BoomBoom
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Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 2:35 pm

According to Oxford Analytica, "Airbus is at risk of losing most of the 200-500 seat market."

Quote:
A decision to abandon the current A350 and create a new family would restore Airbus' market position in the long run. However, it would have painful consequences for the next six-eight years:

-- Credibility issues: Airbus would be forced to admit that it launched a plane and made performance promises to customers well before the design was finalized. It would also tell the financial community that none of the booked orders were truly firm.

-- Short-term sales losses: Current A350 customers might defect to the 787, and short-term sales prospects fall to Boeing.

-- If Airbus must spend heavily on a new wide-body design, it will have a difficult time finding resources for a new narrow-body.

Airbus has little choice but to announce a full redesign of its forthcoming A350 aircraft in order to compete with the 787. This will lead to increased outlays, diminished strategic options for EADS, and medium-term damage to Airbus's wide-body market position. Boeing looks set to steal a march on its rival over the next six-eight years.

Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm.
http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/...-airbus-profit-cx_0518oxford.html#
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777ER
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 2:39 pm

I personally think that the A350 customers will be asking some serious questions about if they can wait for the all new A350 (A370) or go with the B787 in till they can get the new A350 or order new A330s intill they can receive their delayed A350s
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leelaw
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 2:57 pm

"Even with the A380 burden, Airbus unquestionably sees the wisdom of funding a new wide-body family. Yet its parent company, the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS), has its own concerns and constraints. Airbus has historically provided most of EADS's profits. However, there is no guarantee that Airbus still enjoys the political clout needed to dictate EADS's spending decisions. EADS is also focused on other issues.

Given the size of the market at stake, Airbus has little choice but to announce a full redesign of its forthcoming A350 aircraft in order to compete with the 787. This will lead to increased outlays, diminished strategic options for EADS, and medium-term damage to Airbus's wide-body market position. Boeing looks set to steal a march on its rival over the next six-eight years."


Interesting concept: EADS v. Airbus?
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andessmf
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 3:05 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 1):
or order new A330s intill they can receive their delayed A350s

Tha sounds like a good option, but the problem could be the residual value for the A330s that would be made quickly obsolete after the A350 introduction.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 3:18 pm

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 3):
Tha sounds like a good option, but the problem could be the residual value for the A330s that would be made quickly obsolete after the A350 introduction.

Simple not true. The A330-200 made the B767-300ER obsolete - still many were ordered after the A332 was launched, many are still flying, and there are still carriers which launch with this aircraft.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
saturn5
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 3:34 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
-- If Airbus must spend heavily on a new wide-body design, it will have a difficult time finding resources for a new narrow-body.

They probably mean human resources because I don't think they will have any financial difficulties - they will go and get another one of those "repay-only-if-you-want" type of a loan.
 
keesje
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 4:47 pm

If I remember the press were drawing the same conclusion when only Boeing wanted the Sonic Cruiser.

On the A380 comments, my compliments to Randy for learning the press we have to compare 450 seat 748s vs 550 seat A380s per seat economics.

About the 777 vs 340 legend: everybody avoids to notice that even Boeing spells the end of the 772 & no 777 has been sold this year, A340s have..

"Short-term sales losses: Current A350 customers might defect to the 787, and short-term sales prospects fall to Boeing."
First slots in 2011/2012 .. is 5-6 years short term sales prospects?

Of course JAL, Qantas & NWA are blue chip carriers but what about the fact that Boeing reinvented itself in terms of prices & financial conditions. Or the fact that few of the international blue chip carriers ordered the 787.

Picking out some highlights & ignoring others can create perceptions, repeating them endlessly believes.

I have the feeling after Farnborough people might have a different view.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
brendows
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 5:18 pm

Oh, it Keesje, you know better than this...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
About the 777 vs 340 legend: everybody avoids to notice that even Boeing spells the end of the 772 & no 777 has been sold this year, A340s have..

If you were offering a product, and another manufacturer the competitor came up with a direct competitor, what would you have done? Nothing? When it comes to sales so far this year for the A340/777, wait until the end of the year, things may have changed dramatically... No need to be grumpy over what happened with the A340 last year Keesje...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Of course JAL, Qantas & NWA are blue chip carriers but what about the fact that Boeing reinvented itself in terms of prices & financial conditions. Or the fact that few of the international blue chip carriers ordered the 787.

And Airbus doesn't sell their airliners at low prices with special financial conditions to its possible customers? Of course they do, and you know it. Qantas was lost due to the better performance of the 787, the price was about the same, and as we know, the listprice for the A350 is higher. You can do the math... Get over it Keesje, and start realizing that Boeing did their homework right this time with the 787, Airbus didn't.
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 5:22 pm

Quoting Saturn5 (Reply 5):
they will go and get another one of those "repay-only-if-you-want" type of a loan.

