scotron11
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BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:33 pm

There is an article in the Observer (21 May) regarding T5 at LHR and its capacity to handle the A380.

When it opens in 2008, T5 will have 10 stands capable of handling the A380. That will rise to 14, out of a total of 60, by 2011. Now the stands can be used for any aircraft, so that in itself is no inference that BA is ordering them.

However, they article does say that analysts believe BA will want to add its name to an order book that currently stretches to 16 airlines and 159 firm orders.

One said: 'I think they will want to go for the A380. They may be holding out for the 747-800, but I think it is unlikely they will want to buy an airplane and risk being the only substantial customer for it. Their 747-400s are worth less in the market now than they are in their books.'

If not, who is going to use the stands? Or is it future planning when and if needed?

cheers
 
ehho
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:37 pm

Hmm... BA will order A380 because it has gates that can serve it? Typical A.net reasoning. As the Jewish saying goes: if I could live like that...

Quoting Scotron11 (Thread starter):
Their 747-400s are worth less in the market now than they are in their books.'

What on earth does that mean?
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
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Vasu
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:38 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Thread starter):
uture planning when and if needed

I reckon its a case of this. Sadly I get the feeling BA won't ever buy the A380  Sad
 
scotron11
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:40 pm

Quoting EHHO (Reply 1):

What on earth does that mean?

I guess BA values their 744's on their books at more than they would actually receive if they sold them.
 
scouseflyer
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:41 pm

They might have to if no-one else orders the 748!

In answer to the other question - isn't QF going to use a couple of those gates for it's A380s?
 
ehho
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:43 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 3):
I guess BA values their 744's on their books at more than they would actually receive if they sold them.

Thanks Scotron, now I get it. Interesting actually.. if BA opts for A380, 748 will be virtually doomed.
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
scotron11
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:46 pm

Quoting EHHO (Reply 1):

BA will order A380 because it has gates that can serve it? Typical A.net reasoning

I think it's a valid question. There is no A.net reasoning behind it. But why have 14 stands, which is 25% of your terminal capacity, capable of handling an aircraft currently not in the fleet?
 
manni
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:48 pm

BA has several routes that could support a daily A380, if not multiple times a day.
HKG, JKF, LAX, JNB, SIN, BOM, DEL come to mind. Once the A380 is proven in service and lives up to expectations we might be able to change the question 'yes or no' in 'when'.

I'm aware that BA operates exclusively Boeing widebodys at the moment, but this will not stop BA buying Airbus in the future if the aircraft suits her needs.

Willy Walsh has also said that the A380 can not replace the 744 one by one, but hasn't ruled out the A380 either. He said something along the lines 'we could probaply use a dozen/few', or 'we could probaply use it for a dozen/few routes'.
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CHRISBA777ER
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:49 pm

Quoting EHHO (Reply 5):
Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 3):
I guess BA values their 744's on their books at more than they would actually receive if they sold them.


Thanks Scotron, now I get it. Interesting actually.. if BA opts for A380, 748 will be virtually doomed.

Rubbish - not true at all.

I think BA would prefer to look at the A389 rather than the A388 - more mature platform, and BA are one of the few airlines in the world that could make it work. The 748 will roughly match the A388 in CASM, but the A389 will probably be significantly better again.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
zvezda
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:52 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 6):
why have 14 stands, which is 25% of your terminal capacity, capable of handling an aircraft currently not in the fleet?

As Scouseflyer pointed out, QF will be operating the WhaleJet to T5. Also, suppose BA decide to buy Y3 (supposing it is built). It would be expensive for BA if the stands at T5 couldn't accommodate Y3.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:56 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 7):
BA has several routes that could support a daily A380, if not multiple times a day.
HKG, JKF, LAX, JNB, SIN, BOM, DEL come to mind.

I'd add DXB, CAI, BKK, SYD, EZE and at least two of the major Chinese airports to that list by the time the A380 would be delivered.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
Johnny
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:01 pm

I think BA has no chance NOT to operate the A380, as the other two majors AF and LH have it on order.Not to mention VS...

