redflyer
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747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:23 am

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/6420AP_WA_Boeing_New_747.html

Peace said soaring fuel costs have forced many airlines to take a decidedly cautious approach to updating their long-haul fleets with new double-decker four-engine planes. He also said many airlines are happy enough with their four-engine 747-400 fleets and are not in a hurry to replace them.

Airlines have more choices to make today than when the 747 was their only option for flying a lot of people on really long routes, Peace said.


Sounds plausible, but if they really believed that then I don't think they would've launched the -8.

Also, anyone know who the UFO's are for the 747-8 on Boeing's orders and deliveries site?
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zvezda
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:29 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
if they really believed that then I don't think they would've launched the -8.

Boeing have already sold nearly enough freighters to pay for the SuperJumbo program. The SuperJumbo program will certainly be profitable before long -- even if the B747-8I never sells a single copy -- which is exceedingly unlikely.
 
ikramerica
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:30 am

Well, they won't even begin building the 748i for certification nor spending large sums on specific interior features until someone orders it. And most of the structural design the work on the 748i is also used by the 748F program, so that might explain why Boeing "isn't worried."

The 748F will sell for years to come, no matter what.
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grantcv
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:44 am

Won't the real market for the B748 and the A380 only really mature in 2009-2015 when most of the current B744s reach 20-25 years? I bet when Airbus started the A380 program way back in 1994, they never imagined that the real market was 15-20 years away and that the A380 would take a dozen years to realize. That's an awfully long time to wait - and a lot can change in that time period.
 
Ken777
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:48 am

I tend to agree that airlines are not in a rush to order the 748i. Unlike the 787 there is no need to worry about available slots at this time so the airlines can take all of the time they want.

I have a feeling that a lot of airlines are also taking the BA approach - establishing important benchmarks that need to be met before making any decision on major purchases.

Consider that Boeing will probably get a very good chunk of orders from most of the current 744 operators and it's easy to see why they are not too worried about the 748i's long term potential.
 
Cure
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:13 am

Do not worry: Boeing is never worried Big grin...
They are anytime very sure of themselves, aren't they.
Very boring...but great planes MADE (in the past...)

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DAYflyer
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:37 am

Perhaps if Boeing had gone all the way and built it hyper-efficient with composite fuselage and such it would have perhaps sold better.
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zvezda
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:40 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 6):
Perhaps if Boeing had gone all the way and built it hyper-efficient with composite fuselage and such it would have perhaps sold better.

The development cost would have been about 10 times higher, so it would have needed to sell about 10 times better. Boeing made the right choice.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 6:04 am

Quote:
"Now they're looking at replacing and augmenting their 747-400 fleets with 787s, with 777s, with 747 Intercontinentals and with A380s — sizes all the way from 250 seats to 550 seats," Peace said. "That's complex analysis to try to figure out 10-15 years down the road what routes you're going to fly, what your customers are going to want, what the configuration of the airplane should be in terms of comfort."

It's important to remember that aircraft compete with each other on two levels, capacity and range. Because of it's range the 787 competes with the A380 on that level.
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zvezda
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 6:18 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 8):

It's important to remember that aircraft compete with each other on two levels, capacity and range. Because of it's range the 787 competes with the A380 on that level.

Uh, no. CASM and payload/range performance are far more important factors than capacity. Also, except in rare exceptions caused by artificial gummint interference, smaller capacity is better given the same CASM and satisfactory payload/range performance.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:59 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
CASM and payload/range performance are far more important factors than capacity...smaller capacity is better given the same CASM and satisfactory payload/range performance.

It seems that you took the point I was trying to make and restated it using jargon. Many people on this forum say Boeing has nothing to compete with the A380. My point was that the 787 can be an A380 competitor.

"Now they're looking at replacing and augmenting their 747-400 fleets with 787s, with 777s, with 747 Intercontinentals and with A380s — sizes all the way from 250 seats to 550 seats," Peace said.
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zvezda
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:07 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 10):
It seems that you took the point I was trying to make and restated it using jargon.

