leelaw
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End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Mon May 08, 2006 4:21 am

As Boeing works to lock in the final configuration for its new 747-8 aircraft this year, the airframer is also preparing to wind down production on its long-serving 747-400.

Boeing now has fewer than five open production slots left for the remainder of the -400 program, said 747 program head Jeff Peace. Some -400s will still be built while -8s are being produced for flight testing, but the first delivery of the -8 will mark the cutoff for the -400s, Peace said. The current backlog for -400s is 42 aircraft -- all freighters.

Entry into service for the freighter version of the -8 is scheduled in late 2009, with the passenger version -- dubbed the Intercontinental -- following about six months later. Major assembly will begin on the freighter in early 2008, with the first flight slated for the end of that year.


http://www.awstonline.com/avnow/news...omm_story.jsp?id=news/74405056.xml
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solnabo
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Mon May 08, 2006 5:44 am

Gonna be intresting if 748I have the "hot cake factor"...

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Oykie
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Mon May 08, 2006 8:37 pm

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 1):
Gonna be interesting if 748I have the "hot cake factor"...

Even though I truly like the 747, I am afraid that it will not sell like hot cakes. And I guess that is not Boeing's intention. But if the oil price continuous to be this high I expect that all quad's will suffer the same faith. They will be great as freighters only.
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boeingbus
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Mon May 08, 2006 10:13 pm

I thought the following was interesting... sounds very promising...

"Apart from the increased length of the -8, one of the biggest changes is in the wing. The -8 will have a thicker wing than the -400, and other improvements mean that "aerodynamically it is an all-new wing," Peace said. Better aerodynamic performance will be achieved despite the fact that Boeing is dropping the triple-slotted flaps used on the -400 and instead will use a combination of single and double-slotted flaps. The thicker wing also means greater fuel capacity.

The biggest selling point, however, will be better fuel efficiency and trip costs. Boeing calculates the -8F will use more than 17% less fuel per metric ton than the -400F. The new engines contribute the biggest saving, followed by improved aerodynamics and the use of advanced materials. Trip cost will be about the same for the -8F despite its larger size, and metric ton-mile costs will be down 15%.

Boeing's main philosophy for the -8 freighter was to keep the range about the same as for the -400F but increase the cargo capacity by 16% through an 18.3-foot stretch. However, airlines can opt to sacrifice some of the extra payload for more range. So carriers could boost capacity by 20 metric tons to 134 ton while keeping range the same as the -400F's, or they could keep payload at about 114 metric tons and fly 1,000 nautical miles farther. By dropping capacity to about 100 metric tons, carriers could eliminate the Anchorage tech stop on some U.S.-Asia routes, said Peace."
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Ken777
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 7:00 am

I believe that the 748 is going to be a sleeper. No dramatic orders announced, but steady sales over time, each adding to Boeing's profits. The plane doesn't need to set the world on fire, it just needs to keep the production lines going, providing a solid replacement (along with the 777 line) for the fleet of 744s out there.

I believe airlines will be conservative in ordering them, but they will order - both the freighter and the pax versions.
 
FL370
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 7:29 am

heres a question, how many airlines are still expanding internationaly, and in need of new widebodies. i mean most international carriers are set for the next 10-15 years. i think most airlinse won;t upgrade their fleet till maybe 2015-2020. its always like that. it will be slow at first and it will eventually speed up when the demand is higher.

heres my other question. isn't boeing looking at the 797, which will hold twice the A380. are they trying to compete amoung themesleves?
 
JAAlbert
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 7:54 am

If the 748 is a sleeper, it must be in a deep snooze right about now -- not a single passenger order months after its launch. Threads have announced "748 turning heads" but to date it doesn't look like its opening any pocket books.

When can we expect the much discussed imminent orders for the pax version of this plane?
 
11Bravo
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 8:06 am

Quoting FL370 (Reply 5):
isn't boeing looking at the 797, which will hold twice the A380.

Umm, nope. Boeing has said many times that there isn't enough room in the VLA market for more than one OEM. Twice the size of an A380? That's crazy talk.

