peterinlisbon
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Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Thu Mar 09, 2006 10:04 am

This is a continuation of a previous topic, which was getting to over 100 posts and it gets a bit tiresome to load that up every time.

I've been researching the subject of Peak Oil and actually the situation is a lot worse than I thought. I just wanted to reassure myself that aviation had a future of more than 40 years and unfortunately what I've found out is that actually it might not even last for another 20.

In 20 year's time oil production (assuming we're at peak about now) could be half what it is now. In the 1970s a shortage of 5% led to price rises of 400%. Image what a shortage of 50% would do to prices. 1000$ per barrel in 20 years time perhaps?

The point is not so much whether or not there is oil. The point is the price. An airline makes money out of flying passengers from one place to another. At the moment they can make a profit doing so. In the future this business will no longer be profitable. So what happens then? What happens to a businesss that is not profitable?

I believe that the decline of aviation is already beginning. Many large airlines have gone bankrupt, some have disappeared whilst others have been bailed out by the government. Many others are in poor financial health... Alitalia might collapse very soon, most of the big American airlines are at or close to bankruptcy.

So, it is already a delicate situation and it is going to get worse. Oil prices will rise to 100$, 500$, 1000$ over the next 20 years. Never mind running out. Long before this happens there will be very little commercial aviation left, because who can afford to fly at those costs?

Ok, so I invite comments. I would be very happy if any of you can prove me wrong.

[Edited 2006-03-09 02:13:35]
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Thu Mar 09, 2006 10:27 am

Something else that's just occurred to me as an example of how important the price of oil is. Imagine that it was more common, that we could get as much as we wanted in any country without having to import it from the Middle East. What would aviation be like if oil was at 5$ per barrel? I think that we would all be flying around at 5 times the speed of sound in the latest version or equivalent of Concorde. London-Tokyo would take about 2 hours. It's not the technology that's holding us back. It's just that it's not profitable because of the price of oil.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Thu Mar 09, 2006 2:10 pm

We aren't at peak now. People have been claiming we have been at peak since the 70s. Supplies are artificially constrained by cartels, and the ability to find new supplies is hindered by environmentalism, but that is not the same thing as running out.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
planemaker
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 1:52 am

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
Ok, so I invite comments. I would be very happy if any of you can prove me wrong.

Peak oil has not even nearly been reached... even conventional oil such as in the Middle East. Furthermore, there has lately been a lot of news on CNN and MSNBC about the oil tar sands in Northern Canada (Alberta) where there are proven reserves that are second only to Saudi Arabia and, depending upon the eventual price of oil, potential recoverable reserves which would be the largest in the world. Another large, untouched unconventional deposit is in Venezuela where there are huge reserves of heavy bitumen in the Orinoco basin. And in the USA there are very large deposits of oil shale.

In short, the world will not run out of oil any time soon... certainly not in our children's lifetime. What it may run out of is the very cheap oil that we (and the airline industry) had become accustomed to.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 2:55 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
We aren't at peak now. People have been claiming we have been at peak since the 70s.

In the 1970s we peaked in discovery of oil. I.e. since then we have been discovering less and less new each year. What we are about to hit is peak production. It can't keep on rising forever, there is obviously a limit, and this limit is about to be reached or perhaps has already been reached. We will only know afterwards, when we look back and see that production in 2006 was less than in 2005, for example.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 3):
Peak oil has not even nearly been reached... even conventional oil such as in the Middle East.

Where did you read that? This is not true. It is imminent. Production will definitely peak within 5 years at the latest. Maybe it will be this year. The consequence of this will be huge rises in prices. The tar sands are very large but they are not oil. They can be only be converted to oil through a very expensive and energy-consuming process. It might slow the decline in production but it won't stop it from declining.
 
bond007
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:03 am

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
I believe that the decline of aviation is already beginning. Many large airlines have gone bankrupt, some have disappeared whilst others have been bailed out by the government. Many others are in poor financial health... Alitalia might collapse very soon, most of the big American airlines are at or close to bankruptcy.

This has little or nothing to do with oil, or the price of it.

If oil goes up in price, then the airlines need to increase the cost of the ticket to cover it. Airlines today are not good at charging what they need to in order to make a profit.

