ehho
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Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 3:24 am

I just watched President Hu Jintao's speech at Boeing, and the figures were literally surreal: 678 Boeings in China now, 600 to be delivered in the upcoming years, and the demand for new planes will pretty soon reach 2000 (two thousand)! And to think, this was practically the CEO of a single customer speaking, since all Chinese aviation procurement is done by the state agency CAAC.

Now I know that China has a huge trade surplus with the USA, and that buying expensive yet unrestricted hardware like airliners is one of the best ways to soothe the pain, but I still cannot stop thinking that Airbus is losing out here, especially with its already-poor sales in the widebody field.

Anyway, I guess my question is if CAAC is Boeing's biggest customer ever, and secondly, anyone any ideas about what Airbus can do to get some of the 2000 orders to be made? It's not like we don't have a trade defecit with China...  scratchchin 

Oh, and please.. no flaming!
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
slz396
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 3:55 am

China has a habit of splitting aircraft orders 50/50 between A and B.

Mr. Hu Jintao is on a state visit to the USA, something quite exceptional. In fact, a head of state can only make one official state visit to a foreign country and during this kinds of visits it is custom to conclude high profile business deals. On this trip, Mr. Jintao will finalize the purchase of 80 737s which has been delayed since last year, so don't forget this will nicely add up to the 70 planes they've ordered from Boeing last year. This will balance out the 150 A320s the've ordered from Airbus.

Same can be expected in the wide body field:
China has ordered 787s (60???) and will be a risk sharing partner in the A350 program (5% of the A350 will be Chinese) so it is only a matter of time before they will balance this order out as well.... Expect this to be done as soon as the design of the plane is frozen, during the first state visit of Mr Hu Jintao to any of the European capitals.

Anybody knows how many Airbus planes China has on order? And how many they have already taken delivery of?
 
KL808
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:02 am

on National Public Radio this morning it talked about the Chinese order of Boeing jets, as a sign to the US government that its trying to tackle the big gap in the trade deficit.

Without a Boeing order, the state of Washington will be on a deficit with China as the rest of the 49 states.

Drew
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:14 am

Quoting EHHO (Thread starter):
I still cannot stop thinking that Airbus is losing out here, especially with its already-poor sales in the widebody field.

Hmmm... On order or in service:

747 - 21
767 - 27
777 - 20
787 - 60

TOTAL : 128

A310 - 3
A300 - 19
A330 - 54
A340 - 16
A380 - 5

TOTAL : 97

"already-poor sales in the widebody field"? A comparatively small order (by Chinese standards) for the A350 would bring the two level but Boeing has been selling in China for longer than Airbus has existed. Doesn't look too "poor" to me.
 
ehho
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:15 am

Quoting KL808 (Reply 2):
Without a Boeing order, the state of Washington will be on a deficit with China as the rest of the 49 states.

Hmm.. the economies of WA and the other 49 are one, so WA cannot have a deficit or a surplus w/o the other ones joining in.

Quoting KL808 (Reply 2):
as a sign to the US government

Actually, the trade deficit is more Washington's problem than Beijing's. Beijing is risking a lot by pushing lots of assets on the US market, raising their stake in case of a dollar collapse; but the US risk even more by living on borrowed money, certainly with China pushing off attempts to revalue the RMB, and with that mentioned collapse coming closer day by day. Mark my words, the greenback will plummet badly one day.
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
magyar
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:16 am

IMHO, the Chinese market will be devided between AB and BA according the relative importance of the EU and US for
China. There is little that AB or BA can do to change this.
 
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breiz
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting EHHO (Thread starter):
but I still cannot stop thinking that Airbus is losing out here, especially with its already-poor sales in the widebody field.

May well be.
However, Airbus is in the process of selecting the site of the Chinese A320 assembly line.
And in recent years, as pointed out by:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
China has a habit of splitting aircraft orders 50/50 between A and B.

So I do not think that there is grounds for worrying, on either side, Airbus or Boeing.
 
ehho
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:21 am

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
Doesn't look too "poor" to me.

Thanks for the numbers, PM. What I meant more by poor sales is overall widebody poor, compared to Boeing, not China specifically. Indeed with the huge A330 orders it looks like Airbus is getting some of the growth, but it still isn't what Boeing's is. According to President Hu today, two thirds of China's civil register is Boeing. Theoretically, Airbus mught be able to sell dozens A380s given all those multi-million-inhabited cities in China that need to be connected. Just look at Japan's domestic 747s, and multiply that by X..

