RAPCON
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AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:05 am

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...49DC-B379-C61E9037A1DC%7D&keyword=

In other words: Don't expect any flashy announcements!

But at least they seem to be going fwd with the A330F version.
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:36 am

Quote:
"Our customers are not looking to Farnborough for confidence," McArtor said in an interview Monday. "They are confident that we are going to offer them a superior airplane."

I wonder if he said that with a straight face!  vomit 
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starrion
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:46 am

Good.


It would be far better for Airbus to sit down and get it right than rush out another revision. They need a credible response to the 777/787 that is economically viable for them. This is not the time for back of the envelope drawings and best estimate performance figures.

They may need an A350/A370 to cover the full line up. Regardless they need more time to do it right, and the new boss is not going to make hasty decisions with the next 20 years line up at stake.
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slz396
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:30 am

I think what will happen is that the A350 will be confirmed pretty much as it is right now, with customers firming up their commitments the days after: Yemenia itself has said they will sign firmly for 10 A350s on June 18th for instance.

In parallel, Airbus will also announce they have started to work on a bigger, wider, faster twin, which will be as a big sister to the A350 and will replace the A340, yet will compete with the 777 and they most probably will announce RR has signed an agreement to build the new engine for this plane. General key performance targets will be set, like range, weight, size, fuel consumption, payload etc and maybe some sort of artistic drawing of the new plane will also be made available to make sure there is something visual to show to the world, but I don't expect a real launch of a completed product yet: for that they'd need more time, more insight in the needs of potential customers and above all, a launch customer.

How does this sound? It is not overly ambitious and it unites different news patters like the new engines for a bigger twin from RR and the order from Yemenia for the current A350.
 
siromega
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:33 am

Well they need to get it right one last time. An extra few months is no big deal when the plane wont in use until six or more years from now.

I wonder if this diminishes or eliminiates the chance of he 787-10 annoucement at Farnborough. Maybe Boeing goes back and looks at more adjustments or enhancments.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:41 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 3):
I think what will happen is that the A350 will be confirmed pretty much as it is right now, with customers firming up their commitments the days after: Yemenia itself has said they will sign firmly for 10 A350s on June 18th for instance.

In parallel, Airbus will also announce they have started to work on a bigger, wider, faster twin, which will be as a big sister to the A350 and will replace the A340, yet will compete with the 777 and they most probably will announce RR has signed an agreement to build the new engine for this plane. General key performance targets will be set, like range, weight, size, fuel consumption, payload etc and maybe some sort of artistic drawing of the new plane will also be made available to make sure there is something visual to show to the world, but I don't expect a real launch of a completed product yet: for that they'd need more time, more insight in the needs of potential customers and above all, a launch customer.

How does this sound? It is not overly ambitious and it unites different news patters like the new engines for a bigger twin from RR and the order from Yemenia for the current A350.

Doing my own back of envelope calculation - if they continue the current A350 with it's 100+ sales I think that'll make them there money back on about 400 (that's 300 more) planes. Making a new, larger clean-sheet design will mean that the main players from Boeing and AB will not compete directly in size:

A350
787
A370
777

and everyone's happy!!!!
 
BoomBoom
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:47 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 3):
How does this sound?

So Airbus is going to spend $5 billion on the old "all new A350" and then spend $15 billion more on the new "really new A370" which will be a "big sister" to the A350 and will replace the A340. But aren't these two planes too close in size to justify a $20 billion investment which still does not address the 788 size segment of the market? And you think this is "not overly ambitious"?
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M27
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:48 am

For some reason when I read the linked article, I think of the old saying(wish I could take credit for it, but think it was Will Rogers) that goes--If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!
 
Ken777
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:04 am

Sticking with the 350 takes care of several important issues.

First it provides a new plane for delivery in 2010, making it attractive to some airlines.

It also fills a gap that would go to Boeing if Airbus only delivers the 370.

Just as important as potential sales it avoids having to write off the R&D investment made to date.

I'm for sticking with the 350 and also for having the guys & gals working on a 330F make it a 350F. I just don't see the logic of developing a freighter based on the 330 when there is some good R&D completed for the 350. If your engineers are working on a freighter let them work on the best you have.
 
787engineer
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:30 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 3):
How does this sound? It is not overly ambitious and it unites different news patters like the new engines for a bigger twin from RR and the order from Yemenia for the current A350.

It is quite ambitious if you consider the sheer number of engineers that will be needed to work both projects simultaneously. The intial investment would require an enormous financial commitment at a time when Airbus will be strapped for cash (to a certain extent). Would having both projects running simultaneously push the A370 back from 2012 to 2013?

