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PanAm_DC10
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China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 11:31 am

China Airlines Chairman Mr Philip Wei has stated during an interview that they wish to modernise and simplify their fleet on 3 types only. Initially they wish to dispose of their A300s and standardise on the A333, B738 & B744. By modernising their fleet and initiating a process of simplification they wish to reduce maintenance and crew costs.

After this, He has also stated thet they need a larger capacity aircraft for U.S. and European routes, seating greater than 400 PAX.

Fair use excerpt;

The airline needs aircraft that can carry more than 400 passengers each, the so-called jumbo aircraft, to fly on long- haul routes to the U.S. and Europe, Wei said.

``Now it's the time for us to consider a modern jumbo fleet for the next generation,'' he said. China Airlines will choose between the 555-seat Airbus A380 and a passenger version of Boeing's 747-8 design, he said, declining to say when a decision will be made.


[END - Fair use excerpt - http://www.bloomberg.com ]

They will not dispose of their 744s, instead they will convert all existing PAX versions inot 744BCF's Mr Wei states that they will then have one of the largest 744 Freighter fleets in the world by the time they have simplified their fleet.

Report leads me to ask the following. If they wish to simplify on 3 types as mentioned above, it would be 4 if they chose the A380.

Also, they own Mandarin don't they? Is this an indication they'll go for the 73G or 738 for the RFP that Mandarin Airlines currently have?

Finally, this is not a case of another carrier considering the A380 or 748-I as an RFP has been issued. Unfortunately I cannot link to the source for the RFP requirement or when it was issued.

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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KL808
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 11:38 am

It seems to me that the B748 would fit better since it would have a lot of commonality with the rest of the 747 fleet.

This will be a tough contest and I don't believe this will be a clear cut order. Though I believe the B748 will fit better, don't discount the A380.

I think Price will be the biggest factor.

Earlier in the year Airbus said that they are in talks with 2 asian carriers. CI was definetly one of them, so we'll just wait and see.

Will politics be involved? If so, I would conclude that the B748 will be the winner.

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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 11:45 am

Time will tell but they have clearly stated that they are clearly interested in both. Although I don't believe that as the decision will have been made this release was made for the benefit of price negotiations with the manufacturers.

Boeing need a passenger customer for 748 and Airbus need some momentum back after stalling in A380 sales: Benefactor=CI at the negotiating table.

If its a big order then both will be desperate to land this one. This could go either way thats for sure

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trex8
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:33 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter):
They will not dispose of their 744s, instead they will convert all existing PAX versions inot 744BCF's Mr Wei states that they will then have one of the largest 744 Freighter fleets in the world by the time they have simplified their fleet.

interesting, this will really mess up their average fleet age which they are keen to keep very low since the 742 crash in 2002,, though they could fudge it by not including the freighters

Quoting KL808 (Reply 1):
Will politics be involved? If so, I would conclude that the B748 will be the winner.

if you think the Taiwan government will put pressure on CI to buy Boeing as it has previously, it won't happen this time, not with the present administration anyway. Boeing in various ways in the last few years ,which has been previously discussed in other threads, has bent over backwards to appease Beijing and in the process insult the Taiwanese government. Boeing has decided that its commercial airplanes dealings with mainland China take precedence over any with Taiwan or integrated defence systems sales to Taiwan.
 
UALMMFlyer
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 3:04 pm

Interesting news. Doesn't CI has a relatively new fleet of A340-300? Are they going to be phased out so soon?

IIRC, CI signed a MOU for a substantial order of 777s, then chose the A340 when politics got in the way.

It is hard to tell which way CI is going to go, but I am surprised that they are not considering the 787/A350 and 777/A346?
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zeke
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:02 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter):
Also, they own Mandarin don't they? Is this an indication they'll go for the 73G or 738 for the RFP that Mandarin Airlines currently have?

AFAIK AE has two leased aircraft from ILFC. Not sure about CI, they also had 2x320s at one stage. The CI 738 fleet age is above the fleet average, oldest 11-98.

