malb777
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If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 9:32 pm

Question for all the wanna be airline execs' out there . If it was not for the A320 family where would Airbus be at the moment? lets look at each model

A300 while it was / is a good aircraft and the 1st twin aisle short haul . never made the same sales as the 767.( as far as i am aware)
A310 another good ac but never really sold heaps
A320 sold 4000+ as has the 737 in many variants and is the best seller and definately the cash cow for airbus
A330 reasanoble sales but nothing spectacular
A340 killed by the 777 models of late
A350 lets wait and see
A380 lets see what happens
so where would airbus be withiout the A320 ? and what are they going to do about it.?
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scouseflyer
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 9:41 pm

They wouldn't be where they are but that is a daft question as all aircraft manuafacturers have to have a range and the smaller planes are the better selling ones, where would Boeing be without the 737, where would McD be without the DC9/MD80/MD90.....
 
mauriceb
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 9:48 pm

Although im a big boeing fan, just like you I guess, I think youre comment is irrelevant, because it seems like you are only looking at the disadvantages of each type.

Quote:
A300 while it was / is a good aircraft and the 1st twin aisle short haul . never made the same sales as the 767.( as far as i am aware)
A310 another good ac but never really sold heaps
A320 sold 4000+ as has the 737 in many variants and is the best seller and definately the cash cow for airbus
A330 reasanoble sales but nothing spectacular
A340 killed by the 777 models of late
A350 lets wait and see
A380 lets see what happens
so where would airbus be withiout the A320 ? and what are they going to do about it.?

A300 - But it sold well, and in the cargo section its way more popular than the 767

A310 - They made profit with it, and untill today is still a popular pax/cargo plane

A320 - Really big hit, and with airbus improving the plane day by day, it will still be popular in let's say 10 years

A330 - not spectacular? Don't forget the plane came way later than the 767, and since its launched it sold very well, even today, were it outsells the 767 big time, especially because of its cargo space. Also the new military version will be a big hit.

A340- Not Killed by the 777 at all, do you have any idea how much there are flying now a days?

A350- with the improvements it will be a great plane, but think they have a hugh disadvantage over the 787, called ''first day of flight'' never the less, it will be popular with current A330 carriers and airlines seeking for a A340/A330/A310/A300/DC-10/MD-11/777 (early models) replacement, wich can't be done by the 787 alone  

A380- Although they have some hugh problems with the plane the last couple of months (performance/sabotage/deliverydate)
it already sold like hot cakes, and with newer models (perhaps a smaller and a bigger version of the plane) it will be popular with Pax airlines, and with Package cargo airlines like UPS, FedEx. It will succeed, eventually

A400- Seems like the perfect replacement for its only competitor, the Hercules, wich is still a great aircraft but in my opinion doesn't fit in the modern war game. So the A400 will be a succes.

[Edited 2006-06-27 14:49:45]
 
thering
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 9:54 pm

Quoting Malb777 (Thread starter):
A330 reasanoble sales but nothing spectacular

The A330 (mainly the 200 series) has not bad sales at all!!

Quoting Malb777 (Thread starter):
A340 killed by the 777 models of late

The 180 min and after the 207 min ETOP certification for the B777 helped a lot to made him a much better seller than the A340!

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 1):
where would Boeing be without the 737, where would McD be without the DC9/MD80/MD90.....

I completely agree with that!
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Leezyjet
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 10:03 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 1):
where would McD be without the DC9/MD80/MD90.....

Well where are they WITH them ?.

 Wink
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Rainmaker
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 10:17 pm

Your asking an aircraft manufacturer of how it would be like without manufacturing aircraft is kind of weird isn´t it? I mean, that is what they do, don´t they?

Cheers
 
thering
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 10:22 pm

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 2):
A340- Not Killed by the 777 at all, do you have any idea how much there are flying now a days?

There are 200 more B777 tham A340 flying today, and the A340's first flight was in 1991, 3 years earlier than the B777 (1994)!
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Stitch
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus B

Tue Jun 27, 2006 10:28 pm

I'm with those who are...confused...as to what point this thread is trying to make. If it is that without the A320, Airbus would be a much smaller aircraft manufacturer, then yes, probably so.