They have lots of routes which justify a demand for it.For example LHR-JFK...and a lot of the very important commonwealth connections!


 Smile
 
scotron11
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:03 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):

Also, suppose BA decide to buy Y3 (supposing it is built). It would be expensive for BA if the stands at T5 couldn't accommodate Y3.

So we can put that one down to future planning. Are there any timescales on the Y3 project?
 
Johnny
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:08 pm

@ Zvezda

Do not talk about the replacement airplane of a yet to be developed airplane...(Y3 / B748I)

We are talking about airplanes for the next years, not decades...  Wink

Or would you like to talk about a B787-successor as well...

 Smile

In germany we say" Bleib auf dem Teppich... "

That means, be realistic...


Johnny  Smile
 
EI321
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:33 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 7):
I'm aware that BA operates exclusively Boeing widebodys at the moment, but this will not stop BA buying Airbus in the future if the aircraft suits her needs.

Maybe not relevant to this thread, but I know Walsh did prefer airbus longhaul while at EI.

Its a difficult case.

I still think BA might order 773s instead of 748s, and some A380s (say 25) for the larger routes. But it still could go either way.
 
ehho
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:42 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 8):
Rubbish - not true at all.

What's rubbish? That in absence of 748I orders BA's choice to opt for the A388/89 will mean serious problems for Boeing? That's what I meant in this case, not that BA doesn't have any use for the A380.
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
SapphireLHR
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:10 pm

As I understand it Qantas will not be operating from T5 but will take up the slots / stands that are presently being utilised by the BA Miami flights. This is the reason that these flights are going from T3 just to be able to keep them.
It is also the case that just because a stand is capable of taking a specific type of aircraft it does not mean that it HAS to operate from that stand. As the A380 is at this time the largest aircraft in current operation it is sensible to enable this and any other future aircarft of a similar size to be able to operate from T5 in the distant future. These stands are multi-role and multi-functional.
 
challiday
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:24 pm

Quote:
AIRLINE INDUSTRY INFORMATION-(C)1997-2005 M2 COMMUNICATIONS LTD

British Airways has said that it has no current plans to buy Airbus A380 aircraft.

The airline said that there are no immediate plans to acquire the superjumbo model, but it will be considered in long-term plans for its fleet. The airline has a fairly young fleet and does not need to acquire replacements, Reuters reported.
 
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jedward
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:33 pm

Quoting Johnny (Reply 14):
We are talking about airplanes for the next years, not decades...

While it may be prudent to limit the question, "Will BA order the A380" to the next few years, one would be shortsighted to apply a similar line of thought to the construction and design of a facility which could operate for decades.

Afterall, could not one argue that when T5 was being planned the designers thought in terms of decades over years? If so, why would the powers that be opt to potentially shortchange themselves of functionality throughout T5's life (whether it be a 388 in a few years or a 389 in a decade)?

[Edited 2006-07-13 15:02:13]
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CHRISBA777ER
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:39 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 8):
if BA opts for A380, 748 will be virtually doomed



Quoting EHHO (Reply 16):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 8):
Rubbish - not true at all.

What's rubbish? That in absence of 748I orders BA's choice to opt for the A388/89 will mean serious problems for Boeing? That's what I meant in this case, not that BA doesn't have any use for the A380.

If BA go for the A380, then the 748I will *NOT* be virtually doomed.

Look at the list of customers that could go either way if they decide they want a VLAT right now:

Iberia, All Nippon, Japan Airlines, Cathay, South African, Asiana, Air New Zealand, EVA Air, China Airlines, KLM, United, PIA, Air India, Northwest, Air Canada, China Southern, Saudi Arabian, China Eastern...