The Boeing 797 will most likely be the designation for the B737 replacement.
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Ken777
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 1:22 pm

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 6):
If the 748 is a sleeper, it must be in a deep snooze right about now

I think that the 748 is a sleeper for the simple reason that, while most airlines will feel no urgent need to order it, they will be ordering it for 744 replacements. The 380 pulled in a lot of initial orders because it was a new plane - and also because of the launch discounts. After that initial burst it's probably going to be a "sleeper" sales rate for many years - just like the 748. Actually the 380 sales look to be napping these days right along with the 748i . . .

It's ironic that Boeing can afford to live with the slower sales of the pax version because of the freighter sales. A 748 moving down the production line keeps the workers working and the bottom line building, regardless of the version.
 
andessmf
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 1:26 pm

There is a sizable 747F market out there that will eventually need some replacement. I doubt the 748 will have the same impact as the 744, but it will sell. After all, there arent many freighters with a nose door.
 
VC10DC10
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 1:30 pm

How many 747-200 pax aircraft are still in service? Any chance that their operators will be able to get some capital together and effectively skip a generation of aircraft and go straight up to the 748?  Smile
 
zvezda
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 1:45 pm

Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 10):
How many 747-200 pax aircraft are still in service?

Most B747-200s have been retired or converted to freighters.

Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 10):
Any chance that their operators will be able to get some capital together and effectively skip a generation of aircraft and go straight up to the 748?

A chance, yes, but the B777-300ER has about the same capacity as the B747-200 and the trend for the last twenty years has been toward smaller airliners, not larger. If I had a fleet of B747-200s, I would (depending on route structure) more likely be looking at the A350, B777-200ER, B777-200LR, and B787-10. I don't see a lot of B747-200 operators looking to the B747-8 SuperJumbo.
 
andessmf
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 1:47 pm

Passanger 200s are most likely not replaced by 747s. Freight is another matter. Isnt Polar getting rid of their 200s? And how many 200/400 are used as freighters around the world?
 
VC10DC10
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 1:53 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
I don't see a lot of B747-200 operators looking to the B747-8 SuperJumbo.

Oh well, too bad. I've always had a very special place in my heart for the 747 (my username notwithstanding). Maybe Northwest will buy some 747-8s and cascade the 747-400s to replace the 747-200s.

And yes, I know NWA is buying the 787 for more point-to-point flying. But surely on some routes they will want the advantages of having more passengers and a lot more cargo, maybe MSP-NRT, DTW-NRT, and NRT-HKG. And given Northwest's long and beautiful history with the 747, I think the 747-8 is their best option for a new flagship.
 
Carpethead
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Tue May 09, 2006 5:58 pm

747 classic replacement. Here are some operators:
1. TAAG Angola is ridding its fleet of 743s for 772ERs.
2. Who the heck knows JL will do with its 747 classics. Perhaps more 772ER/773ERs or 748 pax. 748 pax doesn't really fit the time frame as they wish to rid its 747 classics by 2010. A380 is probably a no go.
3. PK could opt for 773ERs to replace its 743s.
4. NW: Ch.11, enough said.
5. Other second tier carriers are probably better off getting the hand-me-down 744s that will start to become available starting late this decade and beginning of next.

While six months maybe an eternity for some, that's not the case in the aviation business. Give it some time and the 748/F orders will build. The most likely thing is airlines are awaiting more 748 details and A380 performance numbers that will probably sway potential customers to select either or downgauge to 777s & A340s.
 
deltadc9
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 6:05 am

Quoting FL370 (Reply 5):
heres my other question. isn't boeing looking at the 797, which will hold twice the A380. are they trying to compete amoung themesleves?

There will be no BWB/Y3 for a while which is the only design that could be that big, and it definitely will not be that big. Might not be BWB either, and probably not bigger than the -800 and definitely not bigger than any -900 380

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 6):
If the 748 is a sleeper, it must be in a deep snooze right about now -- not a single passenger order months after its launch. Threads have announced "748 turning heads" but to date it doesn't look like its opening any pocket books.

These are not used cars. The entire process, from RFP to firm order is a very long and drawn out. I would think that would be common knowledge around here.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 12):
And how many 200/400 are used as freighters around the world?

225 or so, with dozens in the pipeline. Half of all air cargo is transported by the 747. This market alone will be be worth the whole 748 project, let alone 748i version, which will be icing on the cash cow cake.
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art
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 7:54 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 15):
Half of all air cargo is transported by the 747. This market alone will be be worth the whole 748 project, let alone 748i version, which will be icing on the cash cow cake.