Fuel accounts for 20-15% of operating expenses ..... reduce the other 80%.


Jimbo
I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
 
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yowza
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:14 am

Until we evolve to grow wings, we're not going to see the end of civil avaition .

YOWza
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:16 am

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 5):
Fuel accounts for 20-15% of operating expenses ..... reduce the other 80%

It does at the moment, but if it doubles in price it will be 40% of operating costs and if it doubles again it will be 80%. And it will within the next few years.
 
incitatus
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:20 am

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
Where did you read that? This is not true. It is imminent. Production will definitely peak within 5 years at the latest.

I have an old magazine from the mid-70s. The cover has a glass globe like the Earth, about 1/10th of the bottom full of oil. On top a hysteric headline about how we are running out of oil. So yes, it's imminent. It's been imminent since the early 70s.
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planemaker
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 3:38 am

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
Where did you read that? This is not true. It is imminent. Production will definitely peak within 5 years at the latest.

Not true??? Sorry, but someone has really been feeding you misinformation...

The Oil Sands of Canada hold recoverable reserves of 175 billion barrels with a proven reserve life of 480 years and another 130 billion barrels of potential reserves, which is second only to Saudi Arabia's 262 billion barrels.

http://www.oilonline.com/news/headli...siness/20060302.MSEV_com.20529.asp

EDMONTON (CP) - Alberta has enough oil in its tarsands region to last for hundreds of years, says Energy Minister Greg Melchin.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cpress/20060...ca_pr_on_na/alta_tarsands_report_1

According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Venezuela had 77.2 billion barrels of proven conventional oil reserves, the largest amount in the Western Hemisphere. This estimate, however, does not include substantial extra-heavy and bitumen deposits, which could be as high as 270 billion barrels.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Venezuela/Oil.html

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
They can be only be converted to oil through a very expensive and energy-consuming process.

The Alberta boom is made possible by the recent rise in oil prices to $67 a barrel. Tar sands production for many years had been considered cost-effective at $23 a barrel, and with improvements in exploration and extraction technologies, the price tipping point has fallen into the mid-teens, officials here say.

http://www.eenews.net/specialreports/tarsands/sr_tarsands1.htm

I could go on and on but if you research for yourself you will find that we are in fact far from running out of oil. Perhaps just really cheap oil - but not oil!!
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
bond007
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 4:11 am

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 7):
Quoting Bond007 (Reply 5):
Fuel accounts for 20-15% of operating expenses ..... reduce the other 80%

It does at the moment, but if it doubles in price it will be 40% of operating costs and if it doubles again it will be 80%. And it will within the next few years.

You might also want to research the price of oil over the past 30 years or so. The price today is less than it was 20 years ago (adjusted for inflation), far less than almost every other commodity.


Jimbo
I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
 
ikramerica
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 4:24 am

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
What we are about to hit is peak production.

Only because we aren't adding enough production facilities, NOT because we couldn't produce more at any time.

With all due respect, you don't know what you are talking about. You are believing the hype. My brother consulted for the oil industry in Houston, and his take on the matter is 180 degrees from yours. And he has more information than you.

Saudi Arabia itself could produce 3 times the oil it does now if they would build more wells. They just don't want to. There's no incentive because they are a major player in a cartel that acts as a near monopoly.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 8):
It's been imminent since the early 70s.

See the movie "The Man With The Golden Gun" My favorite bond movie, and full of worries about running out of oill

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 9):
Perhaps just really cheap oil - but not oil!!

True. Getting oil from the shale in Colorado or the sands in Canada or the Arctic reserve in Alaska is more expensive than cheap Saudi oil. Far different than running out.

That said, at $60 a barrel, all those options become viable. Problem is, that as soon as OPEC sees us trying to do it, they will let the price drop back to $30, where the cost becomes prohibitive. One reason that "$180 oil" is not a long term worry. It couldn't stay there because all new sources that can provide $45 oil would pop up as fast as possible.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
babybus
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 4:32 am

Airlines operate successfully on cheap oil. The other oils mentioned are expensive to extract. Prices will be going up.

Places like UAE have been gearing their economies for the oil running out for many years.

However, I believe with the collapse of businesses, due to decreasing consumer demand, all airlines will be back to operating flights to destinations 3 times a day; a morning, afternoon and evening flight.

