rjpieces
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Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 5:05 am

Just wondering why B6 decided to only operate JFK-BOS with the 190s instead of JFK-IAD? Are there plans to start a similiar service to IAD in the future?
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 5:22 am

I certainly think this would be a great route for B6. JFK-BOS is doing terrifically so I see no reason for JFK-IAD to do any worse.

I'd expect for this route to already be in the makings.

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dutchjet
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 6:28 am

The arguement against the JFK-IAD route is that both JFK and IAD are NOT the airports preferred by most pax, especially business pax .......the question is whether this is a valid statement. Not many (including myself) thought that JetBlue would have success on the JFK-BOS route thinking that most pax would want to fly in and out of close-in LGA, but JetBlue has found its niche and does OK with JFK-BOS - maybe its the lower fares, maybe the flight appeals to residents of Queens, Brooklyn, Long Island for whom JFK is more convenient, maybe pax prefer JetBlue.

Could JetBLue repeat their success with JFK-IAD.....maybe but probably not, while JetBlue has proven that it can make shorthaul out of JFK work, IAD is a difficult proposition for short haul flights in the DC area.

I Air used IAD as a hub and flew JFK-IAD......does anyone know their O&D numbers on that route? My guess is that the numbers were not great and that JetBlue has better opportunities that the JFK-IAD route.
 
jetblueatjfk
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 6:32 am

But NY-IAD is much more saturated with carriers. This route will come on soon but not too soon.

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FA4B6
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 7:57 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 2):
I Air used IAD as a hub and flew JFK-IAD......does anyone know their O&D numbers on that route? My guess is that the numbers were not great and that JetBlue has better opportunities that the JFK-IAD route.

True, but eventually they switched to two IAD-LGA flights on an A319. Im not an advocate of JFK-IAD, I think B6 should apply for DCA slots because I think JFK-DCA on B6 would be very succesful.
"Leap! And the net will appear."
 
bigdrewfl
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 8:01 am

Actually I was just in the last "Pocket Session" and David pretty much said that its comming very soon!......He said that JFK's T6 just didn't have enough gates for the flights but the additional gates at T5 are going to open up June 1st.......so its just a matter of time.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 8:23 am

Quoting Bigdrewfl (Reply 5):
David pretty much said that its comming very soon!......

I'm not surprised. B6 managed to pull high-frequency JFK-BOS and medium-frequency BOS-IAD off, so it just makes sense for JFK-IAD to be pulled off with just as much success. I think 7x on the E190s would be successful, with one less flight on the weekends. Fares from $55-$150 o/w would be good enough to make this flight profitable, IMO.

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STT757
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 8:30 am

Quoting JetBlueAtJFK (Reply 3):
But NY-IAD is much more saturated with carriers

NYC-Washington is one route where Amtrak is competitive with the Shuttles, also driving depending on when you go is rather quick.

I live about 35 minutes South of Manhattan in Central NJ and I drove on a Sunday morning from my house to the Air and Space Museum at Dulles in 2 hours.
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Jerseyguy
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 8:48 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 7):
NYC-Washington is one route where Amtrak is competitive with the Shuttles, also driving depending on when you go is rather quick.

I live about 35 minutes South of Manhattan in Central NJ and I drove on a Sunday morning from my house to the Air and Space Museum at Dulles in 2 hours.

Most people don't drive 108MPH (Edison, NJ to Dulles is 217 miles). Its 3 hours IF you don't get caught in any traffic.
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WMUPilot
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 9:34 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 2):
The arguement against the JFK-IAD route is that both JFK and IAD are NOT the airports preferred by most pax, especially business pax .......the question is whether this is a valid statement. Not many (including myself) thought that JetBlue would have success on the JFK-BOS route thinking that most pax would want to fly in and out of close-in LGA, but JetBlue has found its niche and does OK with JFK-BOS - maybe its the lower fares, maybe the flight appeals

We do OK on that route? The 190s are always full, 10 flights a day all going out with 100 customers. The route is preforming so well that the 320s have had to be substituted at the peak travel times because the 190s don't have the capacity to meet the demand. Not to mention these are 100 revenue paying customers, not company deadheads or nonrev traffic.
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rjpieces
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 9:57 am

Quoting Wmupilot (Reply 9):
We do OK on that route? The 190s are always full, 10 flights a day all going out with 100 customers. The route is preforming so well that the 320s have had to be substituted at the peak travel times because the 190s don't have the capacity to meet the demand. Not to mention these are 100 revenue paying customers, not company deadheads or nonrev traffic.

