jdwfloyd
Posts: 799
Joined: Sun Feb 06, 2005 10:29 am

Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:33 am

I know its be discussed before but not recently, who get what if or when NW goes under. Who would take the major cities and routes. Who gets the A/C, and what of the mega code share with KL?
 
Fly4Ever
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2006 4:14 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:49 am

If NW were to liquidate, my first guess is that UA would try its best to secure as much of the pacific routings it could obtain and flights from the NRT base to up UAL's flights already. Not sure about aircraft though, would assume that US would be interested in the A330's. Good question though.
 
piercey
Posts: 2188
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 11:07 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:49 am

The hubs are screwed. DTW might be courted with the new terminal, but that's about it.
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
jpj777
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 3:18 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:55 am

Just go to all three hubs and take the "North" name out and replace it with "South"  Smile
 
piercey
Posts: 2188
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 11:07 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting Fly4Ever (Reply 1):
If NW were to liquidate, my first guess is that UA would try its best to secure as much of the pacific routings it could obtain and flights from the NRT base to up UAL's flights already.

hmmm..... I'm thinking CO would put up a fight for those routes, though.

Quoting Jpj777 (Reply 3):
Just go to all three hubs and take the "North" name out and replace it with "South"

 rotfl  How true, but you can definatly kiss goodby anything intl.
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
nitrohelper
Posts: 406
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 5:32 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:05 am

The famous DC-9s go to the sandbox, , , DC-10's RIP old friends , , 757 don't know ?? 747 freighters ,,hello Mr. Kallita,! ! ,, 747-400s to the guys that get the NRT 'stuff"
Tha 330s & skinny buses to everywhere, I hear everybody wants them, make a call to
the Emirates! Maybe some buyers care about engines ,seats,, or,,help me out ?
I think AA would pick the Asian bones, tell me who takes MSP or DTW,,,  listen 
 
jdwfloyd
Posts: 799
Joined: Sun Feb 06, 2005 10:29 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:08 am

I really think US would make a hard run for those 330's and some of the 752s. Maybe even a focus city in MSP or DTW, or by some stretch SEA to possibly start up NRT runs. Who knows, but it should be interesting. The biggest people to benifit from NW tanking would be UA due to less competion in the midwest, west and far east. US for cheap A/C and some routes. Last but not least WN for...well you know.
 
commavia
Posts: 9622
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:13 am

Quoting Fly4Ever (Reply 1):
If NW were to liquidate, my first guess is that UA would try its best to secure as much of the pacific routings it could obtain and flights from the NRT base to up UAL's flights already.

No way. Not only would UA never be able to afford it, but the government would never allow United to take over Northwest's Asian network, as it would put UA into the enviable position of controlling 81% of the U.S.-Asia market. AA, on the other hand, has both the money and the lack of monopolistic tendancy to be able to easily slide in and buy Northwest's Asian network.

All of this is, of course, a huge hypothetical, which I think has been made all the more unlikely because of NW's recent concentual agreements reached with its pilots and FA unions.
 
User avatar
yowza
Posts: 4275
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:01 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:23 am

One of the few good things that could come from NW going under would be the elimination of the weekly "When are NW replacing their DC9s" threads  Wink

That said I really hope things don't come to that. I've had some great memories on NW.

YOWza
 
jdwfloyd
Posts: 799
Joined: Sun Feb 06, 2005 10:29 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:04 am

I'm sure CO would eat up the 753s if the worse were to happen. Wonder if they would beef up operations in CLE to take some of the midwest traffic.
 
spartanmjf
Posts: 457
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 11:31 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:08 am

Quoting Jpj777 (Reply 3):
Just go to all three hubs and take the "North" name out and replace it with "South" Smile

And how about a nice corporate headquarters location?  banghead 
"Nuts to the man in 21D!"
 
flyingfool
Posts: 321
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 11:28 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:15 am

No further discussions possible, I get all!!!  Wink
 
vegasplanes
Posts: 656
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:22 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:17 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
all the more unlikely because of NW's recent concentual agreements reached with its pilots and FA unions.

So far only an agreement with the F/A's union, still needs to be voted on by the members.

