do stand by my statement that there is not a chance in hell that WN will resemble the basketcase that is NW within the next 10 years.

Oh, well, if that was what you were talking about, then nevermind. No way that is going to happen.

-SOAC
Non Illegitimi Carborundum
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:17 am

Quoting Skibum9 (Reply 10):
Take that away, and the Southwest Model - as it's currently structured, and within the current pricing environment - doesn't make money.

Very well may be true. But WN is hedged, so speculation as to how WN would fare if they weren't isn't worth a fool.

Quoting Skibum9 (Reply 10):
In fact, if Southwest was paying all-up for fuel, as is most of its competitors, it would have lost in the neighborhood of around $90 million last quarter.

WN still would have lost less than any airline of its size and still have more reserve cash than anyone else. In a nutshell, every quarter WN continues to remain profitable gives them that much more protection from a quarter they post a loss. One or two quarters of loss would be a drop in the pond considering the extent of WN's financial stability.

Mike Boyd and I are on the exact same page, it's just a matter of half-full versus half-empty. In any event, Nwab's mindless speculation is just thick-headed.
 
ssides
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:17 am

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 2):
Sounds more like the rant of a member of the "We Hate Southwest Club" than a question soliciting opinions of where Southwest is going in the next 5-10 years as implied by the title topic. End of reply.

Right. And, anyone notice how just about all of the WN-haters here can't spell?
"Lose" is not spelled with two o's!!!!
 
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mariner
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:21 am

Quoting Ssides (Reply 16):
And, anyone notice how just about all of the WN-haters here can't spell?

Oh, that's sweet!

"Fly Southwest for Better Spelling!"

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
steeler83
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:41 am

Quoting Ssides (Reply 16):
Right. And, anyone notice how just about all of the WN-haters here can't spell?

I wonder if this could reflect the validity, or lack thereof, of some of their posts...

Quoting Mariner (Reply 17):
Oh, that's sweet!

"Fly Southwest for Better Spelling!"

Very well stated!  bigthumbsup 
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
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aloha73g
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:49 am

As far as employee pay goes, Southwest can afford to pay their employees ALOT more than anyone else because they get alot more from their employees.

Southwest has about 75 employees per aircraft
JetBlue has about 96 employees per aircraft
American has about 130 employees per aircraft

Basically, Southwest's employees 'produce' alot more than American's, so Southwest can pay their employees alot more than American before they end up in a similar financial situation. Also note that Southwest is famous for finding ways to increase employee productivity and I don't see that ending any time soon.

-Aloha!
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STT757
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:55 am

Here's my take:

WN will be in the following Cities in the next 5-10 years.

Atlanta, Minneapolis, and NYC (EWR, LGA or JFK).
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
boeingbus
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:01 am

Hahaha... WN lose money... I dont think so... They are currently dominate the industry and drove the legacies to bankruptcy... it there any indications that profit will be sacrificed in any way due to increased fuel costs... all they have to do is raise tciket prices a few bucks... I flew WN from PVD to SAN for 225 bucks... and I would be just as happy paying 250.

They are not going to lose money. If anything, the industry as a whole will gain when WN has a fuel like everyone else... 2009 cant come soon enough... Sorry, but this advantage is hurting the aviation industry here in the states.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
Tbird
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:02 am

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
Where is WN going in the next 5 to 10 years? There is no more old Usair to eat, empl pay is going up,gas is going up,and there are new airlines out there like jetblue and other that are better LCC then WN.

Soon, they will loose money and they will ask there emp to give back, then they will loose more money then they will ask for more and more and more. At that time WN will look a little like NW today. Oh, without a "NRT HUB", sorry.
They don't fly out side the us and they only have one A/C.

I have one question for you.... Where are your facts? Have you read forward statements or researched anything that would even remotely backup your facts? Or are you just making up your own hypothesis on empty knowledge? I kind of think your grabbing at air.

WN has reacted time and time again to the shifting market forces that have taken place over the last few years. A stable airline industry will be godsend to WN's business plan and allow them to continue to make huge strides in maintaining a healthy profit.

Also who is to say WN has to remain what they are today? Who would have ever thought they'd ever codeshare with anyone? Well they’re doing it and it’s going very well for both airlines. So well that infact ATA has been using 752s almost every week at LGA to meet the needs of their LGA ops. If WN can bring affordable air travel to international destination like Mexico and Canada through their ATA codeshare or with their own planes then they might just go ahead and do that.

