rj777
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After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 4:11 am

I know the A318 is still there, but will Boeing sit idly by and let them dominate the 100 seat market?
 
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N328KF
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 4:17 am

Well, Boeing does have the 737-600. Neither it or the A318 have sold particularly well. Long-term, the Y1 is the answer here.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
scintx
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 4:23 am

We need more RJ's! and ones that can fly 7000nm....sorry for that. I'm in deep depression over the end of the 717. I don't work in the industry and take my statement with a grain of salt. I appears the EMB 170-190 will fill that gap. I would doubt Boeing would enter that market? The again who knows what's up their sleeve. I had the joy of several 717 flights and it ranks as one of my favorite planes. I fly almost every week and I'm sick of RJ's and that appears the way of the future.
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quickmover
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 4:24 am

Maybe it's time Boeing gets into the large RJ business (ERJ190 type).
 
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scbriml
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 4:52 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 1):
Long-term, the Y1 is the answer here.

Nothing I've seen on Y1 gives any indication that it will play in the 100-seat area. The most commonly suggested sizes for Y1 are 130, 150 and 180 seats (which is where the vast bulk of A32x and 737 sales are).
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
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litz
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 5:10 am

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 3):
Maybe it's time Boeing gets into the large RJ business (ERJ190 type).

The truth of the matter is, with the 737-700 on the small end of the mainline jets (nobody seems to want to deal with a 736, or an A318), the ERJ190 and CRJ900 are going to basically own the 90-100 seat market for quite some time to come.

Remember, Y1 is a long ways off ... for Boeing to recapture this market, they're going to end up basically giving it up 'til the Y1 flies.

At that point, of course, a lot of the current existing fleet of RJs will be getting long in the tooth, and Boeing may have a nice market to sell into.

- litz
 
srbmod
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 5:17 am

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 3):
Maybe it's time Boeing gets into the large RJ business (ERJ190 type).

They are involved in the Russian Regional Jet program with Sukhoi.....
 
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scbriml
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 5:17 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 4):
(which is where the vast bulk of A32x and 737 sales are).

Researching on my own post further shows how right Boeing would be to concentrate on the 130-180+ seat range.

Of all the 737NG sales, the -600 (72), -900 (55) and -900ER (30) account for a paltry total of 157.  Wow!

As at the end of April, the A318 is just about on a par with the -600 with 80 sales, while the much-maligned A321 does a lot better with 545 sales.

Just as the vast bulk of 737NG orders go to the -700 and -800, for Airbus the A319 and A320 take the lion's share.

In summary, I think neither manufacturer will try to shrink their new narrowbody types down to 100 seats. I expect the smallest model to be 120-130 seats, growing at the top end to 180-200.

I believe there will be a capacity gap between the largest narrowbody and the smallest 787 or A350. The fact is, while there are a lot of 757s and A310s to replace out there, sales of planes of that size have dried up in recent years. Airlines will either replace with smaller or larger planes.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
Devilfish
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 5:24 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 1):
Well, Boeing does have the 737-600. Neither it or the A318 have sold particularly well. Long-term, the Y1 is the answer here.

And there's no indication that A and B will rework those two models to have lighter competitors to Embraer's 190/195 in the short-term.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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N328KF
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 5:25 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 4):
Nothing I've seen on Y1 gives any indication that it will play in the 100-seat area. The most commonly suggested sizes for Y1 are 130, 150 and 180 seats (which is where the vast bulk of A32x and 737 sales are).

I don't think many of us have seen much on the Y1. My point is mainly that if Boeing takes on the 717/A318/736 segment, it will be with some Y1 variant.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 7):
Of all the 737NG sales, the -600 (72), -900 (55) and -900ER (30) account for a paltry total of 157.  

As at the end of April, the A318 is just about on a par with the -600 with 80 sales, while the much-maligned A321 does a lot better with 545 sales.

The -900/-900ER doesn't have a lot of sales in many cases because candidate operators already operate the 757-200, which frankly is a more flexible aircraft. The -900ER resolves some of those differences, but it's too late now in most cases. Those 757-200 customers will likely move straight to Y1/NSR.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
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scbriml
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 5:39 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 9):
My point is mainly that if Boeing takes on the 717/A318/736 segment, it will be with some Y1 variant.

It kind of depends what you mean exactly by a Y1 variant.

If you mean a smaller model of Y1, with possibly a much lighter wing, undercarriage and engines, then possibly. Personally, I don't see it happening. I don't think the returns will justify the investment over and above that of the larger models.

If you mean that Boeing will offer a range of smaller, lighter planes in the 50/80/100 seat range, based on Y1 technology, then that is an altogether different story. Personally, I don't see any evidence that either Airbus or Boeing want to compete in that arena.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
7e72004
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 5:39 am

Maybe Boeing will come up with some version of the 737RS that touches on the "100 seat" plane.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
Rheinbote
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 6:23 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 9):
I don't think many of us have seen much on the Y1. My point is mainly that if Boeing takes on the 717/A318/736 segment, it will be with some Y1 variant.

