cuprita
Posts: 116
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2005 6:30 pm

No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 6:44 pm

¿Someone know if soon some airline will buy 777?....Because this year the Boeing site have 0 orders
PANASONIC DMZ-FZ5
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2165
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 6:55 pm

It's obviously an out-dated program that needs closing down as it's hemmoraging cash (insert sarcasm emoticon here!)
 
mauriceb
Posts: 2150
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:50 am

No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 6:58 pm

So? did the A380 already received some orders this year? no.


Im sure that we will see an order in the upcomming days/weeks for the 777.
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2165
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 7:09 pm

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 2):
So? did the A380 already received some orders this year? no.

It was a joke, both the T7 and whalejet are great programs that have great backlogs
 
gkirk
Posts: 23345
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2000 3:29 am

RE: �No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 7:13 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 3):
It was a joke, both the T7 and whalejet are great programs that have great backlogs

I love that Whalejet name  rotfl 
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
intothinair
Posts: 388
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2005 3:05 pm

RE: ¿No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 7:16 pm

This must be the 5th topic in a month we had on this subject, getting a lil tirering. Hope this answers your question

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2713093

cheers, Konstantin G.

[Edited 2006-05-05 12:18:33]
 
pavlin
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:34 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 9:51 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 3):
whalejet

Whalejet........ Where did you get this idea from? Scouseflyer

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 1):
It's obviously an out-dated program that needs closing down as it's hemmoraging cas

The best years for 777 are gone. This technology is getting old (1995).
787 and A350 will slowly kill potentinal 777 orders.
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2165
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 9:53 pm

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 6):
The best years for 777 are gone. This technology is getting old (1995).
787 and A350 will slowly kill potentinal 777 orders.

Possibly - if the 787 and A350 prove to be a step change in operating costs but untill larger versions of those 2 appear nothing will match the T7 in capacity (unless you start buying 748s or A380)
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 3617
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Fri May 05, 2006 9:57 pm

Quoting Intothinair (Reply 5):
This must be the 5th topic in a month we had on this subject, getting a lil tirering. Hope this answers your question

Lets create a duplicate topic just to spite you. Ha ha! Just kidding, of course.
 
w3ndytj4n
Posts: 206
Joined: Fri Feb 17, 2006 11:45 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 12:18 am

But last year, T7 has some great orders from several big airline operator. So is it out-dated? I dun think so.
Wendy Tjan
 
boeingbus
Posts: 1509
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:37 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 12:27 am

It's barely 5 months into the year... and folks here on A.NET are worried... geesh, get a life...

The larger the plane the more of a niche it gets... and less orders are expected. IOW, don't expect the A380 to sell as much as the 747...dont expect the 777 to sell as much as the 787... don't expect the 787 to see as much as the A320...
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
Qantas744er
Posts: 1149
Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2005 4:36 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 12:36 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 6):
The best years for 777 are gone. This technology is getting old (1995).

emm. No, how about the 747 series is 36 years old and still sells, so what you talking about?? maybe russian jets are "old" but the 777 isnt for sure.

Cheers Leo
Happiness is V1 in Lagos
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2787
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 12:43 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 6):
The best years for 777 are gone. This technology is getting old (1995).
787 and A350 will slowly kill potentinal 777 orders.

Just the 772 and 772ER are at SOME risk.

The 772LR and LRF and the 773ER will be hot sellers until Y3. I have no doubt.

Freighter versions will probably sell long after Y3 is flying just like the 747F is selling well long after the 773 took its sales.

Or were you just bashing Boeing with no regard to the facts?
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 12:48 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 6):
The best years for 777 are gone.

I'd rather doubt that. The first generation of 777 (-200, -300 and -200ER) is winding down but the 777-300ER is destined to be a huge seller (in my opinion) and the -200F will sell steadily for a long time to come.

Boeing has so far sold 827 777s of all variants. I don't think it's out of the question that they'll hit 1,500 before the line closes down. The 787 may replace the 777 at the lower end of the capacity range but the -300ER and the -200F won't have serious competitors for several years.
 
boeingbus
Posts: 1509
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:37 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 12:55 am

Quoting PM (Reply 13):
I'd rather doubt that. The first generation of 777 (-200, -300 and -200ER) is winding down but the 777-300ER is destined to be a huge seller (in my opinion) and the -200F will sell steadily for a long time to come.