Hardly slim pickings! Granted, the BA order will be important, but not life threatening to the 748 programme. Bear in mind also that some airlines may even operate both types if some of the Boeing cheerleaders on here are to be believed.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
richardw
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:00 pm

I think Willie Walsh has thought of all kinds of possible deals on all types of aircraft from either A or B at all sorts of prices, but he will have to wait for the right time for BA and so will we.
 
wrighbrothers
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:17 pm

As I always say, I don't think BA will order the A-380, atleast for a while yet, however, they have more important things to do and sort out, than to order a bunch of new aircrafts.
The pilots are saying they will strike if they don't get what they want, I doubt ordering a whole round of new aircrafts will please them, the airline still has debts to pay off, and not forgeting the pension problem.
Also, don't forget, that the 744's are not THAT old, they won't replace them, they are more likely to order the 787 before the A380.

Wrighbrothers
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Spruit
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:33 pm

I believe from an article in Flight International that BA are considering both options (Airbus and Boeing) and are looking to make a decision soon!

But isn't it now the case that without some dropouts BA would be unable to get their hands on an A380 until at least 2010?

I wonder what the Boeing delivery slots for a BA order would be? And if BA choose Boeing over Airbus products what hoops the European manufacturer would jump through to make the Airbus product line more attractive?

Spru!
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StarGoldLHR
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:02 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 7):
HKG, JKF, LAX, JNB, SIN, BOM, DEL

HKG - Too much market saturation in the future, why risk it when if demand does peak 2x777s could meet it.

JFK - Agreed some A380s could be viable on this route, but if Bermuda II opens up LHR I would suspect BA will be sent reeling if DL / NW open up a bit more, and I suspect UA may increase again with an EWR.

LAX - No, not now, not ever ever.

JNB - Possibly, this is a destination of the future.

SIN - With all the competition on the 1 stop SYD route from the A380 when EK/MX/SQ/TG all start I think BA will contract this to a 777 and expand the route to Auckland instead,
I could even Imagine BA pulling out of SYD altogether and codesharing with Qantas.

Other than that they make have to go head on and remain in partnership with Qantas in which case they would look poor operating an elderly 747 when Qantas runs an A380 on a shared route.

BOM / DEL - I think this will become a 777 route.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 10):
DXB, CAI, BKK, SYD, EZE

DXB - Too much competition for a A380 when EK gets going
CAI- Why isnt this a A320 currently ?
SYD / BKK - see my thoughts on Australia
EZE - 777 has to be, not that many Brits goto Argentina.

I think BA's future is in the 777 and not to risk the A380 on market demand, remember BA is more expensive, and EK is going to push prices down further. If demand for a 777 is not enough BA could always add a second 777 / 787 on a route.

If demand isnt enough on an A380.. you lose money. That simple.
If demand increases for an A380.. it's a much bigger jump to add a second A380 ! or expensive to introduce another type.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
Iberia, All Nippon, Japan Airlines, Cathay, South African, Asiana, Air New Zealand, EVA Air, China Airlines, KLM, United, PIA, Air India, Northwest, Air Canada, China Southern, Saudi Arabian, China Eastern

I dont think United / NW / AC will order the A380.. what routes would fill this that there is limited competition on ? Most US routes (inc intl) have too much competition to risk an A380 and have a competitor come in and offer a cut price route with a 787 or 2... even if you move routes it they would follow you and win on overall cost every time.

The 787 is a good plane for a mass market competition route and when demand falls stick it on some interesting new routes... A Bit like CO did with the 757... too much competition move it to BRS / NCL to US routes !
So far in 2008 45 flights and Gold already. JFK, IAD, LGA, SIN, HKG, NRT, AKL, PPT, LAX still to book ! Home Airport LCY
 
wrighbrothers
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:11 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
Iberia,

Don't think so

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
United

No

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
Northwest, Air Canada

No

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
China Southern

Maybe

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
China Eastern...

Maybe

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 23):
CAI- Why isnt this a A320 currently ?

Cairo is served by a 777.

These dreams are great, but most of them never come true, lots of the big carriers aren't in a buying mood, or have just ordered other aircrafts.
IMHO, the A380 is perhaps just a wee bit too ahead of its time.

Wrighty
Always stand up for what is right, even if it means standing alone..
 
pavlin
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:20 pm

The BA will order A380 if it will order large plane.... self explainatory (because 747 won't be so big anymore when A380 shows up.
 
swissy
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:33 pm

If you look at the BA route network you can see very well there will be some 380's down the road.