Rumour has it that there's a Y0.5
 
dutchjet
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 6:35 am

There are so many issues here, but to highlight:

1. Both the 736 and A318 have the same handicap......they are each the smallest members of their respective families and therefore are expensive to operate on a per seat basis. Both are optimized for long thin routes, which most airlines simply are not flying, especially in the big US market: with airlines focused on mega hubs, frequency and connections, routes like Savannah-Los Angeles, Hartford-Seattle or New Orleans-Portland are simply not priorities....and for financial reasons, airlines are not taking the risk. Thus, the sales of the 736 and A318 have been limited.

2. As for the 739/739ER, we probably will see some sales of these types in the future, especially the 739ER which is not yet in revenue service. While the 739ER is not a direct replacment for the 752, it can handle most 752 missions and this type will gain in popularity. The base 739 was a mistake for Boeing....the simple strech of the 738 which traded seats for range did not work out very well......and sales were modest.

3. The big issue here is regional jets (the 35-50 passenger variety) and the small jets (the 70-100 seat variety).....these types have taken over the market previously dominated by the DC9 and 732/735. In some cases its a frequency issue (its better to offer 5 CRJs per day on a route than 2 732s) but in most cases its a cost issue: regional jets are flown by associate airlines with much lower cost structures.....and the same is true in some cases for the new generation of small jets. Its become more cost effecient for airlines to let associate carriers fly any and every route or segment where a 150 pax aircraft cannot be flown.....thus, the 717 program stalled, the A318 and 736 have had little interest, and the successors to both the 737NG and A318 will likely not offer any variant with less than 130-135 seats.


As for the 717 - it was a hell of a good little airplane......perfect for short haul routes everywhere, but it was the wrong plane at the wrong time. But for the Mainline vs Regional operations, Boeing would have sold hundreds of the type, but that was not the case.
 
KarlB737
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 6:56 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
As for the 717 - it was a hell of a good little airplane......perfect for short haul routes everywhere, but it was the wrong plane at the wrong time.

Then why has it been so good for one of the most successful low-fare carriers today? And I might add exceeded fuel efficiency estimates.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 6:59 am

Seems like Boeing is talking up the 100 seat market lately...

Randy sez: "I think eventually there will be a keen market for 100-seat airplanes."

http://www.boeing.com/randy/archives/2006/05/california_drea.html

The other Randy sez: "Our product strategy is focused on the 100- to 450-seat market"

http://www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=13294

[Edited 2006-05-26 00:19:14]

[Edited 2006-05-26 00:20:40]
 
Devilfish
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 8:08 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 15):
"I think eventually there will be a keen market for 100-seat airplanes."



Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 15):
"Our product strategy is focused on the 100- to 450-seat market"

We couldn't read too much into those two statements. "Eventually" and "100-450" are both very vague indicators for a 100-seater, especially in the near term. Unless they are very adept at hiding their hand - but should they?
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
11Bravo
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 8:22 am

The scalability of composite construction may allow Airbus and Boeing to offer something in the B736/A318 size, or smaller, without the "legacy" weight penalty from the larger models that we see today. Boeing has done this with the B787-3, reducing the weight in comparison to the B787-8 by thinning the composite structure to reflect the lower structural stress.
WhaleJets Rule!
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 5:52 pm

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 11):
Maybe Boeing will come up with some version of the 737RS that touches on the "100 seat" plane.

Imagine the point to point posibility of a 100 seater that can go coast to coast....

Quoting N328KF (Reply 9):
Those 757-200 customers will likely move straight to Y1/NSR.

I'm sure a few carriers would love to see a 160-180 seater that can do 5,000-6,000 miles range economically from a 7,200' runway. Talk about being able to cherry pick international routes....
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 7:54 pm

Here's the answer to the 717 . . .




View Large View Medium
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Photo © M-A Veillard

FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
Birdwatching
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 8:26 pm

Quoting Scintx (Reply 2):
We need more RJ's!



Quoting Scintx (Reply 2):
I'm sick of RJ's

 Confused

Soren  santahat 
All the things you probably hate about travelling are warm reminders that I'm home
 
scoljet
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Fri May 26, 2006 11:19 pm

I know we are all sick of RJ's but remember not too long ago when we were "sick" of turboprops? I think Boeing pulled the plug too soon on the 717 and they did not market it at all in fear that it would cannibalize an already weak 736 market. It truly is a great airplane that can be used on many routes including those currently served by RJ's. Hopefully the RJ manufactureres will focus on interior enhancements in the coming years as RJ routes seem to be getting longer and more frequent than they were even 5 years ago. But believe me, ICT to DFW is much nicer in a jungle jet vs. Saab 340 or EMB 120!! RJ's kinda suck but they beat the hell out of the droning turboprop.
 
AeroVodochody
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Sat May 27, 2006 12:43 am

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 6):
They are involved in the Russian Regional Jet program with Sukhoi.....

Though that probably won't sell too well in North America  Sad

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 3):
Maybe it's time Boeing gets into the large RJ business (ERJ190 type).

I agree, though the EMB-190 is no RJ.