I would add the 772LR to that list. There is nothing like it... even the proposed 787-10 will not be as capable.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 1:04 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 14):
I would add the 772LR to that list. There is nothing like it... even the proposed 787-10 will not be as capable.

True, but I left it out because I just can't see it being a huge seller. It's a niche aircraft and, no doubt, a valuable addition to the line but it'll be the -300ER that rakes in the $$$ for Boeing (and GE).
 
pavlin
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:34 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 1:15 am

Quoting PM (Reply 13):
don't think it's out of the question that they'll hit 1,500 before the line closes down. The 787 may replace the 777 at the lower end of the capacity range but the -300ER and the -200F won't have serious competitors for several years.

More than eleven years of production and it didn't even hit a thousand orders number. Maybe if there wouldn't be A330 and A340 or even A350 (I think they will build a least 300 pax version in 3 class) and maybe enlarged 787.
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 1:37 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 16):
More than eleven years of production and it didn't even hit a thousand orders number.

It would be remarkable if any widebody reached 1,000 sales in a decade. That would mean an average of 100 sales a year - that's quite something. No widebody has ever maintained that kind of sales rate. Take the 767. Being smaller than the 777, you might expect it to have sold more. In fact, it has been on sale for almost 28 years (the first sale was in July 1978) and it has so far amassed "just" 969 - that's an average of 35 a year. The 747 has been on sale for just over 40 years (  wideeyed  ) and has sold 1,430. That's 36 a year.

The first 777 sale was in October 1990. By the end of 2005 (i.e after 15 years) 827 had been sold: an average of 55 a year. By any measure, the 777 is selling far faster than any previous Boeing widebody.
 
787engineer
Posts: 545
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:08 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 1:48 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 16):
More than eleven years of production and it didn't even hit a thousand orders number. Maybe if there wouldn't be A330 and A340 or even A350 (I think they will build a least 300 pax version in 3 class) and maybe enlarged 787.

Wow, in that case the A330 must be a real failure. Afterall, it only got 517 orders in it's first 12 years. What's that? you want to count the a340 too? Well at the end of 2004 (the A330 had been on the market for 12 years, and the A340 almost 14) both the A330 and A340 combined for 891 orders, not much more than the 777 by itself. Get your facts stragiht before you start jumping to conclusions. They're already making a 300 pax version in 3 class for the A350. . .it's called the A350-900.
 
Hamlet69
Posts: 2460
Joined: Thu Mar 09, 2000 2:45 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 1:57 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 16):
More than eleven years of production and it didn't even hit a thousand orders number.

Don't take this the wrong way, but you seriously need to take some time and learn about commercial aviation, both today and in the past, before making posts like this. It clearly shows an ignorance to what this board is about.

Just to add to PM's excellent post: until the advent of the 787, the 777 has been the best-selling widebody jetliner in history.

Regards,

Hamlet69
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2165
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 2:06 am

It's amazing how often a thread can degenerate on here - my post was in jest (It's obviously an out-dated program that needs closing down as it's hemmoraging cash (insert sarcasm emoticon here!) ) as the T7 is a fantastic plane and is unique in being such a large twin.

It is in no way finished.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 2:35 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 6):
The best years for 777 are gone. This technology is getting old (1995).
787 and A350 will slowly kill potentinal 777 orders.

Just about every A350 and B787 ordered so far could potentially have been a B777 order.

Quoting W3ndytj4n (Reply 9):
But last year, T7 has some great orders from several big airline operator. So is it out-dated? I dun think so.

I think 2005 was the last year in which the B777 will garner 100 orders. Now is twilight.

Quoting Qantas744ER (Reply 11):
No, how about the 747 series is 36 years old and still sells, so what you talking about??

Until the B787-10 becomes available, nothing beats the B747-8 SuperJumbo in CASM. The B777 can't make a boast like that.

Quoting PM (Reply 13):

Boeing has so far sold 827 777s of all variants. I don't think it's out of the question that they'll hit 1,500 before the line closes down.

I think 1500 is out of the question. I think 1200 is optimistic. 1000 is likely, but not in the bag yet.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 14):
I would add the 772LR to that list. There is nothing like it... even the proposed 787-10 will not be as capable.

