Posts: 1509
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:37 am

Blog: Aboulafia, ILFC & Airbus

Wed Apr 05, 2006 8:54 am

Look folks I know the A350 bashing posts are getting old and tiresome... and I'm not actively looking to contribute another... but I ran across this other article... a Blog by our favorite Aboulafia... Yes, some say he works for Boeing... but he is known in this industry and many respect and share his reviews.... So here goes...

I do agree with his last statement... waiting for the A360/370! I think Airbus has tremendous talent within but I don't think its current management is up to the task; to challenge a resurgent Boeing.

Time will tell...
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
Posts: 2769
Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 4:25 am

Blog: Aboulafia, ILFC & Airbus

Wed Apr 05, 2006 10:55 am

In my opinion all of this 350 conjecture and the "leapfrog" comment by Udvar-Hazy points to a general equilibrium and modest see-sawing that airlines and the flying public should be thankful for. What is interesting now is that Airbus has placed a massive bet on the 380 while Boeing sat back and then placed its own massive bet on the mid-market. Over the next 30 years we may see both manufactureres placing bets on the same segments at the same time. This is likely to happen in narrowbody segment in another 4-5 years. Airbus just happens to be caught in a bad place, it can't realistically do what Udvar-Hazy wants and also pull another $10B out of the hat in 2010 for the narrowbody race. And even if they did I'm not sure how exactly they would "leapfrog" the 787 series, that plane is already well into risky development waters. Unless he knows that GE has come up with hyperdrive and it's too late to get it on the 787.
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

Blog: Aboulafia, ILFC & Airbus

Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:08 am

Thanks for that, BoeingBus. Whatever else Aboulafia is, he's certainly an entertaining writer:-

"This is serious stuff. But it beats relying on CannibalAir to rescue your 200-550 seat market standing (“We have met with your A350 salesman; he was delicious. Send another for further consultation.”). That’s a recipe for a slow, steady decline.

"All of this assumes that Boeing gets it right with the 787. That remains a considerable risk. But what’s the worst-case scenario? Given the production volume that looks likely, it will be tough for them to not make cash. Boeing’s worst ever technical hiccup would mean only a 6-12 month delay—painful, but not enough to help Airbus. The only real problem would be performance or operating economics shortfalls. There’s certainly risk there. But banking on the other guy’s failure is a strategy for defeat."
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

Blog: Aboulafia, ILFC & Airbus

Thu Apr 06, 2006 3:26 am

If you want a direct link to Richard Aboulafia, use the following:

It allows one to read previous newsletters as well.