leelaw
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Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 7:36 pm

Airbus will be watching the results of a Singapore Airlines (SIA) board meeting carefully this week, hoping the carrier will again delay ordering new twinjets and instead await more details of the radically revised A350 offering.

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+Singapore+Airlines+order+for.html
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zvezda
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 7:45 pm

There is a chance that SQ might hold off on ordering the B787, but I don't expect them to hold off on ordering the B777-200LR.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 8:31 pm

As the other one was apparently deleted...:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 1):
Why would SQ wait that long? Given the experience with the EIS delays on the A380, Airbus is asking a top customer to take the 'leap of faith' again. If Boeing can offer deliver slots for the 787-9 in 2010 (or earlier!) then why would it be in SQ's best interest to delay (again)? Do they have certitude that Airbus' latest edition of the A350 could "leapfrog" the 787? Why sacrifice at least two (probably more) of greatly enhanced cash flows from operating a more efficient aircraft?

At this point nobody is able to say if Boeing will be able to deliver the B787 in the promised time frame to the promised specifications. I don't buy the "everything will go nice and smooth" PR - it is an industrial project, and you can always have problems, as for example experienced by Airbus with the A380.

Why would SQ wait?

1. Depends what they actually need. In the recent past most has been pointing towards the B787-1000, which won't be in before 2012 last thing I read. That means that the delta between the A350 (in whatever variation) will be comparably marginal with about 2 years.

2. They have several times stated that they actually need something to replace the 777-200s on the short Intra-Asia runs. Airbus could for example offer A330-300s as an interim solution (which could stay...) for this mission profile, and could bring in the A350 at a later stage which not only replace these A333 but a full load of B777s as well.

3. Price. The 787 is well booked for the near future, which likely means that Boeing is demanding a premium at the moment, and can likely forget anything like a "launch discount". Now consider how it looks on the other side of the Atlantic...

-------------
In the end it will be a financially driven decision - as (nearly) always. The 777-200s - not perfect for the intended mission profile - are not bad and could stay 2 or 3 years longer if needed, without making such a big financial impact.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
leelaw
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 8:38 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
There is a chance that SQ might hold off on ordering the B787

SQ's decision tomorrow may make or break Airbus's alleged proposal for a "radically redesigned" A350. If SQ goes ahead with a decision to place a 787 order despite Airbus's eleventh-hour heroics, won't the new and improved A350 family concept be DOA?
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EI321
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 8:48 pm

[quoteLumberton=reply=2]Quote(Reply 1):
Why would SQ wait that long? Given the experience with the EIS delays on the A380, Airbus is asking a top customer to take the 'leap of faith' again. If Boeing can offer deliver slots for the 787-9 in 2010 (or earlier!) then why would it be in SQ's best interest to delay (again)? Do they have certitude that Airbus' latest edition of the A350 could "leapfrog" the 787? Why sacrifice at least two (probably more) of greatly enhanced cash flows from operating a more efficient aircraft? [/quote]

Some suggestions Lumberton

Why would they wait so long? It may not be that long at all. 787 production is apparently sold out for the first three years as is. Maybe SQ management know something we dont.

SQs 773s and most of the 772s are relativly new, they may not want to replace them so soon. This apparent A350-10 sounds like it would not only match the 787 line, but might put the 777 line to bed also.

Like is said above, if airbus can offer 333s as an interm then that may be attractive also as the 333 is much more efficient than the 772 on shorter routes.

I still think SQ is likely to order 772LRs in the meantime though.
 
zvezda
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 8:51 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 3):

SQ's decision tomorrow may make or break Airbus's alleged proposal for a "radically redesigned" A350. If SQ goes ahead with a decision to place a 787 order despite Airbus's eleventh-hour heroics, won't the new and improved A350 family concept be DOA?

I think that's placing too much weight on a single order. If Airbus were to lose both SQ and EK while not picking up any other blue-chip carriers, then they would need to rethink their strategy. SQ alone is not a reliable indicator of what other airlines will do.
 
dalecary
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 9:12 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 2):
1. Depends what they actually need. In the recent past most has been pointing towards the B787-1000, which won't be in before 2012 last thing I read. That means that the delta between the A350 (in whatever variation) will be comparably marginal with about 2 years.