Bottom line: I know Airbus is doing OK: but they could just as well do better. In the ned, you won't see Hu in Toulouse anytime soon I'm afraid.
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
dhefty
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:22 am

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
Hmmm... On order or in service:

747 - 21
767 - 27
777 - 20
787 - 60

TOTAL : 128

A310 - 3
A300 - 19
A330 - 54
A340 - 16
A380 - 5
TOTAL : 97

Do your totals include leased aircraft? Are Cathay Pacific and Taiwanese airlines included?
 
AADC10
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 4:33 am

That sounds impressive, but AA's current mainline fleet alone is 700 planes and China has few RJs. As they are in many cases as a market, China is more promise than profit.
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:02 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 8):
Do your totals include leased aircraft? Are Cathay Pacific and Taiwanese airlines included?

Yes, that includes leased aircraft, though, in truth, there aren't a lot of those.

No, it doesn't include any of the Hong Kong carriers. If it did the totals would read:

747 - 51
767 - 27
777 - 57
787 - 60

TOTAL : 195

A310 - 3
A300 - 20
A330 - 103
A340 - 34
A380 - 5

TOTAL :165

No, it doesn't include Taiwanese aircraft as that is a very different market. But, if we lump China, Taiwan and Hong Kong (all with B- registrations) we find that the most successful single widebody is the A330 with 127 sales. Interesting.

[Edited 2006-04-19 22:24:11]
 
mham001
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:15 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
In fact, a head of state can only make one official state visit to a foreign country

Really. Where is this written?
 
ehho
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:23 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
In fact, a head of state can only make one official state visit to a foreign country

I believe this is an unwritten rule for Europe's constitutional monarchs. I don't think it applies to elected heads involved in politics (like China, Russia, US). Certainly with Chinese leadership usually sitting for long times on end, it is thinkable that Hu might come again in a state-visit capacity when there'll be a new occupant at 1600 Pennsylvania.
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
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breiz
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:30 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 11):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
In fact, a head of state can only make one official state visit to a foreign country

Really. Where is this written?

That may be a Belgian rule.
For example, President Chirac is presently visiting Egypt, officially, for the fifth time.
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:35 am

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 9):
China is more promise than profit

You may be missing the point. Do you remember when selling a handful of 707s to China was big news? (I do.) Nowadays they order 737s and A320s in three-figure sums. Make no mistake about it, China is going to be a massive market for both Airbus and Boeing.

Quoting PM (Reply 10):
the most successful single widebody is the A330

Thinking a bit more about it, the A330 is the only widebody to have been bought by all of mainland China's "Big Three", both Hong Kong majors and both Taiwanese majors:

Air China (20) (RR)
China Eastern (20) (RR)
China Southern (14) (RR)
Cathay Pacific (32) (RR)
Dragonair (16) (RR)
China Airlines (14) (GE)
EVA (11) (GE)

The 747 is operated by:
Air China
China Southern (2 freighters)
Cathay
Dragonair (5 freighters)
China Airlines
EVA

The 777 is operated by (or on order):
Air China
China Southern
Cathay
EVA

The A340 is operated by:
Air China
China Eastern
Cathay
China Airlines

Quoting PM (Reply 10):
But, if we lump China, Taiwan and Hong Kong (all with B- registrations)

So I guess we should include Air Macau's three A300s to take the Airbus total to 168.
 
slz396
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:38 am

Keep in mind there's a difference between an official visit (which can happen many times), and a state visit (which can only happen once)....

Pres Bush recently visited the UK on a state visit, and was given honours (like staying in Buckingham Palace etc) which he will not be getting next time he comes by: he'll then have to stay in the US embassy for instance...

Basically it is a purely protocol difference between the 2, but still...
 
deltadc9
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:39 am

Quoting EHHO (Reply 4):
Hmm.. the economies of WA and the other 49 are one

That is simply not true, if it were we would not have poor states (Kentucky, Arkasas, Mississippi) and rich states (most of the upper east coast, Texas, Washington, California) I hope you are not a transplanted American saying that because if so you should know better.