Quoting KL808 (Reply 1):
It seems to me that the B748 would fit better since it would have a lot of commonality with the rest of the 747 fleet.

This will be a tough contest and I don't believe this will be a clear cut order. Though I believe the B748 will fit better, don't discount the A380.

Very true, depends on how they want to split it up. They may like to keep the long haul pilot pool across just the 747 fleet (be 45+ frames), or do what they can do at the moment with MFF between the 330/340 with the 330/340/380 (30+ frames) and 744 (30+ frames), or possibly a 320/330 group 340/380 group, and 744 group.
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FCKC
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:27 pm

I have exactly the same questions that UALMMflyer.

If they wish to standardise their fleet with only 3 types (738 , 744 , 330) , so they will sell their A340-300s , and will go 747-8.
In this case , are we sure 747-8 can do the job for ALL long haul routes they have ? I do not think so.Probably it is too big for some of them , thus i think they need a 787/A350 category plane.
If they wish to get a 3 types fleet as they said , why not in the future a fleet like this.

- 738 (then new next generation narrow body to be launched , and enter service around 2012)
- A350 (replacing A330s and for thin long haul routes)
- 747-8/744BCF (Are they sure they will not need a bigger plane in the future that 747-8 for huge density routes).

Just a though.
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 7:12 pm

The US "protects" the Taiwanese from any perceived threat from the PRC, and Europe doesnt.

Thats for another thread - but it seems there is scope for political pressure to be applied if Boeing are in danger of losing the order.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 7:28 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 7):
The US "protects" the Taiwanese from any perceived threat from the PRC

While this has certainly been true in the past, the US seems to be less "interested" in Taiwan these days. A cynic might suggest that the PRC represents a vastly larger market for US goods and services than does Taiwan. Sadly for the Taiwanese, the mighty $ rules.
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trex8
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 7:46 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 7):
but it seems there is scope for political pressure to be applied if Boeing are in danger of losing the order.

there is scope in any commerical transaction for political pressure

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8):
A cynic might suggest that the PRC represents a vastly larger market for US goods and services than does Taiwan

this is exactly what has happened and Boeing are in the doghouse both in the Presidential residence and Ministry of National Defense in Taipei.

I can see the A343s gone by the time A350/787s are readily available and given they will still be taking A330s in the next 2 years, the A350 must have the upper hand.
CI has been rumored at various times to be a potential A380F customer.
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Fri Mar 17, 2006 8:11 pm

Thats going to be a beautiful looking A380 if they do order it.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sat Mar 18, 2006 9:49 am

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter):
The airline needs aircraft that can carry more than 400 passengers each, the so-called jumbo aircraft, to fly on long- haul routes to the U.S. and Europe, Wei said.

This would seem to bode well for the A380. I'd love to see the 748i with CI, but if they need planes larger than 400 pax, that would give the nod to the A380 IMO.
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sat Mar 18, 2006 10:09 am

Interestingly, there have been several articles in the Taiwanese press.

Airbus Director of Product Marketing for the A380, Richard Carcaillet, came to Taiwan recommending the A380 for EVA Air and China Airlines on the TPE-LAX route.

Both airlines said that they currently have no plans to purchase the aircraft, however, they are continuing to evalute the aircraft.
 
elvis777
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sat Mar 18, 2006 10:51 am

Hello SCBRIML,

I do not agree with your statement. Although it is clear that PRC has more economic clout thanTaiwan I have not detected a shift in the policy of the US towards Taiwan. In other words afaik any military intervation towards Taiwan would call for direct intervention by our military. Unless I have missed something. do you have a reference where I can look this up?

Peace

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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sat Mar 18, 2006 12:28 pm

I think CI will be leery of buying the A380-800 unless Airbus can prove the plane at 560T MTOW can actually fly 8,000 nautical miles still-air range. If Airbus achieves that goal expect a lot of new orders for the plane to come.