What do you think is more expensive to operate 4 T7 or 2 380???? Do not forget on some of these routes the cargo volume is insane....... so do not assume because the load factor is "only" 70% they are not making any money.

Cheers,
 
ARGinLON
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:46 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 10):
I'd add DXB, CAI, BKK, SYD, EZE and at least two of the major Chinese airports to that list by the time the A380 would be delivered.

EZE on a A380? I guess you made a mistake here....The route is not even served non-stop.....
 
EI321
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:48 pm

All of the airlines that have ordered the A380 to date have smaller 744 fleets than BA, yet they want an aircraft the size of the A380 in their fleet.

LHR is, and will remain for the forseeable future the most important l/h hub there is. Its congestion problem will only go in one direction and thats not down.

BA have an unusually large proportion of biz/1st seats and intend to expand this.

BA tend to wait until an aircraft is in service until ordering.

Is this not a no-brainer for BA?
 
Ken777
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:53 pm

I think that there is a lot of dust to settle before BA will be able to see where they want to go.

Lots of issues to be resolved on both the 380 and the 748i and waiting a while will not hurt BA at all.

Lots of issues on in-house financials that also have to be addressed before BA can determine how far they want to go with new planes.

While BA might eventually order the 380 I seem to remember BA saying that they were pushing Boeing to come up with a new 747. I think BA saw a need and, unless there have been some dramatic changes, I believe that they will eventually follow through on addressing those needs. The 380 will, in my opinion, be ordered only if BA sees a profitable long term opportunity that cannot be addressed with other planes in the fleet.
 
cedarjet
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:02 am

BA will definitely add A380s. It's 'when' not 'if'. NY, LA, MIA, NRT, JNB, MEX, SFO, IAD, maybe BOS, LOS, maybe SIN/BKK/SYD. Loads of routes need the capacity - look at JFK, eight flights a day, almost all 747s. They advertise it as offering lots of frequency but lots of freq on longhaul isn't that useful to pax, unless you have the strength of superman you're not going to do much else on the day or travel unless maybe you get a 6pm from LHR, in which case you have some of the day free. At the arrival end, even if you fly J/F class, you're basically toast. On the way home the freq is even less useful, cos other than the two (!) daytrippers (which fly wingtip to wingtip anyway), the other six flights leave in a five hour time slot, in fact a small delay with catering on one flight means the one after it taxis out first etc. The reason they have so many flights is because of the demand for seats, not because travellers demand the choice of a 1955 or the 2030 from Kennedy to Heathrow.

(One other thing: BA may be holding off in case the phenomenon of "peak oil" really kicks in - if oil is $200+ a barrel, they'd be better off replacing their 747s with a dozen 767-200ERs.)
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
74472
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:20 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 11):
They have lots of routes which justify a demand for it.For example LHR-JFK...and a lot of the very important commonwealth connections!

I think JFK for BA is about frequency and not capacity.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
As Scouseflyer pointed out, QF will be operating the WhaleJet to T5

BA and QF are going to operate to Australia out of T3.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 23):

HKG - Too much market saturation in the future, why risk it when if demand does peak 2x777s could meet it.

2x777s compared to to 3x744 now. I don't think so.

JFK - Agreed some A380s could be viable on this route, but if Bermuda II opens up LHR I would suspect BA will be sent reeling if DL / NW open up a bit more, and I suspect UA may increase again with an EWR.

Frequency is the issue here.

LAX - No, not now, not ever ever.

LAX is a big A380 possibility. Currently 3x744 in the summer.

JNB - Possibly, this is a destination of the future.

Would be a definate for the A380.

SIN - With all the competition on the 1 stop SYD route from the A380 when EK/MX/SQ/TG all start I think BA will contract this to a 777 and expand the route to Auckland instead,
I could even Imagine BA pulling out of SYD altogether and codesharing with Qantas.

It's already 777 for the winter. BA will never pull out of Sydney.

BOM / DEL - I think this will become a 777 route.

