AerospaceFan
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Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:18 am

According to a news report, Australia's national carrier has been thrown into "crisis" because of the latest delay of Airbus' A380 superjumbo and a high-ranking corporate executive has been dispatched to Toulouse with orders to seek the reasons behind the postponement.

The report says that Qantas will seek major compensation from Airbus as a consequence of the delay, which is expected to postpone its introduction of the A380 by up to 14 months.

See:

http://www.couriermail.news.com.au/story/0,20797,19533655-3122,00.html

[Edited 2006-06-20 20:21:09]
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DAYflyer
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:22 am

Another added to the sad string of problems facing Airbus. ILFC snd MAS are considering cancellation of orders. Qantas would have the legal authority to do so as well I would think.

I wonder how much blood Qantas is going to want. Perhaps they will use the threat of cancellation to extract a major refund.
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:27 am

I think there would be less attention to this matter if there hadn't been such a ballyhoo created by the grand unveiling of the A380 to begin with. For example, being associated with such a uniquely prestigious project could have made it more difficult for those directly in charge of the technical aspects of a matter to tell upper management that there were the possibilities for a major delay. Thus, there is something of a "snowball" effect -- attention leads to more attention, in a strange way, until now, everyone is fascinated by what increasingly appears to be a figurate train wreck.

This is aside from the effect of such association on upper management itself.

I note that previous Airbus products never created such a sensation.

It's time for everyone to step back and to try to solve this problem rationally.

[Edited 2006-06-20 20:30:10]
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TVNWZ
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:32 am

You will see every airline that ordered the plane now act SHOCKED! at the delay. They will all go to France huffing and puffing, demanding answers.

What they are really doing is renegotiating the deal. The deal is never done until they have to pay the invoice. And if all these problems (real and imagined) can give the airlines leverage to get a million off here, a million off there, over what is contractually owed then they will huff and puff.

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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:33 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
Another added to the sad string of problems facing Airbus. ILFC snd MAS are considering cancellation of orders. Qantas would have the legal authority to do so as well I would think.

but it sounds like QF can't afford to cancel them because they need them and had planned for them more than any other carrier besides maybe EK.

Unlike SQ or LH or whoever, QF was planning on using them in a place where not just their capacity could be used, but where their PERFORMANCE was necessary (MEL to LAX).

One would imagine part of the reason QF is going to Toulouse is to make sure that part of the problem isn't performance shortfall. If it is, you can bet they will have to cancel and be the launch customer for the 748i, and now that they've waited on that already, the 748i will be a few months later EIS than when first offered last fall.

One has to wonder, too, if the rumored 748i stretch is not in direct response to customers asking Boeing to give them a plane closer to the A380 so they can cancel them and move on...

Will this also lead to QF firming up options on the 787 and leading Boeing to open the second 787 line as soon as they possibly can?
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atmx2000
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:35 am

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 3):

You will see every airline that ordered the plane now act SHOCKED! at the delay. They will all go to France huffing and puffing, demanding answers.

What they are really doing is renegotiating the deal. The deal is never done until they have to pay the invoice. And if all these problems (real and imagined) can give the airlines leverage to get a million off here, a million off there, over what is contractually owed then they will huff and puff.

Yup, lot's of drama here to get extract more concessions from Airbus.

But in the end its all going to be paid for by the taxpayers of the EU.  Wink
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:36 am

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 3):
What they are really doing is renegotiating the deal. The deal is never done until they have to pay the invoice. And if all these problems (real and imagined) can give the airlines leverage to get a million off here, a million off there, over what is contractually owed then they will huff and puff.

That's a good point.

I do know that I want to fly on an A380 one day. The aircraft is a nice idea, an amazing achievement, and perhaps the wave of the future. The only question in my mind is precisely when that future is.
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Aither
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:38 am

At least it's good to see the airlines wanting so much the A380 ASAP.
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:43 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
Unlike SQ or LH or whoever, QF was planning on using them in a place where not just their capacity could be used, but where their PERFORMANCE was necessary (MEL to LAX).

Unlike other airlines, LH needs the 380 as a cure against tight slot restriction on high density routes...