Far to often on this site there are members who predict doom and gloom when an airline decides to change its focus. It’s called business, and to stay ahead of the game you have to be prepared.
 
nwab787techops
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:08 am

Quoting Aloha73G (Reply 19):
Basically, Southwest's employees 'produce' alot more than American's, so Southwest can pay their employees alot more than American before they end up in a similar financial situation. Also note that Southwest is famous for finding ways to increase employee productivity and I don't see that ending any time soon.

Right,

AMR dosen't feel like finding ways to increase employee productivity.
 
lehpron
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:24 am

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Maybe the same place(s) they have been in the past 5-10 years?  Wink

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 2):
Sounds more like the rant of a member of the "We Hate Southwest Club"

I didn't get that at all. The poster did make assumptions by sayinig:

Quoting Nwab787techops (Thread starter):
Soon, they will loose money

...and didn't ask any questions. While it may have been a rant, I do not think it was a hate thread. If you don't like his/her statements, say so, do not insist you know what the poster's intentions were without asking them.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
skyharborshome
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:32 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
WN will be flying unrestricted from DAL, but will relocate the company HQ to PHX.

Know the rumor mill has been going for a while, but this article came out yesterday regarding Phoenix and WN.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepu...ness/articles/0225southwest25.html

I wonder when and if we will see this happen. Personally, I think they are loyal to DAL and would be very reluctant to move. However, I have been wrong before and actually hope I am wrong this time.
Fly CHD!
 
sccutler
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:41 am

Re: Originating post.

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

===

A post as sublimely ridiculous as the thread-starter cannot possibly be taken seriously; it reeks of troll.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
usairways85
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:46 am

Honestly we can speculate all we want, but no one has any idea what will happen with WN or the entire aviation industry in 5-10 years.

Just look back at the last 5 years:
people speculated UA and US would merge...that fell through
people speculated US would go under...turns out they went through bk twice and now merged with HP
who would have thought DL and NW would eventually file for bk

I can understand speculating what WN will do in the next year but to be honest 5-10 years no one not even the WN CEO could give you a concise answer.

So many things can happen that change everything and lead to things that we never even thought of. No one predicted WN would enter PHL and now almost 2 years later they are operating 60 flts a day.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:53 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
as well as operating the B-787-800/900 on international routes.

Yeah, right.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 15):

Very well may be true. But WN is hedged, so speculation as to how WN would fare if they weren't isn't worth a fool.

Umm, you do realize that those hedges are decreasing incrementally from this moment onward to 2009, when they're gone, right? Southwest will be significantly less hedged in 06 than they were in '05, while fuel will be significantly higher (for the whole year) in '06 than in '05. I could see WN losing profitability within the next 12 months.
 
mtnwest1979
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:07 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 21):
... I flew WN from PVD to SAN for 225 bucks... and I would be just as happy paying 250.

And just for you, your next fare will be $25 higher, thank you.  Wink
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"
 
iowaman
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:28 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 28):
I could see WN losing profitability within the next 12 months.

Hahahaha, wow. There hedges aren't going down that quickly, and if I remember correctly profits keep going up.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 9):
Meanwhile, WN has greatly reduced their non-fuel cost since 2001 via productivy boost and more efficent asset utilization.

WN has also taken steps to reduce fuel consumption: installing AVP Blended Winglets, implementing direct routings, and considering early(er) 733 replacement.

Definitely, they also has installed the life vests to save on fuel so they can go farther off the coast. There load factor keeps going up too, which helps as there are more paying passengers on the plane, even though the more passengers they do use somewhat more fuel. I don't see WN loosing any money for a loooong time to come.
 
altairF28
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:47 am

Silly altairF28. When I saw the title of this thread I thought "WN is probably the only airline that wouldn't have at least one smart*** answering this question with the words "Chapter 11"
A detour is a choice between two tasks, each with its own pros and cons
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:02 pm

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 28):
Umm, you do realize that those hedges are decreasing incrementally from this moment onward to 2009, when they're gone, right?

(1) How hedged are their competitors? In terms of relative competition, WN has life by the balls for the next five years (the low end of the given time frame).

(2) Even in 2009, WN still has 25% at/below $35 a barrel. Exposure to 75% of market price is dramatic compared to 2004 and 2005, but their competition is exposed to 100%.

(3) WN has already taken steps to prepare for market rate fuel. Compared to 2002, they are burning millions of gallons less per year just because of the AVP Winglets. They are retiring the first 733 in 2008. They began over-water routings last month. They didn't rush into IFE which saves millions of gallons of fuel and aircraft down time.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 28):
I could see WN losing profitability within the next 12 months.

