dhefty
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Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 5:11 pm

EADS stock, selling for 35 Euros earlier this year, has now plunged to 20 Euros, after announcing further delays in A380 deliveries.

EADS has now lost 40% of its market capitalization this year!

What will this mean for the BAE buyout and EADS ability to raise funds for the A350/370?

Are there possible A380 cancellations in the works?

Will heads roll in Toulouse?

Stay tuned.

[Edited 2006-06-14 10:12:37]

[Edited 2006-06-14 10:13:49]
 
n1786b
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 5:24 pm

Pass the popcorn!

- n1786b
 
Beaucaire
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 6:42 pm

http://www.boursorama.com/cours.phtml?symbole=1rPEAD

EADS have lost 27% this morning...
Please respect animals - don't eat them...
 
NAV20
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:33 pm

Down to E17.14 now, on volume of 35M. shares.

That means the price has dropped by over E10.00 today - to less thatn half their value in March (over E35.00). And 35M. shares is about 5% of the whole company, sold off in a few hours.

I'm afraid that it looks like 'The End'. If this goes on for another hour or two I would expect trading in the shares to be suspended.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Lumberton
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:37 pm

Stock markets all over the world are falling. Look at Boeing's shares; they are well off their highs. Jim Cramer (a U.S. stock celeb) has written a column about how stocks have become "commoditized". Here is the link for your reading pleasure:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/pom/...cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
art
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:45 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
EADS has now lost 40% of its market capitalization this year!

About 45% at 1138 CET. EADS capitalisation ca 14 Billion euros.
 
leelaw
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:48 pm

BAE Systems: Value Of Airbus Stake Not Hit By A380 Delay

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
June 14, 2006 6:10 a.m.

(Fair Use Exerpt)

LONDON (Dow Jones)--BAE Systems PLC said Wednesday that Airbus's delay of its A380 jumbo jet wouldn't hit the price it gets from the planned sale of its 20% stake in the business.

"We don't believe it will have any effect on the valuation of our stake because it has to be based on the medium- to long-term prospects of the overall Airbus business. The long-term prospects don't change because of the delay," said a spokeswoman for BAE Systems...

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20060614-703370.html
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
art
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:50 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 4):
Stock markets all over the world are falling.

True, but EADS has fallen 20%+ today while the CAC40 has fallen <0.1%.
 
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mariner
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:51 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 3):
I'm afraid that it looks like 'The End'.

Oh, for pity's sake, stock markets around the world have been tumbling the last two months.

Like the Dow Jones:

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom...805A6-2593-483E-AA4E-342E78656840}

"...the Dow will be at a 50% retracement of the entire October 2004-May 2006 upmove."

The DJIA is now negative for the year 2006. And Dow Jones has very little to do with EADS. Or the A380.

mariner

[Edited 2006-06-14 12:54:57]
aeternum nauta
 
gunsontheroof
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:55 pm

Quoting N1786b (Reply 1):
Pass the popcorn!

That's about all I'm willing to say at this point. Airbus is more than capable of working the magic needed to turn things around, but their problems with the A350/A380 could very well end up being disastrous. Nothing at this point in time is predictable.
 
art
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:58 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 6):
BAE Systems PLC said Wednesday that Airbus's delay of its A380 jumbo jet wouldn't hit the price it gets from the planned sale of its 20% stake in the business.

But it makes it more difficult for EADS to find a way to pay...
 
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keesje
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 8:08 pm

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
NAV20
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:31 pm

You'd be a brave man, Keesje!  Smile

They're holding above E18.00 for the moment. Remains to be seen whether that's the start of a recovery or a 'dead cat bounce'.

As I suspected, trading WAS suspended a couple of times:-

"European Aeronautic Defense & Space Co.'s shares fell 33 percent to 17 euros ($21.31) by late morning. Market operator Euronext briefly suspended trading in the shares twice in the first hour after they fell beyond the limit allowed.

The selloff came after Emirates Airlines said Wednesday that it is reconsidering its order of the double-decker A380, the world's largest passenger aircraft exacerbating an already delicate situation for EADS and its largest subsidiary.

"We have been informed by Airbus that the delivery of our A380 aircraft will be delayed by six months. Emirates now expects to receive its first A380 aircraft in October 2007, to be put into operation in January 2008. We are considering our position and will be engaging with the manufacturer over the next few weeks," said a statement from the airline, which has 45 A380 on order.