Too many of our people here see airlines like consumers. John Doe buys the special of the week at Walgreens because it is on sale. Airlines spending billions spend a little more time considering what they do.
The 380 is a new kind of animal, due to size, performance, ground handling, I am not saying it is a revolution or so, it is just significantly different from what we have seen so far.
So, are airlines now just sending their managers on a golf trip to Toulouse, and on the way back they just purchase 15 380s, because they are on sale right now?
QF needs the planes. SQ does. EK does. LH does. Otherwise they would not have committed to that investment, by making down payments, raising the $$ for the investment... They purchased the 380 because that is how they are planning to develop their fleet.

The only reason for QF to go to Toulouse is a discount. Either right now, or on a new deal. Business as usual. I am quite sure that Leahy is mentioning the new 32S concept and a possible discount while they are in Toulouse...

Reading all those 380-bashing threads, about airlines not willing to accept the delay and to bail out, that's plain ridiculous. Airlines are not in the business of instant gratification, they make long term plans.
On top of that, they are all launch customers. They new from the beginning that a delay might happen, hey are now just hoping for a quick $, either cash right away, or a good deal in the future.
Fairly unlikely that airlines are using a.net as a recruiting platform for new managers: "what? we have to wait 6 more months for the plane we plan our future with? let's get out of the deal..."
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:46 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
One has to wonder, too, if the rumored 748i stretch is not in direct response to customers asking Boeing to give them a plane closer to the A380 so they can cancel them and move on...

I would think that Boeing can come in and actually play spoiler be taking away some of the A380 orders. But Boeing would have it's work cut out for it by migrating 787 technologies and engines to the 748I as well as doing a stretch that would make the airlines feel comfortable. Perhaps if GE and RR can do engines with an increase in thrust this will give Boeing an opportunity to give airlines and higher MTOW 748I that would have tremendous economics over the A380.
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ikramerica
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:49 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 8):
Reading all those 380-bashing threads, about airlines not willing to accept the delay and to bail out, that's plain ridiculous.

Happens all the time. What's ridiculous is dismissing it.

Airlines who are having problems unrelated to the A380 now have an out. Airlines that were relying on the A380 can now look elsewhere as their delivery slots get closer and closer to the availability of the 748i, for example.

I personally think the A380 might be the next MD11, with so many problems at the start that it ruined the program for the long term. But in service, many liked their MD11s, and as a freighter it is top notch. Though the A380 won't be as valuable a freighter conversion in my estimation...
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:50 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5):
Yup, lot's of drama here to get extract more concessions from Airbus.

But in the end its all going to be paid for by the taxpayers of the EU.

I hate to do this, but you have a point.

What you're saying is that some time late next year (or maybe the year after that), I may be taking a trip to Sydney, and technically it will have been indirectly subsudized by the EU taxpayers?

 duck 

I lived in D.C. for a long time. I know that the simple fact that someone could make that statement is not going to go over well at the ballot box.
 
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 3:59 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
but it sounds like QF can't afford to cancel them because they need them and had planned for them more than any other carrier besides maybe EK.

Unlike SQ or LH or whoever, QF was planning on using them in a place where not just their capacity could be used, but where their PERFORMANCE was necessary (MEL to LAX).

Maybe ILFC could purchase some 777-LR and short-term lease them to QF?

Just a thought.
 
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:04 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 8):
Either right now, or on a new deal. Business as usual. I am quite sure that Leahy is mentioning the new 32S concept and a possible discount while they are in Toulouse...

I have a difficult time believing that Qantas will want to be on the "bleeding edge" of ANY new Airbus product offering in the future.
 
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:12 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 8):
On top of that, they are all launch customers. They new from the beginning that a delay might happen, hey are now just hoping for a quick $, either cash right away, or a good deal in the future.

Exactly, take into account launch discounts and add to that compensation for the delays. They will be fools to walk out now, my strong believe is that we would not see major cancellations on the A380.
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ikramerica
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting AirMailer (Reply 12):
Maybe ILFC could purchase some 777-LR and short-term lease them to QF?

They can't get 772LRs before QF would get their 380s.

That's the problem. QF can't get 777s, 787s or 748is before they will get 380s, but they can get them at about the same time as they would be getting most of their 380s. They could take 346HGWs I guess, but I don't think they really improve on the performance issues the 744s now face
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nudelhirsch
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:22 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):
Airlines that were relying on the A380 can now look elsewhere as their delivery slots get closer and closer to the availability of the 748i, for example.

