mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:58 am

From the orders thread:

Airbus:

Totals
Gross: 90
Net: 66
Pending: 174

Boeing

Totals
Gross: 261
Net: 261
Pending: 260

With Net and pending added, that gives Boeing a 521 to 240 lead this year. Even that is misleading because Airbus has a much higher percentage of pending to firm orders. The poor quality pending orders are about equal: Primaris, Qatar -- maybe favoring Airbus a little. These numbers don't include the 24 jets ordered by AirTran.

However, it looks like a banner year after a slow start for Boeing. Farnborough might equal things out a little. SIA and EK's huge orders could make this a slaughter.

Airbus picked the wrong time in the cycle to get caught without a competitive widebody. To understand why this happened we only need to go back a couple of years:

Toronto Star, Dec 2003
Airbus SAS said Boeing Co. is greatly overestimating the potential market for the 7E7 Dreamliner and that it's not planning a response to the proposal because it already has a plane that's more economical. The Chicago-based plane maker is unlikely to sell more than 900 of the planes over the next 20 years, said John Leahy, Airbus's chief commercial officer. Leahy also said that the A330-200, as it is, already offers operating economics comparable to the proposed Boeing plane. "We don't see that as an overwhelming case for the airlines to switch to Boeing's plane," he said.

[Edited 2006-04-27 20:58:59]
The dude abides
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:06 am

Quoting MrComet (Thread starter):
The poor quality pending orders are about equal: Primaris, Qatar

So you rate a possible Qatar Airways order as a "poor quality" order?

Quoting MrComet (Thread starter):
However, it looks like a banner year after a slow start for Boeing. Farnborough might equal things out a little. SIA and EK's huge orders could make this a slaughter.

And we shouldn't forget the ILA in May. As I said before - it's too early to judge the order race.


PH

[Edited 2006-04-27 21:12:35]
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:08 am

Just wait. Airbus hordes orders for the airshows where they can "trounce" Boing in Public.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13762
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:11 am

The year is young. Relax people.

Doesn't everyone know Airbus sells 75% of their planes at airshows, and sells 50% of their planes in December, which means they still have 125% of their orders yet to come?  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:11 am

Sorry Planehunter for not being more specific. The 777s for Qatar are certainly a poor quality order as they have said they might not get them. The A350s is probably a sure Airbus order but for what A350 and for what time frame? That makes it a little tentative for being signed this year in any case.
The dude abides
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23081
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:12 am

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060426/sfw160.html?.v=3 states that the 787 production line is now completely sold out for the first three years, so that might help kick-start some A350 sales soon.

[Edited 2006-04-27 21:15:05]
 
mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:15 am

Yeah, but Boeing also said they'll decide in September whether they'll open a second one. I am sure that is being discussed in any active negotiation. They wouldn't have studied this unless it was something they were getting pressured on.

[Edited 2006-04-27 21:16:08]
The dude abides
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:18 am

Quoting MrComet (Reply 4):
Sorry Planehunter for not being more specific. The 777s for Qatar are certainly a poor quality order as they have said they might not get them.

Ok, got your idea.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 2):
Just wait. Airbus hordes orders for the airshows where they can "trounce" Boing in Public.

True, and the media jump on it. The PR machine works perfectly during airshows.


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:27 am

There's a good article in BusinessWeek today:
Boeing Straightens Up and Flies Right

Quote:
The company's stock has jumped nearly 50% in the past year. It is posting record earnings and aircraft sales. Meanwhile, the company's defense business remains strong.

Boeing generated $5.5 billion in free cash flow last year, up from $2.3 billion in 2004.

Another key to Boeing's success: a better sales mix. The company is winning the majority of widebody airplane orders, which generate much higher profit margins than do smaller, narrowbody jets. In 2005 it booked 438 widebody orders, vs. just 166 for chief rival Airbus. Those sales are boosting Boeing's profit margins to new heights.