"Singapore Airlines and Qantas Airways, which also have large A380 orders, said they are seeking talks with Airbus and want compensation. Airbus' chief commercial officer, John Leahy, confirmed that the Toulouse, France-based company will incur more late delivery penalties, but declined to provide a figure. It could in theory also face order cancellations after announcing delivery delays of up to seven months, problems it blamed on production bottlenecks."


http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2074516&business=true
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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keesje
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:36 pm

So they are now 18.76

So if I sold now: 18.76-18.01=0.75*5000= $3750

I could have bought me a ticket business class to SEA for that ..

Stocks..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
terryb99
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:54 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 13):
So they are now 18.76

So if I sold now: 18.76-18.01=0.75*5000= $3750

I could have bought me a ticket business class to SEA for that ..

Sorry Keesje, you could never get past the Boeing police at SEA,  Big grin

Don't forget the broker commission and tax on profit would eat up a good piece of your 3750.  Smile
 
flyingdoctorwu
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 9:54 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 13):
So they are now 18.76

I am going to put in an order to buy now. I think long term (ie when I am ready to retire in 30 years) that Airbus will ride out this whole fiasco (similar to Boeing's manufacturing fiasco in the 90s) and have a solid return on investment.
 
Koper
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:04 pm

Quoting N1786b (Reply 1):
Pass the popcorn!

 Big grin Big grin Big grin
 
2H4
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:12 pm



So, you guys are a lot more knowledgeable than myself with regard to Airbus, EADS, and market conditions. In your opinion, how much (if any) of this stock drop can be attributed to the recent SIA order of 20 787s?




2H4


Intentionally Left Blank
 
Beaucaire
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:16 pm

The shares will go up soon once the "shock" about the announcement is over.
Stock-exchanges are extremely emotional places -worse than market-chats between old women- and bargain hunters must have bought tons of EADS shares at a deflated price.
You wonder how educated (trading-floor and banking )managers can yield to such a sudden panic ,tied to a certainly negative but not deadly announcement.
What are the options ?
Let go Airbus down the drain and establish a Boeing monopoly....??
Let's be serious -some investors are making millions today !!!!
Please respect animals - don't eat them...
 
Koper
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:20 pm

I don't think it's a problem.. even if Airbus failes.. in Europe it's always the 'state' behind.. so the citizen will pay for this..
 
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keesje
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:25 pm

Quoting 2H4 (Reply 17):
In your opinion, how much (if any) of this stock drop can be attributed to the recent SIA order of 20 787s?

I think it has more to do with the A380 delay. The stock dropped before the SQ announcement I think. Airbus offered the A330 in the past for this requirement.

Expect some more Singapore Airlines action shortly. The 777 replacement > 2010 decision is coming up, they need some interim lift capasity before 2011 and I can see them taking the opportunity "blocking " the A380 slots options 2012-2015 for airlines like QF, BA, AI and Air China by taking options / ordering additional A380s, perhaps -900s. They indicated they are satisfied with A380 test results.

Quoting FlyingDoctorWu (Reply 15):
I am going to put in an order to buy now.

I can in no way be held responsible for initiating or stimulating any financial transactions by fellow a.netters, unless you win of course  Wink
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Lokey123
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Wed Jun 14, 2006 10:53 pm

Keesje,

I'd by and hold too, this is a great time to get a good deal on EADS stock. Hopefully they a bit more of a beating before it rebounds, would be a steal.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:16 am

I'm sure glad you started this thread, not me

Anyhow here is what the WSJ is saying:

Quote:
EADS shares plummeted, with stock down as much as 34% in Paris trading due to A380 delays. EADS has lost half its market value since March. The selloff came after Emirates Airlines Wednesday said it is reconsidering its order of Airbus A380s, the world's largest passenger aircraft, exacerbating an already delicate situation for EADS and Airbus. Emirates is so far the biggest customer for the A380, with 43 planes on order.

"This is in our view very damaging both to the credibility of EADS management, and also to Airbus' reputation for program management," Goldman Sachs analyst Sash Tusa said in a note to investors, referring to the delays. "Our concern is that this could both damage Airbus' chance of a successful re-launch of the A350 aircraft."

The news is a blow to EADS Co-CEO Noel Forgeard, who in 2000 oversaw the launch of the A380 as the head of Airbus. Charles Champion is currently in charge of the program. On a conference call Wednesday with analysts, Mr. Forgeard deflected suggestions that the setbacks could cost him his job.

"We have now to find the right ways forward rather than finger pointing the responsibilities of the past," Mr. Forgeard said. "We are working on managerial measures inside Airbus."