Baloney! The only airlines that really come closer to the EIS of the 748 are the ones that receive the first deliveries. They would be stupid to cancel now.

The other airlines were planning on later slots and don't tell me they didn't have a clue about the 748 before it's official launch. They knew for a while that Boeing is working on something. Yet they bought the 380 and if the 748 was that much better for them than the 380, they would have switched a while ago, I could imagine Boeing is giving some nice discounts to finally get a launch customer for the 748. They would have switched by now, if they didn't, that's a statement for the 380.
BTW, neither the 787 nor the 748 are granted to be on time, we'll see how that turns out. Hopefully well, yet a lot can happen. Why risk another delay, just to satisfy some a.net people who want to see Airbus going down?
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:29 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 16):
BTW, neither the 787 nor the 748 are granted to be on time, we'll see how that turns out. Hopefully well, yet a lot can happen. Why risk another delay, just to satisfy some a.net people who want to see Airbus going down?

Well, for that matter, we don't know that any "A370" would be on time, either, do we? And I don't need to point out that the A380 hasn't turned out to be. So this statement is a wash.

[Edited 2006-06-20 21:54:49]
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:38 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 17):
Well, for that matter, we don't know that any "A370" would be on time, either, would we? And I don't need to point out that the A380 hasn't turned out to be. So this statement is a wash.

No, we don't know about the EIS on time performance of 748, 787 and 350/370. But the 380 EIS is right around the corner, it's late but it's going to happen soon. So it's no wash. The 748 has some high performance goals to meet, delays can happen. Nobody can guarantee that it's EIS will not be delayed by 6-12 months, so why take another risk, buy a plane that is not 100% the class you planned your future with, and drop slots for a plane you got with a nice discount, including Airbus taking you to a golf ressort or whatever compensation they are offering right now? Sure worth a wait...
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deltadc9
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 8):
On top of that, they are all launch customers. They new from the beginning that a delay might happen, hey are now just hoping for a quick $, either cash right away, or a good deal in the future.

They assumed a certain amount of risk for a certain amount of reward, it appears that amount of risk has been exceeded. Being a launch customer does not mean that anything can happen and it is OK and covered in the penalty clause, it means that if things go bad you get compensated, if things go really bad you can bail. Are we to that point? Possibly.

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 16):
The other airlines were planning on later slots and don't tell me they didn't have a clue about the 748 before it's official launch. They knew for a while that Boeing is working on something. Yet they bought the 380 and if the 748 was that much better for them than the 380, they would have switched a while ago, I could imagine Boeing is giving some nice discounts to finally get a launch customer for the 748. They would have switched by now, if they didn't, that's a statement for the 380.

No one, not even Boeing, knew if they would offer the 748 until last year AFTER most 380 orders were places. Boeing has been tossing around ideas for a new 747 since the early 90's. Fleet planners can't make decisions on what Boeing might do, only on what Boeing is offering to sell at that time.

The last 6 months is not an indicator of what the future holds, the service life of the existing 744's is the indicator. Customers cancelling the 380 and going with thew 748 are just icing, but it is icing that Boeing does not NEED for the program to be profitable.

They cant just "switch" either, that is a completely ignorant statement.

The comment about discounts is laughable, Boeing does not have to sell one 748 passenger for the 748 to make money. That is the whole beauty of the program. Have they relied on passenger 744 sales for profitability? Nope.
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:43 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 15):
They could take 346HGWs I guess, but I don't think they really improve on the performance issues the 744s now face

Lets see if Airbus offer temporary capacity to meet QF's need in the interim. I wouldn;t be surprised if we see some A346 birds in QF livery for a 2 year period. (Obviously at not much expense to QF)
 
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:43 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 20):
the 380 EIS is right around the corner, it's late but it's going to happen soon. So it's no wash. The 748 has some high performance goals to meet, delays can happen.

It seems to me that this is not really a good argument, because you're merely conceding that Airbus has had a very bad track record in the last year concerning its delivery scheduling for the A380. There is no indication that, merely because Airbus has accumulated a delay of a year or more that contravenes its promises to several airlines, any development of any other aircraft by any other company is going to encounter the same delay. In fact, anything more than a two- or three-month delay in such deliveries has been quite rare in initial deliveries of large airliners of new design.