I think you hit the nail on the head there. Over the next 20 years freight is expected to grow at a higher rate than pax IIRC.

What does it matter if there are no orders being placed for the 748i at the moment? Many 744 replacement sales are bound to come in the future.
 
texfly101
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milest

Wed May 10, 2006 8:12 am

Quoting Art (Reply 16):
I think you hit the nail on the head there. Over the next 20 years freight is expected to grow at a higher rate than pax IIRC

Yep, I agree with this statement and also what DeltaDC9 stated. There is definitely a market for both a nose loading freighter and also a freighter than will serve Asian markets that the A380 won't fit into. The 777F is an expensive option and the 767F is too small at times. The Asian roadway infrastructure is better bypassed by air than constructing new roads during this period of substantial growth. So the freighter market will be a growth area in that region that exceeds even the pax growth.
 
wjcandee
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 8:43 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 9):
There is a sizable 747F market out there that will eventually need some replacement.

Well, there are two kinds of 747F -- the kind that gets used all day every day hauling high-priority, highly-time-sensitive, high-value cargo, and the kind that works shorter, less-regular hours hauling less-valuable, less-time-definite cargo (like, say, fabric). Typically, older, less-dispatch-reliable aircraft have been used for the latter because of their significantly-lower capital cost, and newer aircraft are used for the former. The newer aircraft have the added benefit, of course, of having a lower crew and energy cost, but these used to be mostly outweighed by the higher capital cost. The higher energy prices change this equation somewhat, which is why you're seeing a number of the 742s being parked, and a significant demand for the 744SF and 744BCF. If we presume that energy prices stay high (which isn't necessarily a certainty -- see Warren Buffett's recent comments about the commodities speculators having their last dances at Cinderella's ball before turning back into pumpkins and mice), the demand for the converted 744s should remain high, as should demand for smaller, fuel-efficient freighter types like the MD11.
 
UA772IAD
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 9:01 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 15):
Half of all air cargo is transported by the 747. This market alone will be be worth the whole 748 project, let alone 748i version, which will be icing on the cash cow cake

I've heard that also.
While I can't think of any specific examples where a freighter has suddenly sruged interest in passenger airlines, as most freighters are ex-people carriers, I think that if the 748 is as effective as Boeing promises, then there might be surge in passenger orders.
 
jacobin777
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 9:37 am

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 14):
3. PK could opt for 773ERs to replace its 743s.

PK has some 777-300ER's on order...the should be replacing their rusbucket 743's with them..they will be keeping the older rustbucket 742's as those are combis and are used in service to places such as IAH....

Quoting Texfly101 (Reply 17):
The 777F is an expensive option

actually not, the 777 has great economics..and for some, the 748-F or 744-F might be too large....

we see carriers such as AF and BR order them..with BR changing it from the -200LR to the -200F.....
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Zkpilot
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 9:43 am

NZ is seriously looking at 8x 748 pax a/c to replace its 8 744's. It is not interested at all in the A380 and the 773ER simply isn't big enough for some of NZ's 747 routes.
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ltbewr
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 11:54 am

In a way, it is kinda sad that the last 747-400's will be freighters for one the most important and successful widebody passanger aircraft ever and probably will ever be made. There will continue to be a place for large 4 engine aircraft despite the improvements in ETOPS range.
Still it is good that the 747-800 is an evolution and not a clean sheet design using 21st century tech to improve aerodynamics, lift capacity and manufacturing. By not going to a clean sheet design, Boeing can make an improved aircraft without the huge cost of an all new aircraft and sell the new model cheaper, something important to their customers. Let us hope the -800 will extend the 747 design for another 20 years.
 
SthPacific787
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 12:14 pm

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 21):
NZ is seriously looking at 8x 748 pax a/c to replace its 8 744's. It is not interested at all in the A380 and the 773ER simply isn't big enough for some of NZ's 747 routes

I believe QF will also get on to the 748i bandwagon as a replacement on 744 routes where a 380 is too much Aircraft. If the economics are what Boeing is touting, then it's a given that the 748 will succeed over time and seriously hurt potential 380 prospects
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ZK-NBT
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 2:54 pm

Well the 747 program has been the most successful program for for Boeing and has been the most profitable for them! And the legacy lives on!

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 21):
NZ is seriously looking at 8x 748 pax a/c to replace its 8 744's. It is not interested at all in the A380 and the 773ER simply isn't big enough for some of NZ's 747 routes.