The problems with the A380, coupled with the need for Airbus to redesign its A350 model under criticism from customers, is not only exposing execution flaws, but also strategic ones, investors said.

"EADS made a strategic error by opting for a jumbo sized jet rather than a fuel efficient model, especially if the price of oil increases further," said Matthieu Raimbault of French brokerage Viel Tradition. "It's been a while since Airbus has given ground to Boeing -- even if [Airbus] has a lot of orders for its A380, they could be canceled."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1150...479926.html?mod=home_whats_news_us

[Edited 2006-06-14 17:18:14]
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
flyingdoctorwu
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:21 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 20):
I can in no way be held responsible for initiating or stimulating any financial transactions by fellow a.netters, unless you win of course  

Don't worry I won't hold you responsible... but EADS will pull through this mess... and hopefully I can make a few bucks out of the deal.. it's not like they are Enron... (at least I hope not!)
 
airfrnt
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:30 am

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):

EADS has now lost 40% of its market capitalization this year!

What will this mean for the BAE buyout and EADS ability to raise funds for the A350/370?

Are there possible A380 cancellations in the works?

BAE is undoubtably the huge looser in Airbus's recent decline. One of my friends who works at Lockheed Martin actually speculated that Airbus may deliberatly be supressing their stock to cut their cash payment to BAE. If the terms of the arbitration don't come out well for BAE, I would expect to see a lawsuit from BAE alleging the same.

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 6):
"We don't believe it will have any effect on the valuation of our stake because it has to be based on the medium- to long-term prospects of the overall Airbus business. The long-term prospects don't change because of the delay," said a spokeswoman for BAE Systems...

As much as BAE wants to hold that position, the incredibly weak position of EADS stock right now means that:

a) It is going to be hard for Airbus to capitalize any cash buyout, simply because they have to sell more stock cheaper to make money. Low prices off of a high indicate a lack of investor appetite for EADS.

b) BAE's assets are in the form of a percentage of the company. EADS is basically being forced into a stock buy back. EADS will argue that it only makes sense to pay the actual stock rate for the purchase.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 3):

That means the price has dropped by over E10.00 today - to less thatn half their value in March (over E35.00). And 35M. shares is about 5% of the whole company, sold off in a few hours.

I'm afraid that it looks like 'The End'. If this goes on for another hour or two I
would expect trading in the shares to be suspended.

NAV20, this might be a little too inflamitory. Airbus is doing quite well with their narrowbody market. Remember when Lockheed was forced out of the business with the L-1011, it didn't have any other markets besides the L-1011 to save it's commercial aviation business.

Chances are that EADS is a bit undercapitalized at this point. However, the Clearstream scandal is continuing to widen, and another EADS executive was named. Until EADS get's off the front page in France, and back on the order sheets their stock is going to underperform.


Quoting NAV20 (Reply 12):

The selloff came after Emirates Airlines said Wednesday that it is reconsidering its order of the double-decker A380, the world's largest passenger aircraft exacerbating an already delicate situation for EADS and its largest subsidiary.

"We have been informed by Airbus that the delivery of our A380 aircraft will be delayed by six months. Emirates now expects to receive its first A380 aircraft in October 2007, to be put into operation in January 2008. We are considering our position and will be engaging with the manufacturer over the next few weeks," said a statement from the airline, which has 45 A380 on order.

That's a very liberal reading of EK's comments. Unless Boeing goes out there and offers 80 747-8i's at cost and EK has a no penalty way of withdrawing from the contract, EK would never consider such a move.

That being said, if it ever did happen, the absolutly huge pullback in orders would be similar to what would have happened to the 747 if Pan-Am and TWA pulled out.

Quoting 2H4 (Reply 17):


So, you guys are a lot more knowledgeable than myself with regard to Airbus, EADS, and market conditions. In your opinion, how much (if any) of this stock drop can be attributed to the recent SIA order of 20 787s?

I frankly think that in light of the ILFC comments, the market has already priced in the lack of performance of the A350. In fact I think you can make a good argument that the Market has basically written off the entire wide body arm of Airbus, and you basically can buy Airbus for just the narrowbody market. May not be a bad deal.
 
wingman
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:33 am

If I had any money to spare I would've bought today. The long term prospects are still very sound and 18 months from now many will moan at the lost opportunity of not buying at E18. In all seriousness Keesje, if you have E5000 to spare put it on EADS, you'll double in 12-18 months. Backed by four extremely wealthy governments and with continental industrial interests at stake, on top of the fact that Airbus planes are well-built and of very high quality, this is one company that will not die anytime soon.

