Ants
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A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sat Mar 25, 2006 5:44 pm

As has been widely discussed on a.net recently, Airbus is going to try to evacuate 853 passengers and 20 staff from the A380 within 90 secs using 8 exits in Hamburg tomorrow, Sunday 26 March. A overview of the test can be found here: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/263847_air22.html

Over the last two years I think I have read dozens (if not hundreds) of posts on a.net stating that Airbus doesn't have a chance of getting that many off within the time period. Even Airbus has started to lower expectations ahead of the test by saying they're confident they'll at least reach 750 (see http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...oised+for+crucial+exit+trial.html)

So how about some people put their reputations on the line  sly  and state what the odds of success are. I suggest four categories, and alongside are my predictions.

1. The evacuation stops prematurely (due to injuries, technical issues, etc.) - 5%
2. At least 650 passengers get off: 80%
3. At least 750 passengers get off: 60%
4. All 853 passengers and 20 crew get off: 20%  thumbsup 

FYI, the 744 was certified with a max of 540 passengers after a 1986 evacuation test using 6 exits...
 
Eos757
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success

Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:15 pm

Why are the regulatory agencies permitting the slides to be "PRE-inflated?"

At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

If they are pre-inflating slides, the crew and pax are going to know/see/realize the locations of useable exits.

Unless they inflate ALL the slides before-hand. Then "block" the unuseable exits at the last moment. But then there would still be a significant time savings in not having to open doors and "deploy" evacuation equipment.

I have (as a crewmember) participated in these exercises in the past, and I consider them very important drills. Have the details of how these exercises will be conducted been released?

Are other regulatory bodies (CAA-JAA-TC-etc) accepting these results as valid for certification in their jurisdictions?

Curious to hear more details.
 
leelaw
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:20 pm

Quoting Ants (Thread starter):
the 744 was certified with a max of 540 passengers after a 1986 evacuation test using 6 exits...

How many passengers were seated on the plane when the test began?
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Scorpio
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:33 pm

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Why are the regulatory agencies permitting the slides to be "PRE-inflated?"

At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

Did you read the Seattle PI link? Please do so before asking questions that are clearly answered in that article.
 
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zeke
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:33 pm

Quoting Ants (Thread starter):
So how about some people put their reputations on the line and state what the odds of success are.

I think very high, the number of pax per exit should be less than a 777.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Why are the regulatory agencies permitting the slides to be "PRE-inflated?"

For safety.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

Same in this case.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Unless they inflate ALL the slides before-hand. Then "block" the unuseable exits at the last moment. But then there would still be a significant time savings in not having to open doors and "deploy" evacuation equipment.

Seems logical. Inflating all the slides, but not using them would also show if and slide would fowl another. Also I think some time is taken off for predeployment of slides.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Are other regulatory bodies (CAA-JAA-TC-etc) accepting these results as valid for certification in their jurisdictions?

Should have people from FAA and EASA overseeding the test.
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Ants
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sat Mar 25, 2006 6:34 pm

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
I have (as a crewmember) participated in these exercises in the past, and I consider them very important drills. Have the details of how these exercises will be conducted been released?

Are other regulatory bodies (CAA-JAA-TC-etc) accepting these results as valid for certification in their jurisdictions?

Curious to hear more details.

I think you'll find most of your questions are answered in the Flight International article I posted. Unfortunately the url wasn't quite correct the first time I posted it so here it is again: http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...poised+for+crucial+exit+trial.html
 
kappel
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:01 pm

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

Same rules in europe. The pax and crew won't know which exits are useable.

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
If they are pre-inflating slides, the crew and pax are going to know/see/realize the locations of useable exits.

They are entering through a tunnel, so they cannot see which slides are inflated.

Quoting Ants (Thread starter):
1. The evacuation stops prematurely (due to injuries, technical issues, etc.) - 5%
2. At least 650 passengers get off: 80%
3. At least 750 passengers get off: 60%
4. All 853 passengers and 20 crew get off: 20%

I'd say barring a premature stop due to injuries, 750: 100%, 843: 80%. The exits are enough IMHO. And the crew will make sure that the people with jitters from the upper deck will be "convinced" quickly to slide down. Besides, they won't even see how high they are.
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aeronut
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sat Mar 25, 2006 11:53 pm

Quoting Eos757 (Reply 1):
Why are the regulatory agencies permitting the slides to be "PRE-inflated?"

At least in the USA, the requirement is that pax and crew NOT to know the location of useable exits before an evacuation test.

If they are pre-inflating slides, the crew and pax are going to know/see/realize the locations of useable exits.

Unless they inflate ALL the slides before-hand. Then "block" the unuseable exits at the last moment. But then there would still be a significant time savings in not having to open doors and "deploy" evacuation equipment.