[Edited 2006-04-19 22:53:58]
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
frugalqxnwa
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:40 am

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
747 - 21
767 - 27
777 - 20
787 - 60

TOTAL : 128

A310 - 3
A300 - 19
A330 - 54
A340 - 16
A380 - 5

TOTAL : 97

"already-poor sales in the widebody field"? A comparatively small order (by Chinese standards) for the A350 would bring the two level but Boeing has been selling in China for longer than Airbus has existed. Doesn't look too "poor" to me.

How many of these aircraft are on order and how many of which types? The number on order with Airbus compared with the number on order with Boeing will be a better indicator.
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:45 am

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 17):
How many of these aircraft are on order and how many of which types? The number on order with Airbus compared with the number on order with Boeing will be a better indicator.

OK. Crudely, all of the 787s, most of the A330s and all of the A380s have yet to be built and flown.

A "better indicator" of just what?
 
frugalqxnwa
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 6:20 am

Quoting PM (Reply 18):
Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 17):
How many of these aircraft are on order and how many of which types? The number on order with Airbus compared with the number on order with Boeing will be a better indicator.

OK. Crudely, all of the 787s, most of the A330s and all of the A380s have yet to be built and flown.

A "better indicator" of just what?

A better indicator of the answer to the main question in this post. If most of the A330s are still on order, then the order books are already pretty balanced and I would say Airbus is probably not losing China. The trade deficit is a hot-button issue in the US and the Chinese President visiting Boeing and personally closing the deal is more of a political maneuver than a real addressing of the issue that many in the US want.
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 6:28 am

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 19):
If most of the A330s are still on order, then the order books are already pretty balanced and I would say Airbus is probably not losing China.

So far...

China Southern have received 4 of 14
China Eastern have received 10 of 20
Air China have received 0 of 20

i.e. 14 delivered and 40 still to come.
 
dhefty
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 7:11 am

Airbus is doing quite well in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, with 148 wide- bodies delivered, including: 36-A300's, 3-A310's, 68-A330's, and 41-A340's. Their backlog is currently 56 including 51-A330's and 5-A380's, giving Airbus a total of 204 wide-bodies.

Boeing is doing even better with 195 wide-bodies in operation, including: 110-B747's, 29-B767's, 38-B777's and 18-MD11's. Their backlog is currently 98, including 12-B747's, 26-B777's and 60-B787's, giving Boeing a total of 293 wide-bodies.

Airlines include Air China, Air Hong Kong, Air Macao, Cathay Pacific, China Airlines, China Eastern, China Southern, China Cargo, DragonAir, EVA, Hainan, Jade Carago, LCAL Leasing, Shanghai, and Xiamen.
 
ehho
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 7:28 am

Thanks for the thoughts, everyone. It seems that given the figures, China is placing orders with A and B depending on the scale of their trade surplus with the corresponding economic bloc. That's why Boeing gets slightly more than Airbus. Makes sense for China of course, though it can't arguably be the best fleet planning strategy. But China can afford it for now, which is great for the manufacturers.

Most great aircraft have had their hayday when airlines had plenty to spend: I guess now and in the near future it will be China who's calling the shots.
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
SEAPlane10
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 10:08 am

Quoting EHHO (Reply 4):
Hmm.. the economies of WA and the other 49 are one, so WA cannot have a deficit or a surplus w/o the other ones joining in.

Not really, no more so than are the economies of the Euro countries considered one. The individual states are afforded a great deal of autonomy in deciding economic policies and strategies, even though they are bound together by a common currency.

Quoting EHHO (Reply 4):
Mark my words, the greenback will plummet badly one day.

Highly unlikely...what is needed to ensure confidence in the US currency is an indication from the US central government to address the budget deficit. Unlike many European countries, the US government has a lot of wiggle room to increase the marginal tax rates on high-earning individuals. Many European countries are running significant budgetary deficits while maintaining onerous marginal tax rates. Another reason the greenback has a future is the lack of replacement. With an aging population, the European Union does not provide a viable alternative as the liabilities of the future pensioners will put ever-more-so pressure on the central governments' budgets.
 
elvis777
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:14 pm

Please Come Back!

I already apologized!

Elvis777
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Carpethead
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:17 pm

Kind of surprised that no other types other than the 737 were involved in this latest order.

Quoting EHHO (Reply 7):
given all those multi-million-inhabited cities in China that need to be connected. Just look at Japan's domestic 747s, and multiply that by X..