Repeating it again and again doesnt necessarily make it true.
 
leelaw
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 5:32 pm

Quoting Brendows (Reply 7):
And Airbus doesn't sell their airliners at low prices with special financial conditions to its possible customers? Of course they do, and you know it. Qantas was lost due to the better performance of the 787, the price was about the same, and as we know, the listprice for the A350 is higher. You can do the math... Get over it Keesje, and start realizing that Boeing did their homework right this time with the 787, Airbus didn't.

The QF order has really stuck in his craw. Interestingly, some say it was the results of the A350/787 competition at QF that turned Mr. Udvar-Hazy against the "old all-new" because the battlefield between the OEMs was level.
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Thorben
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 5:35 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 2):
"Even with the A380 burden, Airbus unquestionably sees the wisdom of funding a new wide-body family. Yet its parent company, the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS), has its own concerns and constraints. Airbus has historically provided most of EADS's profits. However, there is no guarantee that Airbus still enjoys the political clout needed to dictate EADS's spending decisions. EADS is also focused on other issues.

Given the size of the market at stake, Airbus has little choice but to announce a full redesign of its forthcoming A350 aircraft in order to compete with the 787. This will lead to increased outlays, diminished strategic options for EADS, and medium-term damage to Airbus's wide-body market position. Boeing looks set to steal a march on its rival over the next six-eight years."

Interesting concept: EADS v. Airbus?

Airbus is the best thing EADS has, the rest (space, defense etc.) is rather tiny compared to that. Therefore I don't expect EADS to restrict money that Airbus would need to be competitive.

The title of this thread is very misleading. Boeing my lead the market between 200 and 500 seats for a while, but Airbus still has enough backlog on its A330/340 line. If they renew the A350, then they might have to keep that lin busy until 2012, meaning lower price sales, but also eating into the 777s sales.
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sebolino
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 6:08 pm

Quoting Saturn5 (Reply 5):
they will go and get another one of those "repay-only-if-you-want" type of a loan.

Am I the only one to be fed up with this ridiculous argument used all the time ?
 
airways45
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 9:08 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
According to Oxford Analytica, "Airbus is at risk of losing most of the 200-500 seat market."

More of the same. One day I'll read something new, enlightened, and refreshing. One day.

Airways45
 
parapente
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 9:18 pm

It seems that Airbus is choosing to fight in the 787-10,777-200,and above,sectors of the market with their new proposed aircraft.

Perhaps they will go for a simple re-engine of the A330 as they origonally proposed and make as many sales as they can against the 787-8,9 by discounting?
 
Thorben
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 9:30 pm

Quoting Parapente (Reply 13):
It seems that Airbus is choosing to fight in the 787-10,777-200,and above,sectors of the market with their new proposed aircraft.

Stretched versions might also take on the 773 and the 747-8. And the shortest one would be around the size of the 789.

Quoting Parapente (Reply 13):
Perhaps they will go for a simple re-engine of the A330 as they origonally proposed and make as many sales as they can against the 787-8,9 by discounting?

Perhaps an A332 with new engines and some new technology can compete with the 788. It isn't always the better plane who wins, sometimes price, delivery date, and other issues are the deciding factor.
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NAV20
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 9:40 pm

Quoting Parapente (Reply 13):
It seems that Airbus is choosing to fight in the 787-10,777-200,and above,sectors

Thing is, Parapente, your mention of 'above' makes it two distinct sectors, not one.

My original take on Airbus' decision was that they had decided to give the 787 best and concentrate on a '9-across twin' in the up-to-350-seat sector to compete with the 787-10 and the larger-capacity 777s (an 'A370'). In my view that would be the right decision. But subsequent discussions have suggested that they are still thinking of somehow producing a competitor for the 787 (yet another 'A350') in time for it to make some difference.

Given their big financial commitments to finalising and producing the A380, continuing with the A400, and buying out BAE when they exercise their put option in a week or so, Airbus MAY be able to fund making a start on ONE new design in 2006/7. But my guess is that there is no way they can go full steam ahead on TWO new designs, on top of their other commitments, without giving themselves a cash flow problem.

I reckon that that is very possibly what the evident Forgeard/Humbert split is about. One wants to produce two designs, the other only one. Interestingly, I can't make up my mind which of the two protagonists supports which strategy; though my current guess is that Humbert (who keeps talking about 'profitability') favours the 'A370' option.

[Edited 2006-05-23 14:42:35]
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boeingbus
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 9:42 pm

Quoting Parapente (Reply 13):
It seems that Airbus is choosing to fight in the 787-10,777-200,and above,sectors of the market with their new proposed aircraft.