I have (as a crewmember) participated in these exercises in the past, and I consider them very important drills. Have the details of how these exercises will be conducted been released?

Are other regulatory bodies (CAA-JAA-TC-etc) accepting these results as valid for certification in their jurisdictions?

Curious to hear more details.

Just because the slides are deployed, it doesn't mean that the doors won't be jammed shut. This is how it will be done.
 
Poitin
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:38 am

Lets start a "office pool" to see who can guess the number that the A380 is certified at. While this is not gambling for the pool, the winner gets bragging rights

I take 731  Big grin
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kappel
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:43 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 8):
Lets start a "office pool" to see who can guess the number that the A380 is certified at. While this is not gambling for the pool, the winner gets bragging rights

I take 731

Like I said ealier, at least 750, but let's keep that number...750.
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ER757
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:48 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 8):
Lets start a "office pool" to see who can guess the number that the A380 is certified at. While this is not gambling for the pool, the winner gets bragging rights

I'll say everyone gets out - 853.
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:51 am

My guess will be 777! Of course if that is the number, Airbus will remove at least one!
 
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zeke
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:52 am

All would be 853+20 .... 873  Smile
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bjornstrom
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:34 am

The demonstration in Hamburg will use 853 volunteer �passengers� drawn from Airbus staff and local gym members, plus 18 cabin crew provided by Lufthansa and two flightcrew.

Would be more interesting with people "from the street" - ordinary people and not just gymnasts and Airbus employees with full knowledge of the aircraft layout and evacuation procedures.
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KFLLCFII
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 1:50 am

Tough call...I think the exits will become overly-bottlenecked too fast, especially on the top. Gut feeling? 600, max.
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474218
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:02 am

Quoting Bjornstrom (Reply 13):
Would be more interesting with people "from the street" - ordinary people and not just gymnasts and Airbus employees with full knowledge of the aircraft layout and evacuation procedures.

Every passenger on every flight should have "full knowledge" of the aircraft layout and the evacuation procedures, it is one of your responsibilities when you fly. That is why the show the safety movie or hold a safety demonstration before each flight, and print up all those laminated safety cards!

Additionally, I really don't think a secretary in the payroll office or a security policemen that guards the gate has "full Knowledge" of the aircraft layout and evacuation procedures. Those are the type of Airbus employees they would chose for the test. Remember it has to be a cross section of society.
 
Eos757
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:11 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 3):
Did you read the Seattle PI link? Please do so before asking questions that are clearly answered in that article

Actually NOT all of my questions were answered in that article. And the other link (which did provide additional details) was faulty at the time of my first post.

I was generally looking for any additional details about this test. And providing my own thoughts and observations on the subject. Having a conversation, if you will.

Jeesh, tough crowd eh?

Quoting Ants (Reply 5):
I think you'll find most of your questions are answered in the Flight International article I posted. Unfortunately the url wasn't quite correct the first time I posted it so here it is again: http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles....html

Ants, thank you for the corrected link.
 
Poitin
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success

Sun Mar 26, 2006 3:24 am

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 14):
Tough call...I think the exits will become overly-bottlenecked too fast, especially on the top. Gut feeling? 600, max.

Hope you are wrong because EK bought 43 of the big beauties with the intent of putting 650 pax on at least some of them. That would cause a serious issue for Airbus, and I might add that the various press releases said they would retest if they don't get at least 650. However, they get only ONE retest.

And remember EK has pushed back on 12 A340-600 whatever models, so they are not shy about telling anybody off.

Might be an interesting day tomorrow.  Big grin
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Dougloid
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:03 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
Hope you are wrong because EK bought 43 of the big beauties with the intent of putting 650 pax on at least some of them. That would cause a serious issue for Airbus, and I might add that the various press releases said they would retest if they don't get at least 650. However, they get only ONE retest.

Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

It's in the aticle posted about how the A350 is better than the 787.

Here's a snippet.

Q. What is happening with the superjumbo A380?

A. We are still in the test phase, the final phase of development. Some milestones are coming up. Soon we will have the evacuation test, in which we have to put 500 people out in 90 seconds.
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georgiaame
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success

Sun Mar 26, 2006 4:10 am

If we knew the answer, the test would not be necessary in the first place.

So rather than all of us gazing into our Harry Potter crystal balls, why not wait for some hard facts?

If the test fails or there are multiple injuries, clearly Airbus is in trouble. But despite the inevitable gloating, I doubt Airbus will scrap the project as a result. It isn't as if opening the door and blowing the slides has never been performed before. If the test is a rousing success, and all 800 get out in only 70 seconds, I still won't be too happy about being a passenger during the real thing, on either this aircraft or any other one.

