okelleynyc
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Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:06 pm

http://business.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=1027452006

Fair Use Excerpt

Quote:
"They are definitely looking at doing three," one industry source said, adding that the new planes were likely to be named the A350-800, A350-900 and A350-1,000. There was a chance Airbus could go with the name A370, he added.

A second source confirmed the story, saying: "It is designed to take on both the 787 and triple-7."

A spokesman for Airbus declined to comment on specifics, but said Airbus' chief executive would provide an update at the year's biggest air show next week: "Christian Streiff will be responding to feedback from customers received over recent months on Monday."

Interesting! Guess we'll hear more on Monday.
Just give me my Vario, my Ozone Mojo and a gorgeous day of soaring.
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:18 pm

Quoting Okelleynyc (Thread starter):
one industry source said



Quoting Okelleynyc (Thread starter):
A second source confirmed the story

Industry sources could easily mean 'A.net posters' - after all, those two sources basically said PRECISELY what people have discussed on here as nothing more than educated guesses.

Unless they put their name to the quotes, I generally discount what they have to say.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:40 pm

If it isn't composite, or very significantly lighter and much more fuel efficient than the airplanes it is designed to replace, it will not fly with the customer base. They had better do this right as all of their corporate credibility is on the line. And it had better be an honest improvement, not manipulating with numbers of seats, etc.
One Nation Under God
 
katekebo
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:00 am

I have two comments / questions:

- Apparently Airbus is not thinking that an A300 replacement is necessary, and consequently the B787-3 is not a threat. Maybe they believe that on shorter routes smaller airplanes with increased frequency can do the job - this is in contradiction with their claim that large hub airports are slot-constrained - the hubs that are full are contrained because of small airplanes (which reprsent 80 or 90 of the flights) and not large, long range airplanes.

- In order to take on the B777-300ER they need new, more efficient engines in the 100+ klb range - are such engines being developed? In order to beat the B777, the A3?0 needs to:
a) have new more efficient engines
b) be lighter (and hence use new materials and manufacturing techniques)
c) Airbus needs to do something that will prevent Boeing from being able to use the new engines on the B777 and B787-10
 
airlineaddict
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:30 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 3):
c) Airbus needs to do something that will prevent Boeing from being able to use the new engines on the B777 and B787-10

That's a very good point. If Airbus could get a leg up with engines, that would effectively lock out Boeing... how to make that happen is the issue. One way would be for Airbus to provide the seed money to develop the engine.
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:39 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 3):
- In order to take on the B777-300ER they need new, more efficient engines in the 100+ klb range - are such engines being developed? In order to beat the B777, the A3?0 needs to:

They don't need to be that powerful. The plane would, ostensibly, be both lighter and more fuel efficient.

N
 
dutchjet
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:47 am

If Airbus is going to develop three airplanes to take on the 787/777....my guess is tha the A358 will be targeted at the 788 and 789, the A359 will be targeted at the 772/787-10 and the largest variant being the A350-1000 will be aimed at the 773ER. Thats a huge range.....its going to be interesting to see what Airbus has in mind and if it can come up with one airplane that can cover such a large market.

Reading between the lines, if these plans are correct, will that mean the A350 family will effectively replace the A330/A340/A340NG family at Airbus. The original A350 was going to slot inbetween the A330 and A340NG families.......this new expanded A350 family seems to be a replacment for the entire Airbus widebody family (except the A380, of course)....although a small market for the A332 is a possibility.

It will be interesting.
 
katekebo
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:58 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 6):
They don't need to be that powerful. The plane would, ostensibly, be both lighter and more fuel efficient.

Can you please explain how Airbus can make an airplane with similar payload and range as the B777-300ER with sugnificantly lower empty airframe weight? Fuel efficiency comes from three sources:

- engines - both manufacturers are using the same suppliers and have access to the same technology

- airframe weight - traditionally Boeing has been more weight-efficient than Airbus (B777 vs. A340 for example), and they are stretching this advantage to a new level with all-composite B787.

