FCKC
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200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 6:58 pm

http://www.zonebourse.com/zbat.php?c...ezb=4637&page=pageactu&idnw=196445

In less than 20 years , prediction is more than 200 size A380 planes for China !!!!!!
The market is there for both A380 and 747-8 , and perhaps for A380-900.
Impressive !!!!!!!!!
 
Aeri28
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 7:09 pm

Your title is misleading. Maybe start it with "Prediction: 200 ..... in 20 years"
 
Thorben
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 7:23 pm

au moins? That means at least 200 of that size, or what??

Also says that China will have 4,000 planes by 2025.

All the nice oil goes there.  crazy 
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
777ER
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 7:26 pm

This prediction doesn't surprise me one bit considering Asia and China has the biggest population mass
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FCKC
Topic Author
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 7:57 pm

Aeri28

Right , i should have been clearer , however this thread can interest quite many people.

Thorben

Yes , "au moins" means at least.So 200 is the minimum number that China could require in the A380 size plane market.
 
naritaflyer
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 9:28 pm

This sounds good but wait until China gets into the large commercial aircraft production business. The excitement about China's growth is due to the potential for sales of Boeing or Airbus aircraft. But once they get in the production business they may need to buy fewer aircraft from outside sources.
 
art
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 10:09 pm

From the article:

"Le China Daily qui rapporte ses informations, précise que la Chine a besoin d'au moins 200 porteurs comme l'A 380. Airbus a vu sa part de marché croître de 7% en 1995 à 34% en 2005. D'ici 2013, l'avionneur européen mise sur le contrôle de 50% du marché."
My translation:

"This report from China Daily states that China needs at least 200 aircraft like the A380. Airbus has seen its market share grow from 7% in 1995 to 34% in 2005. The European plane manufacturer is aiming for 50% of the market by 2013."

I guess that "200 aircraft like the A380" means 200 VLA. If Airbus secures its intended 50% of the Chinese market, that suggests a number of 100 A380's and 100 748's. The split could turn out to be almost anything. Up to 150 748's or 150 A380's perhaps.

Good news for both manufacturers.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 10:12 pm

While China and India's population could certainly absorb hundreds of A380s, I wonder how efficient an A380 would be when used in a "domestic short-haul" mission profile like Japan did with the 747SR and 744D.
 
Poitin
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Mon May 08, 2006 11:32 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
While China and India's population could certainly absorb hundreds of A380s, I wonder how efficient an A380 would be when used in a "domestic short-haul" mission profile like Japan did with the 747SR and 744D.

It will not work. The A380 is a long long haul aircraft, not an intercity airplane. And notice that the Japanese are backing away from the 747 used in that role. The price of oil will drive that
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
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Stitch
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Tue May 09, 2006 2:13 am

That's what I thought. So then the idea is that China's and India's middle-class will expand quickly and that they will flock to visit Europe, Australia, and North America on vacation?
 
Chuffy
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Tue May 09, 2006 3:47 am

A worrying thought for both A and B is that the market there can only be 'short term'. The available labour market and the price they will work for will have to mean that the Chinese will build their own planes. Once the demand for A or B dries up, they will buy up one or both businesses and move them lock stock home.
Our demand for minimum wages, sick pay, holiday pay, national insurance can only mean that the western product will become too expensive when compared with what the Chinese will work for.

This applies to all manufacturing, but aeroplanes are my interest.

There is more but I won't bore you all any more.

Cheers
 
art
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Tue May 09, 2006 4:38 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
the idea is that China's and India's middle-class will expand quickly and that they will flock to visit Europe, Australia, and North America on vacation?

China had an estimated GDP per capita of around US$2000 in 2005. However, that figure is somewhat misleading since you would live far better on such an income in China than you would in Europe or the US. Couple that with a very uneven distribution and you already have quite a few "middle class" Chinese. Allow for continuing growth of close to 10% for the next few years and revaluation of the yuan and you have a large number of Chinese in the market for long haul travel.

Quoting Chuffy (Reply 10):
A worrying thought for both A and B is that the market there can only be 'short term'. The available labour market and the price they will work for will have to mean that the Chinese will build their own planes.

Wouldn't buying a stake in an existing manufacturer and slowly migrating work to China be a more attractive proposition? You never know, we might even see A320's being built in China!
 
Chuffy
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Tue May 09, 2006 5:07 am

Quoting Art (Reply 11):
Wouldn't buying a stake in an existing manufacturer and slowly migrating work to China be a more attractive proposition? You never know, we might even see A320's being built in China

...and then buying the Company.
 
cloudy
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Tue May 09, 2006 1:59 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 11):
China had an estimated GDP per capita of around US$2000 in 2005. However, that figure is somewhat misleading since you would live far better on such an income in China than you would in Europe or the US

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

This is the CIA world factbook, which shows China's GDP as $6300 per capita. This is measured by Purchasing Power Parity. As the name suggests, that accounts for the difference in purchasing power.
 
jeb94
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Tue May 09, 2006 3:21 pm

China is working very hard to develop its own aircraft manufacturing system. In the very short term this will be good for Boeing and Airbus but in my opinion you'll find that many of these aircraft wind up being built in China and some may even be of Chinese design. China is a nation full of very resourceful people afterall.
 
vincewy
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Tue May 09, 2006 5:52 pm

A380 won't be for high density domestic networks, instead a comprehensive high speed rail network is in the work, A380/747 size aircrafts will be for long haul and regional flights between major cities, perhaps even connecting with HSR and other ground transports.

A few domestic city pairs may use A380, such as PEK-CAN, CTU-PEK which HSR will have no time saving advantage, but any city pairs that are within 2 hours of flights may eventually rely on HSR primarily, they call it "Dedicated Passenger Lines"

IMO many more lines are needed, ie: certain city pairs can build another line going through different sets of major cities, such as Shanghai-Beijing, Shanghai-Guangzhou but those in the map are the most urgent (wonder why it took so long for them to get started)
 
Boeing777/747
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RE: 200 Size A380 Planes For China!

Tue May 09, 2006 8:02 pm

China is planning to open 50 new airports the coming 5 years. This country is skyrocketing: maybe their economy once explode.

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