At 8,000 nm still-air range, the A388 would allow airlines like SQ to fly from SFO to HKG on a full pax/cargo load almost year-round and CI to fly LAX-TPE on a full pax/cargo load essentially year-round with this plane.
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sat Mar 18, 2006 4:55 pm

If there is not a clear winner on merits between the 748 and the A380, politics will decide the winner. The U.S. 7th fleet has prevented PRC from taking Taiwan for 50 years. If the PRC attacks Taiwan, no chance Europe would stop them. IMHO, all things being equal the 748 will be the choice. Same logic with El Al.
 
slz396
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sat Mar 18, 2006 6:19 pm

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 15):
The U.S. 7th fleet has prevented PRC from taking Taiwan for 50 years. If the PRC attacks Taiwan, no chance Europe would stop them.

So you still think the US would stop them, do you?

15 years ago, I would have agreed with you,
5 years ago, I would have said it is likely
today, I say you're wrong.

China has become an economic superpower nobody can be out of though with, and has built itself a military too strong to risk a fight with.

Sure, the US military would still be able to throw the Chinese back to the mainland if they were to take the island, but then what? For a subsequent invasion and occupation of the PRC the US army just isn't strong nor big enough and stopping after Taiwan is liberated would mean the US faces a cold war with the largest economic market in the world for the next XX years!

Bye bye 150 737s, don't-know-how-many 787s and all other orders for Boeing planes, not to mention future sales and what about other businesses like cars, software etc etc....???

Luckily, the ideology of the PRC has changed and although the rhetoric is still there, they are not really planning on invading Taiwan, because all the US would/could do is stand by and look at them taking the island back and not even 7 7th fleets would prevent them from doing so...
 
trex8
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 15):
If there is not a clear winner on merits between the 748 and the A380, politics will decide the winner. The U.S. 7th fleet has prevented PRC from taking Taiwan for 50 years. If the PRC attacks Taiwan, no chance Europe would stop them. IMHO, all things being equal the 748 will be the choice. Same logic with El Al.

you are missing several factors, first, the perceived personal insults Boeing has inflicted on the present Taiwanese administration in the last several years (the cancellation of the VPs visit at the last minute to Everett) and its reluctance to be seen by Beijing as doing anything to help the Taiwan military unless specifically ordered by the DoD (failure to talk about industrial cooperation over the AH64D). Whereas other major US defense contractors are still tripping over themselves to do business in Taipei - the contracts are potentially, large, lucrative, they pay cash and don't want every piece of the work outsourced over there. In the past any major CI order would have seen the head of the AIT (the defacto US embassy in Taipei) call the Taiwanese presidential palace and a call would have gone to the CI board. That is far less likely to happen today and CI are probably free to make as commercial a decision as they have ever been able to, free of political interference.
Also it would be quite easy for the Taiwanese to order European and claim US workers are getting significant job benefits, eg a A380 with Engine Alliance engines order may provide more US sourced work than say a 787 order with Rolls! As it is, the AFL- CIO deem Taiwanese military orders far more useful to US workers/industry than comparably valued NATO/Aus/Japan contracts due to the lower industrial offsets that Taiwan expects - only 30% whereas all the others want more than 100% routinely.
It is also unclear exactly how future US adminitsrations will view the US commitment to Taiwan. The Taiwan Relations Act, which is US domestic legislation, only commits the US to "provide arms for the defense" of Taiwan. It never implicitly commits to the US coming to the defense of Taiwan. Though I wouldn't be surprised the US would, it is not a formal or even informal agreement/understanding. GWB has said he will do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan but the next President may not and who knows whether he would anyway given his even more recent history towards Taiwan. The present administration has slammed the Taiwan president for cancelling the national uunification council and have prevented the USAF from launching the 3rd Taiwan satellite if it has a ROC flag painted on it!
 
trex8
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:31 am

some more details - interesting that JFK, FRA, ROM and IAH aren't doing well
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2006/03/18/2003298011
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sun Mar 19, 2006 2:24 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
So you still think the US would stop them, do you?

I have no idea what the U.S. would do. Taiwan is defenseable if it does not go nuclear. It would takes ships to make a succesfull invasion. Smart weaponry would sink **everything** crossing the straight.

