JetBlueAUS
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JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 1:36 am

Analyst Calls Company Solid; Upgrades Stock.

JetBlue's financial status is slowly rising from the red and bouncing right back up to the black. The problems have been temporary and JetBlue needed to get them underneath its belt. I can't see Neeleman letting JetBlue fall back into the position that it was once in. The CEO is really helped put the company back on track, and JetBlue has a really strong future. They have a great product, reasonably low fares, new planes, and great workers. JetBlue faces strong competition on their routes, but it seems that despite that they are still coming out and thriving with a well deserved gold medal.

[Edited 2006-05-30 18:46:24]
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NASBWI
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 1:42 am

Coudn't get the link up, but thanks for the info!
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JetBlueAUS
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 1:47 am

There I edited it, 'http://' was in the script twice. Sorry.
Not all of us can be heroes, some of us can only stand on the sidewalk and clap as they go by.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 2:31 am

Quote:
He also cut his 2006 loss prediction to 5 cents from 10 cents per share and raised his 2007 earnings estimate to 20 cents from 10 cents per share due to a better revenue outlook.

Not bad. Not great, but its good to see the few airlines actually managed to keep in the black.

This positive report has JBLU the only rising airline stock today. Why? Oil is again spiking up (Breaking $72/bbl) with some predicting a high of $105/bbl.

Personally, I don't think it will get that high. The US can produce ethanol at an energy equivalent $75/bbl while Brazil can best $55/bbl for ethanol. I predict 20% ethanol gasoline for summer 2007.  Smile

Interesting...
Lightsaber
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richierich
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 5:43 am

Quoting JetBlueAUS (Thread starter):
I can't see Neeleman letting JetBlue fall back into the position that it was once in. The CEO is really helped put the company back on track, and JetBlue has a really strong future

While I do have a lot of respect for Neeleman, he is not solely responsible for the apparent turnaround, any more than he was responsible for JetBlue being in the position it is in. He started the company and he is the visible figurehead, but as with any company of JetBlue's size, he is not the only person with control.
None shall pass!!!!
 
slider
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 5:59 am

Quoting JetBlueAUS (Thread starter):
The problems have been temporary and JetBlue needed to get them underneath its belt.

Having a massive revenue shortfall and a questionable route structure or future plan is hardly temporary, IMO.
 
richierich
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 6:07 am

Quoting Slider (Reply 5):
Having a massive revenue shortfall and a questionable route structure or future plan is hardly temporary, IMO.

JetBlue is in a lot better shape than most of the other US airlines.... Granted, this isn't something to rest your laurels on but it is true.
None shall pass!!!!
 
redflyer
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 6:07 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 3):
Personally, I don't think it will get that high.

There have been analysis performed that show consumers and industry can absorb $70/bbl oil. Consumers and industry probably wouldn't make drastic changes to their habits until oil hits $80 - $85 bbl, at which point demand would drop precipitously along with prices. And that is probably why we won't see oil going much higher in the near term, barring unforseen circumstances (e.g., natural disaster, another Gulf war, etc.).

Quoting Richierich (Reply 4):
He started the company and he is the visible figurehead, but as with any company of JetBlue's size, he is not the only person with control.

Excellent point. And being the visionary that he was in starting B6, I think he's overstayed his time. I think he should step aside at this point -- he's contributed the most that he possibly could in the first few years. As B6 matures he should hand over the reigns to someone who will guide it as a mature company and not a start-up.
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richierich
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 6:19 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 7):
Excellent point. And being the visionary that he was in starting B6, I think he's overstayed his time. I think he should step aside at this point -- he's contributed the most that he possibly could in the first few years. As B6 matures he should hand over the reigns to someone who will guide it as a mature company and not a start-up.

I'm not sure I agree. I think it is important to have a strong figurehead and identity - Neeleman is all of that to JetBlue. He may not have the only say on how the company is run but he garners the most respect and likely will until his days as CEO are over. One bad spell should not be enough to call out the dogs.

Anyway, we can argue all night as to whether he should or should not step aside. It doesn't really matter.
None shall pass!!!!
 
redflyer
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 7:08 am

Quoting Richierich (Reply 8):
One bad spell should not be enough to call out the dogs.

Let me be clear: I wasn't implying that he should step aside because B6 hit a bump in the road. I felt he should've stepped aside long ago and right after B6 was up and running with a full head of steam. From what I've read about him, he's still pulling the levers at the airline and getting involved in a lot of minutia. Not good for a person that is a visionary and who got the company going. Those kinds of activities are best left for someone who has the background and experience running large like-organizations.

I agree that he is an important figure-head and his name is synonymous with B6. I just think he should move into another role.

Just my two-cents' worth. I'll shut up now.
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slider
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 7:09 am

Quoting Richierich (Reply 6):
JetBlue is in a lot better shape than most of the other US airlines.... Granted, this isn't something to rest your laurels on but it is true.

True from which standpoint?

They have an advantageous cost structure admittedly, which is largely driven from a young fleet, low seniority wage scale, both of which will increase.

They do not, however, have a revenue stream that is favorable, as their recent results indicate. Saturating cheap fares to an already-overloaded NYC-Florida market and redeye transcons just won't hack it in the long term.

Moreover, they don't seem to have a viable market plan outside of JFK-local O&D traffic. But that's a post for a different time altogether as it's a far more comprehensive stream of consciousness.
 
NASBWI
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 7:25 am

Quoting Slider (Reply 5):
Having a massive revenue shortfall and a questionable route structure or future plan is hardly temporary, IMO

As opposed to a 'solid' business plan (which would - in theory - point to profits) being permanent? A massive revenue shortfall could be the result of many temporary factors (new aircraft costs, weather delays/cancellations, etc), and questionable business plans are only questionable to some people; who's to say that it will or won't work. Sometimes the best-laid plans are subject to sabotage. In this industry, nothing is guaranteed, but it's worth a try to see what works in order to keep it going (questionable as it may appear).
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richierich
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Wed May 31, 2006 7:53 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 9):
I agree that he is an important figure-head and his name is synonymous with B6. I just think he should move into another role.