I can see the threads now: Whale jet FAILS major hurdle, managment puts on sack cloth and ashes! or Whale jet PASSES major hurdle, first passengers to fly next week! I don't think so in either case...
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WingedMigrator
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success

Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:00 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 18):
Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

I saw that too... maybe he's trying to set low expectations in order to beat them easily?  Smile

My bet is that they get 787 people out (probably on the second try.)
 
Poitin
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:02 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 18):
Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

Who is Mr. Enders and why does he say such things?
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
tguman
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:22 am

my vote is for 704.5 people. The .5 counts for the life-sized dolls they will use. There is supposed to be three, if i read the article correctly.
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Dougloid
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:56 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 21):
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 18):
Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

Who is Mr. Enders and why does he say such things?

He's the CEO of EADS. As to why he says such things I can't help you out there.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/25/bu.../25interview.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
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atnight
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:02 am

I think they will get all of them out.... At least over 800... IMHO...
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greasespot
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:37 am

I bet they have already done the test once before.....Made the employees sing confidentiality agreements......This high profile...i do not believe they would be doing it unless they KNOW the people will make it out in time....


This is not like a wing stress test that is a one time thing.....this is a test that can be done over...


I i bet all pax make it out

GS
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Poitin
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:38 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 23):
Who is Mr. Enders and why does he say such things?

He's the CEO of EADS. As to why he says such things I can't help you out there.

I would say Airbus has a real problem if their owners don't have a clue. Thanks for the link, although it pay for view. I thought that it may have been him but I don't think he would make such a statement, even if it were true. (Please note I am using the subjunctive mode here.)
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Alessandro
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:41 am

Georgia, stop the A380 if evacuation test fails? Hardly, then it´s all cargo-hauler, but I doubt that will be the outcome.
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leelaw
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:08 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 18):
Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

He also said that "you could even put a tennis court inside (which is physically impossible as even a "singles" tennis court is 27 ft. wide)." Even John Leahy wouldn't tell such a wild fib. Perhaps Mr. Enders isn't a details kinda guy or hadn't had his coffee before the interview?  Smile
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Ants
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:04 am

Quoting Ants (Thread starter):
FYI, the 744 was certified with a max of 540 passengers after a 1986 evacuation test using 6 exits...

I've just seen that the FAA has actually certifed the 744 for 660 passengers (550 on lower deck and 110 on upper deck) so I assume an evacuation test must have taken place in the past with this many onboard (see page 14 of http://www.airweb.faa.gov/Regulatory...c4862570130061c913/$FILE/A20WE.pdf ).

So if you can get that many off the 744 within 90 secs, I would say the odds of getting at least 750 off the A380 are even higher (my guess now is 90%).
 
art
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:35 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 20):
My bet is that they get 787 people out (probably on the second try.)

I'm from Europe, so my bet has got to be 350.  Smile

One thing I do wonder about: given the drop from the upper deck, how hard will people be hitting anyone in the way at the bottom of the slide? I mean, if everyone got out in the time alloted but some people from the top deck got injured in the process, would that invalidate the result?
 
YYZflyer
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:51 am

My guess would be.............somewhere around 750. It would be different in a real emergency.
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glideslope
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 11:26 am

Prediction: The test will be rescheduled due to all the rampant speculation on A.net.
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ContnlEliteCMH
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 11:40 am

I'll take 785. It's just a silly guess. I have no rationale for it.
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CVG72
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:10 pm

A380
+
A350
-------
A730

CVG72  yummy 
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mikester540
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:15 pm

My Prediction: 871

I bet they'll have no problem getting all of the people off, minus a few of the crew and such...
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zeke
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:19 pm

Quoting Ants (Reply 29):
I've just seen that the FAA has actually certifed the 744 for 660 passengers (550 on lower deck and 110 on upper deck) so I assume an evacuation test must have taken place in the past with this many onboard (see page 14 of http://www.airweb.faa.gov/Regulatory...c4862570130061c913/$FILE/A20WE.pdf ).

So if you can get that many off the 744 within 90 secs, I would say the odds of getting at least 750 off the A380 are even higher (my guess now is 90%).

My understanding is that the upper slide was never tested, the FAA gave the approval with the special letter from the FAA to Boeing. My understanding is they said for 5 type A exits you can get 550 people out (110 per exit), add a type A exit on the upper deck you will be allowed to have 110 pax.

The initial 747 test had 15 people from memory walk down the internal stairs and exit from the lower deck.

The UK CAA had a really good document for this, a summary of all evacuation tests for all types (Airbus & Boeing and many more), and method of compliance. I cannot find it again at the moment.

110 people per door is considered normal, so 873 should be possible.
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ikramerica
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:34 pm

Quoting CVG72 (Reply 34):
A380
+
A350
-------
A730

CVG72

yeah, but 380800+350900= 731700! That's a lot of pax.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 36):
My understanding is they said for 5 type A exits you can get 550 people out (110 per exit), add a type A exit on the upper deck you will be allowed to have 110 pax.