Commercial airplane operating margins have averaged just 4.5% over the past 25 years and have never exceeded 10.3% for a full year during that period. Boeing is forecasting commercial airplane margins of over 10% next year and possibly 12% after 2008.

http://businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnfl.../apr2006/nf20060427_0379_db016.htm
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
starrion
Posts: 972
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:19 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:33 am

Every year here in Boston our local baseball team shoots up to first place in the league and looks wonderful. But we know this, the common saying is "See me in September." (just before the playoffs)

Airbus saves order for airshows. Last year in June they booked 288 orders at the airshow. (interestingly, the Qatar orders have still not been firmed.)

See me in January.
Knowledge Replaces Fear
 
aa1818
Posts: 1516
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:03 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 4:59 am

I love seeing airlines around the world buy new planes etc, and am not entirely favourable to either boeing or airbus although my airline of choice is more of a boeing customer than airbus, however, while airbus may leave orders for airhows, after last year- who's gonna announce orders at Farnborough???
SQ, EK, EY, GF, CI, More Chinese orders, Latin American Carriers, IB, LH, AF, KL, BA????? while it may seem like a lot, I think most mof those carriers can go either way when it comes to A380, A350 and 787, 777, 748, so really Airbus could potentially not have THAT many orders to announce.

Now i'm not saying Airbus is dead blah blah blah like mahy here like to do, but I am saying Airbus must be concerned since many airlines have already chosen the 787 and it is likely that for one reason or another others may follow suit.

Cheers
AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 5:08 am

Quoting MrComet (Thread starter):
Farnborough might equal things out a little.

Farnborough might reverse it, though that would be a big surprise.
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 5:28 am

Quoting Starrion (Reply 9):
Airbus saves order for airshows. Last year in June they booked 288 orders at the airshow. (interestingly, the Qatar orders have still not been firmed.)

I think you are confusing "announced" with "booked". At the end of June, they actually booked 80 orders, with a further 23 in July. As you say, the Qatar "order" still has not been booked.
 
mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 5:39 am

Well, Airbus didn't impress in Singapore. While I agree that Singapore isn't as big as Paris or Farnsborough, it would be the logical place to announce sales in the hottest market. One down, three to go.

I agree Airbus can expect a bounce at the airshows, but I wouldn't expect a reversal. As far as the Leahy's year end sale event (which seems to end in February), that might be why Airbus is so far behind. He cannibalized the Chinese and other sales to add them to last years numbers.

I think the EK and SIA announcements are the key. That's about 150 to 200 planes. That is enough to swing it even or give Boeing an insurmountable lead.

It still looks to be a good year for everyone. The industry is on track for 1200 to 1500 planes this year -- enough to build backlog again. Wow.
The dude abides
 
boeingfanyyz
Posts: 970
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:12 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 5:41 am

Best news I've heard all day.

Interesting, though, how the 380 has not really boosted Airbus' sales. I guess it's probably another failure, like th 340 series.

Cheers,
Boeingfanyyz  airplane 

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely mine and were not meant to hurt Airbus supporters' feelings.*
"If it aint boeing, it aint going!", "Friends are like condoms...they protect you when things get hard!"
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 5:48 am

With Boeing up to 310 announced B737 orders in the first 4 months, they are on a pace to break last year's record of 574.

Total B737 orders are now over 6400!
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 12:25 pm

Quoting Starrion (Reply 9):
Airbus saves order for airshows

I agree that they sometimes defer announcements for a month or two, Starrion (and others). But someone will have to explain to me what the business sense of deferring the announcement of ALL orders until July could be?

This month so far, Boeing have announced 109 firm orders (the 85 already on their website, plus 24 for Airtran announced today). Airbus have announced just 5 (the A340s for Kingfisher). That brings the annual totals so far to Boeing 285, Airbus 95. I can't believe that Airbus would deliberately allow the figures to show a 3:1 advantage to Boeing for three whole months, just to make some sort of 'splash' at Farnborough in July.

In any case, if Airbus do in fact have literally hundreds of 'hidden orders', how did they secure the agreement of the airlines concerned to deferring the announcements? Airlines have shareholders too, and it is the duty of management to keep the shareholders informed. If any airlines have in fact placed billions of dollars' worth of firm orders and then agreed to keep the facts secret for three months, surely their management will be 'swinging from the yardarms' the moment their shareholders find out about the deception?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13762
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 1:00 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 16):
how did they secure the agreement of the airlines concerned to deferring the announcements?

well, that's not hard. in many industries agreements are reached and announced at trade shows. it brings PR to everyone involved, it also creates a kind of artificial deadline to force both parties to come to terms on sticking points, etc.

not to say that's how everyone does it, but it isn't such a huge imposition.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 1:13 pm

Agree entirely that the placing of orders is often timed to suit publicity needs, Ikramerica. But the implication in this case is that actual ORDERS are being placed, but not announced. I don't reckon that a delay of several months between orders and announcements is credible in business terms.