If BA are going to send A380's anywhere it wil be to India.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:23 am

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 23):
EZE - 777 has to be, not that many Brits goto Argentina.



Quoting ARGinLON (Reply 27):
EZE on a A380? I guess you made a mistake here....The route is not even served non-stop.....

My bad - i meant Rio de Janeiro.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:24 am

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 23):
CAI- Why isnt this a A320 currently ?

Horus is the fella to ask but IIRC its a daily 744.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
Tom12
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:26 am

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 4):
They might have to if no-one else orders the 748!

I think they will just go for the 773 instead of the A380.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 29):
While BA might eventually order the 380 I seem to remember BA saying that they were pushing Boeing to come up with a new 747. I think BA saw a need and, unless there have been some dramatic changes, I believe that they will eventually follow through on addressing those needs. The 380 will, in my opinion, be ordered only if BA sees a profitable long term opportunity that cannot be addressed with other planes in the fleet.

Well said! ..... Judging by BA's history with the 747, i think they would much rater stick to it than venture over Airbus' way for the A380.

Would be nice to see the A380 in the BA colors though.

A question, Would BA do maintenance on the A380 for QF or something, just when they are in OneWorld together. Wouldn't that increase the probability of them buying the 380??


Tom
"Per noctem volamus" - Royal Air Force Bomber Squadron IX
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:26 am

Quoting Wrighbrothers (Reply 24):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
Iberia,

Don't think so

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
United

No

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
Northwest, Air Canada

No

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
China Southern

Maybe

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 19):
China Eastern...

Maybe

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 23):
CAI- Why isnt this a A320 currently ?

Cairo is served by a 777.

These dreams are great, but most of them never come true, lots of the big carriers aren't in a buying mood, or have just ordered other aircrafts.
IMHO, the A380 is perhaps just a wee bit too ahead of its time.

Wrighty

Hear what you are saying mate, but my point was that there a lot of airlines that could entertain the idea of something larger than a 744 at some stage. I agree with you on all counts in terms of how likely they are to actually order, but the point was possible MARKET not probable ORDERS.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:28 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 28):
All of the airlines that have ordered the A380 to date have smaller 744 fleets than BA, yet they want an aircraft the size of the A380 in their fleet.

LHR is, and will remain for the forseeable future the most important l/h hub there is. Its congestion problem will only go in one direction and thats not down.

BA have an unusually large proportion of biz/1st seats and intend to expand this.

BA tend to wait until an aircraft is in service until ordering.

Is this not a no-brainer for BA?

Totally agree. Spot on analysis.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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STT757
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:38 am

BA has the slots to operate multiple frequencies, something VS does not which is why BA has way more flights to NYC, LAX, ORD etc from LHR than VS.

I think a combination of 777-300ERs and 747-8 will replace their large 747-400 fleet, you can do more with 777-300ERs and 747-8s than the A380.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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RayChuang
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:45 am

British Airways is NOT likely to order the A380-800.

The reason is simple: BA controls a large fraction of the landing slots at London Heathrow (LHR). This means BA can juggle around landing slot allocations at its own home airport to increase or decrease capacity to certain destinations depending on demand. This is also the main reason why Japan Airlines (JL) will not order the A388, since JL controls a large fraction of the landing slots at Tokyo Narita (NRT).
 
PADSpot
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RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:54 am

Quoting EHHO (Reply 5):
if BA opts for A380, 748 will be virtually doomed.

Certainly not. There is a huge gap between the A346 and the A388 in which the B748 neatly fits. It's the same wonderful market for Boeing as the A388 is for Airbus: No Competition.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 8):
The 748 will roughly match the A388 in CASM, but the A389 will probably be significantly better again.

The A389 wil have a little less than 600 seats in airline configuration, which you have to fill. Low cost per available seat mile (CASM) don't help your cash flow if half the plane is empty ...

Quoting Johnny (Reply 11):
I think BA has no chance NOT to operate the A380, as the other two majors AF and LH have it on order.Not to mention VS...

