jacobin777
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British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:31 pm

interesting to see the planes listed, but at the end of the day, I doubt they will go with the A346 when the 777-300ER is available...but the 747-8 sounds very promising and its interesting to note that they are stating that they will not go for both the B747-8 and A380 (at this point in time)....

its also interesting to note that they are very interested in the 787-10 and 787-9

fair use excerpt...

"British Airways denied it is at an advanced stage of negotiations with Boeing to acquire up to 20 777-300ERs that would replace some early delivery 747s from 2008........The airline is considering all possible types, including the A380, A340-600 and 747-8, to replace its 747s, and the 787 or A350 to succeed the 767.............He also revealed it "very much pushed Boeing to produce the 747-8.""

full article at...

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=4356
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Molykote
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:42 pm

I read this as a positive for Boeing.
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jacobin777
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:56 pm

Quoting Molykote (Reply 1):
I read this as a positive for Boeing.

so do I, but obviously BA want to get the best deal out of Boeing, and it seems as if the A380 is out of contention with BA for now........

I think the 777-300ER and 747-8 will look amazing in Boeing colours, heck....I think all planes look amazing in Boeing colours... biggrin 


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flydreamliner
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:56 pm

I'm confused myself though, it doesn't seem to make much sense to be buying both 777-300ERs and 747-8's, unless you just wanted a few 747-8's for very high density routes. Honestly though, I don't see them buying A340 or A380. A350 I'm sure they'll give a good look at to replace 767, but the 787 may just have a slight advantage.
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manni
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:04 pm

Quoting Molykote (Reply 1):
I read this as a positive for Boeing.

BA is an airline that operates more than 100 Boeing widebody aircraft, including 42 777, and it is considering the A350, A346 and A380!?! This order is Boeings to loose to Toulouse  Wink Definitely not something the crowd in Seattle likes to hear. Airbus will do wathever possible to get this order, so will Boeing, and in the end if it goes to Boeing. Boeing will be happy if they can make money on the deal. If they take Airbus, publicity wise it will be a great deal for Airbus, but likely, as with Boeing, with marginal profit. Whichever manufacturer they will go for, one thing is already written in the stars... BA will get a great deal.
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ikramerica
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:07 pm

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
'm confused myself though, it doesn't seem to make much sense to be buying both 777-300ERs and 747-8's, unless you just wanted a few 747-8's for very high density routes. Honestly though, I don't see them buying A340 or A380. A350 I'm sure they'll give a good look at to replace 767, but the 787 may just have a slight advantage.

The 773ER+748i is completely consistent with statements from BA in the past months.

They have stated that they don't want to take delivery of planes until 2008 at the earliest. They did buy purchase rights to 773ERs from 2009, but that is not "advanced negotiations" just holding spots. The 748i won't EIS until 2011, so they are not forced to do the same thing there, and can announce a joint order later in the year for both types, converting those held 2009 slots for the 773ER to orders.

Further, they have stated that they are happy with the size of the 744, but since there is no direct replacement in the future for this plane, they will have to replace them with what is available.

2x744 = 1x773ER+1x748i. 380 is too big for them at this time, and that has been clear for quite a while based on their statements. As the dominant airline at LHR, they don't need the A380 for slot reasons. By giving up most of the Kangaroo to QF, they don't need the A380 for that. They don't need it for NRT as traffic is falling off on that route. Don't need it for South Africa. Don't need it for America, as they prefer to run 777s to 20 cities in North America and the Carribean vs. A380s to 3 airports. Don't need it for FRA or CDG. Maybe could use it for HKG and SIN, but honestly, the 748i will suit them fine as it offers modest growth over the 744s they run now.

In my opinion, the A380 is important for LHR for a lot of airlines as the market is defined. But not for BA.

So then you are talking about 748i instead, and the family familiarity the 773ER brings with the 772 compared to the 346, as well as the economic advantage, can't be ignored, even if the 773ER and 748i both only run GEs, BA will have to look past that.