If, as you suggest, Airbus are delaying the actual placement of orders to suit airshow timings, it follows that those are not 'orders' at all; we're back to Forgeard's favourite term, 'commitments'.

But if that IS the case, I can't see Airbus voluntarily delaying signature of orders they could secure right now, as far ahead as July, for publicity reasons. After all, one bomb on Iran and all such 'commitments' would evaporate......
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 1:21 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
in many industries agreements are reached and announced at trade shows.

Yes, but NAV20s point is a good one....it's unlikely Airbus is hording large numbers of firm sales to wait months for an airshow. Many airlines have fiduciary responsibilities to announce done deals that affect stock price and to withhold this data for too long would be wrong.

Airbus salesmen might be targeting customers to make decisions in time for airshows and withholding announcements around an airshow but I think that the order numbers reflect a fast start for Boeing and a slow start for Airbus. That can be coincidence, sure. But one-third of the year is finished and while Boeing has added significantly to its backlog, Airbus might be actually decreasing it. And the pending orders which are usually the near time final orders don't look so hot either.

As a possible investor, i would also be concerned. Airbus has had lots of order cancellations and many of the orders on its books don't look so good.

My point isn't to bash Airbus .... its way of accounting for sales just isn't as consistent or as conservative as Boeings. It does reflect what i think is a possible new reality -- this may be the big turning year in sales for Boeing if SIA and EK breaks their way.

[Edited 2006-04-28 06:25:26]
The dude abides
 
irobertson
Posts: 409
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2006 11:35 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 1:39 pm

How many weeks or years will go on before people just give up posting on these ridiculous "Airbus sucks Boeing is better, and they're getting more orders, and the A350 is crap and needs to be redesigned thirty two more times and after that it will still suck..."

People. Puh-lease. I am tired of seeing another A vs B thread making the top list on the front page. It's pointless, it's inconclusive, and its a waste of space and bandwidth. Lets talk about something a tad more interesting on this forum besides having two dozen active threads on the never ending debate about which company makes better airplanes.

*steps off soapbox* Thank you, I needed to get that off my chest. And flame me, go ahead, see if I give a damn!
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 1:46 pm

Quoting Irobertson (Reply 20):
How many weeks or years will go on before people just give up posting on these ridiculous "Airbus sucks Boeing is better, and they're getting more orders, and the A350 is crap and needs to be redesigned thirty two more times and after that it will still suck..."

1)you don't have to participate on these threads... Wink
2)should have been around a few years ago when the Airbus kool-aid cheerleaders were having a field day at Boeing's expense...
3)this is an aviation forum, and the topics discussed are some of the most important in the industry...especially given how ILFC and SQ have talked about the A350 (it will do fine in sales)
4)welcome to A.net.. Smile

by the way, I love both...Boeing and Airbus..


MyAviation.net:
Click here for bigger photo!
Photographer © Jacobin777




MyAviation.net:
Click here for bigger photo!
Photographer © Jacobin777

"Up the Irons!"
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:22 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 16):
I agree that they sometimes defer announcements for a month or two, Starrion (and others). But someone will have to explain to me what the business sense of deferring the announcement of ALL orders until July could be?

As I said before - we shouldn't forget the Internationale Luft- und Raumfahrtausstellung in Berlin (ILA), taking place only a few weeks from now in May. Airbus has always announced massive orders at the show in the past. The show is an Airbus playground so I would very surprised not to see any important orders.

PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 3:39 pm

Fair point, PH. And they have their Annual General Meeting, and announce their final 2005 figures/first qtr. 2006 results/2006 'outlook', on Thursday of next week.

To paraphrase the old saying, 'We shall hear what we shall hear.'  