For the year 2006? You may be interested to know WN is targeting a 15% earnings increase for 2006.

WN may perhaps suffer a quarterly loss after 2006 if fuel takes another spike to stratosphereic levels like it did in Q3 2005. An annual loss in the timeframe in question isn't likely without drastic and totally unforseable events in the world. Another 9/11, Iran nuking Israel, North Korea marching on Seoul. In other words, doomsday scenarios.

It's totally possible that something of that nature could happen. But by the time LUV were squeezed into a UA or DL position, they wouldn't have much company in the U.S. domestic market.

You act as if WN are at the edge of a pier with concrete shoes and that a single drop of water will suffocate them. WN has a market cap of $11 billion, more than all other U.S. airlines combine. They have more cash options than any airline in the U.S.

You can only draw three conclusions:

(1) LUV is a sound investment for the years specified
(2) LUV will continue growing at a conservative 8% per year (the fun question being, where will they grow?)
(3) LUV faces no threat of bankruptcy, only an issue of short-term loss of which they are sufficently protected as to make said loss insignificant.

WN has issues that must be delt with in the future, but they are "problems" that any other airline exec would give his first born child to deal with.
 
texan
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:11 pm

Quoting SonOfACaptain (Reply 8):
Like it or not, WN is going to lose money sometime, and it might be sooner than a lot of people expect.

Funny, people have been saying that for the past 30 years... Silly

Yes, it is likely that sometime in the future they will lose money. When? Not betting on the next few years. The reason they will not be losing as much money as quickly as you, Tornado82, and a few others expect is because, believe it or not, they are adapting to market conditions. They are entering some of the larger markets and building up a decent presence on key business routes. They will continue to do this and go head to head against entrenched carriers, especially when a major weakness is showing. So far they have been successful, so there is little reason to believe this strategy will not continue to be successful. That is why WN will be entering the CLT and MSP markets by the end of next year and are exporing entering EWR, JFK, or LGA (still in early stages) among other major markets. This will, at the very least, buy them more time in the black and disproportionately increase the amount of last minute, high fare business travellers who use them. But, if what you are saying is at some point they will reach a point of saturation, I think you are probably right.

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
cjpark
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:16 pm

Quoting SkyHarborsHome (Reply 25):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
WN will be flying unrestricted from DAL, but will relocate the company HQ to PHX.

Know the rumor mill has been going for a while, but this article came out yesterday regarding Phoenix and WN.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepu...ness/articles/0225southwest25.html

I wonder when and if we will see this happen. Personally, I think they are loyal to DAL and would be very reluctant to move. However, I have been wrong before and actually hope I am wrong this time.

KC you can bet that should WN move its head quarters to Phoenix there will be no more Love for WN at DAL. DAL as a pax airport will finally shut down.
"Any airline that wants to serve the [region] can go to DFW today and fly anywhere they want," WN spokesman Ed Stewart
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:21 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 32):

For the year 2006? You may be interested to know WN is targeting a 15% earnings increase for 2006.

Not for the year, a quarterly loss for Q1 2007.
 
floorrunner
Posts: 186
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2004 7:11 am

RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:24 pm

I see the following for Southwest in the next 5-10 years.

They will be using the cushion of their fuel hedges to plan for when they expire.
They will keep on finding ways to be more efficient.
I see them connecting more of the dots on their current route maps. I see them adding at least one new city per year if not 2.

These are my gut instincts for new cities.

MSP
CLT
CAE
FAT or BFL
one more Florida city Either SRQ or MLB.
ATL if Delta is sgnificanltly downsized or gone otherwise SAV
DSM
PWM or BGR
CVG
EWR if the gate space is available. or possibly ACY.
MKE
Some far fetched ideas
MDT AVP ABE CRW RAP BTV

Just a reminder these are all my own personal feelings.
What are everyone else's thoughts on these.

Patrick
 
iowaman
Posts: 3878
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:33 pm

Quoting Floorrunner (Reply 36):
MSP
CLT
CAE
FAT or BFL
one more Florida city Either SRQ or MLB.
ATL if Delta is sgnificanltly downsized or gone otherwise SAV
DSM
PWM or BGR
CVG
EWR if the gate space is available. or possibly ACY.
MKE
Some far fetched ideas
MDT AVP ABE CRW RAP BTV


Just a reminder these are all my own personal feelings.
What are everyone else's thoughts on these.