I do know this, the U.S. might help out, but Europe would definetly do nothing, except maybe re-arm PRC.
 
alexchao
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sun Mar 19, 2006 4:05 am

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 18):
some more details - interesting that JFK, FRA, ROM and IAH aren't doing well

I wonder how the Seattle route is doing?
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:08 am

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 18):
some more details - interesting that JFK, FRA, ROM and IAH aren't doing well
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/...98011

Interesting article. I'm guessing they will go for 748 for the following reasons;

1. If PAX numbers are falling, why add more seats?
2. If you are trying to decrease types of aircrafts why add a new one?
3. If you want a young fleet, my guess is the 748 conversion makes more sense than the A380 conversion or resale
4. I know this is not scientific, but when I have flown to Taipei (from SFO) during Holidays or Chinese New Year all seats sold out, but other times of year seats available. Adding more seats would probably force EVA to also buy A380, and than every bodies revenue falls down. Profits are maximum when aircraft seats are sold out and passengers start to "bid" for seats.
 
trex8
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:41 am

I just realised the article does not count the A340 as a "3rd type" but must have for the "6 types" used previously. So what will replace it?

Also if they are starting to go to CTS, maybe they could use that as a stepping stone to flights to US east coast. The distance is almost exactly the same TPE-CTS - US east coast as via ANC. This would save the hassle of ANC stops with little traffic originating there while providing capacity to CTS. Only thing is would a 3000m runway at CTS be sufficient for east bound flights for a fully loaded A343 or even 744? Its 5500nm to JFK.
 
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sun Mar 19, 2006 7:49 am

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 21):
Adding more seats would probably force EVA to also buy A380,

Only thing is that EVA have stated that the 773ER is to replace all 747s for their longhaul requirement, which seems to rule out the A380 for them. Their 747s are all to be converted to Freighters.

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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trex8
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Sun Mar 19, 2006 11:07 pm

 
zvezda
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:09 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 14):
I think CI will be leery of buying the A380-800 unless Airbus can prove the plane at 560T MTOW can actually fly 8,000 nautical miles still-air range. If Airbus achieves that goal expect a lot of new orders for the plane to come.

There is no way the WhaleJet will have 8000nm still-air range at 560T. At 560T, the current WhaleJet won't fly more than about 6500nm without a tailwind. Airbus could probably spend another $2-3B or so and get the still-air range up to 7000nm. 8000nm at 560T? Only by substituting most of the cargo capacity with fuel tanks.
 
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zeke
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:43 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 25):
There is no way the WhaleJet will have 8000nm still-air range at 560T. At 560T, the current WhaleJet won't fly more than about 6500nm without a tailwind. Airbus could probably spend another $2-3B or so and get the still-air range up to 7000nm. 8000nm at 560T? Only by substituting most of the cargo capacity with fuel tanks.

Flight International 14-20 feb A380 vs the warmed over Dumbojet had the A380 with a greater range over the Dumbojet. Also said that Randy agrees that the A380 had the aerodynamic efficiency advantage over the Dumbojet.

The ranges listed in FI were A380-800 - 15000 km, Dumbojet - 14800 km, A380-800F 10400 km, Dumbojet-F 8280 km.

Also indicated for the same range that for a 150t payload in the A380, the Dumbojet would take 113t.

Do you have a source for your quote above ?
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rolfen
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:55 am

Well d'uh! You might as well title the thread:
"China Airlines to buy either Boeing or Airbus"
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zeke
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:00 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 26):
the current WhaleJet won't fly more than about 6500nm without a tailwind

Should have also mentioned that the A380 has already done sectors over 6500 nm as part of its Australian tour.
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leelaw
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 2:05 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 28):
Should have also mentioned that the A380 has already done sectors over 6500 nm as part of its Australian tour.