[Edited 2006-04-28 08:54:44]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 5:36 pm

Quoting Irobertson (Reply 20):
How many weeks or years will go on before people just give up posting on these ridiculous "Airbus sucks Boeing is better, and they're getting more orders, and the A350 is crap and needs to be redesigned thirty two more times and after that it will still suck..."

In a horse race, I guess the person betting on the horse that is bring up the rear is always going to not like any analysis on the race. I don't dislike Airbus and Boeing and why do you assume any criticism of Airbus is bashing.

I see it as an interesting industrial issue. Airbus made the same mistake Detroit automakers did on the eve of the 1973 embargo -- they emphasized big gas guzzling cars that made good profits. They've done it again with their SUVs. The Japanese auto makers weren't smart -- their cars just happened to be tailor made for chronic gas shortages and high price so they won big. Airbus went big. Boeing almost did too with the Sonic Cruiser.

Airbus will be in the race again but not for awhile. The A350 is the first step and its interesting to see what they will do.
The dude abides
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 6:36 pm

Quoting MrComet (Reply 19):
And the pending orders which are usually the near time final orders don't look so hot either.

Not sure what orders you are talking about, they all seem to be pretty safe. Even the BG pending order has been put back on the agenda by the airline.

At Boeing' side we have 20 787's and 20 738's for Primaris, 20 777's for QR and 10 787's aswel as 18 738's from a near bankrupt Garuda, that are at risk of never being firmed up.

Quoting MrComet (Reply 19):
Airbus has had lots of order cancellations and many of the orders on its books don't look so good.

This comment to, need to be supported with examples, if you dont mind.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 16):
I can't believe that Airbus would deliberately allow the figures to show a 3:1 advantage to Boeing for three whole months

At this point in time, who else, except a few people on these forums care how many orders Airbus has announced? Airbus has shown in the past that a few 100 orders during an airshow can be announced. That's obviously no reason to say that they WILL do it again, but the possibility is there.

Quoting Irobertson (Reply 20):
How many weeks or years will go on before people just give up posting on these ridiculous "Airbus sucks Boeing is better, and they're getting more orders

If you do a search, you will notice that no such posts have been posted during the first 10 weeks of the year, as Airbus was ahead with the order count, untill QF firmed up their 787 order.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 22):
Airbus has always announced massive orders at the show in the past. The show is an Airbus playground so I would very surprised not to see any important orders.

Perhaps LH will make an anouncement. Other airlines that come to mind are Easyjet, Air Madrid, Egypt Air, Qatar Airways, Gulf Air and ELAL.
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
 
User avatar
glideslope
Posts: 1423
Joined: Sun May 30, 2004 8:06 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 7:48 pm

Quoting Starrion (Reply 9):
Airbus saves order for airshows. Last year in June they booked 288 orders at the airshow. (interestingly, the Qatar orders have still not been firmed.)

Those were the days when operators actually trusted them. IMO, those days no longer exhist. Period.

Airbus needs to make drastic changes in it's operational structure. Airbus' problems are not about the assembly of it's products. It's problems are the way the product makes it's way to the production line.

IMO, they are without question, completely clueless when it come to market forcasting.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
User avatar
PanAm_DC10
Crew
Posts: 3799
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2000 7:37 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 7:55 pm

How about a bit of equality in the outlook for the year? Ok, so Boeing have started very well with last years momentum carrying over and they are booking firm orders at a more rapid pace than Airbus.

But it's only April! and as several have mentioned various RFPs have yet to be decided which could quite qickly change the numbers year to date. Additionally with several Trade Shows scheduled it is well known that Airbus do make announcements at these events, which could again tilt the balance in favour of one OEM over the other rather rapidly.

Let's rewind to last year, the EXACT same month as today. April 28th 2005 to see how Boeing was talking;

http://www.travelbiz.com.au/articles/46/0c02e946.asp

``We'll beat them this year,'' said Scott Carson, Chicago-based Boeing's vice president of commercial aircraft sales, at a press conference near Seattle yesterday. He didn't give a full-year forecast for orders. ``The trick will be keeping momentum going past the usual peaks,'' including the Paris air show in June, when airlines typically place orders for aircraft.

