cslusarc
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Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:33 am

We all know that soon CO will run out of widebody long-haul airplanes for intercontinental capacity growth. [They do have 2 777-200ERs and a bunch of 787-8s on order.] But they need much more capacity growth for 2008-09.

Do you think the 77W is a complementary aircraft for CO?
Do you think CO will be able to absorb the capacity generated by the 77W?
Which of CO's routes would the 77W be most suited for flying?
--cslusarc from YWG
 
EI787
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:37 am

An idea of what a 77W would look like in CO colours:

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[Edited 2006-05-31 23:37:41]
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:48 am

Both CO and DL should order the 777-300ER. I think DL will need it on their ATL or JFK to LGW, FRA and CDG routes. The 767-300ERs presently used are always packed.
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HPAEAA
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:59 am

I think CO won't order anything else for right now... they have to find what going to work for them and make them profietable... I have a feeling thats number one on their list right next to figureing out what their going to do about replacing the missing XJet Capacity... they haven't even replaced that yet...
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stirling
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:11 am

They (CO) could probably use between 8 and 12.

First of all, what routes are we talking about?

EWR-China
EWR-Japan
EWR-London
EWR-Paris
EWR-India
Houston-Hawai'i
Houston-Brazil

That is 7 routes....any other ideas?

I think United could use at least 25.

Northwest could use also 25.

Delta probably 10-15.

American about 20.

But they all need to clean their houses first.
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roseflyer
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:15 am

Quoting Stirling (Reply 4):
EWR-China
EWR-Japan
EWR-London
EWR-Paris
EWR-India
Houston-Hawai'i
Houston-Brazil

Add to that list EWR-Israel. Continental now has double daily 777 service to Tel Aviv.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
AA737-823
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:17 am

No, they don't.

Why on earth would they buy a bigger aircraft, which would only add more capacity, and further depress yields?
Continental's future fleet will, in my opinion, be built around the 787. The 777-300ER is just too big. IT's almost got the same capacity as the classic 747s... and you don't see any US airlines able to fill those, either. Except NW and UA... and both of those have tangoed with bankruptcy in recent memory.

CO doesn't need BIGGER planes, they need MORE planes.
But, clearly, they don't feel that way, otherwise they'd have more orders.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:18 am

UA and NW could definitely use them as they would cover their current 744 missions pretty well.

With the other domestic 747 operators getting rid of their frames for the 772ER, I am not sure they could justify a 773ER. A good deal of international traffic seems to be seasonal. UA, for example, flies 767s trans-Atlantic in the winter and 777s in the summer on the same routes.

But a 773ER would be the next logical step for most of them if they could justify the capital outlay.
 
Rj111
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 9:05 am

Whilst, it may already be suitable for some routes, seasonal and flutuating changes in traffic demand may mean it becomes awkward to fill at other times.

Sticking with the -2ER means you likely never have too much capacity, and can always just increase prices to cope with increased demands if necessary.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 10:16 am

CO should not order the 77W.

They SHOULD order 10 787-9s to go with their 10 787-8s, plus 10 options and 10 purchase rights for unspecified 787s.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
HPAEAA
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 10:57 am

Quoting Bomber996 (Reply 16):
Honestly I think the chances of DL ordering the 773ER are VERY slim. They're bankrupt, they only have 8 or so 772ER's, and their 772's use RR instead of GE. although I'd love to see it I highly doubt it.

Agreed plus isn't the reason that their 777 fleet is so small to begin with is because they couldn't come to terms with the pilots on the pay scale?
Why do I fly???
 
UAL747
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:32 am

CO Needs some more 772ER's, which they are getting (perhaps they need to order the LR as well). As someone said above, they need more aircraft, but not necessarily larger ones.

The best candidates for the 773ER in the US would be as follows.

1. AA (LHR, LGW, NRT)

2. UA (LHR, FRA, NRT, SYD, MEL) - replace some 744 routes

3. NW (NRT ops, AMS).

UAL
"Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy. Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy.....Okay, fine, we'll just turn 190 and Visual Our Way
 
HPAEAA
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:36 am

Quoting UAL747 (Reply 23):
1. AA (LHR, LGW, NRT)

I honestly don't know the range on the a/c but from what I hear the yeild/loads on the China route and DEL route could use the xtra seats
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nuggetsyl
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 11:58 am

it takes 18 months for boeing to build a 777. I am guessing that cal will wait for the 787.
 
supa7E7
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:52 pm

DL is really more of a big-bore airline. 773ERs would strengthen DL's overgrown domestic feeder network by putting some long distance, high capacity cherries on top of the DL network.