But with what kind of payload, were the water tanks on MSN001 & MSN004 filled to the brim on the Australian and Asian Aerospace tours ?
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zvezda
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 3:00 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 29):

But with what kind of payload, were the water tanks on MSN001 & MSN004 filled to the brim on the Australian and Asian Aerospace tours ?

Exactly. There is no doubt that the WhaleJet can fly 8000nm through still-air with full fuel and a minimal payload. The question was the range at 560T. That will be about 6500nm unless additional fuel capacity is fitted. Airlines don't make purchase desicions based on ferry range.
 
atmx2000
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 3:12 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 30):
Exactly. There is no doubt that the WhaleJet can fly 8000nm through still-air with full fuel and a minimal payload. The question was the range at 560T. That will be about 6500nm unless additional fuel capacity is fitted. Airlines don't make purchase desicions based on ferry range.

Minimal payload? I thought it could fly 8000nm with design payload.
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vincewy
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 3:18 am

If CI or BR ever order A380s, their primary interests will be for cargo, I've mentioned a few articles earlier that CI is very interested in A380F, it can carry 150 metric tons of cargo compared to 125 tons on 744F with the same fixed cost. However, neither BR nor CI are early adopters of any aircraft (look at how long it took for BR to order 777) and it'd be wise for them to see how this aircraft performs by other airlines before throwing money around.

CI will probably have 3 types of fleet, 737-800, A330/A340, 744, an order of 748/A380 will be large (CI has 16 747F alone) and will gradually replace all their 744s.

BR's fleet, in the short term will look like this, A330 for regional, 2nd tier long- hauls, 777 for main long-huals (they should forget about 772, use only 773ER) with 747 been phased out. Once 744F need replacement (it will be quite a while), they will probably be looking at A380F, especially since BR's ultimate goal is becoming a major cargo carrier and they're looking at expansion, they could order A380 mostly freighters, just a few (3-4) for TPE-LAX, TPE-HKG along with them.
 
jacobin777
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 3:20 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 31):

Minimal payload? I thought it could fly 8000nm with design payload.

nopes.......even SQ puts its around 7000nm (which to me means somewhere in the 6800-6900nm range).....
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trex8
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 3:27 am

Quoting Vincewy (Reply 32):
(look at how long it took for BR to order 777)

but they were the first 772LR customer and one of the early 773ER customers.
 
zvezda
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 3:41 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 31):
Minimal payload? I thought it could fly 8000nm with design payload.

What do you mean by "design payload"? Airbus are claiming 8000nm with 555 passengers, their bags and no cargo. That depends on an OEW that is about 20,000 lbs. lighter than the lightest cabin configuration any airline will actually install. LH and SQ have both calculated that with their planned OEWs (with the cabins that they will actually use, not the theoretical Airbus feather-light cabin), that real-world range (allowing for headwinds on typical routes) with the 480 or so passengers for which they will fit seats, plus their baggage, will be 6800-7000nm.
 
alexchao
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:22 am

Quoting Vincewy (Reply 32):
BR's fleet, in the short term will look like this, A330 for regional, 2nd tier long- hauls, 777 for main long-huals (they should forget about 772, use only 773ER) with 747 been phased out. Once 744F need replacement (it will be quite a while), they will probably be looking at A380F, especially since BR's ultimate goal is becoming a major cargo carrier and they're looking at expansion, they could order A380 mostly freighters, just a few (3-4) for TPE-LAX, TPE-HKG along with them.

Its going to be a long time before the 744Fs need replacement. EVA is converting some of their Passenger and Combi versions into Freighters as well. Also, I think with fleet commonality issues, EVA wouldn't purchase 3-4 A380F just to operate particular routes. Also, without access to China, I don't know how EVA would justify having such a large freighter. I think the 777F or maybe even the A330F (if there is one) would be a better option.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
China has become an economic superpower nobody can be out of though with

Tap the brakes: China has a nominal economic output comparable to France or Italy taken individually. China isn't even 1/5 of the United States or 1/4 of the EU's "economic power."