- aerodynamics - again, about the same for both manufacturers.

So your statement is a nice wish, but please tell us HOW it can be done? If the A3?0 will have similar payload and range as the B777-300ER, it will consequently be heavier than the B787 and need bigger engines. Or it will use the same engines as the B787 and therefore have less range and payload than the B777 - no miracles here.

Airbus can not make an airplane of the size, payload and range of the B777-300ER with B787-size engines.

[Edited 2006-07-14 18:02:02]
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:03 am

All signs point to Rolls offering an engine family up to 95k for even the A370-1000.

It will be light enough compared to the 777-300ER to allow them to chop that much thrust, clearly, or it wouldn't be worth building.

N
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:08 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 3):
Apparently Airbus is not thinking that an A300 replacement is necessary...Maybe they believe that on shorter routes smaller airplanes with increased frequency can do the job - this is in contradiction with their claim that large hub airports are slot-constrained - the hubs that are full are contrained because of small airplanes (which reprsent 80 or 90 of the flights) and not large, long range airplanes.

But if Airbus believes that A380s will replace 747s on a one-to-one basis, then those A380s will be able to bring ~30% more people into the hubs without impacting the number of smaller planes needed to get them out to the spokes.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 7):
If Airbus is going to develop three airplanes to take on the 787/777....my guess is tha the A358 will be targeted at the 788 and 789, the A359 will be targeted at the 772/787-10 and the largest variant being the A350-1000 will be aimed at the 773ER. Thats a huge range...its going to be interesting to see what Airbus has in mind and if it can come up with one airplane that can cover such a large market.

Agreed. Such a range might very well require some tradeoffs at the bottom or top end. Still, a good deal of the market might very well be in the 772-range, so optimizing your family for that market seems wisest (since 773s will be still somewhat "new" and the 787-8/787-9 are going to take a good chunk of the 767/A330 replacement market due to earlier EIS).

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 7):
Reading between the lines, if these plans are correct, will that mean the A350 family will effectively replace the A330/A340/A340NG family at Airbus.

Which makes sense, as that is where Airbus is currently weakest now against both existing (777) and planned (787) Boeing products.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 6):
They don't need to be that powerful. The plane would, ostensibly, be both lighter and more fuel efficient.

As Katekebo notes above, as the A350-1000 will share it's design with a much smaller plane (the A350-800), what design tradeoffs will Airbus need to make?

Assuming the A350-900 is the baseline, the A350-1000 is to the A350-800 what the A340-600 is to the A340-300. That is not a bad thing, in and of itself, but it will impact the performance of the plane moreso then if Airbus went with the A330NG/A350 and a seperate A370 frame.

And what of the A350-800? It would be the equivalent of the 777-100, which Boeing and it's customers determined was not economically viable. If the A350-900 is the baseline plane, sized against the 777-200, then the A350-800 could be at a disadvantage to the 767-400, to say nothing of the A330-300, 787-8, and 787-9.

And if the A350-800 is the baseline, then the A350-1000 becomes an extreme stretch to meet the capacity needs. And that means even more bracing and structure then if the A350-900 was the baseline. Airbus needs to be careful they don't have a repeat of the A340-600 which needed a good deal of structure to support the stretch which raised OEW and lowered payload and range.

[Edited 2006-07-14 18:15:01]
 
LY777
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:11 am

Frm where will Airbus have money to develop 3 new planes?
Flown:A3B2,A320,A321,A332,A343,A388,717,727,732,734,735,738,73W,742/744/748,752,762/2ER/763/3ER,772/77E/773/77W,D8,D10,L
 
killjoy
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:11 am

So wait, let me get this straight, an airplane that's supposed to be better than the 787 has the following features:

-It's supposed to be slightly wider than the 787.
-Currently available 2-engine solutions are slightly underpowered.
-The length used to go from medium to large, but now a huge version is planned.