That's too simple. Depending on the route an airline can have a capacity-orientated strategy or a frequency-oriented one. The latter doesn't require large airplanes; as long as slots are available to just add a frequency. An even if BA has to go for capacity they could just decide to replace some 777 with (potential) 748s and therewith add a lot of capacity withoud needing a A388. But one could say that BA has always been more fond of adding frequencies than AF or LH.
 
comet4b
Posts: 59
Joined: Sun Jun 18, 2006 2:04 am

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:31 am

Whether BA will or will not buy the 380 will depend on whether or not a sound business case can justify it's purchase.I do not believe BA management are guided by the "we must have the latest toy" thinking.
 
GDB
Posts: 12680
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:43 am

No descision has been made, or will be made for some time yet.

BA has not, in public, ruled the A380 in or out , whatever press quotes are made here.

As an article in this week's Flight points out, BA have had an on/off opinion of aircraft in this class.
Had the B747-600X, (550 seats) not been cancelled in 1997, BA would have likely ordered it.
Then a change of emphasis, towards 777's.
BA's head of planning told Flight that while 747-400's won't be replaced one for one, by A380 or 747-8, you cannot replace the fleet with just 777's.
So some aircraft in the large class will be needed.

If 2010 is the soonest BA could get an A380, that is unlikely to be a decider, since the requirement is not urgent.

So it seems either 747-8 or A380, will at some time be ordered.
But no choice has been made, so the press or anyone on here, including me, do not know anything different.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:44 am

Here is something to note:

"He (BA-Planning Director Robert Boyle )also revealed it "very much pushed Boeing to produce the 747-8." "

source:atwonline.com

also...

"Boeing is coming under growing pressure to boost capacity on the 747-8 Intercontinental by two seat rows as airlines start to look at it as a possible alternative to the A380 rather than a model positioned between the 365-seat 777-300ER and 555-seat A380. Increasing the length of the dash 8 to that of the 747-8F adds 20 seats. Moving galley carts into the overhead space would add another 30, lifting seating capacity to 500 in the standard Boeing configuration compared to 416 for the 747-400 using the same rules. Currently the passenger variant has a 3.6-m. stretch while the freighter is stretched by 5.6 m."

source:atwonline.com


This increase would be perfect for BA's incremental growth strategy....and it would fit perfectly within their fleet structure....

my guess: 747-8I's...
"Up the Irons!"
 
A350
Posts: 1020
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:40 am

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:46 am

Since BA is obviously not in a hurry, there is also the option to go for the A380-900. Don't forget that it will show a further substantial drop in seat mile costs over the A380-800. Furthermore, we have to expect improvements on the engines in the next years. Altogether, it might be a very smart move to wait a couple of years more.

A350
 
BA787
Posts: 2381
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 9:40 pm

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:31 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
As Scouseflyer pointed out, QF will be operating the WhaleJet to T5. Also, suppose BA decide to buy Y3 (supposing it is built). It would be expensive for BA if the stands at T5 couldn't accommodate Y3.

According to other threads, BA will be the exclusive carrier at T5 and QF and its other oneworld partners are in T3 with the T3 A380 PIER

Quoting EI321 (Reply 14):
still think BA might order 773s instead of 748s, and some A380s (say 25) for the larger routes. But it still could go either way.

I think you've hit it. I think BA will order maybe 20-30 777-300ER (five or six of those would be 200LRs) and 20 or so A380s

Maybe they will leave the A380 and the 748 alone and go for a A320,787,777 fleet. I think this would work well.

Someone said the above and I have a feeling they may be right.

I still think we are going to get a shock when BA makes their next order!

Tom
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2003
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:14 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 28):
Is this not a no-brainer for BA?

Nope. The A380 only makes sense in the most extreme of artificially constrained airports. Obviously the fewer slots you have into LHR, the more artificially constrained the market is. Hence it makes sense for VS, but not BA which has plenty of slots and is over exposed at Heathrow, not underexposes.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:40 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 8):
The 748 will roughly match the A388 in CASM, but the A389 will probably be significantly better again.