The initial B787-10 will not be able to perform all B777-200LR missions, but Boeing are looking at adding a center 2-wheel bogey and increasing the MTOW. I hestitate to predict when a B787-10ER might EIS (2015 or so perhaps?), but when it does, it will outperform the B777-200LR in payload, range, cabin floor area, LD3 capacity, and CASM. I expect most, if not all, B777-200LRs will be converted to freighters by 2020.
 
787engineer
Posts: 545
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:08 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 2:39 am

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 20):
It's amazing how often a thread can degenerate on here - my post was in jest (It's obviously an out-dated program that needs closing down as it's hemmoraging cash (insert sarcasm emoticon here!) ) as the T7 is a fantastic plane and is unique in being such a large twin.

It is in no way finished.

I thought it was pretty obvious you were just joking afterall you even put (Insert sarcasm emoticon. . )". I just took exception to Pavlin's ignorance of comparing 777's great sales to other widebodies some great, and some not so great. The A330 is a great airplane along with the A320, 737, 777. The A340, 767, 757, are good, but I wouldn't consider them great.
 
A319XFW
Posts: 1519
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:41 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 2:44 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 21):
Quoting PM (Reply 13):

Boeing has so far sold 827 777s of all variants. I don't think it's out of the question that they'll hit 1,500 before the line closes down.

I think 1500 is out of the question. I think 1200 is optimistic. 1000 is likely, but not in the bag yet.

I would say the 1000 mark is very possible if you look at the backlog.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 2:56 am

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 23):

I would say the 1000 mark is very possible if you look at the backlog.

I agree that 1000 is very possible, but 827 includes the backlog.
 
A319XFW
Posts: 1519
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2005 5:41 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 3:13 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 24):
I agree that 1000 is very possible, but 827 includes the backlog.

Ah right, didn't realise that - I couldn't find the status anywhere. Another 30-40 a year over the next 5 or so years should get the 1000 full then.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 3:31 am

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 25):
Another 30-40 a year over the next 5 or so years should get the 1000 full then.

That sounds about right. Perhaps more than that this year and fewer in 2010.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 3:32 am

Quoting PM (Reply 13):

I'd rather doubt that. The first generation of 777 (-200, -300 and -200ER) is winding down but the 777-300ER is destined to be a huge seller (in my opinion) and the -200F will sell steadily for a long time to come.

 checkmark ...the -200LR/-200F/-300ER will still sell in good numbers....

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 21):

The initial B787-10 will not be able to perform all B777-200LR missions, but Boeing are looking at adding a center 2-wheel bogey and increasing the MTOW. I hestitate to predict when a B787-10ER might EIS (2015 or so perhaps?), but when it does, it will outperform the B777-200LR in payload, range, cabin floor area, LD3 capacity, and CASM. I expect most, if not all, B777-200LRs will be converted to freighters by 2020.

a 787 version might eventually oudo the 777-200LR..but even if so, that's a almost a decade away before EIS....and 4-5 after even if carriers start getting their 777's around 2010-2011........

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 21):

I think 1500 is out of the question. I think 1200 is optimistic. 1000 is likely, but not in the bag yet.

I think they will hit the 1000 mark without too much of a problem, but that's nothing to scoff at either...

I also think in a year or two, they will be able to implement more 787 technology into the -200LR/-200F/-300ER to make it even better than it is right now..........
"Up the Irons!"
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2787
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 3:39 am

No Boeing jet has ever had a run less than 1000 IIRC. MD products dont count....

No reason for such a unique plane with no real direct competitor to break that streak.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 3:42 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 27):
I think they will hit the 1000 mark without too much of a problem, but that's nothing to scoff at either...

1000 is an excellent run for any widebody. There is no question that the B777 has been a great success for Boeing.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 27):
I also think in a year or two, they will be able to implement more 787 technology into the -200LR/-200F/-300ER to make it even better than it is right now..........

That's possible, but how much low-hanging fruit is worth the development costs? I think the B777 will get some of the lightweight interior options, but I'm not sure how much else makes sense to adopt.
 
787engineer
Posts: 545
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:08 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 3:46 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 28):
No Boeing jet has ever had a run less than 1000 IIRC. MD products dont count....