Airbus may just... have invented the best aircraft of all time.


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gigneil
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:20 am

Quoting LY777 (Reply 11):
Frm where will Airbus have money to develop 3 new planes?

Why do people always ask this?

Maybe from their MASSIVE profits and cash flow?

N
 
katekebo
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:21 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 9):
All signs point to Rolls offering an engine family up to 95k for even the A370-1000.

It will be light enough compared to the 777-300ER to allow them to chop that much thrust, clearly, or it wouldn't be worth building.

OK, so here we go againg. How can Airbus make an airplane with similar payload and range as the B777-300ER with engines that are nearly 20% smaller?

Given that both manufacturers have access to the same powerplants, the only way that the A3?0 can be a "killer" to the B777 is by making the airframe substantially lighter. Does Al-Li offer enough advantage?
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:25 am

As I've said repeatedly, it will be both lighter and the engines will be more fuel efficient.

You make the frame 20% lighter (easy to do with an all new program) and the engines 10% more efficient (8 is probably more reasonable) and you calculate the lower quantity of fuel required you have no problem running such a plane on 95,000 lbf engines.

Al-Li is as light as composites, no problem. The issue thus far has been the existing structure. An all new structure, conceivably, would resolve that issue.

Since we don't know what the plane will be made of, we can't really have this discussion.

N
 
katekebo
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:41 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 15):
Maybe from their MASSIVE profits and cash flow?

Care to remember BAE buy-out and the $2b profit gap due to A380 delays? I don't think Airbus/EADS look particularly strong from cashflow standpoint over the next 3 years

Quoting LY777 (Reply 11):
Frm where will Airbus have money to develop 3 new planes?

Your taxes and social security money.
 
travelin man
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:42 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 15):
Frm where will Airbus have money to develop 3 new planes?

Why do people always ask this?

Maybe from their MASSIVE profits and cash flow?

N

Good. That means Airbus will not require government loans, and that will help everyone avoid a nasty trade war.
 
katekebo
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:48 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 17):
You make the frame 20% lighter (easy to do with an all new program) and the engines 10% more efficient

LMAO.
 
Outlier
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 1:54 am

Its not really 3 planes to take on 1 is it? Its one platform and its derivatives.
 
AirbusA6
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 2:02 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 16):
Given that both manufacturers have access to the same powerplants

RR isn't allowed on the 773ER (or rather on any 777s above certain MTOW?), so any engine it might develop can't be used by Boeing, unless the 773ER is slimmed down. And as the A346 is effectively dead it needs a platform in this sector badly.

Will GE bother to produce a rival engine for any A350-1000 variants when it already has the lucrative 773ER and 747-8 business?
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
firennice
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:28 am

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 19):
Good. That means Airbus will not require government loans, and that will help everyone avoid a nasty trade war.

Ahhhh fantasy land. Isn't it great.

Massive profits have to pay off massive debt to develop a/c and design new innovative ways to do things. Or else you stick with the old and proven and sell old technology that is cheap. **poof** there go the massive profits. Then they vanish.

You have to spend a lot of money, and pay shareholders, and open and upgrade facilities. etc etc etc
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:31 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 17):
As I've said repeatedly, it will be both lighter and the engines will be more fuel efficient.

I guess it depends on how "small" the A350-800 is. If it's more like the current A350-900, then yes, they probably can make the new A350-900 lighter then the current 777-200 (since the new A350-800 will be sized like the A333 and 764ER) and the new A350-1000 will be lighter then the 777-300. I'm not sure it will be 20%, though.

Quote:
Al-Li is as light as composites, no problem. The issue thus far has been the existing structure. An all new structure, conceivably, would resolve that issue.

It may be for Airbus design philosophies, but it does not seem to be for Boeing design philosophies. So while an Al-Li A359 and A35G might be lighter then an Al 772 and 773, it will probably not be lighter then a CFRP 772 (the 787-10) and CFRP 773 (Y3).