I could only see them flying the 346 if they also take the 359. But I think the 748i is a given. And the 773ER is a good bet.
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jacobin777
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:07 pm

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
I'm confused myself though, it doesn't seem to make much sense to be buying both 777-300ERs and 747-8's, unless you just wanted a few 747-8's for very high density routes. Honestly though, I don't see them buying A340 or A380. A350 I'm sure they'll give a good look at to replace 767, but the 787 may just have a slight advantage.

actually, it makes very good sense, its a more conservative way to expand without overkill........

like EK says....."if you build the 787-10 we'll buy it" (IMHO-that is what they are saying to Boeing) I think BA is basically saying the same thing......

the A340 is definitely out and the A380 isn't looking too strong, especially if its true that "very much pushed Boeing to produce the 747-8." is true......

the A350 doesn't seem to be a strong contender...we'll see..
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RedChili
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:14 pm

The way that I read it, BA is saying that they will get three sizes of airplanes, and that the major choices will be between:
A380 or B748
A346 or B773ER
A350 or B789/-10
plus an option to add more B772s.

I was surprised to see that a major 777 operator like BA is considering the A346. I suppose that this part of the negotiations are more or less to be polite and consider the Airbus product alongside the Boeing product.

The following sentence from the article, "He also revealed it 'very much pushed Boeing to produce the 747-8,'" seems to indicate that the B748 has an edge over the A380 at BA.

At the same time, the following sentence, "He stressed, however, that the fleet renewal decision depends on... realization of a 10% operating margin in FY08," indicates that BA may wait until 2009 before choosing between the A380/B748 and A350/B787. But the 10 777-options will, of course, have to be decided before then, as those options are for delivery slots between 2008-2010.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 2):
I think the 777-300ER and 747-8 will look amazing in Boeing colours,

I suppose you mean BA colors.
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RedChili
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:19 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
They did buy purchase rights to 773ERs from 2009,

If you read the article, Boyle says clearly that these options are for any 777 model. He clearly denies that BA has any options specifically for the 773ER.
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thebry
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:36 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 7):
I was surprised to see that a major 777 operator like BA is considering the A346. I suppose that this part of the negotiations are more or less to be polite and consider the Airbus product alongside the Boeing product.

Either that, or they're taking the cash-back option Airbus has been offering. Lots of savings up front (sortof like US automotive manufacturers have done for years).

In my opinion, Boeing shouldn't be daunted by the prospect that BA is considering the A346 over the B773ER. It's got to be a bluff. BA can't possibly believe that having this inefficient beast (compared to the 777) in their livery will do much for profit (fuel, maintenance, etc.).

In my opinion, In the unlikely event BA does decide to go A346, they should lease them (of course forefeting the cash back offer).
 
jacobin777
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Rene

Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:53 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 7):
I was surprised to see that a major 777 operator like BA is considering the A346. I suppose that this part of the negotiations are more or less to be polite and consider the Airbus product alongside the Boeing product.

I'm sure you seriously don't think they would consider switching such a massive fleet...think of the costs associated with it, not to mention (mx, pilot retraining/hiring costs, ect), the 777-300ER is knocking the tails off of the A346 in sales (due to economics, etc.), and recent Airbus comments of the A340 possibly becoming a niche plane certainly doesn't exude a lot of confidence...but BA have to play their part...

Quoting RedChili (Reply 7):
I suppose you mean BA colors.

yes..thank you very much.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):

I could only see them flying the 346 if they also take the 359.

see above, too cost prohibitive, and if anything this argues well for the 787, as BA don't even need the early slots for the 787.......

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
Further, they have stated that they are happy with the size of the 744, but since there is no direct replacement in the future for this plane, they will have to replace them with what is available.



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 6):
actually, it makes very good sense, its a more conservative way to expand without overkill........



[Edited 2006-03-15 07:56:42]
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scotron11
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:24 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 7):

At the same time, the following sentence, "He stressed, however, that the fleet renewal decision depends on... realization of a 10% operating margin in FY08,

What he actually said was: however, the fleet renewal decision depends on the fulfillment of a "triple package" encompassing a successful conclusion to ongoing pension deficit negotiations, implementation of the £450 million ($777.2 million) in cost reductions outlined in the 2006-08 business plan and realization of a 10% operating margin in FY08. "If we don't make progress on all these topics, there will be no fleet expansion," he stated. "If we are not in a position to make the investment in confidence, we will not make the investment. We don't have the state willing to lend a helping hand, nor do we have Chapter 11 available to us."