CO tightly targets its capacity, high yield and relatively low volume.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
stirling
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 2:25 pm

I would think Continental would have no trouble at all filling up a 77W to bilaterally constrained markets such as China, and Brazil.
India wouldn't be bad either, along with Tel Aviv.
And why couldn't it work to Paris from Newark in the high season?...or Frankfurt....or any other high-demand Euro destination.

But I see the niche primarily in Asia, where there is no debating traffic will only continue to grow.....

The 777-300ER is different from the 747 Classic in one big aspect, 2 engines versus 4. It can accomplish the same mission with half the moving parts.
Same load, same distance, lower CASM. Just because airlines have retired that part of their fleets, doesn't mean there aren't specialized situations where they need the ability to uplift a ginormous amount of people.

The 787-10 does not have this capability.
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777wt
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 2:54 pm

Co uses GE engines in their fleet so I don't see a problem for them other than the cost of the 77W.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 3:09 pm

Quoting 777WT (Reply 30):
the cost of the 77W

Bingo. 50% more than a 787-9, burning far more fuel per pax, but not 50% more capacity or 50% more cargo.

it would make more sense to buy more 788s or add 789s than for CO to add a new type to the fleet in the 77W.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 3:45 pm

Well there is that IMHO inevitable consolidation that may still be coming. Not that it changes anything drastically, but if they have that idea on the near/mid term horizon, it might be another way via route/fleet rationalization to grow without ordering more planes.

CAL+UAL
CAL+DAL

Others? Not out of the realm of possibilities, and to me it makes more sense to pick up 772ER's on the used/lease market as available and wait for the 788/789's instead of taking on yet another derivative.

You never know, though.

-Dave
-Dave
 
ANNOYEDFA
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 3:56 pm

Why does everyone think bigger is better? The 777's are being removed from most european routes and being replaced with 75's or 76's. Just because a plane is packed doesn't mean it's profitable. The 75's should be used for shorter and medium length european route's like they are and add frequencies, and the 76's go deeper into Europe while the 777's are used for ultra long haul route's. I can see a 777LR option this way the belly, front, and back can go out full. Often the back of the 777's are blocked out and weight restricted for cargo.
"TWA... One Mission, Yours."
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 4:03 pm

Quoting ANNOYEDFA (Reply 33):
Why does everyone think bigger is better?

Careful not to say that around the A380 crowd.

Actually, though, within your point, Boeing7E7 posted in another thread about a potential 6000nm (IIRC) 737RS. That would play right into your comments - why operate a 773 JFK-FRA when you can operate a 737RS BDL-HAM (or whatever)? And who wants to be left holding 20-30 773;s when that competitive wave hits?!

-Dave
-Dave
 
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LTU932
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Thu Jun 01, 2006 5:33 pm

I personally think the 772LR would make much more sense for CO than the 77W. It would be the perfect aircraft for flights to India and HKG, which are flown nonstop and probably with some weight restrictions due to the distance. 4 aircraft, two for each route, perhaps even a 5th one as a spare might do the trick. CO could also capitalise on the potential cargo market which seems to be developing in India in this way, and given the 772LR's range capabilities, they could fill up those cargo holds a lot. Any weight restrictions currently in place for those flights would be alleviated by this aircraft.
 
JakeOrion
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:01 am

The 787-10. If Boeing does go through with it, the chances of a 773ER in CO is very unlikely.
Every problem has a simple solution; finding the simple solution is the difficult problem.
 
ChiGB1973
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:02 am

Too much capacity. The 773 is not the appropriate aircraft for CO, they have what they need.

DL too, the 763 is fine, it is full. Simple supply and demand. Full flights are what is needed. DL has other options, ie upgrade to 764 or 772 and they are not. I am relatively sure DL's and CO's 764s and 772s are stretched to the limit now, but, if there was money to be made on these routes with larger aircraft, it would probably already be done? If DL or CO thinks a route needs more capacity and could make more money, they will add frequency vs capacity in the form of an aircraft larger than what they already "own."