Problem is that most of those millions in China are not financially well enough to afford a plane ticket (at least now). While in Japan, practically everybody can hop on a plane.
We will see when even a mere fraction more of the Chinese population can afford flying, then look out.
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:10 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 21):
Airbus is doing quite well in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, with 148 wide- bodies delivered, including: 36-A300's, 3-A310's, 68-A330's, and 41-A340's. Their backlog is currently 56 including 51-A330's and 5-A380's, giving Airbus a total of 204 wide-bodies.

Boeing is doing even better with 195 wide-bodies in operation, including: 110-B747's, 29-B767's, 38-B777's and 18-MD11's. Their backlog is currently 98, including 12-B747's, 26-B777's and 60-B787's, giving Boeing a total of 293 wide-bodies.

I'd actually argue that it's a little closer than that. The MD-11s were ordered when the company was still McD so they can't really count towards Boeing's sales success. Moreover, the 787s might be seen as the first wave of orders for the next generation of widebodies and it would be remarkable if a comparable number of A350s wasn't ordered quite soon. So, comparing Airbus and Boeing (not McD) models already in production Boeing's total drops to 215.

I offer this merely in the spirit of the early suggestion that Airbus widebody sales in China were "poor". Any way you look at it, Boeing is ahead but, I'd argue, not by any kind of margin that reflects poorly on Airbus.

Indeed, returning to mainland China proper (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and, of course, Taiwan) Airbus was actually well ahead until the 787 order. The 787s constitute almost half of all Boeing widebodies sold to China.
 
N754PR
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 9:28 pm

The amount of silly negative airbus post on this site is just getting crazy, when will the moderators take note???

Airbus is doing great in China, just because they have ordered some more Boeing why do people think its a finished market for Airbus??

May I ask when the BOEING plant in China will open, before or after the Airbus site?
Bush, your a sad, sad man.
 
Joni
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 10:29 pm

Quoting EHHO (Reply 12):
I believe this is an unwritten rule for Europe's constitutional monarchs.

Queen Elizabeth has also made several state visits each to countries like France, the US, Norway, the Vatican etc.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 10:57 pm

Quoting EHHO (Reply 4):
Actually, the trade deficit is more Washington's problem than Beijing's. Beijing is risking a lot by pushing lots of assets on the US market, raising their stake in case of a dollar collapse; but the US risk even more by living on borrowed money, certainly with China pushing off attempts to revalue the RMB, and with that mentioned collapse coming closer day by day. Mark my words, the greenback will plummet badly one day.

The Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar. The dollar goes up? RMB goes up. You folks better hope that the dollar doesn't crash because if it does, the tide of Chinese imports to your shores will be a tidal wave even bigger than the one you've got now. Think unemployment in Europe is bad now? Wait til it doubles-or triples.

And Boeing's products will be less and less expensive to buy. Can you imagine what a radically devalued dollar will do to European trade balances? The sucking sound you hear will be jobs going to the newest third world country-the US. And when we go, we'll probably drag Canada down too. And then, maybe the Chinese will decide to peg the RMB to the Euro at a fixed discount.

Because when the Chinese are considered, whjat we are seeing is not free trade-it's mercantilism on a grand scale. The only question is who'll be the next in line. If the US economy crashes you're next.

There's a lot to be said for cheap money. It gets spread around, it opens up opportunities, it's good for businesses and farmers. William Jennings Bryan was right about that, if nothing else.
Tight money stifles trade and growth, and that's why we got off the gold standard back in 1933. See, it doesn't expand to fit the need. Coinage and lots of it is good.

Someone over on one of the nonav boards expressed the opinion that relative to the Canadian loonie the US dollar was in a turd filled toilet. After I dug out the figures that showed that both the dollar and the loonie have been in the turd filled toilet relative to each other over the last thirty years, he shut up.

And that's OK. If the dollar IS headed to a turd filled toilet, then Europe better get busy cleaning up, because it'll be all over your bathroom floor.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
cricket
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:13 pm

Quoting N754PR (Reply 27):
The amount of silly negative airbus post on this site is just getting crazy, when will the moderators take note???