I think the main one is the pension deficit. If they successfully work that one out, then they will probably "firm" up the options this year. Some reports say 10, this is the first I've heard of 20. Does anyone know how many 744's BA had delivered in 1989? And how many 767's delivered in 1990?
 
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:34 pm

Quoting Thebry (Reply 9):
n my opinion, Boeing shouldn't be daunted by the prospect that BA is considering the A346 over the B773ER. It's got to be a bluff. BA can't possibly believe that having this inefficient beast (compared to the 777) in their livery will do much for profit (fuel, maintenance, etc.).

BA's doing exactly what BA should be doing, playing both sides against each other. I don't think Airbus realistically has much of a chance, obviously BA isn't going to let that on to Boeing, even if it's quite obvious.
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RedChili
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 5:00 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 11):
I think the main one is the pension deficit. If they successfully work that one out, then they will probably "firm" up the options this year.

What you state here is not consistent with what he said. Boyle specifically said, "If we don't make progress on all these topics, there will be no fleet expansion," as you yourself also quoted. I cannot understand how they can manage to get a 10 percent operating margin for FY08 already this year.
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gkirk
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 5:11 pm

Personally, I think BA will stay Airbus for short haul, and Boeing for long haul.
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Carpethead
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 5:26 pm

Not to be overlooked is the fact that A346 wings are made in the UK, and RR engines on the A346. Same line of thought on the A380 as well. Though I am not sure how much of an effect 'homemade product' has within BA culture.
777s & 748s have nowhere near the UK-made content, but I would be curious what major UK suppliers are involved in both programs.
 
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 5:28 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 15):
Though I am not sure how much of an effect 'homemade product' has within BA culture.

Very little, I would guess. The A343 wings are also made in the UK but BA still chose 777s - and with GE rather than RR engines!
 
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:10 pm

Given that BA has a lot of pro-american influencial money men behind in from back of the grey old 1980s BA will never be seen dead ordering Airbus...it wouldnt do to upset our american friends.

The A320 is only there to prevent people saying it too loudly.

If I were Airbus, I'd publically withdraw and let Boeing screw BA on price... after all BA's never done Airbus any favours.
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gkirk
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:14 pm

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 17):
after all BA's never done Airbus any favours.

What about that rather large A320 family order?
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scotron11
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:52 pm

[

Quoting RedChili (Reply 13):

What you state here is not consistent with what he said. Boyle specifically said, "If we don't make progress on all these topics, there will be no fleet expansion,"

Yes, I know. But the main topic is their pension deficit. If, as reports indicate, BA can get some agreement later this month on that, then I see no reason for them to have to wait until 2008 to firm up this order. BTW, if Airbus is in the frame, why is their options for Boeings?
 
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:01 pm

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 18):
What about that rather large A320 family order?



Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 17):
The A320 is only there to prevent people saying it too loudly.

I don't agree with him but there's your answer.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:03 pm

Like you say - the A346 will be a long shot but lets cut through the rhetoric, and have a look at some of the facts that work in the A346s favour. For what its worth, I think she has a ten percent chance, no better.

Lets assume the A346HGW is the one on offer:

* Superior cargo uplift to the 773ER.

* Airbus need this deal, and BA can get an extremely attractive pricetag per airframe out of them for this reason - information on past deals shows that this has been a deal-maker in the past, because Airbus is able to undercut Boeing. We must assume the A346HGW will be available cheaper per airframe than the 773ER.

*Willie Walsh is a big Airbus man.

* The A346 is RR Trent 500 powered, and BA already have the MX, parts, and training infrastructure in place from the Trent 800s on the 777s. BA has the same in place for the GE90 as well, though.

* Whilst the 777 certainly has the edge in terms of crew commonality, the A346 needs only a short conversion from an Airbus A32X type rating, so its not totally unknown territory for them. BA seems to have an extremely good relationship with Airbus.