Just my crazy thoughts.
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
planemaker
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 4:45 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 11):
Problem is, that as soon as OPEC sees us trying to do it, they will let the price drop back to $30, where the cost becomes prohibitive.

It is too late for that now. Oil sands development has reached a critical mass and extraction costs are now running between $13-15/barrel and dropping as the more efficient extraction technology and ancillary infrastructure comes on stream.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Gr8Circle
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 10, 2006 4:49 am

As mentioned above, the world is far from reaching a point of all the oilfields running dry, planes dead on the ground, automobiles immobilised, etc....this is a dream fantasy of hopelessly out of work journalists who like to whip up their imagination to get an article into their respective publications.....usually, without any strong understanding of the issue itself...

I remember reading such alarmist articles almost 20 years back when I was a kid and wondering what would happen to all the planes and cars in the future...well, 20 years have passed and all is well....

Oil prices, sensitive as they are to geo-political trends, will continue to dictate how affordable or unaffordable flying will be, but the taps won't run dry too soon.....  smile 
 
cedarjet
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 1:07 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
We aren't at peak now. People have been claiming we have been at peak since the 70s. Supplies are artificially constrained by cartels, and the ability to find new supplies is hindered by environmentalism, but that is not the same thing as running out.

We are near or past peak. The graphs for oil use and production in our society look like the Washington Monument - vertically up one side (from the 50s to the present) and straight down the other side. Reserves are artificially inflated, indeed have not been revised downward for decades, because far from not being bothered to drill more holes, the Saudis et al actually have less that they say, so as to avoid punitive restrictions placed on them (and their ability to make $$) by pumping less to conserve what's left. Speaking of conservation, those environmental pressures that provide a stay of execution to the Canadian landscape to get the oil shale are well-founded, you have to strip mine the entire area, trees, wildlife, all living stuff is bulldozed and denuded. Believe me I'd rather walk or spend my life farming and getting around on a horse than have oil companies plough through millions of square miles of wilderness just so I can sit in a traffic jam on my way to a crappy job.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 3):
Peak oil has not even nearly been reached... even conventional oil such as in the Middle East. Furthermore, there has lately been a lot of news on CNN and MSNBC about the oil tar sands in Northern Canada (Alberta) where there are proven reserves that are second only to Saudi Arabia and, depending upon the eventual price of oil, potential recoverable reserves which would be the largest in the world.

See above. Forget Canada - see above about the damage this kind of drilling / mining operation will do to the environment. It's not a world you want to live in brother.

Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 4):
In the 1970s we peaked in discovery of oil. I.e. since then we have been discovering less and less new each year.

Peaked? Discovery of oil ended in 1968, our last major discovery of new oil. You know Google Earth? We've had a similarly detailed survey of the earth's entire crust for ages, it's not like we're in an era of dopey Texans randomly drilling holes in the earth and striking untapped black gold. We know every square inch of the planet inside and out, and every last drop of oil.

Quoting YOWza (Reply 6):
Until we evolve to grow wings, we're not going to see the end of civil aviation .

I think we'll see the end of a lot of transport in our lifetimes including almost all aviation (and shipping). Remember that in the, say, 70s (the first oil shock), the only countries using oil were the US and Canada, western Europe and maybe Japan. That's about 20% of the world's population, or less. Nowadays everyone uses oil as a (or the) key part of their economy except Papua Nuigini and the Solomon Islands. China and India alone make up 25% of the world's population and they're going for it like crazy. Like I said, the graph of industrialisation looks like the Washington Monument, and we're about to go down the other side.

Anyone who says there's enough left for decades (or 480 years! hilarious!) is wrong. Too many oil companies are fudging the figures. And the alternatives are just not there. I saw a video report about the end of oil made for execs and government (and may be out on DVD later in the year for the public) and let me put it this way: there was a lot of footage of Amish people.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
DL787932ER
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 1:39 pm

Oh, lord. The idea of "peak oil" isn't anything new; alarmists and environmental nuts have been predicting the "peak" of oil production forever. People have been proclaiming that oil will run out in ten or twenty years for the past hundred and forty years.

