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1337Delta764
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Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 2:30 am

What do you think are the chances of certain airlines ordering the 787 vs. the A350? I don't mean to make a poll, but as a discussion.

Here are my opinions on a few:
I have looked at the lists at Wikipedia, and have made some approximations on who will order which aircraft. I do understand that some users will disagree, especially for United.

Delta, American - 95% chance of 787, 5% chance of A350
Avianca, Aeromexico - 85% chance of 787, 15% chance of A350
United, Alitalia, British Airways - 60% chance of 787, 40% chance of A350
Lufthansa - 55% chance of 787, 45% chance of A350
Emirates, Aeroflot, EL AL - 50% chance of 787, 50% chance of A350
Air France - 40% chance of 787, 60% chance of A350
Gulf Air - 30% chance of 787, 70% chance of A350

What are your opinions?
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N328KF
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:43 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
Delta, American - 95% chance of 787, 5% chance of A350

Delta is in Chapter 11, and that can result in rapidly different corporate directions as a result. With AA, I think it is a 0% chance for the A350.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
Alitalia744
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:45 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 1):
Delta is in Chapter 11, and that can result in rapidly different corporate directions as a result. With AA, I think it is a 0% chance for the A350.

Delta Air Lines is committed to Boeing for everything above 120 seats. So I'd say it is a 95-100% chance they'll order Boeing.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
Avianca, Aeromexico - 85% chance of 787, 15% chance of A350

AM is probably 100% hell bent on the 787.

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
United, Alitalia, British Airways - 60% chance of 787, 40% chance of A350

UAL and BA I'll agree with, but will say AZ will be ordering the 787 in the near future.
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:49 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 1):
Delta is in Chapter 11, and that can result in rapidly different corporate directions as a result.

Delta's goal is a simplified fleet, and if Airbus were ordered, this would break the goal. Before the Boeing/MD merger, Delta applied for an exclusivity deal with Boeing, along with American and Contintenal. After the merger, it was voided due to EU requirements. Even after the merger, Delta still hasn't ordered Airbuses.

Delta has also operated Airbuses before, ex-PanAm A310s. They did not fit in to the fleet very well and were retired shortly.
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aa1818
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:54 am

Hey I think those are pretty solid predictions....did u give the A350 the 5% for AA and DL out of pity or do u think they could actually order the A350. I have nothing against Airbus or the A350, but I just can't see AA or DL ordering an Airbus widebody especially not for what needs replacing in their fleets. Same goes for AM but for them perhaps 90% Boeing, 10% Airbus since a new investor/ owner could change things. Other than those I'd say you'r spot on.

As for ElAl, 6 months ago they would be up there with DL and AA but since tlk of the A330 came up i think your prediction reflects the general sentiment of uncertainty!!

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AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
SNATH
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 3:57 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
United, Alitalia, British Airways - 60% chance of 787, 40% chance of A350

Given Tilton's recent comments:

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/2727648/

I'll give UA a higher than 60% chance in ordering the B787.

Tony
Nikon: we don't want more pixels, we want better pixels.
 
Rj111
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 4:09 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
Lufthansa - 55% chance of 787, 45% chance of A350

I could actually see LH ending up with both, in the long run.
 
columba
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 4:16 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 3):
Delta has also operated Airbuses before, ex-PanAm A310s.

They even ordered additional ones.

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 6):
I could actually see LH ending up with both, in the long run.

Me, too - I could also see one type operated by DE the other with LH.
At the moment I see high chances for the 787 though, especially with the -10 being offered now.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Cruiser
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:08 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
Emirates, Aeroflot, EL AL - 50% chance of 787, 50% chance of A350

EK would probably be classed as 70% 787 with all the rumblings as of late.

James
Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
 
planetime
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:10 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Thread starter):
Emirates, Aeroflot, EL AL - 50% chance of 787, 50% chance of A350

I would say EK has more chances of being with 787 than 350 specially after 787-10 was launched.
 
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yellowtail
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RE: Chances Of Airlines Ordering The 787 Vs. The A350

Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:36 am

Could TA be in the running for some A350 or some 78s......seeing as to their airbus stance as of late I would say it is more 350ish...but can they afford to wait that long.

I know one of their senior management really well and they keep telling me that TA is seriously looking at MAD/CDG/FRA and even TPE because They are being squeezed by SA)">CO/AA/CM/DL/AM and they got no way to currently grow in the existing SA)">NA/SA market...so they must look further away. Problem with this is that IB has beaten them to MAD already in most of Central America and a CM launch looks immenient too.
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