* No ETOPS restrictions on the type, so total freedom to use anywhere in the BA Network. Granted, BA dont have many ETOPS restricted routes, but its a small plus. The A346HGW has the range to do any current BA 744 route non-stop at MTOW.

* There is a (real or perceived) "Britishness/European-ness" about the A346 (the wings and engines mostly), and there may be a temptation to "buy from home" and to avoid any possible press fallout over a deal with the US. The US Government, and the US in general has never been so unpopular as they are here right now, and buying American may see some unwanted press reaction. Politically, buying American is quite sensitive, as if the press get hold of it and spin it badly, it will seem like more unwanted toadying up to the US, and BA could have a problem.

* Much as there will be intense political pressure from the US Government and various heads of trade and big business to buy Boeing, there will be similar pressure from this side of the Atlantic.

* Boeing will be fully expecting BA to go with the 773ER, and probably think that a BA order for the A346 is extremely unlikely. They may already regard this order as "in the bag" and Airbus could exploit this. They have done this before.

* The A346HGW, we are told, has improved performance over the baseline A346, and this will erode the advantages held by the 773ER. The A346HGW will never be a 773ER beater, but the HGW model will bring it closer than it is now, and the gap at present has been overstated on here by some.

* Airbus reportedly has a cashback scheme in place for the fuel burn misses. Stuff like this is music to shareholder's ears, as it means that the A346 has a guaranteed revenue if the initial fuel burn differential is written off.

* Many people believe the A346 is quieter and more comfortable in the cabin than the 777.

* The A346HGW is a far more mature beast that the overweight and MX-intensive early models, and the majority of the bugs and issues will have been ironed out. It seems to me that the A346 has been judged by the early issues it encountered, and the improvements made since then have been largely ignored. We must assume that the 2008-vintage A346HGW is an even more improved model.

* BA is about to place an order for a large number of Airbus narrowbodies. A combination deal, as Airbus has shown willingness in the past to do, looks likely to be offered. Indeed, many analysts, myself included, feel that BA will buy the A380 eventually, and including some earlier A380 delivery slot reservations free of charge, with a frozen price etc free of charge will be another sweetener, we feel.

* Airbus can supply the A346HGW as soon as BA want it, whereas the 777 line has very tight availability up to and including 2008 - everyone wants the 773ER and getting into the game late will mean supply issues.
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atmx2000
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:09 pm

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 17):
Given that BA has a lot of pro-american influencial money men behind in from back of the grey old 1980s BA will never be seen dead ordering Airbus...it wouldnt do to upset our american friends.

Well at least some of the orders BA made were linked to RR engines being made an option on Boeing frames. That appears to be the case with RR on the 757. Without that, the UK government might have had a much more difficult time nursing RR back to health.
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:10 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
BA is about to place an order for a large number of Airbus narrowbodies.

Really?! How large?

As for your detailed analysis of the possibility of BA buying the A346, I think there's a lot of truth is what you say. But, like you, I wouldn't bet my house on it!
 
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:16 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 23):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
BA is about to place an order for a large number of Airbus narrowbodies.

Really?! How large?

As for your detailed analysis of the possibility of BA buying the A346, I think there's a lot of truth is what you say. But, like you, I wouldn't bet my house on it

LGW Euro fleet to be replaced over the next few years. Its an open secret they will go for the A32X.

As for the A346 - no i wouldnt bet my house on it either. Like I said, it will be a tiny chance that Airbus can do something amazing but i'd be amazed if they did.

Anyway - the options are out on the 773ER so i'd be VERY surprised if they did go A346, but as I stated above, i could see why if they did order it.
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BestWestern
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:18 pm

Chris, as ever an excellent overview.

BA is probably the best run carrier globally, with a superb board and management team. They will make the decisions that are best for the company. Walsh is a firm believer of not complicating the business. At EI he took the short haul business from 4 aircraft types (F50, 146-1/300, 737-4/500, A320-321) to one, and saw significant gains from doing so.