Oil speculators are propping up the current price of crude far beyond the natural level of supply and demand. In other words, supply and demand still functions as it always has, but the "demand" is from people bidding up futures and not from the actual consumers of oil. The reality is that between a slowdown in speculation, abiotic sources, oil shale, and the trillions of barrels still available by natural means, we could have $20/bbl oil for the indeterminate future.

I do hope that in the long term we can figure out efficient fusion, so we can be done with all the oil nonsense. But no one currently alive (based on current life expectations) should ever realistically worry about "peak oil" unless they have some kind of ulterior motive. I'm a little worried that this thread was created by someone with some political motives.
F L Y D E L T A J E T S
 
planemaker
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 6:30 pm

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 15):
See above. Forget Canada - see above about the damage this kind of drilling / mining operation will do to the environment. It's not a world you want to live in brother.

Protest to the Alberta government... but you would be far too late for that already! Funny that in the country where Greenpeace was founded there are no protesters throwing themselves in front of the oil sand's heavy equipment like they do elsewhere in Canada to save a stand of trees!

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 15):
Anyone who says there's enough left for decades (or 480 years! hilarious!) is wrong.

You might do a little research and learn a thing or two about how much oil is already being produced in the Alberta oil sands... and how much more will be produced with the billions of dollars that major oil companies are pumping into production. Even China is building a pipe line from the Alberta oil sands to the Pacific coast.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
RiddlePilot215
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 6:50 pm

If anything what will kill Civil Aviation...General Aviation in specific, won't be the rapidly approaching petrol shortage. It'll more or less be politics that will be the stake in the heart.
God is good, all the time. All the time, God is good.
 
planemaker
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 7:37 pm

Quoting RiddlePilot215 (Reply 18):
...won't be the rapidly approaching petrol shortage

FYI, Brazil already has a piston aircraft that runs on ethanol made from sugar cane.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
oli80
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:10 pm

It is impossible to predict whether oil will destroy aviation (in my opinion). Who knows whether they will invent some sort of hybrid plane (like the Toyota Prius) that uses jet fuel for take off but cruises on batteries. Sounds silly now, but they once thought that the Earth was flat....

And as far as oil reserves go, yes, there are still reserves. But putting that aside, think about consumption. How many people live in China who don't own cars now, or maybe only own one? This figure is going to rise dramatically in the near future, and so will the demand for Oil. Look at the pipeline that has been agreed between Russia and China recently, this is just the start. And I haven't even touched on India yet...

Basically, what i'm trying to say is, that we can continue to suck our reserves dry, but our global consumption is going up at the same time. So it's all relative, and impossible to predict.
 
planemaker
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:18 pm

Quoting Oli80 (Reply 20):
Basically, what i'm trying to say is, that we can continue to suck our reserves dry, but our global consumption is going up at the same time. So it's all relative, and impossible to predict.

We will not suck our reserves dry because way before that point the price of oil will be high enough to make many alternative sources of energy profitable. Again, using Brazil as an example, their ethanol prices at the pump is currently cheaper than petrol (and that is without any government subsidies).

You may be interested in checking out this web site that is trying to pressure auto manufacturers to build plug-in hybrids. With existing technology it would be possible to get 100+ miles per gallon. They have already built one based on the Toyota Prius.

http://www.calcars.org/
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
oli80
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:30 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 21):
We will not suck our reserves dry because way before that point the price of oil will be high enough to make many alternative sources of energy profitable. Again, using Brazil as an example, their ethanol prices at the pump is currently cheaper than petrol (and that is without any government subsidies).

I didn't really mean it literally, more as a figure of speech. And yes, you are correct, there will be cheaper alternatives before we get anywhere near low-ish levels.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 21):
You may be interested in checking out this web site that is trying to pressure auto manufacturers to build plug-in hybrids. With existing technology it would be possible to get 100+ miles per gallon. They have already built one based on the Toyota Prius.

I definitely think that electric cars are a good idea. I haven't really got time to look at the page you selected (as i'm at work), and so consequently may look like a tool now, but, the only problem I see (and this is where i'm probably totally wrong) with 'plug-in' cars is that they are just shifting the problem to the generators. I don't know how much energy they consume at the wall, but i'm guessing that it's a fair bit.

