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PanAm_DC10
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Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 7:01 pm

NCA, Nippon Cargo Airlines owned by Nippon Yusen have ordered 2 more Boeing 744Fs powered by GE CF6-80C2. These could be the two UFOs booked last month on Boeings site.

By Masumi Suga
June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nippon Cargo Airlines Co., a unit of Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan's largest shipping line, said it will order two more Boeing Co.'s 747-400 freighters to expand its cargo operations as the nation's increases its airport capacity.

Nippon Cargo has signed a contract with Boeing to add the freighters, which can carry up to 120 tons, the Tokyo-based carrier said yesterday in a statement on its Web site. The order for the two planes is worth about $460 million, according to Chicago-based Boeing's list prices.


[ END - Fair use excerpt - http://www.bloomberg.com ]


GE have also confirmed the order and the following is a link with further details.

http://cincinnati.bizjournals.com/ci...ati/stories/2006/06/12/daily9.html

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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 7:27 pm

We must be getting close to the 744 line being full up to when 748 kicks-off - I wonder who'll get the last 747 "post classic"?

(741/2 - Classic, 744 - post classic and 748 - post, post classic : D)
 
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solnabo
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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 7:54 pm

Guess the 748F is more expencive than 744F? Was looking throu Boeing website but couldnt find any info....

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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 8:00 pm

 
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solnabo
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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 8:09 pm

@ Scouseflyer

Thx a million(!)

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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 8:31 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 1):
We must be getting close to the 744 line being full up to when 748 kicks-off - I wonder who'll get the last 747 "post classic"?

I thought Boeing just upped 744 production rate because of high demand and filling up of the 744 slots.
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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 8:45 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5):
I thought Boeing just upped 744 production rate because of high demand and filling up of the 744 slots.

Interesting. That I knew of only 5 744 production slots were available before transfer to the 747-8. CX were rumoured to have reserved these slot but since then Air China Cargo have announced plans to buy 2 and now NCA have ordered another 2. 1 left according to that count, CX re-iterated that they had 5 x 744BCFs on order so that could have created some confusion on the report they had reserved the slots.

Independently, I have a source which I cannot link to which states that the 744 production has been sold out and that next orders will only be for the 747-8. As I've no link, I offer that as an informed opinion.

Solnabo and Scouseflyer, note the delivery dates of the 744s, NCA needs capacity and the airplanes prior to the 747-8F EIS so they are ordering what is available to meet their needs. It is not an issue of pricing but the reason why the 744 is cheaper is that it is a fully ammortized product which has paid for itself. The 747-8F has development costs factored into the list price which would explain the price differential.

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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 10:28 pm

Here is a link to NCAs website. They intend to operate 14 747-8F by the Japanese Fiscal year 2015 so that's 6 options waiting to be exercised.

http://www.nippon-cargo.com/news/2006/0512.html

Open the PDF for the fleet plan.

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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 10:40 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 6):
Independently, I have a source which I cannot link to which states that the 744 production has been sold out and that next orders will only be for the 747-8. As I've no link, I offer that as an informed opinion.

This is getting confusing.

Boeing shows 61 unfilled orders, 19 748's and 42 744's. Now we have 2 more, for a total of 44 unfilled 744's, 63 total unfilled 747's

They have announced that the last 744 will be produced just prior to the first 748 in 2009.

They have increased the production rate to 18 per year effective when?

Depending on when exactly they start 748 production in 2009 and when they increase production, it appears that most of the slots are taken even with the 50% production increase but maybe not all.

If they start 748 production exactly 3 years from now and increase production in say 2 months, they still have maybe 9 slots left. If they start in January they still have maybe 3.

Just guessing.
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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:21 pm

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 8):
This is getting confusing.

DeltaDC9

It is not my intent to confuse you or anyone else. I have to abide by the rules of the forum, if I cannot provide a link, the best I can do is offer my opinion as I may have information that is not quoted in the public domain which under forum rules leaves me to only offer my informed opinion.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 8):
Boeing shows 61 unfilled orders, 19 748's and 42 744's. Now we have 2 more, for a total of 44 unfilled 744's, 63 total unfilled 747's

That is correct. However;

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 8):
they still have maybe 9 slots left.