At BA, he wont increase the amount of aircraft types. To me this points to him reducing the number of aircraft families in long haul to two.

IMHO, the BA future long haul fleet will look like this.

772 & 773 replacing the 763 and smaller 744 routes
A380 replacing the 744 on higher demand 744 routes

However, the 773 order is Boeings to lose - if they are too arrogant. The A380 order is Boeings to win. The 748 hasn't seen much demand (yet), and if they price this correctly, we could see a major order.
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:19 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 24):
LGW Euro fleet to be replaced over the next few years. Its an open secret they will go for the A32X.

OK. I hadn't heard that. 319s and 320s, I suppose. Any idea how many?
 
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:23 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 25):
772 & 773 replacing the 763 and smaller 744 routes
A380 replacing the 744 on higher demand 744 routes

However, the 773 order is Boeings to lose - if they are too arrogant. The A380 order is Boeings to win. The 748 hasn't seen much demand (yet), and if they price this correctly, we could see a major order

Totally agreed.
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atmx2000
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:34 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
* Superior cargo uplift to the 773ER

Would BA configure the A346 with the various lower lobe options like crew rests and lavs to increase cabin space? What would the cargo space be like with those options?

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
*Willie Walsh is a big Airbus man.

He's also a GE man.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
* There is a (real or perceived) "Britishness/European-ness" about the A346 (the wings and engines mostly), and there may be a temptation to "buy from home" and to avoid any possible press fallout over a deal with the US. The US Government, and the US in general has never been so unpopular as they are here right now, and buying American may see some unwanted press reaction. Politically, buying American is quite sensitive, as if the press get hold of it and spin it badly, it will seem like more unwanted toadying up to the US, and BA could have a problem.



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
* Much as there will be intense political pressure from the US Government and various heads of trade and big business to buy Boeing, there will be similar pressure from this side of the Atlantic.

If airlines in countries which have industrial participation in Airbus are pressured to buy Airbus, that will likely lead to a reciprocal reaction here in the US, with US airlines being pressured to buy Boeing.

But I do think that would remove one of the possible reasons that the US government hasn't done anything drastic regarding Bermuda II, like the UK did with the original Bermuda agreement when it renounced it in the 1970s.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
* Airbus can supply the A346HGW as soon as BA want it, whereas the 777 line has very tight availability up to and including 2008 - everyone wants the 773ER and getting into the game late will mean supply issues.

BA has secured 777 delivery slot options during after that time period, and BA doesn't seem inclined to take aircraft before 2008.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
* The A346HGW is a far more mature beast that the overweight and MX-intensive early models, and the majority of the bugs and issues will have been ironed out. It seems to me that the A346 has been judged by the early issues it encountered, and the improvements made since then have been largely ignored. We must assume that the 2008-vintage A346HGW is an even more improved model.

The HGW model is even heavier than the original model. Efficiency improvements would have to offset the weight gain. Otherwise all the HGW gains is range.
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BestWestern
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:48 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 28):
BA doesn't seem inclined to take aircraft before 2008.

BA will be moving to T5 at Heathrow before then. This is a massive task, and they will not be complicating it even further with new aircraft. They know what they are doing.
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gkirk
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:51 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 25):
IMHO, the BA future long haul fleet will look like this.

772 & 773 replacing the 763 and smaller 744 routes
A380 replacing the 744 on higher demand 744 routes

Agreed about the 772 and 773.
Disagree with the A380 though.

I think BA will probably go with what they are trying now, more frequency with smaller a/c.
Therefore I think 772 and 773 could possibly end up being the only long haul a/c in the BA fleet. Perhaps they will keep some 744s for a bit longer, but I don't see the A380 being added to the BA fleet.
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CHRISBA777ER
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 8:55 pm

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 30):
I think BA will probably go with what they are trying now, more frequency with smaller a/c.

The key issue as to why the US Majors are struggling.

I hope BA have taken note.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
BestWestern
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:01 pm

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 30):
I think BA will probably go with what they are trying now, more frequency with smaller a/c.

With what Heathrow Slots?

