TinkerBelle
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Fri Mar 31, 2006 10:52 pm

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/3755801.html

"Over the next 20 years we see need for about 900 airplanes," he said, with 300 being freighters and the remainder for passenger use.

They're definately off to a lousy start then.
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MEA-707
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Fri Mar 31, 2006 10:57 pm

900 airplanes is a bit spokesman-babble. He keeps in the middle if he means only for the 747-800 or for the whole 350-600 pax market.
I think they actually see the 747-800 as a niche aircraft and will be happy -and make decent a profit on it- with another let's say 200 to be built in the 2010s. But of course he can't admit on this moment that the 747 became a niche player and the 787 and 777 are their core long range aircraft.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
MarcoT
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Fri Mar 31, 2006 10:58 pm

Quoting TinkerBelle (Thread starter):
"Over the next 20 years we see need for about 900 airplanes," he said, with 300 being freighters and the remainder for passenger use.

They're definately off to a lousy start then.

To be fair it is not clear, even after reading the articles, if the Boeing rep was referring to 748 specifically or to the whole VLA market.
Either way it seems that Boeing estimated of VLA market are getting closer to Airbus one  

Last thing, the article mentioned the opportunity to fill the 200 seats gap between the A380 and the A346, 773ER and [bold]744[/bold] ?!

[Edited 2006-03-31 14:59:37]
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TinkerBelle
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 12:22 am

Quoting MarcoT (Reply 2):
To be fair it is not clear, even after reading the articles, if the Boeing rep was referring to 748 specifically or to the whole VLA market.

I think he was referring to the 748 orders but I think he's quite optimistic.

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 1):
I think they actually see the 747-800 as a niche aircraft and will be happy -and make decent a profit on it

They sure can use at least one pax version order soon.
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 12:35 am

This seems optimistic to me. There are few situations where it would make sense to buy 2 JumboJets rather than 3 B787-10s.
 
bmacleod
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:24 am

I remember McDonnell Douglas having similar predictions about their MD-11 and we all know how that turned out....
The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
 
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LTU932
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 4:24 am

Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 3):
I think he was referring to the 748 orders but I think he's quite optimistic.

It's far too optimistic. The only advantage Boeing will have is the costs of the project (from R&D to assembly, etc.). Since this is not a clean sheet design, but rather yet another improvement and redesign of a 1960's design, their breakeven point will be low, so Boeing can make money off it with fewer sales than one might expect or like to see.
 
Thorben
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 4:37 am

I think this is not going to happen, the market wants more frequencies and more point-to-point flights with more fuel-efficient twinjets like the A350, not gas-guzzling four-engines-for-more-weight-planes such as the 747-8.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
flydreamliner
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 4:46 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 7):
fuel-efficient twinjets like the A350, not gas-guzzling four-engines-for-more-weight-planes such as the 747-8.

Boeing has a point to point fuel efficient jet (actually, the most fuel efficient) jet similar to A350... And 747-8 isn't the only more weight 4 engine plane I can think of. I know of another company that makes atleast two of those....
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Thorben
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 4:50 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 9):
Boeing has a point to point fuel efficient jet (actually, the most fuel efficient) jet similar to A350... And 747-8 isn't the only more weight 4 engine plane I can think of. I know of another company that makes atleast two of those....

Really? I thought they make only one since the other one died.

Besides, how do you know who is more fuel-efficient when they are not even existing yet?

Besides the besides, do you actually know what fuel-efficient means and what it is good for?
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
zvezda
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 4:59 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 7):
I think this is not going to happen, the market wants more frequencies and more point-to-point flights with more fuel-efficient twinjets like the A350, not gas-guzzling four-engines-for-more-weight-planes such as the 747-8.

This is true as far as it goes, but laughably one-sided. The A350 and B787 will together take a very big chunk out of the A340, JumboJet, and WhaleJet markets. That's progress and it's a good thing.
 
jaysit
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 5:02 am

Isn't this the same Boeing who said that a VLA market didn't exist?
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ikramerica
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 5:04 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 12):
Isn't this the same Boeing who said that a VLA market didn't exist?