Sorry, then I misunderstood you.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 10):
Many people on this forum say Boeing has nothing to compete with the A380. My point was that the 787 can be an A380 competitor.

Both the B787 (especially the B787-10) and the B747-8I SuperJumbo compete with the WhaleJet in most applications. I'm confident that the "new all-new" A350 will also compete with the WhaleJet in most applications.
 
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:53 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
I'm confident that the "new all-new" A350 will also compete with the WhaleJet in most applications.

Now that would be a dramatic consequence of the new A-350. It has been reported that the 787-10 could cannibalize the 772 market. But how interesting that the new A-350 could eat into the A-380 market!
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 9:02 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
Both the B787 (especially the B787-10) and the B747-8I SuperJumbo compete with the WhaleJet in most applications. I'm confident that the "new all-new" A350 will also compete with the WhaleJet in most applications.

What about the 777--too old?
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zvezda
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 9:22 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 13):

What about the 777--too old?

Age has nothing to do with it, per se. Every B777 has higher CASM than the WhaleJet. If an airline has a route for which the demand curve is broad enough and the WhaleJet offers sufficient range, then the B777 would only make sense if the higher yield that would result from higher frequency would exceed the higher operating cost. The CASM of the WhaleJet is sufficiently better than that of the B777 that it's not clear that the yield difference would ever be high enough. The main reasons why the B777 outsells the WhaleJet are:
a) capacity (smaller is better in nearly all cases)
b) lower risk (easier to keep the load factor up)
c) higher frequency (higher yield) and
d) better range,
despite the WhaleJet's lower CASM.
 
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United_fan
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 9:37 am

I think,for most airlines,a 777-300ER can do almost anything a 748 can do.
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a380900
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:12 am

I'm not worried either!
 
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glideslope
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:34 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 7):
The development cost would have been about 10 times higher, so it would have needed to sell about 10 times better. Boeing made the right choice.

A recurring theme these days.  Smile
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art
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 3:48 pm

From the article:
"The Chicago-based plane manufacturer launched its 747-8 last November to put competitive pressure on rival Airbus SAS and its A380 superjumbo."

I don't agree. I think the 747-8 was launched because Boeing saw a big enough market for a low development cost 747ADV to make a good profit. The fact that the 747-I should gain some sales at the expense of the A380 is a bonus.

From the article:
"The company has projected it will win about 450 orders for 747-8 jets over the next 20 years - about 300 passenger planes and 150 freighters, or what it deems will be half the market for jumbo jets."

Am I mistaken or has Boeing's estimate for sales of VLA increased 20% since they decided to build the 747-8?
 
zvezda
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:17 pm

Quoting United_Fan (Reply 15):
I think,for most airlines,a 777-300ER can do almost anything a 748 can do.

The B747-8I SuperJumbo can fly every mission the B777-300ER can fly, but the SuperJumbo can carry more passengers and more freight farther while burning far less fuel per unit payload. In other words, the B747-8I is far more economical than the B777-300ER -- in rare cases where the demand curve is very broad.
 
mbj2000
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:36 pm

Zvezda, I don't want to start another discussion on the term "Whalejet", but then please don't use "Superjumbo" either. This is too confusing, you accept it or not, to most of people - even here on a.net - the Superjumbo is the A380...

Thanks!

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 22):
Quoting United_Fan (Reply 15):
I think,for most airlines,a 777-300ER can do almost anything a 748 can do.

The B747-8I SuperJumbo can fly every mission the B777-300ER can fly, but the SuperJumbo can carry more passengers and more freight farther while burning far less fuel per unit payload. In other words, the B747-8I is far more economical than the B777-300ER -- in rare cases where the demand curve is very broad.
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Joni
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:40 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):

Uh, no. CASM and payload/range performance are far more important factors than capacity. Also, except in rare exceptions caused by artificial gummint interference, smaller capacity is better given the same CASM and satisfactory payload/range performance.