My understanding is that the 789 is the 787 model most likely to be ordered in large numbers. The 788/-10 could also figure.
 
zvezda
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 9:41 pm

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 6):
My understanding is that the 789 is the 787 model most likely to be ordered in large numbers. The 788/-10 could also figure.

I've heard that too, but I'm not convinced. SQ need a smaller, low-CASM aircraft to increase frequencies to daily for many european and middle-eastern destinations, in order to raise yields. The B787-8 fits that requirement. The B787-9 and B787-10 also satisfy many of SQ's requirements. I think the earlier availability of the B787-8 will play a role. The first of SQ's B777-200ERs will be due for retirement about 2009.
 
EI321
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 9:45 pm

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 6):
My understanding is that the 789 is the 787 model most likely to be ordered in large numbers. The 788/-10 could also figure.

So far the breakdown is as follows:

787-3: 43
787-8: 296
787-9: 44
787-10: not yet launched
TBA: 10

TOTAL: 393 (350 firm, 43 pending)

[Edited 2006-05-08 14:47:55]
 
NAV20
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 9:50 pm

Does begin to look like a re-run of the Qantas thing - Airbus making a 'final offer' to try to delay things. My money's on 788s and 772LRs - with an 'each way' bet on SIA being launch customer for the 748.
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leelaw
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 9:51 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 8):
TOTAL: 393 (350 firm, 43 pending)

Is the Primaris "commitment" still pending?
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EI321
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 9:53 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 10):
Is the Primaris "commitment" still pending?

Yes I included that, for 20 788. They have 15 options also IIRK.
 
boeingbus
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 10:00 pm

With all these now new delays in launching yet another version of the A350...I bet all the airline directors and shareholders that approved the purchase of 787's are patting themselves on the back... and the those who opted for the A350 are kicking themselves...

I bet is that SQ will opt for the 787. I have my doubt on how a wider Al-Li fuselage can be more efficient that an all composite fuselage... but in Toulouse it's all "smoke and mirrors" to me...
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leelaw
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 10:04 pm

Has SQ ever hinted at whether or not it has made refundable deposits to hold early 787 delivery slots? I'm wondering if SQ has indeed made refundable deposits to hold 787 delivery slots, whether at this point deferring a decision between ordering the A350 & 787 would require relinquishing relatively early slots (2008-2011)?
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Stitch
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 10:11 pm

Okay, this is probably going to sound silly, but if SQ wants something smaller then the 772ER for intra-Asia in the near-term, and they want the 787, why not take some 763ERs or 764ERs? Sure, the A330 is the better plane, but if it's a short-term lease...

Boeing could certainly use some more sales to keep the line going, could offer pretty close to "at cost" pricing, and even with Boeing slowing production to a crawl, if SQ needs planes "right now" I imagine Boeing can work something out with LA or NH to shift their deliveries around.
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 10:24 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 4):
Why would they wait so long? It may not be that long at all. 787 production is apparently sold out for the first three years as is. Maybe SQ management know something we dont.

Well, the 787 is undoubtly sold out for the first years, but then again, Boeing will decide this year whether they will open a second 787 line, which would open up space for quite a few additional orders. Boeing's decision on this is still up for some time (late Q3 IIRC), but if they can gather the interest of airlines and perhaps LOIs or MOUs, they might announce the second line sooner than later, and as such attract the interest of even more airlines.
 
zvezda
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 10:25 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
Okay, this is probably going to sound silly, but if SQ wants something smaller then the 772ER for intra-Asia in the near-term, and they want the 787, why not take some 763ERs or 764ERs?

SQ don't want something smaller than the B777-200ER at any cost. They want something smaller than the B777-200ER with low CASM. The B787-8 is attractive to SQ not only because it is smaller than the B777-200ER but because it will have a lower CASM (at least when configured 9Y, which SQ would surely do).
 
Lumberton
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 10:38 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 2):
As the other one was apparently deleted...:

I can't understand why it was deleted. There was nothing inflamatory. Perhaps the Mod made a mistake? I never received an e-mail notification either.... Anyway, than you for resurrecting my post!

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 2):
At this point nobody is able to say if Boeing will be able to deliver the B787 in the promised time frame to the promised specifications. I don't buy the "everything will go nice and smooth" PR - it is an industrial project, and you can always have problems, as for example experienced by Airbus with the A380.

You bet. But Boeing has a significant head start. I can't see SQ waiting any longer. They can do the "we'll revisit the A350 later" thing, but in the meantime, delivery slots are going to their fiercest competitors.