That includes 4 x 744 PAX for PAL which have been deferred for several years and PAL are evaluating the A346HGW / B773ER with a stated preference for an all Airbus fleet. So take those 4 off and you have 5 744s left. Boeing may well have an advantage on the Long Haul component given they still retain the deposits from the 744 PAX order which is money that PAL can ill afford to sacrifice.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 8):
They have increased the production rate to 18 per year effective when?

That one I can't answer as I have not seen a statement from Boeing which confirms when that production rate will be increased.

What I was trying to convey is that NCA have identified themselves as having been behind the order recently placed for 2 x 744Fs with GE engines and a link to their site with their fleet plan through to 2015 which clearly states they will order 6 more 747-8F in that timeframe.

I hope that clarifies the intent of my post for you sir and I am happy to stand corrected if need be.

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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Tue Jun 13, 2006 11:34 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 9):
It is not my intent to confuse you or anyone else.

I was not referring to you or your posts, just the 747 slots in general, especially with regard to the increase in production and the announced hard cutover from 744 to 748.

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 9):
That one I can't answer as I have not seen a statement from Boeing which confirms when that production rate will be increased.

This is popping up in a lot of places...

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/272501_boeing02.html
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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Wed Jun 14, 2006 12:11 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 10):
just the 747 slots in general, especially with regard to the increase in production and the announced hard cutover from 744 to 748.

We do get an indication from the second link I provide;

The additional aircraft will be delivered in 2008 and 2009, GE Aviation said.

It's a shame they don't specify an actual date in 2009 as that would help clarify the situation for us.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 10):
This is popping up in a lot of places...

I do apologise but it is quite late here but IIRC Boeing do not actually state a specific number when they indicate an increase in production. Rather, they provide guidance. I have a link which details this if I can find it now I shall post it, if not, I ask for your patience and I shall provide it tomorrow. IMO they have learnt from past errors in times of increased demand and ramping up production, consequently they are more conservative in their delivery guidance. The more so after the 1997 737 production shutdown for 30 days.

Here are some comments from Mr McNerney and Mr Mulally which indicate that they have learnt from past errors which has made them more vigilant when in their current position of responding to an upsurge in demand;

The company surprised many industry analysts a couple of months ago when Boeing Chairman and Chief Executive W. James McNerney Jr. said about 30 jets whose delivery was delayed by a four-week Machinists strike in September would not be fully made up until after 2006.

Mulally disclosed that Boeing on three occasions this year studied whether to raise production rates faster. Had Boeing done so, he said, the company could have sold even more jetliners in 2005.

"I feel very good about our production rate increase plan," Mulally said. "It reflects all our lesson learned from the past. We have a very disciplined commitment and compliance process. ... We decided three times not to increase production rates faster. That's why we are not making up those 30 planes until we are absolutely on our way to making these rates changes, and then we will look later about going up even higher."


[END - Fair use excerpt]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/252737_mulally20.html

I will post the other link tomorrow which states that Boeing do not publish exact numbers when increasing production in conjunction with a timeframe. When pushed on the amount of sales forecast for this year every response I've seen from a Boeing executive has been the same. It is along the lines of "we target 395 deliveries and expect sales to be within that region"

Well they have done well to date by already beating that number in terms of sales. Mr Leahy at the start of the year forecast that sales for both OEMs of all models would be in the vicinity of 830 to 860 frames, a decline of 61% from 2005. It would appear that between the 2 OEMs we'll see more sales than that IMO.

Thank you for the civil conversation DeltaDC9 and I would be happy to continue the discussion tomorrow.

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RE: Nippon Cargo Order 2 More 744Fs

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:59 am

Boeing have confirmed the order as the 2 UFO booked on their site

http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2006/q2/060613b_nr.html

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