Isn't this the same type of ignorant statement from people with an agenda?

The answer to your question is, no, Boeing never said that. Ever.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 5:10 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 12):
Isn't this the same Boeing who said that a VLA market didn't exist?

Please cite where Boeing ever said that. I don't believe they ever did. Every Boeing forecast I've ever read predicted a VLA market.
 
na
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 5:26 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 7):
I think this is not going to happen, the market wants more frequencies and more point-to-point flights with more fuel-efficient twinjets like the A350, not gas-guzzling four-engines-for-more-weight-planes such as the 747-8.

More frequency = More airplanes = more fuel = more noise = more crews to pay for = more risk of accidents = higher fares.
Hardly a recipe that works everywhere. And for aircraft of 747 size and bigger there are simply no engines available (or even planned) to build a twinjet.
Thanks, but I´ll take a quad over a twin everythime.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 6:13 am

Quoting NA (Reply 15):
More frequency = More airplanes = more fuel = more noise = more crews to pay for = more risk of accidents = higher fares.

This doesn't always hold true. Sometimes more smaller planes use less fuel and makes less noise than one larger plane.
 
ikramerica
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 6:20 am

I know when visiting my Mom in EYW, the private jets that landed disturbed everyone, but the frequent prop-jets that landed over the house were not very loud and had a smaller noise footprint, meaning you didn't hear them coming forever and hear them long after they passed.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
TinkerBelle
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 6:26 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 7):
I think this is not going to happen, the market wants more frequencies and more point-to-point flights with more fuel-efficient twinjets like the A350, not gas-guzzling four-engines-for-more-weight-planes such as the 747-8.

Yiou make me laugh Thorben. If we were talking about the Whalejet, I bet you would have said the same exact opposite of what you just did. LOL

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8):
I suggested deletion of the thread because the title is NOT what is said in the article by any means, and either TB didn't understand this or is trying to spark a fight.

What's with you and suggesting deletion of every other thread in here??
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
DAYflyer
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 6:40 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 5):
I remember McDonnell Douglas having similar predictions about their MD-11 and we all know how that turned out....

I remember AIRBUS saying this about the A-380, and we all see how that is turning out. If lucky they will each sell 300-400 units over the next 20 years.
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LifelinerOne
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 7:08 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 19):
I remember AIRBUS saying this about the A-380, and we all see how that is turning out. If lucky they will each sell 300-400 units over the next 20 years.

Nonsense. I think the A380 is going to sell quite well, especially the A380-900. However, the WhaleJet is maybe a little early for the current aviation world. There will be a bigger market for the plane and when it grows, expect Airbus to be ready for it. I think nobody here believes the A380 which will be sold over 10 years from now will be the same like today. I think Airbus also invested in this VLA platform ready for adaption if the aviation scene demands it. Will Boeing be able to come up with another solution of it's B747 or will it come up with an all new VLA? That will be an interesting thing to see.

Cheers!  wave 
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flyinghippo
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 7:46 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 7):
I think this is not going to happen, the market wants more frequencies and more point-to-point flights with more fuel-efficient twinjets like the A350, not gas-guzzling four-engines-for-more-weight-planes such as the 747-8.

LOL... I gotta give it to you, you're one hell of an Airbus Cheerleader. The concept about point-to-point was brought up by Boeing when they introduced the 7E7, yet you used A350.

Four Engines for Long Distance was a concept celebrated by Airbus (And VS, A346, A388), and you use 748I as an example...

[Edited 2006-03-31 23:56:28]
 
rst033
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 7:48 am

Is it fuzzy math or “cross your fingers forecasting.” Look at the facts: Korean Air has 40 744, KL 25, LU 30, AF 33, United 30, All Nippon 23 etc. Then you have the 741 at the end of its life cycle, coupled with a few airlines that will use either 4-5 748. Ok so maybe all airlines won’t replace their entire 744 fleet however 600 is not a huge number at all and Boeing should reach that target in 1 ½ to 2 years.

