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OzarkD9S
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WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Tue May 09, 2006 10:19 pm

http://airportbusiness.com/article/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=6403

Not just via codeshare with TZ but on it's own metal as well.

Interesting statements regarding DAL and also that WN would not fly to international destination unless it fit the multiple daily flight service pattern.
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SLCUT2777
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Tue May 09, 2006 11:29 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Thread starter):
Interesting statements regarding DAL and also that WN would not fly to international destination unless it fit the multiple daily flight service pattern.

They could easily fly to Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean if they wanted to. There is money to be made flying those routes from the states.
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ChiGB1973
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Tue May 09, 2006 11:31 pm

It will be TZ metal. WN won't go over the border except to get from one domestic city to another.

Just ain't gonna happen.

M
 
aa1818
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Tue May 09, 2006 11:33 pm

I think the Caribbean would provide some great opportunities for WN.
Uncongested airports, cheap fees, decent sized passenger base looking for lower fares, excellent network to connect on in the US. POS, BGI, MBJ, KIN, SDQ, CUR, SXM, GND and GEO. Would be spectacular to see them in tropical climes!

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[Edited 2006-05-09 16:37:44]
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NKMCO
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Tue May 09, 2006 11:36 pm

Quoting ChiGB1973 (Reply 2):
It will be TZ metal. WN won't go over the border except to get from one domestic city to another.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I definitely see them going international within next few years. They have smart leadership and the timing is almost right.
I've actually went through a group interview with WN very recently and they even mentioned possible international service during the interview.
 
desertjets
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Tue May 09, 2006 11:51 pm

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the possibility of WN flying beyond the lower 48. As much as people on this board talk about the Southwest model, it isn't so rigid as some make it out to be. Given their willingness to enter into so-called "non-traditional" Southwest markets in the past few years flying transboarder to Canada, Mexico, or the Caribbean is not too far fetched.

One of the things that I have wondered is why there is such a weak LCC presence in the US-Canada transboarder market, beyond the sun 'n fun destinations. WestJet tried and failed flying YYZ-LGA, as an example. IMO Southwest could be successful operating a reasonably sized operation (say 20-25 flights max) in and out of YYZ, YUL, YYC, and YVR.

Mexico might be a possibility, but current restrictions in the billateral limit the number of carriers between any given city pair. Many of the US LCCs have been picking up rights to the beach destinations, but Southwest could make a go at places like MEX, MTY, GDL if the rights were available.

The Caribbean might be a possibility, but like the article stated they would need to be able to justify multiple daily frequencies to start service... figure 7-10 flights. But there is a lot of LCC saturation into the Caribbean right now from potential Southwest gateways. SJU would probably be doable, maybe KIN or MBJ or something in DR.
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PanAm747
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 12:04 am

I would assume there are different rules for international travel, especially if someone is being deported. Can WN continue to use the first-come-first-served seating assignment system on international flights?
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ChiGB1973
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 12:04 am

Quoting NKMCO (Reply 4):
I've actually went through a group interview with WN very recently and they even mentioned possible international service during the interview.

They said, "we are going to fly our (WN) planes to international destinations?"

While I do not doubt they mentioned international expansion, I do doubt they were telling people in a group interview that they are going to fly WN metal to international destinations.

This whole subject was addressed in WN employee newsletter recently. It specifically talked about the addition of life vest to the plane and the purpose of it was to save fuel on Florida and a few other destinations that benefit from going further out over the water than is possible without them. Canada and Mexico from certain places do not need life vests nor rafts, but for destinations that are the money makers right now do require a lot more than WN is going to invest, ie, ETOPS, rafts, training, passports. All this, TZ has and would be a minimal investment for WN compared to equipping their own planes. Not to mention ground time and customs delays

WN cannot get enough planes and is trying to locate more 737s to fill it's domestic expansion. There is way too much WN wants domestically before flying it's own planes internationally.

Some of this is my personal opinion, some of it is from WN sources. There will always be speculation that WN will fly internationally, but I do not think with their own equipment. I have been wrong before; thought I was wrong.   

M

[Edited 2006-05-09 17:22:18]
 
txagkuwait
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 12:05 am

Desert Jets hit a couple I think are in the cards.

Look real hard at Monterrey, Mexico City, Calgary, and Toronto.

Look at U.S. destinations where those places have "communities of interest."

Think about the energy industry activity that may happen in Calgary and think about WN's presence in other places where the energy industry is important (HOU, MSY, MAF). Think about flights going HOU-DEN-Calgary. PHX-SLC-Calgary. Calgary to MDW to the Eastern WN cities.

Think about where Toronto is geographically. You could easily get a dozen flights out of Toronto to Chicago, Detroit, Pittsurgh, and/or Washington DC (BWI or IAD).

Mexico City would do well to California, Phoenix, El Paso, San Antonio, and Houston.

Monterrey might as well be part of Texas. Think of it as part of WN's Texas Intrastate network only you have to go thru customs.
 
MKEdude
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 12:29 am

I never understood why the "Southwest Model" was written in stone. Who says that it cannot change? If WN percives there is a profit to be made in flying their own metel across the border than I think they'll do it. Connecting YYZ to MDW and BWI seems logical, and there is a killing to be made running flights out of Texas and SoCal to the Mexican beach markets.

Who cares if the turn-around time goes up to an hour or more, if the plane is full they'll still pull down a profit.
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redflyer
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 12:35 am

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 5):
As much as people on this board talk about the Southwest model, it isn't so rigid as some make it out to be. Given their willingness to enter into so-called "non-traditional" Southwest markets in the past few years flying transboarder to Canada, Mexico, or the Caribbean is not too far fetched.

I don't think WN's model is so rigid that it would prevent them from going international to places like Canada or Mexico. But I do think that won't happen until they run out of expansion markets in the lower 48 first. Think of the metro areas in the lower 48 that are still without WN service. It would be in their interests, not to mention more cost-effective and requiring less effort, to expand to those domestic locations first in the hunt for ever increasing revenues.
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ltbewr
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 12:43 am

They could serve certain city points in Mexico, Canada and the Carribbean probably better than some legacies do now. Frontier and Jet Blue already serve some international services do why not WN?
WN could also add non-stop service to USVI and Puerto Rico, from major points in the mainland USA so still in the USA and thus no international hassles. They would probably give AA, DL and others some competition and make it cheaper for business and casual travelers to those places.
 
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 12:57 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 10):
I don't think WN's model is so rigid that it would prevent them from going international to places like Canada or Mexico. But I do think that won't happen until they run out of expansion markets in the lower 48 first. Think of the metro areas in the lower 48 that are still without WN service. It would be in their interests, not to mention more cost-effective and requiring less effort, to expand to those domestic locations first in the hunt for ever increasing revenues.

Maybe, but the main city pairs have been pretty well covered from what I see (and there might be exceptions, but I'm talking in general here) so you will have to go to the 'lesser' city-pairs. As opposed to ging to places like YYZ, wich are pretty big city pairs and can sustain bigger frequencies in the future, while the smaller domestic pairs will have a pax cap that is much lower. So while the initial costs may be higher, the revenue is bound to be much bigger, wich can be used to add other domestic city pairs

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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 1:05 am

Quoting DesertJets (Reply 5):
One of the things that I have wondered is why there is such a weak LCC presence in the US-Canada transboarder market, beyond the sun 'n fun destinations. WestJet tried and failed flying YYZ-LGA, as an example. IMO Southwest could be successful operating a reasonably sized operation (say 20-25 flights max) in and out of YYZ, YUL, YYC, and YVR.

One issue of trans-49th routes between the states and provinces has been the cost structure of Canadian airports. YYZ is a VERY EXPENSIVE airport, far and away exceeding what MIA, SEA, DEN and SFO all are here in the states. WN typically avoids overpriced or otherwise congested airports, although going into PHL and DEN in the last year or two has shown that they are willing to step out of their business model box.
By 2008 or so I do see WN making a move north of the 49th for trans-border service as well as flying to Mexico and the Caribbean as part of their expanding revenue possibilities. I even see them adding newer 737s with ET-OPS certification to fly some of these routes and giving their crews additional training and possibly another tier of senior crew members who will have passports.
In Canada I see them going into YVR and YYC as well as YUL and perhaps Hamilton in place of YYZ.