The only problem I have with this... is that the larger twins do not need replacement for many airlines. 777 is a modern aircraft w/ great economics. I would pool the A332/3 in there as well.

What needs to be replaced are the old 767's, and A300/10... oh and what can be debated is the A342/3, as well.

Airbus continues to not have an answer for airlines replacing medium sized twins. The A358 just does not cut it....

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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 10:11 pm

The 787 family appears to be more...flexable...then either the A350MkIV or A350MkV family. It offers a replacement option for B753, B763, B764, B772, A306, A310, A332, A333, A342 and A343 operators.

The A350MkIV seems aimed at the B764, A333, A343, and B772 markets.

The A350MkV seems aimed at the B764, B772, A333, A343, A346, and B773 markets.

As BoeingBus has noted, the A346 and B773 markets are young. By the time the -1000 model enters service in 2014, it is unlikely many A346 and B773 operators will be actively looking to replace their planes - even SQ's will be below the ten-year "retirement ceiling". And during the next eight years, operators will be acquiring new A346s and B773s, filling many of the potential orders the -1000 model could use.

The two B764 operators will choose the 787 (one of them already having done so).

So that leaves the A333, A343, and B772 markets. They're not small, to be sure, but the 787 is already selling into them now and will continue to do so for years before Airbus can EIS their replacement.

Of course, it is easy for us to "arm-chair" these decisions, not only for the manufacturers, but the airlines. But Boeing does seem to have a better hand, even if they hold no "trump cards".
 
redflyer
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 10:16 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
Simple not true. The A330-200 made the B767-300ER obsolete - still many were ordered after the A332 was launched, many are still flying, and there are still carriers which launch with this aircraft.

Good point. I think the problem with the A330 where Airbus is concerned is that its life-cycle (read revenue generation) have been cut short. Until the 787 came along, Airbus probably expected strong A330 revenues for some years to come. It is, after all, a relatively young model. By switching to the A350 (whatever iteration you want to compare), they've essentially stepped over the A330.

This is one reason Boeing is probably sweating a little over the A350MkV: it poses the potential problem of rendering obsolete the 777 and thereby cutting short its revenue generating life-cycle.
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keesje
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Tue May 23, 2006 10:30 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 16):
The only problem I have with this... is that the larger twins do not need replacement for many airlines. 777 is a modern aircraft w/ great economics. I would pool the A332/3 in there as well.

What needs to be replaced are the old 767's, and A300/10... oh and what can be debated is the A342/3, as well.

Makes sense. Many 757s, 762, 310's, seems a pretty large replacement market to me. I have the feeling the future for <240 seats is single aisle. The cost levels are so much lower..
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baroque
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 11):
Am I the only one to be fed up with this ridiculous argument used all the time ?

No you are not the only one. The following should be made compulsory reading.
House of Commons Trade and Industry Committee The UK Aerospace Industry
Fifteenth Report of Session 2004-05 Report, together with formal minutes Ordered by The House of Commons to be printed 22 March 2005 GBP12.00

The UK now call it repayable launch investment. Other House of Commons papers show why the UK Treasury (and I assume the French and German equivalents) are only too keen to help. The Royalties are rolling in from the A32x program (known) and the A330/340 program (inferred from the small amount outstanding in 1999).

Is it possible to come up with similar references from France and Germany? It would be nice to try and slow those references down with a mass of facts. Investing in RLI begins to look better than buying bonds, you get full repayment with interest and then an override for the full life of the program.
 
sparkingwave
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 12:28 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
About the 777 vs 340 legend: everybody avoids to notice that even Boeing spells the end of the 772 & no 777 has been sold this year, A340s have..

No A380s have been sold either, have they? Does this mean the A380 will suffer the same fate as you imply the 777 will?

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BoomBoom
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 12:29 am

Quote:
-- Boeing 747 update: Boeing has launched an updated 747, the -8. While it seats 450 passengers and will not compete directly with the A380, the 747-8's fuel efficiency could rule out the use of an A380 on routes that do not utilize its full 550 seats. This means Airbus is at risk of losing most of the 200-500 seat market.
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DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 12:37 am

Interesting speculation by a consulting firm. However, no one can really predict what airline is going to order which airplane 6 years from now, especially when we dont know the specs yet on either the A-350-v5 or the 787-10 yet. Except for the recently announced "we'll stick with the A-350 even though we dont what airplane we have actually ordered yet" crowd......

Certainly a one of a kind order in the history of aviation if there ever was one.
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manni
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 12:47 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 22):
While it seats 450 passengers and will not compete directly with the A380, the 747-8's fuel efficiency could rule out the use of an A380 on routes that do not utilize its full 550 seats.