On $40 fares, of course B6 will be filling the seats...Profitability is a different matter though.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
Rottamo
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 10:12 am

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 10):
On $40 fares, of course B6 will be filling the seats.

40/187 miles=$0.21 per mile and I took quick look at JetBlues web page and cheapest fare I found was $50 -> $0.27 per mile.

How much yield should be in that short route to be profitable?

Rottamo
 
JetBlueAUS
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 10:13 am

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 10):
On $40 fares, of course B6 will be filling the seats...Profitability is a different matter though.

Actually if you book 7-14 days ahead, JFK-BOS fares are around $50-60. Their last minute fares are about $105-125. It all depends what time of day you get your flight. If JetBlue wasn't profitable on this route, then probably one or two of their flights would have ended, and they would have raised fares.
Not all of us can be heroes, some of us can only stand on the sidewalk and clap as they go by.
 
Rottamo
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 10:24 am

I did quick search in internet and found following data about Southwest's
Dallas-Oklaholma city route (181 mi).
Load factor is very low 50-60% and yield is about $0.35 so prasm is about 0.17-0.20 and I guess that Southwest is making money in that route. So Jetblues profitability depends on load factors. if they are very high then it is quite possible that they are profitable.

Rottamo
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 10:33 am

The lowest JFK-BOS fare is $50, not $40. However, this is with an advanced purchase. The lowest walk-up fare is $70, though most fares are usually in the $90-$145 range. I can only assume that this route is performing nicely for B6 based on really nice loads as well as decent yields.

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STT757
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 10:44 am

Quoting JerseyGuy (Reply 8):
Most people don't drive 108MPH (Edison, NJ to Dulles is 217 miles). Its 3 hours IF you don't get caught in any traffic.

I drive fast, coming back from the Pearl Jam show at the Tweeter Center in Camden last night I made it from the Venue to my home in Western Monmouth County in 30 minutes, Forget the Turnpike, I was averaging about 90 on 295 a little slower (perhaps 80) on 195.
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Jerseyguy
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 11:01 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 15):
I drive fast, coming back from the Pearl Jam show at the Tweeter Center in Camden last night I made it from the Venue to my home in Western Monmouth County in 30 minutes, Forget the Turnpike, I was averaging about 90 on 295 a little slower (perhaps 80) on 195.

If you live in Western Monmouth County then you must drive REAL fast to make it to Manhattan in 35 minutes. 90 must be slow.

BTW how do you afford your insurance because you must get aleast 5 tickets a year, even if you have a good radar detector have to get atleast 2.
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STT757
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 11:13 am

Quoting JerseyGuy (Reply 16):
If you live in Western Monmouth County then you must drive REAL fast to make it to Manhattan in 35 minutes. 90 must be slow.

That's a Weekend drive, morning on a Workday would be anywhere between 60-90 minutes. Most of the delay being Route 9 and the traffic getting into the Holland Tunnel.

Quoting JerseyGuy (Reply 16):
BTW how do you afford your insurance because you must get aleast 5 tickets a year, even if you have a good radar detector have to get atleast 2.

I have not had a speeding ticket in 10 years (knocks on Wood), last time I got caught speeding was on route 18 doing about 85 although I pleaded guilty in exchange for them dropping the speed of the ticket which only got me two or three points.
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Rottamo
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 11:15 am

Quoting Rottamo (Reply 13):
I did quick search in internet and found following data about Southwest's

I found better information (I hope). If I use
http://www.gofox.com/flights/farewatch.php

it says that
Lowest Average Fare
Southwest Airlines
Avg One Way Fare: $82.16
Market Share: 66.87%
Route Averages
181 miles
326 daily passengers

-> yield is $0.48 and load factor has to be very low because SWA has five daily flights and there are only 326 daily passengers. -> Load factor is less than 50%(?)-> prasm 0.20-0.25.

If someone can offer load factor for the route then it is possible to calculate exact prasm.

Rottamo
 
MiCorazonAzul
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 11:32 am

I was asking myself this question the other day also. It was actually a big group discussion and we couldn't agree why! I mean, we have BOS-IAD so it would make sense to have service to JFK since it IS our biggest station. Just like it would make sense to take over Independence Air's IAD-RSW route. The only airline now on that route is US but they fly to DCA.
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Jerseyguy
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 11:34 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 17):
I have not had a speeding ticket in 10 years (knocks on Wood), last time I got caught speeding was on route 18 doing about 85 although I pleaded guilty in exchange for them dropping the speed of the ticket which only got me two or three points.