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 22):
RR isn't allowed on the 773ER (or rather on any 777s above certain MTOW?), so any engine it might develop can't be used by Boeing, unless the 773ER is slimmed down.

It could, however, possibly be used on the 772 and the 787-10, both of which will compete with the new A350-900.

Quote:
Will GE bother to produce a rival engine for any A350-1000 variants when it already has the lucrative 773ER and 747-8 business?

If the A350-1000 is compelling enough, and doesn't arrive at the end of the purchasing window of 777-300ER type equipment, then I expect GE will feel they have little choice.
 
rpaillard
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:34 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 18):
Your taxes and social security money

Hum, intersting statement. Never ever heard that Airbus could cut my healthcare programm to build aircraft. So it's almost impossible to talk about Airbus without this kind of misinformation?

Regards,
Raphael
FLY SKYTEAM JETS
 
707lvr
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:34 am

I'm really trying to evaluate this idea fairly, but can you really launch an entire generation of airplanes - starting with three simultaneously - with no thought to the megabillions of cost involved, in the space of a couple of weeks with with the company in complete turmoil, and have not one comment say "WHOA?"
 
Ken777
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:49 am

Is it possible that Airbus will go with two tube sizes, like Boeing did with the 757/767 program?

When looking at the target markets I tend to consider the new planes addressing everything from the smallest 330 to (at least) the mid-range 777. That seems to be a wide range for a non-engineer.

Wouldn't it be more efficient to stay with the R&D they have already done on the 350, but direct efforts into improving the economics - even if it means a slightly larger tube? That seems to be the most attractive approach (for the airlines, at least) to competing at the lower end of the market. For the 777 competitor the tube is going to need to be very similar, but that might allow Airbus to offer something that can have a larger capacity than the 777 can (at least for now) offer. Might even nick some potential 748i sales.

Overall this is very good news. I enjoy it when A&B go after each other with great planes and hope this will be the case again starting next week.
 
CptGermany
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:05 am

Quoting Outlier (Reply 21):
Its not really 3 planes to take on 1 is it? Its one platform and its derivatives.

It will be the same deal as with the A340/330: Same airframe components (e.g. fuselage, wings etc), but different market niche.

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 19):
Good. That means Airbus will not require government loans, and that will help everyone avoid a nasty trade war.

Hey Travelin man, just FYI, in the current political situation, the US needs some friends over in Europe (i.e. see Bush's visit in Germany to meet with Bundeskanzlerin Merkel this past week). So threatening with trade wars would be highly inappropriate and counterproductive for the overall political interests of the U.S. In other words, Boeing would just have to deal with it, get down to work and build some good competition aircraft, which I am certain they will be able to do if necessary.  thumbsup 
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:05 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 6):
They don't need to be that powerful. The plane would, ostensibly, be both lighter and more fuel efficient.

N

Not that much lighter.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 17):
As I've said repeatedly, it will be both lighter and the engines will be more fuel efficient.

You make the frame 20% lighter (easy to do with an all new program) and the engines 10% more efficient (8 is probably more reasonable) and you calculate the lower quantity of fuel required you have no problem running such a plane on 95,000 lbf engines.

Al-Li is as light as composites, no problem. The issue thus far has been the existing structure. An all new structure, conceivably, would resolve that issue.

Since we don't know what the plane will be made of, we can't really have this discussion.

N

Where do you get the ridiculous idea that Al-Li and composites will make the frame 20% lighter? Remeber 60% of the current A350 will be composed of "advanced materials" only 23% of which are Al-Li. These advanced materials give a 5-20% weight savings, so if all the "advanced materials" parts got 20% savings (far from the truth), it's still only a 12% total savings for the total frame. Not to mention the extra allowances since we're dealing with newer materials here. Airbus would be lucky if the current A350 was more than 5% lighter than an equivalent sized A330. 5% from the frame, 10% from the engines makes it a much more efficient airplane than the A330, but to assume 20% as "easy" with a clean sheet design is just way off base.