Beware Boeing gloaters, of which I am occasionally one, our own new jet hasn't even flown yet and the first major assembly piece has bubbles in it. I sometimes wonder if Boeing and Airbus aren't being pushed by insane competitive pressure into making promises they'll find very hard to keep.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:35 am

Quoting FlyingDoctorWu (Reply 15):
I am going to put in an order to buy now. I think long term (ie when I am ready to retire in 30 years) that Airbus will ride out this whole fiasco (similar to Boeing's manufacturing fiasco in the 90s) and have a solid return on investment.

I think EADS stock has great long-term potential, but I'm not so sure how to buy from the United States....any ideas?
"Up the Irons!"
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:38 am

I think right now the big thing is what will Airbus unveil at the Farnborough Air Show in regards to the revised A350 and finalized A370 designs. If it looks attractive, then EADS shares will recover, especially since a properly-designed A350/A370 could be the planes the replace many older 777's, displace the A340, and possibly even be a 747 replacement.
 
katekebo
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:51 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 24):
BAE is undoubtably the huge looser in Airbus's recent decline.

Not necessarily. The amount that EADS has to pay will be determined by a third party arbitrator. BAE made their put option announcement before EADS shares plunged, and my understanding is that the pay off is based on long terms expectation of the stock value, not the instantaneous share price. If EADS wants to take advantage of the current share price to minimize BAE payment, things will end up in court as BAE will acuse EADS of mismanagement of Airbus. Keep in mind that BAE has no decision power over Airbus, so they can blame EADS for all current Airbus issues.
 
NAV20
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:57 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 26):
think EADS stock has great long-term potential, but I'm not so sure how to buy from the United States....any ideas?

Jacobin777, ring any stockbroker - there's a direct link now between the New York Exchange and Paris.

But my advice would be to wait a while. I'm no expert, but I've seen 'crashes' and 'meltdowns' before. They're never over inside one day. There will be a lot of people who own EADS shares who don't even know about today's events - they'll just be getting home from work at this time. They may not even find out until they read tomorrow's morning paper. After that, it's anybody's guess which way they'll jump.

Another factor is the uncertainty about the A380 - particularly the possibility of cancellations. I've said often enough on here that the A380 should have been cancelled years ago - and indeed, even at this stage, I reckon that Airbus would have better prospects if they cancelled it tomorrow. But it's very much a 'talisman' to the general public, who don't know even as much as we do about aviation. Any order cancellations could really put the share price in a bad way.

The third thing is that the 'fundamentals' are wrong. Airbus isn't just going through a bad patch - they have serious problems in the area of company structure, product range, and above all 'credibility.'

Advice only - but I'd wait a while if i were you. Or anyone else.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
jacobin777
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:10 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 29):
Jacobin777, ring any stockbroker - there's a direct link now between the New York Exchange and Paris.

thanks for the info... Smile

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 29):
But my advice would be to wait a while. I'm no expert, but I've seen 'crashes' and 'meltdowns' before. They're never over inside one day. There will be a lot of people who own EADS shares who don't even know about today's events - they'll just be getting home from work at this time. They may not even find out until they read tomorrow's morning paper. After that, it's anybody's guess which way they'll jump.

Agree..I would only take a very small "initial" position, and not even average down,but wait until some of the "technicals" of the stock improve....

there is a heck of a lot of "resistance" now...and there will be waves of selling everytime EADS stock goes up.....

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 29):
Another factor is the uncertainty about the A380 - particularly the possibility of cancellations. I've said often enough on here that the A380 should have been cancelled years ago - and indeed, even at this stage, I reckon that Airbus would have better prospects if they cancelled it tomorrow. But it's very much a 'talisman' to the general public, who don't know even as much as we do about aviation. Any order cancellations could really put the share price in a bad way.

look out NAV20....your going to be getting a  flamed  for this one  duck 

I just think it never should have been built

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 29):

Advice only - but I'd wait a while if i were you. Or anyone else.

merci beaucoup..... Smile
"Up the Irons!"
 
halls120
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:13 am

Quoting Wingman (Reply 25):
If I had any money to spare I would've bought today. The long term prospects are still very sound and 18 months from now many will moan at the lost opportunity of not buying at E18. In all seriousness Keesje, if you have E5000 to spare put it on EADS, you'll double in 12-18 months. Backed by four extremely wealthy governments and with continental industrial interests at stake, on top of the fact that Airbus planes are well-built and of very high quality, this is one company that will not die anytime soon.