If you regularly drive 85-90, you are VERY LUCKY not to get a ticket in 10 years.
Webmaster of an unoffical TTN page see profile for details
 
rjpieces
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 11:39 am

Quoting FA4B6 (Reply 4):
I think B6 should apply for DCA slots because I think JFK-DCA on B6 would be very succesful.

B6 would be succesful on many routes, but why establish a new expensive station when they already have a growing station at IAD? DCA is pricey and tight on gate space. And it's far from certain that passengers will pay a premium to fly DCA-JFK, especially with all the competition on the DCA-LGA runs....
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
FA4B6
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 11:40 am

Quoting MiCorazonAzul (Reply 19):
I was asking myself this question the other day also. It was actually a big group discussion and we couldn't agree why! I mean, we have BOS-IAD so it would make sense to have service to JFK since it IS our biggest station. Just like it would make sense to take over Independence Air's IAD-RSW route. The only airline now on that route is US but they fly to DCA.

Maybe its a matter of space at JFK and availability of planes? I agree about IAD-RSW. I think IAD-RSW/MCO/MSY could work nicely for B6.
"Leap! And the net will appear."
 
aeroman62
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 12:31 pm

A time analysis of getting from N. VA to downtown Manhattan via a potential B6 flight on a Friday afternoon, assuming no thunderstorms, traffic issues, etc.:

Leave office/home: 1pm
Park at Dulles: 1:30pm
Get to terminal: 1:50pm
Check in: 2:10pm
Through security: 2:45pm
Flight Boards: 3:30pm
Flight Departs: 4:00pm
Flight Arrives JFK: 5:15pm

So what I see is a 4 hour and 15 minute trip, before one even ventures through to Manhattan, assuming of course that is the end destination.

I have to think that other than Eastern Long Island, getting on the train in DC, or driving, has got to be faster. When you add in air traffic issues, such as flow control, weather, etc., it gets even more competitive to stay on the ground in this market. B6 would be mad to make a major launch on the IAD/JFK route, when they are already struggling to make a buck.
 
rjpieces
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 12:36 pm

Quoting Aeroman62 (Reply 23):
B6 would be mad to make a major launch on the IAD/JFK route, when they are already struggling to make a buck.

I don't think they should have a huge JFK-IAD operation, but seeing as they have a decent operation at IAD and their main base is JFK...I think it would make sense to have some JFK-IAD service.

They won't capture the main business traffic between NY and DC (nor do they do so on JFK-BOS IMO), but they could fill it with a nice combo of leisure traffic.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 7:41 pm

Quoting Aeroman62 (Reply 23):
Leave office/home: 1pm
Park at Dulles: 1:30pm
Get to terminal: 1:50pm
Check in: 2:10pm
Through security: 2:45pm
Flight Boards: 3:30pm
Flight Departs: 4:00pm
Flight Arrives JFK: 5:15pm

I think some of these times are a bit overestimated. For example, do people really get to the gate 1hr. 15min. before the departure time? On the ROC-JFK run, most people get to the gate about 45mins. before departure. Same thing with other B6 flights I've been on (though I referred to ROC-JFK because it's the route I've flown most).

Also, I don't think it'll take 35 minutes to check-in and get through security, considering that B6 has kiosks and all. Is security at IAD all that bad? At JFK, it usually takes me 15 minutes at the most from walking in the front doors to getting through security, without luggage of course. However, I really don't think many flying on the IAD-JFK route will be checking-in luggage.

Perhaps 3hr. 30mins. is a better estimate than 4hr. 15mins? I'm not sure but that seems more likely to me.

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MAH4546
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Tue May 30, 2006 7:50 pm

Quoting Rottamo (Reply 18):

it says that
Lowest Average Fare
Southwest Airlines
Avg One Way Fare: $82.16
Market Share: 66.87%
Route Averages
181 miles
326 daily passengers

-> yield is $0.48 and load factor has to be very low because SWA has five daily flights and there are only 326 daily passengers. -> Load factor is less than 50%(?)-> prasm 0.20-0.25.

If someone can offer load factor for the route then it is possible to calculate exact prasm.

You can't judge load factor with that figure. It doesn't include transiting passengers, so someone flying OKC-DAL-HOU is a OKC-HOU passenger, and isn't counted in the 326 OKC-DAL passengers.
a.
 
B6JFKH81
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Wed May 31, 2006 3:28 am

Quoting Aeroman62 (Reply 23):
have to think that other than Eastern Long Island, getting on the train in DC, or driving, has got to be faster.

Eastern Long Islanders would probably use WN ISP-BWI.