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 30):
more frequency with smaller a/c

This works on high density short routes (Including the relatively short JFK LHR), but BA have many routes that dont need high frequency, such as Asia, Africa and West Coast USA. These routes just need capacity. Ten years out, which is better for BA, a small capacity increase from the 744 to 748, or the larger capacity increase from the 744 to the 380.
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
atmx2000
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:04 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 31):
The key issue as to why the US Majors are struggling

The key reason why US majors are suffering is high levels of domestic competition coupled with high fuel prices and high labor prices leaving little room. US majors are finding profits on international routes even with smaller aircraft.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
BestWestern
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:19 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 33):
US majors are finding profits on international routes even with smaller aircraft

This is yet to be prooven. Margins on intercontinental routes for north american carriers are wafer thin at the moment.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 33):
high levels of domestic competition coupled with high fuel prices and high labor prices leaving little room

Smaller jets, which are more crew intensive, have a higher CASM, and increase competition make the matter worse. They also need a lot more airline and airport infrastructure to pay for them. When frequency is not needed, which is more infrastructure hungry 3 x CRJ, or 1x 738... on a bigger scale, which is more infrastructure hungry - 20 x772's or 10 A380's?
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
Concorde001
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:19 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 32):
With what Heathrow Slots?

By 2010/2011 LHR should begin mixed mode runway operations which will free up many slots - about a 20% increase! Though BA won't get all of them or even half.
 
jonathan-l
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:33 pm

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 18):
Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 17):
after all BA's never done Airbus any favours.

What about that rather large A320 family order?

How about aircraft merit?
 
gkirk
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 9:40 pm

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 36):
How about aircraft merit?

The B73G and A320 family are on the same level of merit, so lets not try go down that road  Wink

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 32):
With what Heathrow Slots?

I could see them decreasing frequency on domestic flights to ABZ,GLA,EDI,NCL and MAN, which would free up slots for extra frequencies.
I suppose if they got the 787, then they could actually transfer some more long hauls to LGW, such as the Barbados flights and perhaps a MIA and JFK flight.
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
gkirk
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:15 pm

I should add, IMO, I don't think we will see BA order any new long haul a/c until T5 is well up and running, the 744s and 772s aren't that old yet anyway.
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:19 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
The 748i won't EIS until 2011,

Sept 2009 according to the Boeing web site.

Also Boeing are working at achieving significant noise reduction on the 747-8 which has to be of great interest to BA and their LHR operations.
 
FLALEFTY
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 10:32 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 11):
"If we are not in a position to make the investment in confidence, we will not make the investment. We don't have the state willing to lend a helping hand, nor do we have Chapter 11 available to us."

I think that about sums it up!

BA already has a modern fleet, so they are really in no rush to make a decision. When they are ready to buy (and that is looking like 2008 or 2009 reading between the lines of that article), Boeing and/or Airbus will bend over backwards to give them a great deal and good delivery positions.
 
vv701
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:00 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 32):
Quoting Gkirk (Reply 30):
more frequency with smaller a/c

This works on high density short routes (Including the relatively short JFK LHR), but BA have many routes that dont need high frequency, such as Asia, Africa and West Coast USA. These routes just need capacity.

You only have to look at how BA configure their long haul aircraft cabins to see that they are not interested in 'just capacity'. The only BA routes where capacity is king are LHR-HKG-LHR anf LHR-JNB-LHR. Otherwise BA are focused on premium class traffic. So if they could reduce their 4-class long haul cabins to three classes (and, of course, fill all three) they probably would (and it would not be the First, Club World or World Traveller Plus cabins that would go.)

Quoting Concorde001 (Reply 35):
By 2010/2011 LHR should begin mixed mode runway operations which will free up many slots - about a 20% increase! Though BA won't get all of them or even half.

20 per cent is a bit high but just about THEORETICALLY possible. In PRACTICAL terms the picture is very different. With about the current 470,000 annual movements the only increase possible is about 2 per cent to the 480,000 restriction conditionally imposed by the planning permission to build T5. If this 480,000 figure were to be breached BAA would be open to all sorts of court action.
 