Allow me to do the same, and if you dont I will anyway. The 773 (350 seats) could rule out the use of an 748 (450 seats) on routes that do not utilize its full 450 seats. The 250 seater 788 could rule out the use of the 773 on routes that do not utilize its full 350 seats. You've got be Singapore Airlines (abusing the 777) or have deep pockets to fly airliners on routes that do not require the capacity that the airliner has.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 16):

Airbus continues to not have an answer for airlines replacing medium sized twins. The A358 just does not cut it....

We really dont know at the moment. Untill their plans are known, and not via industry 'experts', but from Airbus themselfes.
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rj777
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 12:49 am

And Boeing is doing it single-handedly with just one Aircraft! Way to go Boeing!
 
andessmf
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 12:53 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
If I remember the press were drawing the same conclusion when only Boeing wanted the Sonic Cruiser

The sonic cruiser was cancelled after lack of interest.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
About the 777 vs 340 legend: everybody avoids to notice that even Boeing spells the end of the 772 & no 777 has been sold this year, A340s have..

Bad choice of timing for a comparison, you take a look at long range, and the results arent good.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 14):
Stretched versions might also take on the 773 and the 747-8. And the shortest one would be around the size of the 789.

That would be a looooong airliner, and some airports already cant handle the A346 very well.
 
flyinghippo
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 12:59 am

Well, until Airbus decides what the A350 will look like and freezes the design, it will be hard to predict how they well do against Boeing. However, it is fair to say that Boeing have the advantage of first to market, and the order books is very healthy.

Like someone mentioned above, the final A350/A370 design will compete with the larger end of twin engine market, (A333, 764, 773ER) and replace some large quads (A345, A346), Airbus still needs a solution for the hundres 757s, 767s, 332s out there that will need to be replaced in the next 5-10 years. A A350-short version might be a bit heavy, but you never know what Airbus might come up with.

And lastly, 787-3 and -8 will have an earlier EIS, and with the need for replacement for 757/767/A300/A310, and some A332/333s coming up sooner than the 772/3 and A345/6, things are looking better for Boeing.
 
flyinTLow
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 1:08 am

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 11):

Am I the only one to be fed up with this ridiculous argument used all the time ?

No, most definitely not. And I find it beyond amusing to see some grown-up men (and women possibly, don't want to offend anyone here) throw fits like school kids fighting on the playground when it comes to someone saying something more positive about one of the manufactures.
- When dreams take flight, follow them -
 
slz396
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:04 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 10):
The title of this thread is very misleading.

The title reflects the most vivid wish of the thread starter, hence his slanted interpretation of what the article says.
Since it is a given fact people on this site often limit the discussion only to the quoted paragraphs and do not make use of the entire text available in the link, I take the opportunity to add a different quote from the article, putting the outlook in a somewhat different perspective.

If Airbus launches an all-new, wide-body family to replace both the A340 and A350, the company can potentially secure at least 50% of the market as soon as the new family comes on line.

Since credible rumours and even public comments from Airbus executives are hinting quite strongly this 'IF' may be understood as a 'WHEN', the regained lead of Boeing as announced by BoomBoom seems to be rather short lived then...

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 3):
Yhe problem with ordering A330s as a stop gap could be the residual value for the A330s that would be made quickly obsolete after the A350 introduction.

The A330 is said to be a fantastic platform for freighters and the freight business is booming, so I'd suppose any A330s built as stop gap would be more than welcome for conversion? With no 787F on the horizon, this plane would certainly hit a sweet spot in the freighter market and if it wouldn't be for Airbus's stretched production capacity of passenger A330s, it would have launched this plane already years ago.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 16):
The larger twins do not need replacement for many airlines; the 777 is a modern aircraft with great economics.

and:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
Both the A346 and B773 markets are young. By the time the -1000 model enters service in 2014, it is unlikely many A346 and B773 operators will be actively looking to replace their planes - even SQ's will be below the ten-year "retirement ceiling". And during the next eight years, operators will still be acquiring new A346s and B773s, filling many of the potential orders the -1000 model could use.

Several airlines have recently dropped new A346s in favour of the 773 for a fuel delta of roughly 10%, so if the A350-1000 can improve the economics of the 773 by 10% as well I would not be too sure all 773s and especially A346s would still be kept by their users, simply because their retirement cycle is not there yet. Mind you: a 10% improvement is conservative, as the 'old' A350-900 was already promising a 20% improvement over the 772...

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 18):
This is one reason Boeing is probably sweating a little over the A350MkV: it poses the potential problem of rendering obsolete the 777 and thereby cutting short its revenue generating life-cycle.

Absolutely, I think once the A350-1000 is launched it is not impossible to see not all 777-300ERs currently on order will actually be build and/or delivered to the airlines which have ordered them....