I don't know the statistics, but I heard that a lot of pressure was put on power stations in the UK at half time during world cup football games in England, as everyone went to switch their kettle's on. So what it going to be like when everyone gets home from work at 17.00 and plugs their car in? Again, I stress, I could be way off here.
 
planemaker
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 8:46 pm

Quoting Oli80 (Reply 22):
the only problem I see (and this is where i'm probably totally wrong) with 'plug-in' cars is that they are just shifting the problem to the generators.

When you do have a chance to check it out, the web site addresses that issue.

Quoting Oli80 (Reply 22):
So what it going to be like when everyone gets home from work at 17.00 and plugs their car in? Again, I stress, I could be way off here.

No problem. For example, with 100+ miles/gallon you would not need to "fill-up" every night as the daily commuter driving average is 20-30 miles.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
lehpron
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RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

Fri Mar 24, 2006 9:02 pm

In the past, transportation did not come to a halt just because there was less fuel or technology; it evolved. From wood to coal to oil. From horse-drawn to stream-piston to gas-piston to turbojets. Just because we have been so used to oil-based transportation does not mean the future of it is in doubt.

We can change:
  • how we use the fuel

  • fuel source

  • engine system


  • For modern engines in ships and cars and airplanes; we have been spending R&D on the the first option like crazy -- its cheaper afterall. The latter two cost more from an infrastructure point of view (maintenance, training, environmental, where, when, who, etc). All the benifits are realized long-term, not short like a few decades. But they will postpone the inevitable. Question is, "Are we willing to take the risk to wait o long for the ROI?" That is really why nothing big is going on.
    The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
     
    Glareskin
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Fri Mar 24, 2006 9:09 pm

    Even if we reach the point that the natural oil sources are used there will be some alternatives. I'm no petrochemical expert but Diesel (gasoline) is close to Kerosine (jet fuel). And already, most modern diesel engines run perfectly on rape oil. I suspect it will be possible to refine a useable jet fuel from rape oil. This product is even better for the environment and enables third world to become an important energy supplier. Furthermore there is a clear tendency to re-introduce nuclear power for several applications. In other words: there is no doubt about the future of civil aviation but the question is which energy source will be used.
    There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
     
    art
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:22 pm

    Quoting Peterinlisbon (Thread starter):
    I believe that the decline of aviation is already beginning. Many large airlines have gone bankrupt, some have disappeared whilst others have been bailed out by the government. Many others are in poor financial health... Alitalia might collapse very soon, most of the big American airlines are at or close to bankruptcy.

    I don't think aviation is in decline. I do think that there are some shocks coming up: really expensive fuel, carbon taxes on fuel or emissions come to mind. It will be interesting to see which airlines have the flexibility to cope best.

    Large companies tend to respond to changing conditions very slowly. In a dynamic market, some will fail because of this. Some will adopt strategies that do no not come to fruition and will also fail. Some will take risks that will result in bankrupcy if they don't come good. Happens in all industries.

    Alitalia is a company whose culture of inertia in a changing world and whose poor management are responsible for its failure. If it made pasta, it would still be heading towards bankrupcy.

    Quoting Bond007 (Reply 5):
    If oil goes up in price, then the airlines need to increase the cost of the ticket to cover it. Airlines today are not good at charging what they need to in order to make a profit.

    Most notably in the US of A. Why they persist in this course of action is something of a mystery to me.
     
    sbworcs
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:36 pm

    Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 15):
    Anyone who says there's enough left for decades (or 480 years! hilarious!) is wrong. Too many oil companies are fudging the figures. And the alternatives are just not there. I saw a video report about the end of oil made for execs and government (and may be out on DVD later in the year for the public) and let me put it this way: there was a lot of footage of Amish people.

    The person you mentioned as saying there is 480 years of oil left was quoting source. Whilst i respect that you have a difference of opinion on this I would like to see your sources so that I can find out both sides of the arguments for myself and make my own informed decisions.

    Thanks

    Stephen
    The best way forwards is upwards!
     
    Glareskin
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Fri Mar 24, 2006 10:42 pm

    Quoting Art (Reply 26):
    Alitalia is a company whose culture of inertia in a changing world and whose poor management are responsible for its failure. If it made pasta, it would still be heading towards bankrupcy.