ChiGB1973
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:11 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Lets assume the A346HGW is the one on offer:

* Superior cargo uplift to the 773ER



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
The A346HGW will never be a 773ER beater, but the HGW model will bring it closer than it is now, and the gap at present has been overstated on here by some.

I think it would be more appropriate to compare the 346HGW with the 747-400 or -800 than with the 773.

Quoting PM (Reply 26):
OK. I hadn't heard that. 319s and 320s, I suppose. Any idea how many?

How come this A319/320 order is in the bag for Airbus, yet when you talk about wide-bodies, "it is Boeing's to lose?" Maybe the narrow-body is Airbus's to lose. Airbus thinks they have it in the bag and Boeing swoops in and pulls an Airbus move. I just wonder why the narrow-body is a gimme, yet the arguments for the wide-body are ongoing?

M
 
Glom
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:12 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
* There is a (real or perceived) "Britishness/European-ness" about the A346 (the wings and engines mostly), and there may be a temptation to "buy from home" and to avoid any possible press fallout over a deal with the US. The US Government, and the US in general has never been so unpopular as they are here right now, and buying American may see some unwanted press reaction. Politically, buying American is quite sensitive, as if the press get hold of it and spin it badly, it will seem like more unwanted toadying up to the US, and BA could have a problem.



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
* Airbus reportedly has a cashback scheme in place for the fuel burn misses. Stuff like this is music to shareholder's ears, as it means that the A346 has a guaranteed revenue if the initial fuel burn differential is written off.

It would be worse if the press got wind of Airbus subsidising BA to pollute more than they need to.
 
jacobin777
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:25 pm

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 17):
If I were Airbus, I'd publically withdraw and let Boeing screw BA on price... after all BA's never done Airbus any favours.

that would be asinine......one never knows what happens, and BA do have a large Airbus fleet (albeit its short-haul)...regardless....if Airbus can Boeing to sell those planes for very cheap, then its a win for Airbus, as it hurts Boeings sales and profit margins..

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Superior cargo uplift to the 773ER.

"superior"  confused .

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Airbus need this deal, and BA can get an extremely attractive pricetag per airframe out of them for this reason - information on past deals shows that this has been a deal-maker in the past, because Airbus is able to undercut Boeing. We must assume the A346HGW will be available cheaper per airframe than the 773ER.

Airbus "needed" other deals, such as CX, EK....and they gave their response...

The undercutting only goes so far..........even the supposed "money back" from the A340's isn't instilling too much confidence....

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Willie Walsh is a big Airbus man.

where did you get that from? EI has a large Airbus fleet? Airbus gave them a great deal with financing, price, mx, etc. and EI never had a large fleet to begin with, so it was easy for Walsh/EI to go basically all-Airbus...complete misconception that Walsh is an "Airbus" man..

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Whilst the 777 certainly has the edge in terms of crew commonality, the A346 needs only a short conversion from an Airbus A32X type rating, so its not totally unknown territory for them. BA seems to have an extremely good relationship with Airbus.

and what about all those 777 pilots? retrain them? fire them? change the pay scale for all the A320 pilots? wouldn't it just be easier to add some B777's pilots and adjust the pay scale for the other 777 pilots instead of all the ideas you have??

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
There is a (real or perceived) "Britishness/European-ness" about the A346 (the wings and engines mostly), and there may be a temptation to "buy from home" and to avoid any possible press fallout over a deal with the US.

there is nothing real or perceived "Britishness/European-ness" about the A346.....99% of the people have no clue on what they are flying on, not to mention, for most, its "oh.its a jumbo jet"...thats about it.........and I wouldn't be surprised if people start calling the A380 a "jumbo jet also"

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Politically, buying American is quite sensitive, as if the press get hold of it and spin it badly, it will seem like more unwanted toadying up to the US, and BA could have a problem.

BA is a private company, with stock listed in the various stock exchange..if there is any Airline company who doesn't listen to politics, is certainly BA......

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Boeing will be fully expecting BA to go with the 773ER, and probably think that a BA order for the A346 is extremely unlikely. They may already regard this order as "in the bag" and Airbus could exploit this. They have done this before.