Same here. EADS is a sound investment, in the long term.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
khobar
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:27 am

Excuse me for bringing this up, but with all the gloom and doom some are predicting for Airbus, have these same people forgotten that Airbus isn't like a regular company? Where oh where are the shouts about Airbus getting free money whenever and in whatever quantity they desire? In all the discussion about the current woes, suddenly Airbus has gone from the world's most taxpayer subsidized company to death's door.

Consider this - the A380 and A350 problems are actually good news for Airbus - after all they don't have to repay loans on "failed" products.

 Big grin  Wow!  sarcastic  (and any other smilie necessary)

Let's see what they unveil at Farnborough, eh?
 
jacobin777
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:43 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 32):
Excuse me for bringing this up, but with all the gloom and doom some are predicting for Airbus, have these same people forgotten that Airbus isn't like a regular company?

that's why I want to buy EADS stock, I know the company won't go under... Wink
"Up the Irons!"
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:43 am

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
Are there possible A380 cancellations in the works?

Why don't you ring the airlines' senior management? They are currently the only ones who could probably tell you.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 3):
I'm afraid that it looks like 'The End'.

followed by...

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 29):
I'm no expert

 scratchchin 

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 29):
even at this stage, I reckon that Airbus would have better prospects if they cancelled it tomorrow.

 Yeah sure

Quoting Khobar (Reply 32):
In all the discussion about the current woes, suddenly Airbus has gone from the world's most taxpayer subsidized company to death's door.

Sorry, but talking about "death's door" is not just amateurish, but completely ludicrous.  Yeah sure


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
SeeTheWorld
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:45 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 29):
But my advice would be to wait a while. I'm no expert, but I've seen 'crashes' and 'meltdowns' before. They're never over inside one day. There will be a lot of people who own EADS shares who don't even know about today's events - they'll just be getting home from work at this time. They may not even find out until they read tomorrow's morning paper. After that, it's anybody's guess which way they'll jump.

Another factor is the uncertainty about the A380 - particularly the possibility of cancellations. I've said often enough on here that the A380 should have been cancelled years ago - and indeed, even at this stage, I reckon that Airbus would have better prospects if they cancelled it tomorrow. But it's very much a 'talisman' to the general public, who don't know even as much as we do about aviation. Any order cancellations could really put the share price in a bad way.

The third thing is that the 'fundamentals' are wrong. Airbus isn't just going through a bad patch - they have serious problems in the area of company structure, product range, and above all 'credibility.'

Advice only - but I'd wait a while if i were you. Or anyone else.

He's exactly right. This wasn't just one event in time, and now it is over. It's unclear if there is going to be additional issues, including customer actions. On top of that, Airbus has a credibility problem right now, so any other bad news (A380-related or not) coming from Airbus will be magnified, rightly or wrongly. Buying the stock now would be an extremely risky gamble.
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
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RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:46 am

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 31):
Same here. EADS is a sound investment, in the long term.

Maybe so, but Boeing stock is up over 4 points today, one of the largest single-day gains in its recent history.

What an amazing turnabout for these two giants!
 
IFEMaster
Posts: 4164
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:17 am

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:48 am

So I guess now would be a good time buy some EADS stock.
Delivering Anecdotes of Dubious Relevance Since 1978
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23465
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 1:50 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 4):
Stock markets all over the world are falling. Look at Boeing's shares; they are well off their highs.

Well it is up $4.27 as of 12:23PM EDT to $81.25. The 52-week high is $89.58.
 
socal
Posts: 464
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2005 9:20 pm

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 2:22 am

Can I get a large popcorn and a large soda.....please
I Love HNL.............
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 2:44 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 28):

Not necessarily. The amount that EADS has to pay will be determined by a third party arbitrator. BAE made their put option announcement before EADS shares plunged, and my understanding is that the pay off is based on long terms expectation of the stock value, not the instantaneous share price. If EADS wants to take advantage of the current share price to minimize BAE payment, things will end up in court as BAE will acuse EADS of mismanagement of Airbus. Keep in mind that BAE has no decision power over Airbus, so they can blame EADS for all current Airbus issues.

The underlying reality (as in can not be changed short of a massive government recapitilization) is that EADS can not simply afford to pay off the entire BAE stake at premium margins without selling more stock to capatilize. They could try to do it out of operations flow, but that would cripple most if not all of their ongoing projects, or reduce their safety blanket so significantly as to leave the comany is significant fiscal peril.