I am not aware that initial deliveries for the last few airliner designs by Boeing prior to the 787 -- i.e., the 757, 767, and 777 -- were delayed by up to 14 months. I'd have to check, but I think that they were initially delivered on time or nearly so.

Your argument, however, relies on the supposition that Boeing's 747-8 could be delayed significantly, which is made even more unlikely than it appears by the fact that the 747-8 is a stretch, and not a new design. The same supposition applies, with the same fault, to the 787, with the relatively minor modification that in that case, it is a new design; it, too, need not be delayed merely because the A380 has been.

So I really cannot agree with your conclusion in this respect.

[Edited 2006-06-20 21:50:53]
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NYC777
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:44 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 20):
No, we don't know about the EIS on time performance of 748, 787 and 350/370. But the 380 EIS is right around the corner, it's late but it's going to happen soon. So it's no wash. The 748 has some high performance goals to meet, delays can happen. Nobody can guarantee that it's EIS will not be delayed by 6-12 months, so why take another risk, buy a plane that is not 100% the class you planned your future with, and drop slots for a plane you got with a nice discount, including Airbus taking you to a golf ressort or whatever compensation they are offering right now? Sure worth a wait...

Because Boeing has a history of meeting performance and delivery goals, Airbus does not.
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:53 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 17):
Well, for that matter, we don't know that any "A370" would be on time, either, would we? And I don't need to point out that the A380 hasn't turned out to be. So this statement is a wash.

Absolutely! And, as you correctly pointed out, none of us really knows if there will, in fact, be an A370. IMHO, with all the issues surrounding Airbus right now, the safest thing for them to do is produce the A350 in it's present form.
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nudelhirsch
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:55 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 21):
They assumed a certain amount of risk for a certain amount of reward, it appears that amount of risk has been exceeded. Being a launch customer does not mean that anything can happen and it is OK and covered in the penalty clause, it means that if things go bad you get compensated, if things go really bad you can bail. Are we to that point? Possibly.

Sure. Now it went bad, so the compensations grow. Not a bad deal for airlines. Some airlines are capable of short notice fleet planning, so adapt...

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 21):
No one, not even Boeing, knew if they would offer the 748 until last year AFTER most 380 orders were places. Boeing has been tossing around ideas for a new 747 since the early 90's. Fleet planners can't make decisions on what Boeing might do, only on what Boeing is offering to sell at that time.

Is that an official statement from Boeing? If not, I highly doubt that. They started thinking about a counter-strike the moment Airbus launched the 3XX, or even sooner than that. Don't tell me that Boeing just quickly had the idea to give the 744 a makeover, that's nothing that a manager decides on a Sunday afternoon walk with his dog.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 21):
The last 6 months is not an indicator of what the future holds, the service life of the existing 744's is the indicator. Customers cancelling the 380 and going with thew 748 are just icing, but it is icing that Boeing does not NEED for the program to be profitable.

Boeing needs a lot of icing on the 748i-cake. So far the icing has been quite thin though. Nobody changed from 380 to 748i either. Problem for Boeing is, the 748 is going to replace 744s which are still good. Tough one. But the 308 is a niche, SQ, QF, LH, they all operate 744s. EK has similar planes already. The 380 is not substituting anything and it cannot be substituted by anything right now. That's why the orders are pretty safe and that's why the 748i is not selling yet. Give it some years, a replacement for the 744 will be highly needed by SQ, QF, LH, BA, UA, CX, ANA, and many more... Right now the 744 is not due for replacement yet and that is what the 748 is.
Different scenario - go bigger AND smaller to replace the 744, quite possible with 777, 330, 340, 380... Is it happening? Not so far, LH is not phasing out the 744 for a while, and the other airlines aren't either.

Tough situation for the 748 (which is a very nice plane, no question!), but the 380 has a different situation. That is too often mixed up. Some of our armchair CEOs suggest replacing 380 orders by 2 787 each - baloney, because that is not going to help on high density routes and especially not in slot restricted airports. Different markets...

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 21):
Boeing does not have to sell one 748 passenger for the 748 to make money.