That's an overly sweeping statement since it depends on the case. For many routes (especially those connecting to Asian megacities, the A380 prime market), an airline can make more profit flying the A380, compared to any planes half the size.
 
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distanthorizon
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:12 pm

Quoting A380900 (Reply 16):
I'm not worried either!

Me neither.

I actually think the entire planet is quite confortable with it. Big grin
Regards
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dennys
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:21 pm

I am not worried either . One point occured to me : why not a special 747-8 version for QANTAS just as 300 seats in 3 classes F C Y , provided with special bigger tanks , to make it possible to fly Non Stop LHR - SYD and vv .

denn
 
zvezda
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:28 pm

Quoting Joni (Reply 21):
For many routes (especially those connecting to Asian megacities, the A380 prime market), an airline can make more profit flying the A380, compared to any planes half the size.

Excluding the slot-control exception that I granted above, can you provide a single example?
 
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:41 pm

Quoting Dennys (Reply 23):
I am not worried either . One point occured to me : why not a special 747-8 version for QANTAS just as 300 seats in 3 classes F C Y , provided with special bigger tanks , to make it possible to fly Non Stop LHR - SYD and vv .

They already only have 343 seats in the 744ER. I doubt this would happen, though it's a very intriguing idea!
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
zvezda
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 9:21 pm

Quoting Dennys (Reply 23):
why not a special 747-8 version for QANTAS just as 300 seats in 3 classes F C Y , provided with special bigger tanks , to make it possible to fly Non Stop LHR - SYD and vv .

CASM would be high and would need to go out full every day with high yields. It would make more sense to build a B787-8ER with the MTOW of the B787-9 and 3 belly tanks. With 160 seats, CASM would probably be just a little bit higher than that of your 300 seat SuperJumbo, and it's a lot easier to fill 160 seats every day with high yields than to fill 300 with the same yields.
 
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 9:30 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
The B747-8I SuperJumbo can fly every mission the B777-300ER can fly, but the SuperJumbo can carry more passengers and more freight farther while burning far less fuel per unit payload. In other words, the B747-8I is far more economical than the B777-300ER

The 748 has more passenger baggage and I would not be suprised that the 773 could carry more cargo due to its length and shape.
 
keesje
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:02 pm

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...686669.story?coll=chi-business-hed


.. the 787 has gotten 59 orders this year.

Their popularity raises anew questions about the demand for jets like the 747 and the Airbus A380 that carry more than 400 passengers. Airbus has not received an order for the passenger version of the A380, the largest commercial aircraft ever built, in almost a year. ..


So lets summarize:

- the fact the 747-8 has no orders is a bad sign for Airbus
- no need to worry about no orders yet for the 747-8i
- still no further A380 orders this year, a changing paradigm

Is the US press getting a bit lazy / customer focussed on aviation?
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JAAlbert
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Fri Jun 02, 2006 11:31 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 28):
So lets summarize:

- the fact the 747-8 has no orders is a bad sign for Airbus
- no need to worry about no orders yet for the 747-8i
- still no further A380 orders this year, a changing paradigm

Is the US press getting a bit lazy / customer focussed on aviation?

That's not how I read the article. The article begins by saying that Boeing has not landed a single buyer for its passenger version of the 748 since its launch 6 months ago. The article states that Airbus also hasn't received a single order for the 380 in the past year. Both statements are factual and accurate. The analyst quoted says that high fuel prices are partly to blame for customers shying away from planes the size of the 748 and 380. The article continues by stating that Airbus is more exposed than is Boeing in this niche market because its large investment in a new aircraft. This is not a shocking statement given that in fact Airbus's investment in the 380 is above ten billion dollars as compared to Boeing's investment in the updated 748. The article quotes rosy assessments by each manufacturer of their respective aircraft. These statements are the typical sort of cheerleading by Airbus and Boeing that in all circumstances should be taken with a grain of salt.