    In fact any airline that going to make pasta has a bad future prospect.... Big grin

    But your assessment is very good. LH is woed for it's gas-guzzling A340 fleet on this forum (why don't all airlines fly T7?) has this week announced a record high profit. Despite the sky high fual prices. Your point is taken: it's about bad airline management. And of course stiff LLC competition on domestic markets.
    There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
     
    Gr8Circle
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Sat Mar 25, 2006 12:26 am

    Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 15):
    Remember that in the, say, 70s (the first oil shock), the only countries using oil were the US and Canada, western Europe and maybe Japan.

    Uhhh.. where did you get this one....are you suggesting that in the 70's all other countries were using bullock carts? You're waaaaayyy off the mark on this one....
     
    cedarjet
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Sat Mar 25, 2006 2:08 am

    Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 29):
    Uhhh.. where did you get this one....are you suggesting that in the 70s all other countries were using bullock carts? You're waaaaayyy off the mark on this one....

    Yes, that's what I'm saying. India, China, Africa, most of South America and most of the rest of Asia were not at all industrialised. Yes, they were using bullock carts. Most still are. Only about half the world's population have ever made a phone call, and that's NOW. Just cos we had Grand Funk Railroad and 747s and Debbie Does Dallas in the 70s in the US, western Europe and Japan, doesn't mean the rest of the world (ie vast majority of humans) were industrialised. Bullock carts sounds about right.
    fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
     
    art
    Posts: 2670
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Sat Mar 25, 2006 2:21 am

    Quoting DL787932ER (Reply 16):
    The reality is that between a slowdown in speculation, abiotic sources, oil shale, and the trillions of barrels still available by natural means, we could have $20/bbl oil for the indeterminate future.

    I don't think you can sell oil at a price of $20 per barrel processing oil shales and tar sands and make a profit. At least not with today's technologies.
     
    Gr8Circle
    Posts: 2378
    Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:44 am

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Sat Mar 25, 2006 2:34 am

    Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 30):
    Yes, that's what I'm saying. India, China, Africa, most of South America and most of the rest of Asia were not at all industrialised. Yes, they were using bullock carts. Most still are. Only about half the world's population have ever made a phone call, and that's NOW. Just cos we had Grand Funk Railroad and 747s and Debbie Does Dallas in the 70s in the US, western Europe and Japan, doesn't mean the rest of the world (ie vast majority of humans) were industrialised. Bullock carts sounds about right.

    Opps, looks like you need help....from your comments it seems obvious that you're a typical 'head in the sand' westerner who knows nothing much about the rest of the world beyond the shores of your tiny little country.....my advice to you is that you go back to school....
     
    Tornado82
    Posts: 4662
    Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Sat Mar 25, 2006 2:40 am

    Quoting Babybus (Reply 12):

    Places like UAE have been gearing their economies for the oil running out for many years.

    Yeah, sure they have. How many planes has Emirates ordered lately? How big of an airport are they building?

    UAE geared their economy for THEIR oil to run out, not the world's oil. THEY had very limited supplies of their own compared to their other cartel neighbors. Nice attempt at spin though.
     
    planemaker
    Posts: 5411
    Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Sat Mar 25, 2006 5:26 am

    Quoting Art (Reply 31):
    I don't think you can sell oil at a price of $20 per barrel processing oil shales and tar sands and make a profit. At least not with today's technologies.

    That is not correct. Oil sands costs are currently running at $15 a barrel with "yesterday's technology" and is dropping as newer technologies and economies of scale come on stream. Anyhow, with with oil at over $60/barrel it is not an issue, is it?

    Tar sands production for many years had been considered cost-effective at $23 a barrel, and with improvements in exploration and extraction technologies, the price tipping point has fallen into the mid-teens, officials here say.

    http://www.eenews.net/specialreports/tarsands/sr_tarsands1.htm

    All one has to do is google oil sands and there is a huge amount of information from several sources... government, international agencies, news, etc.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/01/20/60minutes/main1225184.shtml

    http://www.oilonline.com/news/headli...siness/20060302.MSEV_com.20529.asp

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Venezuela/Oil.html

    Here is another link...