From: http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/060301/1234688.html?.v=4

bizjournals.com
NWA, flight attendants reach deal
Wednesday March 1, 6:08 pm ET

Meanwhile, Northwest continues to negotiate with its pilots union. That union's contract could still be voided by the bankruptcy judge.

Pilots still in talks, they are the group I would be most concerned about if I were NW mgmt.

I would think AA would have the best chance of picking up Asian routes, myabe CO, IF NW did go bye-bye, whoever bought the Asian routes would most likely have to take some or all of the 744's maybe some A330's to start service right away. Sort of like DL buying Pan Am Europe routes with A310's or UA buying Pan Am's Asian routes with 747SP's and L1011's.
 
gunsontheroof
Posts: 3226
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2006 8:30 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:20 am

SEA could get real interesting without NW...I'd imagine we'd see KL jump on AMS-SEA, maybe additional Seattle-Hawaii frequencies added by HA, possibly a second UA flight on SEA-NRT (or maybe a Japanese carrier?), AS adding MSP, DTW and maybe MEM as soon as they have the metal...Where the planes go is anyone's guess.
 
centrair
Posts: 2845
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:44 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:27 am

I have a feeling that the routes will be divided up among airlines. Maybe CO and AA will gets some routes and 5th freedom with limitations. Maybe they say that CO and AA get half of the total routes but only 1/3 of the 5th freedom rights our of NRT. Then they allow a little more out of KIX and NGO. Some other slots at NRT would be given off to other carriers that want access like EK.

Maybe US will fight for a few routes as well.

Watch for NH to really boost things.

As for fleet. It is just too hard to tell what would happen. We all know the DC9s are gone but the A330s would get sent all over the world.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
vegasplanes
Posts: 656
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:22 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:33 am

In terms of NW and the domestic ops., their hubs are not huge O/D markets, most people are connecting passengers, they can connect anywhere on any other carrier, example, for DTW and MSP, go AA, UA, or WN through ORD/MDW. AA or WN through STL, CO through CLE, DL through CVG. Most passengers probably could care less about which of those cities they change planes in. ATL and STL would most likely see the larrgest boost from MEM closing up as a hub.

From MSP, DTW, and MEM I would see the legacy carriers adding a few more daily flights to hubs, or upgrade to mainline on some routes. NK expand in DTW, WN start service/expand in all three, FL boost service to MEM and MSP. This would also stimulate some price increases as removing approx. 7-9 % of domestic capacity over-nite should help the rest of the carriers greatly.
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:36 am

Quoting Fly4Ever (Reply 1):
my first guess is that UA would try its best to secure as much of the pacific routings it could obtain and flights from the NRT base to up UAL's flights already.

There's a little thing called the U.S.-Japan Bilateral, which specifies that the U.S. may have two incumbent carriers, with full rights to operate any flight, with any frequency, between any two city pairs between the U.S. and Japan.

United already has incumbent status, it does not need Northwest's (the other named incumbent carrier). United *may* seek some of NW's slots, however.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 14):
I have a feeling that the routes will be divided up among airlines. Maybe CO and AA will gets some routes and 5th freedom with limitations.

You can't just split up the rights of an incumbent carrier. It will go in whole to another carrier.
International Homo of Mystery
 
jerion
Posts: 230
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 12:59 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:38 am

Doesn't MSP have pretty good O&D numbers?
L10/D9S/D10/M80/M88/732/733/734/735/73G/738/72S/757/762/763/320/319/318/ERJ
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:44 am

MSP and DTW could be completely devistated. DTW especially - smack between CLE and ORD and a whole lot of new investment debt, not a good place to be. MSP, perhaps someone would jump in. Frontier getting scrappy and picking up some buses? Midwest cornering the "Midwest" and mixing it up with the DC-9's (they could be the biggest gainer from it)? You never know.... Either way, what an incredibly nasty mess for those two cities. If no one jumps in.. Total Carniage.
 
Tornado82
Posts: 4662
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:50 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 18):
DTW especially - smack between CLE and ORD and a whole lot of new investment debt, not a good place to be.