You're free to believe whatever you like, however, there is no rational basis for believing the WhaleJet can come close to the SuperJumbo in CASM. Low CASM derives from there forms of efficiency:
a) structural efficiency,
b) aerodynamic efficiency, and
c) propulsion efficiency.

The B747-8I SuperJumbo will beat the WhaleJet decisively in both structural efficiency and propulsion efficiency. Aerodynamic efficiency will be similar. The SuperJumbo has an additional advantage (in CASM, not in passenger comfort) over the WhaleJet in that both can accommodate 10 abreast Y seating but not 11 abreast (I was earlier wrong in thinking the WhaleJet could accommodate 11 abreast) but the WhaleJet uses more cabin floor area to do so. There is no possible way for them to have similar CASM given similar seating layouts.

A hypothetical stretched WhaleJet might be able to match the SuperJumbo in CASM. Even if the former falls short, it would at least be close to the SuperJumbo in CASM, however, when two models having sufficient range are similar in CASM, airlines generally choose the smaller one to increase yields and reduce market risk.

Quoting Scotron11 (Reply 12):
Are there any timescales on the Y3 project?

The rough expectation is Y3 would launch about 2012, first flight about 2015, and EIS about 2016 -- if it happens at all. Not too far out for consideration in planning terminals at large airports like LHR.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 13):
Do not talk about the replacement airplane of a yet to be developed airplane...(Y3 / B748I)

Please forgive me for refuting you.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 13):
Or would you like to talk about a B787-successor as well...

Sure, why not? It could be interesting.

Quoting A350 (Reply 43):
there is also the option to go for the A380-900.

No, there is no such aircraft. One might or might not someday be developed. No one will risk their own money (risking someone else's money is always possible, no matter how absurd the idea) stretching the WhaleJet if it has not recouped its already sunk development costs.
 
ba286
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:59 pm

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:50 am

At the moment the 777-300ER looks more realistic than either the A380 or the 747-800. BA operates a long haul fleet of exclusively Boeing jets, i dont think they would change. Going with the 773 would save them big money maintenance wise.
BA286
E190 A318 A319 A320 A343 ATR42 717 732 733 734 735 737 738 744 752 772 DC-10 MD-11
 
Adria
Posts: 781
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2000 7:53 am

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:57 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 38):
This is also the main reason why Japan Airlines (JL) will not order the A388, since JL controls a large fraction of the landing slots at Tokyo Narita (NRT).

JAL and Airbus? This won't happen to soon, since it is not a Boeing

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):
You're free to believe whatever you like, however, there is no rational basis for believing the WhaleJet can come close to the SuperJumbo in CASM. Low CASM derives from there forms of efficiency:
a) structural efficiency,
b) aerodynamic efficiency, and
c) propulsion efficiency.

The B747-8I SuperJumbo will beat the WhaleJet decisively in both structural efficiency and propulsion efficiency. Aerodynamic efficiency will be similar. The SuperJumbo has an additional advantage (in CASM, not in passenger comfort) over the WhaleJet in that both can accommodate 10 abreast Y seating but not 11 abreast (I was earlier wrong in thinking the WhaleJet could accommodate 11 abreast) but the WhaleJet uses more cabin floor area to do so. There is no possible way for them to have similar CASM given similar seating layouts.

A hypothetical stretched WhaleJet might be able to match the SuperJumbo in CASM. Even if the former falls short, it would at least be close to the SuperJumbo in CASM, however, when two models having sufficient range are similar in CASM, airlines generally choose the smaller one to increase yields and reduce market risk.

I missed your CASM posts... to be fair you should always mention that this is your personal "analysis" that you have done it on your OWN. Otherwise people will think that this is coming from some reliable source.
 
Scotland1979
Crew
Posts: 331
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 3:19 am

RE: BA & The A380: Yes Or No?

Fri Jul 14, 2006 5:07 am

Sure... I would love to see BA has A380s as well as other airlines. How about Westjet? Sure I would love to see Westjet A380s Why not!!

Frank YXU
Jesus said "I am the Way and the Truth and the Life. No one comes to the Father except through Me" - John 14:6

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