Fair enough response.

Quoting Slider (Reply 10):
True from which standpoint?

Honestly, I guess I meant true from my standpoint.
I think people in here make JetBlue's future out to be cloudy and murky, as if they are climbing out of a deep hole. I'm not so sure it is that grim. Problems, yes. Can they overcome them?... absolutely.

Looking at the situation at other airlines, I can think of two or three that are in precarious positions with long roads to recovery (although I think that they ultimately will). This industry is cyclical, everybody knows that. Its surviving the down cycles that's the key.
None shall pass!!!!
 
bigdrewfl
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:06 am

I'm Glad to see that for the Month of April Jetblue went from being the airline with the WORST ON-TIME performance to the TOP 5!, This is also proof that Jetblue is trying very hard to better themselves as a company.


Here is the Article from the USA Today.

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...s/2006-06-02-ontime-airlines_x.htm


Hawaiian Airlines led 20 U.S. carriers surveyed for on-time performance for the 30th straight month in April, according to a U.S. Department of Transportation report released Thursday. The department's Air Travel Consumer Report said 94.3% of Hawaiian's flights arrived on schedule, which is considered up to 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival time.

The average for the 20 airlines that provided the department with on-time statistics was 78.4%.

Comair, a subsidiary of Delta Airlines, Inc., was second with an on-schedule ratio of 85.1%, followed by Frontier Airlines (83.6), Delta Airlines (82.5), Northwest Airlines (82.1), JetBlue Airways (81.1), SkyWest Airlines (81.1), U.S. Airways (80.1), AirTrans Airways (79.7) and Southwest Airlines (79.2).

Low-cost carrier ATA Airlines had the lowest on-time arrival rate in April. More than three of out of every 10 ATA flights (34.8%) arrived 15 minutes late or more. American affiliate American Eagle had the second worst rate, with 27.8% of its flights arriving late. Continental had the third-worst mark (27.7%) late.

"It's one thing to talk about being the best, it's another thing to just do it," said Mark Dunkerley, Hawaiian's president and chief executive. "After 30 straight months on top, it's clear no airline --- both here and nationally --- is better at serving its customers."

Rival Aloha Airlines Inc. was No. 17 with a 73.2% on-time ratio.

Hawaiian has been No. 1 since November 2003 when it began reporting statistics to the government.

Hawaiian and Aloha have several advantages on their side in staying on schedule, including the fact that the vast majority of their flights are short hauls within the islands, taking about 30 minutes.

They also service the fewest number of airports among the 20 carriers surveyed and don't deal with harsh winter weather conditions like on the mainland.

Hawaiian finished second to JetBlue in fewest cancellations and best baggage handling in April.

Of the 4,016 Hawaiian flights in April, only five were canceled. The company mishandled 3.11 bags per 1,000 passengers.

Aloha had no complaints in April submitted to the department, leading the 20 carriers. Hawaiian had one complaint and was ranked fourth, based on the ratio of complaints to the number of passengers.
 
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:28 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 7):
Excellent point. And being the visionary that he was in starting B6, I think he's overstayed his time. I think he should step aside at this point -- he's contributed the most that he possibly could in the first few years. As B6 matures he should hand over the reigns to someone who will guide it as a mature company and not a start-up.

Let see you put your heart in soul into a Company and then once it is going good you step aside for the good of the Company? OK! Logic there is?
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Midway2AirTran
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Sat Jun 03, 2006 7:01 am

I wouldn't blame Neeleman on any of the temporary shortcomings. The airline is growing at rapid rates and investing heavily in new a/c and facilities, costs will catch up from time to time.

Neeleman raised more capital to start-up JetBlue than any other airline start-up till recently and from good sources. That should say enough for his experience/knowlege and business plan. Neelman is a continous innovator and I expect to see many more things to come out of B6 in the future.
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OzarkD9S
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Sat Jun 03, 2006 7:48 am

How soon before B6 runs out of capacity at JFK and BOS? LGB is full and it's doubtful FLL can handle much more. IAD is a possibility for more flights...but I for one smell a new B6 focus city in the not-too-distant future.
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ikramerica
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Sat Jun 03, 2006 7:06 pm

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 14):
Let see you put your heart in soul into a Company and then once it is going good you step aside for the good of the Company? OK! Logic there is?

People do it all the time. Some people are great company "starters" but aren't good large scale managers.
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TIA
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Sun Jun 04, 2006 12:15 am

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 16):
How soon before B6 runs out of capacity at JFK

They just got some new temporary gates until their terminal opens up. So to answer your question, they won't run out of capacity at JFK for quite some time.
 
rjpieces
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Sun Jun 04, 2006 12:15 am

I'm still not convinced that B6 made the right decision to abandon their original business model several years ago...Time will tell.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 16):
How soon before B6 runs out of capacity at JFK and BOS? LGB is full and it's doubtful FLL can handle much more. IAD is a possibility for more flights...but I for one smell a new B6 focus city in the not-too-distant future.

They still have plenty of dots to connect, especially with the 190s.
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rjpieces
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RE: JetBlue: Analyst Calls Company Solid

Sun Jun 04, 2006 12:44 am

Btw, from that Yahoo article, "We think the JetBlue franchise is a solid one but one that is experiencing growing pains," he wrote in a research note to clients.....Is there any way to get access to research notes of airline analysts? Surely some of them must be published on the Internet...Or is it truly subscription-customers only?
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"