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 2):
2. They have several times stated that they actually need something to replace the 777-200s on the short Intra-Asia runs. Airbus could for example offer A330-300s as an interim solution (which could stay...) for this mission profile, and could bring in the A350 at a later stage which not only replace these A333 but a full load of B777s as well.

SQ didn't take the A330 option in the past. Why now? That means putting up with higher fuel burn penalties (and costs) vis a vis the 787. I suspect Boeing as a few slots they may be able to offer in 2010, if not 2009.

[Edited 2006-05-08 15:38:35]
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A319XFW
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 10:58 pm

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 15):
Well, the 787 is undoubtly sold out for the first years, but then again, Boeing will decide this year whether they will open a second 787 line, which would open up space for quite a few additional orders.

I think the one thing Boeing is considering about opening another line is, if it will be sustainable - it might bring short term gains, but what will happen to it in 10 years time when the initial rush is over and they have got over-capacity. See what happened post 9-11 when they had too much capacity. But that admittedly was a extreme case.

It says that Leahy and Humbert were there because of the A350 - I'm guessing they were also there to update them on the progress of the A380, too.
 
wedgetail737
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 11:02 pm

For those in the United States, it's already May 9th in Singapore. Maybe, we'll hear something tonight on what SIA may do.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 11:04 pm

The SQ board meets tomorrow, so will we know something tomorrow or later in the week or next week?
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zvezda
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 11:08 pm

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 20):
The SQ board meets tomorrow, so will we know something tomorrow or later in the week or next week?

I would not be surprised if SQ were to make an announcement on the 9th.
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 11:12 pm

Quoting A319XFW (Reply 18):
I think the one thing Boeing is considering about opening another line is, if it will be sustainable - it might bring short term gains, but what will happen to it in 10 years time when the initial rush is over and they have got over-capacity.

That could theorethically happen, but then again, looking at the current orders for the 787 (and A350 for that matter), it appears the majority of those planes on order are for growth, and not for a 1-to-1 replacement of current types. It is highly speculative, but look at all the demand AA, UA, CO, DL, NW and US could have in around 5 years for planes that will just be replacements? 100+ 787s for AA and DL each, roughly 100 A350s or 787s for UA, 40 787s for CO, and so on. Admittedly, these are extreme large numbers, but they prove that there will still be enough demand, even if Boeing were to open a second line. Not to disregard of course the smaller widebody operators like AM, LAN or CSA, which will likely buy either one of the competing products in the future as well, and all those numbers combined can indeed add up pretty good.
 
NAV20
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 11:34 pm

About the second line, I think 'payback' comes into it. Boeing have sold 350 787s already - enough, probably, to recoup the entire development cost. A second line, with no current competition, would be an absolute goldmine. Boeing could hope literally to sell ANOTHER 350 before Airbus can organise a competitor.

Even after that, they would be in a position to compete for a time by offering low prices on the 787 while still turning a profit. My guess is that they are already doing that with the 737, which is currently more than holding its own against the A320, even though the A320 is arguably the better aeroplane.

Beyond that, the profits on the 787 and 777 lines will give Boeing the R & D funds to develop both Y3 and Y1 while still paying good dividends to shareholders; and even fund an upgraded or 'compositised' 777.

I think Airbus (if it scraps the A350 and concentrates on producing a truly competitive design, even if it takes six or seven years) is finally doing the right thing. But it's going to be a long, hard road back to parity.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Joni
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 11:43 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):


Beyond that, the profits on the 787 and 777 lines will give Boeing the R & D funds to develop both Y3 and Y1 while still paying good dividends to shareholders; and even fund an upgraded or 'compositised' 777.

Provided they use the same program structure as with the 787, meaning lots of risk-sharing partners. You need to keep in mind that Boeing has outsourced a large chunk of the 787's value, and with it a large chunk of the revenues.
 
keesje
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 11:47 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
But it's going to be a long, hard road back to parity

I don't think parity would be the goal.

From comments earlier on from SQ it became clear SQ doesn't want a solution for 2012 or later (787 available slots, versions).

I think this is going to be very important and I'm curious what short term plan Boeing has to offer. I think cheap 777's isn't the best solution these days. They are probably to large / burn too much for the requirement.
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NAV20
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Mon May 08, 2006 11:49 pm

Easily organised, Joni. The sub-contractors turn a decent profit and the proprietor gets the cream on top. Easy as pie when there's no competition.