Well, the ones with the most potential and possibility are probably first for WN:

CLT
CVG
MSP
ATL (if something happens to DL/FL)
NYC (if they can get gates/slots)
MEM
 
QXatFAT
Posts: 2310
Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2006 3:51 pm

RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:35 pm

Where are they in 5-10 years? I would like to see them in LAN, MSP, and MKE. I dont think that they will be in the hole at all. People enjoy flying them. Expecially like my uncle who goes on buisness constantly.
Don't Tread On Me!
 
ejmmsu
Posts: 1647
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 6:05 am

RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:54 pm

I believe MEM will be on the very short list if indeed the Wright Ammendment is abolished or relaxed to allow Tennessee. MEM-DAL would probably be the biggest route out of MEM, and it is really needed to make a station there viable.
"If the facts do not conform to the theory, they will have to be disposed of"
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 12:57 pm

Quoting Floorrunner (Reply 36):

Some far fetched ideas
MDT AVP ABE CRW RAP BTV

That's VERY far-fetched...

Quoting Floorrunner (Reply 36):
ACY.

A hop, skip, and jump from PHL, just like ABE.
 
cloudy
Posts: 1613
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 3:23 pm

RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 10:48 pm

Quoting Aloha73G (Reply 19):
As far as employee pay goes, Southwest can afford to pay their employees ALOT more than anyone else because they get alot more from their employees.

Southwest has about 75 employees per aircraft
JetBlue has about 96 employees per aircraft
American has about 130 employees per aircraft

These figures are a bit misleading, since American has some much larger aircraft. Also, some things that are done in-house at some companies are outsourced at others. Outsourcing makes a company's employee count misleadingly low. Nevertheless, the core point is valid. Southwest is very efficient in how it utilizes labor.
 
efcar98
Posts: 131
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:02 pm

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 40):

Good idea, as I'm a college student in the Lehigh valley, WN's presence would be much preferrable to those saab 340s I have to fly to take any plane out of IAD. I have to go to MIA in a few weeks, i may be "forced" to take Hooters Air. I would rather take WN

[Edited 2006-02-27 15:03:36]
 
HPRamper
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:22 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 32):
(2) Even in 2009, WN still has 25% at/below $35 a barrel. Exposure to 75% of market price is dramatic compared to 2004 and 2005, but their competition is exposed to 100%.

Can't the other airlines get hedging agreements as time goes on? I know US currently does have some hedges in place, though nowhere near as extensive as WN.
 
KALB
Posts: 564
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:36 pm

I find it interesting that the WN nay-sayers invariably write, as did Michael Boyd (posted above), "But the real news is Southwest. True, it reported a profit for the last quarter, but it was predicated entirely on the fuel-hedge cost advantage it currently enjoys. Take that away, and the Southwest Model - as it's currently structured, and within the current pricing environment - doesn't make money.".

WN had the smarts to hedge. Hedging was an essential element to WN sustaining profitability.

Rather than saying, "If WN had not hedged they would not be turning a profit", one might ask the question, "What shape would the legacy carriers be in if they had hedged their fuel?" Why didn't UA,US, DL, NW, AA and all the rest have the same foresight as WN?

[Edited 2006-02-27 15:44:30]
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:44 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 43):
Can't the other airlines get hedging agreements as time goes on? I know US currently does have some hedges in place, though nowhere near as extensive as WN.

At WN's rate of $35 a barrel? No, no future trader would sell for anything in that range. Airlines can hedge at the current market rate for a long-term hedge which can be anywhere from $55-65 a barrel.

Some airlines do have very minor hedges around 5-10% maximum, but they pale in comparison to the extent of WN's hedging and are set a higher prices.
 
sccutler
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:46 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 43):
Can't the other airlines get hedging agreements as time goes on? I know US currently does have some hedges in place, though nowhere near as extensive as WN.

See, here's what is interesting.

Hedging is no magic pill, it is just a financial play, a bet on the future moves of the prices of energy. Had oil prices stayed low, Southwest would have spent the money that the hedging contracts cost and gained nothing from it... except for a greater degree of certainty that precipitous energy cost increases would not kill them. And that is the point so many are missing when they write (with some bizarre form of glee) words to the effect of "If Southwest hadn't hedged, they'd have lost umpty-million dollars!"

As if that made a rat's hind end.

If Southwest had paid too much for aircraft, if Southwest had less-productive employees, if Southwest (insert example of loss-making poor business practice here), they would have lost money.