I could see CO expanding into the void left at DTW, and ditching CLE.
 
piercey
Posts: 2188
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 11:07 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:04 am

Quoting YOWza (Reply 8):
One of the few good things that could come from NW going under would be the elimination of the weekly "When are NW replacing their DC9s" threads

That said I really hope things don't come to that. I've had some great memories on NW.

Other then those threads, I also have good memories with NW. Don't die yet, NW!

Quoting Jdwfloyd (Reply 9):
I'm sure CO would eat up the 753s if the worse were to happen.

the 757s (CO), A330s (US) , A320s (everywhere), 747s (cargo and asia), and DC-10s (cargo) will be sold in a heartbeat

Quoting Jdwfloyd (Reply 9):
Wonder if they would beef up operations in CLE to take some of the midwest traffic.

Pop that champagne!  champagne 

Quoting Vegasplanes (Reply 15):
NK expand in DTW

The real wildcard..... could NK become a 2 hub airline and grab as many A320s as possible? NK will be an interesting airline to watch just like FL if DL folds.

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 19):
I could see CO expanding into the void left at DTW, and ditching CLE.

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please CO, CLE loves you! *looks at mayor attempting to get a new manager* Screw it, RUN, CO, RUN!
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
waterpolodan
Posts: 1605
Joined: Sun Feb 13, 2005 3:46 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:04 am

Maybe it's been discussed previously, but what would happen to NW's 787 order?
 
piercey
Posts: 2188
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 11:07 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:13 am

Quoting Waterpolodan (Reply 21):
Maybe it's been discussed previously, but what would happen to NW's 787 order?

Someone will take the slots/planes. Similar to when AZ cancled their 744 order a few years ago and VS picked up the planes.
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
 
DC10GUY
Posts: 2590
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2000 5:52 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:39 am

I could see Fedex picking up the 757's. And maybe UPS & Fedex fighting over Northwest's cargo slots. I feel very sure Fedex will be buying some airlines fleet of 757's... Delta's ? Maybe. Northwest's ??? I'd put money on it.
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
MalpensaSFO
Posts: 1110
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2006 10:17 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:58 am

Quoting Fly4Ever (Reply 1):
If NW were to liquidate, my first guess is that UA would try its best to secure as much of the pacific routings it could obtain and flights from the NRT base to up UAL's flights already

American Airlines would grab if they can the slots/routes for DTW-NRT to add a second daily ORD-NRT flight, SFO-NRT. Chicago could easily gain new service to Amsterdam.

Continental Airlines would grab if they can the slots for LAX-NRT, HNL-NRT, NRT-HKG, NRT-BKK, NRT-SIN. Cleveland may finally see service to the likes of Amsterdam, Honolulu, London, and Paris.

Delta Airlines would grab if they can the slots for JFK-NRT, MSP-NRT could be transferred to operate a CVG-NRT flight. Salt Lake could finally see service to Paris, and Amsterdam.

United Airlines would grab if they could the slots/routes for NRT-CAN, NGO-MNL, KIX-MNL.

US Airways would grab if they could the slots/routes for the second DTW-NRT flight and transfer it to PHL-NRT or PHX-NRT. The DTW-NGO transferred to PHX-NGO or PHL-NGO. It is possible to see a 747-400 program rolled into the US Airways network as a stop gap until newer aircraft could be ordered. Phoenix and Las Vegas might fast track to Europe with the addition of London, or Frankfurt from either.


Quoting Jdwfloyd (Reply 6):
I really think US would make a hard run for those 330's and some of the 752s

The 330's may fit mroe than well so as that the 767-200 being operated to Venice, Milan, Barcelona, Munich, Amsterdam, Stockholm, and Madrid can be used for high density domestic service such as LAX-PHL, PHX-PHL, LAS-PHL, LAS-LAX, PHX-LAX, LAS-PHX, PHX-HNL, LAS-HNL.. The 752's could be useful to enable an expanded operation from Phoenix to Central America, Las Vegas to Central America. Also if the aircrafy had the legs additional service from Philadelphia to the likes of Brussels, Geneva, Berlin, Copenhagen, Oslo, Birmingham, and Central America.
TO FLY IS TO SERVE
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:07 am

Quoting MalpensaSFO (Reply 24):
American Airlines would grab if they can the slots/routes for DTW-NRT to add a second daily ORD-NRT flight, SFO-NRT. Chicago could easily gain new service to Amsterdam.