As you can see, that's how Mr Scott Carson thought Boeing would do in 2005 and this is how Airbus responded to his statement;

``We've only just finished the first quarter, the year isn't over yet,'' said Barbara Kracht, a spokeswoman for Airbus, in a telephone interview.

This is a link to the A.net thread that discussed the issue at the time

Well, we all know how 2005 ended in unit sales, if one OEM is having a good run, rest assured that the other OEMs Sales Teams are working on other deals just as hard. As 2005 taught us all. It's best to wait for year end to see whom has outsold whom in terms of units.

Regards, PanAm_DC10
Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 7:55 pm

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 26):
Those were the days when operators actually trusted them. IMO, those days no longer exhist. Period.

Airbus needs to make drastic changes in it's operational structure. Airbus' problems are not about the assembly of it's products. It's problems are the way the product makes it's way to the production line.

IMO, they are without question, completely clueless when it come to market forcasting.

Thank God you have a clue.  sarcastic  sarcastic  sarcastic 
 
Halibut
Posts: 943
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:43 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 8:48 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 22):
As I said before - we shouldn't forget the Internationale Luft- und Raumfahrtausstellung in Berlin (ILA), taking place only a few weeks from now in May. Airbus has always announced massive orders at the show in the past. The show is an Airbus playground so I would very surprised not to see any important orders.

PH,
I too would not be too surprised to see some important orders for Airbus at Farnborough "A320's". However , this year for Airbus is unique . Lets not forget about the "Pickle" -Airbus's current A350 Dilemma ! And high fuel prices , which seem to favor Boeing at this time !
Airbus In Pickle Over A350-2 Redesign Or Not 2-II (by Halibut Apr 20 2006 in Civil Aviation)


I have a hard time believing blue chip airlines can commit to the A350 at this time , especially when many Blue chip airlines like SQ are " at this time " criticsizing the current A350 . Furthermore , a pivatol decision is currently being made on the A350 as we speak . Making it that much more difficult for airlines to see what the true A350 is or will be.

The A340 ...., well ? Yes , it has out sold its Boeing counterpart. However , we all know that this situation will not last " especially with high fuel prices ". And regarding the A380 & even the 747-8 , airlines appear to be in a wait & see mode until the A380 flys in commercial service .

Farnborough should indeed be interesting this year !!! It will be time for Airbus to show its hand !

So the question is ?

Will Airbus have a Pair , 2 Pair , Full House or 5 of a Kind ???


 scratchchin 


Halibut
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
aa1818
Posts: 1516
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2006 2:03 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 8:56 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 28):
Thank God you have a clue.

Was that really necessary????? Instead of complaining about someone else's opinion or making somewhat personal attacks, why not give an opinion or some substance??????...back to the topic...

I think it's far too early to say that Airbus has no hope at catching up with Boeing. After all, the lead isn't that big, and we know that Airbus will be pulling out all the tricks to hold QR and get EK and SQ. With those orders, i'm sure Airbus would pass Boeing. Boeing made some silly statements in the past. Perhaps the english language isn't their forte- instead of saying 'we will beat them' they should have tried 'if our year continues like this we are certain to ruffle some feathers over there in France-many' (France + Germany). It would have seemed confident given a clear indication as to their intentions, but at the same time made them look less like idiots when they were thrashed after Airbus got all of their 150 from China (to be disputed, but it won't change anytime soon).

Airbus has made their fair share of PR errors, however, I'm pretty sure that in Tolouse, they are not frantic because Boeing is beating them. Airbus will nab some great orders this year and I am sure we will witness another closely contensted race some October!

Cheers
AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
vinniewinnie
Posts: 628
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2005 4:23 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:07 pm

Quoting Boeingfanyyz (Reply 14):
Best news I've heard all day.

Interesting, though, how the 380 has not really boosted Airbus' sales. I guess it's probably another failure, like th 340 series.

Cheers,
Boeingfanyyz

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely mine and were not meant to hurt Airbus supporters' feelings.*

And by expressing your well known view confirmed by your nickname you are contributing to this silly A vs B war!

Both haven't said their last words. Neither does the B767 actually!

Only on 2006-12-31 will we be able to acknowledge who the real "winner" is!
 
starrion
Posts: 972
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:19 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 9:43 pm

"Only on 2006-12-31 will we be able to acknowledge who the real "winner" is!"

