LAXintl
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FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Fri Mar 03, 2006 3:34 pm

http://www.dailybreeze.com/news/articles/2388896.html?page=1&c=y

A report suggests demand for the airport may reach 112 million travelers a year by 2025

The forecast, released Tuesday by the Federal Aviation Administration, attempts to measure only the economic demand for air travel.

It does not take into account how the airport would handle that demand, or whether it physically could.

By most estimates, LAX can comfortably accommodate only about 79 million passengers a year. Planners and politicians want to siphon the additional demand toward the smaller airports scattered throughout the suburbs.

That won’t be easy. The forecast suggests that none of the region’s other airports will attract even a fraction of the demand at LAX on their own

The FAA uses its long-range forecasts to help it make planning, budgeting and staffing decisions. It updates the forecasts for most public airports in the country every year. In Los Angeles, the forecast also gives some idea of how much the region’s air traffic will have to shift to push enough demand toward the smaller airports.
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lightsaber
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Fri Mar 03, 2006 11:27 pm

An the region won't be ready at all...

Sad really. I really liked "plan A".

http://www.airport-technology.com/pr.../losangeles/index.html#losangeles3

Unless some pretty fast trasportation is built to ONT, it will stall the region's economy.

Lightsaber
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LAXintl
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:17 am

Unfortunately don't look for any of those proposals to come to fruition.

What was recently accepted in a court settlement was basically a hybrid version of #3.
The South 25L/07R runway will get relocated, a new center taxiway being built between 07/25 runways, TBIT redesign and expansion, multiple taxiway upgrades to reduce runway incursions, taxiway and terminal upgrades for the A380, some off airport changes including a central car rental facility.

Unfortunately not much at all to add to the airports overall capacity since the agreement limits LAX passengers numbers 75 million, and starts to reduce airport gates by 2 per year up to a total of 10 if traveler numbers exceed the 75 million starting in 2010.

As mentioned here on a.net other SoCal regional airports must step up to the plate and provide real relief as its clear demand will far outstrip capacity without some major changes.

On a related note, LAWA is working on new pricing structures of both LAX & ONT. Basically their plan is to provide financial incentives for greater usage of the much spare capacity and facilities at ONT, while providing economic disincentives via higher fees for usage of LAX.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
PanAm747
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Sat Mar 04, 2006 5:04 am

Oh, lordy, here we go again...SO many heads in the sand!!

BUR, LGB, and SNA cannot and will not ever expand. ONT is a nice facility with room to grow, but if you've never driven across L.A. you are in for the heaviest traffic you'll ever see in the U.S., 24/7/365¼.

San Diego...well, that's a mess being discussed elsewhere. I won't go into the insanity of that situation.

So, what does it all come down to? All the surrounding communities have done everything they can to shut down airports as best they can and move EVERYTHING to LAX. Now LAX NIMBY's want to restrict its growth.

If you don't build it or if you tear it down, they won't come

I think Monty Python would even say, "sorry, this is too ludicrous of situation for us to believe!!"

Allowing airports to be shrunk or reduced capacity across an entire region is criminal behavior beyond redemption. Satisfying NIMBY's who are shooting an entire region in the foot for their own selfish benefit is thoroughly reprehensible. In 20-30 years, most airports in southern California will be maxed out and slot restricted. Cheap airfares will go the way of the L.A. red cars, and the economy will suffer because of it.

And where does this leave our grandchildren? Stuck undoing our stupidity. I hope they can forgive us.  bomb 
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AADC10
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Sat Mar 04, 2006 5:07 am

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
As mentioned here on a.net other SoCal regional airports must step up to the plate and provide real relief as its clear demand will far outstrip capacity without some major changes.

The NIMBYs are blocking SNA, BUR and LGB. Concern is growing over ONT and we should expect to see some NIMBYs spring up if traffic starts to build and ONT is expected to top out at around 10-12 mil. pax per year. That leaves PMD. The NIMBYs will then proceed to complain about high airfares.
 
LAXintl
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Sat Mar 04, 2006 9:23 am

As mentioned in the article the FAA report does not take into consideration any external factors as the artificial facility limitations at places like SNA, LGB nor NIMBY factors, but instead only uses pure economic demand modeling to determine its projected passenger counts.

Whats I find interesting, is even without such external issues, is the amazing the rate of growth forcasted for LAX versus the other airports.

LAX would in theory close to double from todays 61.4 to 112mil.
BUR from 5.5mil to 9mil
SNA from 9.6mil to 16mil
LGB from 3.0mil to 5mil
ONT from 7.2mil to 10mil

Having lived many years on the Westside and South Bay, I cannot phantom the area absorbing such doubling of demand.

LA might be the place to be, it just seems the demand is incredibly lopsided into one single airport amongst such a huge metropolis.
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mymorningsong
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Sat Mar 04, 2006 10:08 am

Does anyone know what the capacity/number of gates that El Toro would have been?
 
LAXintl
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Sat Mar 04, 2006 10:33 am

Quoting Mymorningsong (Reply 6):
capacity/number of gates that El Toro would have been

El Toro went thru multiple design options/changes.

However its peak plan would have provided the design plan near 40 million passengers.

All types of various options were proposed from making El Toro a "Global Gateway", to using John Wayne and El Toro together by putting a perimeter rule on John Wayne for regional only flights, to finaly a much smaller and environmentally friendlier "Green Plan" that would have design limits of 15 or so million which even provided for habitat parks and such.

While many of the concepts made it thru governmental reviews, opponents of the airport were able to successfully vote in ballot initiatives that stopped the commercialization airport in its tracks.

Its really a shame in many ways, as continued growth is placing OC resident at greater and greater disadvantage from accessing convienent air transportation.
Due to its relative wealth, OC has the highest per capita air travel demand of all counties on the the greater LA area, and forces its residents to travel large distances for access. As is near 20% of LAX O&D passenger count is from OC residents, above what the natural catchment area percentage for LAX should be.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
ikramerica
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:25 pm

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 2):
Unfortunately don't look for any of those proposals to come to fruition.

We don't seem to be concerned about our overloaded freeways enough to do anything worthwhile about them, so why would we do anything worthwhile about our airports?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
juventus
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RE: FAA Forcast LAX Demand At 112mil By 2025

Sat Mar 04, 2006 10:00 pm

I think LAX is the most important airport in the country, followed by Kennedy. Demand is increasing from all angles, and the airport is not ready. I read reports about its appeal to terrorists because of crowed areas, and many other flaws the airport has. Unfortunately, they are true. Connecting at LAX on diferent airlines is a total nightmare. If you fly international, you better get there 3 hours before, and still, it could be a close call. It has many flaws, but its my airport. I hope things get better....

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