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
The 787 family appears to be more...flexible...then either the A350MkIV or A350MkV family. It offers a replacement option for B753, B763, B764, B772, A306, A310, A332, A333, A342 and A343 operators.

The A350MkIV seems aimed at the B764, A333, A343, and B772 markets.

The A350MkV seems aimed at the B764, B772, A333, A343, A346, and B773 markets.

Indeed, the 787 is a plane aimed at 2 very different markets which is the basis of its success as well as it's weakness at the same time, because it ultimately is a compromise design in some perspectives.

When the decision to counter the 787 was made, Airbus understood there would be no use in doing a 787-clone and thus started looking for weeknesses in the 787 and must surely have detected the ambiguity in the 787. It then had to choose between an attack on the low end or the high end and they initially opted for the cheapest of both, trying to counter the 787 with the A350KkIV. As this was only a heavily improved derivate of the A330 and the 787 happens to be designed primarily for the low end segment, it couldn't make a dent in the 787, so as NAV20 rightfully says it seems Airbus have changed plan now and

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 15):
have decided to give the 787 best and concentrate on a '9-across twin' in the up-to-350-seat sector to compete with the 787-10 and the larger-capacity 777s (an 'A370').

Since the 787 is optimized more for the low end, it will have a hard time fighting an all new A350mkV specifically made for this segment.

Quoting FlyingHippo (Reply 27):
Airbus still needs a solution for the hundreds 757s, 767s, 332s out there that will need to be replaced in the next 5-10 years.

I have often wondered: does Airbus actually need to offer something in this segment? There certainly still is a market for a plane in this category, although over the last decade many airlines which used to operate planes in this segment (e.g. 757) stepped out of it by either going for smaller planes adding more frequencies, or by growing to larger planes. It looks like the remaining future market will be predominantly US based and maybe Airbus has ruled they can't capture enough of what is considered a Boeing stronghold anyhow to warrant an investment of theirs in this segment.
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:20 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
The title reflects the most vivid wish of the thread starter, hence his slanted interpretation of what the article says.
Since it is a given fact people on this site often limit the discussion only to the quoted paragraphs and do not make use of the entire text available in the link, I take the opportunity to add a different quote from the article, putting the outlook in a somewhat different perspective.

If Airbus launches an all-new, wide-body family to replace both the A340 and A350, the company can potentially secure at least 50% of the market as soon as the new family comes on line.

Why does the quote you made from the article being discussed invalidate the title of this thread?

The A350/370 won't be online until 2012 at the earliest. Isn't that six years from now? Isn't that what the thread title said?
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deltadc9
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:27 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 13):
It seems that Airbus is choosing to fight in the 787-10,777-200,and above,sectors of the market with their new proposed aircraft.

And leaving the lower end to Boeing exclusevly.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 18):
This is one reason Boeing is probably sweating a little over the A350MkV: it poses the potential problem of rendering obsolete the 777 and thereby cutting short its revenue generating life-cycle.

Cutting short? The 777 has already sold more planes than any Airbus widebody model. The 777 will hit 1000 just like every other Boeing widebody, even if the last ones are for frieght and military only.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 26):
The sonic cruiser was cancelled after lack of interest

Not true at all. AA took the first several years of production slots, and other airlines were interested. 9-11 killed the sonic cruiser in its first form, the second form is kicking ass right now.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 26):
That would be a looooong airliner, and some airports already cant handle the A346 very well.

That is exactly what I was thinking.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
Absolutely, I think once the A350-1000 is launched it is not impossible to see not all 777-300ERs currently on order will actually be build and/or delivered to the airlines which have ordered them....

Maybe a few, but most 777 orders are for big 777 fleet operators who are unlikely to make such a knee jerk reaction. Many are Boeing widebody only too.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
Since the 787 is optimized more for the low end,

This is not true, the bigger the 787, the more efficient.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
slz396
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:32 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 30):
Why does the quote you made from the article being discussed invalidate the title of this thread?

Did I say I wanted to invalidate the title of this thread?
 
boeingbus
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:33 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
Several airlines have recently dropped new A346s in favour of the 773 for a fuel delta of roughly 10%, so if the A350-1000 can improve the economics of the 773 by 10% as well

OK, lets not forget that the larger the plane, the less market there is for it.

So why does Airbus continue to go after the smaller piece of the plane segment pie? It just doesn't make any sense..... First it was spending loads on the A380 and now this...

Why is Airbus spending 8 billion dollars on attacking the 773ER for a market of roughly 150 planes sold in the last 5-6 years? Where as the 787 sold almost 400 in two?