Another official Boeing management statement? Are you working in the top floors there? You sure are aware of the fact that freighters and pax versions have more differences than just missing PTV, right? Even on a revamp, both need engineering. Especially with a stretch of any part. So the one VIP 748 is definitely not giving the 748i the break-even, unless the revamp is limited to a new cockpit color, which does not justify investing in new 748i anyway... But there's more, so the break-even is a bit further away than selling nothing.
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PlaneHunter
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:56 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 24):
Because Boeing has a history of meeting performance and delivery goals, Airbus does not.

Which is not a golden rule forever.


PH
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:57 am

Thanks, USAF336TFS -- I appreciate your support and comment.

It seems to me that Airbus would be a bit overstretched -- make that, severely overstretched -- if it has to meet the speculative requirements made of it.

Another "x" factor that is often not mentioned is the fact that Airbus is committed to the A400, an apparently Hercules-class turboprop military cargo carrier. That's yet another production job to which the executives at the top must allocate sufficient financial, management, and engineering expertise.

[Edited 2006-06-20 22:02:26]
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deltadc9
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:58 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 23):
Your argument, however, relies on the supposition that Boeing's 747-8 could be delayed significantly, which is made even more unlikely than it appears by the fact that the 747-8 is a stretch, and not a new design.

Actually, it is most similar to the 737NG project. New engines, better wings with simplified flaps, some FBW, and more stretch. The basic design is the same tried and true 747 design, but the result will be an incredibly efficient plane because the original 747 design was just excellent to begin with. If it was not, no set of improvements would keep it competitive.

People forget that just because it was designed in the 60's that doesn't mean it is automatically inferior to what can be designed today. Sometimes high tech takes us backwards, look at the reliability and efficiency of the Saturn V versus the Space Shuttle for a prime example.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
NYC777
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:04 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 27):
Which is not a golden rule forever.

Except at Airbus where it seems it is the rule ratherr than the exception.
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nudelhirsch
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:08 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 23):
Your argument, however, relies on the supposition that Boeing's 747-8 could be delayed significantly, which is made even more unlikely than it appears by the fact that the 747-8 is a stretch, and not a new design. The same supposition applies, with the same fault, to the 787, with the relatively minor modification that in that case, it is a new design; it, too, need not be delayed merely because the A380 has been.

True. Need not. But might happen. The 380 has no need of being delayed, yet it is. Stuff like that happens. Any EIS is not safe as a projection, it only is safe when it happens. No matter who is behind it, Airbus or Boeing. Until Boeing delivers 787 and 748 on time, they are not safe from delays, it might happen, hopefully doesn't, but who can rule it out?
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PlaneHunter
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:15 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 30):
Except at Airbus where it seems it is the rule ratherr than the exception.

As I already said, things may change. It would be naive to assume Airbus continues its streak of missed targets in the future.


PH
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:16 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 2):
I think there would be less attention to this matter if there hadn't been such a ballyhoo created by the grand unveiling of the A380 to begin with. For example, being associated with such a uniquely prestigious project could have made it more difficult for those directly in charge of the technical aspects of a matter to tell upper management that there were the possibilities for a major delay. Thus, there is something of a "snowball" effect -- attention leads to more attention, in a strange way, until now, everyone is fascinated by what increasingly appears to be a figurate train wreck.

It was very unwise to have a sense of pride at the roll out of this technical marvel. Only European pride comes before a fall, for Boeing what happens when they are proud of their achievements and want to share it with their customers?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
One would imagine part of the reason QF is going to Toulouse is to make sure that part of the problem isn't performance shortfall. If it is, you can bet they will have to cancel and be the launch customer for the 748i, and now that they've waited on that already, the 748i will be a few months later EIS than when first offered last fall.

If I was Airbus I would play hardball. Save you the trip kangaroo (or anyone else for that matter) Contractual compensation only, take it or leave it. We all have to eat, kick and scream all you want or take your business to Boeing, you are perfectly entitled to in these troubled times.... balls in your court customers, squeeze as you please, mine are nearly shot already so no difference to the pain I am in right now. Let me know yeah?

Quoting AirMailer (Reply 11):
I hate to do this, but you have a point.

What you're saying is that some time late next year (or maybe the year after that), I may be taking a trip to Sydney, and technically it will have been indirectly subsudized by the EU taxpayers?

