rentonview
Posts: 171
Joined: Mon May 16, 2005 2:22 am

Would Regionals Survive A DL Or NW Collapse?

Thu Mar 23, 2006 1:23 pm

If either DL or NW (or ANY other major, for that matter) were to collapse, what's the possibility that their feeder carriers would continue operations, perhaps under their own brands (such as Independence Air after it broke with UA... sorry, bad example)? Would a carrier like SkyWest, which flies for both DL and UA, be able to handle DL going under, despite the loss of all the connections to DL mainline at SLC? I wonder what kind of contingency plans are in place at the regionals right now.

With regionals now operating so many routes that were formerly mainline, it seems that the complete collapse of a major with substantial "outsourced" operations would be different now than it was back in the 80s and early 90s, when Eastern, Braniff, and Pan Am stopped operating. Are the folding of those carriers (and their effects on affiliate carriers) even comparable to what might happen with a DL or NW collapse today? I'm not familiar with what happened to Pan Am Express and similar operators back then.

My apologies in advance for bringing up tough scenarios for people who would be affected by a collapse of DL or NW, but I'm concerned about the future of the affiliate airlines, too, as well as the small communities they serve.
 
COERJ145
Posts: 1140
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2005 7:22 am

RE: Would Regionals Survive A DL Or NW Collapse?

Thu Mar 23, 2006 2:34 pm

OO would survive if DL folded, I think they get most of their revenue from UA, not DL. Pinnacle and Mesaba would probably fold if NW folded. EV is owned by OO so they would survive, and Comair would fall with the mothership(DL).
 
FlightShadow
Posts: 1060
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 4:43 pm

RE: Would Regionals Survive A DL Or NW Collapse?

Thu Mar 23, 2006 2:34 pm

There are so many complications with this. If DL collapses, SLC is going to see, almost overnight, tens to hundreds of total additional flights from UA, CO, NW, AA, WN, F9, and possibly B6. This presents a small problem because OO operates with DL, DL takes care of many of the landside services. I'm sure that, (using one of many hypotheticals as an example) if CO adopted SLC as a hub, OO would start operating under CO's order, although it would take a while to work all the kinks out. They would survive, yes, a fleet like OO's is too valuable to just let die in the desert. But it won't be pretty, at least for a while.
"When the tide goes out, you can tell who was skinnydipping."
 
rentonview
Posts: 171
Joined: Mon May 16, 2005 2:22 am

RE: Would Regionals Survive A DL Or NW Collapse?

Thu Mar 23, 2006 2:39 pm

Quoting FlightShadow (Reply 2):
if CO adopted SLC as a hub, OO would start operating under CO's order, although it would take a while to work all the kinks out.

That's kind of what I was thinking... that it might be possible for some of the stronger/more diversified regionals to wait things out until someone else picks up the abandoned hubs like SLC, DTW, or MSP.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4425
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

RE: Would Regionals Survive A DL Or NW Collapse?

Thu Mar 23, 2006 2:52 pm

Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 1):
I think they get most of their revenue from UA, not DL.

From Skywest's annual report:
For the month ended December 31, 2005, approximately 59.9% of our aggregate capacity was operated under the Delta code and approximately 40.1% was operated under the United code.

That doesn't mean revenues use the same % split, but I would say a good guess would be a 50/50 split.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain