WINGS
Topic Author
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Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 5:57 pm

I decide to start this thread in order to discuss possible A380 order from new and existing customers in 2006.

I have the following list as possible candidates.

Lufthansa
Singapore Airlines
Ethiad
Qatar (So far they only have 2 on order)
Iberia
South African Airlines (via ILFC)
China Airlines
China Eastern
Asiana
Emirates (conversion of their A346 order?)



What are your thoughts in regards to the probability of an order from the airlines in the list above?

Who else can we add to that list?

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
Beaucaire
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:02 pm

Some private customers in the Gulf to do reeeeeeeal big shopping trips....  cool 
Please respect animals - don't eat them...
 
zvezda
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:19 pm

Most airliners gather few if any orders during the 12 months prior EIS. For an airliner playing to a niche market that may already be saturated, any order this year would be a surprise, with the exception of a possible VIP order.
 
Sangas
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:21 pm

The current list of option holders may be a logical place to begin looking for potential 2006 order candidates:

AF 04
FX 10
KE 03
LH 10
QF 10
QR 02
SQ 15
5X 10
VS 06

Total = 70
A camel only sees the other camels' humps
 
Scorpio
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:23 pm

I'd add Air China to the list as well.
 
krisyyz
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:27 pm

I would doubt any major orders until Airbus puts out more operational performance data on the white whale and the successful and on-time integration of the GP7200 engines is complete.
 
zvezda
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:31 pm

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 5):
I would doubt any major orders until Airbus puts out more operational performance data on the white whale and the successful and on-time integration of the GP7200 engines is complete.

Indeed. A 2007 order (or even two) would be much more likely than a 2006 order.

As for the 70 options, how many of those were placed after Boing launched the SuperJumbo? Zero, right?
 
WINGS
Topic Author
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:38 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 6):

As for the 70 options, how many of those were placed after Boing launched the SuperJumbo? Zero, right?

How many B748i have been orders so far? Don't have to count much.
Quoting Sangas (Reply 3):
The current list of option holders may be a logical place to begin looking for potential 2006 order candidates:

AF 04
FX 10
KE 03
LH 10
QF 10
QR 02
SQ 15
5X 10
VS 06

Total = 70

Good point Sangas.

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 4):
I'd add Air China to the list as well.

Will do.

Regards,
Wings

[Edited 2006-05-13 11:39:41]
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
Sangas
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:40 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 6):
As for the 70 options, how many of those were placed after Boing launched the SuperJumbo? Zero, right?



None. Sales have been dismal since the maiden flight last April. Nevertheless, I've seen media reports that it's possible LH, QF, and SQ may exercise options this year.
A camel only sees the other camels' humps
 
zvezda
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:53 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 7):
How many B748i have been orders so far? Don't have to count much.

The whole VLA market is dismal right now. It is either saturated (at the moment) or everyone is in wait-and-see mode. I suspect it is a combination of the two and that we won't see much movement this year. I think there will be some VLA sales in 2007, but nothing really exciting. Similarly, I expect B787 sales to slow starting about a year from now.
 
krisyyz
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:56 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 7):
How many B748i have been orders so far? Don't have to count much.

please lets not go down this road again. The A380 and B747-8 are in totally different stages of design/construction/production. I don`t for a second think that the B747-8 will be a massive success but it hasn`t even completely gotten off the drawing board.
 
WINGS
Topic Author
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 6:58 pm

Lufthansa
Singapore Airlines
Ethiad
Qatar (So far they only have 2 on order)
Iberia
South African Airlines (via ILFC)
China Airlines
China Eastern
Asiana
Emirates (conversion of their A346 order?)
Air China
Private Customer


Thanks to Sangas we also have the following list of customers that hold option for the A380.


Air France AF 04
Fed EX FX 10
Korean Airlines KE 03
Lufthansa LH 10
Qantas QF 10
Qatar QR 02
Singapore Airlines SQ 15
United Parcel Service 5X 10
Virgin Atlantic VS 06

Total = 70


Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
WINGS
Topic Author
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 7:04 pm

Quoting KrisYYZ (Reply 10):
please lets not go down this road again. The A380 and B747-8 are in totally different stages of design/construction/production. I don`t for a second think that the B747-8 will be a massive success but it hasn't`t even completely gotten off the drawing board.

While their is some truth to your statement, we also have the B787 as another example. Look at the numbers that it managed to attract even before the final freeze. The B787 is considered a major risk project while the B748i is based upon a proven and reliable workhorse.

I do recognize that the B748F will indeed be a major success although at this present time I do not see the B748i doing the same.

Regards,
Wings

[Edited 2006-05-13 12:04:41]
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
manni
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 7:12 pm

I wont hold my breath,but... It has been very quiet lately on Airbus front as far as new orders are concerned for any of their aircraft. Airbus might have saved up a few surprises for the ILA next week. I wouldn't rule out LH converting some A380 options at their homeground.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Most airliners gather few if any orders during the 12 months prior EIS

That's a valid point, but no exact sience. Boeing sold 2 777s in the 12 months prior to EIS. However Airbus hinted that they would sign up atleast one new customer (which might or might not include a private customer) and add on orders from existing customers this year.
SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
 
Sangas
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 7:26 pm

IMO, Airbus will have to offer a lower CASM, higher performance derivative (A388R?) to reinvigorate A388 sales. The 130 odd pax versions of the baseline model on firm order for delivery through 2012 is already a lot for the worldwide fleet to absorb.
A camel only sees the other camels' humps
 
FCKC
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 8:38 pm

Asiana will buy A380s and doesn't see any interest for the 747-8.
They will also buy 787s , without studying the A350.

These orders are conditionned to gain more cities in the USA (for the 787 order) , and to have the green light to open ICN-CDG , 3 times a week (777) (for the A380 order).

That's nobody else than the CEO of OZ himself who made these statements !!!!!!!
 
Sjoerd
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 8:58 pm

BA has got to order at some point. Maybe 2006 is too early.

Sjoerd

[Edited 2006-05-13 13:58:49]
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
zvezda
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 9:17 pm

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 16):
BA has got to order at some point.

BA might well decide that they don't need anything larger than the B787-10.
 
Glareskin
Posts: 1001
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 9:19 pm

CI will go for some freighters. Possibly some pax versions too. And it would be really cool if KL would replace the 747 fleet by 773 and A388. Does make sense both capacity wise and from the standpoint of commonality within the AF/KL fleet. But maybe it is too early to expect announcements about that in 2006. twocents 
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
Thorben
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 9:24 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 13):
That's a valid point, but no exact sience. Boeing sold 2 777s in the 12 months prior to EIS. However Airbus hinted that they would sign up atleast one new customer (which might or might not include a private customer) and add on orders from existing customers this year.

I read that somewhere, too. I guess they would be announced either at the ILA or at Farnborough.

The reasons for the lack of sales at the moment are obvious. The line is sold out until around 2010 and Airbus will not give significant discounts since they have a monopoly in that segment.

My guess for airlines buying the A380 would be:
Cathay Pacific
Jet Airways
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
PADSpot
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 9:28 pm

Quoting Sangas (Reply 3):
The current list of option holders may be a logical place to begin looking for potential 2006 order candidates:

I don't think that option holdern will excercise their options before they have seen the operational performance of the A380.

The next A380 order will come from China. Given their economic growth and the amount of people who will be able to travel in, lets say 2015, there is simply no alterantive to the A380 for them ... Same goes for India but maybe a littler later ...
 
trex8
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 9:31 pm

CA or some other Chinese carrier needs A380s for the Olympics (if for prestige if nothing else) but that may mean an actual lease initially from ILFC to get the planes on time for that date.
I think a CI order is far less certain and the 747-8 probably a better fit but if the economics of the A380 look good after EIS with other airlines, it would work well on flights to the US west coast.
 
MaartenV
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 9:34 pm

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 18):
And it would be really cool if KL would replace the 747 fleet by 773 and A388.

KLM has already stated a couple of times that the A388 will not be part of their fleet since their would only be 1 or 2 routes in their system that would support an aircraft that big (I think AMS-DTW and AMS-MSP). They only have 5 full pax 744s right now which will be replaced when time comes by 773ERs. If they really need anything bigger then that, they will probably go for the 748i, but I don't even think that that will happen.
Its all about supply and demand...
 
Sangas
Posts: 173
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 9:57 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 13):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Most airliners gather few if any orders during the 12 months prior EIS

That's a valid point, but no exact sience. Boeing sold 2 777s in the 12 months prior to EIS.

It would be interesting to know for the sake of comparison if the A340 gained any new customers during that "limbo" period, whether all potential customers in that size class took a wait-and-see posture?
A camel only sees the other camels' humps
 
zvezda
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 10:28 pm

Quoting MaartenV (Reply 22):
KLM has already stated a couple of times that the A388 will not be part of their fleet since their would only be 1 or 2 routes in their system that would support an aircraft that big (I think AMS-DTW and AMS-MSP). They only have 5 full pax 744s right now which will be replaced when time comes by 773ERs. If they really need anything bigger then that, they will probably go for the 748i, but I don't even think that that will happen.

I agree. The B747-8I is too big for KLM.
 
boeingfanyyz
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 10:29 pm

May seem somewhat far-fetched, but I think AC could be a possible customer.

If you think about it, AC created a gap by retiring their 744's, and that gap needs to be filled. Now, the 787's/777's or the 343/5's cannot fill that gap for extra-longhaul voyages. Amid recent Boeing orders, AC is also known to have a strong like for Airbus a/c's, as a large portion of their fleet are indeed Airbus. Although it will be quite some time, it could happen.

Just my $0.02 (CDN)

Cheers,
Boeingfanyyz  airplane 
"If it aint boeing, it aint going!", "Friends are like condoms...they protect you when things get hard!"
 
blast
Posts: 105
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 10:31 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see SA order two or three to operate on the LHR route.
 
Sangas
Posts: 173
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 8:52 pm

RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 10:38 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 24):
The B747-8I is too big for KLM.

The 744M has worked well for KL, since the regulators no longer favor combi aircraft, replacing it won't be easy.
A camel only sees the other camels' humps
 
zvezda
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 10:45 pm

Quoting Boeingfanyyz (Reply 25):
AC created a gap by retiring their 744's, and that gap needs to be filled.

Wrong.

Quoting Boeingfanyyz (Reply 25):
Now, the 787's/777's or the 343/5's cannot fill that gap for extra-longhaul voyages.

Wrong. AC have no need for anything larger than a B777-300ER. Even that may be on the large size for them, however, nothing smaller and presently available can match the B777-300ER on CASM.
 
SA7700
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 10:45 pm

Quoting FCKC (Reply 15):
That's nobody else than the CEO of OZ himself who made these statements !!!!!!!

Could you please provide a link to these statements?

Quoting Blast (Reply 26):
I wouldn't be surprised to see SA order two or three to operate on the LHR route.

SA may aquire 2x A380's in the future. However, IMHO it will be via ILFC (as WINGS indicated in the thread start).


Rgds

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
abba
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 10:47 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
Similarly, I expect B787 sales to slow starting about a year from now.

To me it seems as if that slowing down has lasted for quite a few months now....

Abba
 
connies4ever
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 10:53 pm

Quoting Boeingfanyyz (Reply 25):
May seem somewhat far-fetched, but I think AC could be a possible customer.

If you think about it, AC created a gap by retiring their 744's, and that gap needs to be filled. Now, the 787's/777's or the 343/5's cannot fill that gap for extra-longhaul voyages. Amid recent Boeing orders, AC is also known to have a strong like for Airbus a/c's, as a large portion of their fleet are indeed Airbus. Although it will be quite some time, it could happen.