I do agree that 787 seems to have shifted the paradigm away from the ultra-large jets (perhaps it is the "game changer" much ballyhooed by the PR department some months back?) I do not agree the article suggests that Boeing has nothing to worry about with its lack of 748 orders.
 
tockeyhockey
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:22 am

Quoting MBJ2000 (Reply 20):
Zvezda, I don't want to start another discussion on the term "Whalejet", but then please don't use "Superjumbo" either. This is too confusing, you accept it or not, to most of people - even here on a.net - the Superjumbo is the A380...

Thanks!

jumbo is a uniquely american word and i think it is best if it is held to label an american jet. jumbo was an over-sized circus elephant, so it's not like it's more "flattering" than using the term whale. let's use whalejet for the a380 and superjumbo for the 748.
 
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Revelation
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:50 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 28):
So lets summarize:

- the fact the 747-8 has no orders is a bad sign for Airbus
- no need to worry about no orders yet for the 747-8i
- still no further A380 orders this year, a changing paradigm

I'm wondering who should be more worried:
- Boeing, about the lack of sales for B747-8i/8f
- Airbus, about the lack of sales for A340-500/600

Both are incremental enhancements to successful products that do not seem to be selling well. Interestingly enough, both are four engined aircraft.
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deltadc9
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 3):
Won't the real market for the B748 and the A380 only really mature in 2009-2015 when most of the current B744s reach 20-25 years?

Which is why I think Airbus would have been wise to protect their 330/340 products and wait just a few years to do the 380.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
I'm confident that the "new all-new" A350 will also compete with the WhaleJet in most applications.

Another reason why the 350/370 should have preceded the 380. Even the numbers of the models point to that.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 13):
What about the 777--too old?

Nope, and dont assume the 370 will greatly exceed it either.

Quoting Tockeyhockey (Reply 30):
let's use whalejet for the a380 and superjumbo for the 748.

What is the problem with the term Whale? Who doesn't love Whales? We pay big bucks just to see on in real life! They are beautiful and big...oh wait a minute...
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 29):
I do agree that 787 seems to have shifted the paradigm away from the ultra-large jets

Actually, 787 is pushing the trend further. It was the 767 that started the long-range market fragmentation. 787 will do to transpacific routes what 767 did to transatlantic ones. This trend eventually will migrate to the larger 777-300ER capacity-planes. I strongly believe that Boeing will not go bigger than about 420 - 460 seats for the planned "stretch" of Yellowstone-3 (360 seat being the "base", with the "ER" model being capable of SYD-LHR with 300 seats).

[Edited 2006-06-02 18:01:13]
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ikramerica
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:20 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 27):
The 748 has more passenger baggage and I would not be suprised that the 773 could carry more cargo due to its length and shape.

Volumetrically yes. But on some routes, I think he is talking by weight.

Quoting Tockeyhockey (Reply 30):
jumbo is a uniquely american word

It's a British sland word derived from an African word (don't remember the language). It was popularized in America when Barnum bought Jumbo from the British and showed her around the USA.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
worldxplorer
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:37 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 34):
It's a British sland word derived from an African word (don't remember the language)

It is a butchered version of the Swahili word jambo which means "hello". It was the only only African word that the zoo-keepers knew.

WorldXplorer
 
astuteman
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:41 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
Boeing have already sold nearly enough freighters to pay for the SuperJumbo program. The SuperJumbo program will certainly be profitable before long -- even if the B747-8I never sells a single copy -- which is exceedingly unlikely.

A pretty impressive achievement to amortize a $4Bn development over 18 frames, I'd have to say, if true.
Break-even will be nearer 120 - 150 frames in reality.

I'd still expect it to break even before the A380, even then  Smile

Quoting MBJ2000 (Reply 20):
the Superjumbo is the A380...

Correct. This is the truth for the rest of the world outside of A-net.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 32):
What is the problem with the term Whale? Who doesn't love Whales? We pay big bucks just to see on in real life! They are beautiful and big...oh wait a minute...