The 787 was significantly lighter than an equivalent sized A350. Yet the A350 had 10% more "advanced materials". Why you ask? In short, single-piece barrel sections. If Airbus is going to compete against the 77W with a twin, they're going to need 105k+ thrust engines.
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:13 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 28):
Is it possible that Airbus will go with two tube sizes, like Boeing did with the 757/767 program?

When looking at the target markets I tend to consider the new planes addressing everything from the smallest 330 to (at least) the mid-range 777. That seems to be a wide range for a non-engineer.

Wouldn't it be more efficient to stay with the R&D they have already done on the 350, but direct efforts into improving the economics - even if it means a slightly larger tube? That seems to be the most attractive approach (for the airlines, at least) to competing at the lower end of the market. For the 777 competitor the tube is going to need to be very similar, but that might allow Airbus to offer something that can have a larger capacity than the 777 can (at least for now) offer. Might even nick some potential 748i sales.

I think the two fuselage width idea is the best way for Airbus to go at this point, assuming the want to tackle both the 777 and 787. Structurally it's difficult to have many "common" parts between two different fuselage airplanes, but many of the systems can be very similar (i.e. 757/767). The fuselage widths will have to be "close", and since they're both twins, A might be able to have the share the same type rating. I could see the current A350 staying as an 8Y option, and Airbus building a larger 10Y plane and calling it the A370. The A370 however might be only slightly more efficient than the 77W (due to similar engines) and would match up against the 747 quite well.
 
katekebo
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:25 am

Quoting Rpaillard (Reply 26):
this kind of misinformation

Not your health insurance, but haven't you heard that certain EU governments are considering rising the retirement age because of the budget "hole" in the social security spending? On one hand, unemployment is on the rise and not enough new jobs are created, and on the other side, there are not enough people working to provide tax income to pay for the retirement pensions, health benefits, free education and unemployment benefits. Without substantial cuts to the social wellfare spending EU economy will burst in a couple decades.
 
CptGermany
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 32):
Without substantial cuts to the social wellfare spending EU economy will burst in a couple decades.

Katekebo, this statement is true. However, I do not see the connection to the government loans Airbus receives for new aircraft projects. If the governements do not have the money, they wouldn't give it to Airbus. Besides, contrary to public believe, especially here on a.net, Airbus does repay these government loans. In addition, it is in the interest of European governments to help financing these projects because they creat jobs. For instance in Hamburg, the A380 program has created more than 2500 new jobs directly related to the program, and many more that are indirectly related to the program. Besides, do not forget the prestige behind these large aerospace projects.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:50 am

I don't think people understand why the 777LR planes have such powerful engines and it is leading them to make mistakes regarding the 350 engines.

The 772A can fly with 77k engines and take it over 5000nm.

The 773A can fly with 90-98k engines (depending on brand) and fly 6000nm.

The 772ER uses those same 90-98k engines to fly 7700nm.

The 773ER uses 115k engines to fly those 7700nm.

The 772LR uses those 115k engines (derated to 110k) to fly 9400nm.

What's my point? In a large twin, all the power is needed to carry the FUEL, not the weight of the plane, on a single engine take-off.

So, you can decrease the weight of the 359 to 20% below a 772 (the 787-10 will be lighter than the 772 as well), but that only takes you so far, because unless you have a great leap in engine efficiency, you still need to carry a lot of fuel to get you FURTHER than the 772ER/773ER (in order to "kill" them).

95k might suit a 772 sized "killer" and take it 9000nm with a heavy payload. But with only 80k, you aren't going to get there. Which is why the 787-10, using the currently defined GEnx or Trent families for the 787, can only make it 7500nm or so. Those extra 1500nm cost ALOT (see above).