I am nervous about the potential of ruining OTP with IAD-JFK routes, especially considering that one could literally just drive or take a train in the same amount of time. Add a T-storm in the IAD or JFK area and there are delays. Trains tend to not get stuck in holding patterns in T-storms...snow can cause problems.
"If you do not learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it"
 
UN_B732
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Wed May 31, 2006 4:15 am

O L C I (which an extereme majority of B6 pax use, even on JFK-BTV) makes that argument pretty much moot.
-A
What now?
 
freakydeaky
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Wed May 31, 2006 12:46 pm

I consider myself at bit of an expert at driving between IAD and JFK - because I do it all the time (ick, ick, ick).

I select 85 mph as much as possible and it still takes 5 hours during the day and 4:15 - 4:30 in the middle of the night. If you plan on being anywhere near the beltway between 05:30 - 10:00 am and 3:00 pm and 7:00 pm - then add another 1.5 to 2 hours.

It costs $34 roundtrip in tolls, plus $66.00 in gas. Basically $100 dollars rountrip plus drinks/snacks and coffee to keep your self awake, plus the wear and tear on your car, PLUS AAA membership in case you need help at 02:00 am, PLUS all the stress from the moron drivers that insist on driving 45 mph in the left lane and an h-bomb wouldn't get them out of that lane.

I laugh at the train - which I've taken several times. If they're even within an hour of on-time - it takes 4 legs for me to get to Union Station - and then when I get there - it's hotter than hades and miserable - not to mention all the "unmentionables" hanging out there, not to mention the restrooms... Then, you may or may not leave Penn Station with your wallet intact - been there done that.

Anyway, my point is, there is a market for IAD -JFK as far as I'm concerned. Not everyone lives in DC or close to a Metro stop to get you down to DCA or Union Station. In fact, Metro is mostly inconvenient because there are only a couple stations that allow overnight parking and that seems tenuous at best.

Additionally, I personally believe JFK is more convienent than LGA because there are several rail options. LGA is silent on this. Bus or car service only. (Granted, I don't work in Manhattan - so I'm sure most of you will disagree with me).

Compare this with flying - even if it takes 5 hours for the shebang. I can read a book, work crosswords, catch up on the newspapers, and if it was JetBlue, watch tv and listen to music, and arrive relaxed and ready to go. I can see the clear winner here for me - but maybe I'm a special case and no one has the same problems getting to NY as I do.

BuhBye.
"Finish each day and be done with it. You have done what you could."
 
Rottamo
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:44 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):
You can't judge load factor with that figure. It doesn't include transiting passengers, so someone flying OKC-DAL-HOU is a OKC-HOU passenger, and isn't counted in the 326 OKC-DAL passengers.

Yes and Thanks. I actually realized that few hours after I wrote my message.
OK. We don't know about cost side but we can do a fare comparison to similar short routes.

Data:
http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/domfares/tab6053.txt

New York, NY - Washington, DC
distance 229
average fare $146
daily passengers 4268

Boston, MA - New York, NY
distance 200
average fare $167
daily passengers 4245

These routes seem to be number ten and eleven in US when measured by daily passengers.

I guess that Delta is flying these routes LGA-DCA and LGA-BOS
My feeling is that these routes are extremely profitable for Delta.

Comparison routes:
Las Vegas, NV - Los Angeles, CA
distance 240
average fare $87
daily passengers 3834

Las Vegas, NV - San Diego, CA
distance 258
average fare $85
daily passengers 2519

Phoenix, AZ - San Diego, CA
distance 304
average fare $84
daily passengers 2372

Chicago, IL - St. Louis, MO
distance 258
average fare $95
daily passengers 1970

From these we can see that fares between Ny-Boston and Ny-Washington are very high compared to similar routes. It is absolutely sure that one day a LCC is going to start flying between NY and Washington and fares will drop and passenger numbers are going to jump.

It is very interesting to see what will happen to passenger numbers between NY and Boston because of Jetblue competition.

Rottamo
 
Rottamo
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:06 am

Actually, very good comparison is here:
http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/X-5...le_files/consumerairfarereport.htm

and this pdf file is very interesting:
http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/domfares/web053.pdf


Rottamo
 
WMUPilot
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:09 am

JFK-IAD is coming, lack of planes, lack of gates(JFK), and competition from the shuttles has prevented our entry.
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EddieDude
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RE: Why No B6 JFK-IAD Service?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:42 am

Just as a side note that you may find interesting, DL has promotonial fares between JFK and IAD at the moment. They are quite attractive.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738

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