Continental Airlines would grab if they can the slots for LAX-NRT, HNL-NRT, NRT-HKG, NRT-BKK, NRT-SIN. Cleveland may finally see service to the likes of Amsterdam, Honolulu, London, and Paris.

You really need a better understanding of the U.S.-Japan Bilateral, and differentiate between "routes" and "slots". I've posted this before, but it's time to post it again:

http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/7000/7500/7580/jatww3-2matthews.pdf

It explains the difference between an incumbent and MOU carrier in the U.S.-Japan market, and how the beyond rights are allocated.
International Homo of Mystery
 
nitrohelper
Posts: 406
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 5:32 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:14 pm

What? NW is getting rid of the DC-9s,who said that ?
I say not until 2012. what would they replace them with ?
A baby jet ? maybe the 797? Hmm, sounds familiar
no no not again  stirthepot   slaphappy 
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 1874
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:40 pm

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 19):
I could see CO expanding into the void left at DTW, and ditching CLE.

I could see this as well, as there is more room to expand there.

I could also see maybe US pick up MSP or DTW and some of the airbuses to get the mid-continent hub that many feel they need.
 
MalpensaSFO
Posts: 1110
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2006 10:17 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:47 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 25):
You really need a better understanding of the U.S.-Japan Bilateral, and differentiate between "routes" and "slots".

The routes were suggestive, the slots in the case of a bankruptcy or liquidation bring an entirely different game into play. If Continental were to "purchase" NWA Pacific ops for example the slots would be transferred to CO, or am I mistaken. In addition has this not been done before with the transfer of slots from Pan Am to UAL, as with the 5th freedom from Narita to Asia?
TO FLY IS TO SERVE
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:49 pm

If CO were to take Asia, they would need planes to fly there. There is no real reason that they couldn't take some 757s and all the 332s from NW. The 333s could go to US.

The 332s would become the Air Mike and Asia fleet with roughly 20/235 seating similar to the 764s in the Asia network, and the 764s can be pulled back to the mainland for Europe and South America, and refitted with 35BF seats instead of 20. This would also free up some 777s from Europe to expand flying to NRT (either by downgaging marginal routes or doubling up popular routes). More 738s could be sent to asia as well, replaced by 757s domestically. The NW 753s are configured pretty much the same as the CO 753s, and CO could take only the 752s they really need to complete the domestic network. Granted, they are PW, but with a large enough number, they have the same economy of scale they have with their 757RR fleet.

Once 787s come online, the 332s could be phased out, or remain in Asia if they turn out to work for CO. It's speculation, but there isn't much of a reason that if given the need for jets, CO wouldn't add a type as long as they don't use them all over the system.

The 320s would be coveted around the world, no problem there. The Douglas aircraft would be retired. The 747s would be converted to freighters.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
MalpensaSFO
Posts: 1110
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2006 10:17 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:51 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
The 320s would be coveted around the world, no problem there. The Douglas aircraft would be retired. The 747s would be converted to freighters.

How hard would it be to fluff up the NWA A320 and 757 that are without IFE?
TO FLY IS TO SERVE
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:56 pm

Quoting MalpensaSFO (Reply 28):
If Continental were to "purchase" NWA Pacific ops for example the slots would be transferred to CO, or am I mistaken. In addition has this not been done before with the transfer of slots from Pan Am to UAL, as with the 5th freedom from Narita to Asia?

For the Japan routes, that's how it was done with Pan Am/UA, and UA even picked up the aircraft to fly the routes as well.

From my understanding, the other routes in Asia (not 5ths ex-Japan) could be sold, traded, re-allocated, what have you, just like any other international route covered by a bilateral or multilateral agreement.

It has been stated in this and other threads that only AA would be currently capable of having the capital to essentially take over the incumbent status. I've no idea if that's true or not, my point will only be that the routes can't just be sliced and diced as airlines please when it comes to Japan.
International Homo of Mystery
 
DeltaRules
Posts: 3649
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2001 11:57 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:00 pm

Quoting MalpensaSFO (Reply 30):
How hard would it be to fluff up the NWA A320

Aren't a few of their older A320s IFE-equipped but never used? Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought I saw that on here once.