You mean 2007-1-31 don't you?

I think we are seeing the start of a revolution in aviation as more efficient planes take over. We are lucky to see an entire generation of new planes take over the world's air fleets.
Knowledge Replaces Fear
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23081
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 10:24 pm

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 26):
IMO, (Airbus is) without question, completely clueless when it come to market forcasting.

One could say the same about LH, SQ, VS, QF, EK, AF, and all the other airlines who ordered the A380.

But one shouldn't. Just as one shouldn't say that Airbus was clueless for creating it. Nor should one say they were clueless when they created the A350.

I think you would agree that a "clean-sheet" commercial airliner is not something one creates in a few weeks. The A380 program is a decade or so old, and when you add in the Sonic Cruiser and 7E7 predecessors, the 787 program will also be about that old when it enters service. The world has changed a great deal since both of the programs were launched, yet both were driven by the same goal - improving efficiency.

Some claim Boeing was "prescient" by not creating a "true" VLA, while forgetting the 745/746/74X programs, all of which would have competed with the A380 (well, maybe not the 745, so much). If the airlines had wanted them, Boeing would have built them. But the airlines wanted an all-new design that could serve them for the next three decades as the 747 had the previous three.

However, Boeing just didn't feel sinking $15 billion into a brand-new VLA was an effective use of capital, especially when they were losing the small to mid-size widebody market to the A330 and the A320 family was a serious competitor to their 737NG. Boeing's forecasts showed that 777-sized planes were becomming the "norm" for long-haul travel as they were more efficient then the 747. And their forecasts showed airports like LHR were slot-restricted because of the narrowbodies flying in. Airlines could swap frequency for capacity to free-up slots, so the VLA was, in Boeing's opinion, not the only choice for operators at such airports.

The 787 was designed to be a more effective and efficient competitor to the A330 family. Airbus responded with the A350, based on the tried-and-true A330 family with newer, more efficient engines and some other improvements. Both planes compared relatively favorably, with the Airbus' additional passenger capacity being counter-balanced by the 787's better perceived efficiency.

What worked for Boeing was that oil prices skyrocketed, thanks to actual and feared instability in many of the world's oil producers and increased demand from China and India as their economies continued to grow and industrialize. As the price of fuel rose, the "efficiency percentage gap" increased. And then Boeing closed the "capacity gap" by offering "standard" 17" seating instead of "enhanced" 19-20" seating.

Yet Airbus has responded, within certain design constraints Boeing doesn't have. They've continued to tweak the design to make it better. One can say the same for Boeing and the 747, which has certain design constraints Airbus doesn't have with the A380. If Boeing made a wider 747 fuselage, for example, they could put more people and things in it, too.  Wink
 
klmcedric
Posts: 696
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 11:19 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:21 pm

Quoting Boeingfanyyz (Reply 14):
Best news I've heard all day.

Interesting, though, how the 380 has not really boosted Airbus' sales. I guess it's probably another failure, like th 340 series.

Cheers,
Boeingfanyyz

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely mine and were not meant to hurt Airbus supporters' feelings.*

Interesting, though, how your post has not really boosted this threads quality.
I guess it's probably another failure, like many of your other posts!

Cheers,
KLMcedric

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely mine and were not meant to
hurt Boeingfanyyz supporters' feelings.
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:31 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 16):
But someone will have to explain to me what the business sense of deferring the announcement of ALL orders until July could be?

I can't see what's in it for the airline. When an airline like Air Pacific announces a small order for the 787 in April, it gets to have the limelight all to itself for a couple of days. It even gets it's very own thread on a.net  sarcastic 

If it was announced at an airshow it might quickly be eclipsed by an order for SQ, followed by one for EK, followed by one for...

Saving up orders for airshows is all about publicity for Airbus, not the customers.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:40 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 25):

At Boeing' side we have 20 787's and 20 738's for Primaris, 20 777's for QR and 10 787's aswel as 18 738's from a near bankrupt Garuda, that are at risk of never being firmed up.

Every single frame which you mentioned would easily be taken up by other carriers who have already ordered them...and QR did Boeing a favour by not taking their 787 slots, as it gave another advantage to negotiate with QF......