I am not even going to mention the 787 experience
 
NYC777
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:23 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 33):
If I was Airbus I would play hardball. Save you the trip kangaroo (or anyone else for that matter) Contractual compensation only, take it or leave it. We all have to eat, kick and scream all you want or take your business to Boeing, you are perfectly entitled to in these troubled times.... balls in your court customers, squeeze as you please, mine are nearly shot already so no difference to the pain I am in right now. Let me know yeah?

do that and they will lose more than just the A380 business to Boeing. And don't fool yourself if Qantas won't ask for bids from Airbus and put RFPs in competition, they will but that would only before the express purpose of getting Boeing to lower their price.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
norcal
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:32 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 32):
It would be naive to assume Airbus continues its streak of missed targets in the future.

Nothing needs to be assumed, they missed the EIS target, but if the rumors about exceeding performance targets are true then I think those airlines will more easily forgive
 
ebbuk
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:56 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 34):
do that and they will lose more than just the A380 business to Boeing. And don't fool yourself if Qantas won't ask for bids from Airbus and put RFPs in competition, they will but that would only before the express purpose of getting Boeing to lower their price.

Duh! they've blown it already, QF went for the 787. What more can we lose from QF? They cancel the 380 take more 744's till the 748 comes, Boeing will refund all their investment for the 380 as a sweetner, or better still tell your shareholders that you'll write it off as a bad debt. Not only QF but EK and all the others.

Hard times, hard ball. We're all squeezed, it's messy and both customer and supplier had a plan for such an event. It's a pity it's come to it but it's the reality. Every single negative connotation that anyone can think of about the situation that Airbus is in, is a given. The one that airlines that have bought the 380 can cancel and walk away as easily as ILFC? Not at all sure about that one.

Anyway every single customer will come back to Airbus when Boeing has squeezed their balls selling only at list price. Not all will buy perhaps, but all will come for sure Now or later the migration to the Boeing waterhole has, is, or will, take place.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:19 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 16):
The other airlines were planning on later slots and don't tell me they didn't have a clue about the 748 before it's official launch.

Wow, so abusive from someone so wrong.

Many of the carriers who "knew" about all this ordered the plane 3-4 years ago and were hoping that by 2008 or 2009 they would actually need "555 seat" jets. The 388 was supposed to beat out CASM of the 747, and until the launch of the 7E7, there was no midsized engine family that would prove Airbus wrong.

The 748 was not a real product 3-4 years ago, Boeing was trying to recover from problems internally, working hard on certifying and selling the 773ER, and pushing the launch of the 7E7, there was no EIS in sight for a 744 replacement. They were still talking Y3 at that time being the next big jet. Further, there isn't a historical basis to supposed airlines counted on a 14 month delay on a jet with a 6+ year development cycle.

There will be 9 380 deliveries by the end of 2007. Maybe 50-60 by 748i EIS. That's only 1/2 of pax versions on order, and that might be an optimistic number. EK and SQ will have 1/2 of those, plus AF and LH taking many.

Please explain to me why SOME carriers might not decide to go with the 748i from 2010 if they aren't now expecting to get more than 1 or 2 A388 before then, if any?

And how in the hell could they predict all this in 2003 when they placed their orders?

(wait, you must be talking about Kingfisher).
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:36 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
I wonder how much blood Qantas is going to want. Perhaps they will use the threat of cancellation to extract a major refund.

Like, buy 9 A380s and get the 10th one free?

Quoting NorCal (Reply 35):
Nothing needs to be assumed, they missed the EIS target, but if the rumors about exceeding performance targets are true then I think those airlines will more easily forgive

Don't forget, those rumors come from Airbus with absolutely nothing to back them up.

It's easy to exceed performance targets when performance targets are easily moved.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
ikramerica
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:43 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 38):
Don't forget, those rumors come from Airbus with absolutely nothing to back them up.

The same company who said that there were no more delays last month, who said there would be no spacing issues due to wake, that the wing would be certified without need for any modifications, etc.

Until an airline shows the jet exceeds performance promises, excuse some of us for not buying it 100%. It's a matter of credibility.

At this point, the A380 team has ZERO credibility in the minds of the world, investors, and anyone who isn't blind to reality.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
airmailer
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:52 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 33):
I am not even going to mention the 787 experience

You mean the first of it's kind financing of a major civil aircraft project by of all things, a bank?
 