I frankly don't see a situation now where BAE gets what they want.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 29):

Another factor is the uncertainty about the A380 - particularly the possibility of cancellations. I've said often enough on here that the A380 should have been cancelled years ago - and indeed, even at this stage, I reckon that Airbus would have better prospects if they cancelled it tomorrow. But it's very much a 'talisman' to the general public, who don't know even as much as we do about aviation. Any order cancellations could really put the share price in a bad way.

I have been a outspoken critic of the A380 (as well as the corporate governance of Airbus) but I think what you propose is a step to far. I do think that eventually Airbus will break even on this program. I don't believe that they will hit cost of capital or turn the full ROI unless something dramatically changes world wide. Hey, if it does, then the people at Airbus will be visionary. If it doesn't, it will be yet another example of the reason there are only two large market plane vendors left.

Airbus made the decision to build the A3XX back in the late 90's. The statistics at the time made it a little questionable to build this plane with the market trends the way they were. But Airbus's decision was a lot saner then Boeing's decision for the Sonic cruiser. The difference is the Sonic Cruiser was late enough in the game that Boeing could kill it and take only a minimal loss. Airbus is completly committed to the A380 now.

Airbus has a lot hinging on a plane that has roughly the same number of orders as the 717. But they also have a very health wide body market that Boeing is not yet as competitive as they could be.
 
sulman
Posts: 1963
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2004 5:09 am

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 2:54 am

All part of the risk when introducing ground-breaking technology. Short memories, people. The 747 almost ruined Boeing, and was extremely problematic for Pan-Am in the first few months. Shit happens.
It takes a big man to admit they are wrong, and I am not a big man.
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:00 am

Quoting Wingman (Reply 25):
Beware Boeing gloaters, of which I am occasionally one, our own new jet hasn't even flown yet and the first major assembly piece has bubbles in it.

Um no. It was the last piece they made that had bubbles. They had made many pieces before using previous tooling that didn't have bubbles, but the new tooling that was intended to be further optimized didn't perform.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:24 pm

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:37 am

I'm a bit surprised that this wasn't anticipated at all by the market. Was there any insider activity? Maybe the Lagedere and DaimlerChrysler sales (or sales proposals) were an indication that something was up.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
leelaw
Posts: 4520
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 4:13 pm

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:47 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 43):
'm a bit surprised that this wasn't anticipated at all by the market. Was there any insider activity? Maybe the Lagedere and DaimlerChrysler sales (or sales proposals) were an indication that something was up.

IIRC, Forgeard and his immediate family have been exercising options and making substantial stock sales in recent months. NAV20 is the true maven of this information.

[Edited 2006-06-14 21:18:16]
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
legoguy
Posts: 2972
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 8:59 pm

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:52 am

As the stock prices are low at the moment...would now be a good time to buy some shares?? Surely they will pick up again with Farnborough just around the corner  Smile
Can you say 'Beer Can' without sounding like a Jamaican saying 'Bacon'?
 
art
Posts: 2696
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 4:03 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 24):
BAE is undoubtably the huge looser in Airbus's recent decline.

All I can say as a holder of BAE stock/shares is s 2letters t.

I bought the d 4letters d things in anticipation of various countries ordering the T 5letters n. Which I still think they will.

I did not expect problems with E 2letters S / A 5letters s to scr 1letter w everything up!
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 4:07 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 43):
Was there any insider activity? Maybe the Lagedere and DaimlerChrysler sales (or sales proposals) were an indication that something was up.

Like BAE deciding to jump ship what a month ago???

Pass the M&M's
 
TinkerBelle
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:46 am

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 4:10 am

Quoting Terryb99 (Reply 14):
Don't forget the broker commission and tax on profit would eat up a good piece of your 3750.

WHAT?? Commissions in this day and age are even $5 so I wouldn't worry too much about that.

Quoting Terryb99 (Reply 14):
Sorry Keesje, you could never get past the Boeing police at SEA,

He can't even fly a Boeing without setting off alarms at the door when he walks in.  biggrin 
If you are going through hell, keep going.
 
daedaeg
Posts: 627
Joined: Mon Feb 17, 2003 1:54 am

RE: Eads Stock Plunges On A380 News!

Thu Jun 15, 2006 4:19 am

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 45):
As the stock prices are low at the moment...would now be a good time to buy some shares?? Surely they will pick up again with Farnborough just around the corner

I'm thinking of doing the same. This is a good time to at least consider purchasing while it's low. Certainly there are going to be brighter days ahead for Airbus. It's simply going through a market scolding at the moment.
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