Sure, the A320 is the best-selling member of the Airbus family, but the 737 is the best-selling member of the Boeing family. So as Scouseflyer noted, where would Boeing be without the 737? Probably also a much smaller aircraft manufacturer.

But neither of them would be struggling, I imagine, since Airbus has the small widebody twin market at the moment and Boeing has the large widebody twin market at the moment and both make pretty good money at the moment.

As others above me have noted, considering how all the models other then the A300 and A310 entered service years or even decades later than to their Boeing counterparts, they have all sold exceptionally well against them.

And those later EIS' helped Airbus tailor the plane to surpass the comparable Boeing product, just as the 777's later EIS helped it surpass the Airbus A340 family and the 787 will surpass the A330 family.

It's the way of successful companies, and both Boeing and Airbus are successful companies.

[Edited 2006-06-27 15:34:20]
 
mauriceb
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 10:33 pm

Quote:
There are 200 more B777 tham A340 flying today, and the A340's first flight was in 1991, 3 years earlier than the B777 (1994)!

Sure but that still doesn't mean that the A340 is a failure or something, it still sold well in a good sector, but one has to be the winner  Wink

Also the A330 and A340 are close to each other when looking at performance, and lots of airlines have both A330 and A340, where the 777 operators mainly use the 200 version, so actually you have to count the A330 and A340 orders as one and the 777/767 orders. when looking at that i think both manufactors are equel to eachother in the last 10 years.
 
NAV20
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 10:48 pm

It's academic at the moment because Airbus have a considerable backlog for all types. But sales of all models (including the A320) are lagging dismally this year. The figures are:-

A320 variants - 84 (Boeing 737 - 334).

A330 - 5, A340 - 3 (Boeing, 787 - 69, 777 - 22).

No other Airbus types have achieved any sales at all, unless one counts 13 X A350s (which has presumably been discontinued). On Boeing's side, they have also sold 5 X 747s and 4 X 767s.

It does occur to me that, having the prospect of a strong cash flow for several years to come from orders already in hand, Boeing could very well afford to cut the price of the 737 to the bone, and threaten Airbus' last remaining lifeline. Judging by the dramatic slowdown in A320 sales this year, they may already have started doing that.
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WINGS
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:38 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
Boeing could very well afford to cut the price of the 737 to the bone, and threaten Airbus' last remaining lifeline. Judging by the dramatic slowdown in A320 sales this year, they may already have started doing that.

Or it may be that Airbus are holding off some orders for Farnborough.

Regards,
Wings
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manni
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:01 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 10):

Or it may be that Airbus are holding off some orders for Farnborough.

Right now, announcing new orders might not be in Airbus best interest. But in 3 weeks time, a lot can change. The question is not will they announce orders at Farnborough, but how many will they announce.
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boeingguy1
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:07 am

Quoting Thering (Reply 3):
The 180 min and after the 207 min ETOP certification for the B777 helped a lot to made him a much better seller than the A340!

Yes, so does the increased fuel preformance... its a better plane overall.
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grantcv
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:15 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
Judging by the dramatic slowdown in A320 sales this year, they may already have started doing that.

I think Airbus borrowed sales from the future to maintain their sales position last year. Especially with the counting of sales of A320's to China. They probably made very good offers to all potential customers in the final weeks of 2005 and many customers bit. Problem is, it created a vacuum in the beginning of 2006.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:17 am

"I think Airbus borrowed sales from the future to maintain their sales position last year. Especially with the counting of sales of A320's to China. They probably made very good offers to all potential customers in the final weeks of 2005 and many customers bit. Problem is, it created a vacuum in the beginning of 2006."

It's probably a slightly daft position to take as orders are only prestige - it's delivery and cash flow that are really important - Ie you can take millions of orders but you only get paid for most of them when you deliver something!
 
EI321
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 6:11 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
But sales of all models (including the A320) are lagging dismally this year.

I'll let you in on a little secret, Airbus stock pile orders for announcements at big airshows. I would presume that somebody that spends as much time here as you would have figured that by now. It was the exact same storey last year, Boeing's orderbook was way ahead of airbus until the summer airshows. Look what happened in the end.
 