DeltaRules
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
bennett123
Posts: 7424
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:07 pm

The DC10 have about 125K on the clock and IMO will be sold for parts only.

The DC9 you never know, I recently saw an ex US DC9 in Egypt, now Air Memphis.
 
PSA727
Posts: 845
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 7:49 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:11 pm

I'm not sure if you can separate the Fifth Freedom Rights and NRT landing
slot allocations. I mean, who would want to acquire those rights but not
have the time slots to actually operate flights?

There is no way the U.S. Government would allow United to attain NW's
Fifth Freedom Rights when they themselves have the other U.S. one.

As for aircraft, I think the 747s and DC-10s would probably be converted
to freighters.

The 753s would probably go to CO.

Because US is Airbus's other biggest North American customer, I would
think that they would shift the 333s and especially the 332s into US's
fleet; mainly to use as a transitionary into the A350 deliveries next decade.

If some of the 752s are engine compatible with HP's and US's, then I
can see the new US acquiring some of those too in order to boost their
international and Hawaiian expansion.

As for DL, they're really not in a financial position to acquire any additional
aircraft, and more importantly, only the 752s are used by both carriers.
And I don't think that is the aircraft type DL wants more of right now.
fly high, pay low...Germanwings!
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:23 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 31):
It has been stated in this and other threads that only AA would be currently capable of having the capital to essentially take over the incumbent status. I've no idea if that's true or not, my point will only be that the routes can't just be sliced and diced as airlines please when it comes to Japan.

But with a viable plan like expanding into lucrative Asia, CO could raise the capital to do it. Contract a leasing company to buy the A332s and 757s and then leasing them back for a specific term is also a way to reduce the outlay required to take over ops. Pilots and MX would already be trained on this equipment if hired over, reducing that initial cost. CO needs an NRT lounge, but NW has two of them, so there's only a conversion expense there (use one while converting the other, then possible close the first one?)

CO has a larger presence in Japan than AA if you count all the airports, despite fewer NRT flights. CO already flies to 8 japanese cities out of Guam, Nagoya out of HNL and NRT from IAH and EWR.

Which is not to say AA wouldn't want the network, too. Just pointing out that money is always available if the business model makes sense, and taking over Asia routes while adding the right sized aircraft via lease makes sense, especially if only a limited domestic capacity increase is attached to the deal.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:26 pm

Quoting PSA727 (Reply 34):
There is no way the U.S. Government would allow United to attain NW's
Fifth Freedom Rights when they themselves have the other U.S. one.

Again, you should really read the article I linked. UA already has virtual parity with NW (there may be some 5ths one has the other doesn't, I'm not sure), there's really nothing for the U.S. government to say UA can't have in this case. If UA had the aircraft, slots and desire, they could start flying 3 747's a day between DTW-NRT starting tomorrow morning.

It is the obligation of the U.S., under the bilateral, to name a replacement incumbent carrier. That's it.
International Homo of Mystery
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:30 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 35):
Just pointing out that money is always available if the business model makes sense, and taking over Asia routes while adding the right sized aircraft via lease makes sense, especially if only a limited domestic capacity increase is attached to the deal.

I absolutely agree with that statement. I don't believe AA is exclusively the only carrier able to raise the resources, or the interest, to take over incumbent status if that were to come to pass. There are a lot of things that have to happen first to even get to that point, however, like NW needing to shed its Asian routes.
International Homo of Mystery
 
swaluvfa
Posts: 256
Joined: Fri May 17, 2002 1:59 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:00 pm

I could definitely see AirTran sub-leasing as many a/c from Ryan International and Miami Air as the unions allow, and expand into MSP and DTW very quickly and aggressively until they have enough of their own metal to fill the void. A lot of AirTran's management is from Northwest and they know EXACTLY what they want in the even of a NWA shutdown.
 