But as someone already said... the A318 isn't overly popular, neither is the 736. I can't wait 'till the Y1 Big grin

Aero
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ABQopsHP
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Sat May 27, 2006 3:57 am

As a person of 6ft height I can hardly take the 30 mnt flight from IAH to CRP, let alone a long range flight on an RJ. Give me a A318 or 737-600 any
day!
A line is evidence that other people exist.
 
robsawatsky
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Sat May 27, 2006 4:26 am

Quoting AeroVodochody (Reply 22):
I agree, though the EMB-190 is no RJ.

The industry seems to think it is.
 
Carpethead
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Sat May 27, 2006 8:56 am

Quoting Scintx (Reply 2):
I'm sick of RJ's



Quoting ABQopsHP (Reply 23):
As a person of 6ft height I can hardly take the 30 mnt flight from IAH to CRP, let alone a long range flight on an RJ. Give me a A318 or 737-600 any

For those complaining of small planes, come to Japan. There's plenty of widebody flights on one/two hour flights. Anybody will be hard pressed to find a t-prop or RJ flight in Japan. There's nothing to change this in the next few years.
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Sat May 27, 2006 9:46 am

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 14):
Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 13):
As for the 717 - it was a hell of a good little airplane......perfect for short haul routes everywhere, but it was the wrong plane at the wrong time.

Then why has it been so good for one of the most successful low-fare carriers today? And I might add exceeded fuel efficiency estimates.

9

Then why did not that airline order more and keep the line going?

Quoting Scoljet (Reply 21):
I know we are all sick of RJ's but remember not too long ago when we were "sick" of turboprops? I think Boeing pulled the plug too soon on the 717 and they did not market it at all in fear that it would cannibalize an already weak 736 market. It truly is a great airplane that can be used on many routes including those currently served by RJ's

In the end airlines did not want what the 717 was selling. Marketing? Maybe, but the airlines are smart enough to buy whatever they think will make them a buck. Dutchjet is right and is now on my RU list.
 
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ODwyerPW
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Sun May 28, 2006 3:19 am

ANCFlyer,
I agree. The 190/195 is the 711/736/318 answer. RRJ? No threat. With the cycles regionals do in this country, Russian Aviation just doesn't have the clout (that's a dangerous, unsubstantiated opinion held by me I realize, so flame away).

Although the CRJ900X could be an interesting aircraft from a pure cost of acquisition and operation standpoint. Sure it won't be the best performer or the most comfortable. However, it could prove superior with regards to operational profitability for airlines.
learning never stops.
 
Glareskin
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Sun May 28, 2006 5:17 am

Quoting ABQopsHP (Reply 23):
As a person of 6ft height I can hardly take the 30 mnt flight from IAH to CRP, let alone a long range flight on an RJ. Give me a A318 or 737-600 any
day!

I suspect you are flying the Canadair jets from CO. Try an EMB 170 / 190 and it will be a different story.
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
dutchjet
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Sun May 28, 2006 5:33 am

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 28):

I suspect you are flying the Canadair jets from CO. Try an EMB 170 / 190 and it will be a different story.

CO would be an ERJ......but thats not the point, the CRJ/ERJ are simply not at comfortable as the good old 737s and DC9s that they have replaced in many cases; and, the interior of niether regional jet gives a pax the "illusion of space" offered by the older airplanes....and the 717.

The E170/E190 do have a much more "mainline" airliner feel.....but they are not replacing smaller regional jets just yet on most routes.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Mon May 29, 2006 9:04 pm

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 18):
I'm sure a few carriers would love to see a 160-180 seater that can do 5,000-6,000 miles range economically from a 7,200' runway. Talk about being able to cherry pick international routes....

What carriers would that be?
 
Glareskin
Posts: 1001
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:35 pm

RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Mon May 29, 2006 11:40 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 29):
CO would be an ERJ

I stand corrected. But still, I think the E170 / 190's have a much roomier interior.
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
Oryx
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Tue May 30, 2006 12:31 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 17):
The scalability of composite construction

I fail to understand why complex, non-isotroph materials should scale more easily than metals? The necessary design effort is the same and telling a CNC machine to produce thinner structures is as easy as telling that the machine which is laying fibres into a mold.
 
mrocktor
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Tue May 30, 2006 4:43 am

Quoting Oryx (Reply 32):
I fail to understand why complex, non-isotroph materials should scale more easily than metals?

The way I have seen this explained is that for a given fuselage barrel several layers of material are applied. For a longer plane more layers can be used and for the shrink less layers, thus scaling the structure while using the same molds, machinery and process.

Metal airframes cannot be scaled like that. For one thing, typical skin thickness in the smaller metal aircraft already is greater than what would be required simply for structural integrity - it's just not practical to work with thinner sheets. Also, changing the thickness of metal frames means different tooling - a huge cost.

mrocktor
 
Rheinbote
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RE: After The 717.......What's Next?

Tue May 30, 2006 5:11 am

Quoting Oryx (Reply 32):
The necessary design effort is the same and telling a CNC machine to produce thinner [metal] structures is the same...

Minor nitpick: Metal fuselage skin panels are stretch-formed and chem-milled. No CNC machining involved  Smile

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