Um, lemme think now - Crazy Europeans start threads like "Boeing planes bad" Crazy Americans start ones like "Airbus Planes bad" yada, yada, yada and then use all sort of anecdotal (and imaginary) sources to defend their views.
All of us in the middle, lucky enough to living in fast growing economies where they need planes watch and laugh.
End of the day both manufacturers are maxing out - I think we need a third.
Imagine the fun that would provoke in the forums!
A300B2/B4/6R, A313, A319/320/321, A333, A343, A388, 737-2/3/4/7/8/9, 747-3/4, 772/2E/2L/3, E170/190, F70, CR2/7, 146-3,
 
warren747sp
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Thu Apr 20, 2006 11:48 pm

It depends how much European consumers are willing to contribute to China as US consumers are doing now.
Of course, Europe can always lift their arms embargo to the communist state and forget about human rights all together. Every time Euorpe does something anti American and viewd as pro Chinese, PRC will reward them and throw them a bone with a good sized Airbus order.
747SP
 
cyclonic
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 12:48 am

Some very interesting comments here and wise words as well. I'm going to throw in my two cents:

*A&B would both be wise to not depend overly on China to fuel their growth and sales, as would a lot of industries right now.

*The Chinese are hedging their bets on planes, as well as walking political lines.

*We are yet to see the rising cost of oil come into play here...

*Airbus has nothing really to get too worried about, as far as sales to China are concerned. There seems to be plenty of pie left to share. For now.
Keith Richards: The man that Death forgot...
 
dhefty
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 2:14 am

Quoting PM (Reply 26):
I'd actually argue that it's a little closer than that. The MD-11s were ordered when the company was still McD so they can't really count towards Boeing's sales success. Moreover, the 787s might be seen as the first wave of orders for the next generation of widebodies and it would be remarkable if a comparable number of A350s wasn't ordered quite soon. So, comparing Airbus and Boeing (not McD) models already in production Boeing's total drops to 215.

If the MD's were sitting in the bone yard, I might agree with you. However, they are registered as active aircraft. Boeing still gains considerable revenue in parts and maintenance of the MD fleet around the world, so it should be included in their installed base. I was merely trying to correct the grossly inaccurate numbers posted by PM in reply 3.

If you are going to disregard the units no longer in production, as you seem to suggest, then you will soon have to subtract the 39 A300/310 figures from the Airbus base, leaving only 109 active. Personally, I don't follow the logic. Just because a model is no longer in production does not mean it will not be in use for decades and remain a source of income for the manufacturer as well as profitability for the owner.

Quoting PM (Reply 26):
Indeed, returning to mainland China proper (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and, of course, Taiwan) Airbus was actually well ahead until the 787 order. The 787s constitute almost half of all Boeing widebodies sold to China.

The impact of the B787 on the overall market will be significant. As you say, Boeing nearly doubled their share of wide-bodies in the PRC with that order. I cannot foresee those carriers moving to the A350 at this point, unless it is redesigned. The B787 is definitely a game-changing aircraft and its future looks bright in China. The real shocker is the poor response to the A380.

I also question the "gospel" preached routinely in this forum that the PRC always splits their orders 50/50 between Boeing and Airbus. In narrow-bodies it makes sense to have earlier deliveries of two virtually identical machines, as well as gaining pricing advantages. However in the wide-body market the product lines are no longer seen to be equal, with Boeing definitely pulling ahead, leading to the conclusion that Boeing will continue to gain the lion's share in that segment.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 2:23 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 1):
China has a habit of splitting aircraft orders 50/50 between A and B.

Precisely. They are well known to play both sides of the pond, so to speak. There are large Chinese commitments for Airbus products.
One Nation Under God
 
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PM
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 2:27 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 33):
I was merely trying to correct the grossly inaccurate numbers posted by PM in reply 3.

Er, would you like to clarify just how my numbers in Reply #3 are "grossly inaccurate"?

The original post is clearly about China - that is, mainland China, not Hong Kong or Taiwan but the China of which Hu Jintao is President and which orders its aircraft collectively.

You are the one (see Reply #8) who first wanted to expand the debate to include other political entities and their airlines.

But the original post asked about 'China? so those are the numbers I looked up and quoted in Reply #3. The figures I quote are accurate according to the 2005/2006 edition of JP Fleets - which is usually pretty reliable. The numbers may by now be a year old or so but I'm not aware of any significant orders or cancellations that would make any meaningful difference to them.

These numbers...

Quoting PM (Reply 3):
On order or in service:

747 - 21
767 - 27
777 - 20
787 - 60

TOTAL : 128

A310 - 3
A300 - 19
A330 - 54
A340 - 16
A380 - 5

TOTAL : 97

...are the widebodies in service in China or on order. These are the numbers you describe as "grossly inaccurate".