Southwest is, and continues to be, the best carrier at constantly and relentlessly plumbing for the best and most effective way to do every single thing that they do, and they have structured their business model on rewarding their employees well for achieving this goal. Hedging is but one, small (though currently, high-profile) piece of that model.

Remember: The reason Southwest was able to hedge to the extent that they did was that they have always practiced conservative financial management- they always have a lot of cash and cash-equivalents around. That is likely to continue to be a key difference between WN and every other carrier out there, and it is likely that their adaptation to the vagaries of he marketplace and world conditions will continue to show success.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Mon Feb 27, 2006 11:46 pm

Quoting KALB (Reply 44):
Why didn't UA,US,DL,NW,AA and all the rest had the same foresight as WN?

Foresight or not, they would have needed cash on hand to do so. No money, no financing, no hedges.

Quoting EFCar98 (Reply 42):
I have to go to MIA in a few weeks, i may be "forced" to take Hooters Air. I would rather take WN

I'd recommend a drive/Beiber bus over to Newark if you dislike Hooters that much. From there you have CO, or B6 to FLL? I believe. I haven't had a reason to go to Florida in quite some time, but I've heard nothing bad about Hooters. Some of your classic Lehigh Valley ultra-conservatives get a little cranky about the girls, but otherwise I've heard plenty of good and no bad about Hooters... other than the classic frequency/inflexibility problems you face with a charter carrier like that. What I was saying in Reply 40 is that there's no way WN would go ABE & ACY while still at PHL... it would be like going MHT and BOS, instead of PVD. ABE would probably stand a better chance though, flank NYC on both sides with ISP and ABE. "The convenient Newark alternative," lol.
 
redflyer
Posts: 3881
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RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Tue Feb 28, 2006 12:05 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
they will absorb TZ, making it their international and military charter division.

They might absorb TZ, but I think they will keep them as a separate entity or at least retain the separate brand. WN will, in order to preserve its own brand and public perception, remain a strictly domestic carrier. If it expands to international destinations it will use a different brand, a la TZ.
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
txagkuwait
Posts: 1388
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 1999 7:39 am

RE: Where Is WN Going In The Next 5 To 10 Years?

Tue Feb 28, 2006 12:46 am

5 to 10 years isn't as far off in the future as it used to seem.

Look at the last 10 yrs of Southwest and predict "more of the same", basically.

If oil stabilizes, minor fare increases may be all that is necessary.

The folks predicting doom and gloom since all other airlines have eviscerated their wage scales are premature, to say the least. I would ask this question - assuming the industry becomes profitable once again, how long do you think it will be before every unionized employee at AA, UA, US, etc etc starts screaming, wanting to be paid as well as WN employees? Answer---not long. So whereas Southwest's labor contracts will ensure their employees keep pace with inflation, you can expect a definite "bump" in the other airlines' labor costs once they start to earn a profit.

Let's say 2006 --- they add MSP. They spend much of the year beefing up Denver and towards the end of the year PIT and PHL pick up some additional service. Oh and don't forget MSY.

2007 - Wright is repealed. They spend the year connecting Dallas with various places and beefing up PIT and PHL.

2008 - more of connect the dots with Dallas. Maybe open a station in NYC - LaGuardia would be nice, Newark might be more likely --- especially if JetBlue decides to retrench and pull their assets back to home base at JFK.

2009 - Atlanta. More specifically, Marietta, GA. Southwest is able to lobby successfully to have Dobbins ARB designated as a joint military/civilian use airport. Southwest has plenty of places to put the new capacity - New York, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh are all screaming for more flights.

2010 - Memphis and Charlotte are added.

2011 - Southwest embarks on a test to determine if they can profitably add some stations that cannot support the customary 10-12 trips per day. As a result, you see "canyon blue" in Wichita (3 trips to DAL, 3 to DEN), Fargo ND (2 trips a day to MSP, 2 to Las Vegas) and Sioux Falls SD ( 2 trips a day to MSP, 2 to Las Vegas). Oh, and let us not forget Columbia, SC.....4 trips to BWI, 2 to MCO, 1 to BNA and 1 to PHX.

2012 - The "off the beaten path" theory worked better than expected, so Southwest spends the year opening up stations at Laredo, TX( to HOU & DAL); Baton Rouge, LA; (to HOU & DAL) Cheyenne, WY (to SLC, PHX, and MDW); Northwest Arkansas Regional (DAL, MCI, BNA); Columbus, GA (BWI, MCO, MSY); and Fresno, CA.

2013 - Southwest goes international.....with service to Monterrey, Tampico, Veracruz, Merida, and Cozumel.

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