What's remarkable is China's growth rate
 
atmx2000
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:12 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 35):
What do you mean by "design payload"? Airbus are claiming 8000nm with 555 passengers, their bags and no cargo. That depends on an OEW that is about 20,000 lbs. lighter than the lightest cabin configuration any airline will actually install. LH and SQ have both calculated that with their planned OEWs (with the cabins that they will actually use, not the theoretical Airbus feather-light cabin), that real-world range (allowing for headwinds on typical routes) with the 480 or so passengers for which they will fit seats, plus their baggage, will be 6800-7000nm.

Gotcha. I forget about the real configuration OEW controversy. But 20K lbs will only knock of 500nm at the same passenger load. But if you reduce passenger load by 70 passengers, you reduce the payload enough to compensate for around 75% of the increased OEW and reduce only range by well under 200nm. So if there is any reduced range, it has to come from increased payload, either higher per passenger weight allocations or cargo.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 8588
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:31 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 38):
So if there is any reduced range, it has to come from increased payload, either higher per passenger weight allocations or cargo.

Also consider that the A388 won't have a tremendous volume for revenue cargo in the first place. The volume of both cargo holds is 38 LD3 conatiners*, yielding a rather low passenger:cargo ratio when loaded near its ~500 seat capacity. Pack light!

When carrying high passenger loads towards the edge of the A388's range performance, the aircraft will already be close to volume max. Add's some fun to the revenue equation of passengers versus cargo...

-----------

For comparison, the 773ER has volume for 44 LD3 containers with a standard capacity of 300-350 seats.
 
LAXDESI
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:45 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 37):
Tap the brakes: China has a nominal economic output comparable to France or Italy taken individually. China isn't even 1/5 of the United States or 1/4 of the EU's "economic power."

What's remarkable is China's growth rate

China's GDP is the second highest in the world right behind that of USA and EU- I am using PPP numbers here. China's output is about 66% that of USA or EU. Link:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html
 
B797
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:48 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
Bye bye 150 737s, don't-know-how-many 787s and all other orders for Boeing planes, not to mention future sales and what about other businesses like cars, software etc etc....???

They dont actually buy software in China. Its bootlegged  Smile j/k
 
flyinghippo
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 7:45 am

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 9):
this is exactly what has happened and Boeing are in the doghouse both in the Presidential residence and Ministry of National Defense in Taipei.

The current ROC administration has pissed off GWB for more than a few times since the Boeing/ROC VP fiasco, I think the Taiwanese government would try to amend some broken fences with the US. Ording 748I would be a good start.

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 24):
and now this!
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/fron...98097

Seriously... If I'm the president of CI, I would tell the government to worry about getting the economy back on track, open up direct flights between ROC and PRC, BEFORE worrying about the stupid stuff like this. If CI can fly direct to PEK, CAN, PVG, etc, they would be rolling in money not only from ROC based companies, they will INCREASE flights to IAH, JFK instead of decreasing them.

But, if there are no political pressure involved, I think CI should order 748I and A350.

CI has a huge number of 747/Fs, adding 748I would give them added capacity and added range they desperately needs to do JFK-TPE non-stop without adding a new type.(Especially WHEN direct flights opens up... Imagine, JFK-PEK/PVG/CAN, etc, with one stop, TPE would be a big gateway into China) With the current economic situation in Taiwan right now, A380 is just too big. The only city CI would remotely need a A380 is TPE-LAX.

A350 would be the logical plane to replace CI's 7 343s, and with 15 A333s CI will have in their fleet, A350 would have the crew commonality CI needs. And when it comes the time to replace the 738s, I'd either go with A320s, or with 737/A320 replacements, assuming that both would offer cockpit and flight training commonality with their wide body cousins.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 7:49 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 40):
I am using PPP numbers here.

I was using IMF... I'm shocked at the difference in estimates. That being said, it's completly tangent to this thread, so if you'd like to continue in Non-Av, I'd be glad to participate.
 
zvezda
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 8:20 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 40):

China's GDP is the second highest in the world right behind that of USA and EU- I am using PPP numbers here. China's output is about 66% that of USA or EU. Link:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/....html

The 1985 CIA World Factbook said that the per capita GDP of East Germany surpassed that of West Germany in 1983. Hardly a credible source.
 