Maybe, maybe Airbus can get a 95k engine to serve the 350-1000 well if they only want to match the 773ER range at a slightly lower payload if the airfram and engines are truly more efficient, but I would imagine they need at least 105k to carry enough fuel to fly 8500nm+.

Since so much of the 350 performance will be based on engines and using lighter materials, there is absolutely nothing preventing Boeing from having GE build the GEnx2 to replace the GE90 for use on the 787-10 and a lightened version of the 773ER. Since the GEnx uses GE90 technologies and applies more efficient pieces to it, while making more extensive use of composites, this technology can be reapplied to the larger GE90 sized engine, with a larger fan.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
It could, however, possibly be used on the 772 and the 787-10, both of which will compete with the new A350-900.

Correct. If Airbus is getting it's efficiency from the engine (which was their claim about the 787 at first), then you can "350ize" the 777 family in response. Unless Airbus is truly ready to change the way they think about building airframes, they can only gain a temporary advantage. It won't be a "leap-frog" move for very long.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
PolymerPlane
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:51 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 17):
Al-Li is as light as composites

Where did you get this information? A350 as we know right now uses Al-Li extensively yet it is 10-20 tons heavier than 787.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 17):
You make the frame 20% lighter (easy to do with an all new program)

Yeah, the program can make alloys 20% lighter  Yeah sure. The fact is that B777 was already designed by utilizing computer programs, and you cannot change the material properties and physics of aerodynamics with computer programs.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 17):
the engines 10% more efficient

I remembered when Airbus was proposing A345/6E, Airbus cheerleaders were making stink about the possibility of using the more efficient GEnX core to the 777 thrust ratings. Now when A350 sizes to 777 class, suddenly it is possible to get this efficiency. There is nothing to prevent GE from developed more efficient engine for the improved version of 773ER

Cheers,
PP
One day there will be 100% polymer plane
 
katekebo
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RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:54 am

Quoting CptGermany (Reply 33):
Katekebo, this statement is true. However, I do not see the connection to the government loans Airbus receives for new aircraft projects.

I appreciate your fair and balanced point of view.

There is no doubt that the launch aids that EU governments provided for the A320, 330 and 340 programs were a good investment. The return on investment on the A380 is still to be seen - current outlook does not look rosey, but hopefully this will change with time.

However, the reality is that today Airbus will not be able to afford the A3?0 development without some kind of launch aid. EADS has to pay off BAE ($3b) and the A380 delays will have a negative impact of another $2b over the next three years. With the stock value where it is now EADS will have hard time securing private loans - there is not enough equity in the company shares to offer a good guarantee for a private loan with favorable interest rates.

The difference with previous programs is that American administration is very sensitized to the subject and will react. Does EU want to "scratch the balls of a sleeping tiger"? Who knows - they may take a calculated risk hoping that the Bush administration will negotiate in exchange for other "favors".
 
Tangowhisky
Posts: 665
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:26 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:58 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 31):
think the two fuselage width idea is the best way for Airbus to go at this point, assuming the want to tackle both the 777 and 787.

Exactly. One size fits all does not work for the common A330/A340 barrel now that Airbus has to compete against the 787 and 777. This is why Boeing made an entire new fuse for the 787 to replace the 767 market requirements more efficiently than a short-cut shrunken 777 for example. One option would be to make an A350 as the same fuse diameter as the A330 to compete against the 787, and the wider A370 competing against the 777 market segment. Look at Boeing, they currently have 3 widebody fuselage designs: 767, 777, and 747 and it worked well.
Only the paranoid survive
 
CptGermany
Posts: 85
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 7:50 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:15 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 36):
I appreciate your fair and balanced point of view.

Thanks.  Smile

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 36):
The difference with previous programs is that American administration is very sensitized to the subject and will react.

This is true. I guess it will be interesting to see this development. However, in general I think that currently there are a few other issues that are more important on the U.S.' political agenda, but it might be an important issue during the next election in 2+ years.
 
