Flying-Tiger
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Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Tue Jul 04, 2006 11:21 pm

Quote:
``Airbus is at risk of becoming a marginal, niche manufacturer in a couple of years unless they act now,'' says Richard Aboulafia, vice president of Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based consulting firm.



Full article here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...601109&sid=a_RKjcGiXkyU&refer=home

Sorry, but that's getting ridiculous...

Quote:
Delays in the $13 billion A380 program have prevented management from focusing on a competitor for Boeing's mid-size 787. Without a plane in this category, Toulouse, France-based Airbus would cede a market worth an estimated $450 billion over the next 20 years to Boeing.



The A350 will come - we will just have to wait a couple of days to know in which form.

And that guy is supposed to be an aviation analyst??? Good laugh...
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dutchjet
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Tue Jul 04, 2006 11:36 pm

As much as you dont like what is being said, the sad truth is that there are an awful lot of problems at Airbus at the moment that need to be fixed.....and Airbus needs to get its act together very quickly.

I dont think its necessary to go through each and every issue again, the Airbus drama has been played out in the international media (not to mention a.net), but the problems are significant. And you know it.

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
The A350 will come - we will just have to wait a couple of days to know in which form.

Is it the A350 or A370 and will it compete in the 787 or 777 category and when will it enter airline service and will the airlines order it? Some rather serious questions. If Airbus does not get the A350/370 right, the big problems in Toulouse just got HUGE.

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
And that guy is supposed to be an aviation analyst??? Good laugh...

Not only an analyst - one the leading analysts. And his negativity is justified after Airbus' recent performance.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Tue Jul 04, 2006 11:45 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 1):
Is it the A350 or A370 and will it compete in the 787 or 777 category and when will it enter airline service and will the airlines order it? Some rather serious questions. If Airbus does not get the A350/370 right, the big problems in Toulouse just got HUGE.

Let's see... The A350 in its various versions has gained +/- 100 firm orders within 12 months, probably reflecting market value of some 10-15 billion USD with another 5 or so billion USD sold in A330s, representing more or less 2.5-3 years at full production run excluding any options. The last A350 versions have been a more or less in-between B777 / 787 plane, and it was still accepted by a couple of customers who ordered it.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 1):
Not only an analyst - one the leading analysts. And his negativity is justified after Airbus' recent performance.

So where is his comment that Boeing hasn't been able to deliver its B737 early warning birds on time? Those birds will be delayed for 18 months, and Boeing has been trying to hide this from their customers till mid-May (read at FI) - sounds familiar? So why isn't he blasting Boeing for a very similar - and extremly expensive - miss? Leading analyst... yeah. Tells you something about him being biased.
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dutchjet
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Wed Jul 05, 2006 12:28 am

We have different opinons, which is fine. But do note that Airbus itself recognizes that its has some serious problems to solve.....you can atleast do the same.
 
SInGAPORE_AIR
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Wed Jul 05, 2006 12:41 am

Why are certain people being so hostile, in a veiled way or otherwise? It's totally uncalled for.
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Wed Jul 05, 2006 12:44 am

As noted in another thread on Mr. Aboulafia, he can heap praise on Airbus when they are performing positively.

As to his comments regarding Wedgetail, he felt the Australian Defense Minister's comments were "harsh" due to "the complexity of the program".

[Edited 2006-07-04 17:46:22]
 
mham001
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Wed Jul 05, 2006 1:36 am

You can slam Mr Richard, but the same article carries a quote from another analyst saying the same thing, and he's not even American:

``There's not much time left,'' says Peter Rieth, an analyst at BHF-
Bank in Frankfurt. ``The new chief executive officer primarily has
the task of bringing the problems in the company back on track,
especially with the A380. That means not delaying deliveries any
further and making strategic decisions such as how things will
continue with the A350. These are two huge challenges for the new
management.''
 
jacobin777
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Wed Jul 05, 2006 2:09 am

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
The A350 will come - we will just have to wait a couple of days to know in which form.

And that guy is supposed to be an aviation analyst??? Good laugh...



Quoting Singapore_Air (Reply 5):
Why are certain people being so hostile, in a veiled way or otherwise? It's totally uncalled for.

you can say what you want about him, but when EK's Clark makes a statement just a couple of weeks ago regarding the A350, it says something..and basically his comments mirror Aboulafia in a many respects..

fair use excerpt:

"Aside from the A380, Airbus still has challenges, Clark said. "We have not yet had a formal offering on the revised A350 [the so-called A370]. They have widened the fuselage and added a new high-speed wing but we have not seen a formal offering.""

"He said the original A350 would have been a good aircraft "if it was delivered in 1993." Emirates would prefer to wait to see exactly what the A370 will be before committing to the 787-10, "but we are running out of time." Airbus has not yet committed to going ahead with the new variant, he added. "Airbus told us that Singapore Airlines was excited by the new A370, but then they ordered the 787-9.""

source: atwonline.com 06-22-06
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khobar
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Wed Jul 05, 2006 10:31 am

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 2):
and Boeing has been trying to hide this from their customers till mid-May (read at FI)

I'd like to read that article. Do you have a link?
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Wed Jul 05, 2006 3:47 pm

Here comes help:

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...C+problems+cost+Boeing+dearly.html

Quote:
Australian defence minister Brendan Nelson says the problems were first brought to his attention in May, and were the focus of top-level discussions with Boeing in June. “Until recently, Boeing was advising that this project was running well,” he says, adding that the government has made clear it is “very disappointed the project will not be delivered on schedule”. The exact delay will be determined over the next two months, he says.
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khobar
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RE: Time For A Good Laugh - Aboulafia At Its Best

Wed Jul 05, 2006 11:27 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 9):
Here comes help:

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles....html

The article you linked to does not say that Boeing was trying to hide anything from anyone. Considering the DMO is right there by Boeing's side in all this I suspected as much. I should also note that problems with the integration date back past 2002 when Boeing took a $100M hit for cost overruns and delays on the system.

As to your accusation:

From: http://tinyurl.com/qjul9 "It was analysis of data from flight tests in late May that led Boeing to realise it needed more time to complete development of the 737 AEW&C."

So, as the article you linked to stated, until recently the program was running well. The problems Nelson says were brought to his attention in May came to light at Boeing - in May.