You answer your own question DeltaDC9.
There is a direct correlation between the number of times particular posters on A-net use the term "Whalejet", and the level of derogation with respect to the A380 generally to be found in their postings, which directly contradicts the protestations of innocence. (I'm sure there are exceptions..... Smile)

I generally don't get involved in the discussion because AFAIK people can call it whatever they like - makes no odds to me.
If posters do want to be derogatory to the A380, though, they should feel free to do so (and obviously do), without having to hide behind some mythical respectability.


Regards
 
skymileman
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:23 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 3):
Won't the real market for the B748 and the A380 only really mature in 2009-2015 when most of the current B744s reach 20-25 years? I bet when Airbus started the A380 program way back in 1994, they never imagined that the real market was 15-20 years away and that the A380 would take a dozen years to realize. That's an awfully long time to wait - and a lot can change in that time period.

That is kind of my thought. At that point, I think both manufacturers are in for some very large orders. The 777 and A340, 787 and A350 are great, but airlines are still going to want something the size of the 748/A380 when their 744's get old. Maybe the U.S. airlines won't want them, but they are not the only airlines that need to be considered.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:32 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
A pretty impressive achievement to amortize a $4Bn development over 18 frames, I'd have to say, if true.

You seem to have latched on to this $4 billion figure based on one BusinessWeek article and treat it as gospel, while others have put the figure at $1.5 billion. Fact is, no one really knows how much the 748 will cost or what the breakeven number is.
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Johnny
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:34 am

That airplane is ten years too late.That is the answer why they do not sell the pax-version like hot-cakes.

It is like the A350 MK2, and it really should be at least MK5...

It will be a good freighter, but as i wrote a lot of times, a 777-400 would be the better choice for most of the airlines !

Johnny  Smile
 
pbottenb
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:42 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
You answer your own question DeltaDC9.
There is a direct correlation between the number of times particular posters on A-net use the term "Whalejet", and the level of derogation with respect to the A380 generally to be found in their postings, which directly contradicts the protestations of innocence. (I'm sure there are exceptions..... )

I generally don't get involved in the discussion because AFAIK people can call it whatever they like - makes no odds to me.
If posters do want to be derogatory to the A380, though, they should feel free to do so (and obviously do), without having to hide behind some mythical respectability.

I must have missed the threads on this, so please update me - Why is it derogatory to use the term Whalejet for the A380? It has been associated with positive and negative comments for this airplane since I can remember.

Jumbo Jet has been associated with the 747 since the beginning - so it follows that Superjumbo would be the logical name for a larger 747.

PB
 
deltadc9
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:49 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
You answer your own question DeltaDC9.

Of course it was a joke, but it was a very mocking one. I agree totally.

But I really do like the name Whalejet, and if some airline has the balls to paint one like an Orca I would fly on that bad boy just for the picture from the terminal.

Some of these posters here almost make me feel bad for liking the 380, and I do, because it isn't "American". I have a hard time finding anything "UnAmerican" about it. Oddly enough, I think it looks its most impressive directly from behind, which highlights the birdlike upward arch of the wings at the root.

But, what is more beautiful than a 747 taking off in the civil airliner world? I think the choice of the web designers here above proves my point. It has been and continues to be an efficient, reliable, and versatile tool for the airlines. I fail to see why so many think airlines will just toss it aside so quickly and easily, and a thread like this needs to get started.

I think is was someone form the UK during WWII that said a great plane looks like it should fly, or something to the effect that the more beautiful a plane is the better it flies. Not sure, but I think it was in reference to the Spitfire. The point is, I think a lot of people look at planes that way, like a bird.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:27 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 39):
That is the answer why they do not sell the pax-version like hot-cakes.

And why doesn't the A380 sell like hotcakes? 20 years too early, perhaps?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 39):
It is like the A350 MK2, and it really should be at least MK5...

The BIG difference is Boeing never even offered these marks to the Airlines or signed contracts and then pulled the plug on their customers.

But I think you knew that already  cheeky 
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airfrnt
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:32 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 31):
I'm wondering who should be more worried:
- Boeing, about the lack of sales for B747-8i/8f
- Airbus, about the lack of sales for A340-500/600

Or how about
- Airbus, about the lack of sales for the A380?