Is there a caveat that says 550 max on main deck, with 110 on upper deck if desired? Obviously, you can't put 110 up there, but
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corey07850
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 12:47 pm

I'm going to go with 680... just an off the wall guess
 
B777fan
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 2:52 pm

I'll take 800. 100 per exit.

(Atnight said "at least over 800" - so 800 was still open!)
 
atnight
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:02 pm

Quoting B777fan (Reply 39):
I'll take 800. 100 per exit.

(Atnight said "at least over 800" - so 800 was still open!)

That's funny B777fan... liked your sense of humor... we'll see who wins in "The Price Is Right"!  Smile
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airwave
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success

Sun Mar 26, 2006 5:46 pm

I'm rather surprised that no one's shouted out "666!!!!" and then run off. Hoo-ray for restraint!  Yeah sure

Quoting Atnight (Reply 40):
we'll see who wins in "The Price Is Right"! Smile

Hahaha, that's all we need: Barker'll show up on this thread, announce the winner, give 'em a juicer...and then for his encore he'll head over and spay or neuter that poor deaf cat in Non-Av...

Oh, and I'll take 687, just because.

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leelaw
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:43 pm

I'm sure Humbert & Co have a few knots in their collective stomachs this morning. Airbus has never been too keen on being required to conduct a "traditional" evacuation test on the WhaleJet:

...Derek Davies, the A380 marketing director, said: “If you subject more than 800 people to an evacuation test and someone comes off the bottom of the slide and someone else hits them from behind, you have to ask why we have
maimed somebody. There will be questions asked if someone is left a paraplegic.”

Airbus was pushing hard for a "partial test" early on, but couldn't convince the regulators (particularly the FAA) to modify testing requirements.

http://www.iasa.com.au/folders/Safet...bus_in_fear_of_full_emergency.html

Let's hope Airbus' earlier concerns aren't realized today.

[Edited 2006-03-26 10:51:24]
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PlaneHunter
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 6:51 pm

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 18):
Mr. Enders told the new york times they're aiming for 500.

I'm sure that was a mistake, somehow produced during or after the interview. Airbus certainly did not reduce the number to 500 and it's very unlikely the CEO of EADS doesn't know crucial details about such a crucial test. If that exact number had been said literally during the interview, the editors should have asked for a confirmation. The question is whether they had done enough research prior to the interview.


PH
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leelaw
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:12 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 43):
I'm sure that was a mistake, somehow produced during or after the interview. Airbus certainly did not reduce the number to 500 and it's very unlikely the CEO of EADS doesn't know crucial details about such a crucial test. If that exact number had been said literally during the interview, the editors should have asked for a confirmation. The question is whether they had done enough research prior to the interview.

You may be right Udo. However, Enders also said in the same interview that "you could even put a tennis court inside [the A380] (which is physically impossible as even a "singles" tennis court is 27 ft. wide)." Even John Leahy wouldn't tell such a wild fib. Perhaps Mr. Enders isn't a details kinda guy or hadn't had his coffee before the interview?  Smile
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 7:20 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 44):
However, Enders also said in the same interview that "you could even put a tennis court inside

True, another very strange statement. I'm wondering - why (apparently) didn't the editors jump on that? Not enough time, or not enough research?

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 44):
Perhaps Mr. Enders isn't a details kinda guy or hadn't had his coffee before the interview?

Well, let's hope it was just the coffee...


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
KFLLCFII
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 10:39 pm

So when do the fireworks start?
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
Ants
Topic Author
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 11:21 pm

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 46):
So when do the fireworks start?

Well according to this report: http://www.nachrichten.at/apanews/ap...D=ae053f3f5ca07cdc108f45b4ea8381ad (in German) I think it says it'll occur between 15:00 and 17:00 local time, which means it should be over within about 3 hours.

It'll be interesting to see how long it takes for reports to come out on how it went.
 
jush
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Sun Mar 26, 2006 11:42 pm

You are all to pessimistic but's hey it's the a.net crowd. Alot of people who have no value to society whatsoever + a few with an open mind and knowledge (+ I myself cause I don't belong to any of these two groups).

Anyway I reckon they'll evacuate 780-all with my guess being at the upper end or near all out just in time.

The Whalejet has been bashed here so long and it will still prove success IMO.

Regards
jush
There is one problem with airbus. Though their products are engineering marvels they lack passion, completely.
 
corey07850
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RE: A380 Evacuation - What Are The Odds Of Success?

Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:01 am

Quoting Ants (Reply 47):
I think it says it'll occur between 15:00 and 17:00 local time, which means it should be over within about 3 hours.

Well I forgot when the European Daylight Savings occurs, but at the time of this post, it should happen in an hour or two!

Good Luck Aiirbus, hope no one is seriously injured