D L X
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:29 am

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 8):
On top of that, they are all launch customers. They new from the beginning that a delay might happen, hey are now just hoping for a quick $, either cash right away, or a good deal in the future.

Huh?

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 21):
Being a launch customer does not mean that anything can happen and it is OK and covered in the penalty clause, it means that if things go bad you get compensated, if things go really bad you can bail

Exactly. You don't "assume the risk" that you won't actually get the planes. Airbus promised something, and if (and it's looking more like when) Airbus doesn't live up to the promise, they are liable for their breach of contract. Frankly, Airbus is damn lucky at this point that they didn't have any American sales being so delayed. We know how litigious Americans are.
 
AerospaceFan
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:31 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 41):
We know how litigious Americans are.

Not to mention that Airbus might be seen as a "French" company and Bill O'Reilly might get into the act.

Oh, that Bill O'Reilly. Such a card.

[Edited 2006-06-21 00:32:19]
What's fair is fair.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:58 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 42):
Oh, that Bill O'Reilly. Such a card.

Boycott French dressing!!!!  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
airmailer
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 8:06 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 42):
Not to mention that Airbus might be seen as a "French" company

Owned by the French government (Didn't DaimlerChrystler (German) and BAE (U.K.) just initiate actions to sell off their shares),
financed be the French government (and probably several others in Europe I'm sure),
all major manufacturing that I am aware of in France (I know that they do the interiors in Hamburg, but they FLY the plane there once it is done being built in France right?),
just recently run by a French guy that is best buds with the president of France, then got a promotion to the parent company where he reports to?
You guessed it! a French guy.

What do you mean "MIGHT" be seen as a French company?!

*I realize that I was oversimplifying*
 
AerospaceFan
Topic Author
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 8:28 am

AirMailer, my understanding is that the Germans have a substantial interest in EADS/Airbus, but my grasp of the technicalities of how they own their interest is not that good. I think others might want to explain to both of us what that stake really is.
What's fair is fair.
 
F14ATomcat
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 9:22 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 46):
think there would be less attention to this matter if there hadn't been such a ballyhoo created by the grand unveiling of the A380 to begin with.

I am sorry to have to reply to this statement, but this is one the biggest entry fiascos ever. The L-1011, courtesy of the sole engine suppliers bankruptcy is the only worse major launch I can remember.
 
aussie747
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 9:32 am

How quickly could QF get brand spanking new 744ER models, as an interim.
 
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Tugger
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 9:49 am

Getting Back on topic...
I guess if Qantas was basing its financial model on a particular RASM that required the 380 then they could be having a crisis. Slipping delivery by one month could be easily accommodated but moving entry date by over a year can have a severe impact. Add to that the fact the deliveries will be slower and you could have a bad situation where Qantas whole financial situation is getting skewered.
Also I am sure that by being a launch customer they receive a decent discount but now can't find "lower cost" capacity (read aircraft aren't availabel cheaply enough) that will fill that need.

Just my thoughts.

Tug
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 
11Bravo
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 10:03 am

Quoting Aussie747 (Reply 48):
How quickly could QF get brand spanking new 744ER models, as an interim.

In short, never. There is only one production slot available for the B744 series (early 2009?). All the slots after that (late 2009) will be B748. I suppose QF could get that last slot for a B744ER, but if they want more they will have to be B748i.
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USAF336TFS
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 10:17 am

Whether or not EADS/Airbus is considered a French company is largely a matter of perception. It's actually controlled multi nationally. There is one undeniable fact though... The French government owns 15% of EADS. The German government does not own any part of it directly. So the French do have a dog in this hunt.
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miami1
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RE: Crisis At Qantas Over A380 Delay?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 10:23 am

People seem to forget that when the first B747's flew in the late sixies they had many a problem. They aircraft almost sent Boeing bankrupt and they laid of 64,000 employees at the time to stay afloat. PanAm was almost also sent bankrupt and considered grounding its entire fleet of B747 aircraft. I think airbus just simply got ahead of themselves in making to many promises to quickly. As for Qantas, well the delay might actually work in their favor. They new delay dates actually coincide with the end of many of the employees work place enterprise bargaining agreements. Im expecting Qantas management to ask the employees to operate the A380 at cheaper pay rates or they will threaten to give it to mostly overseas based contract cabin crews.