Take a look at the remaining bottom lines, and you will have your answer.
 
deltadc9
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:33 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 38):
Fact is, no one really knows how much the 748 will cost or what the breakeven number is.

And the same will be true for Y1 and Y3 because you cant count the Y2 R&D twice.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 39):
It will be a good freighter, but as i wrote a lot of times, a 777-400 would be the better choice for most of the airlines !

Funny how so many airlines disagree! Dont appy for that CEO job just yet!
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
astuteman
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:34 am

Quoting Pbottenb (Reply 40):
Why is it derogatory to use the term Whalejet for the A380? It has been associated with positive and negative comments for this airplane since I can remember.

I didn't actually say it was derogatory. I suggested a relationship between posters who were derogatory towards the A380, and those that use the term - a subtle difference, but a difference nonetheless.
As it matters not to me, I've made my contribution on that point - I'll make no more.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 41):
.

Thanks, once again for a considered response, DeltaDC9 (as always).

Regards
 
Johnny
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:54 am

@BoomBoom

I think the A380pax sells ! Probably not like hot-cakes, but i sells!!!  Wink

@Delta DC9

Are these airlines (which didnt want to have the 777-400) the same which do not want to have the B748I now..?
It is strange, but in the moment it looks like nobody really wants to have the B748I, in a big contrast to the B777-300ER.
So i would assume, that the airlines which are buying loads of -300ER now could also be interested in the -400X.
 
astuteman
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 4:21 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 38):
You seem to have latched on to this $4 billion figure based on one BusinessWeek article and treat it as gospel, while others have put the figure at $1.5 billion. Fact is, no one really knows how much the 748 will cost or what the breakeven number is.

However, if Airbus came up with a development of similar nature to the 747-8, I would anticipate an avalanche of posters on here who would assure me that it couldn't be done for less than $4Bn, (and with some justification IMO).

You are quite correct. With any of these programmes, the true development cost will never be known, but if you look at the shopping list of developments converting the 744 to the 748, they are not the trivial cost items some on here would like to make them. It isn't, for example, similar to the development of the 772LR from the 773ER

For the avoidance of doubt, I would still consider the expenditure of $4Bn on the develoment of the 748/748F in response to the $12Bn + A388/A388F to be an extremely cost-effective and well considered business decision by Boeing.
As I said, I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks even before the A380.
I'd be astonished if the B/E is less than 100 frames (which is still not bad BTW)...
I'll show my arse in Burton's window if it breaks even after 18 sales..  Smile.

Regards
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 4:27 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 47):
I'll show my arse in Burton's window if it breaks even after 18 sales..

Uh, no thanks...

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 47):
but if you look at the shopping list of developments converting the 744 to the 748, they are not the trivial cost items some on here would like to make them.

Wern't some of these already paid for by prior efforts to update the 747?

[Edited 2006-06-02 21:31:58]
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Stitch
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RE: 747-8: Boeing Not Worried About Lack Of Sales

Sat Jun 03, 2006 4:28 am

As Zvezda has noted, the 777-300ER does just about everything the 747-400 does and does it cheaper. So a number of airlines are replacing their oldest 747-400ERs with 777-300ERs. That they are not replacing them with A380s should be a cause for at least mild questioning for Airbus fans, since this implies traffic is holding steady on these routes, and not climbing. Or if it is climbing, frequency (takeoffs and landings) is not such an issue.

Right now, the A380 looks like a "one airport pony" since only LHR is jammed-up right now and even then, the two "home players" - BA and VS - are adding sub-747 capacity (A346 for VS and probably the 773ER for BA). FRA is getting there, but LH is also adding A346s to their ops. And airports like NRT are seeing 744s being replaced with 773s, which means slot availability and local congestion don't seem to be critical.

Again, it's early in the game. Time may yet prove the A380 the right choice if more airports reach saturation point. But many are expanding and many others are getting all new facilities, as well. And as oil rises, so do fares, which tends to depress overall traffic numbers, especially on long-haul international which does not have LCC price competition for the most part.

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