NAV20
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 1:11 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 15):
I'll let you in on a little secret, Airbus stock pile orders for announcements at big airshows.

Pretty big secret if so, E1321. I wasn't aware that they did that with large NUMBERS of orders? How many orders did Airbus actually announce at airshows during 2005?

The current arithmetic is pretty stunning. Boeing 434 orders, Airbus 92. If you are in on the 'secret,' as you imply, do you mean that Airbus are going to announce 342 firm orders at Farnborough, and dramatically draw level?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
B6WNQX
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 1:22 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 11):
The question is not will they announce orders at Farnborough, but how many will they announce.

Exactly...it seems to have become a ritual for Airbus to announce orders at the airshows. Should be an interesting airshow to say the least.
 
thering
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 1:25 pm

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 8):
so actually you have to count the A330 and A340 orders as one and the 777/767 orders

If you put together A330 and A340, you should put together 777 and 787, considering that 767 is not a new project.
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DfwRevolution
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 1:33 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 11):
The question is not will they announce orders at Farnborough, but how many will they announce.

Then it's a question of if airshow orders will ever become real orders. The QR commitment for 60 A350 was an airshow order from last year, and it's gone no where. Heck it's been 12 months and the concurent 777 order has just now been signed...

Quoting Thering (Reply 18):
If you put together A330 and A340, you should put together 777 and 787, considering that 767 is not a new project.

What has that got to do with anything? If you want the most accurate number, you need to compare:

A300 sales from 1987-2006
A330/A340 sales from 1987-2006
A350 sales from 2004-2006

versus

767 sales from 1987-2006
777 sales from 1991-2006
787 sales from 2004-2006
 
manni
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 2:21 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 19):
Then it's a question of if airshow orders will ever become real orders.

That question is not limited to airshow order announcements, nor Airbus (need examples?). You just happen to dig up an example of a 'commitment' that was announced at an airshow, which is at the moment neither firmed up nor cancelled.

I also remember the skepticism when Airbus announced the 100 aircraft order for Indigo at last years airshow... the first one rolled out of the paintshop last week.
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NAV20
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 2:49 pm

Manni (and others), in business terms it is impossible for large numbers of actual signed orders to be kept secret for months.

The reason is that they are invariably binding multi-billion-dollar transactions. The officers of the airlines concerned (and, indeed, EADS) are bound to inform their shareholders, and the market, of such transactions without delay.

In very rare cases orders are actually signed and sealed during airshows. But that would be the exception rather than the rule since it would involve attendance at the show not only of the relevant CEOs, but also of the commercial/legal teams of both sides.

What it boils down to is that the most you can expect from Airbus at Farnborough is a lot of talk about 'commitments'. Certainly nothing that will even begin to catch up with Boeing's huge lead in orders this year (which currently stands at 434 to 92, and will probably increase still further when Boeing up-dates its order page tomorrow).
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:07 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
Boeing could very well afford to cut the price of the 737 to the bone, and threaten Airbus' last remaining lifeline. Judging by the dramatic slowdown in A320 sales this year, they may already have started doing that.

And which carriers do you think have switched to the B737 based on that theory? Most orders have been placed by existing B737NG customers...


PH
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NAV20
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:19 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 22):
Most orders have been placed by existing B737NG customers...

Who will all have been offered the A320 instead, and turned it down......
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:31 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
Who will all have been offered the A320 instead, and turned it down......

It's a bit naive to assume that airlines with large B737NG fleets such as Aeromexico, Air Europa, AirTran, Alaska, Continental, COPA, GOL, Pegasus, Southwest or WestJet would seriously evaluate to order A32X series aircraft at this point of time.

If A320 customers start to switch to the N737NG, or airlines without either A320 and B737 start to order B737NGs in significant numbers, then you may have a point.


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
manni
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus B

Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:40 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 21):

What it boils down to is that the most you can expect from Airbus at Farnborough is a lot of talk about 'commitments'.