Please feel free to point out my mistakes and give me the correct (and obviously very different) numbers.
 
deltadc9
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 2:42 am

Quoting PM (Reply 35):
The original post is clearly about China - that is, mainland China, not Hong Kong or Taiwan but the China of which Hu Jintao is President and which orders its aircraft collectively.

Hong Kong is now under his control unless he gave it back to the British. Question is, who controls the Hong Kong airlines, are they still private in every respect? If not he controls them too. I honestly dont know.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 2:45 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 36):
Hong Kong is now under his control unless he gave it back to the British. Question is, who controls the Hong Kong airlines, are they still private in every respect? If not he controls them too. I honestly dont know.

Absolutely right and I am of course aware of this. Therefore I wrote...

Quoting PM (Reply 35):
...the China of which Hu Jintao is President and which orders its aircraft collectively.

As far as I know, Cathay and Dragonair order their planes independently of the system that feeds planes to the 'mainland' airlines. I could be wrong but I believe the spirit of the original post was concerned with the orders announced centrally and decided ultimately at a political level.
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:44 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 33):
If you are going to disregard the units no longer in production, as you seem to suggest, then you will soon have to subtract the 39 A300/310 figures from the Airbus base, leaving only 109 active.

While I agree the MDs should be counted, the A300/A310 are still in production. IIRC FedEX and UPS are still receiving new A300 freighters. While I don't know of any A310s on the line, they would be produced on the same line as the A300 and are similar enough where Airbus can easily put some on if they are ordered.
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:04 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 33):
If you are going to disregard the units no longer in production, as you seem to suggest, then you will soon have to subtract the 39 A300/310 figures from the Airbus base, leaving only 109 active.



Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 38):
While I agree the MDs should be counted, the A300/A310 are still in production.

But, of course, this is an Aunt Sally. I never suggested that out-of-production planes shouldn't be counted. I was suggesting that there might be a question mark over whether to count the MD11s since they were not sold by Boeing. It seems to me that the original post was suggesting that Boeing have sold more widebodies than Airbus in China. They have - but not by a lot and until the 60 787s they were trailing Airbus. But my point is that Boeing didn't sell those MD11s; MDD did. Take the argument to its unthinkable but logical extreme. If Airbus one day took over Boeing, would they be entitled to brag about all the 747s they (Airbus) had sold in China - or elsewhere?

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 33):
The real shocker is the poor response to the A380.

Compared to what? The long list of airlines from the PRC who lined up to order the 747? One Chinese airline has ordered passenger 747s. Air China has ordered 15 over twenty years according to the Boeing website. They currently operate 12. One Chinese Airline has ordered 5 A380s during the past twelve months. China Southern.

15 passenger 747s over 20 years vs. 5 passenger A380s in one year. Early days yet, I'd say. How many A380s did you expect China to have ordered by now?

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 33):
The real shocker is the poor response to the A380.

That's what you see because, I suspect, that's what you want to see. But it's a free world. If it makes you happy...
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 5:47 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 33):
The real shocker is the poor response to the A380.

I'm going to bed now but I'll whack you again before I do.  Wink

I don't know if it qualifies as a "shocker" or not but isn't the somewhat disappointing record of the 777 in the PRC worthy of comment? Here's an outstanding plane that has taken most markets by storm but Boeing have sold just 16 in the PRC and none for the last nine years. Curious. China Southern bought 6 in 1992 (and later leased four more) and Air China ordered 10 in 1997. A total of 20 flying with two carriers. Gosh, even the miserable A340 can almost match that with 16 operating with two carriers. (Air China has 6 A343s; China Eastern has 5 A343s and 5 A346s.) Airbus here has matched Boeing in direct sales (16 vs. 16) and the A340 has 80% as many planes operating in the PRC as there are 777s. Looking at it this way, Airbus (A340) is doing much better in China than elsewhere!

Comparing different models is a very imperfect science but I think we mostly agree that the 777 programme and the A330/A340 programmes were aimed at broadly similar markets. If that's the case then the "score" in the PRC is
Airbus 70 : Boeing 20.

The real "shocker", if you want one, is that the A330 has outsold the 767 and 777 combined.