Quoting AA1818, reply=3:
I think the Caribbean would provide some great opportunities for WN. Uncongested airports, cheap fees, decent sized passenger base looking for lower fares, excellent network to connect on in the US. POS, BGI, MBJ, KIN, SDQ, CUR, SXM, GND and GEO. Would be spectacular to see them in tropical climes!

Throw in POP for the DR since it is the least expensive of the all-inclusives in the entire Caribbean basin and the closest in proximity to both the US and Canada.
A successful operation like Southwest needs to re-evaluate where they are going form time to time, and I would say right now expanding beyond the lower 48 US states is definitely on the agenda for those in the upper level of management at WN. I think it would be a prescription for eventual downsizing not to do so for them.

[Edited 2006-05-09 18:08:58]
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socalfive
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 1:23 am

Quoting ChiGB1973 (Reply 7):
Some of this is my personal opinion, some of it is from WN sources. There will always be speculation that WN will fly internationally, but I do not think with their own equipment. I have been wrong before; thought I was wrong

Well, we all have to consider that all airlines, WN especially explores every possibility long-term. Their growth is hardly sporadic, every aspect of their operation is planned years in advance in most cases. They have enough discipline to look far enough ahead and develop several contingency plans dependent upon other airline expansions, bankruptcys, route abandonments, shutdowns, mergers, it's all about strategy and WN always manages to be prepared and for that you gotta luv 'em.
 
PVD757
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 1:49 am

well, its clear from the article that WN will codeshare with TZ to these places first. They will simply examine the flow traffic from the WN system to these points and possibly pick a market that could support 5-10 WN flights on it's own. I think SJU, DR, CUN, MEX, GDL, YUL, YYZ, YYc, and YVR all have a chance mid-term to see WN if indeed they do thier own flying internationally. I can't wait to see the first international code-share cities for TZ/WN!
 
steeler83
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 2:10 am

Quoting PVD757 (Reply 15):
well, its clear from the article that WN will codeshare with TZ to these places first. They will simply examine the flow traffic from the WN system to these points and possibly pick a market that could support 5-10 WN flights on it's own. I think SJU, DR, CUN, MEX, GDL, YUL, YYZ, YYc, and YVR all have a chance mid-term to see WN if indeed they do thier own flying internationally. I can't wait to see the first international code-share cities for TZ/WN!

I can't wait to see it either... But I would remove SJU from your list; it's not an international destination  Wink

For Canadian gateways, I could see PHL, MDW, mayyybe PIT to a few select markets. I am not sure if there is any O&D demand left for Montreal and Calgary anymore. My guess is that there is not after US discontinued those routes some 5 years ago...

For Caribbean/Mexican gateways, I would list BWI and PHL (PHL has AM coming later this year, but I believe U5 runs a lot of the Mexican/Carribena routes from PHL as well, plus, there's the hub carrier, US...) PHX sees a lot of Mexican routes already. Dallas could be a gateway, but that would open a whole ball of wax regarding Wright and AA... just my thoughts  Smile
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barney captain
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 2:23 am

Quoting ChiGB1973 (Reply 7):
but for destinations that are the money makers right now do require a lot more than WN is going to invest, ie, ETOPS, rafts, training, passports

You mean like this:

http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/20.../feature2.html

Southwest Airlines, a company that has focused on offering travelers low fares to U.S. destinations in its nearly 35 years of operation, is studying taking its low-fare model to Mexico and Canada.
In a response to a question at a recent session with students at UNLV last week, Gary Kelly, chief executive of the Dallas-based airline, said the airline—the busiest at McCarran International Airport—has begun the preliminary work of developing computer software to handle some of the transactions that would occur with flights to international destinations.
Kelly cautioned that the preliminary work doesn't mean Southwest has committed to flights and that the process of developing the software could take two to three years.
Kelly also said Southwest is in the initial stages of seeking certification to fly its twin-engine aircraft over water. That, he said, could open the door to flights to Hawaii or to the Caribbean.
Southwest has backed away from international flights in the past, citing numerous lucrative domestic markets that are much easier to serve. But the low-cost airline market has gotten more competitive in recent years with carriers such as JetBlue and AirTran gaining market share and US Airways revising its business model to attract more customers.
Kelly said that preparing for international flights gives the airline more options when aircraft is delivered from Boeing, which manufactures the twin-engine 737 that Southwest uses exclusively.
To serve destinations in Mexico and Canada, Southwest would have to seek U.S. Department of Transportation approval as well as permission from regulators in those respective countries. But in the early stages, Kelly said the company has to do its own internal preparations in order to sell tickets in international markets.
"We're talking about things like other countries' taxes and fees, currency conversion issues and working in other languages," Kelly said.
As for Hawaii and Caribbean service, Southwest must get special certification and employees receive special training for over-water flights. Southwest's Boeing 737-700 jets have the range to fly from the West Coast to Hawaii, but planes that make the run would have to have special safety equipment, including life rafts and employees who have received special training.
Southwest recently announced plans to offer Hawaii as a destination through its code-sharing agreement with ATA, which offers nonstop flights between Las Vegas and Honolulu.
Kelly was a guest of UNLV's Business Forum speaker series, sponsored by Wells Fargo Bank. Kelly addressed students in a morning gathering and local business representatives in a lunch at the Renaissance Hotel.
Other highlights in Kelly's appearances:
• Southwest will continue to grow at McCarran International Airport with at least 10 new round-trip flights planned at the airport this year. The airline flies about 215 flights a day, mostly from the airport's C gates. A construction project to build a bridge linking the B and C gates will enable Southwest to offer more flights from vacant B gates. The new connector also will enable US Airways to offer additional night flights from the C gates in the late hours.
• Kelly affirmed that the company has no plans to move its corporate headquarters from Dallas, despite efforts by several cities, including Phoenix and Albuquerque, to offer the airline a new home. Speculation was raised when Kelly commented that restrictions of the Wright Amendment made it difficult to conduct corporate business from Dallas. The Wright Amendment restricts long-haul flights by Southwest from its headquarters at Dallas' Love Field.
• Kelly remains optimistic that the Wright Amendment will someday be repealed. He said he is grateful for support from Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., who introduced legislation in the Senate to repeal the Wright Amendment, and from Reps. Jim Gibbons and Shelley Berkley for their support.
• He explained that the airline's fuel-hedging program has been responsible for keeping Southwest profitable in the last year. The company is 73 percent hedged this year at $36 a barrel, giving it a cushion in 2006 when fuel is running at more than $60 a barrel. Last year, the company saved $900 million with an 85 percent hedge at $26 a barrel.
• Kelly said it's possible Southwest would add a new destination in 2006. The airline recently added Fort Myers, Fla., and Denver to its route map and Kelly said the Las Vegas-Denver route has been a success so far. Kelly did not hint where Southwest would go next, but analysts have speculated that Charlotte, N.C., and Minneapolis are on the airline's short list of potential destinations.
Richard N. Velotta covers tourism for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4061 or by e-mail at .
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nateDAL
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 2:42 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 3):
Uncongested airports, cheap fees, decent sized passenger base looking for lower fares, excellent network to connect on in the US. POS, BGI, MBJ, KIN, SDQ, CUR, SXM, GND and GEO. Would be spectacular to see them in tropical climes!

What many people don't understand about WN is that their core business is not the leisure market. They want business travellers. They like to serve markets where there are a lot of last minute purchasers who will pay full fare. Since WN has reasonable full fare tickets, the business traveler will choose WN. Why do you think they have 30x flights a day from HOU to DAL? I don't have the figures, but I bet a huge proportion of those pax paid full fare. They are almost all business travellers.

Leisure is a nice supplement, but that is not what they are seeking.

So, if you asked me to pick where WN start service, I would guess HOU/SAT/LAX/PHX-MEX/GDL/MTY, MDW/BWI-MEX/YYZ/YUL, maybe HOU/MDW-YYC

[Edited 2006-05-09 19:49:03]
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SRT75
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 3:08 am

Does Wright preclude flights from Love Field to Mexico (or any other foreign destination for that matter)?

Is there any wiggle room in Wright to argue that it only applies to domestic flights, but places NO restriction on international flights?
 
ETStar
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RE: WN Contemplates Int'l Service

Wed May 10, 2006 3:18 am

WN to Vancouver, or Calgary, come oooooooooooon down! Though I doubt we will see any of this in the next decade.

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