Agreed. But those might eventually all or partially turn into firm orders.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 21):
Certainly nothing that will even begin to catch up with Boeing's huge lead in orders this year (which currently stands at 434 to 92,

Not sure why Airbus needs to catch up with Boeing here. With a backlog of more than 2000 aircraft and a capacity of less than 500 aircraft a year. How much bigger can a backlog get before you lock yourself out of the market? Having said that, I dont doubt for a moment that, if Airbus could have sold 434 aircraft, they probably would have done so.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 23):
Who will all have been offered the A320 instead, and turned it down......



Southwest (89), Continental (26) and Air Tran (25) would be laughing out loud if Airbus tried to take a shot at it. More interesting is the identity of the airlines for the remaining 89 unidentified 737's. Altough the majority of these might be part of the Chinese order.
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NAV20
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:55 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 25):
With a backlog of more than 2000 aircraft and a capacity of less than 500 aircraft a year.

With respect, Manni, that's the point. At best, Airbus has orders in hand to support four years' production - less if, as one expects, some of the delivery dates stretch well beyond four years.

But they are going to need to 'hold out' for at least SIX years before they can begin building and delivering any new-design competitive types. How are they going to fill that two-year gap if orders for all their current types (even orders for the A320) stay dried up?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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RayChuang
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:02 pm

Actually, the Europeans were already pushing for a single-aisle short-range airliner well before the A320 was born. There was a need to replace all those BAC 111's, Caravelles and Tridents; that's why Aerospatiale did the AS200 studies that evolved into the Joint European Transport studies in the late 1970's. From the JET studies, that finally resulted in the A320 in 1983.
 
lordanmol
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:33 pm

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 2):
it already sold like hot cakes, and with newer models (perhaps a smaller and a bigger version of the plane) it will be popular with Pax airlines, and with Package cargo airlines like UPS, FedEx. It will succeed, eventually

I thought I heard somewhere that the A380 programme is still not in a profit?
Hmmmmm....
 
manni
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus B

Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:51 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
At best, Airbus has orders in hand to support four years' production - less if, as one expects, some of the delivery dates stretch well beyond four years.


Four years at maximum capacity. 5 years at last years output. That's a very envious backlog for any manufacturer of any product.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):

But they are going to need to 'hold out' for at least SIX years before they can begin building and delivering any new-design competitive types. How are they going to fill that two-year gap if orders for all their current types (even orders for the A320) stay dried up?

If you assume that they might not book a single order between now and 2012 you have a point. Even you, NAV20, can't be such a pessimist.

Even if Airbus keeps taking in orders at the current rate of just under a 100 in the first six months (not sure if that number is correct, since it's still june, and Airbus will not update untill halfway next month). In 2010, when their current backlog will assumingly have dried up, Airbus will have booked another 800 orders. Covering the remaining 2 years untill 2012.  bigthumbsup 

Jokes and funny assumption aside, here's what might keep Airbus taking in orders.

-Increase the production output of the A320 to compete better with the 737, as new slots become available the huge backlog wont be such a problem.

-Modify the A320 slightly, in order to be one step ahead of the competition at minimal cost.

-Launch the A332F, rumoured to become available from 2009.

-The A380 certainly hasn't seen her last orders and it is not unreasonable to expect orders to pick up again, once proven in commercial service.

-Take advantage of the huge 787 backlog and the late EIS of the A350 by aggressively marketing the A330. Many airlines need aircraft now and not only after 2011.
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NAV20
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 5:04 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 29):
If you assume that they might not book a single order between now and 2012 you have a point. Even you, NAV20, can't be such a pessimist.

Dunno, Manni - don't know about you, but I'm in uncharted territory. I don't recall ever before seeing a major company totally lose credibility, on a world-wide scale, in such a short time. 'Never seen anything like it in all me life.'

Tell you what - given recent front-page publicity, I reckon any airline CEO who goes to his board with a proposal to buy any kind of Airbus in the near future will be showing 'conspicuous gallantry above and beyond the call of duty.' Real Victoria Cross stuff. Or would the Croix de Guerre be more appropriate in this case?  Smile
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 5:26 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 30):
I don't recall ever before seeing a major company totally lose credibility, on a world-wide scale, in such a short time. 'Never seen anything like it in all me life.'