Boeing has a new sales team, this isn't the same sales team of yesteryear..they are very aggressive and don't take anything as "in the bag"...

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
The A346HGW, we are told, has improved performance over the baseline A346, and this will erode the advantages held by the 773ER. The A346HGW will never be a 773ER beater, but the HGW model will bring it closer than it is now, and the gap at present has been overstated on here by some.

"we are told".......why go for a plane where the 1)proof isn't in the pudding 2) there is an established competing plane (of which they have 43 of already)

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 25):
Chris, as ever an excellent overview.

.....never mind the 95% other probability of BA not going with the A346.... sarcastic 

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 25):
The A380 order is Boeings to win.

is that why Walsh previously stated that they would go with a dozen A380's if they even go with it? and

" also revealed it "very much pushed Boeing to produce the 747-8."" doesn't instill too much confidence in me, does it to you?

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
BA is about to place an order for a large number of Airbus narrowbodies. A combination deal, as Airbus has shown willingness in the past to do, looks likely to be offered. Indeed, many analysts, myself included, feel that BA will buy the A380 eventually, and including some earlier A380 delivery slot reservations free of charge, with a frozen price etc free of charge will be another sweetener, we feel.

the A380 isn't selling like hot potatos.....if (big if) do decide to purchase the A380, getting the slots isn't too big of a problem..

but to contradict your point, the 777-300ER is selling like hot pancakes, thus BA made a choice to reserve some slots......

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Airbus can supply the A346HGW as soon as BA want it, whereas the 777 line has very tight availability up to and including 2008 - everyone wants the 773ER and getting into the game late will mean supply issues.

BA isn't getting any planes soon...and they already have the slots now for the 777-300ER (when the need the planes)..so your point is rather moot..
"Up the Irons!"
 
gkirk
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:27 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 44):
BA isn't getting any planes soon..

Wrong  Wink
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
krisyyz
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:32 pm

Boeing for up to 10 777s for delivery from the end of 2008 through to 2010," Planning Director Robert Boyle told ATWOnline yesterday, noting that at this point there is no preference for the dash 300ER. "The agreement does not specify which type. We can do this at a later date closer to the exercising of the options," he said.

If Boeing successfully gets the ETOPS 330 min rating for the B773ER, BA will have little use or advantage for the A346. Honestly, I think BA is only considering A346 to be fair and nice.

I can't see why BA would order more B772s, The B773ER is far above its older sibling in performance and economics. Plus, a large B777 order would signal the advantage of the B747-8 as it relates to commonalty issues.

KrisYYZ
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Wed Mar 15, 2006 11:37 pm

Jacobin - agree with most of what you say - I was just trying to provide the other side of the argument.

A-net gets very boring with a lot of "BA must buy Boeing because its better" threads.

Its good to look at things from all angles surely?

I could go through and argue the cut over all the contentious issues there but i dont have the time. We all know the issues - its been done a million times before.

I've looked at it, same as you, and am delighted BA appear to have gone for the 777-300ER. The A340-600 will have been looked at more closely than people on here would like to believe, and i've stated why that will have been the case.

Like you say, its all moot, because the 777-300ER was and is the clear favourite and the superior type.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
timboflier215
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Renewal

Thu Mar 16, 2006 12:45 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 47):
I've looked at it, same as you, and am delighted BA appear to have gone for the 777-300ER. The A340-600 will have been looked at more closely than people on here would like to believe, and i've stated why that will have been the case.

exactly. BA will be looking at all angles before 'just' signing for boeing. no-one spends billions of pounds lightly, its a massive investment, and to think that BA, or any other airline, would not look seriously at every alternative is just silly!
 
jacobin777
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RE: British Airways Clarifies Long-haul Fleet Rene

Thu Mar 16, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 45):
Wrong  Wink

I don't follow..... confused 

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 47):
Jacobin - agree with most of what you say - I was just trying to provide the other side of the argument.



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 47):

Like you say, its all moot, because the 777-300ER was and is the clear favourite and the superior type.

got ya.... checkmark ....... Smile
"Up the Irons!"