IMO, Airbus is just not thinking right. Now, not many of us here know what the A350 will be like... so I will save my really harsh criticism till July... But Airbus needs to figure this one out... but IMO, they need to look at the 767, A300,10, A332 sized replacement first and foremost.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
slz396
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:43 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 31):
the bigger the 787, the more efficient

More efficient than what? Than smaller 787 versions? I'd hope so; this is a given fact for most planes.
However, are you still so sure a double stretched 787, called -11 (if ever launched) would still be more efficient than an all new A350-1000 designed especially for this market segment?

And how about pax comfort then? I'd love to see how Mr Baseler would suddenly have to talk up a plane with a much narrower cabin as its competitor, after having been so bullish about just how uncomfortable the A340 is compared to the 777....

The more on the new A350 vs 787 confrontation becomes clear, the more it looks like B and A will simply swap their dominant positions in the 2 wide body market segments: B taking the lower segment from A and their A330, A taking over the upper segment from B and their 777.... Maybe even the PR talk will have to be taken over in some form?
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:43 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
The title reflects the most vivid wish of the thread starter, hence his slanted interpretation of what the article says.

Once again you choose to shoot the messenger, how sad you are.

The title was taken directly from the article. The very last line reads: Boeing looks set to steal a march on its rival over the next six-eight years. Sorry, I had to shorten it a bit for this thread.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
Since credible rumours and even public comments from Airbus executives are hinting quite strongly this 'IF' may be understood as a 'WHEN', the regained lead of Boeing as announced by BoomBoom seems to be rather short lived then..

Talk about a 'vivid wish'. Do you think Airbus might actually get it right on the fifth try?

Quote:
To close the gap with Boeing, Airbus will pour $580 million into research over the next few years. "Their lead will not be for long," says Airbus' Humbert. But Airbus can't get an all-composite plane into service before 2012, four years after the 787. Even then, most industry experts say it's unlikely the Airbus plane would be significantly better than the 787. "It's four years too late with a me-too airplane," crows Randy Baseler, Boeing's vice-president for marketing.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine..._innovation+%2B+design_top+stories

[Edited 2006-05-23 20:58:58]
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ebbuk
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:46 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 33):

Why is Airbus spending 8 billion dollars on attacking the 773ER for a market of roughly 150 planes sold in the last 5-6 years? Where as the 787 sold almost 400 in two?

Just like wasting money I guess. Clueless manufacturer

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 33):
IMO, Airbus is just not thinking right. Now, not many of us here know what the A350 will be like... so I will save my really harsh criticism till July...

Really whether or not the data shows the a350 will be a better plane?
 
deltadc9
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:47 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 34):
More efficient than what? Than smaller 787 versions?

A-380, 772, A-340, A-330, 767, A-300, and until we know better the A-350

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 34):
The more on the new A350 vs 787 confrontation becomes clear, the more it looks like B and A will simply swap their dominant positions in the 2 wide body market segments: B taking the lower segment from A and their A330, A taking over the upper segment from B and their 777...

You have zero evidence to back up that claim.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
boeingbus
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:52 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 36):
Clueless manufacturer

No, it's clueless management at the helm. I'm sorry you dont see that.

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 36):

Really whether or not the data shows the a350 will be a better plane?

Likewise for you - Airbus can do no wrong in your book.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
slz396
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:58 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 35):
Do you think Airbus might actually get it right on the fifth try?

Out of personal interest, and I have to admit also because you call me 'a sad' figure (for which I should in fact ask for disciplinary steps as it is a personal insult against me, something I have always refrained from):

Can you sum up the 5 different versions of the A350 you are always referring to? Because so far, nobody here has been able to, but you seem to be extremely well-informed...

Thank you in advance.
 
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glideslope
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 3:58 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
I have the feeling after Farnborough people might have a different view.

Unfortunately for Airbus, "Feelings" do not fill the Order Book.  Sad
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
PlevTLS
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:05 am

Orderbooks

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 40):
Unfortunately for Airbus, "Feelings" do not fill the Order Book.

Order books look pretty full from where I am?!
 
ebbuk
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:10 am

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 40):
Unfortunately for Airbus, "Feelings" do not fill the Order Book. Sad

Oh they will, what the airlines are feeling is key, They like what the A350 will become, which will fill up the order book.

So save your wisdom on Airbus till a little later when you can post it at will, if in fact, it will be at all relevant then.
 
Halibut
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:10 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Thread starter):
Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

I am curious to see how this will effect this years Farnborough Air Show ?
Boeing 2 Top Airbus Sales @ Farnborough Air Show? (by Halibut May 23 2006 in Civil Aviation)

Hmmm

 scratchchin 

Halibut
6 million Jews were slaughtered-Do you see Jews flying planes into buildings in Germany to kill 1000s of innocent, NO !
 
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:18 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 31):
The 777 will hit 1000 just like every other Boeing widebody, even if the last ones are for frieght and military only.