Airbus certainly hasn't "totally lost credibility on a world-wide scale", not every customer is out for A350/A370s or A380s. Are you actually aware of the number of worldwide Airbus customers? And how many of them are affected by current problems?
No, your "zero-order/dry up-theory" or whatever you prefer to call it won't happen and Airbus will stay in business. Time to think of another worst-case scenario...  Yeah sure


PH
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A350
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 5:34 pm

I miss the point that the A340 has already been evaluated parallel to the A320 and Airbus decided to go for the A320 first. If they had gone for the A340 instead, it would have come by the end of the 80s and been an overwhelming success. It would have eateen virtually all MD11 orders. The T7 wouldn't have been a competitor since the 772A lacks range and the 772ER would have come a decade later. Or, say it in a different way, the A340 is a great a/c but was killed by the A320.

A350
 
markabcan
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 5:51 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 30):
don't know about you, but I'm in uncharted territory. I don't recall ever before seeing a major company totally lose credibility, on a world-wide scale, in such a short time. 'Never seen anything like it in all me life.

Ummm, they certainly have not lost total credibility as you put it! Their recent problems have brought on negative publicity but they are still a very strong company. Companies that lose total credibilty like Enron no longer exist! Airbus will be fine and I expect the new Airbus 350/370 to be a hit!!
 
EI321
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 8:51 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 16):
The current arithmetic is pretty stunning. Boeing 434 orders, Airbus 92. If you are in on the 'secret,' as you imply, do you mean that Airbus are going to announce 342 firm orders at Farnborough, and dramatically draw level?

If your asking me whether Airbus will announce 342, well my crystal ball is in for repair so I cant tell you exactly how many orders will be announced, but im sure it will be plenty. Im a grown-up, to be honest the precise 'numbers game' does not really interest me very much.
 
Aviator27
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 9:50 pm

Airbus is a relatively young company. Apart from the A300 model, the rest of their airplanes are relatively new. The A320 design freeze was 1985. EIS was 1988. The A330 is not even 15 years old yet. Airbus should have never overtaken Boeing in any market segment. The competition between the two has driven Boeing to innovation. This is nothing but good for airlines and passengers. Everyone is talking as if Airbus is dead in the water. Design cycles of airplanes take decades. You can't judge a company by one bad year in sales for their widebodies (their narrowbodies kicked butt). Nor can anyone cite the failure of any airplane not even at design freeze yet (A350). For a so called "crappy airplane" it managed to corner 40% of the market in less than 2 years. I'm not worried about Airbus. Nor am I worried about their leadership. These things tend to sort themselves out at good companies. Not so long ago, Boeing had "leadership issues" themselves. So smile and enjoy the wonderful new airplanes many of us will get to fly and fly on.
 
Lufthansa
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 10:21 pm

Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 35):
So smile and enjoy the wonderful new airplanes many of us will get to fly and fly on.

Well said aviator27.... unfortunately everybody here isn't quite as mature and insightful as you and plenty feel the need to carry on in a more primative 'tribal warfare' type approach. Those those guys on both sides that feel the need to take this 'until death do us part' attitude, ask yourself this? "why do you feel so much hate for the other competitor?"...dwell on that for a while and ponder.
 
bmacleod
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 10:28 pm

Quoting Malb777 (Thread starter):
A340 killed by the 777 models of late

If the A340 is dead why is it still in production?  confused 

Quoting Malb777 (Thread starter):
A310 another good ac but never really sold heaps

LH, AF and most other European airlines ordered a lot. It also did very well in Asia.

If not for the A320 well McDonnell Douglas might have lasts a while longer but it's ultimate fate of being swallowed by Boeing would not have changed.....
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DfwRevolution
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 11:16 pm

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 37):
If the A340 is dead why is it still in production?

It's dead in the sense that it has zero future as a viable competitor

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 31):
Are you actually aware of the number of worldwide Airbus customers? And how many of them are affected by current problems?

Now you're just being flat ignorant...

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 22):
And which carriers do you think have switched to the B737 based on that theory? Most orders have been placed by existing B737NG customers...