If the plane, a 773, is good for only a few routes, it is not worth the trouble. It is not interchangeable on all like routes. If either carrier had a need and could afford at least 5+, that would make the plane more of a viable option. DL can substitute the 763 and CO can substitute the 772 fairly easily, use them on all 763 or 772 routes where as the 773 would not be as flexible for either carrier.

I still stick with my supply and demand theory as a major, and probably deciding factor.

I rambled a little, but I hope you got the gist of my opinion.

M
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:29 am

Bethune stated himself on several interviews that he didnt think CO needed anything bigger than the 767-400 outside of a very few frames. I wonder if he was wrong?
One Nation Under God
 
dutchjet
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:40 am

Its not gonna happen........the 773ER (and 772LR) are both hugely expensive aircraft that CO can not afford to acquire; CO has been very conservative with its widebody fleet due to financial reasons.....even if CO is in better shape than some of the other US legacy carriers, it has lots millions in the past years and cannot easily finance the acquisition. Boeing agreed to provide back-stop financing for the two 772ERs that are on order, and CO acquired the ex-ATA 753s through a creative deal brokered by Boeing whereby CO had no out of pocket expense or risk.

Some here are talking about 10 to 12 773ERS......does anyone realize that we are talking about over $1 billion of aircraft?

And, CO really does not need the 773ER......its a great airplane, but its too much capacity for CO's long range routes out of EWR and IAH. And, the 773ER is an awful lot of airplane for transatlantic type operations. CO is very focused on yeilds and keeping fares high, the capacity of a 773ER would kill yields on many of the CO routes to which it would be assigned.

The 772ER will be the biggest aircraft that we will see at CO for the medium-term future......same is true over at AA and DL. CO and the others will take a long hard look at the bigger and more advanced versions of the 787 in the future.
 
nwab787techops
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:54 am

There is no need in co's feet for a B777-300 a/c. CO needs more planes of the same size a/c I.E B777-200 and have more flights times on the same rout. NYCer like more nonstop flight times much more then a bigger plane. Also, when bad times come, you can fly less with the same number of a/c and not have to park them.
 
c172pic
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 6:25 am

YES YES YES!!!! If CO ordered -300s, they would have my undying respect!!! Why haven't any US airlines ordered -300s? A crying shame! At least finally I can get my -300 fix at SFO courtesy of my FAV airline, ANA!!!!

Arigato hai!

El DE
 
CALMSP
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:47 pm

i think we would love to have a few 773s.............TLV would be a great route for the airplane. Also EWR-HNL would be another.........this route is stretching its limit on the 764.

DEL I do not think would work. We have enough problems flying it with a 772, the extra payload that the 773 would bring would make it almost impossible.

Look for a 2nd DEL flight soon.................this is our most profitable route that is making money from day one!! But I think we have something else in store for our new city next year.
 
zvezda
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:08 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
CO should not order the 77W.

They SHOULD order 10 787-9s to go with their 10 787-8s, plus 10 options and 10 purchase rights for unspecified 787s.

 checkmark  The B777-300ER is too large for CO and, more important, the CASM are too high. More B787s is a much better choice.

Quoting Stirling (Reply 15):
I would think Continental would have no trouble at all filling up a 77W to bilaterally constrained markets such as China, and Brazil.

The bilateral constraints are ebbing.
 
triley1057
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:24 pm

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 28):
But I think we have something else in store for our new city next year.

Of course operated out of EWR instead of IAH, right?
 
CALMSP
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Fri Jun 02, 2006 5:29 pm

absolutely!! Who would dare think of a thing for IAH!!!
 
airmailer
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:32 am

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 10):
Quoting Bomber996 (Reply 16):
Honestly I think the chances of DL ordering the 773ER are VERY slim. They're bankrupt, they only have 8 or so 772ER's, and their 772's use RR instead of GE. although I'd love to see it I highly doubt it.quote]

[quote=777WT,reply=16]Co uses GE engines in their fleet so I don't see a problem for them other than the cost of the 77W.

