Look at the west and what WJ has managed to do in terms of traffic growth. Looking at that I come to the conclusion that there is room for two discount carriers in the east, and if CanJet is properly managed and wants to succeed, then I think it will. I also feel that YYZ is getting a bit crowded, but it is the largest airport in the country so it can support more, even though my feeling is that perhaps CanJet should look more to Ottawa or Montreal. Nonetheless I give them a decent chance to prove themselves.
I do, however, think there will be a loser from this: the charter airlines. Yeah, I think CanJet will succeed, but partly because I'm not sure that the three charters aren't excessive. Charters are great for offering holiday flights to a lot of destinations in Europe or sunspots, and some limited domestic markets, but I think that WJ and CanJet will squeeze them out of some markets. The reasons are simple: the charters may look like sked carriers, but their schedules are often only twice a week or so, and people will prefer daily flights from a discount carrier by a longshot, even if they need to connect for some route pairs. Also, the charters also seem mostly focused on selling tickets through travel agents, I think the cheaper and often easier direct ticketing that WJ or CanJet use will prove a better choice for many passengers. In the end I think we'll see the charters either forced to merge, or we'll see one of them fail, or at least cut back domestic flights a bit, merely staying on a few long range, high traffic city pairs...
Also, if Hamilton Airlines (see http://www.hamiltonairlines.com
) starts up, I expect them to fail. There are just too many problems with what they're proposing, and it appears to be undercapitalized.