(1) He was speaking in future tense, not past or present. Who will switch to the 737NG if Boeing dramaticly reduces its price?

(2) Consider what airlines are currently evaluating the A320 and 737NG on fresh terms, like LH, and there is the potential for Boeing to win some upsets this year.
 
grantcv
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Wed Jun 28, 2006 11:58 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 30):
Dunno, Manni - don't know about you, but I'm in uncharted territory. I don't recall ever before seeing a major company totally lose credibility, on a world-wide scale, in such a short time. 'Never seen anything like it in all me life.'

Happens all the time: Enron, Arthur Anderson, Worldcom. Compared to those, Airbus' problems are minor. Airbus will recover.
 
787engineer
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:14 am

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 2):
A340- Not Killed by the 777 at all, do you have any idea how much there are flying now a days?

As of the end of 2005, Airbus has delivered 313 A340s since its EIS in 1993, 310 of which are still flying. Boeing has delivered 539 777s since EIS in 1995, and AFAIK all of them are still flying.

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 8):

Also the A330 and A340 are close to each other when looking at performance, and lots of airlines have both A330 and A340, where the 777 operators mainly use the 200 version, so actually you have to count the A330 and A340 orders as one and the 777/767 orders. when looking at that i think both manufactors are equel to eachother in the last 10 years.

Over the last 10 years (Jan. 1995 - Dec. 2005) Airbus has delivered 698 A330s/A340s. Over the same time period Boeing has delivered 914 767s/777s. Just stating the numbers here; ya'll can make your own judgements, reasoning, etc.

Quoting Manni (Reply 25):
Not sure why Airbus needs to catch up with Boeing here. With a backlog of more than 2000 aircraft and a capacity of less than 500 aircraft a year. How much bigger can a backlog get before you lock yourself out of the market? Having said that, I dont doubt for a moment that, if Airbus could have sold 434 aircraft, they probably would have done so.

My two cents: Airbus may have a backlog of 2000 aircraft, but about 1600 of those 2000 are A320s. The rest of the Airbus widebodies, A330/A340/A350/A380, only have a backlog of ~400 and about 250 of those 400 are A350s/A380s. Airbus delivers about 75 330s/340s per year so that's only about 2 yars of backlog. IMO, Airbus should really be concerned about keeping the A330/A340 lines open long enough if they plan on reusing them for the A350. If not, their widebody market outlook still looks pretty bleak, however that can all change at the airshow so we'll have to wait and see.

Quoting Lordanmol (Reply 28):
I thought I heard somewhere that the A380 programme is still not in a profit?

It won't be for at least a few years. The official number now is 300 frames before break even (probably higher especially with the latest delays, but let's not speculate).

Quoting A350 (Reply 32):
I miss the point that the A340 has already been evaluated parallel to the A320 and Airbus decided to go for the A320 first. If they had gone for the A340 instead, it would have come by the end of the 80s and been an overwhelming success. It would have eateen virtually all MD11 orders. The T7 wouldn't have been a competitor since the 772A lacks range and the 772ER would have come a decade later. Or, say it in a different way, the A340 is a great a/c but was killed by the A320.

If Airbus came out with the A340 by the end of the 80s, who's to say it would have the same performance as it did when it actually entered service in 1993. You can't just assume it would've eaten all MD-11 orders. . . what if it was less efficient than the MD-11? Speculation goes both ways  Yeah sure. If you say "the A340 is a great a/c but was killed by the A320", i guess you could also say "the A340 is a great a/c but was killed by Airbus management's boneheaded decision to go for the A320 first"  Wink
 
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:30 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 40):
Airbus delivers about 75 330s/340s per year so that's only about 2 yars of backlog.

Airbus has currently a backlog of 231 aircraft for the A330/340 family, apparently excluding the 5 A345 for Kingfisher and including the 18 (?) A346 for Emirates.
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787engineer
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:43 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 41):

Airbus has currently a backlog of 231 aircraft for the A330/340 family, apparently excluding the 5 A345 for Kingfisher and including the 18 (?) A346 for Emirates.