Look, I'm not trying to pour oil on the flames of yet another tedious Avs.B contest but the origin of this thread and too many of the posts within it seem to accept uncritically that Airbus is on the ropes, the problem is their widebodies, and therefore Boeing must be eating them alive in China. I wish people would stop and count the numbers for a change.

And yes, the large order for 787s changes the game and no, there's no guarantee that China will order any A350s (far less 60 of them) and at present Boeing are in the stronger position. All true.

But let's not rewrite history. Or, for that matter, distort the present.

Good night!  Wink
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 7:13 am

Quoting Frugalqxnwa (Reply 38):
While I agree the MDs should be counted, the A300/A310 are still in production. IIRC FedEX and UPS are still receiving new A300 freighters. While I don't know of any A310s on the line, they would be produced on the same line as the A300 and are similar enough where Airbus can easily put some on if they are ordered.

There are only 12 A300's and 5 A310's in the backlog and I believe Airbus has decided to close the line in the near future.

Quoting PM (Reply 39):
Compared to what? The long list of airlines from the PRC who lined up to order the 747? One Chinese airline has ordered passenger 747s. Air China has ordered 15 over twenty years according to the Boeing website. They currently operate 12. One Chinese Airline has ordered 5 A380s during the past twelve months. China Southern. 15 passenger 747s over 20 years vs. 5 passenger A380s in one year. Early days yet, I'd say. How many A380s did you expect China to have ordered by now?

Actually Air China currently operates 18. Cathay operates 35. China Southern has 2. Dragonair has 4. There are 9 on order in the PRC for a total of 68. Why do you try to weasel out of it? The last time I checked, Hong Kong was part of the PRC. The fact is that in 6 years a pitiful 5 A380's have been ordered by the PRC. To me that is shocking. Airbus counted on China, India, Japan and the US to account for a major share of A380 orders. Oops.

Quoting PM (Reply 40):
I'm going to bed now but I'll whack you again before I do.

I see where the moderators urge us all refrain from posting in anger. "Take the high road and others will follow". Good advice, my friend. And sleep well.

Quoting PM (Reply 40):
I don't know if it qualifies as a "shocker" or not but isn't the somewhat disappointing record of the 777 in the PRC worthy of comment? Here's an outstanding plane that has taken most markets by storm but Boeing have sold just 16 in the PRC and none for the last nine years. Curious. China Southern bought 6 in 1992 (and later leased four more) and Air China ordered 10 in 1997. A total of 20 flying with two carriers. Gosh, even the miserable A340 can almost match that with 16 operating with two carriers. (Air China has 6 A343s; China Eastern has 5 A343s and 5 A346s.) Airbus here has matched Boeing in direct sales (16 vs. 16) and the A340 has 80% as many planes operating in the PRC as there are 777s. Looking at it this way, Airbus (A340) is doing much better in China than elsewhere!

Getting back to the very first post, when Mr. Hu referred to over 600 Boeings operating in the PRC, he definitely included Hong Kong, because without it Boeing would not have made that number.

Quoting PM (Reply 40):
Look, I'm not trying to pour oil on the flames of yet another tedious Avs.B contest but the origin of this thread and too many of the posts within it seem to accept uncritically that Airbus is on the ropes, the problem is their widebodies, and therefore Boeing must be eating them alive in China. I wish people would stop and count the numbers for a change.

I counted them (excluding Taiwan) and found Airbus with 115 operating and 53 on order for a total of 168; Boeing with 140 operating and 98 on order for a total of 238.

Quoting PM (Reply 40):
But let's not rewrite history. Or, for that matter, distort the present.

Exactly!
 
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RE: Is Airbus Losing China?

Fri Apr 21, 2006 4:14 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 41):
Actually Air China currently operates 18. Cathay operates 35. China Southern has 2. Dragonair has 4. There are 9 on order in the PRC for a total of 68.

I've stated several times that my numbers in Reply #3 referred only to mainland China. You still haven't attempted to explain why they are "grossly inaccurate".

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 41):
The last time I checked, Hong Kong was part of the PRC.

If you check a little deeper you might also discover that it has its own currency and economic system and that its airlines buy their aeroplanes independently of CAAC.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 41):
Airbus counted on China, India, Japan and the US to account for a major share of A380 orders. Oops.

I don't remember reading that. Thank goodness for SQ, EK, LH and all the others!  Wink

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 41):
I see where the moderators urge us all refrain from posting in anger.

No anger, just wry amusement.