AFAIK, the 767 hasn't reached 1,000 yet, it's close but not quite there.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 3:50 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 29):

That's possible, but how much low-hanging fruit is worth the development costs? I think the B777 will get some of the lightweight interior options, but I'm not sure how much else makes sense to adopt.

i completely agree....it will be interesting to see........I think Boeing will probably weigh out some "cost versus improvement" numbers and discuss it with a few carriers....if there are enough takers, they will work on developing more improvents...otherwise,they will stick with some basic things such the one you mentioned above...
"Up the Irons!"
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2787
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 3:52 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 30):
the 767 hasn't reached 1,000 yet

True, but the line is still running, and I am optimistic that it will continue to sell at a low rate for a while, long eough to exceed 1000.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
texfly101
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 6:42 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 4:06 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 28):
No reason for such a unique plane with no real direct competitor to break that streak.

Yes, what with the GE90 capabilities and the 200F, this will continue for quite a while. Even if the A350 takes out the bottom end 200, there is still a lot of legs left with just the 300ER, which is where the majority of the current orders are being logged. The line just ramped up again and there isn't an end in sight what with the luxury long haul and freighter market just starting to develop. This lull is only because of the pent up demand that surged with all those orders last year and is very typical of the cyclical nature of the business. The legacy carriers, when they get their finances back in order, will definitely come back to the table. Almost every large carrier that is still looking, is looking at a 787/777 mix. So I'm not worried about it and I doubt that B management is either. Got me, they don't consult me on these matters for some strange reason...(now that last sentence was just a joke, right everyone? I'm not serious, no one needs to start hacking about it, just making this disclaimer so that the real intent of that sentence won't be misconstrued... Smile
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 4:10 am

My guess is that the last 777 off the line (whenever that happens) will be a freighter. In other words, what happened to the A300 & DC-10/MD-11 lines will happen to the 777.

I can't quickly find how many A300s were sold as freighters but 59 of 200 MD-11s built were sold as freighters. And it won't be long till all those that are still flying of the other 141 have been converted to freighters. There's a crude but, I think, revealling indication of demand for such freighters. (And the supply of MD-11s is finite.)

Last year Boeing sold 23 777Fs.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 21):
I think 1500 is out of the question. I think 1200 is optimistic. 1000 is likely, but not in the bag yet.

My guess is that the freighter market alone will take Boeing to the 1,000 mark. That's 173 new orders for freighters over, say, the next decade. I'd say that's conservative.

It then beggars belief that Boeing will never sell another passenger version. We know that Cathay intend to take more and it seems only a matter of time before BA orders 777-300ERs. Not one of the new generation 777s has yet been sold in China. Etihad, Qatar (don't rule it out yet), Alitalia, Northwest, United, Qantas, Air New Zealand, blah, blah, blah... Another 100 777-300ER sales? Another 200? Easy. Suddenly we're at 1,200 ("optimistic"?) and there's still no replacement for the 777-300ER on the horizon. OK, 1,500 may be at the top end of the range but there's no way that the 777 line will close down before it passes 1,200.

Just my guess.  Wink
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 4:23 am

Quoting PM (Reply 34):
there's still no replacement for the 777-300ER on the horizon.

How far is your horizon? My guess is that a 75 meter B787-11X will replace the B777-300ER. I think two years from now this will be as clear as the B787-10 is today.
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 4:30 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 32):
True, but the line is still running, and I am optimistic that it will continue to sell at a low rate for a while, long eough to exceed 1000.

They need to sell another 31. They've sold 4 so far this year and 19 last year, 9 in 2004 and 11 in 2003. I'd say 1,000 will be touch and go (not counting a big order from the USAF for tankers) since they'd need to be selling them up into around 2008/9 at the current rate. You have to go back to December 1999 to find an order in double figures so it'll continue to be two here and three there. Reaching 31 in "nickels and dimes" will take a little while - and all the time the 787 is getting nearer.
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2787
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 4:35 am

Quoting PM (Reply 36):
(not counting a big order from the USAF for tankers)

IIRC there are other military applications also that may generate orders.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 35):
My guess is that a 75 meter B787-11X will replace the B777-300ER. I think two years from now this will be as clear as the B787-10 is today.

Yeah, maybe. But there has to be a limit beyond which the 787 cannot be stretched and when would such a version be available? Airlines would face the choice of 777-300ERs now (or soon) or a much-stretched 787 in four or so years. Nor are Boeing likely to torpedo sales of the 777-300ER before they're forced to. Look at their initial reluctance to do the 787-10. In that case, Airbus (and EK) pushed them into it. It seems unlikely that Airbus will be attacking the 777-300ER any time soon so why would Boeing do it for them?
 