HunUtazo
Posts: 229
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:09 pm

AMR/nwac

CAL/ual

LUV/dal parts

LCC/dal parts/ualbus
dude
 
AA777
Posts: 2358
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 7:07 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:20 pm

I feel like AA would love to get some more of the trans-pac routes since they are very profitable, but I have no idea if thats possible given the lack of common A/C, and AA's lack of AVAILABLE A/C. 744, 742, DC10, A330 are NW's longhaul planes...are all exactly the ones AA doesnt have. Unless they pulled another "TWA", and kept some of them (Perhaps 744s????) for an interim period until new orders could be placed, or the planes phased out.

They have commonality with the 757, but no engine commonality- NW uses the same engines as TWA did, and AA is phasing out the TWA 757s.

There's no doubt AA- the worlds biggest and arguably the most competitive (whether you like their competition tactics or not) would love to get some of NWs routes. Problem being, which ones, and how.

I see this as a MUCH bigger opportunity for airlines like UA and US- which shares commonality with the 744 (UA), A320, A330 (US) and 757. I think we may see the 742s and DC10s dumped very fast b/c of MX costs.

-AA777
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 13745
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:48 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
AA, on the other hand, has both the money and the lack of monopolistic tendancy to be able to easily slide in and buy Northwest's Asian network.

Lack of monopolistic tendancy? Have you been reading the zillions of Wright Amendment posts?
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
ewr756
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2004 9:59 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:11 am

Quoting Jdwfloyd (Reply 6):
I really think US would make a hard run for those 330's and some of the 752s.

Unlikely as NW 757s have P&W engines; US have RR.

Quoting Jdwfloyd (Reply 9):
I'm sure CO would eat up the 753s if the worse were to happen.

Again, unlikely. NW = P&W; CO = RR

Quoting Jdwfloyd (Reply 9):
I'm sure CO would eat up the 753s if the worse were to happen.

See above response.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
There is no real reason that they couldn't take some 757s and all the 332s from NW.

No way CO would want 332s. Unlikely CO would want NW 757s due to different engines. CO made a concerted effort to eliminate non-Boeing aircraft and standardize engines; an effort that has paid off in reduced maintenance costs.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
The NW 753s are configured pretty much the same as the CO 753s, and CO could take only the 752s they really need to complete the domestic network.

Highly unlikely. Engine configurations completely different.

Quoting PSA727 (Reply 34):
The 753s would probably go to CO.

Need I mention it again?
There are no secrets in aviation.
 
ewr756
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2004 9:59 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting PSA727 (Reply 34):
The 753s would probably go to CO.

AGAIN, not likely. P&W vs. RR
There are no secrets in aviation.
 
byronsterk
Posts: 154
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:32 pm

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:41 am

Perhaps KL would be interested in some of their Airbus a/c, Air France is pushing KL more and more to the Airbus side
Helicopters can't fly, there just so ugly the earth repells them...
 
jdwfloyd
Posts: 799
Joined: Sun Feb 06, 2005 10:29 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:54 am

Quoting Ewr756 (Reply 42):
Unlikely as NW 757s have P&W engines; US have RR.



Quoting Ewr756 (Reply 42):
Again, unlikely. NW = P&W; CO = RR

US merged w/ HP and their Airbuses have different engines. When you are hard up with A/C to expand to profitable routes like Central America, Hawaii, and Europe you either make due with the engines on the available A/C or re-engine them.
 
hiflyer
Posts: 1270
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 1:38 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Fri Mar 03, 2006 1:05 am

IF..and that is a big IF...NWA shut down a few things would probably occur, IMHO

1 it would be the end of the DC9 thread...grin
2 the pacific package would probably be broken up into at least two parts using 'spirit of competition' as the public reason but privately lack of funds as the real one. Neither AA or CAL could cough up the amount to take the whole package without selling something major off. One part would be NRT and the other would be the remainder.
3 MSP DTW MEM will be shopping for a new major tenant or two. Spirit will take as much of DTW as they can, don't think Sun Country can do much quickly at MSP but they might grow some, MEM probably will be invaded by RJ's even more. Midwest may relocate from MKE to MSP...don't be suprised at that. B6 LUV and FL will come in, of course, but more as spokes from exisiting at the begining. UAL AMR CAL USAir will flood in rj's as placeholders to see how it shakes out.
 