Zero chance. AC's mini 747 fleet was most recently 3x747 Combis which had about 300 pax + freight. More than easily replaced by 777-300ERs. As well, maintaining adequate crew availability for a fleet of three, mx for a fleet of three, is really not practical.

Historically, I think the max number of 747s AC ever had in the fleet at one time was 7 (3x74Ms originally bought and 4x747-400s via CP). Not a lot of AC routes can support a a/c that size:

YVR-NRT
YVR-HKG
YYZ-LHR
YYZ-FRA
YUL-CDG

and that's about it. From many perspectives, it makes more sense to offer more frequency with slightly smaller a/c: crewing, mx, marketing, convenience.

As for AC liking Airbus, well, they've had good results overall althoguh my understanding is that the 340 has not quite lived up to promises. The narrow-body family is great.

Mr Milton is quite open in his fondness for things Boeing, btw.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
zvezda
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 11:01 pm

Quoting Abba (Reply 30):
To me it seems as if that slowing down has lasted for quite a few months now....

59 firm orders from 5 customers in the last two months is evidence of slowing down?
 
Sangas
Posts: 173
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sat May 13, 2006 11:05 pm

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 29):
Quoting FCKC (Reply 15):
That's nobody else than the CEO of OZ himself who made these statements !!!!!!!

Could you please provide a link to these statements?

Asiana considers both Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 orders, rejects A350

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+Boeing+787+orders%2c+rejects.html
A camel only sees the other camels' humps
 
krisyyz
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 12:23 am

Quoting Boeingfanyyz (Reply 25):
May seem somewhat far-fetched, but I think AC could be a possible customer.

nornway, AC Horizons magazine had a special section on the A380 in whichrnthey made it very clear the AC has no need nor future plans for such arnaircraft. As mentioned above, AC bought the B773ERs to replace thernB744Ms and the business plan is geared against 4 engine aircraft.
 
SKY1
Posts: 611
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 12:40 am

Iberia will not buy the 380, no at least on a short term.
Time flies! Enjoy life!
 
USADreamliner
Posts: 1211
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 1:25 am

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
Iberia

I don't think IB is in conditions to buy the A380. And only the routes to EZE and MEX and maybe MIA would make this aircraft a viable option for Iberia.


On my list are : Air China
Korean Air



USADreamliner
 
A342
Posts: 4017
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 1:43 am

Quoting USADreamliner (Reply 36):
On my list are : (...) Korean Air

No surprise, since they already bought 5.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
redflyer
Posts: 3881
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 1:48 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
we won't see much movement this year.

Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't personally buy that. It's been almost a full year since the last order was placed for an A380 (at the last major airshow, no less). Given that Airbus has touted the A380 as "the future of air travel", I don't believe they are going to let the dry spell last too much longer. I have no doubt Farnborough will produce additional A380 orders, either in the form of option conversions or new orders.

I'd wager SQ is at the top of the list -- they were the ones who made some of the strongest public comments about their dissatisfaction with the delay in EIS. I suspect some of Airbus' penalty compensations for the delay was in the form of additional discounts (credits) on future orders.
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
astuteman
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 2:47 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 38):
I'd wager SQ is at the top of the list -- they were the ones who made some of the strongest public comments about their dissatisfaction with the delay in EIS. I suspect some of Airbus' penalty compensations for the delay was in the form of additional discounts (credits) on future orders.

IIRC SQ also said last week they were now happy with what they were seeing. If that's the case, SQ could be a possible this year.

Like you I don't expect NO orders any more than I expect an avalanche.
I suspect Airbus will pull an "unexpected" (Asiana maybe?) 5-10 frame new customer out of the bag this year.

The major carriers holding options are likely to have much more information once the fully outfitted A380's (like SQ's for example) start final trials.
If they're happy with what they see, some could firm up before year end - otherwise it'll be next year before major movement takes place.