Good point, thank you for the correction, I was basing my numbers off the 2000 frame backlog whereas it's closer to 2100 now and about 2200 at the end of 2005. Still we're talking about a 3 year backlog for the A330s/A340s compared to a 5-6 year backlog for the A320s. . .
 
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Stitch
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:49 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 24):
It's a bit naive to assume that airlines with large B737NG fleets such as Aeromexico, Air Europa, AirTran, Alaska, Continental, COPA, GOL, Pegasus, Southwest or WestJet would seriously evaluate to order A32X series aircraft at this point of time.

While the "barriers to entry" for a new type of plane would be high for carriers with an existing fleet, if the financial model is compelling enough, they're probably going to do it. CO and DL, for example, even with their 762 and 763 fleets, were convinced of the ecomonic model of the A333 enough to prepare to order it. By offering the 764ER, the "barrier to entry" for the A333 became too high again.

Quoting Manni (Reply 25):
Not sure why Airbus needs to catch up with Boeing here...How much bigger can a backlog get before you lock yourself out of the market?

And locking oneself out of the market due to selling out your entire production capacity for a period of time is a bad thing?  Confused

If Airbus had landed close to 400 orders for the A350 and Boeing had only around 100 for the 787, would people be saying "Airbus better slown down! They're selling too many planes!"

I think not.  Wink

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 37):
If the A340 is dead why is it still in production?

Because they have a backlog of orders they need to fill, of course. Same with the 767 and 747, which are also evidently "dead" based on statements issued here.  Smile
 
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus B

Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:20 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 41):
Same with the 767 and 747, which are also evidently "dead" based on statements issued here.


Well we know the 767 will be replaced by the 787, the 747 still has hope with the 747-8F, though no movement so far on the 747-8I (pax version)

[Edited 2006-06-28 20:24:17]
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:40 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 38):
Now you're just being flat ignorant...

You can call it how ever you want, but it's a FACT that only a minority of worldwide Airbus customers is affected by current problems. Check the original quote I replied to before you call my statement "ignorant".

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 38):
(1) He was speaking in future tense, not past or present. Who will switch to the 737NG if Boeing dramaticly reduces its price?

No, he wasn't just referring to the future. Reminder:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
Judging by the dramatic slowdown in A320 sales this year, they may already have started doing that.



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 38):
(2) Consider what airlines are currently evaluating the A320 and 737NG on fresh terms, like LH, and there is the potential for Boeing to win some upsets this year.

I wasn't talking about major fleet renewals, but the orders placed this year, and so was the user I replied to.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):
if the financial model is compelling enough, they're probably going to do it.

Yes, but only for major fleet renewals.


PH
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manni
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus B

Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:50 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 44):
Quoting Manni (Reply 41):
Same with the 767 and 747, which are also evidently "dead" based on statements issued here.


Well we know the 767 will be replaced by the 787, the 747 still has hope with the 747-8F, though no movement so far on the 747-8I (pax version)

Bmacleod,

Just to clarify. This quote you posted has not been written by me.

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 42):
. Still we're talking about a 3 year backlog for the A330s/A340s compared to a 5-6 year backlog for the A320s. . .

Indeed, if Airbus keeps producing their widebodies at current production rate, they might run out in 3 years time from now. However, it's not unreasonable to expect them to keep selling the A330 in reasonable volumes. The A330F might also sell well enough to make up for fewer sales on the passenger side.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 30):
Quoting Manni (Reply 29):
If you assume that they might not book a single order between now and 2012 you have a point. Even you, NAV20, can't be such a pessimist.

Dunno, Manni

Whoa, Nav. Did you read the post about TAM possibly ordering 37 new aircraft soon? Hope you're not a betting man.  Wink
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Johnny
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RE: If It Was'nt For The A320 Where Would Airbus Be

Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:33 pm

@DfwRevolution
"What has that got to do with anything? If you want the most accurate number, you need to compare:"

A300 sales from 1987-2006
A330/A340 sales from 1987-2006
A350 sales from 2004-2006

versus

767 sales from 1987-2006
777 sales from 1991-2006
787 sales from 2004-2006



Hmmm, nearly correct....

You must include the A310 sales in the A300-figure as the A310 is the direct competitor to the B762/ER.

Johnny  Smile