I do agree with the argument of 777 & A330 eating in the 748 market but 747 has proven to be a profitable versatile workhorse.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 7:52 am

There might be a market for 1000 or so VLA with CASM lower than that of a hypothetical B787-11X, however, I don't see a market for more than 200 VLA with a CASM higher than that of the B787-10.
 
MD-90
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 8:02 am

Quoting Rst033 (Reply 24):
Then you have the 741 at the end of its life cycle

741? I think that's a typo.

Quoting Rst033 (Reply 24):
however 600 is not a huge number at all and Boeing should reach that target in 1 � to 2 years.

600 is a HUGE number. That's probably the better part of two decades of production of both the A380 and 748.
 
douwd20
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Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 8:03 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 14):
Please cite where Boeing ever said that. I don't believe they ever did. Every Boeing forecast I've ever read predicted a VLA market.

Exactly. They said it existed but it wasn't worth the costs of a completely new aircraft vs. benefit.
 
Ken777
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RE: Boeing Expects To Sell 600 748's.

Sat Apr 01, 2006 8:11 am

I think Boeing is probably in the ball park on their 20 year estimate - including the breakdown between pax & freighter versions.

Right now it's a flip of the coin as to who will get the biggest share of this market. The 380 did very well when it started taking orders, but I think the initial rush is over and Airbus is going to have to sell it as a 744 replacement - WHEN the airlines are replacing their 744s. Boeing is going to be slower with the 748i as it is basically a 744 replacement. They are going to need to beat the 380 for each 744 replaced.

Because the 748i is a 744 replacement the orders are going to be slower, but I can see some orders this year. The issue of the article is the 20 year market span and there will be a lot of 744 replacements ordered by then.

In terms of which is the better plane to replace the 744s in the fleet - it will depend on the airlines' needs and the market when the orders are placed. There will be a lot of airlines that feel the 380 is too large for some of their routes - just as some will feel the 748i is too small.

I also think that a lot of people are underestimating the potential value of the Sky Loft in the 748i. It can have a very strong appeal to the premium pax and drive some sales for competitive reasons.

While this market might be as exciting as watching 2 snails racing it is going to be interesting.
 
FLY2LIM
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RE: Boeing Expects To Sell 600 748's.

Sat Apr 01, 2006 8:12 am

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 1):
900 airplanes is a bit spokesman-babble. He keeps in the middle if he means only for the 747-800 or for the whole 350-600 pax market.



Quoting MarcoT (Reply 2):
Either way it seems that Boeing estimated of VLA market are getting closer to Airbus one



Quoting TinkerBelle (Reply 3):
I think he was referring to the 748 orders but I think he's quite optimistic.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
This seems optimistic to me. There are few situations where it would make sense to buy 2 JumboJets rather than 3 B787-10s

My question is, how long would he have a job if he predicted that Boeing expects to sell "20-30 airplanes in the next 20 years"???? Spokespersons have the job to hype everything. I am certain that even Boeing doesn't believe those figures, but hey, they sure attract a lot of attention, don't they?
I haven't predicted failure for anyone. I am just saying that any prediction should be read carefully, both for Boeing and Airbus.

FLY2LIM
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VirginFlyer
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RE: Boeing Forecasts Need For 900 747 Sized Aircraft

Sat Apr 01, 2006 8:15 am

This has been discussed over and over in the past. Since it seems some users are unable to discuss this without getting into a flap over "Airbus Cheerleaders" and "Boeing Cheerleaders" and so on, the thread is locked.

V/F
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Poitin
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RE: Boeing Expects To Sell 600 748's.

Sat Apr 01, 2006 8:22 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 25):
There might be a market for 1000 or so VLA with CASM lower than that of a hypothetical B787-11X.

Perhaps 20 years from now when all the airports have been rebuilt to handle it. But with the 60 or so Airbus is predicting in the next 5 or so years, I think you are being optimistic. Where do you land them? The big problem with VLA is airports. I think Boeing said this while kicking around the blended wing concept a year ago.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 25):
however, I don't see a market for more than 200 VLA with a CASM higher than that of the B787-10.

And I thought I was being Dr. Gloom and Doom when I said 250  wideeyed 

I'll move over, Zvesda and let you have the seat!
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