A342
Posts: 4017
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 4:40 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 12):
Just the 772 and 772ER are at SOME risk

The 772A has already been killed by the A333. The 772A has at max. 10 outstanding orders, while the A333 has some 60 and it's still selling.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 5:23 am

Quoting A342 (Reply 39):
The 772A has at max. 10 outstanding orders

According to the Boeing website, five - four for ANA and one for JAL (all with PW). The last order for the -200 was in December 2001 (for 3 from ANA). I think we can assume that the 777-200 is no longer attractive.
 
A342
Posts: 4017
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 5:25 am

Quoting PM (Reply 40):
I think we can assume that the 777-200 is no longer attractive.

Definitely.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 5:29 am

Quoting PM (Reply 38):
But there has to be a limit beyond which the 787 cannot be stretched

Ultimately, there is the 80x80 box that Airbus, Boeing, and most of the world's large airports all agreed to. A B787-12X would be 81 meters long -- IF each stretch added 240 inches (the difference between the B787-8 and the B787-9). Adding 200 inches to a B787-11X would produce a B787-12X right at the limit.

However, a B787-12X would have serious taxiing problems. The weight penalty for a long thin tube might or might not start to be appreciable. It might be unable to achieve the rotation needed for good takeoff performance. In sum, I think a B787-12X is unlikely.

On the other hand, a B787-11X would have only moderate taxiing difficulties (similar to the A340-600, which is almost exactly the same length). The inherent rigidity of CFRP and the 235 inch fuselage height (nearer the B777's 244 inches than the A340's 222 inches) should obviate any potential structural weight problems of long thin tubes. The 2-wheel center bogey needed to raise the MTOW would be far enough aft to suffice for good rotation. In sum, I can't see any reason why Boeing wouldn't develop a B787-11X (and a B787-10ER using the same undercarriage).

Quoting PM (Reply 38):
Nor are Boeing likely to torpedo sales of the 777-300ER before they're forced to. Look at their initial reluctance to do the 787-10. In that case, Airbus (and EK) pushed them into it.

EK and SQ certainly have pushed Boeing to offer the B787-10. It's not clear that Airbus or the A350 had anything to do with it. That seems to be just A.net speculation.

Quoting PM (Reply 38):
It seems unlikely that Airbus will be attacking the 777-300ER any time soon so why would Boeing do it for them?

The question Boeing will ask, when the time comes, is: Can we make more money selling a B777-300ER or selling a B787-11X?
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 5:47 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
The question Boeing will ask, when the time comes, is: Can we make more money selling a B777-300ER or selling a B787-11X?

If that's the question then it must be related to the cost of developing a 787-11. The 777-300ER development is paid for. What would it cost to develop a 787-11? The only advantage to Boeing would be if they could charge a significant premium for the 787-11 over the 777-300ER. I find that improbable.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
A B787-12X would be 81 meters long -- IF each stretch added 240 inches (the difference between the B787-8 and the B787-9). Adding 200 inches to a B787-11X would produce a B787-12X right at the limit.

Maybe I'm hopelessly stuck in the past but the record of stretches upon stretches isn't good. If we take the 787-8 as baseline, then we have the -9, the -10 and now, you would have us believe, the -11. Even if we take the -9 as baseline the -11 is two stretches away. Perhaps the DC-9-15 up to MD-80 disproves the generalisation but few ever longer stretches have worked. But I'm not an engineer so perhaps I'm wrong.
 
keesje
Posts: 8589
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 5:48 am

So the A340 outsold the B777 this year?

 Wink
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
PM
Posts: 4818
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 5:57 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 44):
So the A340 outsold the B777 this year?

Yep. So far, so good, Keesje. (Though I suspect you have no sense of history!)
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 5:57 am

Quoting PM (Reply 43):

If that's the question then it must be related to the cost of developing a 787-11. The 777-300ER development is paid for. What would it cost to develop a 787-11? The only advantage to Boeing would be if they could charge a significant premium for the 787-11 over the 777-300ER. I find that improbable.

Production costs of a B787 are much, much lower than production costs of a B777. Also, a B787-11X would offer B777-300ER performance but with at least 20 tonnes less OEW and a fuel consumption advantage of roughly 30%. If I were an airline, I'd pay more for that. Also, much of the development cost would be related to the undercarriage, but that needs to be spent anyway to get MTOW up enough for a B787-9ER or B787-10ER or both. I'm fairly confident that we'll see an uprated B787 undercarriage. At that point, development costs (excluding engines) for a B787-11X would probably be about half a $billion.