Quoting SirOmega (Reply 4):
Well they need to get it right one last time. An extra few months is no big deal when the plane wont in use until six or more years from now.

I wonder if this diminishes or eliminiates the chance of he 787-10 annoucement at Farnborough. Maybe Boeing goes back and looks at more adjustments or enhancments.

I don't see why it would. The airlines have voiced a clear demand for the 787-10, and right now the issue is finding a launch customer for the airplane. I think there's enough "existing future operators" of the 787 that their demand for a larger airplane that maintains fleet commonality to make the 787-10 project worthwhile. Not to mention the possible EK order.
 
gigneil
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:35 am

Just to clear up something in the article... the A330-200F is done. Done. Finished. Ready to go to production. It was ready in 2001, but shelved immediately as a result of the collapse of the US economy followed by 9/11.

It won't be an engineering drain, and I think it could easily prove a moneymaker for Airbus.

N
 
c680
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:39 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 8):
I'm for sticking with the 350 and also for having the guys & gals working on a 330F make it a 350F. I just don't see the logic of developing a freighter based on the 330 when there is some good R&D completed for the 350. If your engineers are working on a freighter let them work on the best you have.

Going from 330 to 330F can be done for a lot less $$$ and much quicker than 330 to 350F.

A 330F project can consist of Doors, Floors, and testing.

A 350F project could involve new power plants, new skin materials, new wing, new systems, new ... well, you get my point.

330F also sits right between 767F and 777F. 350F will be closer to 777F.
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slz396
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:17 am

I don't think it needs to be A330F OR A350F, but rather A330F now AND A350F in about 6 to 8 years.

The A330 and A350 share indentical fuselage cross sections (size I mean) and electrical systems, so integrating the newly designed A330F cargo components into the A350 will not be that difficult I'd think?

[Edited 2006-07-12 01:18:16]
 
BoomBoom
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:43 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 10):
Just to clear up something in the article... the A330-200F is done. It was ready in 2001, but shelved immediately as a result of the collapse of the US economy followed by 9/11.

The US economy collapsed? A collapse would be something worse than the Depression of the 1930s. The stock market collapsed, but the stock market is not the whole economy.

The US economy experienced a mild recession, this was underway prior to 9-11. The airline industry was heading into a cyclical downturn, then collapsed as a result of 9-11.
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manni
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:01 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 13):
The US economy collapsed?

Apparently the US$ did. Last time I checked the A350/370 was projected to cost about 8 billion Euro. You've converted that into US$ en came up with...

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 6):
then spend $15 billion more on the new "really new A370"



Quoting Ken777 (Reply 8):
Sticking with the 350 takes care of several important issues.

First it provides a new plane for delivery in 2010, making it attractive to some airlines.

It also fills a gap that would go to Boeing if Airbus only delivers the 370.

Indeed. Most existing customers and customers who haven't firmed up their commitment yet were expecting this aircraft afterall. That would mean about 185 orders right there.

Nevertheless, untill Airbus makes her announcement, it's all just speculation.
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BoomBoom
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 1:45 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 14):
Apparently the US$ did. Last time I checked the A350/370 was projected to cost about 8 billion Euro.

You are correct. I did have my numbers mixed up. The A370 will likely cost 8 billion Euro or $10.2 billion at today's exchange rate. If they build the A350 too, that's another $5 billion for a total of $15 billion.
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manni
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 2:00 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 15):
If they build the A350 too, that's another $5 billion for a total of $15 billion.


These numbers are based on building the A350 OR A370.

Some of the technologies payed for in developing the A350 might be used on the A370 (following the 2 aircraft theorie). Therefore the developments costs of the A370 might turn out lower than in the case Airbus would only develop the A370.

If we compare this to the investments made by the competitor, Airbus US$ 15 billion is nothing extrodinary. Boeing has projected US$ 8 billion for the 787 (a figure that possibly excludes the much anticipated 787-10), and IIRC has invested US$ 12 billion in the 777, the aircraft the A370 is supposed to take on.
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BoomBoom
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RE: AIRBUS: Plans Not Tied To Farnborough

Wed Jul 12, 2006 2:55 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 16):
Some of the technologies payed for in developing the A350 might be used on the A370 (following the 2 aircraft theorie). Therefore the developments costs of the A370 might turn out lower than in the case Airbus would only develop the A370.

Possibly, but that's pure conjecture at this point. My opinion, given the cost over runs on the A380, is that $15 billion is low balling it.
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