NASOCEANA
Posts: 277
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:40 pm

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:20 am

I think Airbus is going in the wrong direction. They should build an aircraft that Boeing will have to take on, rather than building a aircraft that will take on existing Boeing aircraft!

Just my 2 cent!
B777 greatest Airliner ever built!
 
katekebo
Posts: 678
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2001 12:02 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:26 am

Quoting CptGermany (Reply 39):
However, in general I think that currently there are a few other issues that are more important on the U.S.' political agenda, but it might be an important issue during the next election in 2+ years.

One important aspect of American politics is that the government and its policies are really run by the large corporations. Lobbying is extremely powerfull, and it is the large corporation who fund political campains and consquently put their people in key positions to protect their interests.

The Boeing case is important to America not only because of the specific perceived harm that it is doing to one company, but because it is a in the interest of all American industries to set the right precedent. So while the Bush administration may have other political interests that the Europeans could exploit to apeace American claims, large corporations will stand behind Boeing and demand the government to protect their interests.
 
rpaillard
Posts: 417
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:57 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:28 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 32):
EU governments are considering rising the retirement age

Those here in Europe and in France that state that it's possible to work less for the same income and that it's a shame to even think to postpone retirement age are nothing but politician. There a word for that: demagogy

Quoting CptGermany (Reply 33):
However, I do not see the connection to the government loans Airbus receives for new aircraft projects

I of course have to second that.

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 36):
I appreciate your fair and balanced point of view

 checkmark 

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 31):
I think the two fuselage width idea is the best way for Airbus to go at this point

I do not see Airbus doing that. After all, it will be a wide, just as the 787. I personnaly think that it's to expensive and worthless.

One more time, engine is the key. At the end of the day, Airbus needs to rely on engine manufacturer to rise a killer.
FLY SKYTEAM JETS
 
RichardPrice
Posts: 4474
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 5:12 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:49 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 35):
Yeah, the program can make alloys 20% lighter Yeah sure. The fact is that B777 was already designed by utilizing computer programs, and you cannot change the material properties and physics of aerodynamics with computer programs.

Actually you can, as our understanding of them changes. We dont know everything, and what we dont know we cant put into computer code.

As our understanding of alloys and aerodynamics are refined, more efficient designs can be made.
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:54 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 18):
Care to remember BAE buy-out and the $2b profit gap due to A380 delays? I don't think Airbus/EADS look particularly strong from cashflow standpoint over the next 3 years

They currently print some 6 billion Euros a year in profit.

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 20):

LMAO.

Laugh all you want, you've contributed nothing to this conversation.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 35):
Where did you get this information? A350 as we know right now uses Al-Li extensively yet it is 10-20 tons heavier than 787.

Um, Boeing? They stated themselves that they had more than sufficient response from the aluminum industry, but they decided that the future was composites for other asundry reasons.

The structure of the current A350 was still going to be the same as it always was.

N
 
7cubed
Posts: 121
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:02 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:56 am

Quoting LY777 (Reply 11):
Frm where will Airbus have money to develop 3 new planes?

If you are French, I would assume you'll be paying for it! Some anyways.  Smile

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 15):
Why do people always ask this?

Maybe from their MASSIVE profits and cash flow?

That being the case why would a established entity like Airbus need launch aid?
joe
 
PolymerPlane
Posts: 832
Joined: Thu May 11, 2006 1:12 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:56 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 43):

I know that, but not by 20%. A 20% improvement from computer designed 777, just because of computer design is impossible to do. Look at 787 and 767 comparison, the aerodynamics according to Boeing will just improve the efficiency by 5%, and CFRP by 5% IIRC, very far from the 20%. This is from hand drawn 767 design to all CAD 787.
Airbus must have a magical spell computer to be able to get 20% just because of CAD when compared to 777. The fact is that 777 is a modern aircraft, not a 1970 design.