Trouble is, thanks to Airbus handing a virtual monopoly to Boeing in the midsize sector through their obsession with the A380, us mere passengers will wind up paying more.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
manni
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 12:35 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
Boeing have sold 350 787s already - enough, probably, to recoup the entire development cost.

Let's have some fun with these figures...  yes 

At a development cost of US$ 8000000000, if everything goes as planned, each sold 787 would need to contribute US$ 22.8 million to recoup them, if 350 units would be enough to recoup the entire development cost, or 15.6% of the average listprice. Boeing has sold more than a hundred 787's to JL, NH and QF reportedly at around US$ 65 million, good luck with squeezing an additional US$ 22 million of that price to cover development costs. If this would be possible the actual cost to build a 787 would be US$ 43 million or 30%.

If we apply the same percentage of 30% to the A380, the A380 would cost around US$ 90 million to build. Even with a (fictive and highly unlikely) discount as high as 40% on average, Airbus would need to sell only 134 units to recover their US$ 12 billion... With 159 sold they've made already US$ 2.2 billion. With such margins you start to wonder why there are only 2 manufacturers dominating...  Yeah sure
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zvezda
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 12:50 am

Manni is right. There is no way Boeing would have spread the B787's development costs over only 350 units. I might believe 500, but not fewer.

However, I'm skeptical that Boeing have been selling B787s for $65M. Maybe to NH and NZ, but not to QF.
 
Poitin
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 1:02 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 28):
Manni is right. There is no way Boeing would have spread the B787's development costs over only 350 units. I might believe 500, but not fewer.

However, I'm skeptical that Boeing have been selling B787s for $65M. Maybe to NH and NZ, but not to QF.

If they are selling 787s to anyone at $65M and not losing money, Airbus has a problem. The list price for the 783 is $132-136M, and so that is 50% off list.

I wonder what the A350 will sell for? Anyone have any insight? Has the recent SU deal been a price reduction for the A350 in the eyes of everyone else in the market for a new fleet.

Should be interesting to hear what Gustav is telling Mr. Chew in Singapore.
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NAV20
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 1:10 am

Manni, Zvezda, Qantas made it clear that their initial tender related only to the airframes, and that they would be tendering the engines separately. So any rumoured low prices do NOT relate to the normal list prices, which include engines.

In addition, Manni, I regret (for your sake) that Boeing are smarter than that (for the moment, anyway). Aspects of the 787 design (especially the wing design) were used in the 772LR and are also being used for the 748; and things like composite and bleedless technologies can and will clearly be applied to a whole range of future models. Therefore quite a large proportion of 787 development costs can properly be allocated to other products, present and future.

I'm sure that Airbus was able to do the same with, for example, the A330/340 line. But there appears to be no way they can allocate the costs of A380 development to anything else but the A380. And, assuming that the A350 design will not now proceed, anything they've spent on that will just have to be written off.
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Stitch
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 1:32 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 16):
SQ don't want something smaller than the B777-200ER at any cost. They want something smaller than the B777-200ER with low CASM. The B787-8 is attractive to SQ not only because it is smaller than the B777-200ER but because it will have a lower CASM (at least when configured 9Y, which SQ would surely do).

Does the A333 have better CASM then the 772ER? And does it have better CASM then the 772A?
 
zvezda
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 1:57 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 30):
Manni, Zvezda, Qantas made it clear that their initial tender related only to the airframes, and that they would be tendering the engines separately. So any rumoured low prices do NOT relate to the normal list prices, which include engines.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
Does the A333 have better CASM then the 772ER? And does it have better CASM then the 772A?

The B777-200 and B777-200ER have slightly lower CASM than the A330. Typically, for any given generation of technology and similar range class, the larger airframe has the lower CASM. For a airliner to remain competitive, it's ok for there to be larger aircraft with a lower CASM, but an airliner is in trouble as soon as a substantially smaller airliner having substantially lower CASM becomes available.
 
TIA
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 2:34 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 32):

The B777-200 and B777-200ER have slightly lower CASM than the A330.