    We operate the world's only coal based synthetic fuels facility, producing liquefied petroleum gas from low grade coal.

    In industry, we provide premium fuels and lubricants that meet or exceed stringent specifications. We also produce jet fuel, fuel alcohol and illuminating kerosene.


    http://www.sasol.com/sasol_internet/...vigation.jsp?navid=600003&rootid=2

    Bottom line... We are not running out of fuel!

    Oil will only get more expensive but that will bring on alternatives such as more wind, solar, geothermal, bio-mass, etc, etc, etc. and their costs will go down dramatically as economies of scale and technological improvements increase with use. And the alternatives, coupled with increased efficiency and conservation could ironically, one day, push oil back down to $20 dollars a barrel.

    As I already posted, just take a look at Brazil... ethanol from suger cane is cheaper than gas (without any subsidies):

    Oil would have to fall to $35 (£20) a barrel to compete with ethanol in Brazil.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4715332.stm
    Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
     
    art
    Posts: 2670
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Sat Mar 25, 2006 5:38 am

    Quoting Planemaker (Reply 34):
    Quoting Art (Reply 31):
    I don't think you can sell oil at a price of $20 per barrel processing oil shales and tar sands and make a profit. At least not with today's technologies.

    That is not correct. Oil sands costs are currently running at $15 a barrel with "yesterday's technology" and is dropping as newer technologies and economies of scale come on stream. Anyhow, with with oil at over $60/barrel it is not an issue, is it?

    Thanks for the correction. And the links.
     
    cedarjet
    Posts: 8101
    Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Thu Mar 30, 2006 4:00 am

    Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 32):
    Opps, looks like you need help....from your comments it seems obvious that you're a typical 'head in the sand' westerner who knows nothing much about the rest of the world beyond the shores of your tiny little country.....my advice to you is that you go back to school....

    Oh man. I don't know why I feel the need to justify myself after such a nasty post but Mr "Gr8Circle" (if that is your real name), I clock up way over 100,000 miles a year and replace my passport every two years cos it's so full of stamps. I know the planet very well thank you. Travel broadens the mind and one way that has manifested itself, at least for me, is that it has taught me some manners and respect. I sincerely hope you one day have the same opportunities and learn some of the same lessons about how to interact positively with your fellow woman and man.

    I suspect your objections were to my claim that most of the world was in a pre-industrial state in the 70s, and I repeat: half the world's population, NOW, have never made a phone call. So how industrialised was the world outside the US, Canada, Western Europe and Japan a quarter of century ago? The answer is NOT AT ALL, and the comment made by someone else about bullock carts is, I believe, entirely accurate.
    fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
     
    peterinlisbon
    Posts: 842
    Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Thu Mar 30, 2006 11:03 am

    Although it might now be profitable to extract shale oil, another issue is capacity. When you look at charts of where oil is produced, Canada doesn't even appear because its contribution is so small. I think it doesn't even reach 1%. So I'm not sure that Canada alone is going to save the world. To make up for falling capacity in the rest of the world it would have to eventually produce a significant percentage of the world's oil and I don't think that's possible.

    The price to extract this oil depends not only on technology, but on the price (and availability) of natural gas. Large amounts of gas are used in extracting the oil, so to get all of that oil out of the ground Canada would have to first use all of its gas and then start importing. Eventually this would push up the price of gas and cause shortages, so then we would have another problem. Gas is set to peak 10 years after oil anyway and this would be accelerated if we start switching over or using it up in large amounts to get more oil.

    Also, although some of us might not care about environmental damage or consider the world's economy more important, there's no guarantee that the Canadians will be willing to devastate their country for the sake of the rest of us.

    Ethanol looks like an interesting and perhaps a more long-term solution, but then if you look at the main example, Brazil, you can see that it's quite a unique country. It has huge areas of farmland and just a few big cities down in the south-east corner. So they have plenty of land for the farms they need to make the ethanol. But in the USA or in Europe we don't have all of this space. Most of what we have is needed for agriculture.
     
    Tornado82
    Posts: 4662
    Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 10:19 am

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Thu Mar 30, 2006 11:08 am

    Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 37):
    But in the USA or in Europe we don't have all of this space. Most of what we have is needed for agriculture.