On the other side of the coin, I haven't yet heard any of these increasingly vociferous airlines indicating any cancellations or postponements yet. That has to be good news for Airbus at this time.

Regards
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 2:57 am

Airlines are also waiting to see to what extent passengers go out of their way to book themselves on flights operated by the large VLA, the widely-used nickname of which is unmentionable on A.net. That will become clear only in 2007. The next order announcement might be at Le Bourget.
 
boeingfanyyz
Posts: 970
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 3:04 am

Quoting Krisyyz (Reply 34):

Thanks for the clarification.  thumbsup  Perhaps when/if fuel prices drop down, AC might bring the topic back up.

By the way, I'd recommend using spell-check!!! LOL  wink 

Quoting Krisyyz (Reply 34):
nornway



Quoting Krisyyz (Reply 34):
whichrnthey



Quoting Krisyyz (Reply 34):
arnaircraft



Quoting Krisyyz (Reply 34):
thern

Cheers,
Boeingfanyyz  airplane 
"If it aint boeing, it aint going!", "Friends are like condoms...they protect you when things get hard!"
 
A342
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 3:06 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 40):
Airlines are also waiting to see to what extent passengers go out of their way to book themselves on flights operated by the large VLA

They are also waiting to see to what extent passengers will jump on A380 flights because at the moment, looking at passenger comfort, there is nothing better in sight for the very near future.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
mika10021
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2004 9:28 am

RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 3:13 am

My guess is Iberia for their South American routes.KLM may take a couple from Air France but the next big order will come from Asia( China or India)
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 3:19 am

Quoting A342 (Reply 42):

They are also waiting to see to what extent passengers will jump on A380 flights because at the moment, looking at passenger comfort, there is nothing better in sight for the very near future.

Not true. Cabin floor area does not determine comfort -- not even seat comfort. Even if the air quality were the same, I'd prefer 2-4-2 seating on a B787 than 3-4-3 seating on a very large double decker. In fact, cabin air quality will not be the same and that will make the B787 more comfortable than any other airliner.
 
rootsair
Posts: 4012
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 3:21 am

Quoting USADreamliner (Reply 36):

I don't think IB is in conditions to buy the A380. And only the routes to EZE and MEX and maybe MIA would make this aircraft a viable option for Iberia.

HAV would also be a possibility. Then again could HAV hold an A380 ? that's the question
A man without the knowledge of his past history,culture and origins is like a tree without roots
 
krisyyz
Posts: 1266
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RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 4:49 am

Quoting Boeingfanyyz (Reply 41):

sorry I'm in Europe using a Hungarian keyboard, don't know why that happened.
 
SA7700
Posts: 2940
Joined: Thu Dec 18, 2003 9:38 pm

RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 5:21 am

Quoting Mika10021 (Reply 43):
KLM may take a couple from Air France

Theoretically, on which routes would KL use these A380's?


Rgds

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
FCKC
Posts: 1630
Joined: Sun Nov 21, 2004 9:39 pm

RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 8:49 am

As already mentionned in another thread , China will need 200 size A380 planes in the next 20 years.China will built 48 new airports in the country !!!!!!!!
You see , despite massive orders already signed by Chinese carriers , we are at the very beginning of the growth of aviation in this country.
And i do not speak here of biz jets...............
Impressive !!!!!!!!!!
 
MaartenV
Posts: 261
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:16 am

RE: Possible A380 Orders In 2006

Sun May 14, 2006 9:16 am

Quoting Mika10021 (Reply 43):
KLM may take a couple from Air France



Quoting SA7700 (Reply 47):
Theoretically, on which routes would KL use these A380's?

KLM has already said a couple of times that the A380 would only be supported by a few routes, being AMS-DTW and if i recall correctly AMS-MSP (because of NWA connecting traffic).

They also said that they preferred operating these routes with smaller aircraft doing more flights a day to make the connections more efficient.

Therefore the chances that KLM will get A380s are very very small.
Its all about supply and demand...

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