User avatar
AA777223
Posts: 969
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2006 6:12 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Fri Mar 03, 2006 1:24 am

Quoting AA777 (Reply 40):
I feel like AA would love to get some more of the trans-pac routes since they are very profitable, but I have no idea if thats possible given the lack of common A/C

I bet if this happened, we would see some of the 777s pulled from european and south american routes, and used until the rest of their order could be fulfilled, which I bet would happen quickly. They may not have much money, but faced with the proposition of increasing the asian network, I bet they would figure out a way to get them.
A318/19/20/21, A300, A332/3, A343/6, A388, L1011, DC-9, DC-10, MD-11, MD-80, B722, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9, B743/4/4M, B752/3, B762/3/4, B772/E/W, B788/9, F-100, CRJ-200/700/900, ERJ-135/145/175, DH-8, ATR-72, DO-328, BAE-146
 
commavia
Posts: 9622
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Fri Mar 03, 2006 2:22 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 41):
Lack of monopolistic tendancy? Have you been reading the zillions of Wright Amendment posts?

Wright has nothing to do with this. I was referring specifically to the Pacific network. AA could buy NW's Asian network and still control less than half of the U.S.-Asia market. If UA bought the NW routes, it would control more than 80% of the U.S.-Asia market. That is what I mean by a 'monopolistic tendancy.'
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Who Gets What From NW If......

Fri Mar 03, 2006 3:00 am

Quoting AA777 (Reply 40):
I see this as a MUCH bigger opportunity for airlines like UA and US- which shares commonality with the 744 (UA), A320, A330 (US) and 757. I think we may see the 742s and DC10s dumped very fast b/c of MX costs.

The 333s could go to US, but they don't fly 332s. The A320s could be placed anywhere in the world, but I don't know that any USA carrier needs to expand domestic capacity so much to take those A32Xs right now (105/47 owned/lease as of June 2005).

With UA parking their own 744s, not sure why they would need NW jets. Nor do they need 757s, especially 300s. In their own fleet, they have enough benched aircraft to take up the slack of most of the routes they might add.

Quoting Ewr756 (Reply 42):
Again, unlikely. NW = P&W; CO = RR



Quoting Ewr756 (Reply 42):
CO made a concerted effort to eliminate non-Boeing aircraft and standardize engines; an effort that has paid off in reduced maintenance costs.



Quoting Ewr756 (Reply 42):
Need I mention it again?

No, because your point only goes so far, and it's annoying that you harp on it.

NW have 24 leased 752s and 16 owned 753s. If CO were to take those planes (having the lease company buy the 753s, then leasing them all), they would have 40 752s with PW engines. That should be enough to cover the needed capacity in the USA and Asia for anything but long range routes.

They currently have 54 RR powered 757s, and until recently, had UNDER 50.

Please explain to me how the economies of scale of a fleet of 50 RR 757s makes sense (no other jets in the mainline are RR), but having a fleet of 40 PW jets is not doable? We aren't talking about taking 10 planes here. 40 is a big enough number to make it viable, as long as you bring over NW mechanics to service them and pilots to fly them (or contract with GE, PW or RR to service them along with other engines). Ideally, it would be nice to have all 90 757s with one engine, but the fleet type would be big enough to still work.

Same holds for the 332s. If they can own a small fleet of 777s and make it work, or a small fleet of 767s and make it work, why not the 7+5 332s that NW has (will get) if they are kept as the Asia fleet. It's not ideal, but again, leasing these planes until 787s come into the fleet to replace them, and keeping them in Asia and not spreading them into Europe/South America, is not going to kill them. After all, the A332 is a fine plane that suits the type of medium range, over water trips the Pacific network requires. The planes already have IFE and 60" world business class, so it's just a matter of rebranding that as Business First, and ripping out 12 seats replacing them from Y, and you get a jet with BETTER CARGO ability and the same seat count as the 764s they use out there now.

As all those jets would be leased, they are basically configured as CO would configure them (the 757s would need new bins and overhead IFE, plus the 752s would need BF seats and the new AVOD), they could be replaced with 787s and 737RS planes in the future.

It makes more sense than merging with a 3 class airline for CO.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.

Who is online