LAXDESI
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:57 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 44):
The 1985 CIA World Factbook said that the per capita GDP of East Germany surpassed that of West Germany in 1983. Hardly a credible source.

The numbers/rankings for China are similar based on 2004 World Bank figures.

Link:
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/D...TASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP_PPP.pdf
 
trex8
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 10:30 am

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 42):
The current ROC administration has pissed off GWB for more than a few times since the Boeing/ROC VP fiasco, I think the Taiwanese government would try to amend some broken fences with the US. Ording 748I would be a good start.

GWB isn't looking for a 748 order, he's looking for 8 subs, 3 batteries of Pac3 Patriots and upgrade of the present 2 MADS batteries and 12 P3s. The latter it seems from latest reports Ma and the KMT may even agree with!

[Edited 2006-03-20 02:33:12]
 
flyinghippo
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:21 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 46):
GWB isn't looking for a 748 order, he's looking for 8 subs, 3 batteries of Pac3 Patriots and upgrade of the present 2 MADS batteries and 12 P3s. The latter it seems from latest reports Ma and the KMT may even agree with!

Whne I say that GWB is not happy with President Chen, I'm not just talking about the arms deal, which GWB understand that it's is being held up in the ROC Congress, out of Pres. Chen's control.

If the arms deal cannot be realized any time soon, the ROC government can have CI order a few 748I/Fs to at least show a attempt in good faith. That's why I think CI will be one of the launch customers of 748I (And it does make sense to CI's current fleet)
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 12:44 pm

Quoting FCKC (Reply 6):
Just a though.

But a good thought.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8):
While this has certainly been true in the past, the US seems to be less "interested" in Taiwan these days. A cynic might suggest that the PRC represents a vastly larger market for US goods and services than does Taiwan. Sadly for the Taiwanese, the mighty $ rules.

Really...

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 13):
Unless I have missed something.

If you did, so did I.

The US threatens China with fullscale war bi-yearly over Taiwan. Nothing has changed. Further, China cut it's 150 737 order to 70 during the President's visit last fall to try to punish him for the Taiwan stance, though that was only a temporary thing for political purposes. Ultimately, it was always to be a 150/150 737/320 break down.

Beyond that, is Taiwan somehow going to reward France for selling China arms and offering to open an A320 plant there?

I love how people talk about Taiwan "punishing" the USA, and thus giving orders to France, who will always be less supportive of Taiwan no matter what the USA does.

If the order is purely political, it goes to Boeing. But there are other factors.

I still like the A350/748i mix. It solves the A300/A330/A340 problem, while giving a big boost to Boeing's 748i program. Further, the A359 order can be announced at a later date, as they aren't needed right now and won't EIS until 2011 anyway.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
flyinghippo
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RE: China Airlines To Buy Either A380 Or 747-8

Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:31 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 48):
I still like the A350/748i mix. It solves the A300/A330/A340 problem, while giving a big boost to Boeing's 748i program. Further, the A359 order can be announced at a later date, as they aren't needed right now and won't EIS until 2011 anyway.

Agreed, but I don't think A333 is a "problem" for CI.
A350/B748I combo would be the most logical choice, but because their A333 fleet is pratically NEW (Still receiving them this and next year!), so I think A350 would be strictly a replacement for A343s, and maybe expansion into Europe and N. America. (Still doesn't look to good for Airbus with CI replacing A343s so early, but better replacing them with A358/9s than B787-9/10s)

So, CI's fleet will only have 3 types if my logic proves to be true:
B738 - Domestic, thin regional routes
A333/358 - Heavy regional routes (i.e. NRT, BKK, NGO, HKG), thin long routes (i.e. SYD, BNE, Europe, SEA, IAH) - Good for testing new markets such as ORD and AKL.
B748I - Heavy, long routes (i.e. JFK, LAX, SFO, YVR)

That should fill all the markets CI serves quite nicely.