Which A330 though? The A333 is about the same size as the 772.
 
wjcandee
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 2:54 am

It could be that the most profitable thing that Primaris could do for its investors (as opposed to actually trying to operate its...er..."challenging" business plan) is flip the 20 787 delivery positions to SQ or another Boeing customer that missed out on the initial slots that Boeing was "holding" for it, OR, flip the positions for a fee with a promise from Boeing to reinstate them if it opens a second line. If Primaris actually launches an all-biz-class domestic US service along the lines of what its web site shows (using 737-800s to start), I personally believe that they will be facing some significant financial challenges by the time the 787s would be nearing delivery. Moreover, MaxJet has already beaten Primaris to the punch as regards its first international destination, London, and given the apparent similarity of those services (except that MaxJet is running a widebody 767-200 and Primaris apparently will be using the narrowbody 737-800 or its existing 757, as best as I can understand its web site), the potential for a 2x2 standard-seating-all-biz-class London product will likely have been well-explored by the time Primaris would be able to institute London.

What I'm really saying is that if Boeing REALLY wants to stick it to the A350, it has the potential to get creative and put some early 787 delivery positions in SQ's hands today without having to commit to a second 787 line, by working something out with Primaris.

As to pricing, Boeing has a lot of flexibility to cut whatever deal it wants with whomever it wants. If SQ is willing to bite on some 777s at profitable numbers, some new 747s at profitable numbers, and deliver a body blow to the A350, all in return for some 787 positions offered at a fair price but made less-profitable by what Boeing would have to pay Primaris to buy out those positions, it's still a deal that would be worth contemplating.

Edit: One other thought: Given that Primaris's pre-launch marketing is so dependent for credibility upon the fact that it has ordered the 787, and will introduce it, according to their web site, "as early as 2009", they could slide the bulk of their delivery dates, keep a couple of the 20 early deliveries for credibility, and still be able to reap the benefits of a "flip" without destroying their whole marketing scheme. It is plain, however, that regardless of how much they tout the 787, the 737 is going to be their primary vehicle for the first few years of their domestic and European operations, and it will be on the basis of how that plan flies that they will know whether they will actually ever be receiving the 787.

[Edited 2006-05-08 19:59:28]
 
Ken777
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 3:12 am

This appears to be the second trip to the well for Airbus. Didn't they go to SQ with grand benefits of holding off on the SQ 7E7 purchase because of the upcoming 350? That was a good blocking effort on their part - kept SQ from ordering the 7E7 and getting some very good delivery slots.

Now Airbus goes back with the grand benefits of the 370? Without delivering on the promised 350? Could SQ be thinking about the lost slots? And maybe even the lost launch discounts? Would they really be that impressed with this round of blocking efforts on the part of Airbus? Somehow I don't think so.

I also have a feeling that Boeing has had a counter block in place for a while. First their is Primaris, who will probably make more money selling their slots than they will in the air. SQ would be a nice place to sell some of the best slots - probably the one airline who would pay a very nice fee for each slot.

Then there is the second production line. Boeing won't guarantee that it will open, but will be very open as to how it looks AND will be willing to give SQ their choice of slots. They might even provide SQ with choice production slots on the Y3 program without having to make a refundable deposit.  Smile.

I think that this time SQ will pass on the grand dreams of the Sales Team at Airbus and will go with the reality of the 787 program.
 
Poitin
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 3:25 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 35):
Now Airbus goes back with the grand benefits of the 370? Without delivering on the promised 350?

Not to mention the delivery of an A380 or two as well.

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 34):
What I'm really saying is that if Boeing REALLY wants to stick it to the A350, it has the potential to get creative and put some early 787 delivery positions in SQ's hands today without having to commit to a second 787 line, by working something out with Primaris.

One possibility.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 35):
Then there is the second production line. Boeing won't guarantee that it will open, but will be very open as to how it looks AND will be willing to give SQ their choice of slots. They might even provide SQ with choice production slots on the Y3 program without having to make a refundable deposit. Smile.

This is a definite possibility. Boeing wants this order bad, and if they have to find early slots, they will.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
keesje
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 3:40 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 30):
And, assuming that the A350 design will not now proceed, anything they've spent on that will just have to be written off.

If consistent that also means that anything spend on the Sonic Cruiser is also written off? And orders also. I think you are too pessimistic.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 32):
Does the A333 have better CASM then the 772ER? And does it have better CASM then the 772A?

The B777-200 and B777-200ER have slightly lower CASM than the A330.