    Then why does the US have farm subsidies, which in effect are paying farmers to NOT farm their land, because of excess farm capacity diluting the commodity prices too far?

    Come to the US, get on Interstate 70, drive west of oh about Columbus, Ohio, and tell me what you see for about 900 of the next 1000 miles. Then drive I-35 from border patrol stand to border patrol, and tell me what you see there. Drive I-80 and I-40 too.
     
    cedarjet
    Posts: 8101
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Thu Mar 30, 2006 11:28 am

    Tornado82 is absolutely right, although the Yanks have completely decimated their public transport networks (literally, bought by car companies and shut down) and live in a suburbia entirely defined by the car, they can probably sustain their population by returning to an agrarian society and not starve - they have the real estate to grow a lot of food. That said, they ain't gonna be earning OnePass miles.
    fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
     
    Gr8Circle
    Posts: 2378
    Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:44 am

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Thu Mar 30, 2006 12:54 pm

    Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 36):
    I suspect your objections were to my claim that most of the world was in a pre-industrial state in the 70s, and I repeat: half the world's population, NOW, have never made a phone call. So how industrialised was the world outside the US, Canada, Western Europe and Japan a quarter of century ago? The answer is NOT AT ALL, and the comment made by someone else about bullock carts is, I believe, entirely accurate.

    You forget entirely, that the topic of the thread was about oil consumption and you ended up trying to say that if a country is not industrialised it does not consume oil....that was what I was saying was (and still is) ridiculous....and BTW I was born and brought up in India, so your multiple passports still don't give you a better understanding of the world outside (as was evident from your view of the 'non-industrialised' world)....
     
    Gr8Circle
    Posts: 2378
    Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:44 am

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Thu Mar 30, 2006 12:57 pm

    Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 36):
    I don't know why I feel the need to justify myself after such a nasty post but Mr "Gr8Circle" (if that is your real name),

    And I assume that 'Cedarjet' IS your real name Big grin Come on, 95% of members on this forum have assumed names.....
     
    B2707SST
    Posts: 1258
    Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 5:25 am

    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Thu Mar 30, 2006 1:38 pm

    Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 37):
    Although it might now be profitable to extract shale oil, another issue is capacity. When you look at charts of where oil is produced, Canada doesn't even appear because its contribution is so small. I think it doesn't even reach 1%. So I'm not sure that Canada alone is going to save the world. To make up for falling capacity in the rest of the world it would have to eventually produce a significant percentage of the world's oil and I don't think that's possible.

    Not correct. In 2004, Canada was the 8th largest oil producer in the world, running just behind Norway and China and ahead of Venezuela and Kuwait.

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables1_2.html

    Oil sands require significant energy input (mostly heat), but at least until recently, many remote fields were pumping natural gas back into the ground because it was too costly to pipe it out. If nat gas can be used closer to the source in oil sand extraction, the costs would drop further.


    The world is not running out of oil; we may be running out of cheap oil, but at prices around $100/barrel, it becomes profitable to extract petroleum from tar sands and also synthesize products from coal reserves, which are proven for hundreds of years at current usage. At still higher prices, substitute energy sources like solar, wind, fission, and even fusion research will become very attractive and we may well see most petrol-using vehicles and machinery converted to biofuel, electricity, or fuel cells running on electrolyzed hydrogen.

    Because of the critical importance of power-to-weight ratios in aviation, it will probably be one of the last industries to switch to some other energy source. Hydrogen has much lower energy content than kerosene by volume, and compressed or liquified hydrogen is very difficult to store. No batteries or fuel cells currently on the horizon have the energy density needed to power a high-subsonic aircraft for any meaningful length of time, and it would be difficult to recapture significant amounts of kinetic energy on descent. For the foreseeable future, it looks like jets will continue to burn kerosene.

    --B2707SST
    Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.
     
    planemaker
    Posts: 5411
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    RE: Does Civil Aviation Have A Future?

    Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:36 pm

    Quoting Peterinlisbon (Reply 37):
    When you look at charts of where oil is produced, Canada doesn't even appear because its contribution is so small. I think it doesn't even reach 1%.

    Why did you say, "when you look at the charts" when you obviously didn't even bother to?

    If some one wants to say that we are running out of energy, try to make a credible argument or link to a credible source!
    Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein

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