Cheers,
PP
One day there will be 100% polymer plane
 
astuteman
Posts: 6340
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:59 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 35):
Quoting Gigneil (Reply 17):
Al-Li is as light as composites

Where did you get this information? A350 as we know right now uses Al-Li extensively yet it is 10-20 tons heavier than 787.

FWIW, I think a fair proportion of that weight difference is down to the "single piece" construction as much as the presence of the "composites" themselves.

You might recall some discussion recently on joint effeciencies and how they tend to increase material thickness. No joints, no increase.

In that respect, Gigneil might well be right.

I also guess that's why Airbus only believe that a composite fuselage would only save 500kg off the "old" A350.

(Not sure how that helps Airbus BTW, unless they go to one piece alloy fuselage sections  Smile )

Regards
 
travelin man
Posts: 3198
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting CptGermany (Reply 29):
So threatening with trade wars would be highly inappropriate and counterproductive for the overall political interests of the U.S. In other words, Boeing would just have to deal with it, get down to work and build some good competition aircraft, which I am certain they will be able to do if necessary.

I was responding to the poster that said Airbus would be able to pay for the development of this family of planes with the "massive" cash flow and profits they are getting. Well then that is great for Airbus! No loans needed! Or are you saying that of course Airbus will need more government loans to get these planes off the ground?

Which is it?
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting 7cubed (Reply 45):
That being the case why would a established entity like Airbus need launch aid?

Who says they do? The point is they CAN, and no responsible businessman would pass up legally protected supremely favorable financing.

N
 
DIA
Posts: 3053
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 2:24 pm

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 7:07 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 49):
Who says they do? The point is they CAN, and no responsible businessman would pass up legally protected supremely favorable financing.


Good point.
Business 101: Use other people's money...not your own.

[Edited 2006-07-15 00:08:17]
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
saturn5
Posts: 308
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:49 pm

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 7:08 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 49):
Who says they do?

Very true, with a slight qualifier. They don't need launch aid when they go after a sound business case (like say with A320 or A350), they do need however a launch aid when a project is very dubious from the start (A380).
 
7cubed
Posts: 121
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:02 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:19 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 49):
Who says they do?

Where've been for the last, say, 3 years? I assume you're not familiar with the us vs eu subsidies WTO case.

This topic has been beat to death and I'm not trying to deflect away from the thread starter. The wto will take care of the details, our opinions mean little to the case. Personally, I say let the governments subsidize and see who has the deeper pockets. My money's on the home team.

I'm sorry, I found another discrepancy in your post. you used the phrase "responsible businessman" - With that do you mean Noel Forgeard?

And the term "legal" is currently under dispute.
joe
 
trex8
Posts: 4576
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 10:03 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 36):
EADS has to pay off BAE ($3b)

minus the 1 billion plus that BAe apparently owe Airbus and if the Rothschild valuation is correct could actually as some other threads have discussed make BAe not want to be bought out at this point in time as they will be lucky to go home with 1.5billion.

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 41):
One important aspect of American politics is that the government and its policies are really run by the large corporations. Lobbying is extremely powerfull, and it is the large corporation who fund political campains and consquently put their people in key positions to protect their interests.

well that worked real well for Boeing on the KC767 didn't it! they need new lobbyists! or better yet just not try to screw the government and taxpayer quite as much as they tried. the American people and Congress are generous enough to be willing to fork out a little more than they should for certain things if its a good enough reason, but when you try to royally stick it to them, they react !
 
RAPCON
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2006 7:20 am

RE: Airbus Eyes 3 New Planes To Battle Boeing

Sat Jul 15, 2006 10:14 am

Quoting LY777 (Reply 11):
Frm where will Airbus have money to develop 3 new planes?

If they think that they're going to get one of those typical "sweetheart" loans that you and I can't get, then EADS is going to be facing the biggest WTO sactions in history.
MODS CAN'T STOP ME....THEY CAN ONLY HOPE TO CONTAIN ME!!!

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