Incorrect. The A330 has a lower CASM then the B777 & can easily cover Asia. So unless SQ wants 777 commmonality or US/Europe range the A330 would be the better aircraft.
http://www.mba.aero/presentations/01...body_and_regional_jet_aircraft.pdf slide 19 of 36
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
leelaw
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 3:52 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 30):
And, assuming that the A350 design will not now proceed, anything they've spent on that will just have to be written off.

If consistent that also means that anything spend on the Sonic Cruiser is also written off? And orders also. I think you are too pessimistic.

R & D expenses are generally expensed as incurred, so there won't be write-offs per se.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
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scbriml
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 3:57 am

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 34):



Quoting Ken777 (Reply 35):

That's all well and good assuming that Boeing has actually held Primaris's "commitments" open. In all likelyhood, given the fact that Primaris hasn't even signed a contract for the 737s it was going to order, the 787 slots have long gone.

Here's Boeing press release from October 2004 on the Primaris "order":
http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2004/q4/nr_041021g.html

Quote:
Contract negotiations are expected to conclude later this year.

18 months later and still no contract signed. I'd be very surprised if Primaris still has any 787 rights whatsoever.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
astuteman
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 4:12 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 30):
In addition, Manni, I regret (for your sake) that Boeing are smarter than that (for the moment, anyway). Aspects of the 787 design (especially the wing design) were used in the 772LR and are also being used for the 748; and things like composite and bleedless technologies can and will clearly be applied to a whole range of future models. Therefore quite a large proportion of 787 development costs can properly be allocated to other products, present and future.

In reality, the key advantage of the technology transfer situation is more related to risk reduction and ease of implementation.
The "technology" might be proven, but it's the "application" that actually costs the majority of the money on a new product (the "development" as opposed to the "research")  Smile.

Not saying it's not a benefit (far from it), just cautioning against the "large proportion" type of comments, which might not be strictly representative of reality.
Regards
 
brendows
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 4:50 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 39):
That's all well and good assuming that Boeing has actually held Primaris's "commitments" open. In all likelyhood, <...> the 787 slots have long gone.

If I've understood things correctly, those slots has been lost..
 
zvezda
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 5:36 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
The A330 has a lower CASM then the B777 & can easily cover Asia.

The chart you cited shows them with the same CASM.
 
11Bravo
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 6:07 am

Anybody know what time this Board meeting is?

Currently 0500 hours Tuesday morning in Singapore.
WhaleJets Rule!
 
keesje
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 6:22 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
The A330 has a lower CASM then the B777 & can easily cover Asia.

The chart you cited shows them with the same CASM.

No, it isn´t.

A more recent sources gives an even bigger casm difference between A330 and B777. I think it is widely accepted in the industry the A330 is CASM king.
http://www.securitization.net/pdf/Publications/AircraftABS_7Sept05.pdf page 28 of 36

Is there any source that indicates the B777 has better CASM?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
F4N
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 8:11 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
Incorrect. The A330 has a lower CASM then the B777 & can easily cover Asia. So unless SQ wants 777 commmonality or US/Europe range the A330 would be the better aircraft.

Keesje:

Despite your conjecture, SQ has turned down the 330 at least 2 times I can think of, possibly 3.  wideeyed  You would think they know what they're doing.....

regards,

F4N
 
intothinair
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 10:34 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 43):
Currently 0500 hours Tuesday morning in Singapore.

That means it's already been, its 9 30am now?
Why haven't we heard anything?
 
boeing767-300
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 11:21 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 35):
I think that this time SQ will pass on the grand dreams of the Sales Team at Airbus and will go with the reality of the 787 program.

Ken777 I think you have summed up the whole argument in one sentence  checkmark  The A370 is a blocking move to those who have not already gone to 787!!!
 
kaitak744
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 12:23 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 44):
A more recent sources gives an even bigger casm difference between A330 and B777. I think it is widely accepted in the industry the A330 is CASM king.

Well, the 777-200 seats more people than the A330-300, and it carries a greater amount of cargo. So, the finaly cost difference is very small.
 
keesje
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RE: Last-Ditch Bid To Save SQ Order For A350

Tue May 09, 2006 4:48 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 48):
Well, the 777-200 seats more people than the A330-300, and it carries a greater amount of cargo. So, the finaly cost difference is very small.

Indeed, but it also carries a fixed addition 20.000kg / 43.000lb of non revenu metal..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway

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