Quoting PM (Reply 43):
Maybe I'm hopelessly stuck in the past but the record of stretches upon stretches isn't good. If we take the 787-8 as baseline, then we have the -9, the -10 and now, you would have us believe, the -11. Even if we take the -9 as baseline the -11 is two stretches away. Perhaps the DC-9-15 up to MD-80 disproves the generalisation but few ever longer stretches have worked. But I'm not an engineer so perhaps I'm wrong.

CFRP goes a long way (pun intended) to making stretches viable without the penalties of a long thin metal tube.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 44):
So the A340 outsold the B777 this year?

Yes, so far in 2006.  Smile Over the last 12 months, not quite.  Smile
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 6:56 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):
Production costs of a B787 are much, much lower than production costs of a B777. Also, a B787-11X would offer B777-300ER performance but with at least 20 tonnes less OEW and a fuel consumption advantage of roughly 30%. If I were an airline, I'd pay more for that. Also, much of the development cost would be related to the undercarriage, but that needs to be spent anyway to get MTOW up enough for a B787-9ER or B787-10ER or both. I'm fairly confident that we'll see an uprated B787 undercarriage. At that point, development costs (excluding engines) for a B787-11X would probably be about half a $billion.

I think the onus will lie on whether or not the engine manufacturers will be able to develop an engine with enough thrust and efficiency within the next few years..........to a certain extent, Airbus did Boeing a favour by pushing the carriers to develop an engine for the A359..........

until then, the B777-300ER will be the best plane in its class....also, IIRC from what I've read, the 787-10X still will not be able to outperform the 777-200LR in certain missions and freighter service....

it will be interesting to see if Boeing starts addressing these issues, as we really haven't seen (on the surface) any carrier such as EK hounding Boeing to develop a 787-11X...

my take...777 hits 1,000 sales...in the next 2-3 years....
"Up the Irons!"
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 7:20 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 47):
IIRC from what I've read, the 787-10X still will not be able to outperform the 777-200LR in certain missions and freighter service....

Right. The B787-10 will not be able to perform all B777-200LR missions, but those it can perform will be at about 30% less fuel consumption. It's not yet clear that the B787-10 will be able to perform all B777-200ER missions but, if not, it will be close and the B787-10 will be able to perform some missions that neither the B777-200ER nor the B777-200LR can perform.

I'm confident we'll see a B787-10ER when the engines become available that can perform most if not all B777-200LR missions. It would need a MTOW somewhere around 620,000 lbs to match the B777-200LR's payload/range performance. The B787's wing is good for 640,000 lbs. Adding a 2-wheel center bogey should bring the undercarriage up to more than 640,000 lbs. When the engines are ready, the undercarriage will be ready.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 47):

it will be interesting to see if Boeing starts addressing these issues, as we really haven't seen (on the surface) any carrier such as EK hounding Boeing to develop a 787-11X...

It would make no sense for an airline to publicly talk about a B787-11X before the official launch of the B787-10. I guess we'll see a B787-10ER before we see a B787-11X.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 47):
my take...777 hits 1,000 sales...in the next 2-3 years....

I'd say by the end of 2008 is possible, but optimistic. By the end of 2007 seems very, very unlikely.
 
CWFan
Posts: 75
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:58 pm

RE: No 777 Orders In 2006?

Sat May 06, 2006 9:00 am

This is a fascinating discussion. (And a very civil one, too!) It seems that the 787 family is a real gold mine for Boeing, regardless of the 350 upgrades (assuming worst case scenario for B = 50% of market). It seems that Boeing will be able to stretch and modify the 787 family to really produce some spectacular stretches and longer-range planes down the road. Wow.

Thoughts on overall 787 family directions? A 787-8, -9, -10LR/enhanced MTOW as well as a possible 787-11x -- all of these are going to be money-makers down the road. Ring the register, buy some Boeing stock. Wow.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 7BOEING7, Alexa [Bot], CCA, DiamondFlyer, diego727, doulasc, flyabr, flyDTW1992, HAL, INFINITI329, jetblastdubai, ordell, Prinair, Prost, Yahoo [Bot] and 235 guests