Stitch....good post!
"Up the Irons!"
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:45 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 27):
Well, we all know how 2005 ended in unit sales, if one OEM is having a good run, rest assured that the other OEMs Sales Teams are working on other deals just as hard. As 2005 taught us all. It's best to wait for year end to see whom has outsold whom in terms of units.

And more importantly, are there any orders that can be cooked for the books.

I really think that Boeing is going to pull the numbers this year (and I really believe that they did it last year...I really suspect that Airbus would have gotten slapped down for the China order if they were under SOX). I don't see the existing A350 as competitive over the long run with the 787. Airbus is hoping that they can freeze the 787/350 races long enough to get a new 350 out there, but the Boeing guys are making deals and locking contests down. Furthermore Airbus's 320 line has a very healthy backlog, but there is room to seel on the 737 line, helping to negate the 320's advantages.

Finally you have the complete death of the A340 line. Airbus might seel some on a fire sale, but I don't think any major carrier would go for a 340 now if they didn't already have a ton of them in their fleet.
 
474218
Posts: 4510
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:27 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:48 pm

Quoting Starrion (Reply 9):
(interestingly, the Qatar orders have still not been firmed.)

I don't see how any airline can have a "firm order" for the A350 when Airbus does not have a "firm" design. The final design that Airbus settles on may not be compatible with the original design and you may see other airlines back out. Or Airbus may not change and some other airlines may cancel. Airbus has a real "dammed if I do and dammed if I don't" problem.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:04 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 37):
Finally you have the complete death of the A340 line.

Funnily enough, AirFrnt, Airbus just announced orders for five A340s from Kingfisher.

That's the good news. The bad news is that (believe it or not) that is the ONLY order Airbus has announced so far this month - bringing their (gross) order total for 2006 so far to 95 frames.....

Personally I don't believe for a moment that Airbus are saving up orders for big announcements at airshows. I've said before that I'm a firm believer in 'Occam's Razor' - the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. So I reckon that the reason Airbus isn't announcing many orders is that they're not GETTING many orders.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23081
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 12:28 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 39):
Personally I don't believe for a moment that Airbus are saving up orders for big announcements at airshows. I've said before that I'm a firm believer in 'Occam's Razor' - the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

Considering the comments Airbus is getting about the A350, I would think it would be to their distinct disadvantage to wait until July and then suddenly announce 50-100 orders for the plane.

Right now the A350 is being publicly detracted by some large customers and the 787 continues to announce new orders, including reaching the "milestones" of 350 frames and three years' worth of production sold. If Airbus is indeed sitting on orders for the plane, they need to announce them now, so they can say "we understand some customers have issues with some of our design choices, however other customers [show models with liveries of new orders] have faith that the A350 is the right plane at the right time. We will, of course, continue to strive to make it an even better plane, and look forward to announcing more customers."

If they wait till Farnsborough, it will start to look like the only reason those orders were signed is because Airbus was "desperate" to get "any sale" to prop up the line, so analysts (inside and outside a.net) will look at those orders not as a validation of the A350 design, but more as a validation of "you make folks an offer they can't refuse, and they won't".  Sad
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:12 am

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 26):
Those were the days when operators actually trusted them. IMO, those days no longer exhist. Period.

That statements lacks any logic. The manufacturer's best selling A320 family hasn't actually changed much since last year - though you suggest "operators" (in general) don't "trust" them any more...  Yeah sure


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:19 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 41):
The manufacturer's best selling A320 family hasn't actually changed much since last year - though you suggest "operators" (in general) don't "trust" them any more...

Unfortunately, PH, the A320 ain't selling too well either. Airbus have sold only 70 so far this year (none yet this month), against 236 737s sold.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:24 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 36):
Every single frame which you mentioned would easily be taken up by other carriers who have already ordered them.

Sure, but the backlog would shrink faster.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 36):
and QR did Boeing a favour by not taking their 787 slots, as it gave another advantage to negotiate with QF......

