drinkstrolley
Posts: 484
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:50 pm

Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 4:52 pm

 
scoliodon
Posts: 212
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:15 pm

RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 5:08 pm

Yeah...Airbus got caught on the wrong foot with the A350. But this is just part of the cycle. I am sure Airbus will be back with its own winner sometime in the future.

As of now though, the 787 rules ( Don't like the look of it   )

[Edited 2006-05-23 10:09:30]
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Thorben
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 5:22 pm

Can't find anything new in the article. Airbus will make a decision that will be announced at Farnborough, whether to renew the A350 or not. Apparantly a lot of airlines (along with spotters) want a plane that is more different from the A330. Some at Airbus seem to think the same way, so a new design wouldn't hurt.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
Beaucaire
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 5:29 pm

Nothing particularly new -just another Airbus-bashing contest starting on a.net with the usual arguments.
Yessssss -the 787 stole the momentum from Airbus -who got cought cold with the A350 re-design and delays on the A380 - but wht are the options for the airlines ?
It is unlikely that all of a sudden airline-managers divorce from Toulouse and become re-enforcers of a Boeing monopoly.They will have to live with delays and will mange to find solutions acceptable for their balance-sheets ,network-planning and customer-satisfaction.
If Airbus starts delivering the new-new A350 in 2012 it would mean a 2 years delay to the previous plans.Since slots for the 787 are full until that date,airlines will complain,wait and re-consider previous threats to turn a cold shoulder to the froggies.
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superhub
Posts: 398
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 6:47 pm

There will always be a time when one manufacturer wins for a period and then another manufacturer wins at another period. Airbus won for a few years, Boeing will win for another few years...and the balance will keep on tipping.

It happens most of the time and in many cases. For the English..think about the time when Man United pretty much dominated English football in the 90s, and now it's Chelsea's turn (arguably)..but certainly Man U has lost that dominance.
 
kappel
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 7:10 pm

I hope they do the redesign, that way tackling two problems, the difference between the current a350 and teh 787, and a viable competitor to the 77W, which the a346 unfortunately (i love that plane) is not, seeing last year sales.
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Lumberton
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 7:14 pm

Quoting NumberTwelve (Reply 4):
Imagine there would only be one strong manufacturer. What would happen?

Well, for starters all those aircraft stored in the desert would suddenly be worth a lot more....  Wink
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
EI321
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 8:00 pm

Quoting Superhub (Reply 5):
There will always be a time when one manufacturer wins for a period and then another manufacturer wins at another period. Airbus won for a few years, Boeing will win for another few years...and the balance will keep on tipping.

My feelings exactly. in the late 90s airbus went infront because Boeings product line was getting wrincles. The 767 was no match for the A332, The 777 was about even with the A340/A333, The 744 was starting to loose orders, the 717 was doing poorly, A320 and 737 sales were about even.

Now the same has happened to airbus. The A330 is still popular but has lost some sales to the 787. The A350 has yet to really take shape. The A380 has yet to prove itself in service. The A340s 'effeciency deficiency' has resulted in orders just tricling in. The A320 still has the sales edge over the 737. The A300 is a dead duck and a cargo replacement in the form of the A332 has yet to appear on the horizon. Add to these the inconsistancy on the A350 & the delays with the introduction of the A380 and we find an Airbus with a seriously wounded reputation.

My prediction is that Boeing will again find itself in the position that airbus is in now in about 3 years (2009). The 737 will be outdated and its replacement will be at least 4 years away. If, as is expected, airbus goes with the new w/b fuselage, the 787, although still a great seller, will have met its match and the A350-1000 would have a severe affect on 773ER sales. In fact the entire 777 line could be in jepardy in a few years. Y3 would still be at least a number of years away. The 748 - its yet to be seen how it will sell, and the A380 will have come of age.

[Edited 2006-05-23 13:25:47]
 
art
Posts: 2665
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 8:21 pm

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 3):
It is unlikely that all of a sudden airline-managers divorce from Toulouse and become re-enforcers of a Boeing monopoly.They will have to live with delays and will mange to find solutions acceptable for their balance-sheets ,network-planning and customer-satisfaction.

If I ever asked this much of my customers, I would not expect them to come back to me for further business if they could possibly avoid it.
 
wannabe
Posts: 652
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 9:02 pm

What are airlines looking for in a new fuselage design for the A350? More size? Less weight? Or do they just want a different look, which from my perspective, is nice but is not a real business driver.

Most people (aside from us whackos on this forum) do not choose an airline or and aircraft on looks. Most people don't even know what kind of plane they are on, unless they happen to look at the emergency card in the seat pocket, which we all know rarely happens. So if someone can tell me what changes are being looked at which will have an effect on the financial bottom line, I would appreciate it.
 
EI321
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 9:11 pm

Quoting Wannabe (Reply 9):
So if someone can tell me what changes are being looked at which will have an effect on the financial bottom line, I would appreciate it.

The extra width would allow 9 abreast in the enlarged A350, at a seat width equivilant to 8 abreast in the 787 which would obviously have a positive affect on CASMs. The wings would now be all composite, further reducing weight. The -1000 model would replace the A346, with obvious cost savings for airlines since it would have lower CASMs than even the 773.
 
kappel
Posts: 1836
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:48 pm

RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 9:49 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 10):
The wings would now be all composite

isn't that already the case with the current incarnation of the a350?
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DAYflyer
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RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 9:56 pm

As a Boeing shareholder, I say a Boeing monopoly wouldn't be good news for anybody, so the 10 to 1 margin of dominance mentioned in the article is just about right...  bigthumbsup 
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deltadc9
Posts: 2787
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: Turbulent Outlook For Airbus

Tue May 23, 2006 9:57 pm

Quoting Scoliodon (Reply 1):
But this is just part of the cycle.



Quoting Superhub (Reply 4):
There will always be a time when one manufacturer wins for a period and then another manufacturer wins at another period. Airbus won for a few years, Boeing will win for another few years...and the balance will keep on tipping.

There is on basis in reality to come to that conclusion. There is no magic force that somehow maintains parity. One company completely pulling away from the other is just as likely, history shows us this much more than a parity situation.

Wishful thinking aside, it is pretty unpredictable, because all you can judge from is a very short window of time, so predictions of parity or monopoly are not much more reliable than the local weather forecast.

Wasn't Boeing considered dead just a 2 years ago?

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 6):
Quoting NumberTwelve (Reply 4):
Imagine there would only be one strong manufacturer. What would happen?

Another player would emerge. Boeing or Airbus cannot produce every airliner needed during peak periods. They might maintain a monopoly for a short while, but there are too many players on the sidelines with more than enough capability to enter the market should Boeing or Airbus disappear tomorrow, especially during a peak when Boeing or Airbus cannot meet everyone's needs.

Lockheed, BAE, and many others, are capable of building large airliners. Mergers would probably take place, and the purchase of assets too and you would have a new player in just a few years.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny

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