While that's possible and even probable, what was Boeing's expectations with regards to total number of projected unit sales? (Keep in mind those projections are updated annually.) The bottom line is the 777 is currently a huge revenue generator for Boeing. They may have made recent projections expecting a certain amount of unit sales in order to maintain revenue levels. If Airbus spooks potential 777 customers with an A350MkV that will kill the 777, those revenue projections evaporate. Boeing has to make up the shortfall somewhere else; otherwise, its margins and stock price takes a hit.
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
WAH64D
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:35 am

Well well, isn't that great news for Boeing. When will this 6-8 years begin? Will it be when Boeing can produce a worthy competitor to the A320? Maybe it'll be when the B748 actually generates more than a passing interest in passenger airlines?

Get a grip, that was a ridiculous statement to make.

Boeing flag wavers seem to be betting the farm on the B787 getting certified without any problems. In an aircraft that is pretty much in unknown territory, that is a MAJOR gamble. Military aircraft aside, neither Boeing nor Airbus have any experience in creating aircraft that rely so heavily on composite materials.

A few cases of significant, non-visible damage (I pray that I'm wrong) and the whole house of cards will come tumbling down.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
Several airlines have recently dropped new A346s in favour of the 773 for a fuel delta of roughly 10%...

Is this true? I know EK has decided against taking more A346s (in favor of additional A380 frames), but I don't recall any other cancellations of A346 orders - especially in favor of the 773ER, as such a thing would probably have been shouted from the rooftops by some of our more ardent Boeing supporters.  Wink

And even if this is true and A346 operators are scrapping the plane in favor of the 773ER, not all carriers are in that position now. New planes cost a great deal of money, be they a 787, an A350, a 773ER, or an A380. While they all offer tangible efficiency gains over older or smaller existing lines, depending on how long it takes to get a return on that investment, it may be awhile before they can justify the capital.

All that being said, however, the 773ER is indeed enjoying strongish sales thanks to it's greater efficiency, so I do agree with you that a more efficient A350-1000 would probably do well against the 773ER. However, it would probably also end the A340 program, since the A350 would replace the A342, A343 and A346 and Airbus would either modify it to meet the A345's role or forgo the model and let the 772LR serve the small number of ULR frames needed.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
Indeed, the 787 is a plane aimed at 2 very different markets which is the basis of its success as well as it's weakness at the same time, because it ultimately is a compromise design in some perspectives.

I see it more as three markets, personnaly, but those markets are all natural progressions of each other and compliment each other:

  • High-Density/Short-Range (787-3)
  • Medium-Density/Medium-to-Long Range (787-8)
  • Medium-to-High Density/Medium-to-Long Range (787-9/787-10)

The 787-3 is looking more and more like a niche aircraft, built to address the domestic Japanese market. However, this plane might also find a home in the domestic Indian and Chinese markets, since it offers capacity, frequency, and efficiency. No Airbus product can match the 787-3 for such a mission profile, and as much as people like to believe a 800-seat A380-800 is the answer, that is a tremendous amount of unnecessary mass to carry around and while I am sure Airbus can try and make an A388SR or A388D like Boeing did with the various 747 models, just as the 773A knocked them out, I believe the 787-3 would successfully blunt an A388SR/A388D. Especially if Boeing can make a rough-airfield version to service rural areas no large widebody could.

As to compromising, Boeing has noted they are extending the 787-9 wing some two meters because doing so, while more expensive to design and manufacture, makes the plane more aerodynamically (and therefore, financially) efficient then sticking with the shorter 787-8 wing. Chances are they will do the same for the 787-10 to make it more effective/efficient.

Quote:
When the decision to counter the 787 was made, Airbus...started looking for we(a)knesses in the 787 and must surely have detected the ambiguity in the 787.

What ambiguity is that? That the family can serve from 200-400 people flying anywhere from 1500nm to 8500nm?

Quote:
As (the A350MkIV) was only a heavily improved derivate of the A330 and the 787 happens to be designed primarily for the low end segment, it couldn't make a dent in the 787, so as NAV20 rightfully says it seems Airbus have changed plan now...

I agree the A350MkI-MkIV have essentially been an A330NG, and yes it's firm sales are less then one-third that of the 787s and it's sales and commitments are less then half that of the 787, but Airbus had yet to complete firming their design (so many customers were waiting) and they were just about to reap whatever benefit they could get from being able to offer a plane for sale before the 787 to all the airlines who wanted delivery before 2009.