Yes, but the QR 787 order wasn't really lost by Boeing, since they never commited to them. It's the 777 order I'm taking about wich was announced with a lot of fanfare that is now at risk. With no 777's being sold so far this year, it would be nice for Boeing to firm this one up.
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:27 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 42):
Unfortunately, PH, the A320 ain't selling too well either. Airbus have sold only 70 so far this year (none yet this month), against 236 737s sold.

Which is definitely not a result of "lost trust" as the poster had suggested. And I can only ask again: are four months enough to judge anything?


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:36 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 43):

Sure, but the backlog would shrink faster.

infinitismal given their massive (and ever growing backlog)

Quoting Manni (Reply 43):
Yes, but the QR 787 order wasn't really lost by Boeing, since they never commited to them. It's the 777 order I'm taking about wich was announced with a lot of fanfare that is now at risk. With no 777's being sold so far this year, it would be nice for Boeing to firm this one up.

yes..that might have been a loss for Boeing (I'm assuming that QR will go with the A346), but Boeing might wind up getting a lot of 787-10 orders, which would have basically meant the end of 777-200ER orders anyway.....

I wouldn't be surprised to see Boeing get only a small amount of -300ER and -200LR/-200F orders this year....
"Up the Irons!"
 
mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:48 am

Again, thanks to Hamlet69 and his orders thread, here are the Airbus pending orders. Some are wrong as my numbers don't match.

Pending
Air Blue - 8 A320, 2 A330-200
Air Caraibes - 2 A330-300
Air Madrid - 15 A350-800
Air One - 10 A320
Bangkok Airways - 6 A350-800
Biman Bangladesh - 6 A330-200
East Star Airlines - 10 A320
G.E. Capital - 10 A350-800
Jagson Airlines - 13 A321
Kingfisher Airlines - 5 A340
Qatar Airways - 60 A350
ILFC - 2 A358, 2 A359
Frontier Airlines - 6 A320
GoAir - 10 A320
British Airways - 1 A320, 3 A321
Yemenia - 6 A350

I would say there are still some doubts about ANY A350 order. If Airbus changes the plane, they change the cost. Since slots aren't a problem yet, I think airlines who have orders pending will wait until things are sorted out and the final firming up might not take place until next year.

Eaststar is a new airline and those are always tricky. Jagson is new and entering a crowded market.

That said, I agree Boeing has some poor quality pending orders as mentioned above especially Qatar, Primaris and Garuda.
The dude abides
 
boeingbus
Posts: 1509
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:37 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 1:51 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 39):

Funnily enough, AirFrnt, Airbus just announced orders for five A340s from Kingfisher.

Most likely, those slots are for the EK order Airbus lost. So it's still negative 8 or 15. Not sure the exact A346 EK had on order... 12 + 8 options???
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
mrcomet
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:53 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 2:27 am

I am not sure EK "lost" the order. Airbus started talking upgrade of the A340 and so they put the order on hold until Airbus decided which planes it wants to build. It's natural enough. I am sure they will be converted into an A340NG, A350, A360 or A380. Airbus now has a problem .... nobody knows what the hell they're doing.
The dude abides
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: Boeing Rolling Over Airbus In Orders

Sat Apr 29, 2006 10:33 am

Quoting MrComet (Reply 46):
Pending
Air Blue - 8 A320, 2 A330-200
Air Caraibes - 2 A330-300
Air Madrid - 15 A350-800
Air One - 10 A320
Bangkok Airways - 6 A350-800
Biman Bangladesh - 6 A330-200
East Star Airlines - 10 A320
G.E. Capital - 10 A350-800
Jagson Airlines - 13 A321
Kingfisher Airlines - 5 A340
Qatar Airways - 60 A350
ILFC - 2 A358, 2 A359
Frontier Airlines - 6 A320
GoAir - 10 A320
British Airways - 1 A320, 3 A321
Yemenia - 6 A350

Some possible errors,...

The ILFC order has been firmed up in march.
The frontier order was firmed up in februari..
The Jagson commitment is for 14 aircraft.
The Kingfisher order was announced as a firm order.

The Air one commitment is for 30 A320's

http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...es_items/01_12_06_A320_AirOne.html

A commitment for 30 A320's from Adam Air is missing

http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...eases_items/06_02_23_adam_air.html

The Air Madrid commitment has never been anounced by Airbus.
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS

Who is online