Forgive my ignorance but what is the problem with the RR engines on the 777?
IIRC Modern Marvels said that the GE engine for the 777 was the most powerful commercial airline engine on the planet; but that being said, what's the problem with the RR?
 
dutchjet
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:37 am

Quoting AirMailer (Reply 32):

Forgive my ignorance but what is the problem with the RR engines on the 777?
IIRC Modern Marvels said that the GE engine for the 777 was the most powerful commercial airline engine on the planet; but that being said, what's the problem with the RR?

The Trent engine on the 772/ER is a good engine, no discussion.......but, the 772LR/773ER are offered only with the GE engine due to an exclusively agreement between Boeing and GE; GE funded part of the development costs for the 772LR/773ER and in turn it became the only engine offered on these aircraft.

Thus, if DL was to go with the 773ER (which is not happening at this moment, many seem to forget that DL is still in bankruptcy court, continues to have huge financial problems, and cannot even consider ordering billions of dollars worth of airplanes at this time).........it would have a mixed engine fleet: RR powered 772ERs and GE powered 773ERs.
 
jakob77
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:48 am

Quoting Stirling (Reply 15):
I would think Continental would have no trouble at all filling up a 77W to bilaterally constrained markets such as China, and Brazil.

CO doesn't even fly to China yet at this point when they lost out to AA, which started flying to Shanghai.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:52 am

Quoting Jakob77 (Reply 34):

CO doesn't even fly to China yet at this point when they lost out to AA, which started flying to Shanghai.

CO has daily service from EWR to PEK and HKG.......and has applied for EWR-Shanghai service for the 2007 route allocations.
 
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jedward
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:59 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 35):
CO has daily service from EWR to PEK and HKG.......and has applied for EWR-Shanghai service for the 2007 route allocations.

Speaking of that, does anyone know the timeframe for when the decision will be made on who to award the route?
As Christ died to make men holy, let men die to make us rich. --S.C.
 
airmailer
Posts: 478
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Sat Jun 03, 2006 4:13 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 33):
Thus, if DL was to go with the 773ER (which is not happening at this moment, many seem to forget that DL is still in bankruptcy court, continues to have huge financial problems, and cannot even consider ordering billions of dollars worth of airplanes at this time)

The world changes fast Dutchjet, 2 days ago DL posted an operating profit (still lost money, but not from running the airline) and got the huge concession agreement they needed from their pilots.
Aparently their next target is $400 million/year in lease savings.
I would expect for them to start turning real profits in the next month or two.

DL has $5 Billion in cash and receiveables as of last filing.

They may be in the market before you know it (although I think that they will purchase 787s not 777s).
 
dutchjet
Posts: 7714
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RE: Should CO Order The 777-300ER?

Sat Jun 03, 2006 4:31 am

Quoting AirMailer (Reply 37):

The world changes fast Dutchjet, 2 days ago DL posted an operating profit (still lost money, but not from running the airline) and got the huge concession agreement they needed from their pilots.
Aparently their next target is $400 million/year in lease savings.
I would expect for them to start turning real profits in the next month or two.

DL has $5 Billion in cash and receiveables as of last filing.

They may be in the market before you know it (although I think that they will purchase 787s not 777s).

I am aware of the points in your post, however, unless and until:

1. DL has a real profit (that is after reorg costs and bankruptcy costs) and,

2. DL can maintain a profit for an extended period, and

3. DL can exit bankruptcy, and

4. DL is convinced that its long-haul expansion is a right move (it will take a few months for DL to determine if the new transatlantic routes out of JFK and ATL are making money), and

5. DL can convince the financial markets that is has a business plan that works and can repay loans and leases,

its unlikely that DL will be placing any major new aircraft orders. And this is nothing against Delta, but it will take a period of time for them to get back on track.....an operating profit for one period is only the first step in the airline's long road back to financial health.

Both AA and CO avoided bankruptcy, but those airlines are being most conservative with new aircraft orders, UA emerged from bankruptcy and many predicted that the first thing UA would do is go airplane shopping and that has not happened, US/HP seems to have figured out a business plans that works, and aside from some second hand 752s from ATA and the controversial A350 order (which now may or may not go forward) there are no new aicraft orders there. And, NW did reconfirm their A330 order while in bankruptcy, but what choice did they really have......continued operations with the DC10s is too costly with $70/bbl oil.

Will DL purchase new aircraft in the future? I hope so......I would expect a comprehensive 787 order down the road, but until then DL will simply use their existing fleet more effectively.

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