Yet now Airbus has thrown that "window of opportunity" out the window, if you will excuse the double-pun. Instead of being able to offer planes for some two years while Boeing couldn't, they now give Boeing two to three years of additional freedom to secure orders and produce planes, and that assumes the program executes perfectly. The 787-8/787-9/787-10 will all be available 12-24 months (if not more) before the equivalent A350-800/A350-900 model. And the A350-1000 will be fighting improvements to the 777-300ER as Boeing will not stand-still and let that line be killed, even if they are limited in their response with a derivative just as Airbus was with the A350MkI-MkIV. And if all hope does look lost for the 777-300ER, Boeing has a possible 787-11 and Y3 to fight back with.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
Since the 787 is optimized more for the low end, it will have a hard time fighting an all new A350mkV specifically made for this segment.

True, mainly because Boeing had the 777-300ER (and 747-8) to take care of that line, so they didn't need to make the 787 bigger then the -9 (at first).

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
I have often wondered: does Airbus actually need to offer something in (the 753/767/A330) segment?

I would like to believe they do. As much as folks like to laugh at the 767-400ER, it did keep two Boeing customers flying Boeing planes, and one of those customers is now a 787 customer (CO) and the other (DL) will be, as well, if they make it.

If Airbus abandons the small-to-midsize narrowbody market to Boeing, that means current Airbus customers may have no choice but to move to Boeing to fill those missions. And if they buy Boeing for those missions, they may buy Boeing for other missions (Y1/Y3).
 
deltadc9
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:41 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 44):
If Airbus spooks potential 777 customers with an A350MkV that will kill the 777

That is the only thing in your post I doubt, some will jump, most will not. Y3's design parameters and timing are now being determined partly by Airbus, and that is a risk they are being forced to take by Boeing.

The 787-10, and possibly the 787-11 will be a very hard act to match, much less exceed in any significant way. These planes will kill the 777 before Airbus will have a chance to and these planes are what should be the target of Airbus and this discussion of what the 350 is REALLY up against.

The 777 line will be almost 20 years old when the 350 is introduced, and will be around for quite a while afterward with backlog and new orders that will become less frequent, but remain.

The 777 and 747 are so far into cash cow, Boeing will not have any problem milking the 777 and 747 until Y3 is ready for offer. While they do that, the 737RS will take root and threaten Airbus bread and butter 320 after the 787 killed their only other cash cow, the 330.

At the same time, the new 350 looks to beat the 340 and the 380 with regards to efficiency, so now all their wide body eggs are in one basket. What about the 330 and its market?

Airbus should have highly refined the 330 AND offered an all new 350 to replace the 340 and take on the 777 instead of the doing the 380 in my opinion. The 380 could have waited until Airbus had the high volume products under control.

Instead, Boeing has the fastest selling widebody jet in history, and Airbus is in analysis paralysis after realising their mistake.

Right now, Boeing looks to be in the better position.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:50 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 45):
Boeing flag wavers seem to be betting the farm on the B787 getting certified without any problems. In an aircraft that is pretty much in unknown territory, that is a MAJOR gamble. Military aircraft aside, neither Boeing nor Airbus have any experience in creating aircraft that rely so heavily on composite materials.

A few cases of significant, non-visible damage (I pray that I'm wrong) and the whole house of cards will come tumbling down.

I like to believe that Boeing engineers do not think "ramp rash" is something that happens to baggage handlers when they wear cotton instead of wool on hot, humid days. Or that they expect the 787 will be protected by magic spells preventing anything from getting within ten meters of it.

It's not that difficult to manufacture a CFRP panel and run a baggage cart into it. Or take some loading stairs on a rail and bang it into the door frame thousands of times back-to-back. Boeing has probably identified hundreds of potential issues we haven't and has either addressed them or is working on doing so.

Airbus supporters seem to believe that modern Finite Element Analysis routines are so perfect that Airbus' tweaking of them would instantly and painlessly give them back the ~2% they needed to pass the wing-break test. Is it not then reasonable to believe that FEA will help Boeing's engineers either meet their targets or get so close that any short-falls will be correctable without major re-engineering?

If GLARE is such hot-stuff when it comes to fatigue crack resistance and effective at stopping crack propogation, and CFRP looks to be as good or better, then why do people believe 787's will shatter in mid-flight like Comet I's while the A380 will be able to weather anything nature throws at it?

 Confused
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Boeing Set To Lead Airbus For 6-8 Years

Wed May 24, 2006 4:56 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 48):
If GLARE is such hot-stuff when it comes to fatigue crack resistance and effective at stopping crack propogation, and CFRP looks to be as good or better, then why do people believe 787's will shatter in mid-flight like Comet I's while the A380 will be able to weather anything nature throws at it?

While I dont think anyone thinks that, GLARE and CFRP are two very different things.

GLARE is GLAss REinforced Fibre Metal laminate - layers of metal interspersed with glass fibre and epoxy. The metal adds greater resistance to delamination or propagation of cracks.

CFRP is fully a composite material, it contains no metal layers.

Both are safe enough, but both are very different.

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