Yup, maybe 9 aircraft? They aren't getting the A380 and if the 773ER is to small which it is for some routes then it will have to be the 748!

Quoting SthPacific787 (Reply 23):
I believe QF will also get on to the 748i bandwagon as a replacement on 744 routes where a 380 is too much Aircraft. If the economics are what Boeing is touting, then it's a given that the 748 will succeed over time and seriously hurt potential 380 prospects

I agree except QF don't actually have that many 747 routes for the large fleet they have, though utilization is certainly high! 9 of their 744's aren't that old and will be around for alot longer than the rest of the fleet and I feel that QF will exercise a few A380 options, then they will also have a large 787 fleet aswell, they may need a few more 747's in between the 787's and A380 though I guess. But yes I do expect QF to order the 748.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 4:07 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
The current backlog for -400s is 42 aircraft -- all freighters.

also echoing LTBEWR point

does this mean that the last passenger 744 has more than likely been already built?
 
ikramerica
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 4:15 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 25):
does this mean that the last passenger 744 has more than likely been already built?

Final four all delivered to China Airlines. One of the four had the "dreamliner/worldliner" livery.
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leelaw
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milest

Wed May 10, 2006 4:16 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 25):
does this mean that the last passenger 744 has more than likely been already built?

Boeing still shows 4 unfilled orders for pax 744s as of April 30th.

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/...pageid=m25066&RequestTimeout=20000
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ikramerica
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 4:22 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 27):
Boeing still shows 4 unfilled orders for pax 744s as of April 30th.

And they will never be built. I highly doubt Philippine will take them. They took the last of their first 3 11 years ago and a lot has changed since then.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 4:24 pm

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 24):
Yup, maybe 9 aircraft? They aren't getting the A380 and if the 773ER is to small which it is for some routes then it will have to be the 748!

Yeah well it could be as little as 6 a/c (to service both LHR flights with 1 spare/down for mx), 8 a/c (both LHR flights plus the existing NZ5/6 to LAX with 1 spare/down for mx), not sure where a 9th would fit in... I think NZ would put on 2x daily 787 services to any other port rather than a single 748 flight...
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columba
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 4:38 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 3):
The thicker wing also means greater fuel capacity.

There it is: Lufthansa is critising the 787 for being to small and the A350 for having not enough range capability. Just skip those and order only 747-8s with their A346, A380s that would mean 4 engines 4 longhaul all the way  Wink
Just kidding - but high range and fuel efficient engines could be big plus for the 747-8. I really think it will have a good future as a pax and as a cargo aircraft.

Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 10):
How many 747-200 pax aircraft are still in service? Any chance that their operators will be able to get some capital together and effectively skip a generation of aircraft and go straight up to the 748?

I believe AF, NW and JAL still use 747-200s but they also have -400s as well so they would not skip a generation of aircraft but have used all generations of it  Smile
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kc135topboom
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 5:23 pm

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 21):
NZ is seriously looking at 8x 748 pax a/c to replace its 8 744's.



Quoting SthPacific787 (Reply 23):
I believe QF will also get on to the 748i bandwagon as a replacement on 744 routes where a 380 is too much Aircraft.

You can add BA, LH, NW, UA, JL, SQ, AF, and AC to the list with the possibility of NH (but I doubt that), to the list.
 
wukka
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 5:45 pm

I may be falling into the a trap here, but isn't the financial margin on a freighter higher than that of a pax version of the same craft to the manufacturers?
We can agree to disagree.
 
columba
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 5:48 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 31):
You can add..... AC

I doubt that AC will order anything larger than the 777-300ER.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Wed May 10, 2006 7:30 pm

Quoting Wukka (Reply 32):
I may be falling into the a trap here, but isn't the financial margin on a freighter higher than that of a pax version of the same craft to the manufacturers?

Yes, that is normally correct.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
I doubt that AC will order anything larger than the 777-300ER.

Yeah, I guess that would be correct.
 
tjc2
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RE: End Near For 744 Line As Boeing Eyes -8 Milestones

Thu May 11, 2006 2:01 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 3):
Boeing calculates the -8F will use more than 17% less fuel per metric

Interesting statement. Not attacking the facts, just the interesting phrasing... 

[Edited 2006-05-10 19:01:57]
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